Elections & Politics Main - Brovero

8/14/2019 Elections & Politics Main - Brovero

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Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Page 1 of 289Brovero/Lundeen/Moczulski Elections & Politics

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Elections & Politics Main File

Notes:

1. The shells formostof the scenarios are in the Elections & Politics Scenarios file.

2. There is a shell included here for an October Surprise scenario. The scenario assumes that a big Obama win is bad,because if Bush thinks Obama is inevitably going to win, he will attack Iran before he leaves office, and an attack on Iranwould be bad. This scenario does not have a link in it you need to tailor the link argument to the particular debate,arguing the plan would be enough to make an Obama win seem like it is inevitable enough for Bush to take action againstIran before his term runs out.

3. The links to various cases are grouped together (for example, all climate & climate mechanism links are in one section).This means that the links in the section go in different directions some of them work for Obama Good, some of themwork for Obama Bad. Be careful to read the links to make sure you know which ones are applicable.

4. While the majority of the aff answers appear at the end of the file, in order to find link offense (and in some casesdefense), you need to consult the link sections of this file. The links are arranged by topic, NOT by direction of the disad,

so you should make sure to check that the link arguments you are making go the correct direction to answer the disad(that is dont read renewables controversial to answer the argument that your renewables plan is unpopular. Youshould be reading renewables popular). You should also check in multiple link sections some of the link cards in othersections may be relevant for your aff, depending on what combinations of harms, mechanisms, etc. you claim.

Elections & Politics Main File ...............................................................................................................................................................1******** Uniqueness Obama Good/McCain Bad ******** ................................................................................................... ...... ...7Uniqueness Obama Win Now .............................................................................................................................................................8Uniqueness - Obama Will Win ...............................................................................................................................................................9

Uniqueness Economic Issues Obama Win Now .........................................................................................................................10

Uniqueness Economic Issues Obama Win Now ................................................................................................................ ..........11

Uniqueness AT Racism Will Hurt Obama ......................................................................................................................................12Uniqueness and Link Centrism Weakens Obama Support ................................................................................................................13Uniqueness & Link Flip Flop Hurts Obama .....................................................................................................................................14Uniqueness & Link Environment Flip Flop Hurts Obama ...............................................................................................................15Uniqueness Linkage to Bush Hurting McCain Now .........................................................................................................................16Uniqueness AT Congress/Dems Unpopular Now ................................................................................................................ ...... ....17Uniqueness Obama Winning Hispanic Voters Now ..........................................................................................................................18Uniqueness AT Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link Obama Can Still Lose ................................................................................19Uniqueness AT Predictions Flawed/October Surprise Screws Up Disad .......................................................................................20Uniqueness AT Predictions Flawed/October Surprise Screws Up Disad .......................................................................................21******** Uniqueness McCain Good/Obama Bad ******** ..........................................................................................................22Uniqueness McCain Will Win Now .......................................................................................................................................... ...... ..23Uniqueness AT Obama Will Win ...................................................................................................................................................24

Uniqueness McCain Winning Christians Now ....................................................................................................................... ...... ....25********** Key Issues ********** ..................................................................................................................................................26Key Issue Energy ......................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...............27Key Issue Energy ......................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...............28Key Issue Drilling .............................................................................................................................................................................29Key Issues Economy .........................................................................................................................................................................30Key Issues Economy .........................................................................................................................................................................31Key Issue AT Foreign Policy Key ..................................................................................................................................................32Key Issue AT Immigration Key ......................................................................................................................................................33Key Issue AT Gay Marriage Key ...................................................................................................................................................34********** Battleground States ********** ................................................................................................................................ ....35Battleground Swing States Key ................................................................................................................................................ ...... ..36


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MainBattleground Colorado Unaffiliated Voters ....................................................................................................................................37Battleground Colorado Favors Obama ...........................................................................................................................................38Battleground Florida Close ............................................................................................................................................................39Battleground Florida Close ............................................................................................................................................................40Battleground Florida Key to Victory ............................................................................................................................................ ..41Battleground Florida Support Offshore Drilling ........................................................................................................................ ....42

Battleground Florida Support Offshore Drilling ........................................................................................................................ ....43Battleground Florida Support Offshore Drilling ........................................................................................................................ ....44Battleground Florida Oppose Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................ ...... ...... ....45Battleground Florida Oppose Offshore Drilling ............................................................................................................ ...... ...... ....46Battleground Indiana .........................................................................................................................................................................47Battleground Indiana Ethanol ........................................................................................................................................................48Battleground Indiana Alternative Energy .......................................................................................................................................49Battleground Iowa Farm Bill/Flooding ..........................................................................................................................................50Battleground Michigan .....................................................................................................................................................................51Battleground Michigan Renewables ..............................................................................................................................................52Battleground Michigan Auto Lobby ..............................................................................................................................................53Battleground Missouri Close ..........................................................................................................................................................54Battleground Nevada Close ............................................................................................................................................................55

Battleground Nevada Alternative Energy ...................................................................................................................... ...... ...... ....56Battleground Nevada Yucca Mountains ............................................................................................................................... ...... ....57Battleground New Mexico Iraq/Offshore Drilling .........................................................................................................................58Battleground New Mexico Key to Hispanic Votes ........................................................................................................ ...... ...... ....59Battleground New Mexico Native Americans ...............................................................................................................................60Battleground Ohio ............................................................................................................................................................................61Battleground Ohio Energy Key ......................................................................................................................................................62Battlegrounds Ohio & Pennsylvania Obama Win Now .................................................................................................................63Battleground Virginia Democrats Gaining Momentum .................................................................................................................64Battleground Virginia Set Precedent for Red States ................................................................................................. ...... ...............65Battleground Virginia Military Deployments ...................................................................................................................... ...... ....66Battleground Wisconsin ....................................................................................................................................................................67Battleground Wisconsin ....................................................................................................................................................................68

