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Estimation of 2000 Zonal Employment for the Delaware Valley Region
Based on Census Data
byThabet Zakaria
Deputy Director for Transportation PlanningDelaware Valley Regional Planning Commission
E-mail: [email protected]
Accurate zonal employment data are required for traffic analysis, travel forecasting, transportation planning, and economic development projects. This paper describes the methodology used by DVRPC to develop 2000 zonal employment or total jobs estimates for the Delaware Valley region based on the census employed persons at work, which are included in the Census Transportation Planning Package 2000 and the journey-to-work traffic flows. A three-step method was used to develop county, municipal and zonal employment estimates for the region, which includes 9 counties, 355 municipalities, and 1,912 Traffic Analysis Zones. The Census Bureau is the only agency that provides employed persons data at the zonal level.
ABSTRACT
Employment estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pennsylvania and New Jersey Departments of Labor (ES-202), and local data were used to compare the zonal employment estimates developed by DVRPC. The DVRPC county, municipal, and zonal employment estimates are based on quality data from Census 2000 and are consistent with other federal, state, and county estimates. Although it does not include the number of total jobs and comparable Standard Industrial Classification sectors, CTPP 2000 can be adjusted easily and utilized in transportation and regional planning studies, such as travel simulation, trend analyses, job access, reverse commuting, and the preparation of transportation plans and programs.
ABSTRACT (Continued)
FIGURE 1Delaware Valley Region
9355
1,912
CountiesMunicipalitiesTraffic Analysis Zones
To develop zonal employment data from Census 2000, a three-step process was employed: (1) estimate employment at the county level; (2) estimate employment at the municipal level; and (3) estimate employment at the zonal level. Employment data are also available from secondary sources at the county and municipal levels, but not at the zonal level which are provided only by the CB. In this process, county employment numbers are estimated first and used as control totals for developing both municipal and zonal employment estimates because the county numbers are based on more accurate data from the CB and other secondary sources.
ESTIMATION OF 2000 ZONAL EMPLOYMENT
CTPP 2000 Labor Force, Unemployed and Employed Persons in the Delaware Valley Region
Labor Unemployed EmployedCounty Force Persons Persons
Bucks 320,110 11,128 308,982 241,603…Philadelphia 656,935 71,582 585,353 660,050
Burlington 219,871 8,462 211,409 183,084...Mercer 180,299 13,528 166,771 200,225
Region Total 2,666,178 167,255 2,498,923 2,449,040
Place of Residence
Persons
Place of Work Employed
Four adjustments to census employed persons at work were made. The first adjustment was made to account for absentee rates. This information is available from census data and ranges from 1.5 to 2.7 percent. Secondly, an adjustment was made to account for workers who have not been included in the journey-to-work flow. This adjustment ranges from 1.9 to 4.0 percent by county. Thirdly, the census employed persons at the place of work were increased by 6.5 percent to account for multiple job-holding. This information is based on the DVRPC household travel survey. Finally, the fourth adjustment is needed for estimating employment sectors (industry). Sector data from BEA and ES-202 were used to adjust CTPP 2000 sectors within the estimated county employment totals.
County Employment Estimates
Comparison of 2000 County Employment Estimates for the Delaware Valley Region
Bureau of Economic
DVRPC Based on ES-202
Bureau of Labor
County Analysis Census Data Statistics
Bucks 328,178 267,124 249,576 244,317…Philadelphia 784,478 741,397 673,096 668,793
Burlington 237,876 202,535 181,966 180,165…Mercer 245,927 220,915 201,107 210,031
Region Total 3,121,554 2,717,851 2,524,272 2,500,069
Comparison of 2000 BEA, DVRPC, & ES 202 Employment Sector Estimates for the
Delaware Valley Region
CTPP 2000 Employment
BEA DVRPC ES 202 Sectors
31,956 25,245 25,326 10,728
144,754 130,814 101,573 135,498
321,035 312,145 300,646 290,145
152,534 133,923 129,876 92,831
482,860 435,850 431,325 278,054
133,180 118,190 110,659 121,210
278,271 212,911 168,625 202,730
1,191,172 982,300 877,934 1,180,063
350,126 351,222 354,080 128,172
22,458 9,366 8,685
3,121,554 2,717,857 2,524,272 2,448,116
Manufacturing
Agriculture & Mining
Construction
Sector Estimates 2000 Employment
Region Total
F.I.R.E.
Services
Employment Sector
Government & Public Administration
Military
Retail Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
The number of employed persons at work in each municipality was tabulated from the 2000 MCD-to-MCD journey-to-work flows. Municipal employed persons were increased to be equal to the estimated county control totals. These were called preliminary MCD estimates. DVRPC staff then requested the counties to review the preliminary MCD estimates based on their land use plans and programs. After receiving county comments, DVRPC staff reviewed the county comments and incorporated some of them in the MCD estimates. Finally, DVRPC reviewed the preliminary MCD and zonal estimates and developed final MCD and zonal employment estimates within the county control totals estimated in Step 1.
Municipal and Zonal Employment Estimates
CTPP 2000 Step 2 Step 3Employed Preliminary Final
Persons MCD Zonal
at Work Estimates Estimates Diff. Percent
100 1,780 2,086 2,043 306 17.2%1700 2,760 3,050 2,982 290 10.5%
Oxford Bor, PA 1,925 2,197 2,197 272 14.1%Monroe Twp, NJ 6,325 7,376 7,377 1,051 16.6%
Philadelphia, PA 660,095 741,397 741,397 741,397 81,302 12.3%Mercer, NJ 200,235 220,915 220,915 220,915 20,680 10.3%
2,449,108 2,717,851 2,717,851 2,717,851 268,743 11.0%
Traffic Analysis Zone
County
Region Total
Estimates
Municipality
Areal Unit
DVRPC 2000 Employment Estimates
Prelm. - CTPP County
DVRPC Step 1 Final
CTPP 2000 Employed Persons at Work and DVRPC 2000 Preliminary and Final Employment Estimates
ST
FIGURE 21990 - 2000 Change in
Municipal Employment
CTPP 2000 for the Delaware Valley region contains quality employment data at the county, municipal, and zonal levels. However, there are several statistical problems in the census data, which must be identified and resolved before using the data in transportation planning, travel simulation, and employment location studies. Such problems have been identified and resolved in the estimation of 2000 county, municipal, and zonal employment estimates.
CONCLUSIONS
CTPP 2000 regional employed persons at work data were increased by 11.0 percent because they do not include all jobs. The analysis of employment sectors showed new problems due to the change from SIC to NAICS and some biases in the responses, which should be resolved before the 2010 census. Other secondary sources of employment such as ES-202 and BEA were used as a guide to determine reasonable employment sector estimates for the DVRPC region. With these adjustments, CTPP 2000 employment data are invaluable for transportation planning. The CTPP is the only source for zonal employment data and it is much easier to adjust census data than to collect or develop them from the beginning.
CONCLUSIONS (CONTINUED)
The DVRPC cooperative process for the development of zonal employment estimates based on CTPP data produces reasonable estimates at the country, municipal, and zonal levels. It can be applied easily to other regions in the country that have MCDs, including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, New England states, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Also, it can be applied efficiently to other regions in the remaining states to develop county and zonal employment estimates, which are needed for travel simulation, economic development, and other transportation planning studies.
CONCLUSIONS (CONTINUED)
Estimation of 2000 Zonal Employment for the Delaware Valley Region
Based on Census Data
byThabet Zakaria
Deputy Director for Transportation PlanningDelaware Valley Regional Planning Commission
E-mail: [email protected]
