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EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA’S FOREIGN POLICY
– THE CASE OF CHINA
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
EXECUTIVE MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION AT
THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN
BY AYANDA NTSALUBA
2011
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PLAGIARISM STATEMENT
I, AYANDA NTSALUBA, declare that:
1. I know plagiarism is wrong. Plagiarism is to use another’s work and pretend that
it is your own.
2. I have used a recognised convention for citation and referencing. Each significant
contribution and quotation from the works of other people has been attributed,
cited and referenced.
3. I certify that the submission is all my own work.
4. I have not allowed and will not allow anyone to copy this paper with the intention
of passing it off as his or her own work.
Signature: Ayanda Ntsaluba Date: April 2011
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ABSTRACT
Foreign policy is an important tool that is employed to leverage international opportunities to
help address domestic challenges. Effectiveness of foreign policy deployment helps improve
the welfare of citizens. It is against this backdrop that South Africa has seen a significant
expansion of its diplomatic relations since the advent of democracy. This is seen as a critical
intervention necessary to help address the myriad of challenges that the country faces.
The world has seen significant shifts in global geopolitics. This has been characterised by the
growing power and influence of key emerging economies of the South. Attending this has
been growth in their global influence. Central among these is China. China’s rise has been
phenomenal. It is the second biggest global economy having surpassed Japan recently. It also
boasts huge reserves and with a population of 1.3 billion has a huge internal market. Its
economic performance has averaged 10% growth of GDP per annum over the past decade
making it one of the main drivers of global growth.
South Africa and China established full diplomatic relations in 1998. Building on good
historical ties forged during mutual solidarity in the anti-colonial struggles, South Africa and
China have deepened their political relations. Bilateral trade has also increased. Yet, this
trade is not supportive of South Africa’s overall industrial strategy in a sustainable manner.
This is so because SA largely exports to China primary commodities and imports value added
products. Foreign Direct Investment from China is also not impressive. South Africa also
does not seem to have benefitted from the preferred destination status granted by China.
Overall, there is a sense that the good political relations have not translated into sustainable
economic relations pointing to weaknesses in foreign policy deployment. This is the principal
concern that this study seeks to address.
The key question is what SA should do to improve the effectiveness of its strategic
deployment of foreign policy in China. China is chosen as the case study because of the
enormous opportunities it presents. Also because engagement with China straddles virtually
all of South Africa’s foreign policy priorities. This would ensure that some of the results of
this study have wider relevance.
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The relevant literature was reviewed and points to the changing nature of International
Relations. Largely as a result of globalisation, there is a definite shift from a state-centric
approach to foreign policy deployment to the recognition of the important role of non state
actors. This results in the overriding image of “a cobweb of diverse actors linked through
multiple channels of interaction”. This leads to major challenges of coordination and a shared
definition of purpose around which different stakeholders can be mobilised to achieve goals.
In addition, there is a growing recognition of the role of human decision-makers. This brings
with it the need to understand cultural factors and social construction within a culture. This
important role of culture is further validated in this study.
The philosophical basis of the study is a Critical Realist perspective. Data collection is based
on purposive sampling and primarily a conversational interview process. All those
interviewed had extensive knowledge and involvement in China. Furthermore, they
represented a variety of stakeholders. The Grounded Theory methodology (GTM) was
employed respecting particularly its key properties of emergent design, constant comparison
and theoretical coding. The GTM was employed to uncover the generative mechanisms that
would explain the observed phenomenon of the suboptimal leveraging of the relationship
with China. The whole research is anchored on a systems approach and the systems
methodology employed to develop a solutions model is the Soft Systems Methodology
(SSM).
The use of the GTM and SSM in combination is deemed appropriate for this study. They are
both suited for interactional situations and complement each other to provide a more holistic
picture of the situation.
All those interviewed felt the study was relevant as they shared the view that the relationship
with China was strategic for SA and required to be effectively leveraged. All those
interviewed felt there was scope for improvement in our deployment of foreign policy.
Analysis of the data from the GTM process revealed:
• level of understanding of China,
• degree of understanding and leveraging of the political relations,
• degree of sensitivity to the role of culture,
• degree of clarity and coherence particularly of economic strategy being pursued,
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• level of coordination and
• level of capacity
as the key categories to emerge. Understanding China, its politics and cultural sensitivity
emerged as the critical drivers. Understanding China stands out as the principal driver of the
system.
A solutions model was then developed using an SSM. This identified specific interventions
and actions, which constitute the answer to the question posed in this study, that if undertaken
would leverage the critical drivers. The key interventions identified were:
• Pooling private and public sector knowledge and resources
• Training in Chinese culture and language
• Communication
• Focused training and development of specialists in Chinese studies
The results of the study were evaluated against the criteria of relevance, utility, validity and
ethics. Overall the study was found to be relevant and valid. The overall research
methodology used especially with regards to the use of GTM and the selection of participants
from different stakeholders and with extensive experience of China served to enhance the
validity of the results of the study. The study has also contributed to an understanding of how
to improve effective strategic deployment of foreign policy in China by South Africa.
The study was also found to advance ethical considerations based on the use of the model for
moral judgement advocated by Velasquez. This is particularly so as the study seeks to benefit
and improve the welfare of the citizenry of South Africa in a non discriminatory manner and
without inflicting social injury to others.
While some elements of the study have relevance only to the relationship with China, there
are other elements that have wider application.
This study, by highlighting the role of culture, validates the body of literature that calls for
greater recognition of the role of human decision-makers in international relations. This study
was also found to have implications for policy and practice.
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This study as well as the literature highlighted the challenges faced in measuring
success/effectiveness in foreign policy deployment. A lot of studies in foreign policy focus on
process rather than output. It is suggested that at a macro level, this is an area in urgent need
of future research.
At a micro level, areas for further research are identified including a follow-up study of
South Africa’s deployment of foreign policy in China after the identified interventions have
been implemented.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Plagiarism Statement ii
Abstract iii
Contents page vii
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
Glossary of Terms xiv
Acknowledgement xv
1. CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
1
1.1 Background 1
1.1.1 Why China
1.1.2 Role of politics in China
1.1.3 South Africa’s relation with China
1.1.4 Strategic importance of Africa
2
4
5
8
1.2 Assessment of the current Sino-SA relations 14
1.2.1 Importance of building Capacity
1.2.2 Importance of Coordination
15
15
1.2.3 Force Field Analysis 17
1.2.4 Dynamics of the variables related to key concern
18
1.3 Research Question 19
1.3.1 Research Question Formulation 19
1.3.2 Justification for the research
20
1.4 Overview of the Methodology
21
1.5 Delimitations of Scope and key Assumptions
22
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1.6 Conclusion 23
2. CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
25
2.1 Introduction 25
2.2. Understanding the context of international relations 25
2.2.1 Theoretical Approaches in International Relations 27
2.2.2 The importance of non-state actors and supranational structures 29
2.2.3 The importance of Coordination 31
2.2.4 Diversity and the role of culture 31
2.3 Foreign policy deployment as a tool to advance national interest 36
2.3.1 Foreign Policy implementation 37
2.3.2 What citizens expect from foreign policy 37
2.4 Assessing success or effectiveness in foreign policy deployment. 38
2.5 Conclusion 39
3. CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
41
3.1 Introduction 41
3.2 Philosophical foundation 41
3.2.1 Ontological and Epistemological basis of this research 43
3.2.2 Critical Realism 44
3.3 Data collection 45
3.3.1 Interview Process 45
3.3.2 Data Capture 46
3.3.3 Ethical considerations 46
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3.3.4 Participant selection 46
3.4 Grounded Theory 47
3.4.1 Emergent design 48
3.4.2 Constant comparison, Theoretical sampling, Saturation and
Theoretical coding
49
3.5 Systems Approach 50
3.5.1 Soft Systems Methodology 51
4. CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS
53
4.1 Introduction 53
4.2 Data Presentation and Analysis 53
4.2.1 Collection of Empirical Data 54
4.2.2 Response of participants on the Study 55
4.2.3 Concept formation: coding and emergent categories 55
4.2.4 Concept Modification and Integration (Emergence of core variables) 58
4.3 Data Interpretation and development of a theoretical code 60
4.4 Development of a Solutions model
63
4.5 Conclusion
65
5. CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND EVALUATION 67
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Conclusion about the Research Question 5.3 Explanation of Results 5.3.1 Understanding China
67
69
69
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5.3.2 Relationship between politics and economics
5.3.3 Challenge of coordination
5.3.4 Importance of a coherent strategy and focus
5.4 Implications for Theory 5.5 Implications for Policy and Practice 5.6 Research Evaluation 5.6.1 Relevance 5.6.2 Utility 5.6.3 Validity 5.6.4 Ethics
5.7 Limitations
5.8 Implications for further Research
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
79
80
6. REFERENCE 82
7. APPENDICES
Appendix A : Research Design Framework 90
Appendix B : Soft Systems Methodology 92
Appendix C : Interview Data 101
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page No
Figure 1: Dissertation Layout xvi
Chapter 1:
Figure 1.1: China’s Real GDP Growth 3
Figure 1.2: China’s Demand for and Production of Natural
Resources
4
Figure 1.3: South African Trade with China 7
Figure 1.4: Improved Macroeconomic stability of African
governments
9
Figure 1.5: Increase in capital flows to African countries 10
Figure 1.6: Share of African households with discretionary
spending power
11
Figure 1.7: China’s Trade with Africa 12
Figure 1.8: Rich Picture 13
Figure 1.9: Force Field Analysis 17
Figure 1.10: Dynamics of the variables related to the key concern 18
Chapter 3:
Figure 3.1: Systemic Management Research Framework 42
Figure 3.2: Critical Realism 44
Figure 3.3: Stages of Grounded Theory 47
Chapter 4:
Figure 4.1: Substantive Codes after initial interviews 57
Figure 4.2: ID of Key Categories 59
Figure 4.3: Theoretical Code 62
Figure 4.4 : Dynamics between core variables and recommended
actions to enhance strategic deployment of foreign policy
65
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Page No
Appendix B
Figure 6.1: Foreign Government representation in South Africa 91
Figure 6.2: South African Mission Operations Abroad 91
Figure 6.3: Stages of an SSM process 92
Figure 6.4 (1.9): Rich Picture 93
Figure 6.5: Conceptual Model: Business 96
Figure 6.6: Conceptual Model: Government Departments 97
Figure 6.7: Conceptual Model: Department of Foreign Affairs 97
Figure 6.8: Academia 98
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LIST OF TABLES
Pg No
Chapter 1:
Table 1.1: South African Trade with China – Top Ten Products 14
Chapter 2:
Table 2.1: Power Distance and Uncertainty Avoidance 34
Table 2.2: Individualism and Masculinity 34
Table 2.3: Long Term vs. Short Term Orientation 35
Appendix B
Table 6.1: Catwoe of various Stakeholders 94
Table 6.2: Comparison of Models 99
Appendix C
Table 6.3: Research Interview Log 110
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS
BRICS is the forum of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. South Africa was
formally invited to join the forum in December 2010. The forum originated as BRIC
following a study of future economic trends by Goldman Sachs. This study pointed to the
growing global economic influence of the BRIC countries and projected that this is to surpass
that of many of the current G8. That most of these BRIC countries are countries of the South,
suggests a major impact of this development on global political and economic governance.
CHINA in this study refers to the Peoples Republic of China in conformity with the one
China policy as contained in the joint communiqué and the Memorandum of Understanding
signed on 30/12/97 on the establishment of diplomatic relations between South Africa and the
Peoples Republic of China.
IPAP 2 is the Industrial Policy Action Plan adopted by the government of South Africa. A
new version was launched by the Minister of DTI on 6 April 2011. IPAP 1 was approved by
Cabinet in August 2007.
NEW GROWTH PATH refers to an economic strategy recently adopted by the Government
of South Africa. “The strategy sets out critical markers for employment creation and growth
and identifies where viable changes in the structure and character of production can
generate a more inclusive and greener economy over the medium to long run. it combines
macroeconomic and microeconomic interventions” (unpublished government document).
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This work could not have been completed without the support of many.
I would like to thank the faculty and staff of the UCT GSB for making this such an enriching
and wonderful journey and for their readiness to help. My classmates have, through their
camaraderie, made the occasional pain, stress and disappointment bearable.
I also wish to thank the Department of International Relations and Cooperation for allowing
me time to pursue this study. Special thanks go to Tiaan Kriek for his loyal support.
To my family I owe a profound debt of gratitude for their sacrifice, support and
understanding.
To my daughter Nana I dedicate this work and hope it will be the spark that challenges her to
realise her enormous potential.
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DISSERTATION LAYOUT
xvi
Background Assessment of the current Sino‐SA relations
Research Question
Overview of the Methodology Delimitations of Scope and Key Assumptions
Conclusions
Chapter One:
Introduction and Overview
IntroductionUnderstanding the context of international relations
Foreign Policy deployment as a tool to advance national interest
Assessing success or effectiveness in foreign policy Conclusion
Chapter Two:
Literature Review
IntroductionPhilosophical foundation
Data collection Grounded Theory Systems Approach
Chapter Three:
Research Framework
IntroductionData Presentation and Analysis
Data Interpretation Conclusion
Chapter Four:
Research Results
Introduction Conclusions about research question
Explanation of results Implications for theory
Implications for policy and practice Research evaluation
Limitations Im
Chapter Five:
Conclusion and Evaluation
plications for further research
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Foreign policy is an important tool to advance a country’s national interest. Its effective
implementation is important in leveraging international opportunities to address domestic
challenges. This may be by creating favourable policy space through the multilateral system
that underpins global governance. It may also be by improving investment and trade and by
accessing resources and technical expertise through strengthening bilateral relations. Foreign
policy effectiveness is thus an important element that contributes to the overall welfare of a
country’s citizenry. The purpose of this study is to assess the strategic deployment of South
Africa’s foreign policy using China as a case study.
1.1 Background
South Africa has witnessed a rapid expansion of her system of international relations since
the democratic transition of 1994. Prior to this, the apartheid system had been declared a
crime against humanity by the international community and a number of countries
implemented a wide ranging system of sanctions against this country. One of the first tasks of
the new democratic government was to integrate South Africa as a responsible member of the
international community of nations. This entailed establishment of diplomatic relations with a
number of countries. Since then, there has been a significant increase in our diplomatic
representation in foreign capitals. Simultaneously, a number of countries have established
diplomatic presence in South Africa resulting in this country having one of the biggest
diplomatic communities in the world (Department of Foreign Affairs Annual Reports).
At the same time there has been a deliberate effort to diversify economic relations. In essence
this has aimed at establishing South Africa firmly as an African country as opposed to a
dominant view that prevailed, albeit largely at the level of perception, which saw this as a
European outpost on African soil. Furthermore, South Africa has sought to align its system
of international relations to the changing global geopolitics. These have been characterized
by the relentless rise of the emerging powers of the South particularly in the East associated
with their growing influence in the global economy. The centre of gravity of the global
economic geography is shifting with the emergence of China, India and Brazil. This has been
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associated with the re-entry of an assertive Russia as a major global player on the back of its
huge natural endowment particularly in the energy sector.
In this changing global geopolitical configuration, South Africa is keen to retain her
relevance. Currently it sits in a number of formations of the emerging plurilateral system
covering such areas as the environment, global economic governance, nuclear proliferation
etc. In these, it is either the only or one of a few African countries. There is no doubt that
South Africa benefits from a regional power status. It is important for South Africa to
consolidate this status and use it as a basis for a more global role.
1.1.1 Why China
Important as China may be, it is important to be explicit on its choice as the case study for
this research. Essentially there are five main reasons.
1) During the recent State visit (August 2010) China and SA signed a Comprehensive
Strategic Partnership. This elevates the relationship between the two countries. This
arrangement has the effect of both deepening and broadening the scope of interaction.
The immediate challenge for SA is how to ensure that the potential that this
development carries translates into real benefits.
2) The relationship between SA and China virtually covers the whole spectrum of SA’s
international relations priorities. There has been significant growth in virtually every
aspect of the relationship since the establishment of diplomatic relations just over 10
years ago. Given China’s undisputed rise, it is in South Africa’s interest to consolidate
these relationships and continuously seek ways of optimizing the benefits.
3) China is engaging Africa on a massive scale. Given SA’s role and position in the
continent and the centrality of the advancement of the African agenda in SA’s foreign
policy, it is crucial that SA creates a strong platform for continuous engagement with
China.
4) China is by far the dominant force in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
Africa) a forum that SA has just joined. With the membership of BRICS, this would
further enhance South Africa’s stature in global affairs .This would position SA not
only to be seen as a dominant regional player but also as an important global player.
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5) China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council – a forum that
South Africa has ambitions of joining. China is also an influential member of the G20
and the G77+China both of which are important for South Africa.
For the above reasons it is considered that an assessment of the relationship with China
would give a good sense of elements of South Africa’s foreign policy deployment.
Furthermore, with its growing global influence and as the second biggest economy and
currently indisputably being one of the engines fuelling global growth, South Africa has a lot
to benefit from an effective engagement with China.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (2011), China is currently the second largest
global economy after the USA with a nominal GDP of about 5.5 trillion USD and it also has
the largest international reserves at about 2.5 trillion USD. China also boasts a population of
1.3 billion which constitutes a huge domestic market. It continues to show remarkable growth
with GDP growth at about 10% year on year.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP Growth %
Real GDP Growth %
Figure 1.1: China’s Real GDP Growth (%). Source: Leather, G. and Innes-Ker, D. eds. (2010). Country Report China: January 2011. Economist Intelligence Unit. United Kingdom.
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Experts generally agree that this rise of China is not a passing phenomenon but more
reflective of definitive shifts in global power geopolitics.
Although China is the leading global producer of a wide range of minerals, it also requires a
significant amount of natural resources to fuel its growth. In this sense, both South Africa and
the rest of the African continent become strategic sources.
Figure 1.2: China’s Demand for and Production of Natural Resources Source: Van Wyk, B. (2010). “The China Factor: Supplying China’s Phenomenal Demand for Natural Resources” in the China Analyst, August 2010. The Beijing Axis.p.7
Given the huge war chest that China has amassed, it also presents opportunities as a
significant source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The political framework that facilitates
this was consolidated at the 16th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2002 where the
“Go Global Policy” was confirmed giving encouragement to domestic firms to
internationalise.
