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ELECTION DAY
2018
“The Midterms” November 6, 2018
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page 3: State of Play - What’s at Stake - Ratings Overview
Page 4: What to Watch - Early Voting Returns - Poll Closing Times
Page 5: SCORECARDS - Senate and House
Page 6: Overview - Senate Races
Page 7: Overview - House Races
Page 8: States to Watch - House Majority Maker
Page 9: Toss Up House Races
Page 10: Lean Democratic and Lean Republican House Races
Page 11: Likely Democratic and Likely Republican House Races
Pages 12: Solid Democratic House Races
Page 13: Solid Republican House Races
Page 14: State Races - Governors
3
STATE OF PLAY
The Senate Current Composition: 51 Republicans; 49 Democrats / Independents Republicans have 9 seats up for reelection, and only 1 seat in a state President Trump lost in 2016 (Nevada). Democrats have 26 seats in cycle, with 10 in states that President Trump carried in 2016. Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats to win control of the Senate.
The House Current Composition: 235 Republicans; 193 Democrats; 7 Vacancies House Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win 218 seats in the House.
State Races Republicans hold a 33-16 edge in gubernatorial offices and have to defend 26 governorships compared to the Democrats’ 9. Republicans control 67 of 99 state legislative chambers and have “trifectas” (governor, state House and state Senate) in 26 states while Democrats have only 8.
WHAT’S AT STAKE
If Democrats Win the House Political Impacts OVERSIGHT & INVESTIGATIONS: Democrats will gain unilateral authority to subpoena all documents and any member of the Trump Administration; possible impeachment proceedings?
Legislative Impacts Potential to get deals on President Trump’s populist campaign issues like trade, infrastructure, and health care
Status Quo - Republican Congress Political Impacts An emboldened President Trump? Cabinet turnover?
Legislative Impacts More deregulation, tax reform 2.0, Obamacare repeal; tort reform? Potential for gridlock: Senate cannot move House-passed legislation; House margin is too close to move anything
RATINGS EXPLAINED
Ratings are based on the Cook Political Report as of October 30, 2018 Safe: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. Lean: These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage.
THE SENATETHE SENATE TOSS UP TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN D LEAN R LEAN R LIKELY D LIKELY D LIKELY R LIKELY R SAFE SAFE
Democrats FL, IN, MO,
MT, NJ MN (special),
WV ND
MI, OH, PA, WI
CA, CT, DE, HI, MA, MD, ME, MN,
NM, NY, RI, VA, VT, WA
Republicans AZ, NV, TN, TX MS (special) MS, NE, UT, WY
THE HOUSE THE HOUSE
TOSS UP TOSS UP LEAN D LEAN D LEAN R LEAN R LIKELY D LIKELY D LIKELY R LIKELY R SAFE SAFE
Democrats 1 2 1 8 1 182
Republicans 28 13 28 4 27 140
4
WHAT TO WATCH
Will there be a blue wave in 2018 or can a strong economy and an interest in protecting President Trump’s Administration motivate help Republicans hold the House?
What are voters energized by? Trump? Kavanaugh confirmation? #metoo? Health care costs? State-level ballot initiatives? The “green wave” ?
Based on Oct. 15 FEC filings, Democratic candidates outraised their Republican opponents in a majority of the 69 most competitive (toss up; lean D; lean R) House races $252 million to $172 million.
Top of the ticket races and down ballot impacts (TX Senate, KS Governor)
Keep in Mind: Recounts, Runoffs, Slow Reporting Recounts: Some states have automatic recounts if the winning margin is below a certain percentage
Watch: AZ and FL Senate races Run-offs: A few states require the winner to win 50% + 1 of the vote or the top two vote-getters compete later in a runoff
