Enrollment Projections & Classroom Needs - English FCS Planning... · MANOR, THE HICKORYCREST ... Birmingham Falls ES– Complete Fall 2009 Cliftondale ES – Complete Fall 2009 Johns

Tuesday, March 8, 2011Administrative Center

Enrollment Projections & Classroom Needs

Agenda• Enrollment Forecast

M th d l– Methodology– Enrollment/Demographic trends– FY11 Results– Adjusted seven-year enrollment forecast

• Analysis of capacity needs• Next steps• Next steps• Questions / Answers

Forecasting Methodologyg gy• SchoolSiteTM Forecasting Model

– Used in over 160 school districts

– 11th year using the data model– 11th year using the data model

– GIS-based forecasting model

• Research-based Forecasting Approach– Cohort-based model

– Explicit consideration of residential development and land use

– Detailed demographic trendsDetailed demographic trends

FCSS Enrollment Trend

91,671

95,000

83 721

85,998

88,13490,066

,

85,000

90,000

75 533

80,659

83,721

80,000

68,70769,709

71,29073,038

75,533

70,000

75,000

62,721

65,52167,097

,

65,000

60,0001997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

North Fulton Enrollment TrendHousing Market Growing at Lower Rate

Data Source: MetroStudy

North Fulton Enrollment TrendNorth Fulton Trend

North Fulton Enrollment Trend Change in Enrollment Density Fall 2009 to Fall 2010

Enrollment Decline

Enrollment Increase

Sandy Springs Enrollment Trendy p gSandy Springs Trend

Sandy Springs Enrollment TrendChange in Enrollment Density Fall 2009 to Fall 2010

Enrollment DeclineEnrollment Decline

Enrollment Increase

South Fulton Enrollment TrendHousing Market Growing at Lower Rate


South Fulton Enrollment Trend

South Fulton Enrollment TrendChange in Enrollment Density Fall 2009 to Fall 2010

Enrollment Decline

Enrollment Increase

Fall Projection ResultsNorth Fulton

2010-11 First Month

Enrollment

2010-11 Forecasted Enrollment

Over/Under Forecast

% Over/Under Forecast

Elementary 22,432 22,515 -83 -0.37% Middle 11 163 11 150 13 0 12% Middle 11,163 11,150 13 0.12% High 15,192 15,085 107 0.70%Total 48,787 48,750 37 0.08%

South Fulton El t 16 158 16 535 377 2 33% Elementary 16,158 16,535 -377 -2.33% Middle 7,637 7,889 -252 -3.30% High 9,447 9,472 -25 -0.26%Total 33,242 33,896 -654 -1.97%

S d S iSandy Springs Elementary 4,805 4,513 292 6.08% Middle 1,717 1,668 49 2.85% High 3,120 2,971 149 4.78%Total 9,642 9,152 490 5.08%

System Elementary 43,395 43,563 -168 -0.39% Middle 20,517 20,707 -190 -0.93% High 27,759 27,528 231 0.83%System Total 91,671 91,798 -127 -0.14%

*Forecasted enro llment is the midpoint o f the forecasted range and is based on the 20th Day - First month enro llment count.

*Does not include o ther A lternative Programs (GA Baptist and South M etro PsychoEd populations)

Forecast Analysis of Highly Variable Schools Elementary: Campbell, College Park, Feldwood, Gullatt, High Point, Hillside,

SL Lewis, TubmanMiddle: Paul D. West

• Closure of public housing communities• Impact of new charter school openings• Influx of kindergarten populationg p p• Redistricting notification