Of course, from a business perspective, China presents some peculiarities related to the
linkage between State and Business and consequently the influence of political considerations
in business decision making. This introduces complexity in business dealings with China.
1.1.2 The Role of Politics in China The role of politics in China is pervasive. At the centre is the Communist Party of China
(CPC) which guides government activities. Government in turn plays a large role in the
Chinese economy. Consequently, it is vitally important for those engaged in China to
understand the nuances of politics, the political structures and the power dynamics. It is also
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important to understand that China is a country in transition both in political as well as in
economic terms. The Chinese state is thus a transforming state. This transformation impacts
both on the domestic environment as well as on its international engagements.
China has a political non negotiable – the one China policy and is ready to flex its muscle
when this core national interest is undermined. Furthermore, China advocates non
interference in internal affairs of states and takes exception towards those that raise issues
around democracy and human rights in China. China has also been accused by the West of
lowering the bar on governance in countries where it pursues its interests particularly in
Africa.
1.1.3 South Africa’s relations with China
South Africa established formal diplomatic ties with China in 1998. This, after an intense
period of reflection in Pretoria given the then existing diplomatic relations inherited from the
apartheid past and buttressed by significant investments in the South African economy and
cultivated with generous support post 1994 by the Republic of China (Taiwan). This clear
choice of China predicated as it was on the full acceptance of the One China policy was
based on a number of considerations. Among these were:
• Role of China in support of African liberation movements and the consequent
growing relations with the African continent. One could counter pose this to the
support of Taiwan to the apartheid state
• China’s global role in the multilateral system particularly given its permanent seat in
the UN Security Council
• The enormous potential of two way trade following diplomatic recognition which
over time would dwarf any short term benefits deriving from the relationship with
Taiwan.
Since then, there has been an impressive exchange of high level diplomatic visits starting on
the South African side with the visit of President Nelson Mandela to Beijing in May 1999.
There has been growth in both political and economic activities. The cornerstone of the
government to government relationship has been the Bi-national Commission (BNC)
established in April 2000 as part of the Pretoria declaration during the visit of President Jiang
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Zemin. This meets regularly and also provides a forum for consultation on matters of mutual
interest in bilateral and multilateral affairs. This provides a solid platform on which to further
develop the relationship with China.
Politically, these strong relations have manifested, among others, in the elevation of the
bilateral relationship to that of a comprehensive strategic partnership (2010) as well as in
China’s critical role in facilitating the admission of South Africa into the BRIC group of
countries (2010/11). In addition to the interstate relations, there are also historical ties
between the Communist Party of China and the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in
South Africa. These interparty ties seem to have received a major boost in the past few years.
China is politically favourably disposed to South Africa. Furthermore, because of its interest
in the continent, China sees SA as a strategic partner. China respects SA’s position as a
regional power in Africa. It also respects SA as a country with a diversified economy, well
developed infrastructure and governance systems providing for predictability in the rules of
engagement. The positive manner in which SA is generally viewed by the world also works
to its advantage. Even though China is more powerful than SA in every dimension of power,
the relationship is not one sided. All this provides a strong basis for SA to be more assertive
in the manner in which it leverages China.
At an economic level, the growth in bilateral trade has been impressive albeit not without
problems and contradictions. Two of the most debated issues being the decision in 2004 by
South Africa to grant China a market economy status, and the decision to establish an FTA
between South Africa and China that is currently being discussed at NEDLAC. There also
continues to be an increasing number of South African companies investing in China, with
South African breweries (SAB), MIH (a subsidiary of Naspers) and Landpac being amongst
the early successes. South Africa was also the first sub-Saharan country to be granted
approved destination status by the Chinese government.
All these interactions provide a body of concrete experience in dealing with China which can
be used as a strong basis for forging a forward looking engagement strategy that could better
position South Africa.
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The growth in trade is represented below:
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Exports
Imports
Figure 1.3: South African Trade with China (R millions) – 2010 data only Jan-Oct 2010. Source: The dti (2011). “South African Trade by countries: China”, last accessed on 31/01/2011 from http://www.thedti.gov.za/econdb/raportt/RA6483.html Even though the data above shows some progress, there are still major areas of concern that
require attention. These include
• Low levels of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China
• Structure of trade. Export basket from SA dominated by primary commodities
whereas the imports from China largely are value added goods. Also the trade balance
favours China. It has to be recorded though that the extent of this latter point is
subject of contestation between the two countries and there is now an attempt to
harmonise the statistics.
• Low levels of tourists in spite of the approved destination status granted to SA
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1.1.4 Strategic importance of Africa
China – Africa relations are embedded in a long history of interchange. As a result of shared
historical experiences China and Africa have supported each other in the struggle for national
liberation. China regards the large number of countries on the African continent as an
important base of support in the multilateral environment. It therefore actively pursues
relations of mutually beneficial cooperation with each of these countries contingent only to
unequivocal adherence to the One China Policy. For Africa, China provides a basis for strong
dependable support as well as an opportunity to translate its rich natural endowment into
wealth through provision of, for example, infrastructure that is so critical for Africa to be able
to realize its potential.
This relationship between Africa and China has attracted quite a lot of interest from the
developed nations of the North. Particular questions are raised of whether this does not herald
another period of colonial plunder of Africa. Concerns have been raised also about
concerning signs of possible negative impact on governance. All these fears may be justified.
For sure China’s involvement in Africa as in elsewhere and as with all other nations is rooted
firmly on the need for her to advance her interests. Only the most naïve would ascribe all of
China’s actions to altruistic motives. The key challenge is the translation of possibilities into
positive developments and the depth of this will differ from country to country. China, so far,
has proven to be adept at presenting herself as holding the possibility to assist many countries
in the continent. It is the promise of this possibility, reinforced by concrete actions, that has
endeared China to so many in the continent. Many Africans also find it curious that it is
Europe that is warning them of the dangers of colonial plunder by another power! All said
though, even this competition for Africa’s attention is a great opportunity which Africa needs
to grasp.
On 12 January 2006, the White paper on China’s African policy was released. Its general
principles and objectives are:
• Sincerity, friendship and equality
• Mutual benefit, reciprocity and common prosperity
• Mutual support and close coordination
• Learning from each other and seeking common development
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The African continent is of strategic importance to both South Africa and China. It is home to
a number of resources necessary to fuel the Chinese economy. For South Africa, intra Africa
trade though only 12% has a more strategic importance because the export basket from South
Africa has more value added goods and therefore key to the success of the country’s
industrial strategy.
Talk of Africa always includes optimism and pessimism. There is however a growing belief
that Africa has gone through its darkest days and that it now stands poised to present the next
great opportunity in the 21st century. There are a number of positive developments in Africa.
Politically, there is an encouraging trend towards greater democratization. Also the African
Union (AU) has registered a lot of progress in bringing peace to many volatile regions on the
continent. No doubt this continues to be work in progress. Progress continues to be registered
also on the economic side. This has recently been captured in the McKinsey Global Institute
report entitled “lions on the move (2010)”. Among the salient features of these developments
are:
1) The improved macroeconomic stability of African governments
Figure 1.4: Improved Macroeconomic stability of African governments. Source: Roxburgh, C.; Dörr, N. Et. Al. (2010). Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies. The McKinsey Global Institute. June 2010. P.12
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This shows that between the 1990s and the 2000s, African governments reduced collective
inflation, cut their collective foreign debt and reduced their budget deficits. These
macroeconomic reforms which in instances have been supported by microeconomic reforms
have served to stimulate economic growth in Africa.
There is also an increase in international capital flows – from less than 10 billion USD for
most of the 80s to close to 90 billion USD in 2007 – surpassing both Aid and remittances.
What is even more striking is that this foreign capital is moving into more diversified areas
such as construction, textile, tourism etc as opposed to the traditional focus on oil and mining.
2) Increase in capital flows to African countries
Figure 1.5: Increase in capital flows to African countries. Source: Roxburgh, C.; Dörr, N. Et. Al. (2010). Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies. The McKinsey Global Institute. June 2010. P.17.
These investments are also encouraged by the higher rates of return registered in Africa
compared to other developing markets (McKinsey Global Institute, Jun 2010).
This has led to more African households joining the ranks of the world’s consumers. These
are households with discretionary income (calculated as greater than 5000 USD per annum)
with the ability to spend more than 50% of income on things other than food. This further
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helps to stimulate diversification of the consumer market. This attracts investment, creates
jobs and improves welfare.
3) The increase in African households which will have discretionary spending power
Figure 1.6: Share of African households with discretionary spending power. Source: Roxburgh, C.; Dörr, N. Et. Al. (2010). Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies. The McKinsey Global Institute. June 2010. P.22
All these factors point objectively to the real possibility of Africa being the next real
opportunity in terms of investment, trade and the existence of a consumer market of close to a
billion people which is currently under provided.
It is the reality of all these opportunities that makes Africa so central to the calculus of both
South Africa and China. It is also in search of responding to these opportunities that South
Africa seeks to enhance the effectiveness of its strategic leverage of its relationship with
China.
China has sought to grasp these opportunities. It is diversifying its investments beyond
mining and energy. In 2009, its FDI to Africa exceeded USD 1 billion compared with only 50
million in 2001 (China Analyst).
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Overall, China’s trade with Africa has seen an exponential rise.
Figure 1.7: China’s Trade with Africa From: Racanelli, V. J. (2010). “The final Frontier” from Barron’s Cover, Monday 2 August 2010. Last accessed on 14/02/2011 from http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204876804575393250733995816.html
All of this points to an aggressive entry by China into the African continent – a region of
great strategic importance for South Africa. This begs the question of how South Africa
should relate to this challenge. In particular how South Africa should leverage its relationship
with China so as to benefit rather than be trampled by this huge giant. This is a critical
challenge for South Africa’s foreign policy.
It is also worth noting that this aggressive entry by China is currently attended by increase in
its influence. China is actively nurturing the emerging relations through multi-level and
multi-channel exchanges as evidenced by the high number of high level visits by Chinese
leading political leaders and the attention China pays to the Forum On China Africa
Cooperation (FOCAC) – a forum established in 2000 which creates a platform for a periodic
visible expression of this relationship.
The current situation can be reflected in the following rich picture
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BRICS
SA EMBASSY BEIJING
PRC EMBASSY PRETORIA
CINO‐AFRICA
POLIT
ICS
TRADE
SECU
RITY
CO0OPERATION
SOUTH AFRIC
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1.2 Assessment of the current Sino – SA relations
This section assesses the current relations between China and South Africa and seeks to
surface the concern that informs the research question.
As indicated, there is a solid foundation on which the relations between South Africa and
China rest. A case has also been made on why this relationship is vital for South Africa.
There is however a significant gap between what has been achieved and what is possible. It
would seem that the strong historical ties and good political relations have not translated into
sustainable patterns of trade and investment. FDI from China remains low in spite of South
Africa’s well recognized stable and predictable governance environment. South Africa is also
not leveraging the science and technology base as China moves up the value chain.
Furthermore, the structure of trade reflects too much of exports by South Africa of primary
commodities and imports from China of value added goods. This is reflected below:
What we sell to China: Top 10 Exports
What we buy from China: Top 10 Imports
1. Iron ore 2. Ferro-Alloys 3. Chromium ores 4. Manganese ores 5. Platinum 6. Flat-rolled steel 7. Wool (raw) 8. Copper waste and scrap 9. Zirconium and vanadium ores 10. Nickel plates, sheets and foil
1. Cell-phones and phones 2. Computers 3. Printing machines 4. Plastic and rubber boots 5. Televisions and monitors 6. Kettles, microwave ovens and
toasters 7. Dresses and women’s jackets 8. Suitcases and bags 9. Sports shoes 10. Computer and cash register parts and
accessories
Table 1.1: South African trade with China – Top ten products Source: Department of Economic Development (Unpublished Material) It is when we correct all these deficiencies that our relationship would result in sustainable
support to our industrial strategy as reflected in the Industrial Programme Action Plan
(IPAP2) or the recently released New Growth Path (NGP).
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This is the principal concern we should address. It reflects an inability to strategically
leverage historical and political relationship for effective deployment of foreign policy. South
Africa also seems not to be able to leverage the well recognized governance framework that it
has which ensures security and predictability for investment. There may be many reasons for
this. Some have been identified such as lack of capacity as well as the inability of different
South African entities across the public/private divide to coordinate more effectively as they
engage China. There also seems to be a general lack of a nuanced understanding of operating
in China.
1.2.1 The importance of building the requisite capacity South Africa seems to lack the capacity to handle the challenge posed by the engagement
with China. This includes strategic, tactical, technical, organizational and resource capacities.
This is both a systemic problem cutting across the whole of government as well as within
specific sectors. It obtains both in Pretoria as well as in the embassy in Beijing. This is
compounded by inefficient use of the limited resources occasioned by a profound lack of
coordination which is further elaborated upon later in this section. Some key departments
such as trade and tourism have very limited presence in this huge economy. The situation
becomes even more grave when compared with competitor countries. Conversely, there is the
huge capacity that the Chinese have deployed both bilaterally but also in the relevant
multilateral fora. This sets the stage for them to dictate terms in the relationship. This, even
more so, when one considers that in China the public sector has always been more effective
than the private sector.
1.2.2 Importance of coordination
Poor coordination is a major binding constraint. This is virtually in every aspect of
implementation. It applies to policy, strategy, planning and execution. It is a feature within
government among the different spheres, between different departments in each sphere,
within a specific department and also between the public and the private sectors. There is also
suboptimal coordination between the centre and the periphery – the periphery in this case
being the SA Embassy in Beijing. This is not only a major weakness and source of
inefficiency but also a source of great vulnerability especially against a disciplined and
sophisticated partner that China is. The Chinese are brilliant at sniffing out differences and
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weaknesses and playing one against the other. On the other hand the Chinese are organized.
“When China moves, it moves together”. There are many manifestations of this
disjointedness in our actions.
Firstly, In China for any foreign official contact with the government system, there is a single
point of entry. Compare this with the multiple points of entry into our government system
with few instances of structured sharing of information. A similar situation applies with
authorization of foreign visits. Chinese official visits to SA are structured and have a clearly
defined purpose. The same cannot be said in our case. Within our government the
coordination picture is mixed. Though there are pockets of effective coordination, this is
more a function of personalities rather than strong interdepartmental systems.
Secondly, there is occasional misalignment between government and business. These are two
autonomous entities which sometimes pursue different agendas. Compounding this, there are
many areas where suboptimal coordination between these two sectors does not necessarily
have disastrous consequences. Not so with China where government involvement in the
economy is so pervasive. In SA we need to deal with the mutual suspicions between
government and business. To an extent this has a basis in our history and the reality that a
common SA national identity is work in progress. Increasingly, this calls for urgent attention
and bold leadership. Working together would avail resources and knowledge which can
contribute to the mapping of a richer picture of the opportunities available to us to seize.
Thirdly, China has coherent policy tools whilst ours until recently were scattered. Together
with the existence of strong institutions such as the State Economic Planning department,
their capacity for long range planning is legendary. This allows them to make informed
strategic tradeoffs. It is hoped that the newly established National Planning Commission
(NPC) will orientate us in that direction.
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1.2.3 Force Field Analysis
Failure to address these shortcomings will over time lead to less and less effective strategic
deployment of our foreign policy. This is captured in the Force Field representation below.
Lack of Capacity
Poor Coordinati
on
Sub-optimal exploitation of
economic opportunities
Figure 1.9: Force Field Analysis
Strategic Deployment of Foreign
Policy
Historical Relations
Predictable Governance Environment
Political Ties
Time
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1.2.4 Dynamics of the variables related to the key concern The dynamics of the variables related to the key concern are reflected in the following
diagram:
EXTENT OF POLITICAL RELATIONS
STRENGTH OF HISTORICAL TIES
EXTENT OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS
EFFECTIVENESS OF STRATEGIC
DEPLOYMENT OF FOREIGN POLICY
S
S
S
S
S
Figure 1.10: Dynamics of the variables related to the key concern
Building on the strong historical ties and solid political relations, there is good scope for
South Africa to nuance its understanding of China and understand available opportunities.
This helps identify actions to be undertaken and stakeholders to be mobilised. This has the
net effect of improving the ability to impact positively on the effectiveness of the strategic
deployment of our foreign policy. The chances to improve economic relations are enhanced.
This helps further strengthen and deepen the ties between the two countries.
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1.3 Research Question
This section formulates a research question which if appropriately answered will deal with
the concern related to the effectiveness of our current deployment of foreign policy in China.
It is this question that informs the research that seeks to provide an answer to the concern or
problem identified.
1.3.1 Research Question Formulation
From the discussion and data presented above, it is clear that South Africa already has an
established relationship with China. It also has been argued that China’s position and place
globally is on the rise and that attending this rise is growth in influence in areas of strategic
importance to South Africa. A number of questions arise from this situation. These questions
reflect concerns expressed in previous encounters with different stakeholders in the course of
my work. These are:
• What are the strengths and weaknesses of the current relationship with China?
• Is South Africa optimally leveraging its relationship with China?
• “What should be done differently?” and “how” so as to enhance benefits from the
relationship?
It is deemed that the most appropriate question is “What should SA do to optimize the
strategic deployment of its foreign policy in China?”
To ensure that the question is correct, and if answered will address the concern, it was
interrogated against the framework for the formulation of powerful questions as elaborated by
Vogt, Brown and Isaacs (2003). Essentially this is a three dimensional model which defines a
powerful question based on Construction, Assumptions and Scope.
With respect to Construction, the question begins with an interrogative “What”. It channels
inquiry; it is broad, enduring and promises insight (Vogt et al 2003). The important
Assumption is that possibilities/ actions exist to optimize strategic deployment of foreign
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policy. With regards to Scope, the question is within the capacity for effective action by those
active in the strategic deployment of foreign policy.
In conclusion, this question is powerful and when answered would provide specific actions
which if carried out would address the concern.
1.3.2 Justification for the research
Foreign policy essentially is about the projection of the domestic agenda in the international
sphere. It thus derives fundamentally from a country’s domestic agenda. A central element of
South Africa’s domestic agenda is to grow the economy so as to help address a myriad of
problems such as unemployment, poverty and underdevelopment. There are a number of
frameworks that aim to achieve this through the involvement of many stakeholders such as
government, business, labour and academia. But with globalization, national boundaries no
longer define the scope of activity. There is an increasing need to constantly interact with the
rest of the world. Foreign policy is an important tool to harness and coordinate this effort.