Watch: GA Governor, MS Special Senate election
POLL CLOSING TIMES (EST)POLL CLOSING TIMES (EST)
6:00 PM 7:00 PM 7:30 PM 8:00 PM 8:30 PM 9:00 PM 11:00 PM Midnight 10:00 PM
IN* KY*
FL* GA SC VA VT
NC OH WV
AL CT DE IL KS
MA MD ME MI* MO
MS NH NJ OK PA
RI SD TN TX
AR CO LA
MN NE
NM NY WI WY
AZ ID IA
MT
NV ND UT
CA OR WA
AK HI
*Polls close later in some parts of state due to different time zone
EARLY VOTING & ABSENTEE RETURNSEARLY VOTING & ABSENTEE RETURNS State (as of)
Returned Ballots: State (as of)
Returned Ballots: State (as of)
Returned Ballots: State (as of)
Returned Ballots:
AK (10/27)
25,151 IN
(10/25) 248,064
NE (10/26)
90,507 SD
(10/28) 48,902
AR (10/27)
162,777 KS
(10/26) 118,453
NJ (10/25)
245,644 TN
(10/27) 849,722
AZ (10/26)
837,583 LA
(10/25) 138,654
NM (10/27)
240,401 TX
(10/28) 3,250,301
CA (10/27)
1,622,906 MA
(10/26) 242,617
NV (10/28)
339,863 UT
(10/27) 321,136
CO (10/26)
618,942 MD
(10/28) 260,728
NY (10/26)
15,656 VA
(10/27) 189,547
DE (10/26)
11,991 ME
(10/25) 67,986
OH (10/28)
604,595 VT
(10/29) 29,940
FL (10/27)
2,551,975 MI
(10/26) 574,807
OK (10/21)
19,216 WA
(10/28) 370,024
GA (10/28)
1,188,900 MN
(10/26) 285,170
OR (10/26)
318,077 WI
(10/27) 219,580
IA (10/26)
282,661 MT
(10/27) 195,793
PA (10/25)
93,485 WV
(10/26) 69,244
ID (10/26)
82,398 NC
(10/28) 1,127,401
RI (10/26)
9,998 WY
(10/26) 30,948
IL (10/28)
548,034 ND
(10/28) 57,977 Source: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html
5
KEEPING SCORE
THE SENATE THE SENATE
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
Current Senate Breakdown 49 51
Seats Not in Cycle 23 42
“Solid” rated seats 14 4
Assumed Seats: 116th Congress
3737 4545
AZ AZ -- OPENOPEN SINEMASINEMA vs. vs. MMccSALLYSALLY
FL FL NELSON* NELSON* vs. vs. SCOTTSCOTT
IN IN DONNELLY* DONNELLY* vsvs. . BRAUNBRAUN
MI MI STABENOW* STABENOW* vs. vs. JAMESJAMES
MN MN -- SPECIALSPECIAL SMITH* SMITH* vs. vs. HOUSLEYHOUSLEY
MO MO MMccCASKILL* CASKILL* vs. vs. HAWLEYHAWLEY
MS MS -- SPECIAL **SPECIAL ** HYDE-SMITH vs. vs. CHRIS McDANIEL
vs. vs. MIKE EPSY
MT MT TESTER* TESTER* vs. vs. ROSENDALEROSENDALE
ND ND HEITKAMP* HEITKAMP* vs. vs. CRAMERCRAMER
NJ NJ MENENDEZ* MENENDEZ* vs. vs. HUGINHUGIN
NV NV ROSEN ROSEN vs. vs. HELLER*HELLER*
OH OH BROWN* BROWN* vs. vs. RENACCIRENACCI
PAPA CASEY* CASEY* vs. vs. BARLETTABARLETTA
TN TN -- OPENOPEN BREDESEN BREDESEN vs. vs. BLACKBURNBLACKBURN
TXTX O’ROURKE O’ROURKE vs. vs. CRUZ *CRUZ *
WIWI BALDWIN* BALDWIN* vs. vs. VUKMIRVUKMIR
WVWV MANCHIN* MANCHIN* vs. vs. MORRISEYMORRISEY
TOTAL SEATSTOTAL SEATS
THE HOUSE THE HOUSE -- Majority Maker: 218 seatsMajority Maker: 218 seats
Assumed Seats: 116th Congress
(“Solid” rated seats)
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
182182 140140
RACES WONRACES WON
TOSS UP TOSS UP (29 TOTAL)(29 TOTAL)
LEAN D LEAN D (15 TOTAL)(15 TOTAL)
LEAN R LEAN R (29 TOTAL)(29 TOTAL)
LIKELY D LIKELY D (12 TOTAL)(12 TOTAL)
LIKELY R LIKELY R (28 TOTAL)(28 TOTAL)
TOTAL SEATSTOTAL SEATS
* Incumbent **MS Special Election: if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two vote getters will advance to runoff election
6
THE SENATE
State Current Seat Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate 2016 Presidential Election
TOSS UPTOSS UP
Arizona Krysten Sinema Martha McSally Trump +3.5
Florida Bill Nelson Rick Scott Trump +1
Indiana Joe Donnelly Mike Braun Trump +19
Missouri Claire McCaskill Josh Hawley Trump +18
Montana Jon Tester Matt Rosendale Trump +20
Nevada Jacky Rosen Dean Heller Clinton +2
New Jersey Bob Menendez Bob Hugin Clinton +14
Tennessee Phil Bredesen Marsha Blackburn Trump +26
Texas Beto O'Rourke Ted Cruz Trump +9
LEAN DEMOCRATICLEAN DEMOCRATIC
