Environment

Planetary boundaries

• Because of industrial activity, the GHG concentrations have risen dramatically in the past century, and the earth has al-ready warmed by around 0.9 degrees C (centigrade) com-pared with the temperatures before the Industrial Revolution. On current trends, the Earth will warm by several degrees C by the end of the 21st century.

• CO2 is the inevitable byproduct of burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have created the modern economy.

Climate change

• The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere dissolves in the ocean, producing carbonic acid (H2CO3). Carbonic acid dissociates to an H+ ion and a HCO3- ion (bicarbonate). The rise of H+ signifies the increased acidity of the oceans. This rising acidity threatens various kinds of marine life, including corals, shell-fish, lobsters and very small plankton, by making it hard for these species to form their protective shells.

Ocean Acidification

Ocean pH changes

Ozone depletion

• The ozone level in the upper atmosphere protects human be-ings from receiving too much ultraviolet radiation from the sun.

• Without the scientific discoveries, technological insights, and global agreements, ozone depletion would be a grave threat to humanity.

Ozone depletion

• Farmers must put nitrogen, phosphorus, and other nutrients into the farm soils in order to ensure decent yields on their crops. Without fertilizers, yields would still be around 500kg to 1 ton per hectare, rather than the 3-5 tons or more that farm-ers can achieve on their grain production.

• The process of “eutrophication” (high nutrient concentrations leading to algal blooms and then hypoxia) is already occurring in more than 100 estuaries around the world.

Pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus

Pollution of nitrogen and phosphorus

• Of the total amount of freshwater that humanity uses, about 70% is used for agricultural production; about 20% is used by industry; and the remaining 10% is for household use, mean-ing cooking, hygiene, and other household uses.

• Farmers around the world are tapping into groundwater aquifers, taking water out of the ground faster than it is being recharged by rainfall.

• US Midwest, northern China, and the Indo-Gangetic plains of Northern India and Pakistan.

Overuse of freshwater resources

• Human land use change, whether for farms, pastures, or cities, is causing a massive disruption to ecosystems and species survival in many parts of the world.

Land use and biodiversity

The Living Planet Index of Biodiversity

• When we burn coal, biomass, diesel fuels, and other sources of pollution, small particles called aerosols are put into the air.

• Very fine particles of diameter less than 2.5 micrometers (writ-ten as PM 2.5) can cause life-threatening lung disease.

Aerosol loading

Beijing – Smoggy morning

Environment and growth

C02 in Atmosphere

• Because of our fossil fuel reliance, we would be seeing a great increase in frequency of the heat waves already evident in the maps.

• We would mostly likely be seeing mega-droughts, mega-floods, more extreme storms, more species extinction, more crop failures, a massive sea level rise over time, and a mas-sive acidification of the oceans as that CO2 dissolves into the ocean and produces carbonic acid.

Problem

• “Deep decarbonization” of the energy system

1. Energy efficiency

2. Electrification

3. Low-carbon electricity

Solution

• Just as we are going to need to find a new energy pathway based on energy efficiency and low carbon energy supplies, we are also going to need to find new farm systems, adapted to local ecological conditions and causing much less ecologi-cal damage. What is common to nearly all of the world’s major farm regions is that the farm systems are still not sustainable.

Agriculture and the environment

• There is also good reason to believe that lower fertility rates would be the truly preferred choice of most households if they have affordable and convenient access to family planning; education for their girls; child survival; and decent jobs and the absence of discrimination for women.

Population and the environment

Population and the environment

Sustainable development goals

• At Rio+20, leaders from all over the world took stock of 40 years of international environmentalism and 20 years of three big environmental treaties. What they realized was very unset-tling. All of the evidence showed that the diagnosis first made back in 1972 was fundamentally correct: that the challenges of combining economic growth with social inclusion and espe-cially environmental sustainability were still unmet, and indeed were intensifying.

UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)

• “SDGs should be action-oriented, concise and easy to communicate, limited in number, aspirational, global in nature and universally appli-cable to all countries while taking into account different national reali-ties, capacities and levels of development in respecting national poli-cies and priorities. We also recognize that the goals should address and be focused on priority areas for the achievement of sustainable development, being guided by this outcome document . Governments should drive implementation with the active involvement of all relevant stakeholders, as appropriate.

SDGs

• SDG 1: End extreme poverty including hunger. • SDG 2: Achieve economic development within planetary

boundaries • SDG 3: Ensure effective learning for all children and for youth

for their lives and their livelihoods. • SDG 4: Achieve gender equality, social inclusion, and human

rights for all • SDG 5: Achieve health and wellbeing at all ages.

SDGs

• SDG 6: Improve agricultural systems and raise rural productivity. • SDG 7: Empower inclusive, productive and resilient cities.• SDG 8: Curb human-induced climate change and ensure sustainable

energy. • SDG 9: Secure ecosystem services and biodiversity and ensure good

management of water and other natural resources. • SDG 10: Transform governance for sustainable development. The pub-

lic sector, business and other stakeholders should commit to good governance

SDGs

• Good governance for sustainable development includes transparency, accountability, access to information, participa-tion, an end to tax havens, and efforts to stamp out corruption. The international rules governing international finance, trade, corporate reporting, technology and intellectual property should be made consistent with achieving the SDGs. The fi-nancing of poverty reduction and global public goods includ-ing efforts to head off climate change should be strengthened and based on a graduated set of global rights and responsibil-ities.

No. 10

• “By defining our goal more clearly, by making it seem more manageable and less remote, we can help all people to see it, to draw hope from it and to move irresistibly towards it.”

JFK

• The first of those tools is called backcasting. Rather than forecasting (or guessing!) what will happen in 2040 or 2050, one sets the target for a certain date, and then analyzes the problem from the target to the present (backwards in time) in order to chart a course between today and the future goal. Backcasting is about asking: How can we get from here to there?

Backcasting

• What does the policy terrain really look like? What are the big challenges? What are the technological barriers to overcome between now and 2030 or other future dates?

• International Technology Roadmap For Semiconductors, where leaders in the industry get together and map out the steps ahead needed to ensure the continuation of Moore’s Law in the upcoming decades.

Technology road mapping

• There are four major dimensions of sustainable development. There are the traditional three – economic development, so-cial inclusion and environmental sustainability.

• Those three require in all cases the underpinning of a fourth dimension: good governance. Good governance will play a central role in the eventual success or failure of the Sustain-able Development Goals

Conclusion