*Actual 2010-11 Enrollment +/- 10% of Enrollment Projections

Enrollment FutureEnrollment Future

North Fulton Housing StatisticsHousing Absorption


Active / Planned Residential DevelopmentNorth Fulton

MANOR, THE

HICKORYCRESTKINGSLEY ESTATES

BLUE VALLEY ESTATES

VALMONT

HICKORYCREST

VICKERY CREST

CRABAPPLE BROOK

HAYWOOD COMMONS

KENNEWICK PLACE

OVERLOOK AT LITCHFIELD

GRANSLEY

HEYDON HALL

KENDRIX PARK

DEERFIELD GREEN

JOHNS CREEK WALK

HENDERSON LANDING

DOUGLAS ROAD / PARK

CRABAPPLE CROSSROADS

OVERLOOK AT LITCHFIELD

PRESERVE AT JOHNS CREEK, THE

STONEWYCK

TAVISTOCK

STONEGROVE

HAYNES PARK

EATON MANOR

WESTWOOD PARK

NEWHAVEN WALK

JOHNS CREEK WALKTH/VICTORIA SQUARE

TH/CRABAPPLE STATIONGATES AT JOHNS CREEK, THE

HERITAGE AT ROSWELL

INISFREEWINDFAIRE

HEATHERTONMADISON PARKVICKERY FALLS WINTHROP PARK

KIMBALL ESTATESABBERLEY TOWNESHIP

TH/RIVERSIDE SUMMITSANCTUARY AT RIVERMONT

HIGHLANDS AT CENTENNIAL

* Green areas illustrate density of anticipated development

TH/RIVERSIDE SUMMIT

Sandy Springs Housing StatisticsHousing Absorption


Active / Planned Residential DevelopmentSandy Springs

SERRANOREGISTRY GLENMOUNT VERNON WALK

TH/LAFAYETTE SQUAREALDERWOOD ON ABERNATHYHIGHLANDS OF SANDY SPRINGS

DUNWOODY ROW

ONE RIVER PLACE

CITY WALK HEIGHTSMOUNT VERNON WALK PROMENADE AT NORTH PLACE

MYSTIC RIDGEWEST BELLE ISLE

ONE RIVER PLACE

HIGH POINT MANOR


MYSTIC RIDGE

South Fulton Housing StatisticsHousing AbsorptionSouth Fulton County

N H I t / M th f S lNew Home Inventory / Months of Supply

3500

4000

14 0

16.0

2500

3000

3500

ntor

y

10.0

12.0

14.0

pply

1500

2000

Hou

sing

Inve

n

6.0

8.0

Mon

ths

of S

u

500

1000

2.0

4.0


0

2Q02

4Q02

2Q03

4Q03

2Q04

4Q04

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

0.0

Active / Planned Residential DevelopmentSouth Fulton

ANATOLEWATERFORD COMMONS

VILLAGES OF EAST POINTWOLF CREEK COUNTRY CLUBRIVERSIDE PARK (ASTORIA)

FALLS AT CASCADE PALMS THE

SANDTOWN CENTER, THE ESTATES ATTHE VILLAGES AT SANDTOWN CENTER

BROADSTONE

REGENCY OAKS

PITTMAN PARK

HAMPTON OAKS LAKESIDE PRESERVE

LEGACY AT PALMETTO FARMS

FALLS AT CASCADE PALMS, THE

CREEKSIDE

HAMPTON OAKS

MALLORY WALK

WAVERLY PARK

MORNING CREEK

LEXINGTON PARK

RIVERTOWN MILL

WILLIAMS BLUFFPARKWAY VILLAGES

LAKESIDE PRESERVE

CEDAR GROVE VILLAGEPARKS AT CEDAR GROVE, THE

LAKES OF CEDAR GROVE

BARRINGTONSOUTH HILLS

MADISON PLACE

OAKLEY STATION

RIVERTOWN MILL

CARRINGTON POINTE

OAKLEYTOWNSHIP/EST

PARKS AT DURHAM LAKE, THE

RENAISSANCE AT SOUTH PARK, THE

DURHAM LAKE GOLF AND COUNTRY CLUB

ASBURY PARK

OAKLEYTOWNSHIP/EST


Forecast Observations / AssumptionsForecast Observations / Assumptions

North FultonNorth Fulton– Elementary growth stabilizing in some areas– Housing absorption rates continue to adjust and stabilize

H i t t i i

– Elementary growth stabilizing in some areas– Housing absorption rates continue to adjust and stabilize

H i t t i i– Housing starts are increasing– Housing starts are increasing

S d S iS d S iSandy Springs– Cohorts continue to grow at all levels based on more recent trends– In-migration of private school students; discontinuation of mandated transfer programs

Sandy Springs– Cohorts continue to grow at all levels based on more recent trends– In-migration of private school students; discontinuation of mandated transfer programsIn migration of private school students; discontinuation of mandated transfer programs– Staff will continue to work closely with the City of Sandy Springs to track redevelopment

activity

In migration of private school students; discontinuation of mandated transfer programs– Staff will continue to work closely with the City of Sandy Springs to track redevelopment

activity

Forecast Observations / AssumptionsForecast Observations / Assumptions

South FultonSouth FultonSouth Fulton– Housing absorption rates remain constant but stable

– New home starts are adjusting

South Fulton– Housing absorption rates remain constant but stable

– New home starts are adjusting New home starts are adjusting

– Staff will continue to closely monitor changes in the housing supply and demand

– Staff will continue to work closely with municipal and county governments regarding d l d f l

New home starts are adjusting

– Staff will continue to closely monitor changes in the housing supply and demand

– Staff will continue to work closely with municipal and county governments regarding d l d f lredevelopment and future closuresredevelopment and future closures

FCSS Updated Enrollment Forecast2010-11 2011-12 2017-18 Projected

First Month Forecasted Forecasted 7-YearEnrollment Enrollment* Enrollment* Growth

North FultonElementary 22,432 22,393 23,283 851Middle 11,163 11,425 11,630 467Middle 11,163 11,425 11,630 467High 15,192 15,285 16,250 1,058North Fulton Total 48,787 49,103 51,163 2,376

0Sandy Springs 0Elementary 4,805 5,103 5,619 814Middle 1,717 1,847 2,567 850High 3,120 3,280 3,946 826Sandy Springs Total 9,642 10,230 12,132 2,490

0South Fulton 0Elementary 16,158 16,223 18,855 2,697Middle 7,637 7,775 8,693 1,056High 9,447 9,487 11,120 1,673S th F lt T t l 33 242 33 485 38 668 5 426South Fulton Total 33,242 33,485 38,668 5,426

0Fulton County 0Elementary 43,395 43,719 47,757 4,362Middle 20,517 21,047 22,890 2,373High 27,759 28,052 31,316 3,557Fulton County Total 91,671 92,818 101,963 10,292*Forecast is subject to change.

