Heat Pump Furnaces and Water Heaters -

A Clean Energy Solution

to Decarbonize Bay Area Homes

Pierre Delforge - April 27, 2016

pdelforge@nrdc.org

www.nrdc.org

www.350SiliconValley.org

Tonight’s story

The villains: fossil vampires in your closet

The hero: here comes the heat pump! (what’s that?)

The battle: GHGs rule!

Now what?

How much does it cost?

How do I get one?

Staying under 1.5°C…

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2°C carbon budget

(Paris agreement: aim for 1.5°C)

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https://ethicsandclimate.org/category/paris/

A consumption-based GHG emissions inventory of

the SF Bay Area

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Source: http://www.baaqmd.gov/research-and-data/emission-inventory/consumption-based-ghg-emissions-inventory

Energy-Indirect represents the construction and maintenance of power plants, power lines, and natural gas

production and distribution infrastructure.

SF Bay Area Average 44.3 metric tons CO2e per household

Twice as much CO2 emissions from natural gas as

from electricity in average Bay Area home

As electricity is getting cleaner…

(chart based on PG&E’s electricity mix(2),

some local utilities even cleaner)

… natural gas is now responsible for

two thirds of emissions in the home.

And not even accounting for methane

leakage (e.g. Aliso Canyon)

(1) Jones C., Kammen D., “Bay Area Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory”, Jan. 2016,

http://www.baaqmd.gov/research-and-data/emission-inventory/consumption-based-ghg-emissions-inventory

(2) 56% carbon-free in 2014, per http://www.energy.ca.gov/sb1305/labels/

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CO2 Emissions of Average Bay Area Home(1)

Electricity

(1/3)

Natural gas

(2/3)

Two pathways to decarbonize buildings

+ energy efficiency foundation

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• Clean electricity + high-efficiency appliances

Electrification

• Biogas

• Synthetic gas from renewable electricity (power-to-gas)

Decarbonized fuels

Energy efficiency

Heat pump technology is available for three types of

home appliances

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Heat-pump

clothes dryer

Heat-pump

water heater

Air-source and

geothermal

heat-pumps

Water Heater GHG Comparison (PG&E mix*)

As electricity becomes

cleaner over time thanks

to CA’s clean energy

policies…

… heat pump water

heating will reduce GHG

emissions by up to 80%

by 2030 vs. natural gas

in PG&E territory.

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0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

MT

CO

2e

/ M

Wh

PG&E Average GHG Emissions Factor

CPUC Data

Extrapolation

(*) Comparison varies by utility.

NRDC analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

202

1

202

2

202

3

202

4

202

5

202

6

202

7

202

8

202

9

203

0

kg

CO

2 / y

GHG Emissions per Water Heater

Gas storage mineff (EF 0.60)

Electric storage(EF 0.95)

Gas tankless (EF0.94)

Electric heat pump(EF 3.4)

Heat Pump Technology: 2 to 4 Times More Efficient

than Electric Resistance Heating

Moves heat (like a fridge or A/C in reverse) instead of

generating it (like electric resistance water heaters).

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Heat Pump Water Heating

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Heat pump water heaters are a mature technology with a

wide range of affordable models in the market

Popular models:

100 ENERGY STAR models (August 2015)

GE GeoSpring

GEH50DEEDSR

$1,200-$1,500

AO Smith

Voltex

$1,200-$1,500

Kenmore

Elite Hybrid

$1,200-$1,500

Sanden

San CO2

$2,500-$3,000

Heat Pump Space Heating

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Provides both heating and cooling (replaces A/C).

Market is nascent in California, but already well developed

in Pacific Northwest and New England.

Two main types of heat pumps for space heating:

Ductless mini-split

(more efficient)

Ducted heat pumps

(easier retrofit)

How much does it cost?

• Upfront costs (equipment and installation) are currently higher than

natural gas appliances

• Operating costs can be lower and offset the higher upfront costs

(in the right conditions)

• Situations that help make heat pump cost effective:

Low off-peak time-of-use rates + controls

Rooftop solar

Highest efficiency heat pumps

Installing new central A/C or replacing old one (install a heat pump instead

at little extra cost)

New construction or no gas: avoid gas line costs + gas monthly fees

Rebates ($500 PG&E rebate for heat pump water heater)

Over time: higher natural gas rates…

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Minimizing operational costs

1. Oversize your HPWH

to avoid resistive mode

2. Get on a time-of-use

rate with lowest

possible off-peak rate

3. Schedule your HPWH

to run off-peak

4. Go solar

E1 (standard

tiered rate)

EV-A (EV rate)

E6 (old TOU and

tiered, expiring

May 1)

E-TOU-A (new TOU,

2 tiers)

Most HPWH

usage likely on

tier 3,

penalizes

electrification

Good if HPWH

controlled to

run off-peak.

Most HPWH

usage likely on

tier 3, penalizes

electrification

Most HPWH

usage likely

above baseline,

penalizes

electrification

Tier 1 $0.18

Off-peak $0.11 Tier 1

off-peak $0.15

Tier 1 off-peak $0.18

Tier 4 $0.36

Peak $0.37

Tier 4 peak $0.52

Tier 2 peak $0.34

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

E1 EV-A E6 E-TOU-A

PG&E rates (March 2016, per kWh, average summer/winter)

Tier 2,

off-peak

$0.30

Tier 3,

off-peak

$0.22 Tier 3,

$0.29

NRDC analysis

The “duck curve”: avoid using your HPWH at grid peak to

minimize emissions from dirty peaker plants

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Over-generation leads

to solar curtailment

Peak demand requires

dirty peaker plants

Rapid ramp-up

threatens grid stability

How do I get one?

Find a contractor (search for local HVAC contractors

advertising heat pump expertise)

Water heater: – While no special skills are required to install vs. gas, a contractor with

heat pump expertise can advise on model choice and sizing.

– Make sure to get a high efficiency model to minimize operating costs

(Energy Factor >= 3.1)

Space heating: – More complicated and expensive, important to choose a contractor with

substantial heat pump expertise and check references.

How can we scale up the adoption of heat pump technology

in the Bay Area?

Barriers Strategies

Lack of public awareness Public outreach

Higher equipment and installation costs

(including potential electric panel upgrade)

City bulk buy programs, financing, target

advantageous situations such as A/C

replacement

Rates: standard electric rates penalize

heat pump owners

Advocate for utilities and CCEs to set

electrification-friendly rates.

Target EV / PV owners.

Promote highest efficiency models.

Contractors not aware, trained Contractor outreach and training

Retailers don’t stock many models Retailer partnerships

City building departments not trained City building departments training

Split financial incentives for renters and

landlords

Target home owners first

Summary

Replacing natural gas appliances (furnace, water heater,

clothes dryer) by electric heat-pump appliances is a key

opportunity to decarbonize Bay Area residential and

commercial buildings

Promoting electrification-friendly policies in Bay Area

cities is an important strategy for local climate advocacy

THANKS!