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Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 85 Broad Street New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
Technical Analysis A division of Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.
Ari H. Wald, CFA, CMT Technical Analysis (212) 667-5279 [email protected]
November 23, 2015
Technical Analysis: Inflection Points
Discretionary and Industrials in Focus
Tactical signals remain mixed (i.e., positive seasonals vs. narrow participation), but we side with large-cap strength and accordingly expect the S&P 500 to maintain a bid into year-end ahead of fresh rounds of contained volatility in Q1’16.
We see this as a cyclical pause amid a secular advance where big-cap growth areas, like Technology, pull the cap-weighted index higher while bouts of commodity-themed weakness act as a headwind due to ongoing US dollar gains.
Only 33% of NYSE stocks are in an uptrend, indicating 1) fuel for a market bounce but also 2) heightened risk of additional volatility once these stocks become overbought in broken trends. A new S&P high above 2134 is likely to go unconfirmed by this breadth measure in the coming weeks and, consequently, would likely mark a tactical sell signal, in our view.
Industry/ETFs mentioned: Aerospace & Defense, Internet & Catalog Retail, Machinery, Media, Multiline Retail, FDN, IWN, MTUM, RCD, XLY.
Highlighted picks with a confirming MAER score
Buy and Sell ratings for the entire S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector are listed in the report. Highlighted ideas with a confirming earnings revisions score include:
o Buy: AZO, DHI, GT, HD, IPG, PCLN, SBUX. o Sell: CBS, COH, DISCK, FOXA, OMC, PVH, TIF.
Buy and Sell ratings for the entire S&P 500 Industrials sector are listed in the report. Highlighted ideas with a confirming earnings revisions score include:
o Buy: CTAS, EFX, MAS, ROP, SNA. o Sell: DOV, EMR, ETN, FAST, KSU, PH, ROK.
MAER is a stock screening tool based on trends in earnings revisions.
2
November 23, 2015
Unconfirmed New High: Next Likely Sell Signal
Tactical signals remain mixed (i.e., positive seasonals vs. narrow participation), but we side with large-cap strength and accordingly expect the S&P 500 to maintain a bid into year-end ahead of fresh rounds of contained volatility in Q1’16. Only 33% of NYSE stocks are in an uptrend, indicating 1) fuel for a market bounce but also 2) heightened risk of additional volatility once these stocks become overbought in broken trends. A new S&P high above 2134 is likely to go unconfirmed by this breadth measure in the coming weeks and, consequently, would likely mark a tactical sell signal, in our view.
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
S&P 500 w/ 200-day m.a.
New highs likely to be unconfirmed by internal breadth
2134
NYSE Stocks Above 200-Day Mov. Avg.
?
Technical Analysis
3
November 23, 2015
Bifurcated Performance to Continue
We don’t expect stock-level weakness to spread broadly, and a steep and prolonged market decline should therefore be avoided because the secular environment is bullish and near-zero interest rate policy should help postpone the next economic recession, by our analysis. We instead believe market action will continue to be characterized by bifurcated performance over the coming months, and potentially quarters, due to a growing list of stock-level breakdowns and the likely need to move sideways following four undisturbed years of gains. As a result, we recommend buying leadership areas, like FDN, on weakness, and selling laggards, like IWN, on strength.
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Relative to the S&P 500
Bullish? Buy FDN
Relative to the S&P 500
Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN): Buy iShares Russell 2000 Value (IWN): Sell
Bearish? Sell IWN
Technical Analysis
4
November 23, 2015
Opportunity to Buy Momentum (MTUM)
Relative to the S&P 500, the iShares Momentum ETF (MTUM) has corrected to the bullish slope of its smoothed trend which we define as a tactical buy signal. We see $70.50 as near-term support and ultimately expect a breakout above $74.50 resistance.
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
We view near-term weakness amid long-term strength as a tactical buying opportunity
iShares MSCI Momentum ETF (MTUM)
Relative to S&P 500
Both panels w/ 200-day m.a.
Technical Analysis
5
November 23, 2015
Cons Disc: Cap wgt (XLY) over Equal wgt (RCD)
We maintain our Overweight ranking of the Consumer Discretionary sector and, as a reflection of the market as a whole, strength has been concentrated in the largest capitalized stocks while the equal-weighted version of the sector has come under pressure. Analogous to our market preference for the highest rung of the capitalization ladder, we recommend buying the cap-weighted Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) over the equal-weighted Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD).