Enrollments includes charter and alternative schools

Capital ImplicationsCapital Implications

Classroom Allocation ApproachClassroom Allocation Approach

S h l C CS h l C CSchool Cost-CenterTeacher AllocationsSchool Cost-CenterTeacher Allocations

Planning for New Planning for New ClassroomsClassrooms

26

Classroom Allocation ApproachState Capacity vs. Classroom Allocation Model State Capacity vs. Classroom Allocation Model

Example Elementary SchoolSC PK KD 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total

Enrollment 7 0 135 143 131 136 165 154 871

Using State Capacity Instructional Units 53 21 StudentsUsing State Capacity Instructional Units 53(Elementary Prototype) State Capacity 850

Unhoused students 21

or<1 CR need

Example Elementary SchoolSC PK KD 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total

Enrollment 7 0 135 143 131 136 165 154 871Enrollment 7 0 135 143 131 136 165 154 871Student: Teacher Ratio 20 21 21 21 28 28Classrooms 7 7 6 6 6 6Using Classroom Allocation Model

Instructional Units 53S ll I t ti l S 1Small Instructional Space 1

Total Spaces available 54

General Ed Classrooms K-G5 Needed 38

Cl f E h d I t ti l P 17

9 CR needor

Classrooms for Enhanced Instructional Programs 17PK, EIP, ESOL, TAG, Title I, Special Ed

Flexible Instructional Space (Labs, Media, Specials) 8Comp. Lab, T. Plng, Media, Art, Music, PE

27

or4.5 portables

Total Classrooms Required: 63Additional classrooms needed beyond the building 9 classrooms

Classroom Allocation ApproachClassroom Allocation Approach

Prototype ElementaryPrototype Elementary

9 Additional Classrooms Needed

8 Constants18 I t P

28

18 Instr. Programs40 Gen. Ed CRs

Capital III ProjectsCapital III ProjectsB d d t ti i F ll 2007B d d t ti i F ll 2007

Oakley ES – Complete Fall 2007Renaissance MS – Complete Fall 2007*

Board approved construction since Fall 2007Board approved construction since Fall 2007

Renaissance MS Complete Fall 2007Woodland MS Replacement – Complete Fall 2007*

Lake Forest ES – Complete Fall 2008*W tl k R l t HS C l t F ll 2008Westlake Replacement HS – Complete Fall 2008

Ison Springs ES – Complete Fall 2009Birmingham Falls ES– Complete Fall 2009

Cliftondale ES – Complete Fall 2009Johns Creek HS – Complete Fall 2009

Langston Hughes HS – Complete Fall 2009*Langston Hughes HS Complete Fall 2009Ridgeview MS – Complete Fall 2009Feldwood ES – Complete Fall 2010

B th B d HS Sit A ti i t d F ll 2012Bethany Bend HS Site – Anticipated Fall 2012Banneker HS Replacement Site – Anticipated Fall 2012

* SPLOST II Project* SPLOST II Project

Capital III ProjectsCapital III ProjectsB d d t ti i F ll 2007B d d t ti i F ll 2007

Roswell HS Addition – Complete Fall 2007Mimosa ES Addition Complete Fall 2008

Board approved construction since Fall 2007Board approved construction since Fall 2007

Mimosa ES Addition – Complete Fall 2008Roswell North ES Addition – Complete Fall 2009Mountain Park ES Addition – Complete Fall 2009

Bethune ES Addition – Complete Fall 2009Love T. Nolan ES Addition – Complete Fall 2009

Barnwell ES Addition – Complete Fall 2010pAlpharetta ES Addition – Complete Fall 2010

Science Addition Chattahoochee HS – Complete Fall 2010Science Addition Centennial HS Complete Fall 2010Science Addition Centennial HS – Complete Fall 2010

Band Addition Chattahoochee HS – Complete Fall 2010Band Addition Centennial HS – Complete Fall 2010Band Addition Creekside HS – Complete Fall 2010

* SPLOST II Project* SPLOST II Project

Analysis of Classroom NeedsNorth Fulton

North 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ElementaryEnrollment 21,621 21,624 21,548 21,685 21,803 22,014 22,321 22,514GA DOE 23,325 23,325 23,325 23,325 23,325 23,325 23,325 23,325+ Over / - Under -1,704 -1,701 -1,777 -1,640 -1,522 -1,311 -1,004 -811CR Need 14 0 18 0 23 0 25 0 34 0 41 0 54 0 62 0CR Need 14.0 18.0 23.0 25.0 34.0 41.0 54.0 62.0