Effective strategic deployment of this tool enhances strategic leveraging of international
opportunities in support of domestic imperatives.
This research seeks to enhance the effectiveness of the strategic deployment of foreign policy
in China – a country that holds enormous opportunities for SA. This is on account of China’s
rise and its growing economic power and global influence. Furthermore, interaction with
China covers many of the areas relevant to the pursuit of our domestic agenda and defined as
priorities for SA’s foreign policy. This reflects both the breadth as well as the depth of the
opportunities. Some of the lessons learnt in this study also have wider application and would
be useful in dealings with other countries.
The research is thus justified both with respect to the topic being explored as well as the
selection of the country being studied.
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1.4 Overview of the Methodology
Whilst the details of the research methodology used are elaborated in Chapter 3, the purpose
of this section is to give a brief overview of that methodology. The underlying perspective
informing this research is Critical Realism. A qualitative research approach is employed
using the Grounded Theory Methodology. Throughout this process, systems’ thinking is
employed.
A critical realist perspective is anchored on the belief that knowledge is a product of both our
senses and the use of reason. Its key feature is the recognition that what we experience in the
Empirical world is explained through independent underlying causal or generative
mechanisms which may be unobservable and operate in the Real world and manifest through
events and processes in the Actual world. Our interpretation of what we observe empirically
is itself influenced by our ladder of abstraction which is impacted upon by our life
experiences and value systems. A critical realist perspective would not be satisfied with
restricting its analysis to the observable empirical factors but would be in constant search of
the underlying generative mechanisms. In attempting to respond to our principal concern
reflected through our research question, a critical realist approach would enable the
researcher to probe deeper in an attempt to understand the observed phenomena. These
observed phenomena may be pointing either to failure or success in our foreign policy
endeavours. By following a critical realist perspective in the investigation and by
understanding the actual drivers of these phenomena, the ability of the researcher to provide
more enduring answers to the question gets enhanced. In the context of this research, the
methodology used is the Grounded Theory methodology (GTM).
GTM is a qualitative research approach that allows the theory to emerge from the data
through an inductive process. A key feature is the use of an emergent design described by
Creswell (2005) as a process whereby “the researcher collects the data, analyses it
immediately rather than waiting until all data is collected, and then bases the decision on
what data to collect next on this analysis”. In the context of this research, data was collected
through one on one conversational interview, either face to face or telephonically.
Participants were chosen because they were either drivers of the foreign policy
implementation or were affected by it. Interviewees were from the government, business as
well as the academic/research sectors. All those interviewed were operating at a senior
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strategic level in their organizations providing for the infusion of strategic content to the
interview. In certain instances follow up interviews were conducted and in cases written
elaboration of some facts was submitted.
For purposes of this research the systems thinking methodology is the SSM. This seeks to
improve system effectiveness, in this case the effectiveness of the strategic deployment of
foreign policy, by exploring the purpose and ensuring agreement on this by the different
stakeholders. It also seeks to promote mutual understanding, ensure accommodation and gain
commitment to the purpose. The variety of stakeholders involved in pursuing foreign policy
objectives opens up the possibility of misalignment in the purposes being pursued. This is
further complicated by the fact that these stakeholders are autonomous, for example business
from government, and will thus align to any purpose to the extent that it relates to the
interests they are pursuing.
1.5 Delimitations of Scope and key Assumptions
Delimitations refer to the planned, justified scope of the study beyond which generalization
of the results is not intended.
This study assesses interactions between states across a variety of areas. Such interaction has
some features that will be characteristic of interaction with any other state albeit not all the
features and areas to the same extent all the time. Necessarily, therefore, there will be
findings of the study that have wider application and can be generalized beyond the study. As
was indicated in section 1.1.1 one of the benefits of the selection of China as a case study is
that the relationship covers the whole spectrum of South Africa’s international relations
priorities.
However, the study is being carried out at a specific point in time and in a specific country –
China, which has its own history and currently undergoing extensive and sweeping reforms.
It has the biggest population on earth as well as one of the oldest civilizations. Some of the
findings therefore cannot be generalized to other relationships with other states.
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The study was also based on conversational interviews. This was a semi-structured interview
tending towards the unstructured end of the continuum. This requires skill which it is
believed the researcher possesses. The researcher conducted the interviews personally.
Furthermore, with the exception of one interviewee, all interviews were face to face allowing
for also observation of non verbal signals during the interview. The presence of an assistant
also helped with the validation of the notes taken during the interview. Each interviewee was
asked to indicate if they wished to allow the assistant to sit in the interview. All, except one,
consented to the participation. The semi-structured form of interview was also appropriate
both given the qualitative nature of the research as well as the seniority and experience of
those interviewed.
An attempt was made to get both government and private sector interviewees to give a more
balanced and comprehensive sense of strengths/weaknesses/opportunities and threats.
Interviews were also conducted with both the drivers of current deployment of foreign policy
as well as those affected by it. There were both differences as well as convergence of ideas on
issues. This had the effect of overall strengthening the validity of the findings. Moreover,
most of those identified for the study participated.
1.6 Conclusion
This chapter has described the current situation. The current relationship between South
Africa and China and its strategic importance for South Africa is described. It has also
located this relationship in the context of the importance of Africa to both China and South
Africa as well as the rise of China’s global influence. The need for South Africa to leverage
this relationship through effective deployment of foreign policy has been established. The
selection of China as the focus of this study has been explained. The complexities of dealing
with China particularly the pervasive influence of politics on business decision making have
been highlighted.
In spite of progress registered in these relations, there is a sense that more could be achieved.
It is the recognition of this gap between actual and potential that is the main concern. This is
evident largely in the economic sphere (trade, FDI and tourism). There has been failure to
fully leverage the good political relations and the good historical ties through more effective
strategic deployment of foreign policy.
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The question that then arises is what to do to enhance the effectiveness of the strategic
deployment of foreign policy so as to enhance leverage of this relationship. This research
aims at throwing insights that would help provide an answer to this question. This research is
anchored on a systems thinking approach. It employs Critical Realism as the perspective and
GTM as the qualitative research methodology using a semi-structured conversational
interview process.
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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction Chapter one identified the research problem and question. This chapter reviews the relevant
literature so as to locate the research within the wider body of knowledge of which it is part.
This literature review is based on extensive review of textbooks in the area of international
relations and foreign policy, review articles published in journals and international
conference papers. This review summarises this rich body of knowledge.
The traditional view of the area of international relations is largely about interstate relations.
This has also tended to posit the state as a unitary rational actor. This reflects the current
division of the world into states with the modern idea of the state having developed in Europe
between the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries. These states interact either bilaterally,
sometimes as groups or even together. Each state sees these interactions as important in
advancing its interests.
In order to assess the strategic deployment of foreign policy, the core concern of this paper,
this review will explore a number of topics which constitute the basis for an understanding of
our system of international relations. These are: understanding the context of international
relations as a parent discipline of this study; foreign policy deployment as a tool to advance
national interest and assessing success or effectiveness in foreign policy deployment. This
chapter also reviews the role of culture both as a key category in the results but also as a key
consideration in international relations and foreign policy deployment as a result of the
recognition of the role of human decision makers. Finally, this paper takes a brief look at
coordination as an important variable in the results.
2.2 Understanding the context of international relations
The global political and economic context defines the parameters of the practice of
international relations and interstate relations. The end of the Cold War and the rise of new
and emerging powers have led to various attempts to characterise the current global system.
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The bipolar competition between the Capitalist and Socialist ideologies saw the emergence of
the Capitalist paradigm rising as the dominant global system. This circumscribes the nature of
international exchanges more so with the collapse of the Berlin wall. Within international
relations, trans-border engagements are evolving towards competing interests within a
Capitalist framework. Socialist or left-leaning societies have been increasingly compelled to
engage in rules of trade, as well as attendant norms and values that are enshrined in the
Capitalist paradigm.
Within this capitalist system, there is contestation. On the one hand are proponents in the
economic sphere of the Washington consensus with its advocacy for unfettered markets,
greater deregulation, promotion of free trade and a decreased role of the state. On the other
hand are those who, whilst recognising the role of the markets, point to consequences of
market failure and thus call for recognition of the important role of the state in bridging the
inequalities that free markets tend to exacerbate. But all these are fundamentally variants of
the dominant capitalist system. The relations between South Africa and China have to
develop within this system.
Foreign policy is deployed within the context of this reality. Countries that attempt to operate
outside this reality will find it hard to attract investment and technology and over time
struggle to exploit the advances in science and technology to grow their economies and
advance the welfare of citizens.
China, with all its peculiarities, is transforming in the direction of accommodation and
existence within this broader framework. This is most evident in its recent accession to the
World Trade Organisation (WTO) and its membership of the G20. As it proceeds with this
accommodation, it has to reconcile this with its socialist political superstructure.
South Africa too is a market economy. In striving to become a Developmental State, South
Africa is on the other hand attempting to bridge the ideological assumptions of the Liberal-
Capitalist paradigm and the Transformational-Critical paradigm.
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2.2.1 Theoretical Approaches in International Relations
The concept of international relations would thus involve the interactions between state actors
within the global inter-state system. Within the study of International Relations, there are
several schools of thought through which inter-state activities can be analysed. Three of the
most widely utilised theories of International Relations are the Realist Paradigm, the Idealist
Paradigm, and the Critical Paradigm.
The theoretical underpinnings and key assumptions that inform these three models can
therefore be understood as separate worldviews in the investigation of the same historical and
international relations events. As worldviews, they therefore shape different philosophical
and analytical frameworks that translate into particular ideologies in the practice of
international relations.
None of these theories can claim to offer a picture of the world that is complete. No theory
has exclusive claim to the truth. They offer insights into the behaviour of states. They provide
a theoretical framework to plough through the maze of complexities in international relations.
For purposes of this dissertation they also help give context to the considerations that are
highlighted in this assessment of the strategic effectiveness of our engagement with China.
Realist School
Without expanding on the details, it can be noted for the present purpose that the Realist
Paradigm considers the state to be the central actor in International Relations, and that the
exercise of power rather than normative values characterises the international system.
Hans Morgenthau describes the realist view as follows “the main signpost that helps political
realism find its way through the landscape of international politics is the concept of interest
defined in terms of power… We assume that statesmen think and act in terms of interest
defined as power and the evidence of history bears that out”. According to realists, power is
what gives a state a place or position in the international system and that shapes the state’s
behaviour. Although traditional realists recognize different elements of a state’s power (for
example economic resources and technology) military power is considered the most obvious
element of a state’s power.
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The Realist paradigm is most closely associated with political conservatism and state actions
that focus on narrow national interests and the right of the powerful to dominate the inter-
state system.
The Idealist School
In contrast to the Realist Paradigm, the Idealist model recognises a plurality of State and non-
state actors and espouses universal norms, rules and processes that would guide in
international relations. It seeks a rules-based international system between sovereign equals
and, in its pursuit of internationally accepted norms and standards, is most closely associated
with a liberal political agenda.
There are four cardinal components of liberalism. They are juridical equality, democracy,
liberty and free market. David Baldwin (1993) further elaborates on four varieties of
liberalism that influence contemporary international relations. They are:
• Commercial liberalism which essentially advocates for free trade and a market or
capitalist economy.
• Republican liberalism which speaks to democracy on the basis that democratic states
are more likely to respect the rights of their citizens and less likely to go to war with
their democratic neighbours.
• Sociological liberalism which speaks more to community and interdependence
• Liberal institutionalism which refers to the tendency towards integration. In this case
states surrender some of their sovereignty to create integrated communities to
promote economic growth and respond to regional problems.
Commercial and Republican liberalism provide the foundation for current neoliberal thinking
in Western governments. These promote democracy and free trade in their foreign policy.
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Critical School
What both Realists and Idealists have in common is that they perceive the interactions that
they study from an empirical and factual basis. This ‘scientific’ approach allows both models
to compete from a common perspective that is rejected by the third Critical Paradigm, namely
critical analysis.
Critical analysis argues that historical ‘facts’ do not occur in a vacuum and places emphasis
on the context and elements that create those ‘facts’. Within International Relations, critical
analysis would therefore focus on the role of the actors (middle class, multinational
corporations, etc) and the social constructs that form the national or international system
(core-periphery).
2.2.2 The importance of non state actors and supranational structures
These paradigms of international relations have to adapt to the challenge to the dominance of
sovereign states by other national and transnational actors. This has become more evident
with the intensification of the phenomenon of globalization with its extension of the
boundaries of social transactions beyond national borders. This process of globalization is not
a single homogenous process but a number of related processes encompassing economic,
social, political and cultural aspects.
Scholars of International Relations, through the above-mentioned three key theories continue
to grapple, among other things, with identifying the key features and trends associated with
the current and future global system. Realists and Idealists may both consider globalisation as
a positive evolution of the Capitalist (western) democratic model across the globe but
Realists would continue to advocate a state-centric and competitive national interest model of
globalisation that is opposed to an Idealist liberal model that sees the erosion of the state in
the face of the power and influence of other actors such as Multinational Corporations
(MNCs) and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs). Critical Theory on the other hand does not
dispute the reality or desirability of greater communications connectivity and other such
aspects of globalisation but points to the growing disparities between the rich and poor
(individuals and countries).
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Baumann and Stengel (2010), in addition to the cross border transaction debate, highlight the
importance of the denationalization aspect of globalization. They see this denationalization as
encompassing:
• Internationalization which refers to the transfer of authority to some international
authority such as the United Nations or supranational structure such as the European
Union or the African Union.
• Privatization which refers to the transfer of authority to private actors whose
authority is limited to the territory of a single nation state and
• Trans-nationalisation which refers to the transfer of authority to private entities that
exert authority across borders.
One can also distinguish three positions in the denationalization debate based on assessment
of impact on the nation state (Sorenson, 2004).
1. The first group of scholars argues for the “retreat of the state”. They claim that state
power is in decline with a shift to non state actors.
2. The second group “state centrists” argue that globalization has been overstated and
that the “world remains fragmented among independent, self – interested states”
3. The third group are the state transformationists. They argue that the situation is much
more complex than presented by the above two groups. They see a transformation of
the state which also cedes some functions to non state actors. But that this transfer of
authority is neither linear nor unidirectional.
What is clear is that world politics is no longer an exclusive arena for states as it has been for
the first 300 years of the Westphalian states system. Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1972)
amongst others in the Pluralist school of thought have also pointed to the importance of other
actors such as interest groups, transnational corporations (TNCs) and international
nongovernmental organizations (INGOs).
Even within states, state centrism has been made more complex as various arms of the state
and sub - national units have a rapidly increasing international dimension to their work.
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2.2.3 Importance of Coordination
This heterogeneity calls for greater coordination in pursuit of common or complementary
goals. In an OECD paper on multilevel Regulatory governance, Rodrigo et al (2009) point to
the importance of coordination for the attainment of goals. Also, in a policy framework for
investment, the OECD (2010) points out that a degree of coordination is needed to ensure
coherence and compatibility of policy objectives. It also argues that “one of the most
powerful mechanisms for coordination is communication both between the State and the
Private sector and among government institutions”.
Habegger (2002) argues that interdependence, globalization and the shift of decision making
away from the nation state onto the international level has only served to intensify the
engagement of sub-national units in foreign policy. He also points out that coordination
procedures between the different levels of governance are indispensable and have been put in
practice with some measure of success in countries such as Germany, Belgium and
Switzerland.
2.2.4 Diversity and the role of culture
One of the consequences of this diversity in the players is that the theatre of international
relations becomes more complex. Hudson (2005) argues that with this complexity the role of
human decision makers comes to the fore. As a result, other types of theory that have not
been developed in international relations such as how cultural factors and social constructions
within a culture affect state behaviour gain in importance.
The world is characterized by a constant interaction between peoples and nations who feel
and act differently but are exposed to common problems that demand cooperation for their
solution. In this interface of cultures there is not only synergy but also conflict. For those
engaged in Diplomacy and Business, awareness and knowledge of culture as well as skill are
vital. In Business, for example, as tariff and technology advantage progressively wear off, in
addition to economic factors, competition is shifting towards cultural factors both advantages
and disadvantages. Cross-cultural business negotiation is an unavoidable part of international
business today. Individuals working in key roles between Headquarters and a foreign
subsidiary need to build a double trust relationship between their home culture and the host
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culture. Similarly, for development cooperation you need two way flows for success.
Technical know-how needs to flow from the expatriate to locals whereas cultural know-how
needs to flow from locals to expatriates. It is this phenomenon that is next explored in this
literature review.
This exploration is also necessitated by the fact that one of the key categories that emerges
from the data as relevant to achieving our foreign policy objectives in China is Culture. This
featured particularly in the interviews with Business. A detailed literature search on Culture
as well as Culture and Diplomacy was conducted. For a conceptual perspective on Culture,
extensive use was made of “Culture’s Consequences” (Geert Hofstede, 2001) as well as
“Culture and Organisations – Software of the Mind” ( Geert Hofstede and Gert Jan Hofstede,
2005).
Hofstede defines Culture as “the collective programming of the mind distinguishing the
members of one group or category of people from another”. These mental programmes are
patterns of thinking, feeling and potential acting which have been learnt through time.
Flowing from this definition is a number of key observations.
First, culture is collective rather than individual – a fact that fundamentally distinguishes
culture from personality. Second, as programming of the mind, it is inside us and therefore
makes judgment from outside difficult. This point is further made by Claude Levi Strauss
(1988 translated by Geert Hofstede) in his theory of Cultural Relativism which affirms that
“one culture has no absolute criteria for judging the activities of another culture….however
every culture can and should apply such judgement to its own activities because its members
are actors as well as observers”. Third, the programming distinguishes members of one
group or category of people from another. As each individual belongs simultaneously to a
number of groups or categories such as nationality, gender, professional affiliation etc, it
follows that we each carry several layers of programming. The relationship between the
mental programmes we carry from these various groups is not always harmonious thereby
confounding the manner we act.
Culture has many manifestations. At the core of culture are values. A strong imprint of these
is laid in the formative years of a child and largely reflects socialization at the level of family
and school. Values are very resilient and get transmitted through generations and in certain
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instances such as in the Chinese Culture through thousands of years. These values are
augmented by practices which incorporate symbols, heroes and rituals. Practices are far much
more adaptable and tend to reflect more the influence of other cultural experiences.
Hofstede outlines five dimensions of culture that are measurable and therefore form a basis of
comparison. These dimensions have been used to get a deeper understanding particularly of
how different nationalities act or relate to specific circumstances. Four of these dimensions
came out of his work on the staff of IBM covering about 70 countries.
