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Ethnic/Tribal Dynamics & Formal/Informal Networks
Purpose
Provide Pre-Mission Training Perspectives & Mission Context
“Who Cares?”
Why It Matters
COINFID
2002
2014ZERO
OPTION?!>2014
RISKAUTHORITIES ACCESS/PLACEMENTTRUSTEXPECTATIONSRESOURCES
Long Term FID
Your Timeline
BY, WITH, THROUGH
Layers of Identity
5
(INDIVIDUAL) SELF
(NUCLEAR) FAMILY
EXTENDED FAMILY / CLANETHNIC GROUP
NEIGHBORHOOD / BOROUGH COUNTY / PARISH
NATION / COUNTRY
RELIGION / BELIEF SYSTEM SECT / DENOMINATION
POLITICAL PARTY
CLUB / SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP
TRIBE / LOCALITY
TOWN / CITY
UNIVERSITY
Understanding Afghan Identities
khannawada or khel (family or lineage)
manteqah / deh / qarriya (region or village)
qawm / wulus(tribe)
tyfah(tribe/ethnicity)
watan (nation)
khood
Most important
Least important
(individual “self”)
Religion permeates
Tribal State of MindStatus Contract
Clan Individual
Honor Achievement
Revenge ROL
Ext Family Nuke Family
Feud Trial
Con Res:RestoreRelationship
Con Res:Right/Wrong
Feelings/Perceptions
“It’s Just Business”These Local Realities Won’t Change Quickly
Population – Centric COIN is
awesome!!!
Islam UnderAttack
Don’t Talk a/b Religion
Top Down Approach
Rural Issues Matter!!!
Historical Stability Realities are Key
Ethnic Tensions
Pashtun Insurgency
Pashtun Tribal Systems
Where we are Today!!!
Gap
BALANCE
Demographics of Afghanistan AFG Total Population: ~ 30 million
Includes approx. 2.7 million refugees in Pakistan and Iran
Does not include global expats: Approx. 3.4 million
Approx. 55 ethnic groups
Approx. 65 languages/dialects
Asia’s 4th most ethnically fractionalized country (After Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and India
Ethnic Distribution
Ethnic groups by District (Districts with largest group; percentages are from CIA World Factbook and The Asia Foundation)
Ethnicities % of Population Pashtun 36.4% to 42.0% Tajik 27.0% to 38.1% Hazara 9.0% to 18.9% Uzbek 6.0% to 6.8% Turkmen 1.7 to 3.0% Baloch 0.5% to 4.0% Nuristani 1.9% to 9.2% Pashai See above Others See above
Source: Louis Dupree, Afghanistan (Princeton University Press, 1973)
Uzbek Demographics Afghanistan's fourth largest ethnic group (3
million) and 9% of the total population
Reside primarily in northern regions (esp. Faryab, Jowzjan, and Balkh)
Less affected by large-scale war and destruction with Russia and Taliban than others
Most live in villages with Tajik neighbors; resent Pashtuns who made them a minority by 1960s
Part of the “Northern Alliance”12
Hazara Demographics 2.5 million, 9% of the total population No external ethnic links
Primarily Shia, Dari speakers
Population centered in the Hazarajat
Discriminated throughout history, especially by Pashtuns and Insurgency
13
Tajik Demographics
Account for 25-30% of total population; settled versus nomadic or semi-nomadic
Civil servants, better-educated
Cultural ties to Iran and Tajikistan
Tajik social organization/identity defined by manteqah (area) versus tribe; i.e. Badakhshani, Baghlani, Mazari, Panjshiri, Kabuli, Herati, Shomaliyar, Kohistani, etc.
Part of “Northern alliance”/opposition to Karzai government 14
Pashtun Demographics
15
Largest (egalitarian) segmentary tribal group in the world Largest group in Afghanistan
- 40 to 42% of total pop.
28 million in Pakistan FATA, KPK, Baluchistan, Karachi
Majority of the Insurgency
Traditionally provided the monarch “Right to Rule”
Human Domain FID Framework
Types of Pashtuns Confederations Sub-Confederations Tribes Local Dynamics (People and Process)
Pashtun Social Organization
Nang: Tribal Code, Egalitarian, Segmentary Qalang: Settled, Feudal, Hierarchical Three Types of Tribes:
- Qaumi: Egalitarian, Leader does not have real power, Jirga carries the day
- Rutbavi: Hierarchical, Feudalism, Greater Leader Influence
- Kuchi: Nomadic and Very Egalitarian*These Social Considerations Influence Pashtun Behavior at Local Levels (ALP, Commandos, Development)
*Extremely Powerful Pashtun Leaders Can’t Rely on Just Tribal Networks
Pashtun Tribal Confederations
18
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NOTE: The Hill Tribes live on both sides of the Durand Line and populate Khost, Paktia and Paktika Provinces (aka Loya Paktiya).
NOTE: Many Ghilzai (aka Ghiljai) remain nomadic (“Kuchi” ); DNA. testing suggests strong Turkish influence or mixture. Some Ghilzai claim ties to a Burhan orTuran branch
NOTE: Durrani dominate Kandahar,and HelmandThe Afghan monarchy Have always been Durrani --- first thruThe Saddozai thenlater Barakzai-Mohammadzai clan.