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Relative to the S&P 500
Cap-weighted stronger than equal-weighted…
Relative to the S&P 500
Cons Discretionary SPDR (XLY) Cons Discretionary Equal-Weight ETF (RCD)
…We expect this to continue.
Technical Analysis
6
November 23, 2015
Tactical Trade Is to Sell Media
Relative to Consumer Discretionary at the industry level, Internet & Catalog Retail (AMZN, EXPE, NFLX, PCLN) has been established leadership, and while tactically overbought, we expect this strength to continue over the long term. Conversely, Multiline Retail (JWN, KSS, M, TGT) has been an established laggard, and while it is tactically oversold, we don’t see signs that this underperformance is abating. Tactically, we see an opportunity to sell Media (CBS, DISCK, FOXA, OMC, SNI, VIAB) which is bouncing into resistance on a relative basis. Buy and Sell ratings for the entire sector are listed on the following pages along with the charts for our top momentum-based ideas.
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Tactical trade is to sell Media
Internet & Catalog Retail vs. Cons Discretionary
Media vs. Cons Discretionary
w/ 200-day m.a.
Multiline Retail vs. Cons Discretionary
Buy dips
Sell rallies
Technical Analysis
7
November 23, 2015
S&P 500 Cons Discretionary: Buys
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Ticker Name
Trend
Rating MAER
MO
score Industry
Mkt Cap
($mm)
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC Buy 3 99 Internet & Catalog Retail 311,042
SBUX STARBUCKS CORP Buy 3 99 Hotels Restaurants & Leisure 91,761
NKE NIKE INC -CL B Buy 3 98 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo 107,189
ORLY O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC Buy 3 97 Specialty Retail 26,574
EXPE EXPEDIA INC Buy 3 94 Internet & Catalog Retail 16,269
TWC TIME WARNER CABLE Buy -3 94 Media 52,332
AZO AUTOZONE INC Buy 3 93 Specialty Retail 23,881
HD HOME DEPOT INC Buy 3 91 Specialty Retail 162,490
UA UNDER ARMOUR INC-CLASS A Buy -1 90 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo 18,841
AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC Buy 3 90 Specialty Retail 12,043
GT GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO Buy 3 90 Auto Components 8,995
NFLX NETFLIX INC Buy -3 89 Internet & Catalog Retail 51,556
MCD MCDONALD'S CORP Buy 1 88 Hotels Restaurants & Leisure 103,328
MHK MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC Buy 3 87 Household Durables 13,971
NWL NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC Buy 3 86 Household Durables 11,779
LB L BRANDS INC Buy 1 85 Specialty Retail 26,782
RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD Buy 3 84 Hotels Restaurants & Leisure 20,717
PCLN PRICELINE GROUP INC/THE Buy 3 83 Internet & Catalog Retail 63,649
CMCSK COMCAST CORP-SPECIAL CL A Buy -3 80 Media 153,366
SIG SIGNET JEWELERS LTD Buy 3 80 Specialty Retail 11,190
DHI DR HORTON INC Buy 3 79 Household Durables 11,751
CMCSA COMCAST CORP-CLASS A Buy -3 76 Media 153,366
HRB H&R BLOCK INC Buy 2 76 Diversified Consumer Services 10,153
DLPH DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC Buy -1 75 Auto Components 22,987
LOW LOWE'S COS INC Buy -3 75 Specialty Retail 67,986
TSCO TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY Buy 3 74 Specialty Retail 11,842
IPG INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COS INC Buy 3 71 Media 9,395
LEN LENNAR CORP-A Buy 3 71 Household Durables 10,353
AN AUTONATION INC Buy 3 65 Specialty Retail 7,022
MAER is a stock screening tool based on trends in earnings rev isions. MAER ratings range from established negative -3 to established positive +3.
MO is a composite score (scaled 0-100) based on a stock's 6, 9, and 12-month risk-adjusted return lagged 1 month.