Minnesota Tina Smith Karin Housley Clinton +1.5
West Virginia Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey Trump +42
LEAN REPUBLICANLEAN REPUBLICAN
North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp Kevin Cramer Trump +36
Mississippi Mike Espy Cindy Hyde-Smith
Chris McDaniel Trump +18
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Michigan Debbie Stabenow John James Trump +0.23
Ohio Sherrod Brown Jim Renacci Trump +8
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Lou Barletta Trump +0.7
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir Trump +0.7
SAFE DEMOCRATIC SAFE DEMOCRATIC
California Dianne Feinstein Kevin De Leon
Clinton +30
Connecticut Chris Murphy Matthew Corey Clinton +13
Delaware Tom Carper Robert Arlett Clinton +12
Hawaii Mazie Hirono Ron Curtis Clinton +32
Maine Angus King (I)
Zak Ringelstein Eric Brakey Clinton +3
Maryland Ben Cardin Tony Campbell Clinton +26
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl Clinton +27
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Jim Newberger Clinton +1.5
New Mexico Martin Heinrich Mick Rich Clinton +8
New York Kirsten Gillibrand Chele Farley Clinton +22
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Robert Flanders Clinton +15
Vermont Bernie Sanders (I) Lawrence Zupan Clinton +28
Virginia Tim Kaine Corey Stewart Clinton +5
Washington Maria Cantwell Susan Hutchinson Clinton +16
SAFE REPUBLICAN SAFE REPUBLICAN
Mississippi David Baria Roger Wicker Trump +18
Nebraska Jane Raybould Deb Fischer Trump +25
Utah Jenny Wilson Mitt Romney Trump +18
Wyoming Gary Trauner John Barrasso Trump +46
Open Seat
7
THE HOUSE “CROSSOVER” DISTRICTS
Only 32* current districts "crossed over" to vote for presidential and House candidates of opposite parties in 2016.
2016 Partisan Voter Index
PA Districts 115th Congress
Redistricting: 2018 Partisan Voter Index
D+31 PAPA--0101 R+1
D+40 PAPA--0202 D+25
R+11 PAPA--0303 D+41
R+11 PAPA--0404 D+7
R+13 PAPA--0505 D+13
R+2 PAPA--0606 D+2
R+1 PAPA--0707 D+1
R+2 PAPA--0808 R+1
R+19 PAPA--0909 R+14
R+16 PAPA--1010 R+6
R+10 PAPA--1111 R+14
R+11 PAPA--1212 R+17
D+15 PAPA--1313 R+22
D+17 PAPA--1414 R+14
R+4 PAPA--1515 R+20
R+5 PAPA--1616 R+8
R+1 PAPA--1717 R+3
R+11 PAPA--1818 D+13
“Clinton” Republican Seats “Trump” Democratic Seats
District Member Clinton Margin
Cook Rating District Member Trump Margin
Cook Rating
AZ-02 OPEN +4.9 Lean D AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran +1.1 Likely D CA-10 Jeff Denham +3.0 Toss Up IL-17 Cheri Bustos +0.7 Safe D
CA-21 David Valadao +15.6 Likely R IA-02 Dave Loebsack +4.1 Safe D
CA-25 Steve Knight +6.7 Toss Up MN-01 OPEN +14.9 Toss Up
CA-39 OPEN +8.6 Toss Up MN-07 Collin Peterson +30.8 Likely D
CA-45 Mimi Walters +5.4 Toss Up MN-08 OPEN +15.6 Lean R
CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher +1.7 Toss Up NV-03 OPEN +1.0 Lean D
CA-49 OPEN +7.5 Lean D NH-01 OPEN +1.6 Likely D
CO-06 Mike Coffman +8.9 Lean D NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer +1.1 Likely D
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo +16.2 Toss Up NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney +1.9 Safe D FL-27 OPEN +19.7 Lean D WI-03 Ron Kind +4.5 Safe D
IL-06 Peter Roskam +7.0 Lean D
KS-03 Kevin Yoder +1.2 Lean D
MN-03 Erik Paulsen +9.5 Lean D
NJ-07 Leonard Lance +1.1 Toss Up
NY-24 John Katko +3.6 Lean R
TX-07 John Culberson +1.4 Toss Up
TX-23 Will Hurd +3.4 Lean R
TX-32 Pete Sessions +1.9 Toss Up
VA-10 Barbara Comstock +9.9 Lean D
WA-08 OPEN +3.0 Toss Up *Does not include PA-6, PA-7, and PA-17, which have since been redistricted
REDISTRICTING IN PA The new PA congressional map gives Democrats an opportunity to erase the GOP 13-5 seat advantage.