Interestingly, the fifth dimension originates from a regional study in the Asia Pacific region
conducted by Michael Harris Bond from the Chinese university of Hong Kong in what
became known as the Chinese Value Survey (CVS). The significance of this latter point will
be referred to later when we deal with the cultural aspects of China.
The five dimensions outlined by Hofstede are:
• Inequality as measured by the Power Distance
• Tolerance of the unfamiliar expressed as Uncertainty avoidance
• Relation with in-group as expressed in Individualism vs. Collectivism
• Emotional gender roles expressed as Masculinity vs. Femininity
• Need gratification expressed as Long vs. Short Term orientation
Through the application of these dimensions Hofstede has drawn the following “maps” of the
world. These are captured in “Intercultural Communication and Diplomacy” (Diplo
Foundation, 2004).
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SMALL PD, WEAK UA NORDIC COUNTRIES ANGLO COUNTRIES, USA NETHERLANDS
LARGE PD, WEAK UA
CHINAINDIA
GERMAN SPEAKING COUNTRIES HUNGARY ISRAEL SMALL PD, STRONG UA
LATIN COUNTRIESMALTA, MUSLIM COUNTRIES
JAPAN, KOREAEASTERN EUROPE
LARGE PD, STRONG UA
Table 2.1 Power Distance and Uncertainty Avoidance COLLECTIVIST, FEMININE THAILAND, KOREA COSTA RICA, CHILE RUSSIA, BULGARIA PORTUGAL, SPAIN
COLLECTIVIST, MASCULINE
CHINA, JAPANMEXICO, VENEZUELA
ARAB WORLDGREECE
MALTA FRANCE NETHERLANDS NORDIC COUNTRIES INDIVIDUALIST, FEMININE
CZECHOSLOVAKIA, HUNGARY
POLAND, ITALYGERMAN SPEAKING COUNTRIES
ANGLO COUNTRIES, USA
INDIVIDUALIST, MASCULINE
Table 2.2: Individualism and Masculinity From the above maps the Chinese are characterized by Large Power Distance, Weak
Uncertainty Avoidance, Collectivist, Masculinity and have a long Term orientation. Chinese
consequently are hierarchical and place emphasis on rank; emphasise group goals and needs
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and are more willing to sacrifice personal interests for the attainment of collective interests;
can live with and tolerate high levels of ambiguity as well as take a long term view of things.
Figure3 : Long-term versus Short-term Orientation
LONG TERM ORIENTATION CHINA JAPAN KOREA BRAZIL INDIA NETHERLANDS NORDIC COUNTRIES FRANCE GERMANY USA BRITAIN AFRICAN COUNTRIES MUSLIM COUNTRIES SHORT TERM ORIENTATION
Table 2.3: Long Term Orientation Vs. Short Term Orientation Yunxia Zhu and Sun Zhu (2004) elaborate on some important considerations when
encountering Chinese in cross cultural business negotiations.
In addition to the general observation that Chinese have a tough negotiating style, Zhu and
Zhu highlight the importance of three traits regarded as key factors governing the behaviour
of Chinese negotiators. These are Confucianism, Guanxi and Face.
Confucianism stresses the responsibilities of individuals towards one another within five
important human relationships. It advocates for a social order that values duty, loyalty,
honour, respect for age and seniority and sincerity. It is more concerned with “righteousness
and human heartedness than profit” and tends to focus on trust rather than law. It places
importance in knowing others rather than being known.
Guanxi is about establishing relationship. It is related to Confucianism but is not a uniquely
Chinese trait.
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Face connotes high status and prestige in the eyes of one’s peers. It is critical during
negotiations not only to protect face but to give face to Chinese interlocutors. Chinese are
extremely uncomfortable with losing face.
The Chinese have the oldest empire in living memory. Although it has not always been
unified, the Chinese Empire possesses a continuous history of about four thousand years. The
Chinese operate in a rich cultural context which if not appreciated can present significant
barriers to successful negotiations.
Yunxia Zhu and Sun Zhu (2004) make the following recommendations for both business and
diplomacy:
1. Make an effort to learn Chinese culture and customs
2. Be patient during the non-task sounding process. Chinese need time to build trust and
create guanxi before moving ahead with negotiations.
3. Make sure trust has been built as the Chinese will provide adequate and useful
information only to people they trust.
4. Entry to the concessions and agreement process is not a sign of a successful
negotiation. Good guanxi with Chinese negotiators and respecting their cultural traits
is the basis for moving forward with this process.
2.3 Foreign policy deployment as a tool to advance national interest
The foreign policy mechanism including oversight assumes different forms in different
countries and in the same country in different epochs. Unavoidably, there are many different
departments, organisations and agencies involved in foreign policy actions and these need to
be coordinated.
In examining the workings of foreign policy, at least three interrelated dimensions can be
discerned. These are structure of organisation, nature of decision making process and ways in
which policy is implemented.
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In most countries, foreign ministries are the institutions involved in coordinating day to day
foreign relations. They are charged with the task of coordinating the advancement of the
national interest in the international arena through bilateral and multilateral engagements.
2.3.1 Foreign Policy implementation
Some foreign policy is initiated at home and yet many foreign policy positions are reactions
to events beyond borders. Foreign policy implementation faces the challenge of relating to
the variety of relationships borne of the variety of dimensions of a state as well as the choice
of instruments to use. The main foreign policy instruments fall into four categories (Smith et
al, 2008). These are political, military, economic and cultural/ideological. These tend to be
compartmentalised and where discussion occurs about the utility of any, it is usually not
compared to alternatives. It is always critical to make a clear determination of what
instrument is appropriate for each specific goal or target as well as the cost of each option
relative to the use of other instruments. With greater democratic participation in domestic
politics, there are increasing pressures for more democracy in foreign policy. There are
however varying expectations of what a successful foreign policy entails.
2.3.2 What citizens expect from foreign policy
Christopher Hill (2003) identifies seven expectations the citizenry tends to have of foreign
policy. In the first instance they apply to states but can mutatis mutandis be adapted to non
state actors. They vary over time and place and in the details of their manifestation. These
are:
1. Protecting citizens abroad
2. Projecting identity abroad
3. Homeostasis or the maintenance of territorial integrity and social peace against
external threats
4. Advancing prosperity
5. Making decisions on interventions abroad. This may involve multilateral actions
legitimized by international law
6. Negotiating a stable international order and work for a secure global order
7. Protecting the global commons such as the environment.
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The goals of foreign policy in a specific context need to be clear, understanding that no state
can realize fully all its goals all the time. Some goals are irreducible where no compromise is
possible. These relate largely to issues of security and survival. On the other hand there are
some goals that call for compromise and adjustment. These are goals that are desirable but
not indispensable. They are about consolidation and expansion of power.
Foreign policy must be evaluated in terms of success or failure to attain the goals being
pursued.
2.4 Assessing success or effectiveness in foreign policy deployment
According to Baldwin (2000) ‘the literature on foreign policy evaluation is characterized by
analytic and conceptual anarchy’. Foreign policy is usually viewed as purposive behaviour
thus making the concept of success very slippery. This is because to the extent that human
behaviour is purposeful, everyone can be said to pursue success which in turn is defined in
terms of favourable or desired outcomes.
Furthermore, as Cohen and Scott (1975) have observed ‘the concentration on policy process
and neglect of policy output is one of the major deficiencies in the study of foreign policy’.
Regrettably, the situation has not changed much since this observation and there still is a
conspicuous absence of clearly spelt out outputs and outcomes of such processes. Yet it is
important that foreign policy be evaluated. This is necessitated by the reality of resource
scarcity and calls for greater public accountability. When assessing success, it is important to
look at both costs and benefits otherwise it may be easy to claim “pyrrhic victories”.
Foreign policy implementation is also characterized by strategic interaction. The targets are
not passive objects and also influence the outcome of the interaction. In foreign policy, as in
business, success is multidimensional. It has to factor in such considerations as: the effect on
allies; the trade-offs among national interests and the effect on adversaries. Business has
however the advantage of using a common denominator of money which can be used to
calculate the bottom line. In foreign policy we do not have such credible standards of value
and have to resort to rough judgements. There are some dimensions of success which even
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though they are not definitive do assist. One such dimension which is relevant to this paper is
effectiveness.
Evaluating effectiveness in accomplishing goals is a necessary but not sufficient ingredient to
measure success. Estimating effectiveness is also complicated by the following factors:
• Foreign policy usually pursues multiple goals with respect to multiple targets. These
goals are not necessarily equally important.
• We are not interested only in observable policy changes but also changes in beliefs,
attitudes, opinions, expectations, and predispositions.
• Goal attainment is a matter of degree.
Macridis (1992) suggests a frame of analysis that involves assessment of the goals; analysis
of the predicaments that seem to endanger those goals: assessment of the instrumentalities
pursued to alleviate the predicaments; examine the way policies are formulated; availability
of alternative means; assess whether policy as formulated and implemented brings about the
desired goal.
2.5 Conclusion
The field of international relations and foreign policy is complex. It requires understanding
not only of the main theories of international relations but also of the global political and
economic context in which interstate activity takes place. In the contemporary period, this is
characterised by the dominance of the capitalist political and economic system. This broadly
defines the parameters for interstate activities even though there may be contestation within
this system.
There is a definitive shift from a state centric view of foreign policy to a growing recognition
of the growing and important role of non state actors. This calls for greater coordination to
synergise national effort and to successfully advance national interest. The coordination is
itself complicated by sometimes differing interests being pursued by the stakeholders with
each group positing its sectoral interest as national interest. At the same time, there is a
growing role for international and supranational structures.
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There is also greater recognition of the agency of human decision makers. This has led to the
importance of the theories traditionally associated with behavioural sciences. Amongst these
is the role of culture and social constructs within cultures in informing human interaction.
Foreign policy evaluation is complex. First, success is multidimensional. Second, because
implementation is characterized by strategic interaction, success also depends on the actions
of others. However, there is a common acceptance of the need to move beyond the current
dominant preoccupation with process but rather to set clear goals even though these at times
may be multiple. This has to be followed by a careful analysis of the options and
interventions necessary to achieve those goals. At the same time there is a need to identify the
obstacles/predicaments as well as ways to overcome these.
For reasons of resource scarcity and calls for greater public accountability, there are
increasing calls for foreign policy evaluation to be carried out. There is also need for less
compartmentalisation of the different forms of statecraft (political, military, economic and
cultural/ideological) and for robust comparisons of the utility of different alternatives in any
given situation. This is a poorly developed field and in need of urgent attention.
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CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction This study is undertaken so as to improve the strategic deployment of foreign policy by South
Africa largely through its department of International Relations and Co – operation (DIRCO).
Foreign policy is an important tool in advancing a country’s national interest. South Africa
engages in Foreign policy activities bilaterally with many countries as well as within the
multilateral system of global governance. Although significant progress has been made since
the advent of democracy 16 years ago, the deployment of foreign policy displays some
limitations which lead to failure to leverage available opportunities optimally. The key
concern is about improving the effectiveness of the strategic deployment of Foreign policy so
as to enhance benefits for the country. The question this research seeks to answer therefore is
what SA should do so as to improve the strategic deployment of foreign policy (see attached
research design framework – Appendix A). In order to gain a deeper understanding of the
dynamics of foreign policy deployment, this research focuses on a specific country – the
Peoples Republic of China (China). The basis for the selection of China is elaborated in
Chapter 1 of this study. Suffice to say that engagement with China straddles many aspects of
foreign policy and presents many opportunities for SA. Therefore aspects of the results of the
study would have a wider and more pertinent relevance.
This chapter begins by clarifying the philosophical foundations of this research. In this regard
the Critical realist perspective is elaborated upon. This is followed by a detailed description
of the data collection process. Included in this section is reference to both ethical and validity
concerns and how these are addressed. Next follows an exposition of the research
methodology used, namely, Grounded Theory. This chapter concludes by elaborating on a
systems methodology to effect changes to the system so to enhance effectiveness of strategic
deployment of foreign policy.
3.2 Philosophical foundation
Any research endeavour needs to be explicit about its philosophical foundations as well as the
research framework to be used.
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ANTIFOUNDATIONALIST
WORLD VIEW
Figure 3.1: Systemic Management Research Framework Source: Created for this study
ONTOLOGY = REALISM
EPISTEMOLOGY = GROUNDED THEORY
RESEARCH PARADIGM
QUALITATIVE
SYSTEMS PARADIGM
CREATIVE HOLIMS EXPLORING PURPOSE
SSM
• Values data from perspective of participant. • Formulates desirable and feasible actions to
SYSTEMS METHODOLOGY
improve system performance
GROUNDED THEORY – this develops theory from data interpretation by the researcher
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Purposeful Sampling
• Semi‐structured conversational interview
• Participant observation • Literature search
Data collectionRESEARCH METHODS
• Constant comparison • Theoretical sampling • Saturation
Data analysis following a GT process
• Theorizing
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3.2.1 Ontological and Epistemological basis of this research The basis of this research is essentially anti-foundationalist. This school of thought sees
social phenomena as socially constructed and as such must be positioned in time, space and
culture. This is consistent with the systems approach which sees real properties as reflective
of where the system boundary is drawn. This points to the importance of the types of
perspectives brought to bear in the definition of the properties of any phenomenon.
Practically this underlines the attention to be paid in the identification of data sources for
research. This approach differs from the essentialist / foundationalist school which argues
that social phenomena have fundamental and enduring differences that exist in all contexts
and across time.
Philosophers have grappled with the nature of reality – “what exists?”. This has led to the
“ontology of being” – “the idea that absolute reality whether experienced or transcendental is
assumed to be relatively stable, discrete and unchanging” (Partington D, 2002) versus the
ontology of becoming which reflects a state of flux where things are “but momentary
outcomes”.
There are two dominant approaches to addressing the question “how do I know?”. These are
Empiricism and Rationalism. Empiricism suggests that knowledge is derived through
sensation and in a sense a photocopy of what exists outside consciousness. Rationalists, on
the other hand, posit that reality does not exist independently of consciousness. From these
two building blocks, a number of other perspectives have developed. These include Realists,
Positivists etc.
Realists propose a dualism characterised by a recognition of the independent existence of
objects/phenomena but also that knowledge is advanced through theory building in which
new discoveries of the nature of reality are added to what is already known. Thus for Realists,
knowledge is a product of both our senses and the use of reason. It is this Realist perspective
that underpins the Critical Realism which informs the approach in this research.
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3.2.2 Critical Realism
Real – mechanisms that have generated the actual
events
Actual – actual events which have been generated by mechanisms
Empirical – observable expectations
Figure 3.2: Critical Realism Our understanding of Critical Realism owes to the work of Bhaskar (1978, 1979). A Critical
Realist perspective acknowledges the existence of three domains – Real, Actual and
Empirical. According to this approach, the domain of the empirical world relates to what our
senses perceive having been influenced by our ladder of abstraction. But a key feature of
critical realism is the recognition that what we experience in the empirical world is explained
through independent underlying causal or generative mechanisms which may be
unobservable and operate in the Real world. These mechanisms operate through events and
processes in the Actual world. The postulation of these mechanisms, which if they existed
would generate the observed phenomenon, is through the process of retroduction.
A critical realist approach therefore, which underpins this research, would not be satisfied
with restricting its analysis to just the observable factors operating in the empirical world but
would be in constant search for the underlying generative mechanisms operating in the real
world. In the context of the research methodology of Grounded Theory which underpins this
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research, the search for these generative mechanisms is the essence of the process of
theoretical coding.
3.3 Data collection
There are two basic paradigms available to a researcher, namely, quantitative and qualitative.
This research is anchored in the qualitative paradigm.
3.3.1 Interview process
The principal method of data collection in this research is one on one conversational
interview. Attempts were made that this is on a face to face basis either in my office or at the
office of the participant but where this was not possible use was made of telephonic
interviews. This was largely semi-structured interviews covering two broad areas. This
format is deemed appropriate given the qualitative nature of the research as well as the
seniority and experience of the interviewees. It is also felt that the interviewer being the
researcher possesses the requisite skills to conduct such an interview.
The First broad area to cover was the nature of the participant’s involvement in China –
successes, challenges and failures. During this first part the focus was on understanding the
perceptions of the participant of the system as it currently exists. This gave a sense of the
participant’s perceptions of the strengths and weaknesses of the current system of strategic
deployment of foreign policy. This also entailed understanding the participant’s expectations
from the system.
The second part sought to solicit the participant’s views on the changes necessary to improve
the system of foreign policy deployment. All the participants were informed in advance of the
interview of these two broad areas but the specifics at the interview were also guided by the
responses given by each participant.
As already indicated this was a semi-structured interview as adapted from Lee (1999). Time
was afforded to the interviewee to share their perspectives based on their observations. The
interviewer at times probed for deeper meaning and answers. Some themes, issues and
questions emerged from the ongoing interaction between interviewer and interviewee.
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3.3.2 Data capture
Electronic recording was recommended to each participant and the decision guided by what
would be acceptable to the participant given the need for openness and candour during the
interview. In any case there was detailed note taking during the interview. Where electronic
recording was done, the record was subsequently transcribed. Also recommended was the
participation of an assistant during the interview who also took detailed notes. At the end of
each interview the researcher’s notes and those of the assistant were compared so as to paint
as accurate a picture of the interview as possible. Permission was also sought from the
participants on the participation of the assistant and his role explained.
3.3.3 Ethical considerations
Each participant was informed of the purpose of the study and his / her verbal consent sought
for participating in the study and for the use of the data gathered through the interview. A
confidentiality undertaking was made as appropriate. The assistant chosen was also one
already involved in the handling of classified state information and therefore familiar with
issues of confidentiality. Since the study is about enhancing opportunities for advancing
national interest, it has strong utilitarian underpinnings. The participants to the study also
stand to benefit from the study either as drivers of or as people affected by the effectiveness
of foreign policy deployment.