MiddleEnrollment 10,538 10,712 10,912 10,943 10,990 10,931 10,898 10,917GA DOE 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050 11,050+ Over / - Under -512 -338 -138 -107 -60 -119 -152 -133CR Need 47.3 56.8 61.8 64.3 64.8 63.3 63.3 60.8

HighEnrollment 14 601 14 700 14 905 15 008 15 120 15 407 15 553 15 665Enrollment 14,601 14,700 14,905 15,008 15,120 15,407 15,553 15,665GA DOE 13,700 13,700 13,700 13,700 13,700 13,700 13,700 13,700+ Over / - Under 901 1,000 1,205 1,308 1,420 1,707 1,853 1,965

* Figures based on first-month counts while subsequent years based on projected enrollmentg q y p j

Enrollments include Pre-K but do not include charter or alternative schools

Projected CR Need based on Superintendent's recommended class size

Analysis of Classroom NeedsN th El t 2017 18North Elementary 2017-18

Classroom Need

SUMMITHILL ES

BIRMINGHAMFALLS ES

greater than 8

5 to 8

-2 to 4

-5 to -3

CRABAPPLECROSSING ES

ALPHARETTA ESMANNINGOAKS ES

CREEK

COGBURNWOODS ES

-5 to -3

less than -5

FINDLEYOAKS ES

LAKEWINDWARD ES

SHAKERAG ES

ABBOTTSHILL ES

CREEKVIEW ES

OCEE ESNEWPROSPECT ES

SWEETAPPLE ES

MOUNTAINPARK ES

ROSWELLNORTH ES

HEMBREESPRINGS ES

WILSON

RIVER

MEDLOCKBRIDGE ES

BARNWELL ES

ESTHERJACKSON ES

DOLVIN ES

STATE BRIDGECROSSING ES

NORTHWOOD ES

MIMOSA ES

HILLSIDE ES

SOCREEK ES

RIVEREVES ES

Analysis of Classroom NeedsN th Middl 2017 18North Middle 2017-18

Classroom Need

FREEMANVILLEMS SITE

greater than 10

6 to 10

-4 to 5

-9 to -5

NORTHWESTERN MSHOPEWELL MS

less than -9

WEBBBRIDGE MS

TAYLORROAD MS

RIVERTRAIL MSHAYNES

BRIDGE MSCRABAPPLE MS

ELKINSPOINTE MS

BRIDGE MSCRABAPPLE MS

AUTREYMILL MS

HOLCOMBBRIDGE MS

Analysis of Classroom NeedsN th Hi h 2017 18North High 2017-18

Above/BelowState Capacity

BETHANY/COGBURN

greater than 500

151 to 500

-50 to 150

-299 to -51

State Capacity

MILTON HS

BETHANY/COGBURNHS SITE

less than -299

CHATTAHOOCHEE HS

ROSWELL HS

ALPHARETTA HS

CENTENNIAL HS

NORTHVIEW HS

JOHNSCREEK HS

Does not include impact of Bethany Bend HS Site Opening 2012

Analysis of Classroom NeedsSandy Springs

Sandy Springs 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ElementaryEnrollment 4,805 5,103 5,284 5,409 5,547 5,617 5,612 5,619GA DOE 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600+ Over / - Under -795 -497 -316 -191 -53 17 12 19CR Need -6.0 6.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 22.0 18.0 21.0

MiddleEnrollment 1,717 1,847 1,834 1,976 2,110 2,274 2,420 2,567GA DOE 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075 2,075+ O / U d 358 228 241 99 35 199 345 492+ Over / - Under -358 -228 -241 -99 35 199 345 492CR Need -7.0 -2.5 -3.0 2.0 6.5 12.5 12.5 24.0

HighEnrollment 3 120 3 280 3 296 3 361 3 323 3 510 3 738 3 946Enrollment 3,120 3,280 3,296 3,361 3,323 3,510 3,738 3,946GA DOE 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100 3,100+ Over / - Under 20 180 196 261 223 410 638 846

* Figures based on first-month counts while subsequent years based on projected enrollment Figures based on first month counts while subsequent years based on projected enrollment



Analysis of Classroom NeedsSandy Spring Elementary 2017 18Sandy Spring Elementary 2017-18

ISON SPRINGS ESDUNWOODY SPRINGS ES

WOODLAND CHARTER ES

SPALDING DRIVE CHARTER ES

greater than 8

5 to 8

Classroom Need

HIGH POINT ES

LAKE FOREST ESHEARDS FERRY ES -2 to 4

-5 to -3

less than -5

Analysis of Classroom NeedsSandy Springs Middle 2017-18

SANDY SPRINGS MS

greater than 10

6 to 10

Classroom Need

RIDGEVIEW MS

-4 to 5

-9 to -5

less than -9

Analysis of Classroom NeedsSandy Springs High 2017-18

Ab /B l

NORTH SPRINGS HS


greater than 500

151 to 500RIVERWOOD HS-50 to 150

-299 to -51

less than -299

Analysis of Classroom NeedsSouth Fulton

South 2010* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017ElementaryEnrollment 15,543 15,513 15,516 15,849 16,209 16,695 17,404 18,145GA DOE 18,550 18,050 18,050 18,050 18,050 18,050 18,050 18,050+ Over / - Under -3,007 -2,537 -2,534 -2,201 -1,841 -1,355 -646 95CR Need -48.0 -21.0 -14.0 -11.0 11.0 28.0 56.0 88.0