Technical Analysis
8
November 23, 2015
S&P 500 Cons Discretionary: Sells
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Ticker Name
Trend
Rating MAER
MO
score Industry
Mkt Cap
($mm)
TGT TARGET CORP Sell 3 61 Multiline Retail 43,852
MAR MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL -CL A Sell 3 53 Hotels Restaurants & Leisure 18,572
BBY BEST BUY CO INC Sell 3 53 Specialty Retail 10,795
OMC OMNICOM GROUP Sell -1 48 Media 17,658
PVH PVH CORP Sell -1 42 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo 7,393
TIF TIFFANY & CO Sell -3 34 Specialty Retail 9,596
HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC Sell -1 33 Automobiles 9,549
DISCA DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS-A Sell -3 31 Media 19,607
JWN NORDSTROM INC Sell -1 30 Multiline Retail 10,473
FOX TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX - B Sell -3 30 Media 59,932
URBN URBAN OUTFITTERS INC Sell -3 28 Specialty Retail 2,732
MAT MATTEL INC Sell -3 27 Leisure Products 8,263
DISCK DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS-C Sell -3 27 Media 19,607
SPLS STAPLES INC Sell -3 25 Specialty Retail 7,794
FOXA TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX-A Sell -3 23 Media 59,932
COH COACH INC Sell -3 18 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo 8,212
M MACY'S INC Sell -3 17 Multiline Retail 12,236
BBBY BED BATH & BEYOND INC Sell -3 16 Specialty Retail 9,027
RL RALPH LAUREN CORP Sell -3 16 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo 10,112
BWA BORGWARNER INC Sell -3 13 Auto Components 9,555
KSS KOHLS CORP Sell -3 9 Multiline Retail 8,782
FOSL FOSSIL GROUP INC Sell -3 9 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goo 1,703
CBS CBS CORP-CLASS B NON VOTING Sell -3 9 Media 24,416
SNI SCRIPPS NETWORKS INTER-CL A Sell 3 7 Media 7,282
VIAB VIACOM INC-CLASS B Sell -3 5 Media 21,138
GPS GAP INC/THE Sell -3 4 Specialty Retail 10,327
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LTD Sell -3 2 Hotels Restaurants & Leisure 6,227
MAER is a stock screening tool based on trends in earnings rev isions. MAER ratings range from established negative -3 to established positive +3.
MO is a composite score (scaled 0-100) based on a stock's 6, 9, and 12-month risk-adjusted return lagged 1 month.
Technical Analysis
9
November 23, 2015
Buy: AZO, HD, NFLX, PCLN
Netflix (NFLX)
Home Depot (HD)
Priceline Group (PCLN)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
AutoZone (AZO)
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Uptrend resuming
Tactical pullback
Uptrend intact
Breakout intact
Technical Analysis
10
November 23, 2015
Buy: DHI, GT, IPG, SBUX
Starbucks (SBUX)
Goodyear Tire (GT) Interpublic Group (IPG)
DR Horton (DHI)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Breakout
Breakout
Breakout intact Uptrend intact
Technical Analysis
11
November 23, 2015
Sell: CBS, DISCK, FOXA, OMC
Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA)
CBS Corp (CBS)
Discovery Communications (DISCK)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Omnicom Group (OMC)
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Sell the bounce into resistance
Pre-breakdown candidate
Sell the bounce into breakdown point
Sell the bounce into breakdown point
Technical Analysis
12
November 23, 2015
Sell: BBY, COH, PVH, TIF
Tiffany (TIF)
Best Buy (BBY)
Coach (COH)
PVH Corp (PVH)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Downtrend resuming
Breakdown intact
Breakdown intact
Breaking down
Technical Analysis
13
November 23, 2015
Aerospace & Defense over Machinery
In our view, select exposure is warranted to the Industrials sector (Market Weight ranking) as the sector bounces from the lower end of its multi-year range relative to the S&P 500. Relative to Industrials, our top idea is to buy Aerospace & Defense stocks (BA, GD, HON, LMT, NOC, RTN) because the industry’s major breakout is intact. Conversely, we recommend selling Machinery names (CAT, CMI, DE, DOV, FLS, PCAR, PH) due to an established trend of underperformance. Buy and Sell ratings for the entire sector are listed on the following page along with the charts for our top momentum-based ideas. The rest of the sector is rated Hold.
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Aerospace & Defense an industry of leadership through the sector’s turn; we expect this to continue
Industrials vs. S&P 500
Aerospace vs. Industrials
w/ 200-day m.a.