Battleground Wisconsin Close .......................................................................................................................................................69Battleground Wisconsin Wind & Solar Popular .............................................................................................................................70Battleground Wisconsin Water .......................................................................................................................................................71Battleground Michigan/Ohio/Florida/New Jersey/Missouri .............................................................................................................72Battleground Obama Not Pursuing ..................................................................................................................................................73********** Key Voters ********** .............................................................................................................................................. ....74Key Voters - Women .................................................................................................................................................................. ...... ....75Key Voters - Hispanics .........................................................................................................................................................................76Key Voters Catholics .........................................................................................................................................................................77********** Links ********** ...........................................................................................................................................................78********** Links Energy ********** ....................................................................................................................................... ....79Link Uniqueness Obama Edge on Energy Now .......................................................................................................... ...... ...............80Link Democrats Pushing Alternative Energy ....................................................................................................................................81Link Obama Supports Renewables ...................................................................................................................................................82Link Obama Will Link Energy Policy to Bush .................................................................................................................................83Link AT Obama Wont Spin the Plan ........................................................................................................................................... ..84Link Renewable Energy Popular ......................................................................................................................................................85Link Renewable Energy Popular Special Interests ................................................................................................................ ...... ..86Link Renewables and Relief .............................................................................................................................................................87Link Uniqueness McCain Edge on Energy Now .................................................................................................................... ...... ....88Link Energy/Environment Issue Hurts Obama .................................................................................................................................89Link Energy/Environment Issue Hurts Obama/Helps McCain .........................................................................................................90Link McCain Will Bash Obama on Energy ...................................................................................................................... ...... ...... ....91Link Energy Policy Spends Political Capital ....................................................................................................................................92Link Energy Policy Spends Political Capital ....................................................................................................................................93


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MainLink Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................94Link Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................95Link Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................96Link Energy Action Requires Political Capital .................................................................................................................................97Link Energy Action is Partisan .......................................................................................................................................... ...............98Link Alternative Energy Spends Capital ....................................................................................................................................... ....99

Link Energy Relief Popular ............................................................................................................................................ ................100********** Links Incentives ********** ....................................................................................................................................101Link Incentives Politically Popular .................................................................................................................................................102Link Renewable Portfolio Standard Controversial ................................................................................................................ ...... ...103Link Obama Supports Renewable Portfolio Standard ....................................................................................................................104Link Obama Supports/McCain Opposes Tax Incentives for Alternatives ............................................................................. ...... ...105Link Obama Supports Energy Efficient Buildings ...................................................................................................................... ...106Links Obama Supports Redeveloping Brownfields ........................................................................................................................107Link McCain Support for Renewable Incentives Weak ..................................................................................................................108Link McCain Supports Energy Efficiency Tax Credits ...................................................................................................................109Link McCain Supports Procurement ...............................................................................................................................................110Link GOP Opposes Tax Credit Extension without Budget Offsets .................................................................................................111Link Republicans Oppose Tax Incentives ............................................................................................................................ ...........112

Link Spending Politically Unpopular ..............................................................................................................................................113Link Regulation/Mandates Popular ............................................................................................................................................. ....114Link - Environmental Regulation Drains Political Capital ................................................................................................................115Link Environmental Regulation Controversial .............................................................................................................. ...... ...........116Link Voluntary Measures Politically Popular ...................................................................................................................... ...........117********** Links Environment ********** ................................................................................................................................118Link Public Split on Environment ...................................................................................................................................................119Link AT Environment Popular .....................................................................................................................................................120Link McCain Will Spin the Plan .....................................................................................................................................................121********** Links Climate ********** ........................................................................................................................................122Link Narrow Cap-and-Trade ...........................................................................................................................................................123Link Obama & McCain Differ on Cap and Trade ...........................................................................................................................124Link McCain Supports Narrow Cap and Trade ...............................................................................................................................125

Link McCain Supports Expanding Carbon Capture and Storage ...................................................................................................126Link Climate Hurts McCain with Conservatives ...........................................................................................................................127Link Cap and Trade Controversial ..................................................................................................................................................128Link Climate Policy Spends Capital ...............................................................................................................................................129Link Cap and Trade Politically Unpopular .....................................................................................................................................130Link Upstream Cap and Trade Controversial ..................................................................................................................................131Link Fossil Fuel Industry Wants Federal Liability for Carbon Sequestration ................................................................................132Link Climate Change Salient with Congress ..................................................................................................................................133Link Climate Salient with Public ....................................................................................................................................................134********** Links Fuel Efficiency ********** ............................................................................................................................135Link Obama Critical of McCain Battery Prize ...............................................................................................................................136Link Obama Supports Ethanol ........................................................................................................................................................137Link Ethanol Popular with Public ...................................................................................................................................................138Link Ethanol Lobby Has Clout .......................................................................................................................................................139Link Obama Supports Farm Bill .....................................................................................................................................................140Link McCain Opposes Tighter Fuel Efficiency ............................................................................................................. ...... ...... .....141Link SUVs Popular .................................................................................................................................................................... .....142********** Links Fossil Fuel ********** .......................................................................................................................... ...... ...143Link Fossil Fuel Subsidies Reductions Contentious ......................................................................................................................144Link Coal Lobby Has Clout ............................................................................................................................................................145Link Coal Lobby Clout Weak ...................................................................................................................................................... ...146Link Obama Opposes Drilling/Tar Sand .........................................................................................................................................147Link Obama Supports Fees for Un-drilled Land .............................................................................................................................148Link Obama Opposes Gas Holiday ............................................................................................................................................ .....149Link Democrats Oppose New Drilling ...........................................................................................................................................150


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MainLink Democrats Support Tapping Strategic Petroleum Reserve .....................................................................................................151Link Obama Supports Energy Market Regulation ..........................................................................................................................152Link Obama Campaigning Against Energy Special Interests Now ..................................................................................... ...... .....153Link McCain Supports Expansion of Drilling ................................................................................................................................154Link McCain Opposes Taxing Oil Companies ...............................................................................................................................155Link Public Supports Expansion of Drilling ...................................................................................................................................156

