Energy Access Mauritius, November 19-20, 2013

Ibrahim Hafeezur Rehman

Director, Social Transformation Division,

Martand Shardool, Research Associate

TERI, New Delhi

IC4HD Training 2013 2

509 575

28 8

Millions of people without electricity Millions of people relying on biomass

Over 40% without access to electricity are in

Africa. Over 25% without modern cooking energy

are also in Africa )

The Goal : Universal Access to Energy for All

Access projections : New Policies Scenario……

Source: IEA, 2012

The number of people without electricity access in developing Asia is projected to nearly halve, going from around 630 million in 2010 to below 335 million in 2030. South Asia is also expected to see significant improvement, but India in 2030 continues to have the single largest population without electricity access, at around 150 million. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people without access to electricity will increase by around 11% to 655 million in 2030.

Subregion Total number of people relying

on traditional biomass

(million)

Proportions of

populations relying on

biomass within sub-

region (%)

Population

relying on

biomass as share

of sub-region’s

population (%) Rural Urban Total Rural Urban

Africa 481 176 657 73.2 26.8 67

Sub-Sahran

Africa

477 176 653 73.1 26.9 80

Developing

Asia

1694 243 1937 87.5 12.5 55

China 377 47 423 89.1 11.1 32

India 765 90 855 89.5 10.5 75

Other-Asia 553 106 659 83.9 16.1 63

Latin America 60 24 85 70.6 28.2 18

Developing

Countries*

2235 444 2679 83.4 16.6 54

Rural and urban populations relying on traditional biomass

*_ Includes Middle East Note: Traditional us of biomass refers to the basic technology used and not the resource itself. The people relying on traditional use of biomass refer to those households where biomass is the primary fuel for cooking. In addition to the number of people relying on biomass for cooking, some 0.4 billion people, mostly in China, rely on coal cooking..

Source: IEA, 2010a.

Electricity as the main driver of Energy Access

Electricity as the main driver of Energy Access

37.7

33.4

20.2

12.7 10.5

1.1 0.0 0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Population without electricity (in millions)

2.0

18.0 12.0 9.0

18.8

55.0

99.4

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Electrification rate (%)

What then is Energy Access?

• Electricity

• Access to technology/appliances

• Power plants – grid, off-grid

• Something else………

Understanding Energy Access

• Universal Energy Access:

– “access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for cooking and heating, lighting, communications and productive uses” - AGECC, 2010

Reaching modern energy to the poor and deprived

Incremental Access to Energy

Level 1

Basic human needs

Electricity for lighting and other basic needs like health and education [50-100 kWh per person per year]

Modern fuels and technologies for cooking and heating [50-100 kgoe of modern fuel or improved biomass cook stove]

Level 2

Productive uses

Electricity, modern fuels and other energy services to augment productivity

Eg. Water pumping for irrigation, fuel for transportation etc.

Level 3

Modern society needs

Modern energy services for many more domestic appliances including appliances and services for comfort and luxury

[electricity usage around 2000 kWh per person per year]

Adopted from : AGECC, 2010

Energy Access

Energy Access: AGECC, 2010

• A basic minimum threshold of modern energy

services - consumption and productive uses

• Modern energy services- reliable/affordable,

sustainable/from low-GHG-emitting energy sources

• IEA has proposed a threshold of 100 kWh per of

electricity and 100 kgoe of modern fuels

(equivalent to roughly 1200 kWh) per person per

year

No access at all

Only a bulb

A bulb and mobile phone charging facility

Energy for livelihoods

and modern living …

Definitions……….

Energy Access

Dynamic and evolving

End use and service delivery can be determinants

Quantitative Benchmarks (kWhr, units) need not be main

drivers

Lets not merely focus on needs of

today!

Lets focus on framework conditions that drive graduation from basic to productive levels

Scaling-up

Challenges….

Access /availability of a wide menu of technology

options

Market Value chain

Private sector

partnerships

Financial conundrum

(Investments, finance,

incentives, subsidies, etc.)

Demand Creation and Aggregation

Definitions Benchmarks

Institutional issues

Issues related to capacities

Grid/Off Grid turf

issues

Quality, reliability and back

up

• Limited players

• Largely public sector driven

What is missing…!

• Demands are not met - supply oriented delivery-over dependence on grid

• Limited players and lack of market competition that can empower consumers

• Limited options to choose from • Limited or no opportunities/solutions that allow transition

from basic to productive levels • Poor backup- after-sales/maintenance • Limited research for cost effective and efficient solutions • Finance constraints for both consumer and producer • Poor retail of energy solutions and services at last mile

locations • Lack of skilled manpower • …………..

Overarching questions before us…… Agenda and priorities guiding energy access? Where

does human development feature in energy access?

Is electrification synonymous to energy access? What

about thermal and cooking energy needs?

Is grid alone the solution?

Are energy requirements evolving and dynamic? If yes,

can energy benchmarks meet demands?

Isn’t rising price of fossil-fuel based energy a concern?

Target - grid extension or reliability?

Moreover…..

Bottom line 23 GW each and every year through 2030

Source: Ren 21

Biomass conundrum- efficieny

Is rising prices of fossil fuels a concern?

Is energy access and development feasible and

sustainable only through fossil fuels?

Do we need to shift to more sustainable pathways –

economic, environmental and social concerns?

Where does renewable energy feature in our scheme ?

Opportunity to leapfrog by increasing the mix of

renewables for energy access…………

Source: Ren 21

Which direction are we headed…Rising contribution of renewables to energy mix?