MiddleEnrollment 6,733 6,876 7,030 7,009 7,018 7,067 7,418 7,794GA DOE 7,775 7,775 7,775 7,775 7,775 7,775 7,775 7,775+ Over / Under 1 042 899 745 766 757 708 357 19+ Over / - Under -1,042 -899 -745 -766 -757 -708 -357 19CR Need -41.5 -35.0 -29.5 -30.0 -29.0 -28.0 -28.0 0.5

HighEnrollment 8,788 8,717 8,844 9,065 9,389 9,747 10,009 10,350Enrollment 8,788 8,717 8,844 9,065 9,389 9,747 10,009 10,350GA DOE 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400+ Over / - Under -612 -683 -556 -335 -11 347 609 950

* Figures based on first-month counts while subsequent years based on projected enrollment



Analysis of Classroom NeedsSouth Elementary 2017-18

greater than 8

5 to 8

2 to 4

Classroom Need

RANDOLPH ES

PARKLANE ESOAK KNOLL ES

HAPEVILLE ESCLIFTONDALE ES

MOUNT OLIVE ES

CONLEY HILLS ES

STONEWALL TELL ES

HAMILTON E HOLMES ES

-2 to 4

-5 to -3

less than -5

HERITAGE ES

BROOKVIEW ES

RENAISSANCE ES

SEABORN LEE ES

HARRIET TUBMAN ES

DERRICK ROAD ES SITE

OAKLEY ES

BETHUNE ESGULLATT ES

FELDWOOD ES

CAMPBELL ESS L LEWIS ES

LOVE NOLAN ESEVOLINE WEST ES

LIBERTY POINT ES

PALMETTO ES

Analysis of Classroom NeedsSouth Middle 2017-18

Classroom Need

SANDTOWN MS

greater than 10

6 to 10

-4 to 5

9 t 5

Classroom Need

SANDTOWN MS

WOODLAND MS

PAUL D WEST MS

-9 to -5

less than -9

MCNAIR MS

CAMP CREEK MS

RENAISSANCE MS

BEAR CREEK MS

Analysis of Classroom NeedsSouth High 2017-18


greater than 500

151 to 500

-50 to 150

-299 to -51

less than -299WESTLAKE HS

TRI-CITIES HS

BANNEKER HS

LANGSTON HUGHES HS

BANNEKER HS

CREEKSIDE HS

Does not include impact of Banneker HS Replacement Opening 2012

Next StepsNext Steps

• M h B d M ti• March Board Meeting– Master Plan

• April Work SessionR ti P– Renovation Program

• May Board Meetingy g– Capital IV

Q i / C / IQ i / C / IQuestions / Comments / InputQuestions / Comments / Input

Fulton County School System Historic Enrollment / Updated Seven-Year Projections

North Fulton

Centennial / Roswell Clusters schnum 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

GADOE Capacity (SPLOST) Portables

2017-18 CR Need

Hembree Springs ES 608 783 823 743 795 793 805 810 822 850 851 852 850 2 7Hillside ES 604 713 716 805 740 760 771 783 811 798 794 796 850 2 3Jackson, Esther ES 243 660 693 642 638 668 681 688 698 699 694 686 625 5 16Mimosa ES 288 803 855 1,043 1,089 1,145 1,168 1,198 1,210 1,224 1,219 1,212 1,000 2 16Mountain Park ES 330 799 823 901 879 859 878 877 871 876 879 880 1,000 0 -5Northwood ES 662 883 885 727 719 736 728 719 737 736 742 739 800 0 1River Eves ES 158 705 743 759 772 786 796 781 788 781 785 776 775 0 7Roswell North ES 372 794 851 958 1,006 1,050 1,082 1,110 1,112 1,118 1,119 1,122 1,000 0 4Sweet Apple ES 155 903 894 833 779 758 758 738 746 760 761 765 950 4 -1Elementary Totals 7,043 7,283 7,411 7,417 7,555 7,667 7,704 7,795 7,842 7,844 7,828 7,850 15 48

Crabapple MS 686 853 866 770 794 832 877 888 930 971 999 990 1,000 4 14Elkins Pointe MS 700 906 899 891 890 918 977 1,054 1,092 1,078 1,088 1,102 1,175 0 1Haynes Bridge MS 688 654 672 625 645 644 665 678 683 710 681 691 1,000 0 6Holcomb Bridge MS 690 669 651 669 704 735 730 759 755 810 821 862 1,000 1 6Middle Totals 3,082 3,088 2,955 3,033 3,129 3,249 3,379 3,460 3,569 3,589 3,645 4,175 5 27

