ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for September 16 2011

8/4/2019 ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for September 16 2011

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The S&P 500 finished the week up more than 5% recovering its losses from the week prior. The US economy is a zombie

with the very real risk of a negative GDP quarter while Europe wonders how to get enough consensus and political courage

to solve its sovereign debt problems. Our prediction that markets would bounce from tested lows however was correct

and the markets finished with a strong week. The news flow was full of meetings and comments by government leaders

about a commitment to stable markets and support for the Euro. The fundamentals however havent changed as Greece

is insolvent and there is risk in Spain and Italy. Now that markets have rallied to the channel median line the majority of

risk is to the downside. A possible head and shoulders pattern is also in play. Something will need to change in either

direction to end this sideways pattern. Talk of lower earnings by US and Global corporations could be the weight that tipsthe scales. Visit my technical analysis blog for more information at http://www.sealionllc.com

Rally to Resistance and a Selloff?

Chart #1SPY, SPDR S&P 500

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ated. Visit our website www.sealionllc.com for more ETF technical analysis, Forex technical analysis

and thoughts on ETF position trading and Forex position trading. We maintain a technical analysis

blog and demonstrate ETF expertise and Forex expertise. You can get more information on our part-

ners there as well.

This chart book is for educational purposes only and not a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

09/17/2011Volume 1, Issue 22

Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

Chart Book

Chart Notes

Possible lower high with shooting star candle

Prices are now above the median line of the bullish channel

and have found short-term resistance.

Prices rally through resistance and out of the channel. A

consolidation will be required before the next move up.

No consolidation yet as prices are rising along channel

resistance.

Prices retreat to prior resistance now support for

consolidation

Prices testing lower channel support and need to reverse

quickly to maintain the rally

Prices could be back testing setting up a move lower but

more likely the channel needs to be redrawn or this is a

temporary noisy overshoot.

Prices have no violated the channel support and are trying a

back test. The back looks weak in nature.

Prices have broken through the channel and head lower

gyrating around their median line.

Prices have exceeded their channel but consolidated and

stopped under prior channel support. This bull trap will

reverse shortly.

Prices under old support line from prior channel and at

resistance of redrawn channel.

With resistance tested and in place prices have moved

lower and begin their move to the bottom of the channel.

Prices move aggressively half way across the channel and

are driving toward channel bottom.

Prices reached channel bottom and have bounced. The

hammer bottom should hold and prices should rise from

here.

Prices are gyrating sideways and forming a base from which

they can bounce. The bounce may be short lived.

Prices overshot channel and horizontal support but another

hammer should start the rally back across the channel.

The bottom is in. The inverted head and shoulders pattern

is complete and prices have taken out the highs of the

consolidation.

Rally has comes swiftly and may leave just as quickly. I am

keeping this momentum on a short leash.

Market rolls over and settles at near term prior lows. If we

get a bounce here a channel may form.

Markets rally to the median line

Markets selloff but quickly return to the median line again.

Chance to break out of this channel and gain market

confidence. A move to the downside will reinforce the

markets sense of misery.

Misery is here

An upward sloping channel has formed and through time

may break out the downward sloping channel.

Testing channel lows again.

Rally to the channel median line presents potential

resistance.
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Page 2 Sea Lion Capital Management LLC

Prices continue to move sideways but have cleared the broad down sloping channel. The rally to

the median line increases the risk of downside here especially if a head and shoulders pattern is

forming. Sideways cant last very long.

Chart #2IWM, iShares Russell 2000 Chart Notes: Possible change in trend needs confirmation with a

new high.

Prices are now in the upper half of the bullish channel

and have more room to run.

Prices have continued up and no extend beyond the

channel. Prices will need to consolidate before the

next leg higher.

Prices rising along resistance.

A return to former resistance now turned support. A

mild consolidation has begun.

Testing the median line. Price often finds support

here.

Prices found support at the median line and are poised

to move higher.

Prices are holding their channel support and a bounce

may occur.

Prices have broken channel support and are falling

around the median line.

Price have stopped at channel resistance but need to

reverse to maintain the downtrend channel.

Prices at the apex of old support now resistance and

the current channel resistance. Prices will reverse

soon.

Prices failed to hold their afternoon rally and are now

moving lower.

Prices gapped lower and may now challenge the lower

portion of the channel.

Having found the bottom of the channel and bounced

with a hammer prices should rise from here in the

near term.

Prices are bouncing around support and forming the

base necessary to move higher.

Prices put in another hammer ad tiis one should

stick and prices should move higher from here

The bottom is in. An inverted head and shoulders

pattern is complete and the highs of the consolidation

have been taken out.

Rally has comes swiftly and may leave just as quickly.

I am keeping this momentum on a short leash.

At prior near term lowstesting support area

Bounce to the media line

Formed new channel and moving sideways across the

down-sloping channel

New high and breakout of down sloping channel.

Follow through could result in breakout.

Rollover into channelnow testing median line

Back-testing down sloping channel

Rallied to the median line
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Page 3Volume 1, Issue 22

Prices have rallied short of the median line and sold off. A little more rally may be left but the

median line may prove strong resistance. Sentiment rather than fundamentals is driving the Euro at

the moment. Pessimism over the Euro zone will continue to weigh on the pair over time.

Chart# 3EUR/USD, Eurodollar Chart Notes: Markets bullish trend broken with violation of

prior swing low.

Markets bounces and reverses but puts in a

lower high.

Market retests $1.40 low and if it holds a

sideways channel is in place.

Prices reverse on support in an evening star

reversal in a show of strength and the

markets wiliness to be open to risk.

Prices have failed to advance the reversal and

are now below the reversal high. A retest of

lower channel support looks likely.

Prices made a dead-cat bounce and will head

lower to range support.

Prices have edged higher but are still below t he

median line and are poised to reverse.

Prices rallied just short of the prior high and

have begun to possibly reverse. A reversal

would correlate with a downturn in equities.

The Euro strengthens against a weak dollar and

mild concern over the US debt ceiling crisis.

Prices will reverse shortly.

Prices reversed hard today and a new

downtrend has begun.

Prices paused in their move down but this is

temporary as the next moves are lower.

Prices finished lower but have not closed low er

than the lows of last week. A break of the

median line will accelerate the selloff.

Watch for a short term bounce at the median

line before prices continue lower.

Prices have returned to the media line with the

focus off the US debt ceiling and squarely on

Ital y and Spain. Lower Euro will continue.

Price continues to dance along the median line.

As near term momentum continues to slow it

will setup the next more dramatic mov e to the

downside.

Prices have bounced on the media line but no

significant new high was made. Lower prices

ahead.

Prices at the extreme top of the channel.

Lower prices should start now.

Prices roll over quick to the median line

Price now testing the bottom of the channel. A

bounce is likely.

Rally off the bottom but a big sell off as price

approached the median line
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ETF Technical Analysis and Forex Technical Analysis Chart Book for September 16 2011