8
THE HOUSE - MAJORITY MAKERS STATES TO WATCH
GOP GOP
SEATSSEATS DEM DEM
SEATSSEATS
GOP GOP SEATSSEATS
DEM DEM SEATSSEATS
GOP GOP
SEATSSEATS DEM DEM
SEATSSEATS
GOP GOP SEATSSEATS
DEM DEM SEATSSEATS
PA
TOTAL: 7 Likely D: 3 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 2
TOTAL: 1 Likely R
CA
TOTAL: 7 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 5 Lean R: 1
- FL
TOTAL: 6 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 3
- IL
TOTAL: 4 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 2
-
NJ
TOTAL: 4 Likely D: 1 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 2
- VA
TOTAL: 4 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 1
- TX TOTAL: 4
Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 2
- NY TOTAL: 5
Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 3
-
WA TOTAL: 3
Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 2
- NC TOTAL: 3
Toss Up: 2 Lean R: 1
- IA
TOTAL: 3 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 1
- KS TOTAL: 2 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 1
-
OH TOTAL: 2
Toss Up: 1 Lean R: 1
- MI TOTAL: 2 Lean D: 1 Toss Up: 1
- MN TOTAL: 2 Lean D: 2
TOTAL: 2 Lean R:1
Toss Up: 1
9
THE HOUSE
TOSS UP RACESTOSS UP RACES
District Current
Seat Democrat Republican
2016 Presidential Election
Outcome
DD RR
CA-10 Josh Harder Jeff Denham Clinton +3
CA-25 Katie Hill Steve Knight Clinton +7
CA-39 Gil Cisneros Young Kim Clinton +9
CA-45 Katie Porter Mimi Walters Clinton +5
CA-48 Harley Rouda Dana Rohrabacher Clinton +2
FL-15 Kristen Carlson Ross Spano Trump +10
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Carlos Curbelo Clinton +16
IA-03 Cindy Axne David Young Trump +3
IL-14 Lauren Underwood Randy Hultgren Trump +4
KS-02 Paul Davis Steve Watkins Trump +18
KY-06 Amy McGrath Andy Barr Trump +15
ME-02 Jared Golden Bruce Poliquin Trump +10
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin Mike Bishop Trump +7
MN-01 Dan Feehan Jim Hagedorn Trump +15
NC-09 Dan McCready Mark Harris Trump +12
NC-13 Kathy Manning Ted Budd Trump +9
NJ-03 Andy Kim Tom MacArthur Trump +6
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski Leonard Lance Clinton +1
NM-02 Xochitl Torres Small Yvette Herrell Trump +11
NY-19 Antonio Delgado John Faso Trump +7
NY-22 Anthony Brindisi Claudia Tenney Trump +15
OH-12 Danny O'Connor Troy Balderson Trump +11
PA-01 Scott Wallace Brian Fitzpatrick Redistricted since 2016
TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher John Culberson Clinton +1
TX-32 Colin Allred Pete Sessions Clinton +2
UT-04 Ben McAdams Mia Love Trump +7
VA-02 Elaine Luria Scott Taylor Trump +3
VA-07 Abigail Spanberger Dave Brat Trump +7
WA-08 Kim Schrier Dino Rossi Clinton +3
TOTAL RACES WON 0000
Open Seat
10
District Current
Seat Democrat Republican
2016 Presidential Election
Outcome
DD RR
LEAN DEMOCRATIC LEAN DEMOCRATIC
AZ-02 Ann Kirkpatrick Lea Marquez Peterson Clinton +5
CA-49 Mike Levin Diane Harkey Clinton +8
CO-06 Jason Crow Mike Coffman Clinton +8
FL-27 Donna Shalala Maria Elvira Salazar Clinton +20
IA-01 Abby Finkenauer Rod Blum Trump +3
IL-06 Sean Casten Peter Roskam Clinton +7
KS-03 Sharice Davids Kevin Yoder Clinton +1
MI-11 Haley Stevens Lena Epstein Trump +4
MN-02 Angie Craig Jason Lewis Trump +1
MN-03 Dean Phillips Erik Paulsen Clinton +9
NJ-11 Mikie Sherrill Jay Webber Trump +1
NV-03 Susie Lee Danny Tarkanian Trump +1
NV-04 Steven Horsford Cresent Hardy Clinton +5