3.3.4 Participant selection
Four categories of participants were selected for the interviews because of their role either as
drivers of foreign policy deployment or affected by it. All the participants occupy strategic
positions in their organizations and therefore are in a position to infuse strategic content to
the interview. The first category involves people employed by DIRCO either as Ambassadors
or as senior managers but with a strong understanding of our dealings with China. The second
category includes senior managers from different government departments which play a key
role in foreign policy deployment. These are largely departments that also deploy their
officials to be part of our embassies in general but more specifically also in China. These
include the departments and agencies of Trade and Industry; Tourism; Home Affairs;
Agriculture and Science and Technology. The third category would be SA businesses that
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have ventured into China. The fourth category includes scholars on China. (A list of all the
participants and the positions they occupy in their organizations is attached as part of
appendix B). Use was also made of the literature related to countries that are generally
perceived by the interviewees as having leveraged the relationship with China well. Amongst
these countries are Australia and Germany.
3.4 Grounded Theory
The methodology used in this research is the Grounded Theory Methodology (GTM).
Figure 3.3: Stages of Grounded Theory Grounded theory methodology (GTM) owes its historical roots to the pioneering work of
Glaser and Strauss “The discovery of Grounded theory: Strategies for Qualitative research”
2. Level 2 Coding: Category Formation
3. Theoretical Sampling until Saturation
4. Theoretical Coding
5. Grounded Theory
1. Data Capture and Level 1 Coding
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(1967). Glaser and Strauss have since parted ways leading to the development of two distinct
schools of GT. Since their original work, there has been a proliferation of publications in GT
including from Strauss and Glaser as well as their disciples. However, according to
Partington (2002) their original monograph “remains the most widely cited reference to GTM
and method”. It is therefore important that the detailed methodology to be followed in this
research, to the extent that it borrows from both schools, is clearly explained. Even though
GT is positioned in the qualitative research paradigm, it incorporates a number of procedures
such as data saturation and prescriptive coding systems which sit more comfortably with the
quantitative tradition.
3.4.1 Emergent design
In GTM the researcher does not begin with a preconceived theory but rather, having
identified the area of interest or an idea, allows theory to emerge from the data through an
inductive process. The purpose of this approach is not to deny existing knowledge but rather
to give the researcher the space to fully explore emerging trends without being encumbered
by existing knowledge. A key feature of this process is the use of the emergent design
defined by Creswell (2005) as a process whereby “the researcher collects data, analyses it
immediately rather than waiting until all data are collected, and then bases the decision
about what data to collect next on this analysis”. However, this should not be interpreted as
implying that the researcher is passive and has no contribution to make. After all, the
researcher would have familiarized himself with the topic before the research begins. What is
necessary is that the value of any prior experiences must be acknowledged and explicitly
referenced. It is important at all stages to stay close to the data and avoid making leaps of
faith leading to claims that cannot be backed by the data. The quality of the theory that
emerges out of this process is related to the rigour and completeness of the data collection
and analysis. Glaser and Strauss (1967) spell out the essential criteria of the derived theory as
fit, understandability, generalisability and control. Strauss and Corbin (1998) caution that the
theory so derived should not be considered as perfect “but rather as an ever emerging
complex constructed entity”.
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3.4.2 Constant Comparison, Theoretical Sampling, Saturation and Theoretical Coding
The twin pillars of GTM are constant comparison and theoretical sampling. In the case of this
research the data collected is subjected to different stages of the coding process consistent
with the GTM. The first stage involves an open coding process. During this stage the data
collected, whether through electronic recording and subsequent transcription or through
detailed note taking, is subjected to a detailed analysis. The data is then broken down into
substantive codes. Key concepts in the form of prepositions are recorded using as much as
possible the words that the participants used. This is the level 1 coding of the GTM. This is
followed by level 2 coding which essentially refers to the creation of categories through the
grouping together of related prepositional codes. Scrupulous adherence to the process of
emergence ensures that the constructed categories fit the data and not the other way round.
This process is underpinned by the phenomenon of constant comparison whereby each new
property of a category is compared with the other properties within that category.
This results in one of three possible outcomes. It can either fully align with the category, its
definition as well as with the other properties within that category. Alternatively it can lead to
the adjustment of the category or the creation of a new category altogether. The next stage to
be undertaken is that of selective coding through the process of theoretical sampling.
Theoretical sampling is one of the distinguishing features of GT. Through this process, the
next sources for data collection are guided by the emerging analytical concepts. This helps
generate as many properties of the emerging categories as possible. In this study, theoretical
sampling was facilitated through re–interviews and through review of the literature on the
identified categories.
This process is carried on until theoretical saturation is reached, which is the point at which
no new categories or properties of existing categories are found. At this point all instances of
new data only add to the instances of already discovered properties and categories and do not
contribute to the theory.
Then there will follow the process of reduction of the identified categories. This is either
through integrating categories where overlaps are identified or through discarding those
categories deemed to be unimportant. The final stages of the GTM will see the identification
of a core category which will integrate all the existing categories as well as the emergence of
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a theoretical code which defines the relationship among the categories. The validity of the
emergent theoretical code will be enhanced through the use of an archetype; memos or
Glaser’s coding families.
3.5 Systems Approach
Systems thinking provide the tools and approach necessary to deal with complexity, change
and diversity. It encourages us to appreciate that understanding interactions between elements
of a system is more important than a preoccupation with optimizing its constituent parts. This
is so because as Jackson (2008) observed “Holism considers a system as more than its
constituent parts”. This fundamentally distinguishes systems thinking from reductionism.
This study which is about the strategic deployment of foreign policy deals with a subject
conducted through the agency of human beings. In Chapter 2 we elaborated on the
complexity and diversity that characterizes the International Relations arena. Many
stakeholders are involved and these carry with them different World views which shape their
actions. This diversity also brings with it the richness of multiple perspectives. But this is not
a spontaneous process. It needs to be harnessed.
Jackson (2008) identifies 4 types of holistic approaches:
• For improving goal seeking and viability
• For exploring purpose
• For ensuring fairness
• For promoting diversity
For purposes of this research, the most appropriate type is that which relates to exploring
purpose using elegance and effectiveness as measures. In this category, Jackson identifies 3
systems methodologies that can be employed. These are SAST (Churchman); Interactive
Planning (Ackoff) and Soft Systems Methodology (Checkland).
It is the SSM of Peter Checkland that will be employed in this study.
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3.5.1 Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) and its Role in this Study
Soft Systems Methodology enables interventions in ill structured problem situations where
relationship maintaining is at least as important as goal seeking. It also sees answering the
question about “what” we should do as significant as “how” to do it (Jackson, 2003). This
methodology emphasizes problem solution based on clarification of purpose and crafting
solutions that will enjoy stakeholder commitment. It is based on the recognition that different
stakeholders will have different values, beliefs and philosophies. There is therefore a need to
understand these in order to paint as rich a picture of the problem situation as possible.
SSM is suited to pluralist situations where there is need for shared appreciation among
stakeholders of what needs to be done to bring about improvement. SSM allows for each
stakeholder to reveal its description of reality based on its World view. This is embodied in
its Root definition formulated in the form of a CATWOE. The best known tools of the SSM
are: Rich picture, Root definition, Conceptual models and Comparison (SEE APPENDIX
FOR AN SSM FRAMEWORK).
The SSM is particularly relevant to this study. As outlined in Chapter 2, foreign policy
implementation is characterised by a plurality of stakeholders. These stakeholders are
autonomous and each engages in foreign policy deployment from its own perspective. This is
shaped by its world view. The relationship between the purposes advanced by these
stakeholders is not always harmonious. It is thus critical to surface the underlying beliefs and
values and work towards some form of accommodation and shared purpose. This is
particularly so since the international space is highly contested and countries engage
aggressively to pursue their national interests. Reaching some accommodation among
national stakeholders on what actions to take is very important. The alternative is anarchy
which then weakens the national effort and gives ground to competitor states.
The aim of SSM is to structure a debate that can lead to shared perceptions or
accommodation so that desirable change can be implemented. Stage 1 of the SSM, which
relates to studying the problem looks not only at its instrumental features but studies also
social and political features. This is necessary to ensure that changes are not only desirable
but also feasible.
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Others have criticized the SSM on the grounds that it pretends that fundamental conflicts can
be papered over through debate. This is so particularly among those who see conflict as
endemic in a world with so much asymmetry of power.
GTM and SSM used in combination also help give a more holistic picture. They are both
suited for situations which are interactional SSM values the data from the perspective of the
participants whereas GTM develops theory from data interpretation by the researcher.
The output of the GTM process is a theoretical code which represents the theory of a
phenomenon or an explanation of what is happening. The next step is how the system can be
improved. This is where the SSM adds value to this study. It solicits the views of
stakeholders on their understanding of what is happening and facilitates the identification of
changes that are feasible and desirable as well as actions which would serve to improve
system performance.
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CHAPTER 4
RESEARCH RESULTS
4.1 Introduction The purpose of this study as is to assess the strategic deployment of SA’s foreign policy using
China as a case study. This chapter is about the analysis of the results emanating from the
research process. These results should provide an answer to the question
Qualitative interviews were conducted with 15 carefully selected individuals. Two are
employees of the department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) chosen
because of their extensive knowledge of our work in China. Five are employees of other
government departments chosen because of the significant involvement of these departments
in China and their direct involvement in that process. Two are from academia / research
environment and have been following SA’s engagement with China closely. Six are senior
executives from the business sector chosen on account of their significant business operations
in China.
Based on these 15 interviews, there is a clear picture that emerges which is the basis of the
analysis undertaken. All those identified for the interviews were interviewed except for one
due to scheduling difficulties.
In the course of the interviews, it became clear that there are some countries that are regarded
as succeeding in strategically leveraging their relationship with China. Even though these
have many features that distinguish them from South Africa, the published literature was
explored on two (Australia and Germany) to gain some insights into their approaches. It has
to be said that quite a lot of what came out in this process was consistent with what had
surfaced in the context of the study particularly from the business sector.
4.2 Data Presentation and Analysis
This section describes the way the data was collected and analysed. It should be stressed that,
consistent with the Grounded Theory methodology, the collection and analysis did not follow
a linear process but that both steps were carried out simultaneously. In fact the continuous
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analysis influenced the data collection process. This is the essence of the emergent design
(Creswell, 2005).
4.2.1 Collection of Empirical Data
The sampling for this research was purposive. In total, fifteen in depth conversational
interviews were conducted.
Data was collected primarily based on either face to face interviews or telephonically. Face to
face interviews were preferred over the telephonic interviews and all attempts were made to
secure these. All the interviewees selected were assessed to operate at a strategic level. All
were informed in advance of the purpose of the study as well as the specific research
question. Their consent was secured at this stage and the times for the interviews scheduled
on the basis of their understanding and consent. All those approached agreed to participate in
the study. At the end one of those who had agreed could not be interviewed because of
scheduling difficulties. Thirteen of the interviews were conducted face to face and only two
were telephonic. In both cases the people concerned were on international assignments.
During the scheduled meetings, further explanation of the purpose of the study would be
given and the participant’s oral consent reconfirmed. During this stage permission would also
be sought for the participation of an assistant for purposes of note taking. This would be
before the assistant is brought to the room. All but one agreed to the participation of the
assistant. The researcher also made notes on the key points made during the interview. The
researcher and the assistant reviewed the notes taken soon after the interviews using as much
as possible the words used by the interviewee. Verification was based on the comparison
between the notes taken by the assistant and those taken by the researcher. In addition, the
records from the transcription would be used for validation where electronic recording was
done. In one case we had to revert to the interviewee to ensure accurate capturing of a
specific point made during the interview.
In the course of the interview Participant observation was also performed. Literature search
was also utilised especially initially related to Germany and Australia.
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4.2.2 Response of Participants on the Study
All those approached felt that the study was important and timely hence their readiness to
participate. There was a pervasive sense that the decision by South Africa to establish formal
diplomatic relations with the Peoples Republic of China (China) in 1998 was strategically a
correct decision. This has opened up enormous opportunities for South Africa.
There was also a shared view that whatever challenges may exist could never be a
justification for opting out of an engagement with China. Rather, any challenges should spur
SA to search for appropriate ways of ensuring strategic leverage of the possibilities that
China presents. In the main, the participants felt that there had been some progress in the
strategic leveraging of our relationship with China. There was a feeling also that more
progress has been registered in the political domain as compared to the economic domain.
There was also a sense that a number of opportunities have been and continue to be
needlessly squandered and that this requires urgent attention. The hope was expressed that
this study would help highlight the areas needing specific attention.
4.2.3 Concept formation: coding and emergence of categories
The data from the interviews was subjected to detailed analysis. This is captured in Appendix
C (Annexures 1and 2) and further elaborated below.
4.2.3.1 Substantive coding
The data was first broken down into substantive codes in the form of prepositions using as
much as possible the actual words used by the interviewee. This is the Level 1 coding of the
Grounded theory methodology. This is captured in Annexure 1 of Appendix C and the data is
captured such that, for confidentiality, the numbering from 1 to 15 in Annexure 1 of
Appendix C does not mirror the sequence as reflected in the interview log (Annexure 3).
The process of doing the level 1 coding was started after the first 6 interviews. In the analysis
of this first group, as many codes as possible, were lifted and recorded.
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During this process, repetition of the same wording was not captured but where the
formulation enriched the code even if conveying the same message, this was captured. For
example, the following statements from interviewee no 3 were all captured.
• “We have deployed inadequate human resources in China”
• “HR do not correlate with the task”
• “Our HR is skewed towards political work and less for economic work”
• “Our embassy has no capacity to deal with some strategic sectors e.g. mining”
All these formulations were captured as it was clear that the first deals with quantity whilst
the others addressed the issue of the skills fit for the work to be done. Taken together they
throw light on the concern with respect to a variety of dimensions of HR capacity.
Thereafter, with the subsequent interviews each code was compared with the existing codes
and any similarities and connections established. This process of constant comparison helped
give more clarity to the emerging codes. This assisted with the formulation of questions in
subsequent interviews which further shed more light to the data already collected. This
process was continued for the next set of interviews.
4.2.3.2 Emergence of categories
This is the grouping together of concepts that share common characteristics into higher level
groups called categories. Annexure 2 of Appendix C represents level 2 coding which is the
grouping together of related prepositional codes into categories. During this process
scrupulous attention was paid to the principle of emergence to ensure that the categories fit
the data. Also, through a process of constant comparison each new emergent property was
compared to the other properties within that category. This led to a process of continuous
review, enrichment and modification of the categories.
Early analysis revealed nine (9) categories. These were: planning, coordination, organisation,
procedures, politics, level of ambition, human resources, strategic focus, culture. These are
diagrammatically represented below.
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PLANNING LEVEL OFAMBITION
HUMANRESOURCES
COORDINATION POLITICS STRATEGICFOCUS
ORGANISATION PROCEDURALISSUES
CULTURALISSUES
Figure 4.1: Substantive codes As the interviews continued it became clear that no new concepts were being added and that
instead what was coming clearer were the connections between the different substantive
codes. At this point no further interviews were organised.
A literature review focusing on Australia and Germany was then conducted. These two
countries were chosen because of the shared perception among the interviewees that they had
by and large succeeded in leveraging their relationship with China. Literature review was also
conducted on some of the emerging variables as appropriate. This was done until no new
concepts were emerging. At this point, saturation was deemed to have been achieved.
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4.2.4 Concept Modification and Integration (emergence of core variables)
Having formulated all the categories, these were then compared to ensure that the categories
are mutually exclusive. At this point three key critical observations were made.
First, that the category of planning and the category of human resources essentially could be
both collapsed into a single category of capacity. This point was evident especially in my
memos where it was clear that there was concern about our overall capacity in dealing with
China spanning strategic, tactical, technical, and organisational and resource capacities.
Second, the concepts that were captured under organisation essentially related to the bigger
problem of coordination.
Third, the elements under the category of procedure were in fact more reflective of deep
cultural expressions and so these two categories were collapsed into one.
The outcome of these changes was the finalisation of the Level 2 categories as reflected in
Annexure 2 of Appendix C. Each of these categories can be framed in the form of a variable
as follows:
• Level of capacity
• Level of coordination
• Degree of strategic focus
• Level of understanding of political environment
• Level of cultural sensitivity
• Level of ambition
Finally, for the purposes of this study, the category of level of ambition is removed from
further analysis because further analysis revealed that the codes seemed to be highly sector
specific. Conversely, most of the interviewees rather pointed at constraints to realising our
ambitions as opposed to setting low levels of ambition.
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4.2.4.1 Category reduction and emergence of core variables
According to Mullen and Reynolds (1978), the concept of a core variable is defined as
follows: “The concept of a core variable refers to a category which accounts for most of the
variation in a pattern of behaviour and which helps to integrate other categories that have
been discovered in the data”.
An interrelationship diagraph (ID) is the tool that is selected to identify these core variables.
The ID is represented below:
CULTUREPOLITICS
STRATEGIC FOCUS
CO‐ORDINATIONCAPACITY
UNDERSTANDING CHINA
5/0
4/13/2
2/3
1/40/5
Figure 4.2: ID of key categories (out/in)
From the variables identified through the coding process, the key drivers are the Level of
understanding of the political environment and Level of cultural sensitivity. The key outcome
variables are level of coordination and level of capacity. From the ID no further category was
reduced and all remaining 6 categories were subjected to further analysis.
In this ID a further variable which is the Level of understanding China was added and the
reason for this is elaborated hereunder.
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4.2.4.2 Understanding China
Throughout all the interviews, the necessity to understand China in all its dimensions came
out strongly. This was in the context of politics and political organisation. Also with respect
to culture and the impact of this on how China interacts with the outside world. Many reasons
were advanced for this.
First, China is a country in transition. This is most seen in the economic sphere but the impact
also manifests in other areas.
Second, China has largely been a closed society until the reforms of the late 70s led by Den
Xiaoping.
Third, this is country that lives through a number of contradictions such as the simultaneous
veneration of Chairman Mao as the leader of the revolution and his vilification for the
excesses of the Cultural Revolution. Also there is the contradiction reflected in the
liberalisation of the economy in the face of a centralised hierarchical political superstructure.
During this study, and captured in the memos, was how the necessity for this deep
understanding of China underpinned every other aspect and perspective shared on China.
Thus, even though the need for understanding China was not recorded as a category for
practical reasons, but rather that the constituent dimensions particularly politics and culture
were disaggregated, it is felt that this is a significant point which needs to be brought into the
analysis of the results.
4.3 Data interpretation and development of a Theoretical Code
This section seeks to highlight the findings of the study and helps evolve an explanatory
theory that gives an account of the suboptimal deployment of our foreign policy. In keeping
with the Critical Realist perspective, this provides for the generative mechanisms which help
explain what we observe in the empirical world.
Fifteen interviews were carried out for this study.