********** Links Nuclear Power ********** .............................................................................................................................157Link Nuclear Power Bush Would Push the Plan ....................................................................................................................... ...158Link Nuclear Power Push Burns Political Capital ..........................................................................................................................159Link Nuclear Power Triggers Political Backlash .........................................................................................................................160Link Obama Opposes Nuclear Power Expansion ........................................................................................................................ ...161Link Anti-Nuclear Lobby Will Hold Obama Accountable .............................................................................................................162Link Democrats Oppose Nuclear Power ........................................................................................................................................163Link Public Opposition to Nuclear Power ............................................................................................................................. ...... ...164Link Political Opposition to Nuclear Power ...................................................................................................................................165Link Nuclear Political Opposition to Reprocessing .....................................................................................................................166Link McCain Supports Nuclear Energy Incentives ..................................................................................................................... ...167Link - Republicans Support Nuclear Power .......................................................................................................................................168Link Congress Supports Nuclear Power Loan Guarantees .............................................................................................................169

Link Public Supports Nuclear Power ..............................................................................................................................................170Link Nuclear Power Has Political Support .....................................................................................................................................171Link Nuclear Power Has Political Support .....................................................................................................................................172********** Links Other ********** ............................................................................................................................................173Link McCain Supports Smart Metering ..........................................................................................................................................174Link Greenwashing ................................................................................................................................................................ ...... ...175Link Interest Groups .................................................................................................................................................................... ...176Link AT No Perception .................................................................................................................................................................177********** Credit/Blame ********** ............................................................................................................................ ................178Credit/Blame AT Dems Wont Get Credit/Blame/Bush Would Push the Plan .............................................................................179Credit/Blame Democrats Would Be Accountable for Plan .................................................................................................... ...... ...180Credit/Blame AT McCain Gets Credit for Plan ............................................................................................................................181Credit/Blame McCain Will Play the Energy Card ................................................................................................................. ...... ...182

Credit/Blame Democrats Get Energy Crisis Blame ........................................................................................................................183Internal Link Flip Floppers Win ......................................................................................................................................................184********** Obama Internals ********** .......................................................................................................................................185Internal Link Political Capital Key to Obama .................................................................................................................................186Internal Link Base Support Key to Obama .....................................................................................................................................187Internal Link Centrism Hurts Obama ........................................................................................................................................... ...188Internal Link Anti-Bush Key to Obama ..........................................................................................................................................189Internal Link AT Centrism Costs Obama Votes ................................................................................................................ ...... .....190********** McCain Internals ********** ......................................................................................................................................191Internal Link Independent Framing Bolsters McCain ............................................................................................................... .....192Internal Link Independence Key to McCain ...................................................................................................................................193Internal Link Independence Key to McCain ...................................................................................................................................194Internal Link De-linking From Bush Key to McCain .....................................................................................................................195Internal Link De-Linking from Bush Key to McCain ............................................................................................................... .....196Internal Link De-Linking from GOP Key to McCain .....................................................................................................................197Internal Link McCain Must Attack Democrats to Win .............................................................................................................. .....198Internal Link Framing Obama Liberal Key to McCain ............................................................................................................. .....199Internal Link Democratic Disunity Helps McCain .........................................................................................................................200Internal Link Scapegoating Against Dems Backfires .....................................................................................................................201Internal Link McCain Winners Lose ...............................................................................................................................................202Internal Link De-Linking From Bush Hurts McCain .......................................................................................................... ...... .....203Internal Link Average America Key to McCain ..........................................................................................................................204Internal Link Base Key to McCain .................................................................................................................................................205*********October Surprise (Big Obama Win Bad) .........................................................................................................................206October Surprise 1NC ........................................................................................................................................................................207


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MainOctober Surprise 1NC ........................................................................................................................................................................208Obama Bad Impact October Surprise Iran ...................................................................................................................................209Uniqueness Too Close to Call .........................................................................................................................................................210Uniqueness Too Close To Call ............................................................................................................................................. ...........211Uniqueness Both Candidates Favorable Now .................................................................................................................................212********** Generic Bush Agenda Internal Links ********** .......................................................................................................213

Link Normal Means Spends Capital ...............................................................................................................................................214Link Normal Means Spends Capital ...............................................................................................................................................215Link Congressional Role .................................................................................................................................................................217Link Booster Political Capital Can Collapse Quickly .....................................................................................................................218Link AT Our Plan Is Popular ........................................................................................................................................................219Link AT President Does Not Get Credit/Blame .................................................................................................................. ...... ...220Internal Link Political Capital Key to Agenda ................................................................................................................................221Internal Link Popularity Key to Agenda .........................................................................................................................................222Internal Link Winners Win ......................................................................................................................................................... .....223********** Drilling/ANWR Bad Supplement ********** ............................................................................................................224ANWR Drilling Bad Oil Spills .......................................................................................................................................................225Drilling Bad Spills Devastate Fishing .............................................................................................................................................226Drilling Alternative Energy Solves Demand ................................................................................................................................ ...227

********** Elections Aff ********** .............................................................................................................................................228Non-Unique Obama Flip Flop Now ................................................................................................................................................229Non-Unique Obama Centrism Angering Left Now ........................................................................................................................230Non-Unique Obama Centrism Angering Left Now ........................................................................................................................231Non-Unique Obama Energy Market Regulation Now ....................................................................................................................232Non-Unique McCain Flip Flop Now .............................................................................................................................................233Uniqueness Answer McCain Age Impacts Election ........................................................................................................................234Uniqueness Answer McCain Low Now ..........................................................................................................................................235Uniqueness Answer October Surprise Would Change Election ......................................................................................................236Uniqueness Unpredictable World Events Influence Election .........................................................................................................237Uniqueness Answer Electoral Volatility Overwhelms the Link ......................................................................................................238Uniqueness Answer Predictions Flawed No Winner Yet .............................................................................................................239Uniqueness Answer Polls Flawed ........................................................................................................................................ ...... .....240