PA-07 Susan Wild Marty Nothstein Redistricted since 2016
VA-10 Jennifer Wexton Barbara Comstock Clinton +10
TOTAL RACES WON 0000
LEAN REPUBLICAN LEAN REPUBLICAN AK-AL Alyse Galvin Don Young Trump +15
CA-50 Ammar Campa-Najjar Duncan Hunter Trump +15
FL-06 Nancy Soderberg Michael Waltz Trump +17
FL-16 David Shapiro Vern Buchanan Trump +11
FL-18 Lauren Baer Brian Mast Trump +9
GA-06 Lucy McBath Karen Handel Trump +2
GA-07 Carolyn Bourdeaux Rob Woodall Trump +6
IA-04 JD Scholten Steve King Trump +27
IL-12 Brendan Kelly Mike Bost Trump +15
IL-13 Besty Dirksen Londrigan Rodney Davis Trump +5
MN-08 Joe Radinovich Pete Stauber Trump +16
MO-02 Cort VanOstran Ann Wagner Trump +10
MT-AL Kathleen Williams Greg Gianforte Trump +20
NC-02 Linda Coleman George Holding Trump +11
NE-02 Kara Eastman Don Bacon Trump +2
NY-11 Max Rose Dan Donovan Trump +10
NY-24 Dana Balter John Katko Clinton +4
NY-27 Nate McMurray Chris Collins Trump +24
OH-01 Aftab Pureval Steve Chabot Trump +7
PA-10 George Scott Scott Perry Redistricted since 2016
PA-16 Ron DiNicola Mike Kelly Redistricted since 2016
SC-01 Joe Cunningham Katie Arrington Trump +13
TX-22 Sri Kulkarni Pete Olson Trump +8
TX-23 Gina Ortiz Jones Will Hurd Clinton +4
VA-05 Leslie Cockburn Denver Riggleman Trump +11
WA-03 Carolyn Long Jaime Herrera Beutler Trump +7
WA-05 Lisa Brown Cathy McMorris Rodgers Trump +13
WI-01 Randy Bryce Bryan Steil Trump +10
WV-03 Richard Ojeda Carol Miller Trump +49
TOTAL RACES WON 0000
Open Seat
11
District Current
Seat Democrat Republican 2016 Pres. Winner
Outcome
DD RR
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
AZ-01 Tom O'Halleran Wendy Rogers Trump +1
CA-07 Ami Bera Andrew Grant Clinton +11
CA-16 Jim Costa Elizabeth Heng Clinton +21
FL-07 Stephanie Murphy Mike Miller Clinton +7
MN-07 Collin Peterson Dave Hughes Trump +31
NH-01 Chris Pappas Eddie Edwards Trump +2
NJ-02 Jeff Van Drew Seth Grossman Trump +5
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer John McCann Trump +1
PA-05 Mary Scanlon Pearl Kim Redistricted since 2016
PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan Greg McCauley Redistricted since 2016
PA-08 Matt Cartwright John Chrin Redistricted since 2016
PA-17 Conor Lamb Keith Rothfus Redistricted since 2016
TOTAL RACES WON 0000
LIKELY REPUBLICANLIKELY REPUBLICAN
AR-02 Clarke Tucker French Hill Trump +11
AZ-06 Anita Malik David Schweikert Trump +10
AZ-08 Hiral Tipirneni Debbie Lesko Trump +21
CA-01 Audrey Denney Doug LaMalfa Trump +19
CA-04 Jessica Morse Tom McClintock Trump +15
CA-21 TJ Cox David Valadao Clinton +15
CA-22 Andrew Janz Devin Nunes Trump +9
CO-03 Diane Mitsch Bush Scott Tipton Trump +12
FL-25 Mary Barzee Flores Mario Diaz-Balart Trump +2
IN-02 Mel Hall Jackie Walorski Trump +23
MI-01 Matt Morgan Jack Bergman Trump +21
MI-03 Cathy Albro Justin Amash Trump +9
MI-06 Matt Longjohn Fred Upton Trump +8
MI-07 Gretchen Driskell Tim Walberg Trump +17
NC-08 Frank McNeill Richard Hudson Trump +15
NY-01 Perry Gershon Lee Zeldin Trump +12
NY-02 Liuba Grechen Shirley Pete King Trump +9
NY-21 Tedra Cobb Elise Stefanik Trump +14
NY-23 Tracy Mitrano Tom Reed Trump +15
OH-10 Theresa Gasper Mike Turner Trump +7
OH-14 Betsy Rader Dave Joyce Trump +11
OK-05 Kendra Horn Steve Russell Trump +14
PA-14 Bibiana Boerio Guy Reschenthaler Redistricted since 2016
TX-02 Todd Litton Dan Crenshaw Trump +9
TX-21 Joseph Kopser Chip Roy Trump +10
TX-24 Jan McDowell Kenny Marchant Trump +6