Machinery vs. Industrials
Technical Analysis
14
November 23, 2015
S&P 500 Industrials: Buys and Sells
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Ticker Name
Trend
Rating MAER
MO
score Industry
Mkt Cap
($mm)
EFX EQUIFAX INC Buy 3 97 Professional Services 13,001
CTAS CINTAS CORP Buy 3 94 Commercial Services & Supplies 9,802
SNA SNAP-ON INC Buy 3 90 Machinery 9,643
NOC NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP Buy -1 88 Aerospace & Defense 34,097
MAS MASCO CORP Buy 3 87 Building Products 9,976
EXPD EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC Buy 3 85 Air Freight & Logistics 9,162
ROP ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC Buy 1 83 Industrial Conglomerates 18,980
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO Buy -3 81 Industrial Conglomerates 285,732
DHR DANAHER CORP Buy -1 80 Industrial Conglomerates 65,829
LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP Buy -1 79 Aerospace & Defense 68,023
RSG REPUBLIC SERVICES INC Buy -1 78 Commercial Services & Supplies 15,153
DAL DELTA AIR LINES INC Buy 3 75 Airlines 37,424
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP Buy 3 72 Aerospace & Defense 45,118
AME AMETEK INC Buy -3 72 Electrical Equipment 13,086
SWK STANLEY BLACK & DECKER INC Buy 2 71 Machinery 15,893
RTN RAYTHEON COMPANY Buy -3 69 Aerospace & Defense 37,029
LUV SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO Buy 3 65 Airlines 29,916
BA BOEING CO/THE Buy 3 55 Aerospace & Defense 98,762
HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC Buy -3 51 Aerospace & Defense 79,404
ALLE ALLEGION PLC Buy -2 - Building Products 6,263
RHI ROBERT HALF INTL INC Sell 3 45 Professional Services 6,726
ROK ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC Sell -3 45 Electrical Equipment 13,899
DNB DUN & BRADSTREET CORP Sell -3 34 Professional Services 3,888
PBI PITNEY BOWES INC Sell -3 33 Commercial Services & Supplies 4,110
FAST FASTENAL CO Sell -3 28 Trading Companies & Distributo 11,379
PH PARKER HANNIFIN CORP Sell -3 23 Machinery 13,802
DE DEERE & CO Sell -3 21 Machinery 24,217
GWW WW GRAINGER INC Sell -3 20 Trading Companies & Distributo 12,290
PCAR PACCAR INC Sell -1 18 Machinery 18,055
URI UNITED RENTALS INC Sell 1 18 Trading Companies & Distributo 7,074
KSU KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN Sell -3 17 Road & Rail 9,910
TYC TYCO INTERNATIONAL PLC Sell -3 17 Commercial Services & Supplies 15,080
R RYDER SYSTEM INC Sell -1 14 Road & Rail 3,551
CMI CUMMINS INC Sell -3 13 Machinery 17,386
CAT CATERPILLAR INC Sell -3 12 Machinery 40,518
DOV DOVER CORP Sell -3 12 Machinery 9,924
UTX UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP Sell -3 12 Aerospace & Defense 86,236
ETN EATON CORP PLC Sell -3 12 Electrical Equipment 26,153
FLR FLUOR CORP Sell -3 12 Construction & Engineering 6,772
FLS FLOWSERVE CORP Sell -3 6 Machinery 5,906
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC Sell -3 6 Construction & Engineering 3,204
EMR EMERSON ELECTRIC CO Sell -3 2 Electrical Equipment 32,469
MAER is a stock screening tool based on trends in earnings rev isions. MAER ratings range from established negative -3 to established positive +3.
MO is a composite score (scaled 0-100) based on a stock's 6, 9, and 12-month risk-adjusted return lagged 1 month.