Link Answer AT Issues Key to Obama ........................................................................................................................................241Link Answer AT Energy Key Issue/Mobilization Link ................................................................................................................242Link Answer AT Plan Perceived As Economic Boost ..................................................................................................................243Link Answer October Surprise Overwhelms the Plan ....................................................................................................................244Internal Link Answer AT Flip Flop ......................................................................................................................................... .....245Internal Link Answer AT Flip Flop Hurts Obama ........................................................................................................................246Internal Link Answer AT Flip Flop Hurts Obama or McCain ............................................................................... ...... ................247Internal Link Answer AT Evangelicals Key .................................................................................................................................248Housing Impact Answer Neither Candidate Can Change Housing Market ....................................................................................249Energy Impact Answer Neither Candidate Can Change Energy Policy .........................................................................................250Foreign Policy Impact Answer Neither Candidate Will Change Foreign Policy ............................................................................251Iran Impact Answer Both Candidates Want Hardline on Iran .........................................................................................................252Iran Impact Answer AT Obama Wont Attack Iran ......................................................................................................................253McCain Impact Answer Democrats Will Control Congress .................................................................................................. ...... ...254ANWR Impact Answer AT McCain Would Allow Drilling in the ANWR ..................................................................................255Obama Impact Answer Cant Predict Obama Agenda ....................................................................................................................256Obama Good Impact Answer AT Obama Solves US Leadership ..................................................................................... ...... .....257Obama Good Impact Answer AT Obama Solves US Leadership ..................................................................................... ...... .....259Obama Soft Power Impact Answer AT Obama Solves US Leadership .......................................................................................260October Surprise Impact Answer AT October Surprise ............................................................................................................ ...261********** Bush Aff - Generic ********** ...................................................................................................................................262Non-Unique Bush Is a Lame Duck .................................................................................................................................................263 Non-Unique Bush Approval Low ...................................................................................................................................................264 Non-Unique Bush Approval Low ...................................................................................................................................................265Uniqueness Approval with GOP Low .............................................................................................................................................266


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MainInternal Link Answer AT Popularity Key to Agenda ...................................................................................................................267********** Bush Aff India Deal ********** ..............................................................................................................................268India Deal Impact Answer Wont Pass Now ...................................................................................................................................269India Deal Impact Answer Next Congress Solves Impact ..............................................................................................................270India Deal Impact Answer Failure of Deal Wont Collapse Relations ............................................................................................271********** Bush Aff Drilling & ANWR ********** ............................................................................................................ .....272

Drilling Impact Answer Congress Wont Reverse Ban on Drilling ................................................................................................273Drilling Good Key to Economy ......................................................................................................................................................274Drilling Good Key to Energy Independence .............................................................................................................................. .....275Drilling Good Key to Energy Independence .............................................................................................................................. .....276Oil Key to National Security ......................................................................................................................................................... .....277Drilling Good Lowers Oil Prices ............................................................................................................................................... .....278Drilling Good Drilling Key to New Oil ....................................................................................................................................... ...279Drilling Good Drilling Safe/Lowers Gas Prices/Strengthen National Security ..............................................................................280Drilling Good AT Oil Spills ...................................................................................................................................................... ...281Drilling Good AT Oil Spills ...................................................................................................................................................... ...282ANWR Drilling Good AT Environment/Caribou ..................................................................................................................... ...283ANWR Drilling Good AT Environment/Caribou ..................................................................................................................... ...284ANWR Drilling Good Environment ...............................................................................................................................................285

ANWR Drilling Good AT Oil Spills ............................................................................................................................................286ANWR Drilling Good Economy ....................................................................................................................................................287ANWR Drilling Good Energy Security ..........................................................................................................................................288ANWR Drilling Good Energy Security ..........................................................................................................................................289


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******** Uniqueness Obama Good/McCain Bad ********


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Uniqueness Obama Win Now

Obama ahead on critical issues and key states for election

Luce, Washington bureau chief of the Financial Times, 08Edward,ft.com (financial times), Hunger for Victory Defines Obama july 8 2008, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f8b6f72-4d12-11dd-b527-000077b07658,s01=1.html accessed 7-10-8

When Democrats criticize John McCain, they first praise his honorable military record. When Republicans do the same to BarackObama, many begin by conceding that he is an attractive and talented candidate. Recent history says that Mr Obama will have tofight a bitter campaign if he is to scrape a narrow victory for the White House. But a number of independent operatives believe anObama landslide is a growing possibility. They cite a barrage of advantages. Mr Obama is expected to outspend his opponent by atleast two-to-one. The economy is far and away the biggest issue of concern to voters and looks likely to become more so asoil prices and home foreclosures mount. Only 4 per cent of Americans cite terrorism as their greatest concern a massive

shift from 2004, when it was near the top of the list. And the proportion of voters identifying with Democrats versus Republicanshas widened to 51-33 per cent. Even those who believe the race will be as narrowly settled as the last two agree that theRepublican party faces a probable meltdown in all the other elections that will be staged in November. This election is Obamasto lose, says a senior Republican strategist who is not working for the McCain campaign. Of course anything can happen events could overturn the climate of this race. But if you look at their strengths I would say a large Obama victory is more likelythan a narrow victory for McCain. You can rule out a large McCain victory. Because he is black, many still treat Mr Obamaas the underdog. Were he white and all other things were the same, Mr Obama might be seen as a stronger favorite. Opinion pollsreflect this discrepancy. While the Democrats as a party have an 18-point lead over the Republicans, Mr Obamas poll advantageover Mr McCain is just 5.8 per cent, according to the poll average by Real Clear Politics. But a breakdown suggests that MrObamas lead is more significant than that. For example, MrObama is ahead of Mr McCain in his most vulnerable swingstates of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania while drawing almost even with Mr McCain in Republican-leaning swing states

