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Updating of the SIGMAPLAN. ESPACE INTERREG III B De Smet Michel Stefaan Nollet Wim Dauwe District Sea-Scheldt woensdag 3 september 2014. Updating of the SIGMAPLAN. 1. Introduction and situation 2. History of the Sigmaplan 3. Updating is necessary 4. How to do it ? New approaches. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
ESPACE INTERREG III B
De Smet MichelStefaan NolletWim Dauwe
District Sea-Scheldt
vrijdag 21 april 2023
Updating of the SIGMAPLAN
2
Updating of the SIGMAPLAN
1. Introduction and situation1. Introduction and situation
2. History of the Sigmaplan
3. Updating is necessary
4. How to do it ? New approaches
3
Estuary of the Scheldt
355 km river length21.863 km2
10 500 000 people
Sea Scheldt
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Gemiddelde tijkrommen te Antwerpen
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
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-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
tijd in uur
m T
.A.W
.
springtij
doodtij
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gemiddeld HW en LW
-1
0
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2
3
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5
6
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0 50 100 150
afstand in km
doodtij LW
doodtij HW
springtij LW
springtij HW
GentVlissingen Hansweert Antwerpen Dendermonde
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Updating of the SIGMAPLAN
1. Introduction and situation1. Introduction and situation
2. History of the Sigmaplan
3. Updating is necessary
4. How to do it ? New approaches
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- St Elisabethflood in 1404- St Elisabetflood in 1421- St Felixflood in 1530- All Saintsflood in 1570
Some flood disasters
- Februari 1953
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1836 slachtoffers
Disaster of 1953
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- St Elisabeth flood 1404- St Elisabeth flood 1421- St Felix flood 1530- All Saints 1570- February 1953- January 1976
Some flood disasters
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Flood disaster of 1976
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The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
Decision :Ministerial decision of Feb 18, 1977 implementation of the SIGMAPLAN
Target :Protection of the basin of the Sea Scheldt against a storm surge orinating from the North Sea with a probability of occurrence of 1% in a century (= 1 per 10.000 years) 8.97 m T.A.W. in Antwerp
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GENT
BOOM
LIERTEMSE
ZEMST
DUFFEL
ITEGEM
SCHELLE
LOKEREN
VIERSEL
MECHELEN
WETTEREN
OOSTERLO
WERCHTER
ANTWERPEN
VILVOORDE
ZANDVLIET
DENDERMONDE
GROBBENDONK
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
a) reinforce all river embankments (dikes)b) construction of flood control areasc) construction of a storm surge barrier ds Antwerp
zone 1 : 11,00 m TAW
zone 2 : 8,35 m TAW
zone 3 : 8,00 m TAW
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target levels of embankments
5
6
7
8
9
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0 50 100 150
distance in km
m T
.A.W
.
GentVlissingen Hansweert Antwerpen Dendermonde
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
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GENT
BOOM
LIERTEMSE
ZEMST
DUFFEL
ITEGEM
SCHELLE
LOKEREN
VIERSEL
MECHELEN
WETTEREN
OOSTERLO
WERCHTER
ANTWERPEN
VILVOORDE
ZANDVLIET
DENDERMONDE
GROBBENDONK
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
a) reinforce all river embankments (dikes)b) construction of flood control areasc) construction of a storm surge barrier ds Antwerp
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ScheldtCIA
1
2
3
4
ringdike weir
1
2
3
4
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
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GENT
BOOM
LIERTEMSE
ZEMST
DUFFEL
ITEGEM
SCHELLE
LOKEREN
VIERSEL
MECHELEN
WETTEREN
OOSTERLO
WERCHTER
ANTWERPEN
VILVOORDE
ZANDVLIET
DENDERMONDE
GROBBENDONK
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
KBR
a) reinforce all river embankments (dikes)b) construction of flood control areasc) construction of a storm surge barrier ds Antwerp
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90 m 90 m
54 m 54 m 54 m
lift gates
sector gates
125 m
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
2003 : 1.000.000.000 EUR
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Storm Surge barrier 1977
In 1982 a benefit cost analysis was performed• without taking into account sea level rise• taking into account a construction cost of
1.000.000.000 Eur (price level 2003)
Results:discounted costs = 30 to 40 times disc. benefitsno pay back during project life (100 year)
construction of barrier postponed indefenitely
19
The SIGMAPLAN of 1977