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The data obtained from the research process has now been subjected to analysis through a
series of steps consistent with the GTM process. Substantive codes have emerged and these
have been subjected to a modification and integration process. Literature was also consulted
to enrich this process particularly as it relates to the experiences of Australia and Germany
which were highlighted during the interviews as countries that are effectively leveraging their
relationship with China.
Six categories have emerged which constitute the key explanatory variables in the process of
effective foreign policy deployment. These are:
• Level of capacity
• Degree/Level of coordination
• Degree of strategic focus
• Level of understanding of the political environment
• Level/degree of cultural sensitivity
• Level of understanding of China
The literature on two of these categories, namely, Culture and coordination was reviewed as
part of the theoretical sampling stage of the GTM. The literature on culture was both generic
as well as specific to the cultural challenges of conducting diplomacy in China. For purposes
of elegance these reflections are elaborated in Chapter 2 (section 2.2.4) of this study. Suffice
to say that this literature concurred with the findings of the study and served to fortify the
main logic emerging from the data.
A CLD that explains how these critical variables interact to influence the effectiveness of the
strategic deployment of foreign policy was constructed. This helps elaborate the theoretical
code of the GTM process.
Having looked at the substantive codes, I investigated these against the family of theoretical
codes as outlined in Glaser’s Theoretical Coding Families of Grounded Theory and also
searched for a corresponding archetype. None of these provided a reliable model for this
study. The closest model was Glaser’s family of Culture which deals with social norms,
social values, social beliefs and social sentiments. Greater reliance was therefore put on what
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was captured on the memos based on the literature consulted for this study especially that on
foreign policy and on interviews that were carried out.
With this conceptual framework in mind, the dynamics of the key variables that constitute the
theoretical code are expressed in the CLD below
:
Level of effectiveness of foreign policy deployment
Level of understanding of China
Level of appreciation of the role of culture
degree of coordination
level of capacity
degree of strategic leverage
Level of politicalrelations
Degree ofstrategic focus
focus on process
S
S
S
S
S
SS
S
S S
Figure 4.3: Theoretical Code All the stakeholders interviewed agree that the strategic decision to establish ties with China
was a correct one. They also agree that work in China presents its own peculiar challenges. In
this respect there is a need to deepen understanding of China if results are to be achieved.
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Understanding China leads to both a deeper appreciation of the politics and political
dynamics in China as well as appreciation of the need for sensitivity to Chinese culture.
With better appreciation of the politics of China, there will be better appreciation of the
possibilities that exist. This will create space for proactive engagement and more strategic
focus as opposed to the reactive posture that characterises current engagement. A more
coherent and strategically focused engagement will necessitate higher levels of coordination.
With better appreciation of the role of culture and the attendant cultural sensitivities, there
will be a need to pay more attention to process and procedure. Chinese are hierarchical and
sensitive to protocol. Sensitivity to these leads to the necessity for greater coordination.
Greater coordination enhances existing capacity. At the same time it allows for gaps to be
identified so that the requisite capacity can be built. Appropriate capacity enhances the
strategic leveraging and thus raises the level of overall effectiveness of the strategic
deployment of foreign policy. With more effective deployment of foreign policy, we broaden
and deepen the scale of involvement creating more opportunities to learn and understand
China even more. In this way a virtuous cycle is created.
4.4 Development of a Solutions Model
Having identified all the drivers in the dynamic model of the variables, there is now a need to
specify key interventions that would leverage the critical drivers. The tool employed for this
is the SSM. A detailed step by step application of the methodology is reflected in Appendix
B.
Stage 1 identifies the problem in its unstructured form. Stakeholders who drive foreign policy
and those affected by it were identified. These are indicated in Section 3.3.4. A description of
the problem was further elucidated during the interviews with these stakeholders.
Stage 2 is representation in the form of a Rich Picture.
Stage 3 involves understanding the perspectives of each of the stakeholders and capturing this
in a comprehensive statement called a “Root Definition”. To unpack the perspectives that
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inform each root definition, one steps out of the Real world into a Conceptual world and
applies a CATWOE analysis (Checkland and Scholes, 1990).
Stage 4 is the development of conceptual models. These are aimed at achieving what is in the
root definitions. During this stage the researcher remains in the conceptual world. See
Appendix B for the conceptual models
Stage 5 compares the conceptual model with the real world. This essentially is a comparison
between the systems world where the root definitions and the conceptual world have been
built and the real world where the concern exists. This is outlined in Appendix B. Two key
observations emerge from a comparison of the two models which have a significant bearing
on the effectiveness of foreign policy deployment. These are:
• In the systems thinking world, there is a dominant perspective that stakeholders act
selflessly to advance citizen welfare whereas in the real world a strong streak of
individualism and self- centeredness is in evidence.
• In the systems world, stakeholders assume that the requisite knowledge necessary to
act appropriately exists whereas in the real world there are gaps in knowledge limiting
effectiveness and the attainment of goals.
Stage 6 determines the desirable and feasible changes that can be implemented. This is
reflected in Appendix B. Essentially this is about improving the knowledge base on which
decisions on China are taken as well as the imperative need for greater coordination to
improve welfare of citizens. This requires constant communication of the uniting factors and
downplaying of areas of difference.
Stage 7 elaborates action to be taken. These include:
• Investing in training in Chinese culture
• Coordinated training of China specialists in both public and private sector
• Pooling and sharing of public and private sector knowledge and resources
• Constantly clarify goals centred around the relationship between effectiveness of foreign
policy deployment and improvement of the welfare of all citizens
• Communication to enhance coordination and strategic focus
These specific actions, by leveraging the core variables in the theoretical code provide an
answer to the question. This is captured diagrammatically below.
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Effective deploymentof foreign policy
Level ofunderstanding of china
appreciating the roleof culture
degree ofcoordination
level of capacity
degree of strategicleverage
Level of politicalrelations
Degree ofstrategic focus
focus on process
communication
Training Chinaspecialists
training in Chineseculture and language
Pooling public and privatesector knowledge and
resources
S
S
S
S
S
SS
S
S
S
S
S
SS
Figure 4.4. Conceptualisation of relationship between the core variables and recommended interventions in enhancing the strategic deployment of foreign policy.
4.5 Conclusion
Analysis of the results from the GTM process identified initially nine substantive codes
that emerged from the data. After a process of further concept modification, integration
and category reduction, consistent with the GTM, six categories emerged. A theoretical
code was then established. This established the dynamics of the variables that would drive
effectiveness of the strategic deployment of foreign policy. The principal driver of this
system is the need to understand China. Throughout the research this emerged as central
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to any chances of success in China and includes understanding of power relations,
cultural sensitivities, protocol and procedural factors as well as the political dynamics.
This understanding is deemed necessary for forging a coherent strategy of engagement be
it political or economic. Clarity on strategy as well as better appreciating how things are
done in China, would in turn call for a higher level of coordination. Coordination across
sectors and across the public/ private divide is critical for effective use of existing
capacity as well as identifying gaps allowing for these to be addressed. This is necessary
for the strategic leveraging of the opportunities leading to higher levels of effectiveness in
foreign policy deployment.
A solutions model based on the SSM was then constructed. This identified specific
actions and interventions which if implemented would leverage the critical drivers.
The integration of the results from the GTM and SSM processes provides an answer to
the question.
To achieve a better understanding of China, there needs to be coordinated training on
China with specific attention paid to the cultural aspect. There also needs to be sharing of
information and knowledge especially between the public and the private sectors. This
requires coordination. Communication is vital to enhance both the level of understanding
of China as well as to facilitate coordination which is so central in the pathways leading
to enhanced effectiveness of foreign policy deployment.
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CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION AND EVALUATION
5.1 Introduction
In Chapter 1, the role of effective strategic deployment of foreign policy in advancing a
country’s domestic agenda was presented. A case was made for the selection of China in
this study. Key in this regard is the growing power and influence of China in the
unfolding global geopolitical reconfiguration as well as the growing involvement of
China in Africa – a region of central importance in South Africa’s system of international
relations. The current relations between SA and China were presented particularly
highlighting the strength of the political relations and yet the suboptimal translation of
these to sustainable economic benefits. This situation raises questions about the
effectiveness of Foreign policy deployment. This was identified as the key concern
driving this research.
In Chapter 2, the literature on international relations and foreign policy was reviewed.
This pointed to a growing complexity and diversity of stakeholders involved. This is due
to the growing importance of the new areas of foreign policy as well as the shift from a
state centric view of foreign policy implementation to the recognition of the importance
of non state actors. There is also a growing recognition of the agency of human decision
makers in international relations. This brings with it the need to appreciate other theories
that have not been developed in international relations such as how cultural factors and
social constructions within a culture affect state behaviour. This observation also
necessitated a detailed review of the literature on culture. Also among the key categories
emerging from the research were coordination and the cultural issues. Literature review
on both these categories was undertaken.
With respect to the topic of investigation, the lack of credible tools for measuring success
or effectiveness of foreign policy deployment was identified as a shortcoming in the
literature. A lot of work in this area tends to focus on process rather than outputs. Goal
setting tends to be crafted in vague and general terms making measurement difficult. For
sure, there are some objective difficulties such as the fact that foreign policy tends to
pursue multiple goals; that it is characterised by strategic interaction and that impact not
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only leads to policy changes but also to changes in beliefs, attitudes, opinions and
expectations. While all this is true, the point remains that goals need to be set clearly and
evaluated understanding that no state can realise fully all its goals all the time.
In Chapter 3, the research methodology is outlined. Philosophically this study is informed
by a Critical Realist perspective. Central to this underlying philosophical paradigm is a
recognition that social phenomena are socially constructed and as such must be positioned
in time, space and culture. Also by adopting a critical realist perspective, it is accepted
that any observable factors in the empirical world need to be explained through
generative mechanisms operating in the real world. This study seeks to reveal these
generative mechanisms using a GTM. Sampling was purposeful and the primary method
for data collection being through a conversational interview technique. Ethical
considerations during the study were taken into account particularly confidentiality and
informed consent.
The whole research methodology was anchored on a systems approach. This study
involved a plurality of stakeholders which have different world views that lead to specific
conceptualisation of purpose and desired action. These need to be reconciled through a
process of accommodation. Furthermore the area of concern is about the effectiveness of
foreign policy deployment. The systems methodology used is the SSM. GTM and SSM
used in combination also gave a more holistic picture. This is so in part because GTM
develops theory from data interpretation by the researcher whereas SSM values data from
the perspective of the participant.
In Chapter 4, the results of the study were analysed consistent with the GTM
methodology. This included level 1 coding, level 2 coding, code modification and
integration as well as category reduction. Literature was also consulted to further enrich
the analysis. At the end of this process six categories emerged as key variables in
determining the effectiveness of foreign policy deployment. The dynamics of the
relationship of these categories were constructed in the form of a CLD. This helped
establish the theoretical code.
The data from the SSM process was also integrated to this code in a manner as to ensure
the leverage of the key variables/categories by the specific actions emerging from the
SSM process. This provided the answer to the question and this is captured in figure 4.4.
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Chapter 5 evaluates the research and assesses its implications for theory, policy and
practice. It also identifies the limitations of the study as well as identifies areas for future
research. This study highlights the importance of selecting a diversity of stakeholders for
participation in a study of this nature. It is clear that business had a different set of
insights compared to those in government and was also acutely aware of what countries
such as Australia and Germany had done to leverage economic relations with China.
These insights have enriched this study.
The relevance of this study, its utility and validity are also firmly established.
5.2 Conclusions about the Research Question
This section relates the research question to the analysis of the results as presented in
Chapter 4. It also contextualises this in the literature reviewed in Chapter 2.
To restate the research question is “What should SA do to improve the effectiveness of the
strategic deployment of foreign policy in China”
The research question is powerful and action focused. It is relevant to the concern which
is about the effectiveness of foreign policy deployment. The concern was widely shared
by those interviewed and the research question guided the research process in providing
an understanding of the underlying dynamics in the relationship between South Africa
and China. The study also provided concrete actions which would serve to leverage the
core categories emerging from the research and reflecting the dynamics of the
deployment of foreign policy between the two countries. This is clearly reflected in figure
4.4 that reflects the answer to the question and how the specific recommended actions
leverage the core categories leading to enhanced effective deployment of foreign policy
through enhanced coordination and capacity.
5.3 Explanation of the Results
The critical drivers of the effectiveness that emerged from the results include:
Understanding China; Understanding the political environment; and role of culture. These
lead to improved coordination and enhanced appropriate capacity as the instrumental
tools to effect required changes in the effectiveness of foreign policy deployment.
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5.3.1 Understanding China
In the interviews all the 3 critical drivers came out. One can argue that Understanding
China is a higher level category that could subsume both culture and politics. But what
was clear was that there was a nuanced difference between understanding the culture and
the dynamic of the politics in China and the translation of that understanding into patterns
of behaviour that lead to desired results.
This distinction is reflected in my memos and seemed to convey a careful message that if
SA wants to do business with China – there is an adaptation on SA’s side that is required
so as to align with a dominant paradigm of logic and sense making that guides decision
making in China. As an example, South Africans may be casual, less formal and less
preoccupied with protocol in their demeanour but need to understand how this sits
uncomfortably with the Chinese. Given this reality, what type of accommodation is
possible? Is it China or SA that has to change in this case?
During the interviews there was deliberate probing on this issue. This is what led to the
treatment of the category of Politics as a separate category from Culture. Understanding
China was then brought in not so much as a category but as a variable that drives the
whole system. It impacts on each and every other variable.
5.3.2 Relationship between Politics and Economics
In the framing of the concern in Chapter 1, it was argued that the relationship between SA
and China has a solid foundation based on historical ties and good political relations. The
problem was about the failure to translate this into sustainable economic relations. This
conveyed the implicit logic that good political relations are a necessary lever to achieve
the desired economic results.
During the interviews there was a counter argument expressed which suggested the need
to use economic relations as a lever to build the political relations. This was an
observation based on what was understood to be the strategy pursued by both Germany
and Australia. The argument being that this is an approach pursued by both these
countries to navigate around the difficult waters of their concerns with issues of
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democracy and human rights in China. They, of course, subscribe to the key non
negotiable for China namely the One China Policy.
Some of those interviewed thought that SA could transpose this logic to its own
relationship with China – focus on economics and let the politics follow. This reflected
the frustration that there still is too much focus on politics in our approach to the neglect
of an aggressive economic strategy.
This is a complex issue and an ‘either – or’ approach unlikely to be useful.
There is no doubt that the capacity deployed by the government in the political arena
surpasses that in the economic space. However, there should be a distinction between the
nature of the capacity deployed and the issue of levers to use. There is no doubt that SA
needs to increase its capacity for economic work in China. South Africa, however, has
some unique features that it will be well advised to build upon.
• It has historical ties with China which are based on a shared anti- colonial
struggle. These run deep and are a source of pride to both countries
• SA is perhaps the only country that China in some aspects also leverages for
greater access to a whole continent. China is building all round mutually
beneficial ties with Africa (political, economic, cultural etc). The African
continent is not an uncontested space for China. China carefully uses the history
of political solidarity with countries in Africa to build other partnerships, largely
economic, in the current period. It also is worth noting that in the rest of Africa,
China and SA are both partners and competitors.
The point being made is that it would be foolhardy for SA not to use political relations as
an important lever that requires both consolidation and being built upon for broader
relationship building. It is also an important lever to use to seek accommodation with
China particularly with respect to the common interests that both countries have in Africa.
This is the challenge that foreign policy deployment in China faces. It is argued therefore
that the framework adopted in this study and reflected in the analysis of the dynamics of
the variables is appropriate.
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5.3.3 The Challenge of Coordination
The issue of coordination both in planning and implementation is crucial. This study has
revealed the richness of the knowledge that has been gained over time on China by
different stakeholders in South Africa. This, however, still seems compartmentalised
between the public and the private sectors. This reduces overall capacity to act
effectively. Communication has been identified as a key intervention in bridging this gap.
The actions identified through the SSM process, such as training, could themselves be
enhanced through pooling of public and private sector resources. This is so because in
virtually each of these activities there is some work going on but in isolated corners.
Different structures in government and in business are all grappling with the same
challenges albeit to different degrees.
A disturbing element is the suspicion of anti business attitudes on side of government
expressed during the interviews. Even if this is just at the level of perception, it needs to
be addressed as part of a conscious effort towards coordinated action. South Africa’s
strategy and effectiveness will be the poorer if this is not addressed.
It has already been indicated that China speaks and acts in a coordinated manner. South
Africa needs to do the same. This sharpens messaging and projects the country in a
positive light. Business can benefit more by understanding and leveraging the political
space that government and the ruling party have opened. At the same time, political actors
can gain deeper insights if they leveraged the resources and knowledge available in the
private sector.
5.3.4 Importance of a coherent strategy and focus
While many participants had a sense of the political strategy being pursued, there were
major concerns about the lack of a coherent economic strategy. This weakness spanned
many areas of economic activity such as trade, investment, tourism, accessing finance for
infrastructure and leveraging R&D and S&T capacity. Of course progress varies in the
different areas. This sense of a lack of a coherent focused strategy applies equally to our
bilateral relations as well as on our broader regional engagement with China. This has
allowed China to set the pace – and even “ talk regional whilst it acts local”. By so doing
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China plays to its enormous strength deriving from the huge asymmetry of power it
wields relative to any country in the continent.
Everyone interviewed stressed the importance of heightened economic activity with
China. There is a sense that the Chinese are more focused and know what they want in the
relationship while we pursued ad hoc strategies and objectives. As a result of the lack of a
grand strategy, there is also a sense that at times we have given to China without getting
reciprocal concessions. One commonly cited example in this regard is the 2004 decision
to offer China a market economy status (MES) – a huge benefit for China – without
getting any significant concessions in return. They point to the significant concessions
that other countries have negotiated with the Chinese in return for offering an MES.
There is also a sense that we did not fully appreciate the impact of the accession by China
to the WTO on our trade relations.
There is also a strong view that we have not effectively used our State Owned Enterprises
(SOEs) and our Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) more so because of the strong
role of government in the Chinese economy and the high liquidity that both the Chinese
banks and state enterprises have. A point has also been made of China’s experience with
the role of infrastructure in unlocking economic potential. We have not focused
sufficiently on possible partnerships on this key priority already established as one of the
binding constraints in our own economic performance.
