Enrollment Projections 2008 – 2018 Faculty Senate Meeting February 19, 2008 Dr. Terrence Curran Associate Provost for Enrollment Management Faculty Senate

Enrollment Projections2008 – 2018

Enrollment Projections2008 – 2018

Faculty Senate Meeting

February 19, 2008

Dr. Terrence Curran

Associate Provost for Enrollment Management

Faculty Senate Meeting

February 19, 2008

Dr. Terrence Curran

Associate Provost for Enrollment Management

Enrollment ManagementEnrollment Management 1. Increase Student Success

Retention Rates

Graduation rates

2. Increase Student AccessAffordability

Pipeline of Quality Ready Students

Partnerships

Outreach Education

Scholarships and Financial Aid

3. Expand Market ShareOut -of-State

Transfer Students

Veterans

Male Students

Underrepresented Populations

Graduate Students

Non-Traditional Students

Strategic Academic Disciplines

1. Increase Student SuccessRetention Rates

Graduation rates

2. Increase Student AccessAffordability

Pipeline of Quality Ready Students

Partnerships

Outreach Education

Scholarships and Financial Aid

3. Expand Market ShareOut -of-State

Transfer Students

Veterans

Male Students

Underrepresented Populations

Graduate Students

Non-Traditional Students

Strategic Academic Disciplines

1. Clear Enrollment Goals 2. Defined Capacity. 3. Establish Processes that Enable Student Success. 4. Optimum Enrollment 5. Effective Academic Programs 6. Tuition and Revenue 7. Continuity and Consistency in Institutional Planning 8. Increased Organizational Efficiency 9. Improve Service Levels 10. Student and Faculty Satisfaction

1. Clear Enrollment Goals 2. Defined Capacity. 3. Establish Processes that Enable Student Success. 4. Optimum Enrollment 5. Effective Academic Programs 6. Tuition and Revenue 7. Continuity and Consistency in Institutional Planning 8. Increased Organizational Efficiency 9. Improve Service Levels 10. Student and Faculty Satisfaction

Strategic Enrollment Plan Results In…..Strategic Enrollment Plan Results In…..

UNCW Enrollment AssumptionsUNCW Enrollment Assumptions

1. Increase quality of Freshman class.

2. Narrow “quality gap” between freshman and transfers.

3. Increase diversity.

4. Maintain commitment to 8 county service region.

5. Increase education enrollment and teacher production.

6. Increase nursing graduates.

7. Sustain enrollments in premier academic programs.

8. Increase enrollments in emerging academic disciplines.

9. Achieve freshman to sophomore retention to 90% by 2012.

10. Improve 4 year graduation rate to 50% by 2012.



13. UNCW will address UNC Tomorrow.

1. Increase quality of Freshman class.

2. Narrow “quality gap” between freshman and transfers.

3. Increase diversity.

4. Maintain commitment to 8 county service region.

5. Increase education enrollment and teacher production.

6. Increase nursing graduates.

7. Sustain enrollments in premier academic programs.

8. Increase enrollments in emerging academic disciplines.

9. Achieve freshman to sophomore retention to 90% by 2012.




13. UNCW will address UNC Tomorrow.

UNC TomorrowUNC Tomorrow

Increasing Access to Higher Education

The UNC Tomorrow Commission found that “UNC should increase access to higher education for all North Carolinians, particularly for underserved regions, underrepresented populations, and non-traditional students.” (Sec. 4.2)

Campuses are asked to review existing academic programs, student support systems, distance education, online programs, potential flexible program offerings, and student recruitment efforts, and identify ways in which they will institutionalize:

Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) in underserved regions of the state

Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) for non-traditional students and life-long learners, including encouraging the completion of baccalaureate degrees

Strengthening and streamlining articulation agreements and collaborative programs, including academic advising programs, with Community Colleges

Increasing Access to Higher Education

The UNC Tomorrow Commission found that “UNC should increase access to higher education for all North Carolinians, particularly for underserved regions, underrepresented populations, and non-traditional students.” (Sec. 4.2)

Campuses are asked to review existing academic programs, student support systems, distance education, online programs, potential flexible program offerings, and student recruitment efforts, and identify ways in which they will institutionalize:

Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) in underserved regions of the state

Increasing access to their educational programs (academic courses, degree programs and certificate programs) for non-traditional students and life-long learners, including encouraging the completion of baccalaureate degrees

Strengthening and streamlining articulation agreements and collaborative programs, including academic advising programs, with Community Colleges

•Increasing the educational attainment of underrepresented populations, especially African-American males, Hispanics, and American Indians, and increasing student diversity on their campuses

•Helping to ensure that all students are better prepared to enter and succeed academically in college, including increasing retention and graduation rates and strengthening programs such as Early College and Summer Bridge

•Increasing access through the use of distance education and online degree, certificate, and licensure programs.