Technical Analysis
15
November 23, 2015
Buy: DHR, LMT, NOC, ROP
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Danaher (DHR)
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
Roper Technologies (ROP)
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Breakout intact, buy dips
Breakout Breakout
Breakout intact, buy dips
Breakout intact, buy dips
Technical Analysis
16
November 23, 2015
Buy: CTAS, EFX, MAS, SNA
Equifax (EFX)
Masco Corp (MAS) Snap-on (SNA)
Cintas Corp (CTAS)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Breakout
Steady uptrend intact
Breakout Breakout
Technical Analysis
17
November 23, 2015
Sell: DOV, FAST, PH, URI
Dover Corp (DOV)
Fastenal (FAST)
Parker-Hannifin (PH)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
United Rentals (URI)
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Sell near-term strength amid long-term weakness Breakdown intact
Sell the bounce into resistance Sell the bounce into resistance
Technical Analysis
18
November 23, 2015
Sell: EMR, ETN, KSU, ROK
Eaton Corp (ETN)
Rockwell Automation (ROK) Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Emerson Electric (EMR)
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, and Bloomberg.
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Pre-breakdown candidate Sell the bounce into resistance
Sell the first bounce
Sell the bounce into resistance
Technical Analysis
19
November 23, 2015
Sector & Industry Snapshot: week of Nov 20
Our Sector & Industry Snapshot is a current and concise overview of the leaders and laggards throughout the equity market. As a proxy for trend and momentum, this tool screens a comprehensive list of broad market indexes, S&P sectors (relative to SPX), and all GICS level 3 industries relative to their respective sector. It is designed to be a differentiated performance table and an unbiased starting point to help generate trend-following or mean-reverting ideas.
Mo. measures the level of RSI (14-week). RSI calculates the avg. gain / avg. loss in a security over a specified period. High readings (colored red; above 60) mark overbought and low readings (colored green; below 40) mark oversold. Neutral readings are colored yellow (between 40 and 60).
As a proxy for Trend we use the crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving average. A positive percentage (colored green) indicates how far the 50D is above the 200D and a negative percentage (colored red) indicates how far the 50D is below the 200D.
Absolute Price Momentum Mo. Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 63 0% Chemicals 77 1% Life Sciences Tools & Services 68 1%
S&P 500 Index 55 -2% Construction Materials 61 11% Health Care Equipment & Supplies 63 2%
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 53 0% Containers & Packaging 42 3% Pharmaceuticals 55 0%
Gold spot 37 -2% Paper & Forest Products 41 -4% Biotechnology 51 -1%
WTI Crude Oil future 34 -11% Metals & Mining 23 -11% Health Care Technology 37 -4%
Health Care Providers & Services 32 0%
Relative to S&P 500 Mo. Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend
S&P 100 Index 70 1% Building Products 71 9% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend
NASDAQ-100 64 3% Industrial Conglomerates 70 6% Insurance 60 2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 58 0% Aerospace & Defense 58 1% Commercial Banks 58 1%
S&P 600 Small Cap 43 -1% Airlines 54 7% Real Estate Management & Dev 52 -3%
Russell 2000 38 -3% Marine 47 -3% Real Estate Investment Trusts 48 1%
MSCI EAFE Developed Markets 37 -3% Construction & Engineering 46 -2% Capital Markets 45 -4%
S&P 400 Mid Cap 33 -2% Air Freight & Logistics 46 2% Diversified Financial Services 42 -1%
MSCI Emerging Markets 31 -8% Professional Services 45 2% Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 38 5%
S&P 500 Equal Weight 29 -1% Electrical Equipment 41 -6% Consumer Finance 26 -4%
Commercial Services & Supplies 39 1%
Relative to S&P 500 Mo. Trend Road & Rail 38 -8% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend
Technology 64 2% Trading Companies & Distributors 33 -6% Internet Software & Services 75 10%
Consumer Discretionary 62 4% Machinery 25 -6% Software 64 3%
Industrials 56 -1% Semis & Semi Equipment 50 -3%
Financials 51 -1% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend IT Services 44 0%
Consumer Staples 47 2% Internet & Catalog Retail 81 17% Electronic Equipment 44 -6%
Utilities 45 1% Media 51 -3% Computers & Peripherals 34 -6%
Health Care 43 -2% Distributors 51 -1% Communications Equipment 25 -5%
Materials 42 -6% Automobiles 48 -4% S&P 1500 Telecom
Telecom 39 -2% Auto Components 47 -7% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend
Energy 36 -6% Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 45 1% Wireless Telecom 60 2%
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury 42 1% Diversified Telecom 41 0%
Relative to S&P 500 Mo. Trend Speciality Retail 42 0% S&P 1500 Utilities
Russell 1000 Growth 59 1% Household Durables 42 -4% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend
S&P 500 Low Volatility 58 2% Leisure Equipment & Products 35 -5% Water Utilities 82 5%
S&P High Yield Dividend 48 0% Diversified Consumer Services 26 -5% Multi-Utilities 68 2%
Russell 2000 Value 39 -3% Multiline Retail 23 -11% Gas Utilities 63 5%
Russell 2000 Growth 38 -3% Electric Utilities 44 -1%
S&P 500 High Beta 36 -5% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend Independent Power Producers 21 -24%
Russell 1000 Value 31 -2% Beverages 76 3%
Tobacco 61 6%
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) Mo. Trend Household Products 52 -2%
Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels 56 0% Personal Products 38 -8% As of 20-Nov-15
Energy Equipment & Services 44 -2% Food Products 38 1%
Food & Staples Retailing 35 -5%
S&P 1500 Health CareS&P 1500 Materials
S&P 1500 Industrials
S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary
S&P 1500 Financials
S&P 1500 Technology
Key Market Indexes
Broad Market Equity Averages
S&P 500 Sectors
Styles
S&P 1500 Consumer Staples
S&P 1500 Energy
Source: Oppenheimer Asset Management & Bloomberg.