All that said, however, the participants believe that over time there has been some
improvement in the nature of our engagement. The recent adoption by government of
IPAP2 and the recent establishment of the Economic Development department (EDD)
have been cited as developments that are assisting in the elaboration of a coherent
strategy. The recent adoption by our government of the New Growth Path should also
serve to strengthen this trend. Such an evolving strategy should reflect understanding that
the Chinese economy is going up the value chain and is becoming a major importer of
inputs into its production processes.
A further point is for us to manage the tension between our normative values and
commercial interests. Examples such as Australia, South Korea and Germany are cited as
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countries that have managed this balance well and thus leveraging the relationship with
China successfully.
There is a sense that we are not forthright and precise in spelling out to China our own
expectations. One hopes that the evolving clarity internally, already referred to, will give
us the necessary confidence.
5.4 Implications for Theory
The role of culture as one of the critical drivers reinforces the school of thought in
international relations that is putting emphasis on the need to understand the importance
of the agency of human decision-makers (Hudson, 2005). This requires careful study as
human actors belong to different groups and categories simultaneously and therefore
carry several layers of programming (Hofstede, 2001). People working in the field of
international relations need to appreciate both cultural factors as well as social
constructions within each culture. This calls for greater inter-disciplinarity and
appreciation of the role of behavioural sciences in the practice of diplomacy.
5.5 Implications for Policy and Practice
The findings of this study have important implications for policy and practice.
Fundamentally a lot could be achieved in improving effectiveness of foreign policy
deployment by pooling existing resources.
The research revealed significant areas of synergy between the public and the private
sectors. The government of SA has significantly focused on the strengthening of political
relations. Through leveraging also the relations between the CPC and the ANC,
government officials have a deeper understanding of the broad political environment in
China. This is important when one considers that this is one of the critical drivers of the
effectiveness of foreign policy deployment.
On the other hand, business came across in the study as having a better appreciation of
the cultural and procedural aspects. Those from business who were interviewed based
their views sometimes on the hard lessons of failure. They could demonstrate change in
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fortunes for the better by doing things differently driven by the imperative of
understanding Chinese sensitivities.
Some of the practical interventions suggested such as:
• Training in Chinese culture and language
• Strengthening of institutions specializing in Chinese studies
• Exchange of information among those with experience of working with China
would all benefit from the pooling of resources across the public/private divide. All need
to promote the spirit of Team SA. It should, however, be acknowledged that some work
in this regard has started. What is called for is significant scaling up.
This challenge of coordination and therefore better capacity deployment would have
application not only in China but also in other areas of foreign policy deployment.
5.6 Research Evaluation
This section evaluates the research against the criteria of Relevance, Utility, Validity and
Ethics.
5.6.1 Relevance
Effectiveness of foreign policy deployment is important in leveraging international
opportunities to address domestic challenges. South Africa has had a rapid expansion of
its diplomatic relations since the advent of democracy. Enormous resources have been
devoted to this task. It needs to be established that these resources are being put to good
use as there is an attendant opportunity cost. South Africa faces a myriad of challenges
internally and these need to be addressed. Fundamental to help address them is the need
to grow the SA economy, create jobs and deal with poverty and underdevelopment. To
grow the economy SA needs to leverage international opportunities.
The concern that drives this investigation is the apparent failure of foreign policy
engagement to translate warm political relations with China into sustainable economic
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benefit. This study helps identify drivers of success to enhance effectiveness of foreign
policy deployment which would help address the identified concern.
The study is done on China – a country of great strategic importance and which presents
enormous opportunities for South Africa. Also, interaction with China straddles a lot of
areas of priority in South Africa’s foreign policy. This creates the possibility that the
study will benefit not only relations with China but may have elements that have wider
application.
The construction of the high powered question “what should SA do to improve
effectiveness of foreign policy deployment?” also ensures that concrete interventions are
suggested to deal with the concern in the situation.
The study therefore demonstrates sufficient relevance.
5.6.2 Utility
Having outlined the major concern in the situation, a high powered question was
formulated. In answer to this question the study revealed a number of critical drivers and
the dynamics of the variables presented. The three critical drivers of the system were
identified as: understanding China, cultural sensitivity and political relations.
A systems methodology (SSM) was also employed to develop a solutions model that
would ensure leverage of the critical drivers. Through this process, actions were
identified. These were: training in Chinese culture and language, training of China
specialists, pooling of private and public sector resources and communication. These
actions leverage the critical drivers as indicated in the answer in Chapter 4
The research goal was achieved through a logical link between the concern, the question
and the answer. Thus the utility of the study has been established.
5.6.3 Validity
The way the research was conducted creates a strong basis for its validity. There was
rigor in the application of the research methodology as outlined in Chapter 3. The
interviewees were all people active in China which allowed for sharing of insights with a
strong factual basis. The diversity of the stakeholders allowed for multiple perspectives to
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enrich both the concern as well as the proposed solutions. For more in-depth assessment
of the validity of the study, the study is evaluated against the criteria of credibility,
dependability, transferability and confirmability.
5.6.3.1 Credibility and dependability
This study provides a good basis for the credibility and dependability of its findings. Data
capture and analysis was robust. Purposive sampling allowed for the identification of
people with a long history of involvement in China and had opportunity to observe the
relations evolve over time. The following factors also enhanced the credibility and
dependability of the study and its findings:
• The unstructured interview allowed for a deeper exploration of the issues as they
arose. The researcher is sufficiently skilled to cope with this type of interview.
• The use of emergent design in GTM allowed for deeper probing and clarification
of emerging ideas
• The participants were keen to participate in the study, saw value in the research
and wished to ensure that it truly addresses the concern which was widely shared
• All those selected for the study participated, except for one, because of scheduling
challenges
• Data from the study was triangulated with data from the literature especially with
respect to Australia and Germany
• The use of systems thinking was appropriate given the complexity and diversity
that characterizes foreign policy deployment. Creative holism approach (Jackson)
allowed for a full appreciation of the complex interactions
• Use of diagrams that show the dynamics of the variables enhanced the
understanding of the relationships/interactions resulting in richness in the
understanding of the generative mechanisms.
5.6.3.2 Transferability
It has been argued before, under delimitation of scope (section 1.6), that some of the
findings of the study have wider application. This is because there are areas of similarities
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in foreign policy deployment regardless of what countries. Furthermore, the interaction
with China provides depth and comprehensiveness.
The study design, methodology used and the tools of analysis demonstrated sufficient
robustness for them to be used in other similar contexts.
The SCQUARE framework (Tom Ryan, 2009) creates a logical flow that ensures
coherence of an argument and can be used in different contexts.
5.6.3.3 Confirmability
Throughout the study, an attempt has been made to present a logical flow of the
argument. The basis for the concern has been elaborately canvassed. This concern is
logically connected to the question. The logic followed in the study process is presented
in an understandable manner. In addition:
• A good trail has been kept of the data used
• Data sources are identifiable
• Literature sources used in this study are properly referenced
Overall, on the basis of the above, the findings of this research are deemed valid with
respect to their credibility, dependability, transferability and confirmability.
5.6.4 Ethics
The ethical premise of this study will be assessed using the model by Velasquez on utility,
rights, justice and caring involved in making moral judgements.
The actions suggested in the answer, through acting on the critical drivers that would
enhance effectiveness of foreign policy deployment, would maximize social benefits. All
the key stakeholders stand to benefit. Also, to the extent that foreign policy is meant to
help address pressing domestic challenges, the citizenry also stands to benefit albeit to
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different degrees. There are no identifiable social injuries that would attend this study.
This study thus advances the utilitarian principle.
The implementation model enhances the capacity and knowledge of those who would
drive foreign policy deployment. It is also anticipated that those involved would not have
been coerced to do so. Enhancement of capacity and knowledge advance the right of
those involved. The impact on the overall effectiveness of foreign policy and the
attendant improvement of citizens’ welfare also advances the rights to a decent quality of
life. It can be concluded therefore that the ethical principle of right is also advanced
The principle of justice refers to a just distribution of benefits and burdens. The benefits
of envisaged changes will be distributed justly to all stakeholders and the citizenry. Of
course, the benefits accruing to each stakeholder even within a stakeholder category may
not be the same. For example business may benefit more from success but also stand to
lose more if success is not registered. Again even within the category of business, the
impact will be differential.
The entire study is premised on the role foreign policy deployment plays in addressing
pressing domestic challenges. In the context of this study, these are poverty,
unemployment and underdevelopment. The very basis of this study is about alleviating
suffering. Successful implementation would create possibilities for alleviating the
suffering of the most vulnerable. It, therefore, has a strong caring ethical foundation and
none of the suggested actions negate this.
5.7 Limitations
Section 1.6 spelt out the delimitations of scope and implications. In essence, it was argued
that some of the findings of this study have wider relevance because of some
commonalities in interstate relations. The country being studied also provided an
advantage in this respect in that interaction between SA and China straddles all the areas
of importance in SA’s foreign policy.
However, it was also pointed out that this study is carried out in a specific country with its
own unique features and at a specific point in time. Aspects of this study can therefore not
be generalised beyond China.
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In this section I introduce other factors that came out as the study progressed.
First, a wide range of stakeholders participated. Each expressed its views. There were
areas of convergence as well as some clear distinctions in the areas of emphasis. Most
important is that the distinctions reflected intergroup perspectives. This pointed to the
value and the richness brought by the involvement of different stakeholders and helps
give validity to the results
Second, much as there was scrupulous attention to the data as it emerged consistent with
the GTM, the researcher is not disconnected from the area of research. Also those
interviewed cannot be said to have exhaustively reflected the views of the stakeholder
group from which they came. These subjective elements need to be acknowledged as a
limitation of the research.
All said though, these limitations do not present restrictions on the significance of the
results.
5.8 Implications for further research
In the course of this study, it became clear that measuring
performance/success/effectiveness of foreign policy deployment is not a well developed
area. Increasingly, every area of human activity has to relate to the difficult choices to be
made in resource allocation. There is a need to justify the enormous resources that
countries spend in foreign policy deployment. At a macro level this is an area deserving
of further research.
Given the strategic importance of China, a follow up study is needed after some attention
has been paid to the critical drivers and interventions to leverage these drivers. This
would shed invaluable lessons for a focused approach to foreign policy deployment.
A key area for further research would be the extent to which greater awareness of the
importance of cultural factors actually translates into appropriate behavioural changes by
South African interlocutors so as to more effectively leverage China.
On the other hand, China is a country in transition. It is opening up to the world and
aggressively asserting itself globally. Its major corporations are establishing themselves
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globally and in so doing have to play by the established rules of the game. This would
suggest that China itself might change. This might have implications for foreign policy
deployment.
Finally, this paper has been premised on a view that China also sees value in partnering
with South Africa and recognises South Africa as a regional power with global influence.
This, of course, is not an immutable fact and yet very important in informing the need for
South Africa to assume an assertive posture in engaging China. This requires ongoing
monitoring especially because South Africa’s position is itself being challenged by some
countries in the continent. There is thus a need for South Africa to seek ways of ensuring
continued relevance and attractiveness to China. South Africa needs to have a more
coherent understanding of its comparative advantages and have a strategy to leverage
these for long term benefit. Some of those interviewed believe that there is more that
South Africa can present as a long term value proposition, such as its developed service
sector, but that this needs to be thought through and presented in a coherent and
integrated manner.
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APPENDICES APPENDIX A
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GOAL: Foreign policy is an important tool to advance a country’s national interest. Its effective implementation is important in leveraging international opportunities to respond to a country’s domestic environment. This may be with respect to bilateral relations with a specific country. It may also be to create favourable policy space with respect to the Multilateral system that underpins global governance. The purpose of this study is to assess and improve the effectiveness of the strategic deployment of Foreign Policy.
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Foreign policy is an important tool to advance a country’s national interest.. Currently, the deployment of our Foreign policy ( in terms of focus and organization ) has some limitations and this leads to failure to leverage available opportunities optimally. Appropriate lessons will be drawn from extensive review of relevant literature and personal experiences.
RESEARCH QUESTION :
• WHAT SHOULD SA DO TO IMPROVE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENT OF ITS FOREIGN POLICY?
METHODS
Critical Realism will form the underlying perspective informing the research. Data will be collected through one on one conversational interviews. The data will be collected between September and November 2010 both in SA and China. Selected key stakeholders will be interviewed. Data will be subjected to successive levels of coding consistent with the Grounded theory methodology (GTM). The SSM will be used to effect changes to the system that are systemically desirable and feasible in our context.
VALIDITY
The key threat to the validity of the results will be participant bias. This will be limited both through rigorous capturing of the data as well as careful selection of the interviewees.
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APPENDIX B
1. Diplomatic Representation
Source: Departmen on tatet of Internati al Relations, Branch S Protocol.
Diplomatic Missions
Non-resident Representatives
Consular Posts
Honorary Consular Posts
International Organisations
Other (Taipei Liaison Office)
TOTAL
2004/2005 113 16 53 73 22 1 278 2005/2006 118 11 53 73 23 1 279 2006/2007 122 11 53 73 23 1 283 2007/2008 121 11 53 73 26 1 285 2008/2009 121 16 53 73 28 1 292 2009/2010 122 16 53 73 31 1 296 2010/2011 123 18 53 79 35 1 309
Figure 6.1: Foreign government representation in South Africa per annum. Source: Department of International Relations and Cooperation. Branch: State Protocol.
2001/
02 2002/ 03
2003/ 04
2004/ 05
2005/ 06
2006/ 07
2007/ 08
2008/ 09
Africa 27 28 32 37 38 39 43 46 Latin America 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 Asia/Australasia 22 26 27 27 28 30 31 32 North America 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 Europe 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 All Missions 91 96 101 107 109 114 119 124 Figure 6.2 : South African Mission Operations abroad. Source: The Presidency (2010). Development Indicators 2009. The Presidency. South Africa.
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SOFT SYSTEMS METHODOLOGY Soft systems methodology (SSM) is a methodology that enables interventions in ill structured problem situations where relationship maintaining is at least as important as goal seeking. It also sees answering the question about “what” we should do as significant as “how” to do it (Jackson, 2003).
Figure 6.4: Stages of an SSM process. In the case being studied, the problem situation being studied is the effectiveness of the strategic deployment of Foreign Policy. Foreign policy implementation is characterised by complexity, diversity and constant change in the environment. Many actors are involved. This diversity is reflected in the Rich Picture below.
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BRICS
SA EMBASSY BEIJING
PRC EMBASSY PRETORIA
CINO‐AFRICA
POLITICS
TRADE
SECU
RITY
CO0OPERATION
SOUTH AFRIC
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CATWOE OF VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS DIRCO
Employees Other
Government Departments
Business Academia
Customers
Government Entities Civil Society Business
South African Public
Clients Consumers of their products
A variety of institutions in Government and Civil Society
Actors Minister Employees of the Department
Ministers, Civil Servants
Business Management Workers
Academics Researchers
Transformation
Deployment of Foreign Policy
Leverage opportunities in different sectors
Entering into business transactions and production arrangements.
Produce information to be used by other stakeholders
World View
Need to use Foreign Policy to advance the National Interest
Advance national interest in respective sectors.
Wealth generation is good for all stakeholders. Creates value for shareholders
Provide objective information to be used by different stakeholders.
Owners Government / Citizenry
Government/ Citizenry
Shareholders Civil Society Organisations/government
Environmental Constraints
• Constitutional/ legal arrangements
• Global economic and geopolitical factors
• Resources • Domestic
political sensitivities
• Resources • International
Law • Features
(unique) of different countries
• National laws • Nature of
competition • Global
agreements
• Scepticism • Laws • Apathy in
general populace
Table 6.1: Catwoe of Various Stakeholders Source: created for this study
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Root Definitions The root definitions of the relevant systems are expressed below.
DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION (DIRCO)
Government department, which through its employees, is charged with leading and coordinating other departments and sectors to advance South Africa’s foreign policy in China to advance the country’s national interest and improve welfare of its citizens.
OTHER GOVERNMENT ENTITIES
Primary custodians of advancing National Interest by leveraging opportunities in areas of focus so as to improve the welfare of citizens through actions of employees.
BUSINESS
Shareholder owned system that engages in business activity to meet customer needs, create value for shareholders and generally improve welfare of citizens.
ACADEMIC/RESEARCHERS
Civil society/partially government owned system that provides academic output used by other stakeholders as they seek to improve the welfare of citizens.
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CONCEPTUAL MODELS
Search forInvestment or
TradeOpportunities
Need toGenerate
Profits
ImprovesWelfare of All
Work withThose thatHelp youMinimise
Risk
Assess RiskIncluding
POlitical Risk
IdentifyCountryShowing
Some Promise
BUSINESS
Figure 6.6: Conceptual Model: Business
Source: created for this study
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Figure 6.7: Conceptual Model: Government Departments
Determinecountry whererelations are
to beestablished
Look atstrategic
opportunities to leverage
Work withothers throughmaking themawar of your
intentions
GovernmentDepartment
Source: created for this study
Figure 6.8: Conceptual Model: Department of Foreign Affairs/DIRCO
Coordinationof Foreign
Policy
UnderstandForeignPolicy
Implications
EnsureOthers are
Familiarwith them
Assist Othersto Identifyand Act on
Opportunities
IdentifyOpportunitiesAbroad and
EstablishRelations
DEPARTMENT OFFOREIGN AFFAIRS
Source: created for this study
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PursuesNoble
Interests
SeeksPartnerships
Acts in Interest of Academia
and Research community
Collaborate withGovernment
and Businessbut Keeps
Independence
ACADEMIA
Figure 6.9: Conceptual Model: Academia.
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COMPARISON OF MODELS Systems Thinking Real world
Government Departments • Advance National Interest
• Selfless
• Act to assert power and control
• Protects turf • Suspicious of others
Business • Take long-term view • Act in interest of all • Sensitive to national
interest • Work with others • Shareholder value • Has knowledge to
make informed decisions
• Individualistic and opportunistic
• Motivated by need to maximise shareholder value
• Sometimes actions driven by incentive structure for managers
• Knowledge incomplete
Academia / Researchers • Pursues noble interest and accountable to members
• Willing to partner with others
• Sometimes interest of leaders dominates
• Sometimes not accountable
• Organisations used to promote power for leaders
Department of Foreign Affairs
• Seeks to coordinate for effectiveness
• Facilitator • Capable of task • Makes others aware of
policy and opportunities
• Resource capacity constraints
• Sometimes self-promoting
• Relationship with others top-down
• Has gaps in knowledge
• Capacity constraints Table 6.2: Comparison Models Source: created for this study
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FEASIBLE AND DESIRABLE CHANGES
It is important to ensure that stakeholders reach out to one another with a view to forging a common understanding of areas of collaborative action in spite of their own differences. Need to understand that pursuing their different interests in a reckless manner can only lead to everyone being a loser. This is because of the broad overall inefficiencies that arise out of failure to work together. There is a need to improve coordination and reduce the level of mutual suspicion. Focus all stakeholders on a understanding of the power of coordinated action guided by a clearly define purpose and area of strategic focus.