Centennial HS 866 2,036 2,026 1,931 1,940 1,902 1,892 1,944 1,966 2,000 2,118 2,091 1,925 7Roswell HS 852 2,517 2,428 2,381 2,463 2,434 2,443 2,467 2,516 2,602 2,758 2,874 2,000 7High Totals 4,553 4,454 4,312 4,403 4,336 4,335 4,411 4,482 4,602 4,876 4,965 3,925 14Cluster Area Totals 14,678 14,825 14,678 14,853 15,020 15,251 15,494 15,737 16,013 16,309 16,438 15,950 34

Chattahoochee / Johns Creek / Northview Clusters 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18


2017-18 CR Need

Abbotts Hill ES 601 767 791 836 764 751 733 738 710 704 733 748 850 1 -3Barnwell ES 42 723 729 751 769 780 796 778 777 782 781 781 850 3 -2Dolvin ES 150 925 972 967 952 927 903 897 867 878 901 915 1,050 2 -2Findley Oaks ES 160 835 816 794 753 725 713 717 731 717 740 744 875 1 -4Medlock Bridge ES 270 707 680 681 668 648 630 621 615 644 649 655 825 2 -7Ocee ES 606 785 793 796 751 737 721 723 728 716 726 725 850 2 -2Shakerag ES 520 827 809 792 805 795 767 769 798 819 856 894 875 1 2State Bridge Crossing ES 532 718 730 758 757 773 768 790 790 789 791 793 800 2 1Wilson Creek ES 607 899 861 890 868 845 818 830 821 827 846 866 850 1 -2Elementary Totals 7,186 7,181 7,265 7,087 6,981 6,849 6,863 6,837 6,876 7,023 7,121 7,825 15 -19

Autrey Mill MS 703 1,178 1,165 1,247 1,314 1,355 1,350 1,347 1,367 1,313 1,292 1,256 1,200 0 3River Trail MS 701 1,509 1,510 1,573 1,486 1,485 1,462 1,431 1,348 1,289 1,262 1,274 1,175 9 6Taylor Road MS 698 958 955 939 926 923 986 942 952 929 931 904 1,100 0 -2Middle Totals 3,645 3,630 3,759 3,726 3,763 3,798 3,720 3,667 3,531 3,485 3,434 3,475 9 6

Chattahoochee HS 880 2,189 2,232 1,858 1,734 1,747 1,779 1,785 1,799 1,839 1,821 1,815 1,875 1Johns Creek HS 741 1,219 1,624 1,909 2,036 2,053 2,083 2,131 2,102 2,132 1,900 0Northview HS 751 2,685 2,796 2,133 1,893 1,712 1,678 1,648 1,636 1,629 1,543 1,509 1,875 5High Totals 4,874 5,028 5,210 5,251 5,368 5,493 5,486 5,518 5,599 5,466 5,456 5,650 6Cluster Area Totals 15,705 15,839 16,234 16,064 16,112 16,140 16,069 16,022 16,006 15,974 16,011 16,950 30

Historic and forecasted enrollments are based upon 1st month enrollment counts. The enrollment totals include pre-k and south and north metro programs. **CR Need based on the Classroom Allocation ModelOperational Plng_3/3/2011


Milton / Alpharetta Clusters 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18


2017-18 CR Need

Alpharetta ES 24 723 702 711 684 677 666 669 672 690 692 693 900 2 2Birmingham Falls ES 617 765 737 720 715 743 743 757 787 808 850 0 -2Cogburn Woods ES 611 942 916 1,007 916 933 925 946 965 983 994 993 850 4 6Crabapple Crossing ES 380 852 869 757 736 741 742 763 788 819 828 834 800 1 0Creek View ES 609 1,010 975 960 946 929 914 915 923 941 989 1,026 850 4 7Lake Windward ES 654 880 880 851 870 857 846 838 819 826 830 841 875 5 11Manning Oaks ES 580 945 949 756 826 860 878 901 916 926 934 937 850 1 6New Prospect ES 182 631 601 612 571 545 531 529 528 525 535 532 825 0 -6Summit Hill ES 414 1,015 1,039 794 831 826 815 814 817 829 865 901 850 4 9Elementary Totals 6,998 6,931 7,213 7,117 7,088 7,032 7,118 7,171 7,296 7,454 7,565 7,650 21 33

Hopewell MS 699 1,068 1,115 1,151 1,187 1,206 1,246 1,246 1,291 1,321 1,336 1,341 1,175 0 1Northwestern MS 682 1,205 1,233 1,247 1,262 1,281 1,327 1,310 1,292 1,255 1,298 1,354 1,075 4 22Webb Bridge MS 695 1,337 1,364 1,357 1,330 1,333 1,292 1,288 1,280 1,255 1,190 1,143 1,150 6 5North Middle School SiteMiddle Totals 3,610 3,712 3,755 3,779 3,820 3,865 3,844 3,863 3,831 3,824 3,838 3,400 10 28