Technical Analysis
20
November 23, 2015
Stock prices of companies/ETFs mentioned in this report (as of November 20, 2015):
Company Ticker
Primary
Exchange
Last
Price Company Ticker
Primary
Exchange
Last
Price
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC AAP New York 164.0 L BRANDS INC LB New York 93.8
ALLEGION PLC ALLE New York 66.7 LENNAR CORP-A LEN New York 50.7
AMETEK INC AME New York 56.4 LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP LMT New York 226.3
AMAZON.COM INC AMZN NASDAQ GS 664.6 LOWE'S COS INC LOW New York 75.1
AUTONATION INC AN New York 63.2 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO LUV New York 47.1
AUTOZONE INC AZO New York 782.8 MACY'S INC M New York 38.7
BOEING CO/THE BA New York 149.8 MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL -CL A MAR NASDAQ GS 72.2
BED BATH & BEYOND INC BBBY NASDAQ GS 53.5 MASCO CORP MAS New York 30.1
BEST BUY CO INC BBY New York 30.3 MATTEL INC MAT NASDAQ GS 24.5
BORGWARNER INC BWA New York 42.8 MCDONALD'S CORP MCD New York 114.0
CATERPILLAR INC CAT New York 71.0 MOHAWK INDUSTRIES INC MHK New York 191.7
CBS CORP-CLASS B NON VOTING CBS New York 51.6 ISHARES MSCI USA MOMENTUM MTUM NYSE Arca 73.8
COMCAST CORP-CLASS A CMCSA NASDAQ GS 62.8 NETFLIX INC NFLX NASDAQ GS 122.4
COMCAST CORP-SPECIAL CL A CMCSK NASDAQ GS 62.9 NIKE INC -CL B NKE New York 131.8
CUMMINS INC CMI New York 99.3 NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC New York 189.5
COACH INC COH New York 30.2 NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC NWL New York 44.2
CINTAS CORP CTAS NASDAQ GS 91.4 OMNICOM GROUP OMC New York 73.6
DELTA AIR LINES INC DAL New York 48.8 O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC ORLY NASDAQ GS 269.7
DEERE & CO DE New York 75.4 PITNEY BOWES INC PBI New York 21.1
DR HORTON INC DHI New York 31.9 PACCAR INC PCAR NASDAQ GS 51.6
DANAHER CORP DHR New York 97.4 PRICELINE GROUP INC/THE PCLN NASDAQ GS 1278.3
DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS-A DISCA NASDAQ GS 30.6 PARKER HANNIFIN CORP PH New York 104.5
DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS-C DISCK NASDAQ GS 29.0 PVH CORP PVH New York 91.2
DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE PLC DLPH New York 85.9 QUANTA SERVICES INC PWR New York 21.5
DUN & BRADSTREET CORP DNB New York 107.3 RYDER SYSTEM INC R New York 67.0
DOVER CORP DOV New York 65.3 GUGG S&P 500 EQ WGT CONS DIS RCD NYSE Arca 88.1
EQUIFAX INC EFX New York 109.9 ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD RCL New York 94.3
EMERSON ELECTRIC CO EMR New York 50.1 ROBERT HALF INTL INC RHI New York 51.1
EATON CORP PLC ETN New York 57.5 RALPH LAUREN CORP RL New York 122.7
EXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC EXPD NASDAQ GS 49.2 ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC ROK New York 105.7
EXPEDIA INC EXPE NASDAQ GS 126.6 ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC ROP New York 191.5
FASTENAL CO FAST NASDAQ GS 39.8 REPUBLIC SERVICES INC RSG New York 44.3
FIRST TRUST DJ INTERNET IND FDN NYSE Arca 76.6 RAYTHEON COMPANY RTN New York 127.3
FLUOR CORP FLR New York 48.2 STARBUCKS CORP SBUX NASDAQ GS 62.0
FLOWSERVE CORP FLS New York 45.8 SIGNET JEWELERS LTD SIG New York 139.0
FOSSIL GROUP INC FOSL NASDAQ GS 36.8 SNAP-ON INC SNA New York 169.1
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX - B FOX NASDAQ GS 30.5 SCRIPPS NETWORKS INTER-CL A SNI New York 57.0
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX-A FOXA NASDAQ GS 30.1 STAPLES INC SPLS NASDAQ GS 12.1
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD New York 146.4 STANLEY BLACK & DECKER INC SWK New York 107.9
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE New York 30.6 TARGET CORP TGT New York 71.1
GAP INC/THE GPS New York 26.7 TIFFANY & CO TIF New York 75.2
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO GT NASDAQ GS 34.1 TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY TSCO NASDAQ GS 89.9
WW GRAINGER INC GWW New York 199.1 TIME WARNER CABLE TWC New York 184.3
HOME DEPOT INC HD New York 128.6 TYCO INTERNATIONAL PLC TYC New York 35.6
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC HOG New York 50.1 UNDER ARMOUR INC-CLASS A UA New York 91.1
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC HON New York 105.9 URBAN OUTFITTERS INC URBN NASDAQ GS 23.2