Also important for all stakeholders to understand the gaps in knowledge that each one has that reduces level of effectiveness. A strategy to build required knowledge in a coordinated way needs to be put in place.
ACTION TO BE UNDERTAKEN Focus on areas of intervention that would overall seek to enhance capacity to improve effectiveness of the strategic deployment of foreign policy. These include:
1. Constantly clarify goals centred around the relationship between effectiveness of foreign
policy deployment and the improvement of the welfare of all citizens. 2. Communication to enhance coordination and strategic focus 3. Greater understanding of China
• Investment in training of Chinese • Build capacity in China studies (Economy, Politics, Culture) • Pool Public and Private Sector Resources
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APPENDIX C
APPENDIX C INTERVIEWS
ANNEXURE1: DATA FROM THE INTERVIEWS ( LEVEL 1 CODING )
INTERVIEWEE NO 1
Decisions not filtering to every department. No physical presence in China. Decisions not translated into plans. Decisions not translated into effective implementation. There is lack of strategic focus. Marketing that is Eurocentric. Lack of coordination at policy level. Department not working with Embassy in Beijing. Politics influence every activity in China. Dept sees itself as a separate entity. SA has good political standing in China. There exists good political will. China has a political commitment towards SA. Need to leverage political good will. We need better policy coordination. Messaging needs to be consistent. Co-ordination of financial resources. Efficient utilisation of resources. Satisfaction with low hits on website compared with Australia. Only 54000 tourists in 2008/2009.
INTERVIEWEE NO 2
Initially we had no economic operational plan. Actions were ad hoc. Ad hoc strategies and objectives. No overall strategy. Chinese always knew what they wanted from us. We did not anticipate Chinese accession to WTO. We granted them market economy status (MES) in 2004 without obtaining concessions. This was a strategic mistake. There was no reciprocity. We lacked strategic thinking in our engagement.
IPAP2 now presents some coherent framework. EDD brought a strategic dimension. We now have good plans and strategies. Need to put China within broader strategy of IPAP. NZ and Australia have good strategies. Weak capacity compared to our competitors. We need to think in an integrated way on trade policy. Need to work closely with private sector. We need to deal with uncertainty in the private sector. Coordination within government is a mixed bag. Some departments have intradepartmental coordination problems. Communication problems inter and intra departmentally. We look at world differently. Limitations with leadership, planning and organization. There are also inter organizational rivalry. Failure of some companies because of major cultural differences. Some failure due to arrogance. Need to understand the political structures and internal political dynamics. China must always know you have alternatives for effective leverage.
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INTERVIEWEE NO 3
Avoid contentious political issues. China’s core interest is the maintenance of its territorial integrity. China has muscle to respond if core interest is undermined. China needs SA as a unique African country. China respects the way SA is viewed by the world. China sees SA as a partner in a number of international issues. Should leverage warm relations between ANC and CCP. We have deployed inadequate human resources in China . Human resources do not correlate with the task. Our HR skewed towards political work and less for economic work. Our embassy has no capacity to deal with some strategic sectors e.g mining. Need a multipronged strategy. Some strategic sectors are overlooked. Elements of our private sector suspicious of government. Government has not done enough to assure the private sector. We have no systematic approach for coordination with private sector. Relationship with private sector ad hoc. We need to reassess our entire strategy.
INTERVIEWEE NO 4
We made the right decision by adopting the one China policy. China’s entry to the WTO was significant. China speaks with one voice. China coordinates effectively hence can make strategic tradeoffs. China has a powerful State Economic Planning department. We lack coordination. We are not able to make strategic tradeoffs. Government opens space for private sector. Sometimes private sector moves on its own. We need a China strategy. We should centralize coordination on China. Chinese play us one against the other. Size of Chinese mission in SA is huge. We need to capacitate our Ambassador to China. Chinese not shy to push their agenda forcefully. We need to understand Chinese cultural sensitivities. Chinese sensitive to saving face. We need to shape Chinese involvement in our region. We need a regional industrial strategy. Leverage political warmth to advance our business interests. We need to leverage R&D and S&T capacity in China.
INTERVIEWEE NO 5
We need to manage the tension between normative and commercial values. We do not have a China strategy. China is a country in transition. China is a fast transforming state. It is not possible to approach the Africa agenda as if there is no China. China wants to collaborate with SA in the continent. We have no proactive stance towards China. We have no bold investment strategy. Our policy instruments are scattered. Institutions not working together. SA companies not generally competitive. Lack of structured relationship with business hobbles ability to compete. No two way feedback between business and government. Business
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government relationship critical. Business executives outsourcing strategic engagement with government. There are perceived anti business attitudes in government.
INTERVIEWEE NO 6
Economic relations with China very important. One needs to engage China at a commercial level. China does not understand what SA wants. There is government business misalignment. SA engagement with China disjointed. In China there is a single point of entry into their government system. Our system of engagement which is a free for all is fatal. Our disjointedness weakens our position. We talk at cross purposes. Chinese are brilliant at playing people against each other. They are brilliant at sniffing out differences and weaknesses. The Chinese still see SA as the gateway to Africa. Chinese have faith in our governance systems. We must leverage successful Chinese companies in SA as our ambassadors to attract investment. We have not leveraged China optimally. SA lacks a commercial strategy. Chinese are loyal to those who have helped them.
INTERVIEWEE NO 7
Cultural aspect to the way the Chinese do business. Chinese work hard. They are persistent. Train permitting officers to enhance capacity. Outsourcing visa processing in Beijing to improve turnaround times. Place more senior immigration personnel in Beijing. Reciprocity arrangements with respect to migration. SA seen as a gateway to Africa. We lack coordination and common thought. We are not coherent. Coordination is quite critical.
INTERVIEWEE NO 8
Chinese often refer to their accession to the WTO as their second long march. Trade policy capacity in China is extraordinary. They have an extremely competent team. In the WTO they have dedicated people for everything. Coordination is paramount. We gave MES without any concessions. We miss possibilities because we are uncoordinated. When China moves they move together. Chinese always look for an advantage. We should strategically leverage our SOEs. We need to change strategy and target specific companies. We need to put more weight on investment promotion. We need to build capacity of local companies to export. Politically we need to strengthen ties with the South. Power is shifting from North to South. There is gap between Chinese political rhetoric and their economic engagement. Disappointed with our failure to establish an FTA. We should appreciate that Chinese economy is going up the value chain. We have not leveraged the significant investment in China by SA companies. China has huge capacity to deploy resources.
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INTERVIEWEE NO 9
Government plays a large role in the Chinese economy. Chinese civil service has always been more efficient than their private sector. Chinese public sector intellectually superior. Allocate best quality people to interact with the Chinese. Tradition of extreme punctuality. Tradition of precision. Chinese open to debate. Chinese are turned off by sloppiness. They do not respond well to aggressive behavior. They react to what they perceive as rudeness. If you are weak they will take advantage. Difficult to run a business in China with western managers. Chinese tend to honour their word. Always keep records of previous encounters as they do the same. To succeed do your homework. Listen politely. Pay attention to procedure. The Chinese tend to be comfortable with SA. We can provide an anchor as they explore the continent.
INTERVIEWEE NO 10
We are not coordinating well in China. We are not grasping S&T opportunities as China goes up the value chain. We are too short term in our thinking as a result miss opportunities. Hope the NPC will provide basis for long range planning. We are missing too many opportunities. Chinese are upgrading in the R&D area. We tend to be excited by what is achieve without appreciating the enormous opportunities. Use China for global positioning.
INTERVIEWEE NO 11
Everyday I learn something new about China. Takes time to appreciate all the intricacies. Culture plays a big role. Take the issue of circular versus linear logic. A lot of progress has been made. We need to establish think tanks focusing on China. Need to understand classical roots of Chinese culture. Chinese emphasise the family and nation and deemphasize the individual. We need to develop China specialists within government who understand the language. We need to tap on all the resources we have across the public-private divide. The Chinese can deploy the financier, the contractor and the managers all at once. We cannot do that easily because of our system. We have limited resources. We need to coordinate better in the continent to increase our leverage.
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INTERVIEWEE NO 12
China has desire to invest in African infrastructure. They have excess capacity. No colonial intentions. They are not aggressive. They are a gentle culture. Focus on personal and national harmony. Well organized and formal. They are process oriented. Pay attention to protocol and hierarchy. The Chinese do not understand what we want. Surprised by our lack of coordination. Other delegations even from Africa go to China better prepared. We could have upped protocol around the visit of the VP. Government suspicious of business. Our business consulted more by other governments on China.
INTERVIEWEE NO 13
Lack of direct flights due to misalignment. Coordination with other departments on visas a problem. Issues of crime keep on coming. Leverage the good political relations. Potential for future growth in China is huge. In general we have made a lot of progress in our relationship. China makes others respect us. Our targets we set with China are low.
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APPENDIX C
ANNEXURE 2: EMERGENT CATEGORIES (LEVEL 2 CODING )
CO-ORDINATION
Decisions not filtering to every department. Lack of co-ordination at policy level. Department (dot) not working with Embassy in Beijing. Dept (dot) sees itself as a separate entity. We need better policy coordination. Messaging needs to be consistent. Coordination of financial resources. We need to think in an integrated way on trade policy. Need to work closely with private sector. We need to deal with uncertainty in the private sector. Coordination within government is a mixed bag. Some departments have intradepartmental coordination problems. Communication problems inter and intra departmentally. There are also inter organizational rivalry. . Elements of our private sector suspicious of government. Government has not done enough to assure the private sector. We have no systematic approach for coordination with private sector. Relationship with private sector ad hoc.
China speaks with one voice. China coordinates effectively hence can make strategic tradeoffs. China has a powerful State Economic Planning department. We lack coordination. We are not able to make strategic tradeoffs. Government opens space for private sector. Sometimes private sector moves on its own. We should centralize coordination on China. Chinese play us one against the other. Our policy instruments are scattered. Institutions not working together. Lack of structured relationship with business hobbles ability to compete. No two way feedback between business and government. Business government relationship critical. There are perceived anti business attitudes in government. There is government business misalignment. SA engagement with China disjointed. In China there is a single point of entry into their government system. Our system of engagement which is a free for all is fatal. Our disjointedness weakens our position. We talk at cross purposes. Chinese are brilliant at playing people against each other. They are brilliant at sniffing out differences and weaknesses.
We lack coordination and common thought. We are not coherent. Coordination is quite critical. . Coordination is paramount. We gave MES without any concessions. We miss possibilities because we are uncoordinated. When China moves they move together. Chinese always look for an advantage. We need to tap on all the resources we have across the public-private divide. The Chinese can deploy the financier, the contractor and the managers all at once. We need to coordinate better in the continent to increase our leverage.
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CAPACITY
No physical presence in China. Efficient utilization of resources. Limitations with leadership, planning and organization. Weak capacity compared to our competitors. We have deployed inadequate human resources in China . Human resources do not correlate with the task. Our HR skewed towards political work and less for economic work. Our embassy has no capacity to deal with some strategic sectors e.g mining. Size of Chinese mission in SA huge. We need to capacitate our Ambassador to China. Train permitting officers to enhance capacity. Outsourcing visa processing in Beijing to improve turn-around times. Place more senior immigration personnel in Beijing.
Trade policy capacity in China is extraordinary. They have an extremely competent team. In the WTO they have dedicated people for everything. China has huge capacity to deploy resources. Chinese civil service has always been more efficient than their private sector. Chinese public sector intellectually superior. Allocate best quality people to interact with the Chinese.
STRATEGIC FOCUS
Decisions not translated into plans. Decisions not translated into effective implementation. There is lack of strategic focus. Marketing that is Eurocentric. Initially we had no economic operational plan. Actions were ad hoc. Ad hoc strategies and objectives. No overall strategy. Chinese always knew what they wanted from us. We did not anticipate Chinese accession to WTO. We granted them market economy status (MES) in 2004 without obtaining concessions. This was a strategic mistake. There was no reciprocity. We lacked strategic thinking in our engagement. IPAP2 now presents some coherent framework. EDD brought a strategic dimension. We now have good plans and strategies. Need to put China within broader strategy of IPAP. NZ and Australia have good strategies. China must always know you have alternatives for effective leverage. Need a multipronged strategy. We need to reassess our entire strategy. We need a China strategy. We need to leverage R&D and S&T capacity in China. We need to manage the tension between normative and commercial values. We have no proactive stance towards China. We have no bold investment strategy. Business executives outsourcing strategic engagement with government.
Economic relations with China very important. One needs to engage China at a commercial level. China does not understand what SA wants. We must leverage successful Chinese companies in SA as our ambassadors to attract investment. We have not leveraged China optimally. SA lacks a commercial strategy. . We should strategically leverage our SOEs. We need to change strategy and target specific companies. We need to put more weight on investment promotion. We need to build capacity of local companies to export. We should appreciate that Chinese economy is going up the value chain. We have not leveraged the significant investment in China by SA companies.
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POLITICAL FACTORS
Politics influence every activity in China. SA has good political standing in China. There exists good political will. China has a political commitment towards SA. Need to leverage political good will. Need to understand the political structures and internal political dynamics. Avoid contentious political issues. China’s core interest is the maintenance of its territorial integrity. China has muscle to respond if core interest is undermined. China needs SA as a unique African country. China respects the way SA is viewed by the world. China sees SA as a partner in a number of international issues. Should leverage warm relations between ANC and CCP.
We made the right decision by adopting the one China policy. China’s entry to the WTO was significant. We need to shape Chinese involvement in our region. We need a regional industrial strategy. Leverage political warmth to advance our business interests. China is a country in transition. China is a fast transforming state. It is not possible to approach the Africa agenda as if there is no China. China wants to collaborate with SA in the continent. The Chinese still see SA as the gateway to Africa. Chinese have faith in our governance systems. Politically we need to strengthen ties with the South. Power is shifting from North to South. There is gap between Chinese political rhetoric and their economic engagement. Government plays a large role in the Chinese economy.
LEVEL OF AMBITION
Satisfaction with low hits on website compared with Australia. Only 54000 tourists in 2008/2009. China makes others respect us. Our targets we set with China are low. We tend to be excited by what is achieve without appreciating the enormous opportunities. Use China for global positioning.
CULTURAL / PROCEDURAL FACTORS
We look at world differently. Failure of some companies because of major cultural differences. Some failure due to arrogance. Chinese not shy to push their agenda forcefully. We need to understand Chinese cultural sensitivities. Chinese sensitive to saving face. . Chinese are loyal to those who have helped them. Cultural aspect to the way the Chinese do business. Chinese work hard. They are persistent. .Tradition of extreme punctuality. Tradition of precision. Chinese open to debate. Chinese are turned off by sloppiness. They do not respond well to aggressive behaviour. They react to what they perceive as rudeness. If you are weak they will
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take advantage Difficult to run a business in China with western managers. Chinese tend to honour their word. Always keep records of previous encounters as they do the same. To succeed do your homework. Listen politely. Pay attention to procedure. Everyday I learn something new about China. Takes time to appreciate all the intricacies. Culture plays a big role. Take the issue of circular versus linear logic. A lot of progress has been made. We need to establish think tanks focusing on China. Need to understand classical roots of Chinese culture. Chinese emphasise the family and nation and deemphasize the individual. We could have upped protocol around the visit of the VP.
They are not aggressive. They are a gentle culture. Focus on personal and national harmony. Well organized and formal. They are process oriented. Pay attention to protocol and hierarchy
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APPENDIX C ANNEXURE 3: RESEARCH INTERVIEW LOG
NAME OF INTERVIEWEE DATE TIME LOCATION
RELEVANCE TO RESEARCH?
INFORMED ABOUT THE AIMS AND NATURE OF RESEARCH? *
INFORMED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL RISKS OF RESEARCH? **
Mr Kingsley Makhubela 1/10/2010 18h30
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE
DIRECTOR-GENERAL OF THE DEPARTMENT OF TOURISM YES YES
Dr Phil Mjwara 6/10/2010 07h30
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE
DIRECTOR-GENERAL OF THE DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY YES YES
Mr CA Basson 6/10/2010 17h00
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE
FORMER DIPLOMAT DEPLOYED TO CHINA - CURRENT CHIEF DIRECTOR: CENTRAL AND EAST ASIA, DIRCO YES YES
Amb N Ntshinga 7/10/2010 08h00 TELEPHONIC INTERVIEW
FORMER SOUTH AFRICAN AMBASSADOR TO THE PRC YES YES
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Mr Iqbal Sharma 7/10/2010 17h00
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE DDG: TISA - the dti YES YES
Dr Mxukisi Qobo 7/10/2010 17h30
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE
PROGRAMME HEAD: EEMERGING POWERS AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES, SAIIA YES YES
Dr Martyn Davies 8/10/2010 08h00
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE
DIRECTOR: CHINA-AFRICA NETWORK AND ASIA CORPORATE NETWORK; GORDON INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS YES YES
Mr Jacques de Vos 8/10/2010 16h00
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: CED PROMETHEUS YES YES
Mr Xavier Carim 11/10/2010 16h00
OR TAMBO BUILDING, RIETONDALE DDG: ITED, the dti YES YES
Mr Koos Bekker 13/10/2010 16h00 CAPE TOWN MIH NASPERS YES YES
Mr Cecil Sols 14/10/2010 08h00 CAPE TOWN
CD: DEPARTMENT OF HOME AFFAIRS YES YES
Mr Craig Bond 20/10/2010 09h00
TELEPHONIC INTERVIEW STANDARD BANK YES YES
Mr Kobus van der Wath
20/10/2010 10h00
JOHANNESBURG
CEO: THE BEIJING AXIS YES YES
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Ms Nolitha Fakude 26/10/2010 09h00 SANDTON SASOL YES YES
YES Amb January-Maclean
20/10/2010 12h00
JOHANNESBURG CEO: SA TOURISM YES
*Table 6.3