Realized : - 80 % of all planned embankment works- 12 of 13 planned CIA’s are operational- CIA Kruibeke - Bazel - Rupelmonde under construction
Result :- 1 / 70 year (7,83 m TAW) : situatie now- 1 / 350 year (8,24 m TAW) : when KBR operational
20
Updating of the SIGMAPLAN
1. Introduction and situation1. Introduction and situation
2. History of the Sigmaplan
3. Updating is necessary
4. How to do it ? New approaches
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Updating is necessary
1. Changing boundary conditions - stronger tidal cycles - climatic change
2. New vision on design criteria - design water levels benefit cost analisis
3. New vision on water management - sustainable development is the central theme - transnational estuary management (NL-FL)
Zeeschelde te Antwerpen - Loodsgebouw : langjarige tij-evolutie (algemeen)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
tijd (in jaren)
wat
erst
and
(in
cm
TAW
)
jaargemiddeld hoogwater jaargemiddeld laagwater jaargemiddelde halftij-waarde
jaargemiddelde tij-amplitude Polynoom (jaargemiddeld hoogwater) Polynoom (jaargemiddelde tij-amplitude)
Polynoom (jaargemiddelde halftij-waarde) Polynoom (jaargemiddeld laagwater)
22
Updating is necessary
We are confronted with :
- stronger tides (GHW en GLW)- rising sea level- increasing frequency of storms- increasing peak discharges of run-off
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Antwerpen : overschrijdingslijn hoogwaterstanden
3697223
6
7
8
9
10
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
Terugkeerperiode (jaar)
Data 61-75 (Theuns) Data 71-90 (Claessens) Data 71-97 (Taverniers) Prognose (2050) Prognose (2100)
Updating is necessary
60 cm
1 / 70 year (7,83 m TAW) : situation now1 / 350 year (8,24 m TAW) : with CFA KBR
24
Updating of the SIGMAPLAN
1. Introduction and situation1. Introduction and situation
2. History of the Sigmaplan
3. Updating is necessary
4. How to do it ? New approaches
25
In 5 steps towards an updated Sigmaplan
• Step 1: Define the building blocks
• Step 2: Build simulation models
• Step 3: Top down approach: defining the type of solution
• Step 4: Bottom up approach: refining the selected type of solution
• Step 5: Decision of the Flemisch government
26
Raising the dikes
27
Build a barrier ds/ Antwerp
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or small barriers at Mechelen and Lier…
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
%[
%[
ANTW ERPEN
LOKEREN
GENT
ZEMST
MECHELEN
ITEGEM
GROBBENDONK
WERCHTER
29
Controlled Inundation Areas (CIA)
30
180 potential CIA’s (15 000 ha) have been identified
32
In 5 steps towards an updated Sigmaplan
• Step 1: Define the building blocks
• Step 2: Build simulation models
• Step 3: Top down approach: defining the type of solution
• Step 4: Bottom up approach: refining the selected type of solution
• Step 5: Decision of the Flemisch government
33
Simulation of inundations
• A 1D hydrodynamal model with branches in the Western Scheldt– Simulation of inundation areas by means of paralel branches– Include effect of wind setup on the Westerscheldt– Generate upper discharges by means of hydrological models
• Apply GIS for estimating flood damages
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Modelled area
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Complete model
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Modeling of flood prone areas
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Boundary conditions / Breaches
• Composite boundary conditions for eleven return periods: T 1, 2, 5, ...1000, 2500, 4000, 10000
• Seaward boundary: waterlevel, wind• Upstream boundary: discharges
Development of breaches taken into account:• at overflow• when waterlevel enters freeboard
38
Calculate inundation damage
• Damage and victims are calculated using damage functions developed at WLH (Vanneuville), combined with the inundation maps and land use maps in GIS
• An area of 1630 km² is covered
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Model for estimating construction costs and operation & maintenance costs
dikes, quay walls, barriers, CIA ’s
45
Large storm surge barrie
• Antwerp barrier: alternative design after existing construction along Nieuwe Waterweg (Netherlands)
46
Small storm surge barriers on Rupel
• Mechelen en Lier: scaling the Beernem barrier (B)• Niel (Rupel): scaling the Hartel barrier (NL)
47
Construction period
Estimated on basis of :• available budgets for Sigma : 50 million EUR / year
48
Model for Benefit Cost Analysis
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Benefit cost analysis principle
• The zero reference scheme is the completed 1977 Sigma plan without the storm surge barrier
• All possible alternative schemes are compared to the zero reference scheme. – storm surge barrier– Dike heightening : e.g. T2500 (in 2050)– space for river: CIA 1800 ha (T1000)
50
What’s compared
Costs Benefits additional effects
Investments
Operation and maint.