H&R BLOCK INC HRB New York 37.0 UNITED RENTALS INC URI New York 75.5
INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COS INC IPG New York 23.4 UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP UTX New York 99.0
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 VALUE E IWN NYSE Arca 96.2 VIACOM INC-CLASS B VIAB NASDAQ GS 52.1
NORDSTROM INC JWN New York 56.1 WYNN RESORTS LTD WYNN NASDAQ GS 59.4
KOHLS CORP KSS New York 46.2 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SELT XLY NYSE Arca 81.0
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN KSU New York 93.7
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Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered byOppenheimer & Co. Inc:Stock Prices as of November 23, 2015Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP - NYSE, $162.82, PERFORM)AMETEK, Inc. (AME - NYSE, $56.22, OUTPERFORM)Amazon.Com, Inc. (AMZN - NASDAQ, $668.45, OUTPERFORM)AutoZone, Inc. (AZO - NYSE, $783.82, OUTPERFORM)Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY - NASDAQ, $53.62, OUTPERFORM)Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY - NYSE, $30.51, OUTPERFORM)Comcast (CMCSA - NASDAQ, $62.90, OUTPERFORM)Comcast (CMCSK - NASDAQ, $24.18)Coach, Inc. (COH - NYSE, $30.55, OUTPERFORM)Cintas Corporation (CTAS - NASDAQ, $91.31, PERFORM)Emerson (EMR - NYSE, $50.16, PERFORM)Eaton Corp. (ETN - NYSE, $57.59, PERFORM)Expedia Inc. (EXPE - NASDAQ, $126.25, OUTPERFORM)Flowserve Corporation (FLS - NYSE, $45.74, PERFORM)FOSSIL, Inc. (FOSL - NASDAQ, $36.79, PERFORM)General Electric (GE - NYSE, $30.66, PERFORM)Gap Inc. (GPS - NYSE, $26.98, PERFORM)W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW - NYSE, $199.19, PERFORM)Home Depot Inc. (HD - NYSE, $130.21, OUTPERFORM)Honeywell International Inc. (HON - NYSE, $105.63, OUTPERFORM)H&R Block, Inc. (HRB - NYSE, $37.02, OUTPERFORM)Kansas City Southern (KSU - NYSE, $93.53)L Brands, Inc. (LB - NYSE, $93.94, PERFORM)Lowe's Cos. (LOW - NYSE, $75.77, OUTPERFORM)Mattel Inc. (MAT - NASDAQ, $24.54, OUTPERFORM)McDonald's Corporation (MCD - NYSE, $113.91, PERFORM)Netflix, Inc. (NFLX - NASDAQ, $123.84, OUTPERFORM)Newell Rubbermaid (NWL - NYSE, $44.41, PERFORM)O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY - NASDAQ, $270.50, PERFORM)The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN - NASDAQ, $1,281.53, OUTPERFORM)Rockwell Automation (ROK - NYSE, $105.18, PERFORM)Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP - NYSE, $191.49, PERFORM)Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - NASDAQ, $61.99, OUTPERFORM)Staples, Inc. (SPLS - NASDAQ, $12.29, PERFORM)Tiffany & Co. (TIF - NYSE, $75.14, OUTPERFORM)Tractor Supply Company (TSCO - NASDAQ, $90.81, OUTPERFORM)Under Armour, Inc. (UA - NYSE, $92.01, PERFORM)Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN - NASDAQ, $23.00, PERFORM)United Rentals, Inc. (URI - NYSE, $75.58, OUTPERFORM)
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Important Disclosures and Certifications
The research provided in this report is based on technical analysis provided by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., a nonmember affiliate of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Technical analysis is the study of price and volume and the interpretation of tradingpatterns associated with such studies in an attempt to project future price movements. Technical analysis does not considerthe fundamentals of the underlying corporate issuer and may offer an investment view that may appear inconsistent with otherresearch generated by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. This report does not constitute research regarding fundamentalfinancial information. The investments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should usetechnical analysis as one input into formulating an investment opinion and should consult with their Financial Advisor.Additional inputs should include, but are not limited to, the review of other research reports generated by Oppenheimer AssetManagement Inc., and looking at the fundamentals of the underlying corporate issuer.
Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the subjectsecurities, which are reflected in the substance of this report. The author certifies that no part of his/her compensation was,is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.
