Dr John Ingram Environmental Change Institute Oxford University Centre for the

Environment

Feeding a healthy world population:

policy and business challenges for the future

John Ingram

Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute

University of Oxford

john.ingram@eci.ox.ac.uk

Demand for food consumption increases as

incomes rise

A more

populous,

urban, and

wealthier

world will

demand 70-

100% more

food by

2050.

But ‘Food Security’ is already the BIG ISSUE

Independent; 16 October 2011: World Food Day

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical,

social and economic access to sufficient, safe, and

nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food

preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO 1996; 2012)

… is more than food production

… is underpinned by food systems

Now an added emphasis on

nutrition and a food systems approach

“Food Systems for

Better Nutrition”

A ‘food system’ approach

includes consideration of:

• producing, processing,

distributing, retailing and

consuming food

• availability, access and utilisation

of food

• diets, health, economics and

governance

Food systems are already failing many:

ca. 1 billion people hungry in 2012

“One new food bank opens every week in UK as more people find they

cannot afford to feed themselves and their families”

London Times, April 17th 2012

Asia & Pac

~ 650m SSA

~ 250m

Developed

~ 15m

And food systems are failing

a further >1 billion!

>1 billion with

insufficient nutrition

esp. vitamin A, iron,

iodine and zinc

20% of people

admitted to hospital in

England are nutrient

deficient; similar in

Switzerland!

Edington, et al. 2000; Impberdorf, et al, 2010; Hilton et al, 2012

Nutrition is essential for development

• Poor nutrition in early life

negatively impacts the overall

economic development of

nations.

• Improved nutrition can

increase a country’s GDP by

at least 2-3% annually.

• Investing $1 in nutrition can

result in a return of up to $30.

Chronic undernutrition: Stunting and poor brain development

UNICEF 2013

South Atlantic Ocean South Pacific Ocean

Indian Ocean

Arctic Ocean

Arctic Ocean

North Pacific Ocean

<10% 10-20%

21-30% 31-40% 41-50% >51%

POPKIN The World is Fat (Penguin, Dec 2008)

Overweight and Obesity Patterns % adults overweight or obese

1

2200

- Too much - -- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

(indicative; not to scale)

2 3 4 5 7 6 8 10 9

2050

2013

2025

kcal

/per

son

/day

Looking ahead …?

Poor nutrition can affect those who don't get enough and also those that get too much

------ Too much ------ --- Too little --- ---- Appropriate amount ----

----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little ----- --- Appropriate amount ---

Adapting to inevitable socioeconomic and

environmental change

Mitigating further environmental change

So what can we do about it?

Invest financial, human and social capitals in:

“an opportunity to do things differently; an

opportunity for investment”

Producing food

Processing & packaging food

Distributing & retailing food

Consuming food

Numerous

opportunities for

policy, investors,

business, resource

managers and

consumers to

adapt our Food

System “Activities”

Adaptation

Investing in improving food storage?

~ 15-25% losses to pests

and damp in store

Investing in reducing

catastrophic losses?

Investing in strengthening

food distribution infrastructure?

Investing in alternative foods?

Investing in novel foods?

Tuomisto & Teixeira de Mattos. Env Sci & Tech, 2011

Investing in cultured meat?

Food

47%

Feed

34%

Other

19%

FAO Food Outlook 2013

2.3 bn tons cereal produced in 2010/11

Re-allocating human edible food

back to humans?

Mitigation: reduce food losses and waste

Source: FAO, Global Food Losses and Food Waste, 2011

Reducing food waste would reduce the

environmental impact of the food system …

Avoidable UK household food and drink

waste:

17 million tonnes of CO2e

(≈ emissions of 1 in 5 cars on UK roads)

4% of the UK total water footprint

WRAP, 2011

… saving water, and saving land.

J Luo et al, Environ. Sci. Technol, 2013

“One of the surest – and arguably most affordable –

ways to feed more people sustainably is to ensure

that the food already produced is not lost or wasted

between the farm and the table.”

Jose W. Fernandez

Assistant Secretary,

Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs

US Department of State

Remarks on Preventing Postharvest Loss

February 19, 2013, Washington, DC

And reducing food waste

improves food security.

3000

2000

2500

kcal/p

ers

on

/day

Edible cereal

harvest

After 15%

lost on-

farm

After 34%

fed to

animals

After 15% lost

in food chain

Nature of food loss

On-farm

1825

2675

3150

2750

2400

1875

1650

15% reduction due

to population

increase and

environmental

change

33% reduction

in on-farm

losses

67% reduction

in feeding to

animals 50% reduction

in food chain

losses

Animal feed Food chain

‘Current’ data (in red) from FAO; & Luo, 2013

Plausible scenarios for 2025 in green

Reducing cereal loss: A plausible way ahead by 2025 50% more cereal cals/person/day, despite harvesting 15% less/person

1500

After 19%

for biofuel

1300

Biofuel

1000

90% reduction

in use for

biofuels

1775

1100

Many opportunities to interact with the

‘food’ corporate world

DRIVER

Interactions

Socioeconomic

DRIVERS Changes in:

Demographics, Economics,

Socio-political context,

Cultural context

Science & Technology

GEC DRIVERS Changes in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric

Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality,

Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents

& salinity, Sea level

‘Natural’

DRIVERS

e.g. Volcanoes

Solar cycles

Environmental feedbacks

e.g. water quality, GHGs

Socioeconomic feedbacks

e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion

Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food

Processing & Packaging food

Distributing & Retailing food

Consuming food

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Social

Welfare

Environ

Welfare Food

Utilisation Food

Access

Food

Availability

Food Security

But optimum investment needs to

understand nature of drivers and feedbacks

CIMSANS Participants (“tri-partite”)

Private Sector

Academia

Governments, etc.

30

1

2200

- Too much - -- Too little --

Billions of people

----- Appropriate amount -----

> 50% of China’s adults are already prediabetic

Yu Xu et al. 2013.China Noncommunicable Disease

Surveillance Group

2 3 4 5 7 6 8 10 9

2050

2013

2025

kcal

/per

son

/day

A challenge or an investment opportunity?

------ Too much ------ --- Too little --- ---- Appropriate amount ----

----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little ----- --- Appropriate amount ---