Alpharetta HS 754 2,207 2,169 2,254 2,321 2,291 2,305 2,260 2,205 2,204 2,205 2,273 2,175 0Milton HS 804 2,244 2,336 2,542 2,626 2,705 2,772 2,851 2,915 3,002 3,006 2,971 1,950 12Bethany Bend HS SiteHigh Totals 4,451 4,505 4,796 4,947 4,996 5,077 5,111 5,120 5,206 5,211 5,244 4,125 12Cluster Area Totals 15,059 15,148 15,764 15,843 15,904 15,974 16,073 16,154 16,333 16,489 16,647 15,175 43

South Fulton

Banneker / Tri-Cities Clusters 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18


2017-18 CR Need

Bethune ES 252 690 695 694 747 736 721 730 744 752 760 768 825 0 -1Brookview ES 54 577 642 532 499 496 489 486 484 480 484 488 550 3 6College Park ES 48 364 380 355 331Conley Hills ES 120 602 543 528 488 503 496 485 487 490 497 501 700 0 -4Feldwood ES 626 789 668 697 743 774 813 837 871 875 0 4Hapeville ES 210 661 693 741 733 665 676 681 698 706 723 741 825 1 0Heritage ES 602 948 1,024 906 738 726 704 709 687 684 692 697 875 2 6Holmes, Hamilton E. ES 610 633 649 647 455 737 734 725 724 726 728 739 950 0 -6Lewis, S.L. ES 260 731 721 728 552 548 521 528 540 557 579 594 675 4 5Mount Olive ES 324 503 532 529 514 608 603 595 605 608 608 611 725 0 -2Nolan, Love T. ES 354 766 782 810 756 724 711 701 713 721 737 748 850 0 -8Oak Knoll ES 396 570 593 609 587 467 478 494 491 498 498 500 575 4 0Parklane ES 420 462 460 485 419 457 465 456 461 459 460 464 625 0 -5Tubman, Harriet ES 248 478 529 506 546 563 570 573 576 590 593 596 675 0 1Elementary Totals 7,985 8,243 8,070 8,108 7,898 7,865 7,906 7,984 8,084 8,196 8,318 9,725 14 -4

McNair, Ronald MS 687 836 884 847 824 854 894 889 842 833 832 872 1,025 0 -6West, Paul D. MS 694 943 874 843 765 765 760 772 746 766 769 790 1,175 0 -16Woodland MS 693 995 1,027 1,033 1,066 1,070 1,056 1,043 1,053 1,056 1,047 1,054 1,200 0 -10Middle Totals 2,774 2,785 2,723 2,655 2,689 2,710 2,704 2,641 2,655 2,648 2,716 3,400 0 -31

Banneker HS 740 1,683 1,799 1,309 1,308 1,375 1,469 1,566 1,686 1,728 1,735 1,760 1,475 8Tri-Cities HS 894 1,793 1,847 1,899 1,849 1,778 1,690 1,606 1,621 1,552 1,577 1,576 2,000 4Banneker HS Replacement (additional capacity)High Totals 3,476 3,646 3,208 3,157 3,153 3,159 3,172 3,307 3,280 3,312 3,336 3,475 12Cluster Area Totals 14,235 14,674 14,001 13,920 13,740 13,734 13,782 13,932 14,019 14,156 14,370 16,600 26



Creekside / Langston Hughes / Westlake Clusters 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18


2017-18 CR Need

Campbell ES 672 918 892 863 890 803 776 802 799 813 824 832 900 2 4Cliftondale ES 164 834 845 881 884 922 925 964 1,004 1,052 850 0 9Gullatt ES 188 564 542 560 268 466 466 463 459 452 459 473 525 2 0Lee, Seaborn ES 255 600 614 602 535 502 487 484 477 483 496 506 575 5 1Liberty Point ES 605 791 722 713 690 666 664 675 684 689 708 743 850 0 -1Oakley ES 615 781 833 889 754 753 777 831 889 935 1,002 1,063 875 2 12Palmetto ES 410 528 547 524 516 513 535 557 578 618 789 957 625 4 21Randolph, A.P. ES 492 622 572 680 653 655 631 655 676 692 701 709 675 0 5Renaissance ES 620 966 1,082 684 702 759 789 837 913 1,016 1,135 1,258 850 0 13Stonewall Tell ES 525 1,004 1,094 814 827 871 898 933 1,002 1,099 1,194 1,298 850 3 17West, Evoline ES 648 807 892 894 755 746 744 784 823 850 896 936 750 5 11Derrick Road Area ES SiteElementary Totals 7,581 7,790 8,057 7,435 7,615 7,651 7,943 8,225 8,611 9,208 9,827 8,325 23 92