•Other initiatives identified by the campus that respond to this Section of the UNC Tomorrow Commission report

•Serving as a model for accommodating the needs of persons with disabilities.

In developing plans to expand access, diversity, and opportunities for student success, campuses are asked to consider the related suggested strategies identified by the UNC Tomorrow Commission.

Ten-Year Enrollment Plans: Campuses are asked to factor anticipated enrollment increases based on the plans developing under this section into their Ten-Year Enrollment Plans (preliminary information on Ten-Year Enrollment Plans due February 29, 2008; final plans due May 1, 2008)

The University of North Carolina General Administration

7

NC Public High School GraduatesNC Public High School Graduates

6021

1

5749

5

5927

2

5677

0

5788

6

5904

9

5977

6

6188

7

6301

4

6568

1

6956

8

7185

3

7469

1

7694

0

8191

9

8323

4

8367

9

8518

3

8425

2

8620

7

8622

9

8769

8

9060

2

9585

1

9903

8

1129

82

1148

54

1148

23

1173

83

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1992-931993-941994-951995-961996-971997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-21

School Year

Gra

du

ates

Actual Predicted

UNC-GA IRA/EnrDiv.UG001/10-2-07


8

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Census Model

Headcount

County Diversity Model

Average of Models

HS Grads Projection Model

(actual)

Relation of the Models

(Total Projected Demand to 2017) Relation of the Models

(Total Projected Demand to 2017)

UNC-GA Academic Planning/ARMwmd/2-16-07


9

242,795247,525

268,778

281,295

260,087

252,554

237,347230,880

225,209218,070

210,226

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Headcount

(actual)

Projection of Enrollment Demand for UNC:Three-Model Average

Projection of Enrollment Demand for UNC:Three-Model Average


10

University of North Carolina SystemEnrollment and Changing Diversity for the State

University of North Carolina SystemEnrollment and Changing Diversity for the State


Race/ 2007-2017Ethnicity # % # % # % # % % Change

White 17,204 64.3% 49,223 64.0% 51,210 61.5% 53,323 47.2% 4.1%

Black 6,778 25.3% 20,836 27.1% 24,618 29.6% 27,864 24.7% 13.2%

Am Indian 277 1.0% 831 1.1% 1,017 1.2% 1,387 1.2% 36.4%

Asian 872 3.3% 1,728 2.2% 1,951 2.3% 4,256 3.8% 118.1%

Hispanic 665 2.5% 3,188 4.1% 4,438 5.3% 26,152 23.1% 489.3%

Other 968 3.6% 1,134 1.5% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% N/A

Total 26,764 100.0% 76,940 100.0% 83,234 100.0% 112,982 100.0% 35.7%

Projected High School Graduates 2007-2008

Fall 2006 Fr. Enrollment

2005-06 HS Graduates 2017-2018

Note: Freshmen enrollment figures represent students from the state. High school graduates and projected graduates are for public schools only.


11

Projected UNC Enrollment Demand for Fall 2017 Average of Projection Models

Projected UNC Enrollment Demand for Fall 2017 Average of Projection Models


Institution Enrollment Institution Enrollment

ASU 18,498 UNCA 4,558

ECU 33,195 UNC-CH 35,311

ECSU 3,978 UNCC 29,524

FSU 9,833 UNCG 24,165

NCA&T 14,641 UNCP 9,485

NCCU 13,513 UNCW 15,744

NCSA 1,091 WCU 17,228NCSU 40,517 WSSU 10,014

UNC Total 281,295

UNCW ChallengesUNCW Challenges

1. UNCW has significant space and facility shortages. 2. 64% of CAS enrollment is found in 10 majors. 3. There is an expanding number of students who continue

to find themselves cornered in the “pre-major” status and no institutional commitment to address their needs.

4. School of Nursing growth is inhibited by availability of appropriate faculty to meet accreditation standards.

5. School of Education growth is inhibited by the availability of interested and qualified students.

6. Cameron School of Business is within capacity. 7. UNCW’s current budget resource is insufficient to

meet adequate staffing levels, program requirements, market salary competitiveness, and aspirations at our current enrollment level.

1. UNCW has significant space and facility shortages. 2. 64% of CAS enrollment is found in 10 majors. 3. There is an expanding number of students who continue

to find themselves cornered in the “pre-major” status and no institutional commitment to address their needs.