Potential Conflicts of Interest:Technical analysts employed by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by thefirm. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her householdfrom executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, Oppenheimer AssetManagement Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member ofa company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to bespecifically disclosed in this report, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position ordeal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instrumentsbased thereon. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specificdisclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.
Third Party Research DisclosureOppenheimer & Co. Inc. has a research sharing agreement with Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. to provide third-partyresearch services to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. customers. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not guarantee that the informationsupplied is accurate, complete or timely, nor does Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. make any warranties with regard to the researchproduct or the results obtained from its use. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has no control over or input with respect to OppenheimerAsset Management Inc. research opinions. Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. is a non-member affiliate of Oppenheimer& Co. Inc.
Company Specific Disclosures
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of ALLE, AMZN, BA, BBBY, CMCSA, CMCSK, CMI, CTAS, DAL,DISCA, DISCK, EXPD, EXPE, FOSL, FOX, NFLX, ORLY, PCLN, PWR, SBUX, SPLS, TSCO, UA, URBN, WYNN, FAST,FOXA, PCAR and VIAB.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3months from CMCSA, CMCSK, GE, UA and URI.
Additional InformationPlease write to Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004. Attention: ComplianceDepartment.
Other DisclosuresThis report is issued and approved by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc, a registered investment advisor, to its affiliates Oppenheimer& Co. Inc., Oppenheimer Europe Ltd. and Oppenheimer Investments Asia Limited. This report may be further distributed by Oppenheimer& Co. Inc., for informational purposes only, to its institutional and retail investor clients. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. transacts business on all
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principal Exchanges and is a member of SIPC. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussedherein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitablefor all types of investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of anyparticular client of Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. or its affiliates. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor inmaking an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution forthe exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or companywith actual, implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decisionwith respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is appropriate giventhe recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend that investors independently evaluateparticular investments and strategies, and encourage investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. Oppenheimer Asset ManagementInc. will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee offuture results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned inthis report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected byexchange rates, and investors may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. OppenheimerAsset Management Inc. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report. All information, opinionsand statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Oppenheimer AssetManagement Inc. does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception ofinformation contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. or individualresearch analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein constitutejudgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or taxadvice. 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