Bear Creek MS 696 985 1,002 983 1,037 1,098 1,137 1,115 1,118 1,170 1,342 1,492 1,075 0 12Camp Creek MS 685 791 716 804 785 812 773 727 704 689 713 705 950 4 7Renaissance MS 706 1,023 1,113 1,186 1,154 1,173 1,255 1,308 1,359 1,380 1,477 1,581 1,175 3 14Sandtown MS 697 983 1,020 1,131 1,102 1,104 1,155 1,155 1,196 1,173 1,238 1,300 1,175 0 -1Highway 138 Area MS SiteMiddle Totals 3,782 3,851 4,104 4,078 4,187 4,320 4,305 4,377 4,412 4,770 5,078 4,375 7 32

Creekside HS 870 2,481 2,633 1,376 1,301 1,438 1,621 1,810 1,991 2,124 2,264 2,420 1,850 0Langston Hughes HS 742 2,186 2,239 2,016 1,903 1,814 1,773 1,907 1,985 2,158 2,150 0Westlake HS 914 2,065 2,351 1,954 2,091 2,110 2,161 2,269 2,318 2,436 2,448 2,436 1,925 0High Totals 4,546 4,984 5,516 5,631 5,564 5,685 5,893 6,082 6,467 6,697 7,014 5,925 0Cluster Area Totals 15,909 16,625 17,677 17,144 17,366 17,656 18,141 18,684 19,490 20,675 21,919 18,625 30

Sandy Springs

North Springs / Riverwood 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18


2017-18 CR Need

Dunwoody Springs Charter ES 981 842 889 664 737 736 752 774 780 787 784 782 850 2 2Heards Ferry ES 216 588 398 483 558 614 665 673 706 719 712 709 625 2 5High Point ES 228 815 617 638 724 774 794 796 837 854 863 876 850 1 4Ison Springs ES 618 653 696 705 715 717 711 704 704 703 850 0 -3Lake Forrest ES 444 601 639 741 830 860 881 900 912 903 896 850 0 8Spalding Drive Charter ES 980 692 706 416 468 508 531 560 577 601 600 600 575 2 3Woodland Charter ES 996 896 872 796 881 936 967 1,008 1,036 1,040 1,046 1,053 1,000 0 2Elementary Totals 3,833 4,083 4,289 4,805 5,103 5,284 5,409 5,547 5,617 5,612 5,619 5,600 7 21

Ridgeview MS 974 594 631 743 821 924 912 1,041 1,136 1,238 1,311 1,414 1,200 0 10Sandy Springs MS 692 717 753 822 896 923 922 935 974 1,036 1,109 1,153 875 4 15Middle Totals 1,311 1,384 1,565 1,717 1,847 1,834 1,976 2,110 2,274 2,420 2,567 2,075 4 24

North Springs HS 816 1,297 1,339 1,312 1,460 1,622 1,580 1,573 1,573 1,588 1,608 1,681 1,775 0Riverwood HS 845 1,237 1,362 1,461 1,660 1,658 1,716 1,788 1,750 1,922 2,130 2,265 1,325 4High Totals 2,534 2,701 2,773 3,120 3,280 3,296 3,361 3,323 3,510 3,738 3,946 3,100 4Cluster Area Totals 7,678 8,168 8,627 9,642 10,230 10,414 10,746 10,980 11,401 11,770 12,132 10,775 15



Start-up Charter, Open Enrollment, & Alternative Schools 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18Amana Academy Charter ES 987 306 362 361 393 380 380 380 380 380 380 380Amana Academy Charter MS 990 74 66 92 98 148 148 148 148 148 148 148Connected Academy 94 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Fulton Science Academy MS 995 435 460 506 508 548 548 548 548 548 548 548Fulton Sunshine Academy 928 418 389 389 389 389 389 389 389Hapeville Charter MS 988 420 543 548 573 526 526 526 526 526 526 526Hapeville Charter Career Academy 982 0 0 137 353 517 517 517 517 517 517 517Independence HS 938 350 286 330 305 315 315 315 315 315 315 315Kipp Charter ES 994 84 89 90 93 94 94 94 94 94 94 94Kipp Charter MS 986 222 235 225 235 230 230 230 230 230 230 230Main Street Academy ES 926 522 616 616 616 616 616 616 616Main Street Academy MS 927 48 98 98 98 98 98 98 98McClarin HS (Alt) 936 265 303 313 241 210 210 210 210 210 210 210North Crossroads MS 962 36 23 26 19 17 17 17 17 17 17 17North Second Chance HS 972 85 80 72 54 41 41 41 41 41 41 41South Second Chance HS 971 95 110 78 65 43 43 43 43 43 43 43South Crossroads MS 961 81 54 47 48 45 45 45 45 45 45 45TEACH Charter 989 187 205 260 232 229 229 229 229 229 229 229Totals 2,734 2,855 3,085 4,205 4,446 4,446 4,446 4,446 4,446 4,446 4,446

Fulton County School System Totals 85,998 88,134 90,066 91,671 92,818 93,615 94,751 95,955 97,708 99,819 101,963


Documents

Enrollment Projections & Classroom Needs - English FCS Planning... · MANOR, THE HICKORYCREST ... Birmingham Falls ES– Complete Fall 2009 Cliftondale ES – Complete Fall 2009 Johns