TX-31 "MJ" Hegar John Carter Trump +13
WI-06 Dan Kohl Glenn Grothman Trump +17
TOTAL RACES WON 0000
Open Seat
12
SOLID DEMOCRATIC RACES (182)SOLID DEMOCRATIC RACES (182) DistrictDistrict Democratic Candidate DistrictDistrict Democratic Candidate DistrictDistrict Democratic Candidate DistrictDistrict Democratic Candidate
ALAL--0707 Terri Sewell CTCT--0505 Jahana Hayes MD-07 Elijah Cummings OROR--0101 Suzanne Bonamici
AZAZ--0303 Raul Grijalva DEDE--0101 Lisa Blunt Rochester MDMD--0808 Jamie Raskin OROR--0303 Earl Blumenauer
AZAZ--0707 Ruben Gallego FLFL--0505 Al Lawson MEME--0101 Chellie Pingree OROR--0404 Pete DeFazio
AZAZ--0909 Greg Stanton FLFL--0909 Darren Soto MIMI--0505 Dan Kildee OROR--0505 Kurt Schrader
CACA--0202 Jared Huffman FLFL--1010 Val Demings MIMI--0909 Andy Levin PAPA--0202 Brendan Boyle
CACA--0303 John Garamendi FLFL--1313 Charlie Crist MIMI--1212 Debbie Dingell PAPA--0303 Dwight Evans
CACA--0505 Mike Thompson FLFL--1414 Kathy Castor MIMI--1313 Rashida Tlaib PAPA--0404 Madeleine Dean
CACA--0606 Doris Matsui
Jrmar Jefferson FLFL--2020 Alcee Hastings MIMI--1414 Brenda Lawrence PAPA--1818 Mike Doyle
CACA--0909 Jerry McNerney FLFL--2121 Lois Frankel MNMN--0404 Betty McCollum RIRI--0101 David Cicilline
CACA--1111 Mark DeSaulnier FLFL--2222 Ted Deutch MNMN--0505 Ilhan Omar RIRI--0202 Jim Langevin
CACA--1212 Nancy Pelosi FLFL--2323 Debbie Wasserman
Schultz MOMO--0101 Lacy Clay SCSC--0606 Jim Clyburn
CACA--1313 Barbara Lee FLFL--2424 Frederica Wilson MOMO--0505 Emanuel Cleaver TNTN--0505 Jim Cooper
CACA--1414 Jackie Speier GAGA--0202 Sanford Bishop MSMS--0202 Bennie Thompson TNTN--0909 Steve Cohen
CACA--1515 Eric Swalwell GAGA--0404 Hank Johnson NCNC--0101 G.K. Butterfield TXTX--0909 Al Green
CACA--1717 Ro Khanna GAGA--0505 John Lewis NCNC--0404 David Price TXTX--1515 Vicente Gonzalez
CACA--1818 Anna Eshoo GAGA--1313 David Scott NCNC--1212 Alma Adams TXTX--1616 Veronica Escobar
CACA--1919 Zoe Lofgren HIHI--0101 Ed Case NH-02 Ann Kuster TXTX--1818 Sheila Jackson Lee
CACA--2020 Jimmy Panetta HIHI--0202 Tulsi Gabbard NJ-01 Donald Norcross TXTX--2020 Joaquin Castro
CACA--2424 Salud Carbajal IAIA--0202 Dave Loebsack NJ-06 Frank Pallone TXTX--2828 Henry Cuellar
CACA--2626 Julia Brownley ILIL--0101 Bobby Rush NJ-08 Albio Sires TXTX--2929 Sylvia Garcia
CACA--2727 Judy Chu
Bryan Witt ILIL--0202 Robin Kelly NJ-09 Bill Pascrell TXTX--3030 Eddie Bernice Johnson
CACA--2828 Adam Schiff ILIL--0303 Dan Lipinski NJ-10 Donald Payne Jr. TXTX--3333 Marc Veasey
CACA--2929 Tony Cardenas ILIL--0404 Jesus "Chuy" Garcia NJ-12 Bonnie Watson Coleman TXTX--3434 Filemon Vela
CACA--3030 Brad Sherman ILIL--0505 Mike Quigley NM-01 Debra Haaland TXTX--3535 Lloyd Doggett
CACA--3131 Pete Aguilar ILIL--0707 Danny Davis NM-03 Ben Ray Lujan VAVA--0303 Bobby Scott
CACA--3232 Grace Napolitano ILIL--0808 Raja Krishnamoorthi NV-01 Dina Titus VAVA--0404 Don McEachin
CACA--3333 Ted Lieu ILIL--0909 Janice Schakowsky NY-03 Thomas Suozzi VAVA--0808 Don Beyer
CACA--3434 Jimmy Gomez ILIL--1010 Bradley Schneider NY-04 Kathleen Rice VAVA--1111 Gerry Connolly
CACA--3535 Norma Torres ILIL--1111 Bill Foster NY-05 Gregory Meeks VTVT--ALAL Peter Welch
CACA--3636 Raul Ruiz ILIL--1717 Cheri Bustos NY-06 Grace Meng WAWA--0101 Suzan DelBene
CACA--3737 Karen Bass ININ--0101 Pete Visclosky NY-07 Nydia Velazquez WAWA--0202 Rick Larsen
CACA--3838 Linda Sanchez ININ--0707 Andre Carson NY-08 Hakeem Jeffries WAWA--0606 Derek Kilmer