NOT
•expropriation grounds
•Compensations
•taxes
Avoided costs in Flanders
Avoided costs in NL
Avoided risk in Flanders
Avoided risk in NL
Victims
Navigation
Visual disturbance
Costs for agriculture in CIA
Cost for loss of loss of acreage under cultivation
Benefits for nature
51
Discounted costs and benefits
Costs and benefits are changing in timeMainenance (small and large)avoided risks change (sea level rise, economic growth)construction time and usefull life of projects differs
Approach all construction works start in 2010Cost and benefits calculated up to 2100Residual value after 2100 Discounting : 3, 4 , 7 %
Costs and benefits discounted to 2004 Net present value of the project Pay back time
52
Results: buying guide
List
Costs
Benefits
Other effects Compare
Net Present Value of the project
Pay Back Time
Not :
• how to finance, who pays damage in case of inundation
• no effects analysis for sectors or businesses
55
In 5 steps towards an updated Sigmaplan
• Step 1: Define the building blocks
• Step 2: Build simulation models
• Step 3: Top down approach: defining the type of solution
• Step 4: Bottom up approach: refining the selected type of solution
• Step 5: Decision of the Flemisch government
56
Define a number of alternative schemes
Using protection level 2050 as a design criterion• Schemes with storm surge barrier• Schemes with dike heightening (T2500 en T4000)• Schemes with CIA’s (T1000, T2500, T4000)
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Perform the hydraulic design
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Determine the necessary CIA’s out of 15000 ha identified potential CIA’s
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1800 ha (T1000)
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2330 ha (T2500)
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2800 ha (T4000)
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6900 ha (T4000+Q)
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7700 ha (T4000+ontp+q)
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9250 ha (T4000+ontp+q+res)
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Results of top down approach
Costs Benefitstill 2100
Other PBT
year
Storm surge barrier Antwerp
387 727 - 1 41
Dikes T2500 240 691 - 27
CIA (1800 ha) 140 648 -18 17
CIA with CRT (1800 ha) 151 648 33 14
milj Euro, discounted to 2004, 4% disc.
69
Combining safety - nature
input from the ecological rehabilitation plan and ecosystem model for the Scheldt estuary !
70
ScheldtFCAwith
CRT
ringdike weir
1
2
3
4
Combining safety - nature
71
SIGMAPLAN : FLOODSCAPE & FRaME
Prosperpolder
Durme
Antwerp
KBR
73
In 5 steps towards an updated Sigmaplan
• Step 1: Define the building blocks
• Step 2: Build simulation models
• Step 3: Top down approach: defining the type of solution
• Step 4: Bottom up approach: refining the selected type of solution
• Step 5: Decision of the Flemisch government
74
Risk map anno 2100: damage centers
75
Bottom up methodology
• five damage areas (5)• start from zero reference scheme• look for optimal incremental scheme in zone 1• decide on : PBT, NPV, remaining risks• zone 2: starting from zero reference scheme + best solution zone
1• etc
76
Methodology: 5 optimization areas
77
Zone 1
Or
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Zone 2
80
KBA Zone 2: heightening of dikes ?
82
Zone 4
Kalkense meersen
WijmeersRot en Bastenakkers
or
raising dikes
83
Zone 3 (Dijle, omgeving Mechelen)
OF
SVK Niel
Battenbroek
HeindonkOude Dijlearm
84
Area 5-1
92
Final result
Costs Benefitstill 2100
Other PBTyear
SVK Oosterweel 387 727 - 1 41
Dikes T2500 240 691 - 27
CIA’s (1800 ha) 140 648 -18 17
CIA as RFA (1800 ha) 151 648 33 14
Optimal sigmaplan (With CIA1325 +656 ha)
143 752 -11 15
milj Euro, discounted to 2004 with 4% disc.
93
Sensitivity analysis
The optimal scheme will be submitted to various sensitivity tests using BCA method:
• sea level rise higher/lower/null• discount rate higher• economic growth higher/lower• changing breach modeling• changing boundary conditions• sedimentation in CIA’s• level of overflow levees in the CIA’s
94
Influence of sea level rise on Sigma2
Zeespiegelstijging 2100 0 cm 30 cm 60 cm 90 cm 120 cm
Geactualiseerde totale kosten 131,71 131,71 131,71 131,71 131,71
Geactualiseerde veiligheidsbaat tot 2100
138,13 437,44 736,75 1036,05 1335,36
Andere effecten tot 2100
landbouw -12,37 -12,37 -12,37 -12,37 -12,37
zicht omwonenden -5,18 -5,18 -5,18 -5,18 -5,18
recreatie 8,78 8,78 8,78 8,78 8,78
Totale netto geactualiseerde baten tot 2100
-2,35 296,96 596,26 895,57 1194,88
Terugverdientijd (jaar) 92 24 16 12 10
96
In 5 steps towards an updated Sigmaplan
• Step 1: Define the building blocks
• Step 2: Build simulation models
• Step 3: Top down approach: defining the type of solution
• Step 4: Bottom up approach: refining the selected type of solution
• Step 5: Decision of the Flemisch government (01-07-2005?)