Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for

CalgaryKJ Stefan, City of Calgary

JDP McMillan, City of CalgaryCR Blaschuk, City of Calgary

JD Hunt, University of Calgary

Overall model context

• Weekend Household Activity Model (WHAM)• Personal weekend travel• Tour-based microsimulation model• Emphasis on activities• Partial treatment of household groups• Same household survey as RTM

• Sampling evenly across all 7 days • 2342 weekend households

Overall model context

• Part of a model system for Calgary• Weekday regional travel model (RTM)

• Personal travel• Aggregate model with full nested logit

structure

• Weekday commercial vehicle model (CVM)• Commercial vehicle travel• Tour-based microsimulation model

Model goals

• Part of 24/7 system evaluation• Benefits to all users• Emissions

• Analysis of retail and entertainment facilities

• Microsimulation input• Learning for weekday activity model

Weekday personal

66%

Weekday

commercial

6%

Weekend personal

26%

Weekend

commercial (est.)

1%

Other (est.)

1%

24/7 Model Coverage

Overall model structure

Tour Generation and membership

Tour Purpose

Tour Mode

Trip and stop properties (including

location choice)

Two Types of Tours

• Growing• Stops organically ‘grow’, chosen one

after another

• Hybrid Rubber-banding• Primary Stop chosen• Optional Intermediate Stops• Subsequent stops chosen as with

growing tours

Home

Growing Tours

Stop

Stop

?

Home

Growing Tours

Stop

Stop

Home

Growing Tours

Stop

Stop?

Stop

Home

Growing Tours

Stop

Stop

Stop

Stop

Home

Hybrid Tours

PrimaryStop

Home

Hybrid Tours

IntermediateStop

PrimaryStop

?

Home

Hybrid Tours

IntermediateStop

PrimaryStop

Home

Hybrid Tours

IntermediateStop

Stop

PrimaryStop

?

Home

Hybrid Tours

IntermediateStop

Stop

PrimaryStop

Home

Hybrid Tours

IntermediateStop

Stop

PrimaryStop?

Stop

Tour Purposes

Hybrid Treatment• Out of Town• Serve Passenger• Work• School• Religious/Civic• Exercise

Growing Treatment

• Shopping• Entertainment /

Leisure• Social• Eating

Trip and stop properties

Stop purpose

Stop location

Trip mode

Stop duration

Model estimation

• Two-stage estimation• Location attractors

• Linear regressions by activity• Large number of zonal attributes

• Location choice logit model• Combines attractors with travel and group

information• In progress; auto complete (most

important one at ~65% of trips)

Zonal attributes

• Population and demographic• Age ranges, incomes, car ownership

• Education spaces by level• Employment by 8 industry types• Park in hectares• Special attractors• Land use typology (calculated)

Special attractors

• Institutions:• 3 major post secondary institutions• 3 major hospitals• Airport

• Entertainment:• Arts and Culture District• Stampede, Zoo, Heritage Park

• Big Box retail

Land use types

• 5 land use types:• Low-density• Residential• Commercial (retail)• Industrial• Employment node

• Calculated based on employment and population (mix and density)

Low density

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Employment node

Attractors – Work

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Industrial employment, industrial zones

Industrial, employment nodes

Industrial, other zones

Wholesale and Transport, industrial zones

Agriculture, Whole., Trans, other zones

Education, all zones

Population, low density zones

Attracted trips (R2=0.575)

Attractors - Work

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Retail, commercial zones

Retail, residential zones

Retail, other zones

Service, commercial zones

Service, employment nodes

Service, hospital sites

Service, residential zones

Service, other zones

Arts and Culture district

Attracted trips (R2=0.575)

Other attractor functions

• Serve Passenger:• Retail, airport, hospitals, education

• School:• Student spaces – especially PSE spaces

• Religious/Civic:• Population (75+, income), education, retail

• Exercise:• Park space, employment, population (65+,

income), student spaces

Other attractor functions

• Shop:• Retail (esp. commercial zones, big box)

• Entertainment/Leisure:• Attractors, population (15-24, income), retail

• Social:• Population (15-34, 65+, income), service,

retail

• Eating:• Retail (commercial, residential), population

Logit estimation

• Combining regressed attractors with travel costs and group properties

• Generalised travel cost (time and distance)

• Presenting one of a set of models• Auto mode• Growing portion of tours only• Represents around 65% of weekend

travel

Home

Primary Stop

Stop

Stop

Stop

Growing tour or hybrid tour after primary stop

Home

Stop

Stop

StopTo cost

Primary Stop

Home

Stop

Stop

StopTo cost

Return cost

Primary Stop

Home

Stop

Stop

StopTo cost

Return cost

Enclosed angle

Primary Stop

Home

Stop

Stop

StopTo cost

Return cost

Enclosed angle

Attractor

Primary Stop

Auto Stop Location Parameters

Next stop location choice model; To Cost Parameters(absolute t-statistics in brackets)

-0.12 -0.1 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04

1 person (16.87)

2 persons (17.8)

3 persons (8.77)

income <$35K (2.86)

1 pers trip, age < 25 (1.99)

1 pers trip, age 25-29 (4.96)

shop trips (4.33)

social and entertainment trips(1.73)

Parameter value

Auto Stop Location Parameters

Next stop location choice model; Return-to-Home Cost Parameters(absolute t-statistics in brackets)

-0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0

1 person (9.08)

2 persons (2.04)

3+ persons (3.7)

num kids 5-8 (2.53)

num kids 9-13 (2.32)

num nondriving adults (3.27)

num seniors 75+ (2.39)

shop trips (15.6)

Parameter value

Example groups

• One adult (30+)• One adult, one kid (8)• Two adults• Two adults, two children (8 and 12)• One adult, one senior (82,

nondriving)

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

One

adu

lt

One

adu

lt,

one

kid

Tw

o ad

ults

Tw

o ad

ults

, tw

oki

ds

Adu

lt,

seni

or

Gen

eral

ized

cos

t

To

Return

Example trips

• One adult:• <25, shop• 25-29, entertainment• 30+, shop• 30+, eating• Low income, 30+, entertainment

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

<25,

sho

p

25-2

9,en

tert

ainm

ent

30+,

sho

p

30+,

eat

ing

30+,

ente

rtai

nmen

t,lo

w in

com

e

Gen

eral

ized

cos

t

To

Return

Auto Stop Location ParametersNext stop location choice model; all parameters

(absolute t-statistics in brackets)

-0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2

Enclosed angle (7.78)

Attractor; shop (14.77)

Attractor; social (6.22)

Attractor; eating (5.54)

Attractor; entertainment(2.49)

Attractor; rubberbandingtype stops (1.77)

Parameter value

Auto Stop Model

• Sensible results• Costs lest significant for social trips• Return to home costs important, but

not as important as to costs• Less mobile members of group add to

costs of location choices

Next Steps

• Estimate growing tour location choice models for remaining modes (bike and ‘other’)

• Estimate models for primary stop and intermediate stop location choices

QUESTIONS

• Please Use Microphone