CACA--4040 Lucille Roybal-Allard KYKY--0303 John Yarmuth NY-09 Yvette Clarke WAWA--0707 Pramila Jayapal
CACA--4141 Mark Takano LALA--0202 Cedric Richmond NY-10 Jerrold Nadler WAWA--0909 Adam Smith
CACA--4343 Maxine Waters MAMA--0101 Richard Neal NY-12 Carolyn Maloney WAWA--1010 Denny Heck
CACA--4444 Nanette Barragan MAMA--0202 Jim McGovern NY-13 Adriano Espaillat WIWI--0202 Mark Pocan
CACA--4646 Lou Correa MAMA--0303 Lori Trahan NY-14 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez WIWI--0303 Ron Kind
CACA--4747 Alan Lowenthal MAMA--0404 Joe Kennedy NY-15 Jose Serrano WIWI--0404 Gwen Moore
CACA--5151 Juan Vargas MAMA--0505 Katherine Clark NY-16 Eliot Engel
CACA--5252 Scott Peters MAMA--0606 Seth Moulton NY-17 Nita Lowey
CACA--5353 Susan Davis MAMA--0707 Ayanna Pressley NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney
COCO--0101 Diana DeGette MAMA--0808 Stephen Lynch NY-20 Paul Tonko
COCO--0202 Joe Neguse MAMA--0909 Bill Keating NY-25 Joe Morelle
COCO--0707 Ed Perlmutter MD-02 Dutch Ruppersberger NY-26 Brian Higgins
CTCT--0101 John Larson MD-03 John Sarbanes OH-03 Joyce Beatty
CTCT--0202 Joe Courtney MD-04 Anthony Brown OH-09 Marcy Kaptur
CTCT--0303 Rosa DeLauro MD-05 Steny Hoyer OH-11 Marcia Fudge
CTCT--0404 Jim Himes MD-06 David Trone OH-13 Tim Ryan
Open Seat
13
SOLID REPUBLICAN RACES (140)SOLID REPUBLICAN RACES (140) DistrictDistrict Republican Candidate DistrictDistrict Republican Candidate DistrictDistrict Republican Candidate
ALAL--0101 Bradley Byrne KYKY--0101 James Comer PAPA--1111 Lloyd Smucker
ALAL--0202 Martha Roby KYKY--0202 Brett Guthrie PAPA--1212 Tom Marino
ALAL--0303 Mike Rogers KYKY--0404 Thomas Massie PAPA--1313 John Joyce
ALAL--0404 Robert Aderholt KYKY--0505 Hal Rogers PAPA--1515 Glenn Thompson
ALAL--0505 Mo Brooks LALA--0101 Steve Scalise SCSC--0202 Joe Wilson
ALAL--0606 Gary Palmer LALA--0303 Clay Higgins SCSC--0303 Jeff Duncan
ARAR--0101 Rick Crawford LALA--0404 Mike Johnson SCSC--0404 William Timmons
ARAR--0303 Steve Womack LALA--0505 Ralph Abraham Jr. SCSC--0505 Ralph Norman
ARAR--0404 Bruce Westerman LALA--0606 Garret Graves SCSC--0707 Tom Rice
AZAZ--0404 Paul Gosar MD-01 Andy Harris SDSD--ALAL Dusty Johnson
AZAZ--0505 Andy Biggs MIMI--0202 Bill Huizenga TNTN--0101 Phil Roe
CACA--0808 Paul Cook
Tim Donnelly
MIMI--0404 John Moolenaar TNTN--0202 Tim Burchett
MIMI--1010 Paul Mitchell TNTN--0303 Chuck Fleischmann
CACA--2323 Kevin McCarthy MNMN--0606 Tom Emmer TNTN--0404 Scott Desjarlais
CACA--4242 Ken Calvert MOMO--0303 Blaine Luetkemeyer TNTN--0606 John Rose
COCO--0404 Ken Buck MOMO--0404 Vicky Hartzler TNTN--0707 Mark Green
COCO--0505 Doug Lamborn MOMO--0606 Sam Graves TNTN--0808 David Kustoff
FLFL--0101 Matt Gaetz MOMO--0707 Billy Long TXTX--0101 Louie Gohmert
FLFL--0202 Neal Dunn MOMO--0808 Jason Smith TXTX--0303 Van Taylor
FLFL--0303 Ted Yoho MSMS--0101 Trent Kelly TXTX--0404 John Ratcliffe
FLFL--0404 John Rutherford MSMS--0303 Michael Guest TXTX--0505 Lance Gooden
FLFL--0808 Bill Posey MSMS--0404 Steven Palazzo TXTX--0606 Ron Wright
FLFL--1111 Dan Webster NCNC--0303 Walter Jones TXTX--0808 Kevin Brady
FLFL--1212 Gus Bilirakis NCNC--0505 Virginia Foxx TXTX--1010 Michael McCaul
FLFL--1717 Greg Steube NCNC--0606 Mark Walker TXTX--1111 Mike Conaway
FLFL--1919 Francis Rooney NCNC--0707 David Rouzer TXTX--1212 Kay Granger
GAGA--0101 Buddy Carter NCNC--1010 Patrick McHenry TXTX--1313 Mac Thornberry
