Estimation of the size and vital rates of the Haredi ... · growth of Haredi population, ... high fertility norms ... 2011. (Hebrew) PDF Creator - PDF4Free v2.0 . Current estimates

Estimation of the size and vital rates ofthe Haredi (Ultra-orthodox) population in

Israel for the purpose of long-rangepopulation projections

Ari M. PaltielDemography and Census Department

Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

30/10/2013 1

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Background

• First Long-Range Population Projectionsin Israel: 50 rather than 25 years

• First attempt by ICBS to integrate data-based stochastic models in construction ofassumptions

• First time a non-National PopulationRegister- based population was used inofficial projections

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Long-Range Population ProjectionsRationale:

• Evaluation of the financial security of thesocial security system – long-rangeevolution of population size and age-sexstructure

• Need to assess long-range impact of rapidgrowth of Haredi population, as well asgrowth of female Arab population - bothare relatively poor and males have lowlabour force participation rates

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Long-Range Population ProjectionsStructure

• Three base populations:1. Jews and Others without Haredim2. Haredi population3. Arabs

• Fertility and Mortality assumptions based onstochastic models, with High Medium and Lowforecasts corresponding to Mean andboundaries of 95% confidence intervals

• Zero net-migration, internationally and betweengroups

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Who are Haredim (pl. of Haredi)

• Internally diverse religious (“ultra-orthodox”)subculture, resisting modern culture and westernlifestyles, guided by authoritative Rabbis

• Live in self-segregated geographic communities• Separate, distinctive educational institutions• Early arranged marriages, high fertility norms• Economic based on private welfare institutions,

universal state benefits, and female employment• Distinct political parties protect way of life

through political bargaining

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Long-Range Population ProjectionsChallenge

• Identifying Haredi population’s1.Size2.Age-sex structure3.Demographic Rates• Despite lack of formal, authoritative

definition

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Method for Identification and Analysis:

• Pooled data from Social Survey 2002-2009 – national population sample age20+ (3,320 Haredim of 54,500 in pool)

• Data linked to National PopulationRegister for lifetime births, deaths,migration (completing under 20population)

• Recalculation of Survey weights to adjustfor probability of exposure

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Responses for “Religiosity” in the SocialSurvey, 2009

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Do you regard yourself as:Jewish Population 100%1. Ultra-Orthodox (“Haredi”) 8%2. Religious 12%3. Traditional - religious 13%4. Traditional - not so religious 25%5. Not religious, secular 41%

Non-Jewish Population 100%1. Very religious 8%2. Religious 44%3. Not so religious 27%4. Not religious 21%



Analysis of TFR by religiosity of Jewishwomen in pooled Social Survey data

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Ahmad Hleihel, Fertility of Jewish and Moslem Women in Israel, by their Level of Religiosity, during 1979 – 2009, Working Paper No. 60. Central Bureau of Statistics, June2011. (Hebrew)



Current estimates of the population of Israel at age20 and over, and estimates of the total recreatedpopulation from the pooled Social Survey

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Ages 20 and over Ages 0 to 19



Sex ratios (males per 100 females), in initialand corrected Haredi population estimates

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Life Expectancy of Jews in Israel 1971 – 2008,Projected, for Jews and Others up to 2059, bymodified LC Model with 95% CI

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ajewish Women in Israel 1984-2008:Fertility Rates and Cumulative Fertility Rates

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2. Cumulative Fertility Rate1. Fertility Rate for Single Age



Observed and projected values of TFR in theHaredi population 1980 – 2057

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0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.0

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057

Year

TFR

Observed values

Cummulative mean values

95% Confidence interval of cummulative mean

Projection



Population of Israel and Estimates for Hardipopulation by Age, End of 2009

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264,600 177,000 118,100 76,400 49,200 37,200 16,300 11,200

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+

Rest of Population Haredim



Population Estimates and Projections, byVarious Scenarios, 1974-2059

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Projections of population groups by variousscenarios, 2009 – 2059

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Projections of population groups by variousscenarios, 2009 – 2059

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Jews and Others without HaredimTotal

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 2030-34 2035-39 2040-44 2045-49 2050-54 2055-59

ArabsHaredim

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 2030-34 2035-39 2040-44 2045-49 2050-54 2055-59-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 2030-34 2035-39 2040-44 2045-49 2050-54 2055-59



Share of Haredim in total population growthrate

Low Projection Medium Projection High Projection

2010 -2019

2020 -2034

2035 -2059

2010 -2019

2020 -2034

2035 -2059

2010 -2019

2020 -2034

2035 -2059

30% 42% 92% 27% 37% 48% 25% 34% 44%

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Forecast Age Pyramids for Israel in the Short, Medium, andLong Term, with uncertainty bars for total population

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20192009

20592034



Share of subgroups in the population of Israel by age, in theshort, medium, and long term, with uncertainty intervals.

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0-19Total

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2019 2034 2059

65+20-64

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2019 2034 2059

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2019 2034 2059



Discussion and Conclusions:

• For Israel: Challenges of rapid populationgrowth of distinct social group

• For ICBS: Need to continue to developstochastic projection techniques, includingmethods to correlated relationships betweengroups

• For Demographers: Benefits and difficultiesof cohort-component disaggregation: revealsources of growth, exaggerates separation

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Postscript: Estimates of the Haredi population aged 20and over from the Social Survey and from the Long-Range Population Projections project, 2002-2012.

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thou

sand

s

Social Survey Estimate medium projection



Documents

Estimation of the size and vital rates of the Haredi ... · growth of Haredi population, ... high fertility norms ... 2011. (Hebrew) PDF Creator - PDF4Free v2.0 . Current estimates