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Effects of Everglades Restora1on on Sea Level Rise Resilience in Urban Miami
Dr. Todd A. Crowl Director, Institute for Water & the Environment
Director, Southeast Environmental Research Center Florida International University
Sustainable South Florida
Global Change
SLR, Storms
Urban Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Restora=on Ecosystem Services
Everglades Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Sea level rise will interact with changes in precipita=on and temperature
South Florida Temperature Projections
South Florida Rainfall
Projections
IPCC Climate Change Scenario Descrip=ons: Most Pessimis=c Assumes a “business as usual” aItude, or liJle to no response to adverse climate change affects. Most Op=mis=c Assumes a concerted, global effort to mi=gate human impacts.
South Florida is very vulnerable to SLR
Sustainable South Florida
Global Change
SLR, Storms
Urban Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Restora=on Ecosystem Services
Everglades Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Sea Level Rise Projec=ons
Inunda=on in Urban Miami
Maps courtesy Pete Harlem, GIS lab, FIU
Flooding in Miami
Miami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade County
Credit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERM
Miami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERM
Miami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERM
Alton Rd between 8th and 10th streets has been flooding every year for the past 7 years at least.
What is a perigean spring =de “aka King Tide”?
Alton Road, Miami Beach October 2013
Sea level rise and saltwater intrusion
Limestone
SLR + popula=on growth = a threatened urban water supply
In 2010 Popula=on = 5.6 million Water demand = 1.8 billion gal./day
By 2030 Popula=on = 6.6 million Water demand = 2.1 billion gal./day
Since 1985, there has been a decline in the available freshwater resources of 12–17% in the Biscayne Aquifer.
A threatened water supply
Blanco et al. Applied Geochemistry 38, 48-58. 2013.
Sustainable South Florida
Global Change
SLR, Storms
Urban Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Restora=on Ecosystem Services
Everglades Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
The Florida Everglades – Pre-human management
The Changing Everglades Landscape
Pre-Drainage Post-Drainage The Everglades is now half its original extent
Recr
eati
ons
by C
. M
cVoy
Phot
o: F
. To
bias
The Changing Everglades Landscape
Everglades is also very vulnerable to climate change, sea level rise
Pre-Drainage Post-Drainage
Vulnerability due to: • Porous, shallow limestone aquifer suscep=ble to intrusion
• Thin peat soils caused by evapora=on and drainage
• Long exposed coastline, low & flat topography
• Lost natural water storage (small changes in rain triggers floods or droughts)
Peat Collapse
Peat Collapse -‐ a possible consequence of rapid SLR
Marsh Subsidence
Peat accre=on needs to keep pace with sea level rise
Peat Collapse – a subject of intense scien=fic study in the Everglades
Large and small scale experiments to understand the causes and consequences of soil collapse
Troxler, Sklar et. al. experiment
Exposure of sawgrass peats to nutrients and salinity s=mulates microbial decomposi=on of soils, causing a posi=ve feedback to salt-‐water encroachment
Experimental manipula=on of salinity and phosphorus
Peat Collapse – a subject of intense scien=fic study in the Everglades
Sustainable South Florida
Global Change
SLR, Storms
Urban Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Restora=on Ecosystem Services
Everglades Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Adapta=ons to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
Historic Flow Current Flow Restored Flow
Everglades restora=on will increase the resilience of the natural & built ecosystem
Adapta1ons to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
Historic Flow Current Flow Restored Flow
Arrows show dry season seawater INFLUX into the Everglades creeks and groundwater
(not to scale)
2 Foot SLR No Flow Restora=on
Sea level rise with freshwater restora=on 2 Foot SLR + Flow Restora=on
Southeast Environmental
Research Center
Protec=ng mangroves protects “blue carbon” in mangrove soils
Mangroves accumulate more CO2 than many tropical forests Soils build at rate similar to SLR ~3 mm per year
Barr, Fuentes, Engel, Rivera-Monroy
• Increase water storage, extending the life of
wellfields, • Restore freshwater flows through the
Everglades, • Push back saltwater intrusion, securing water
supply, • Protect water quality, • Protect soils and mangrove buffering,
Everglades restora=on will increase the resilience of the natural & built ecosystem
Sustainable South Florida
Global Change
SLR, Storms
Urban Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Restora=on Ecosystem Services
Everglades Vulnerability
and Adapta=on
Total Ecosystem Value (TEV) Decreases with SLR
• TEV dec from $74B to $5B with 5 p SLR • C sequestra=on value dec from $32M to $490K
• Sea level will keep rising – projec=on certainty will improve in coming years
• Sea level rise affects surface flooding, fresh groundwater supplies and natural resources • Adapta=on strategies exist through Everglades restora=on
Southeast Environmental
Research Center
Southeast Environmental
Research Center