GAGA--0303 Drew Ferguson NCNC--1111 Mark Meadows TXTX--1414 Randy Weber
GAGA--0808 Austin Scott NDND--ALAL Kelly Armstrong TXTX--1717 Bill Flores
GAGA--0909 Doug Collins NENE--0101 Jeff Fortenberry TXTX--1919 Jodey Arrington
GAGA--1010 Jody Hice NENE--0303 Adrian Smith TXTX--2525 Roger Williams
GAGA--1111 Barry Loudermilk NJ-04 Chris Smith TXTX--2626 Mike Burgess
GAGA--1212 Rick Allen NV-02 Mark Amodei TXTX--2727 Michael Cloud
GAGA--1414 Tom Graves OH-02 Brad Wenstrup TXTX--3636 Brian Babin
IDID--0101 Russ Fulcher OH-04 Jim Jordan UTUT--0101 Rob Bishop
IDID--0202 Mike Simpson OH-05 Bob Latta UTUT--0202 Chris Stewart
ILIL--1515 John Shimkus OH-06 Bill Johnson UTUT--0303 John Curtis
ILIL--1616 Adam Kinzinger OH-07 Bob Gibbs VAVA--0101 Rob Wittman
ILIL--1818 Darin LaHood OH-08 Warren Davidson VAVA--0606 Ben Cline
ININ--0303 Jim Banks OH-15 Steve Stivers VAVA--0909 Morgan Griffith
ININ--0404 Jim Baird OH-16 Anthony Gonzalez WAWA--0404 Dan Newhouse
ININ--0505 Susan Brooks OKOK--0101 Kevin Hern WIWI--0505 Jim Sensenbrenner
ININ--0606 Greg Pence OKOK--0202 Markwayne Mullin WIWI--0707 Sean Duffy
ININ--0808 Larry Bucshon OKOK--0303 Frank Lucas WIWI--0808 Mike Gallagher
ININ--0909 Trey Hollingsworth OKOK--0404 Tom Cole WVWV--0101 David McKinley
KSKS--0101 Roger Marshall OROR--0202 Greg Walden WVWV--0202 Alex Mooney
KSKS--0404 Ron Estes PAPA--0909 Dan Meuser WYWY--0101 Liz Cheney
Open Seat
14
GOVERNOR RACE RATINGS
State Current
Seat Democrat Republican
2016 Presidential Election
TOSS UP RACESTOSS UP RACES
Connecticut Ned Lamont Bob Stefanowski Clinton +13
Florida Andrew Gillum Ron DeSantis Trump +1
Georgia Stacey Abrams Brian Kemp Trump +6
Iowa Fred Hubbell Kim Reynolds Trump +9
Kansas Laura Kelly Kris Kobach Trump +21
Maine Janet Mills Shawn Moody Clinton +2
Nevada Steve Sisolek Adam Laxalt Clinton +2
Ohio Richard Cordray Mike DeWine Trump +8
Oklahoma Drew Edmondson Kevin Stitt Trump +36
Oregon Kate Brown Knute Buehler Clinton +10
South Dakota Billie Sutton Kristi Noem Trump +30
Wisconsin Tony Evers Scott Walker Trump +0.7
LEAN DEMOCRATICLEAN DEMOCRATIC
Colorado Jared Polis Walter Stapleton Clinton +3
Michigan Gretchen Whitmer Bill Schuette Trump +0.3
New Mexico Michelle Lujan Grisham Steve Pearce Clinton +8
Rhode Island Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Clinton +15
LEAN REPUBLICAN LEAN REPUBLICAN
Alaska Mark Begich Mike Dunleavey Trump +15
New Hampshire Molly Kelly Chris Sununu Clinton +0.4
LIKELY DEMOCRATICLIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Illinois J.B. Pritzker Bruce Rauner Clinton +16
Minnesota Tim Walz Jeff Johnson Clinton +1
Pennsylvania Tom Wolf Scott Wagner Trump +0.7
LIKELY REPUBLICANLIKELY REPUBLICAN
Arizona David Garcia Doug Ducey Trump +4
Maryland Ben Jealous Larry Hogan Clinton +25
South Carolina James Smith Henry McMaster Trump +14
Tennessee Karl Dean Bill Lee Trump +26
SAFE DEMOCRATICSAFE DEMOCRATIC
California Gavin Newsome John Cox Clinton +29
Hawaii David Ige Andria Tupola Clinton +32
New York Andrew Cuomo Marc Molinaro Clinton +21
SAFE REPUBLICANSAFE REPUBLICAN
Alabama Walt Maddox Kay Ivey Trump +28
Arkansas Jared Henderson Asa Hutchinson Trump +26
Idaho Paulette Jordan Brad Little Trump +32
Massachusetts Jay Gonzalez Charlie Baker Clinton +27
Nebraska Bob Krist Pete Ricketts Trump +25
Texas Lupe Valdez Greg Abbott Trump +9
Vermont Christine Hallquist Phil Scott Clinton +28
Wyoming Mary Throne Mark Gordon Trump +46
Open Seat