“HILL TRIBES”
KARLANRI
ZIRAK PANJPAO
Barakzai
Nurzai
Alizai
Ishaqzai
Mohammadzai
Achakzai
Popalzai
Alikozai
Saddozai
Amadzai
NasirAndar
AlikhelHotaki
Jaji
Suleiman Khel
Kharoti
Tokhi
Taraki
Kharufi
LodiNiazi
Suri
NuraniLohani
GHURGHUSHT
Musa Khel
Gadun
Panri
Kakar
Luni
Tor Tarin
Spin Tarin
EASTERN
SARBANI
SOUTHERN
NOTE:Nearly all
GhurghushtPashtun liveEast - South
of the Durand Line
Sulaiman
BannuchisDaur
(Dawar)
KODAY KAKAY
Orakzai
Utman Khel
Malikmar
Bangash
KhattakMangal
ZadranMakhbil
Khugiani
TuriJaji (Zazi)
Wardak
Wazir
Amadzai
MehsudGurbuz
Utmanzai
Shinwari
Daudzai
KasiZamand
Mohmands
Khalils
Ghoriah Khakhay
Tarklanris
Muk
Mand
Umars Yusufzais
Khweshgis
Ketrans
Kasis
Safi
Kand
Farmuli
Afridi
Jowaki Adam Khel
NOTE: The Sarbani, or Eastern Pashtun, live in, around, and east of Jalalabad and south of Nuristan and the Konar River.
The tiny Pashai minority live between the Sarbani and the Nuristani.
GHILZAI
BITTANI
Bakakhel
KabulkhelJanikhel
WESTERNDURRANI (ABDALI)
PASHTUN TRIBAL CONFEDERATIONS AND MAJOR CLANS
SOUTHEASTERN
sarhadi (“frontier” or “borderlands”) Pashtuns
Unclassified
Local Dynamics
Ethnic and Tribalism as context
Expect mix of human domain and other networks
Relationships, people, and process
Analyze all lines of operations (Sources of Instability)
Learning never stops (Point of Entry)
BUILDING TRUST, NEGOTIATION, MEDIATION, AND INFLUENCE = FID TRADECRAFT
Key Takeaways Rules have changed:
-Think persistent FID Timeline- By, With, and Through
Understand/Work through local realities
Mindset: Society of Status
Achieve effects through a framework of understanding and remote area FID tradecraft
Religious/Mujahideen Networks
Major Insurgent Groups (1982)
Peshawar Seven
Burhanuddin Rabbani
Younis Khalis
Mohammad Nabi Mohammadi
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar
Abdur Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Pir Sayyid Ahmed Gailani
Sibghatullah Mojaddedi
Mujahideen GroupsLeader Party Supporters Orientation Notes
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar
Hizb-e Islam Eastern Pashtuns, Pashai, Nuristanis,(Konar, Nuristani, Laghman, Kunduz)
Islamist b. 1947 – Insurgent Leader
Younis Khalis Hizb-e Islam Khalis
Eastern Pashtuns (Nangarhar)
Islamist 1999 – 2006
Burhanuddin Rabbani Jamiat-e Islami Tajiks and Uzbeks (Panjshir and Northern Alliance)
Islamist 1940 - 2012
Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf
Ittehad-al Islami KSA, Gulf states, Ikwan al-Muslimeen
Islamist (Wahhabi) b. 1946 –Presidential Candidate
Mohammad Nabi Mohammadi
Harakat-e Inqilib-e Islam
Eastern and Southern Pashtuns (Logar)
Traditionalist (village-based) & Islamist
1920 - 2002
Pir Sayyid Ahmed Gailani
Mahaz Mille Islami
Nationalist/Pro-Democracy Pashtuns, Qadiri tariqat
Nationalist / Royalist, pro-West
b. 1932 -
Sibghatullah Mojaddedi
Jabhe Mille Nejad
Nationalist Pashtuns, Nasqhbandi tariqat
Nationalist / Royalist
b. 1926 -
26
Formal Governance: Kabul-linked
Ethnicity and Politics
27
PGOV
Provincial
District &Village
National
Provincial
AFGHAN PEOPLE
DDA
CDC
CDC
Provincial Council
ELECTS
Elected Appointed
Wolesi Jirga
DCOP
NDS
PCOP
NDS
Ministers
ODA, SEAL, MSOT, PAT, DAT,
CAT
MAG
SOFLE
NCMOC
DGOV
ELECTS
President
Line Directors
Meshrano Jirga
Summary Ethnic identity impacts almost everything
else Politics (the way Afghans vote) Security (ethnic friction and warlords/local militias) Development (perceptions of favoritism or
marginalization)
Tribal society in Afghanistan is segmentary not hierarchical (as it is in Iraq) power and authority are more dispersed
Understanding ethnic groups as important as understanding tribes Forging a national identity key to future stability Regional/cross-border influence and future impact
29
Resources
Afghan Tribal Dynamics – Dave Phillips Jirgas – Khan Idris Rule of the Clan – Mark Weiner The World Until Yesterday – Jared Diamond Getting More – Stuart Diamond Tribal Analysis Center (
www.tribalanalysiscenter.com) Stability Institute (www.stabilityinstitute.com) TLO (www.theliaisonoffice.com)