such as Florida and Virginia. In-Trade, the online betting site that has a far better record this year than the pollsters, gives MrObama a 64 per cent chance of winning. In addition, Mr Obamas campaign is as well-managed as Mr McCains appears to be indisarray. The latter is on his third or fourth campaign manager depending on how you define the job. There has been speculationthat he may appointment of Mike Murphy, a controversial Republican strategist, to a senior role on the campaign, Mr Murphyplayed down the idea on Tuesday. In contrast, Mr Obamas two key senior figures David Axelrod, his senior strategist, and DavidPlouffe, his campaign manager have been in place since the start. The two Davids have recently been supplemented by a string

of hirings from Hillary Clintons campaign in what has proved a far less awkward merger than many had feared. I am veryimpressed with the campaign Obama has run it is one of the most thoughtful and intelligent in American history, said JimLeach, a former Republican congressman, now head of the Harvard Institute of Politics. I would caution against any bigpredictions because we have a long way to go and Obama still has many cultural obstacles to overcome. But the economy is sostuck and foreign policy is so awkward that it could point to a big Obama victory. That is a real possibility. Mr Obama is alsoaided by a single-minded hunger for victory. In the last 10 days he has come under attack for a series of policy shifts. Theseinclude his vote for a bill that renewed George W. Bushs eavesdropping powers as well as U-turns on public financing, gunowners rights and his decision to back Mr Bushs office for faith-based charities. Many liberals were disappointed by Mr Obamasindication last week that he would refine his pledge to withdraw all US combat troops from Iraq within 16 months. Thecandidates clarification did little to mollify them. But what is disquieting to liberals has proved heartening to centrists. If youlook at the leads Obama has built on the economy and healthcare, then he goes into this election with a big advantage, says TadDevine, a veteran Democratic operative. John McCain has had a hard time sustaining his reputation as a maverick because hesupports Bush on all the big issues foreign policy, tax cuts and healthcare. This is way too early to be confident but the odds for

an Obama victory are growing.


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Uniqueness - Obama Will Win

Obama will win voters will choose the change candidate

Bandy, South Carolina Insider editor, 7/10/8

(Lee, SouthCarolina Insider, South Carolina Democrats Excited About Being Real Players, 7-10-8,http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_710_467.aspx, accessed 7-17-8)

Based on early polls, Obama should easily beat Republican candidate John McCain, the Arizona senator. After all, heleads the Republican in every measurement. Believing the nation is headed in the wrong direction, these voters want achange. Obama could win in a landslide, says Charles Dunn, a political scientist at Regents University in Virginia .But this will not be the first time the public will be voting for change, orhad a deep desire for change. They had it in1980 when Ronald Reagan challenged Carter and in 1992 when Bill Clinton opposed President Bush. Reagan andClinton won, running on a platfom of change. So, if 2008 repeats the history of 1980 and 1992, Obama will win in alandslide, Dunn predicts.

Obama will win independents decrease McCain support

CTV Canada, 7/16/8

(CTV Canada Online, 7-16-8, Obama leads McCain in new election poll,http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080716/us_poll_080716/20080716?hub=Politics , accessed 7-17-8)

A new poll suggests Barack Obama has a seven-point lead over John McCain in the race to the White House, but nearly10 per cent of voters have yet to make up their minds. The Zogby poll, released Wednesday, also suggests independentcandidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr would draw votes away from McCain, thereby

extending Obama's lead even further.

Obama will win he consistently leads in polls

Gallup Daily, 7/14/8(Gallup Daily, Presidential Race Remains Steady, 7-14-8, http://www.gallup.com/poll/108814/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Remains-Steady.aspx, accessed 7-17-8)

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows voter preferences holding steady, with 46% saying they wouldvote for Barack Obama and 43% for John McCain if the presidential election were held today. The figures areunchanged from Sunday's report, and in general reflect the remarkable stability in the numbers for the past two-plusweeks. Over this time, Obama's support has ranged between 46% and 48%, while McCain's share of the vote has been inthe 42% to 44% range. Thus, Obama has consistently held a modest, but consistent, advantage over McCain for thepast two weeks, and for all but three days since early June.

Obama will win campaign attitudes prove

Bookman, Atlanta Journal-Constitution staff writer, 7/13/8(Jay, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Democrats coming out of the woodwork, 7-13-8,http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/bookman/entries/2008/07/13/obama_winning_the_intensity_fa.html, accessed7-17-8)

While most of the polls show a fairly tight presidential race, it doesnt feel that way. As I mentioned in comments awhile back, the body language and attitude of the Obama campaign indicate they believe Obamas going to win,while the language and attitude of the McCain camp also indicate they believe Obama will win.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080716/us_poll_080716/20080716?hub=Politicshttp://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2BDaily.aspxhttp://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2BDaily.aspxhttp://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080716/us_poll_080716/20080716?hub=Politicshttp://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2BDaily.aspx


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Uniqueness Economic Issues Obama Win NowEconomic issues giving Obama the edge over McCain now

Braverman, CNNMoney.com contributing writer, 6-12-8(Beth, CNNMoney.com, Voters favor Obama's economic policy poll, Democratic presidential candidate holds slight edge overGOP rival McCain on key election issue.,http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/news/economy/president_poll/index.htm, accessed 7-3-8)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Barack Obama has a slight edge over presidential rival John McCain on the economy,according to a poll of registered voters released Thursday.The CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows that 50% of voters polled believe Obama will better handle the economy, while 44% favorMcCain's economic policies.The poll reflects telephone interviews with 921 registered voters June 4-5. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentagepoints.Obama's slight lead in the poll reflect his edge in general polls, as well as his perceived strength on domestic issues versusMcCain's perceived strength in foreign policy, said Andrew Taylor, chairman of the political science department at North CarolinaState University.