4. School of Nursing growth is inhibited by availability of appropriate faculty to meet accreditation standards.

5. School of Education growth is inhibited by the availability of interested and qualified students.

6. Cameron School of Business is within capacity. 7. UNCW’s current budget resource is insufficient to

meet adequate staffing levels, program requirements, market salary competitiveness, and aspirations at our current enrollment level.

UNCW ChallengesUNCW Challenges 8. UNCW’s Distance Education/Extension requires a

definition of vision, a commitment of support by the Dean and Faculty of each College/Professional School and an institutionally supported funding model.

9. Prior UNCW enrollment models were unrealistic in estimating the proportion of graduate enrollment growth.

10. UNCW’s current level of scholarships inhibits market competitiveness with selectivity aspirations.

11. UNCW’s lack of funds for graduate assistantships inhibits graduate growth and quality.

12. UNCW needs to establish brand recognition and consistency in institutional messages.

13. UNCW must address inconsistencies in academic advising models and improve institutional commitment at each level of the institution.

14. UNCW must improve communication/awareness of academic policy development and implementation.

8. UNCW’s Distance Education/Extension requires a definition of vision, a commitment of support by the Dean and Faculty of each College/Professional School and an institutionally supported funding model.

9. Prior UNCW enrollment models were unrealistic in estimating the proportion of graduate enrollment growth.

10. UNCW’s current level of scholarships inhibits market competitiveness with selectivity aspirations.

11. UNCW’s lack of funds for graduate assistantships inhibits graduate growth and quality.

12. UNCW needs to establish brand recognition and consistency in institutional messages.

13. UNCW must address inconsistencies in academic advising models and improve institutional commitment at each level of the institution.

14. UNCW must improve communication/awareness of academic policy development and implementation.

Fall 2007 StatisticsFall 2007 Statistics

New Freshman 1920 New Transfers 1294 Total Undergraduate 11026 New Masters 429 New Doctorate 19 Total Graduate 1154 Extension UG. 273 Extension GRAD. 67 Total Headcount 12180 85% Fresh. to Soph. retention rate 44% four-year graduation rate 65% six-year graduation rate

New Freshman 1920 New Transfers 1294 Total Undergraduate 11026 New Masters 429 New Doctorate 19 Total Graduate 1154 Extension UG. 273 Extension GRAD. 67 Total Headcount 12180 85% Fresh. to Soph. retention rate 44% four-year graduation rate 65% six-year graduation rate

BASE SCENARIO 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

First-time Freshmen

1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950

Undergrad Transfers

1320 1325 1330 1335 1340 1345 1350 1355 1360 1365

Undergraduate Total

10875 11061 11197 11298 11374 11433 11479 11517 11548 11575

Graduate Total 1210 1270 1330 1390 1450 1510 1570 1630 1690 1750

Grand Total Resident Credit

12085 12331 12527 12688 12824 12943 13049 13147 13238 13325

Extension (UG) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Extension (Master's)

125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125

Extension Only Total

325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325 325


+Extension

12410 12656 12852 13013 13149 13268 13374 13472 13563 13650

% Growth Overall

2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% .8% .75% .70% .65%

BASE SCENARIO 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

First-time Freshmen

1960 1975 1990 2005 2025 2045 2065 2090 2115 2140

Undergrad Transfers

1350 1380 1410 1440 1485 1530 1575 1635 1695 1755

Undergraduate Total

10908 11018 11269 11501 11664 11894 12056 12169 12305 12463

Graduate Total 1110 1177 1256 1307 1349 1401 1474 1541 1605 1696


12018 12195 12525 12808 13013 13295 13530 13710 13910 14159

Extension (UG) 373 474 487 497 504 772 784 1058 1072 1089

Extension (Master's)

80 127 146 165 184 204 226 247 271 297

Extension Only Total

453 601 633 662 688 976 1010 1305 1343 1386


+Extension

12471 12796 13158 13470 13701 14271 14540 15015 15253 15545

% Growth Overall

2.0% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2%

2007 vs. 2017 Undergraduate Resident Credit Enrollment by College/School

2007 vs. 2017 Undergraduate Resident Credit Enrollment by College/School

5940

2394

1522

150

3970

537

114

3106

4485

1792

996477

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

CAS CSB WSE NSG UC SPEC UNC

Fall 2017

Fall 20075940

2394

1522

150

3970

537

114

3106

4485

1792

996477

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

CAS CSB WSE NSG UC SPEC UNC

Fall 2017

Fall 2007

Documents

Enrollment Projections 2008 – 2018 Faculty Senate Meeting February 19, 2008 Dr. Terrence Curran Associate Provost for Enrollment Management Faculty Senate