Renewable Power capacities in World

Solar PV installed capacity 1995-2012

Where does renewable energy feature? Country Sector/Technology Target

Kenya Renewable electricity Double installed capacity by 2012

Geothermal 5,000 MW by 2030

Solar water heating Cover 60% of annual demand for buildings using over 100 litres of hot

water per day

Malawi Hydro 346.5 MW installed capacity by 2014

Mozambique Wind, solar, hydro 2,000 MW each (no date)

Solar PV 82,000 systems installed (no date)

Solar water and space

heating

100,000 systems installed in rural areas (no date)

Wind for water pumping 3,000 stations installed (no date)

Biodigesters for biogas 1,000 systems installed (no date)

Renewable-energy based

productive systems

5,000 installed (no date)

Swaziland Solar water heating Installed in 20% of all public buildings by 2014

Uganda Solar home systems (PV) 400 kWp by 2012; 700 kWp by 2017

Large-scale hydro 830 MW by 2012; 1,200 MW by 2017

Mini and micro hydro 50 MW by 2012; 85 MW by 2017

Geothermal 25 MW by 2012; 45 MW by 2017

Organic MSW 15 MW by 2012; 30 MW by 2017

Solar water heating 4.2 MWth (6,000 m2

) by 2012; 21 MWth (30,000 m2

) by 2017

Biofuels 720,000 m3/year produced by 2012; 2.16 million m3/year produced by 2017

Regulatory policies and targets Fiscal incentives Public financing

indicates

national

level

policy

Renewa

ble

energy

targets

Feed-in

tariff/

premiu

m

payme

nt

Electric

utility

quota

obligatio

n/

RPS

Net

meteri

ng

Biofuels

obligatio

n/

mandate

Heat

obligatio

n/

mandate

Tradabl

e REC

Capital

subsid

y,

grant,

or

rebate

Investme

nt or

producti

on tax

credits

Reductio

ns in

sales,

energy,

CO2,

VAT, or

other

taxes

Energy

producti

on

payment

Public

investme

nt,

loans, or

grants

Public

competit

ive

bidding/

tenderin

g

Kenya

Swaziland

Seychelles

Zambia

Botswana

Tanzania

Mozambiq

ue

Malawi

Uganda

Is rising prices of fossil fuel a concern?..... Renewable energy support policies

Overarching questions before us…… • Does energy access translate to meeting development

needs of marginalized ?

• How do we go beyond projects/best practices? How do we

scale-up access and address current/future demand?

• Are we reaching out to under-served at last mile locations?

How do we empower the underserved in terms of “power

of choice”?

• Absence of organized/structured delivery models for the

off-grid sector ?

Energy access and poverty

• More than 95 per cent of energy poor are in either sub-Saharan Africa or in developing Asia. Of this, 84 per cent live in rural areas

• 28 per cent of world’s poor in Sub-Saharan Africa (UNDP,2010)

• Poor energy access and the low quality of traditional fuels aggravate poverty in developing countries and impede progress in virtually all foundational areas of development – (IPC-IG, 2012)

• Poverty perpetuates the lack of proper access to energy, creating a bi-directional nexus between energy and poverty – (IPC-IG, 2012)

Region/Country Electrification Rate People Without

Access to Electricity

Target

Kenya 18.0% 33

Malawi 1% (rural)

< 9% (national)

12.7 30% by 2020

Mauritius 99.4% 0.0

Mozambique 12.0% 20.2

Tanzania 2% (rural)

15.0% (national)

38.0 30% (rural) by 2015

Uganda 8.0% 29.0

Zambia 3.1% (rural)

47.6% (urban)

20.3% (national)

10.5 51% (rural)

90% (urban)

66% (national)

by 2030

Target setting : What approach to take – minimalist or look beyond household lighting

Source: Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21)

Energy access and poverty

• While addressing basic needs is a priority, the impact of energy access projects on livelihoods and incomes is less visible

• Energy access projects adopt a ‘minimalist’ approach, focusing on the basic energy needs of the poor (lighting homes, cooking, heating). While the importance of these cannot be overemphasized, such a strategy is not sufficient for effective poverty reduction (UNDP, 2011)

How do we provision energy services to enable the poor to escape from the vicious circle of poverty?

Can the poor afford to use modern energy services in the long run without sufficient income generation opportunities?

The Energy Plus Approach “The energy-poverty cycle is best addressed using an ‘Energy Plus’ approach, by combining energy service delivery with other poverty reduction initiatives” - UNDP, 2011

Source: UNDP, 2011

Solar Charging Station: Fee-for-service based model for poorest of the poor

Biomass Gasifier based energy service for Productive Applications

Energy for village schools and health centers

Solar Multi Utility to power village spices and flour grinding units, Vaccine refrigerators etc.

Solar DC Micro Grid

The Energy Plus Approach and TERI

Essentials for Energy Plus Approach

Identification of energy services

Access to finance

(end-user and for project)

Dovetailing with existing programs and schemes of government in areas of health, education, agriculture and

trade

Prioritization through legitimization of policies

Identification of tested technology options and capacity building at last

mile locations

Creating value chain for products and services and tapping livelihood

clusters

At project design stage

focus on: Monitoring, Institutions,

Post-commissioning maintenance, Linkage with market based systems and Evolving demands, Existing

livelihood opportunities

Summary…… • Paradigm shift required in way we set mandates/targets

• Human development as the driver – linkages to health,

education, potable water, livelihoods

• Energy access goes beyond centralized grid extension and

electrification – equal emphasis on off-grid

thermal/cooking

• Menu of technology options “ Power of choice to

poor/marginalised”

• Opportunity to leap frog –increase share of renewables

Summary…… • Think beyond projects – business models and upscaling

• Transparency and accountability regimes – new metric

of measurements and reporting-ARQ

• Multiple ownership with integration - Coherence and

continuity in policy that bring energy and human

development together

How do we provision energy services to enable the poor to escape from the vicious circle of poverty?

Thank you!!