"We have a Republican administration, and there are people who blame the administration for the current economic situation,"Taylor said. "They think the Democrats would be better for the economy right now."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/news/economy/president_poll/index.htmhttp://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/news/economy/president_poll/index.htmhttp://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/news/economy/president_poll/index.htm


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Uniqueness and Link Centrism Weakens Obama Support

Further tilt to the center will cost Obama votesShipman, Telegraph Washington Bureau, 7-5-8

(Tim, The Telegraph, Barack Obamas shift on Iraq draws fire from the left,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2253313/Barack-Obama%27s-shift-on-Iraq-draws-fire-from-the-Left.html, 7/6/08)

His firm stance against his conservative critics and his claim to represent a new kind of politics won him an almost religiousfollowing from Democratic activists during the primary campaign, enabling him finally to overcome his rival, Hillary Clinton.Last week The Wall Street Journal burst that bubble by joking in an editorial that Mr Obama not John McCain, the Republicancandidate is the one running for Bush's "third term".Mr Obama is urgently courting the independent voters he will need to win the election. But last night a prominent polling analysttold The Sunday Telegraph that unless Mr Obama treads more carefully on Iraq, he could lose the support of grassroots workers and with it the election.Prof Robert Blendon, director of the Harvard University's Opinion Research Programme, said: "The candidate needs to hold theenthusiasm of a large block of activist voters. What would keep thousands of college students from not working for him? His

announcing that he would stay in Iraq for five more years that would do it."

Obama centrism hasnt cost him votes yet but further aggravating base will cost himLambro, Washington Times Correspondent, 7-5-8

(Don, Obamas move to center irks left, The Washington Times, July 5, 2008,http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/05/obamas-move-to-center-irks-left-wing/ accessed 7/6/08)

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has come under fire from his party's liberal base for moving toward centristpositions on such issues as free trade, domestic surveillance and the war in Iraq.Mr. Moulitsas said he was withholding a maximum $2,300 contribution to the Obama campaign because, "I simply have no desireto reward bad behavior," but acknowledged at this point, "I'll still vote for him."Another Web site, Democrats.com, a liberal-advocacy group not formally tied to the party, said "progressives were shocked last

week" when Mr. Obama supported a Bush-backed bill granting legal immunity to communications companies who cooperate withfederal surveillance efforts to intercept terrorist calls or e-mails.Web site president Bob Fertik is asking its supporters to put money they plan to give to the Obama campaign into their own escrowaccounts "until he demonstrates progressive leadership on issues we care about, like warrantless wiretapping."Over at the Huffington Post Web site, blogger Joseph A. Palermo said progressives were outraged by his push for a faith-basedprogram "blurring the line between church and state," warning the Obama camp that its candidate "is treading on thin ice.""If he continues to move to the right, he's going to alienate his most enthusiastic supporters. He will lose precinct walkers, phonebankers, voter-registration campaigners, and other activists who were responsible for catapulting him this far," Mr. Palermo wrote."It's time for Obama to dedicate a little of his time to the care and feeding of his base," he said. "He's going to need those people inNovember."


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Uniqueness & Link Flip Flop Hurts Obama

Uniqueness and link politicized shift away from previous position would hurt Obama(William, New York Times, Obama Supporters on the Far Left Cry Foulhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/us/politics/13liberal.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin, accessed 7-14-8)

Still, others warned that Mr. Obama risked being viewed as someone who parses positions without taking a principled stand.Im not saying were there yet, but thats the danger, said David Sirota, a liberal political analyst and author. I dont thinktheres disillusion. I think theres an education process that takes place, and thats a good thing. He is a transformative politician,but he is still a politician.
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Uniqueness & Link Environment Flip Flop Hurts Obama

Positions on core Democratic issues key a flip flop would weaken him(William, New York Times, Obama Supporters on the Far Left Cry Foulhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/us/politics/13liberal.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin, accessed 7-14-8)

Some of Mr. Obamas supporters say he is less vulnerable to accusations of flip-flopping on issues because his campaignultimately has been built on his biography and philosophy.I dont think the test on him is in an explicitly narrow set of check boxes that have to get filled, said Kevin Looper, executivedirector of Our Oregon, a liberal advocacy group. I think its about do his campaign and his message embody serious changes forthe direction of the country?Mr. Looper and many other supporters said Mr. Obama was solid on core Democratic concerns like the environment, social andeconomic justice and how to balance taxes among economic groups. Of course, his stands on more specific issues appeal to manysupporters, too.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/us/politics/13liberal.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=sloginhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/us/politics/13liberal.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=sloginhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/us/politics/13liberal.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin


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Uniqueness Linkage to Bush Hurting McCain Now

Linkage to Bush hurting McCain in the pollsFroomkin, Washington Post White House Watch columnist, 7-16-8

(Dan, Washingtonpost.com, The 28 Percent President)

And are you looking for a simple explanation of why John McCain is trailing Barack Obama in the polls? The AP poll finds that bya 2-1 margin, Americans believe McCain would generally continue Bush's economic policies. And by a more than 4-1 margin, theybelieve he would generally continue Bush's Iraq policies.

McCain linked to Bush now, hurting himHuffington Post, 7-16-8

(Huffington Post, Pollsters Say McCain Yoked To Legacy Of President Bush,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.html, accessed 7-16-8)

Buried in the latest NY Times/CBS poll that focuses on race and the presidential race, is a nugget on how many Americansassociate presumptive GOP candidate John McCain with President Bush:

The poll found that Mr. McCain is yoked to the legacy of President Bush -- majorities believe that Mr. McCain, as president,would continue Mr. Bush's policies in Iraq and on the economy. Mr. Bush's approval rating on the economy is as low as it has beenin his presidency, 20 percent; and even while there has been an increase in the number of Americans who think the war is goingwell, there has been no change in the significantly large number of people who think it was a mistake to have invaded.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/16/new-poll-mccain-yoked-to_n_113134.html


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Uniqueness AT Congress/Dems Unpopular Now

Linkage to Bush drags congressional approval down, voters blame him not DemsTodd, MSNBC First Read, 6-12-8

(Chuck, Mark Murray, & Domenico Montanaro, First Thoughts: Obamas Bump,http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/12/1134992.aspx, accessed 7-14-8)

*** Congress' new low: The most underreported number out of the new NBC/WSJ poll is going to be Congress' job rating. Aminiscule 13% of those surveyed approve of the job Congress is doing, compared with 79% who disapprove. Both are all-timerecords in this poll. But despite the relatively low standing in which Congress is held, the majority party is not being punished.Consider that in the generic congressional ballot: Democrats lead by a whopping 19 points, 52%-33%. Also, the Democratic Partyhas a fav/unfav of 43%-32%; the GOPs is 28%-47%. So what gives? Our pollsters believe Congress is suffering from the overallnegative view the country has from the country in general. How can you approve of Congress' job when you believe the country isheaded in the wrong direction? More importantly for this exercise, why can't Republicans benefit? The other answer is Bush.Clearly, the country isn't happy with the president, but now they are angry that there is a branch of government that appears to bedoing nothing about it either.
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Uniqueness AT Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link

Obama Can Still Lose

Uniqueness doesnt overwhelm the link Obama will win now, but plan could change that historyprovesCNN.com, 6-25-8

(McCain says being the underdog suits him, http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/25/campaign.wrap/index.html, accessed 6-25-8)

Keating Holland, CNN's polling director, notes a substantial lead in June does not always translate into a decisive victory inNovember."Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But whenJune polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said."Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point leadover George Bush the elder in June 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June 1976 but inNovember eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968, even though he had a 16-pointmargin that June," Holland noted.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/25/campaign.wrap/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/25/campaign.wrap/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/25/campaign.wrap/index.html


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Uniqueness AT Predictions Flawed/October Surprise

Screws Up Disad

Card continued, no omissions

Also, this time, Democrats in Congress would stand up and ask some questions. They were cowardly in the extreme in 2001 totheir eternal shame. But politicians are quite adept at kicking a man while he's down. A president with a 29% approval rating, inwhom most of America has lost confidence, isn't very scary, even after a terrorist attack that might take him up to, say, the old52%?McCain, as I said, would have an advantage over Obama mano a mano. That's a given. And it may be that the fear factor wouldmove meaningful percentages of voters in swing states over to McCain. But suppose the context of a second attack were that itdidn't carry the shock that 9/11 did, that the Bush administration could not assert without explaining as it was able to do back then,and that the media did some reporting and demonstrated that Bush and his officials should have been more on the ball?That just doesn't strike me as a far-fetched scenario. And since presidential elections are decided state-by-state that is, 30% of

Alabama voters might rally to Bush and McCain, but only 3% of Michigan voters might, and voters in Oregon might on the wholeturn against the Republicans it is by extension not far-fetched that a second attack might not change the electoral map thatdramatically.The media always believe that things will happen in conformation with the patterns of the past. But if that were true, BarackHussein Obama would not be the Democratic nominee. For that matter John McCain wouldn't be representing the GOP. Lifechanges. And usually before the narrative does.

NOTE: This is a continuation of this card:October Surprise predictions flawed they assume 9/11 all over again context has

changed, so history wouldnt repeat itselfTomasky, Guardian America editor, 6-25-8

(Michael, Guardian, 9/11's fading force,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/25/uselections2008.usa, accessed 7-14-8)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/25/uselections2008.usahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/25/uselections2008.usahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jun/25/uselections2008.usa


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******** Uniqueness McCain Good/Obama Bad ********


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Uniqueness AT Obama Will Win

McCain has momentum now Obama should be polling higherThe Augusta Chronicle (Georgia), editorial, 7-17-8

(The signs aren't good SECTION: EDITORIAL; Pg. A08)

This should be an easy year for Democrats.A record percentage of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction - and after years of mostly Republican rule, thatshould help Democrats.Meanwhile, the media hype surrounding Democratic nominee-to-be Barack Obama is unprecedented and often unquestioning.National media have set him up as some sort of messiah.And after a pitched primary battle in which he emerged victorious, you would think Obama would appear unbeatable by now.By contrast, after an anti-climactic fizzle of a Republican primary, John McCain has sort of stumbled out of the gate for the generalelection, appearing unable to find his footing and to define his campaign clearly.Yet, a recent Rasmussen poll amazingly has the two candidates tied at this point.The Obama campaign plans a football-stadium acceptance speech at the Democratic convention in August. And his speech willcoincide with the anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech. Obama is sure to get a huge bounce from all that.

But by all rights, he should be starting from a stronger position than he seems to be. That can't be good news for Democrats. Andconsider: A Washington Post/ABC News poll says 72 percent think McCain would be a good commander-in-chief, but only 48percent think Obama would.Moreover, despite Obama's reputation for oratory, runners-up from the Republican primary can tell you what a savagely effectivedebater McCain is.Polls at this point don't mean much. But they are signposts on a long journey.Directions can change quickly on a political odyssey. But right now, the signs aren't good for Obama.


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Key Issue Energy

Energy is a voting issue it will impact 9 of 10 votesGarber, U.S. News & World Report, 7-21-8

(Kent, US News & World Report, Protecting Mother Nature, Pg. 29 Vol. 145 No. 2)

Now that there is consensus that global climate change is happening, the real debate is how the next president will address it.Several recent developments, including record oil prices, rapidly rising energy demand, and a growing awareness of the impact offossil fuel use on the Earth, have provided ample evidence that energy and environment challenges are intimately connected andrequire a coordinated response. Voters, meanwhile, are growing more concerned. In June, a Gallup Poll found that 9 of 10 voterssay that high energy costs will influence their vote in November.

Energy emerging as key issue in the electionVictor, Stanford law professor & Spogli Institute Program on Energy & Sustainable Development director, 8

(David, Newsweek.com, The Energy Trap, Why the United States is doomed to be an energy outlaw, 3-8-8,http://www.newsweek.com/id/118087, accessed 6-29-8)

Democrats voting in Ohio and Texas may well decide the shape of the U.S. presidential election. Regardless of who they choose torun against Sen. John McCain, the all but certain Republican candidate, it is likely that energy issues will figure more prominentlyin the election than at any time in the last generation. High prices are sapping economic growth, the No. 1 concern across most ofthe country. Gasoline is now approaching $4 a gallon; natural gas and electricity are also more costly than a few years ago. Globalwarming has become a bipartisan worry, and solving that problem will require radical new energy technologies as well. All this isgood news in the rest of the world, which is hoping that a new regime in Washington will put the United States on a moresustainable energy path.

Energy policy is a hot button election issueBeschloss, Desert Sun contributor, 6-27-8

(Morris R., Desert Sun, Energy policy hinges on election, Lexis)

With energy development rapidly becoming the presidential campaign's critical issue, there are several happenings bringing thecollision between the environmentalist partisans and the "Energy Now" protagonists to a rapid showdown.Thursday morning, the OPEC chief minister predicted crude oil per barrel to rise to $170 later this summer. He also added thatU.S. gasoline could rise to $6 per gallon. The crude oil target is $20 more than what I had predicted at the first of the year, alongwith $125 per barrel by Memorial Day.

Energy policy a focal point of the electionAspen Daily News 7-7-8

(Andrew Travers, Aspen Daily News staff writer, Election loomed at large at Ideas Fest,http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/127924)

When asked for his take on the race, JP Morgan Chase chairman and CEO James Dimon agreed it is historic but not for any ofthe reasons listed above.I dont think its historic because its a man or a woman or a black or an elderly person, Dimon said in a public interview withCharlie Rose, adding that the faltering state of the nation is the historic importance of 2008. We dont have energy policy,education policy, infrastructure policy these are not partisan (issues).
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Key Issue Energy

Economy, particularly energy prices, key to votersGoldman, CNNMoney.com, 7-1-8

David, CNNMoney.com, Americans say they'll vote with their wallets, The battered economy is the top issue for voters, and thatisn't expected to change by November. http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/economy/election_issue_poll/index.htm, accessed7-3-8)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The slumping U.S. economy has become the top issue on voters' minds, according to a newpoll and that concern is likely to carry on up through election day.According to a recent CNN/Opinion Research Poll released Tuesday, 93% of voters say the economy is "extremely" or "very"important to their vote for president this November.84% of the more than 900 registered voters surveyed from June 26 to 29 saidthe situation in Iraq was their top concern.In January, the economy was virtually tied with the Iraq war as the top concern for voters."With the poor economic environment right now, it's not surprising at all," said Wachovia economist Mark Vitner.As bad news out of Iraq has taken a back seat to dour economic news, Americans say the economy has become the issue that maydecide the election in November, according to the survey.

Economic bad news continues to mount, with the S&P and Dow suffering their worst June since the Great Depression.Adding to the pain, more than 324,000 jobs have been lost so far in 2008, and the mortgage and credit crises have crushedconsumer confidence. Also, rising food and energy costs are hurting Americans in the pocketbooks.Accordingly, 77% of those polled felt gas prices were "extremely" or "very" important to their vote, making fuel costs the thirdmost important issue for American voters.

Energy is the hot election topicCermak, Editor for German Press Agency, 6-18-8.

(Chris, June 18, "McCain scolds oil nations, touts US reserves; Obama cries flip-flop", US News,http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/usa/news/article_1411853.php/McCain_scolds_oil_nations_touts_US_reserves_Obama_cries_flip-flop) accessed July 6th

Washington - Republican presidential hopeful John McCain blasted US dependence on foreign oil for effectively bankrollingundemocratic regimes and called Tuesday for the United States to allow greater exploration off its own shores. McCain said thatmoney for oil was going to hostile states and supporters of terrorism in the Middle East, leaving the US in a dangerous andvulnerable position. 'Oil revenues are enriching the enemies of the United States and potentially limiting our own options incontaining the threat they present,' McCain said in a broad speech on energy policy in Houston, Texas. Energy has quickly becomea hot topic in the US presidential race, as security concerns have linked up with economic worries. Americans are feeling the pinchof high petrol and utility costs in an already- slowing US economy.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/economy/election_issue_poll/index.htmhttp://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/economy/election_issue_poll/index.htm


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Key Issue Drilling

Drilling has emerged as a presidential issueCNN.com 7-14-8

(CNN.com, Bush lifts executive ban on offshore oil drilling,http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/14/bush.offshore/index.html, accessed 7-14-8)

"In the short run, the American economy will continue to rely largely on oil, and that means we need to increase supply here athome," Bush said, adding that there is no more pressing issue for many Americans than gas prices.Bush's father, President George H.W. Bush, signed the executive order in 1990 banning offshore drilling.The issue has gained prominence in the presidential race. Sen. John McCain recently announced he supported offshore oil drilling,reversing his previous stance.Sen. Barack Obama wants to keep the ban in place.
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Key Issues Economy

Economy key issue for AmericansPage & Risser, USA Today, 8

(Susan & William, USA Today, Economy's slide has voters on edge; Americans' rising anxiety 'a clear plus for the Democrats' 2-5-8, p. A1, Lexis)

Americans are increasingly downbeat about the economy and deeply worried that their standard of living is at risk, according to anew USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that shows family finances battered by a rise in fuel prices, the loss of jobs and a housing bust. Inall, 42% of those surveyed from Wednesday to Saturday rate the nation's economic conditions as poor, the most negative outlooksince 1992 -- another presidential election year, and one defined by economic angst that contributed to a Democratic takeover ofthe White House.

Economy keyHerdt, Ventura County Star, 8

(Timm, Ventura County Star, Focus has changed since 1992 campaigns, 2-5-8, p. , Lexis)

That was a presidential election year in which the United States was just coming out of a recession and voters had little else ontheir minds. Advisers to candidate Bill Clinton famously broke down the campaign to a single, fundamental element: "It's theeconomy, stupid."As Californians go to the polls today, presidential politics and the economy are

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