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Dakota Bishop

IB Extended Essay – Economics

Advised by Fred Jenkins

IB Candidate Number 001433-0003

2/2/2015

Research question:

How has the appreciation of the Japanese yen relative to the United States dollar from 2012 to

2013 affected the sales of Honda and Toyota brand automobiles in the US during this time?

Word Count: 3749

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Abstract

Research Question

In any international market, the exchange rate between the currency of the producing country

and the currency of the consuming country has a major impact on the sales of any given good. In

recent years, Japan’s yen has been appreciating relative to the US dollar, which translates into

relatively higher costs for firms that operate in yen. This research seeks to answer the question:

How has the appreciation of the Japanese yen relative to the United States dollar from 2012 to

2013 affected the sales of Honda and Toyota brand automobiles in the US during this time?

Process of Investigation

Much of the investigation of this topic was conducted through data of historical exchange rates,

coupled with figures for Honda and Toyota’s automobile sales, from their respective company

profiles, through 2012 and 2013. Various online articles and databases were also consulted to

support and explain data trends that went against predictions based on economic theory.

Conclusion

Despite predictions of a reduction in sales of Honda and Toyota made automobiles in the US

with the appreciation of the Japanese yen, data shows that both firms experienced an increase in

both total revenue and profit from the beginning of their 2012 fiscal year to the end of their 2013

fiscal year. This unexpected growth can be attributed to a combination of consumer loyalty,

economies of scale, technological improvements to the goods, and the growing US automobile

market.

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Table of Contents

Title Page ………………………………………………………….…………………………1

Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………....2

Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………………….3

I. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………….….…...4

II. Theory………………………………………………………………….………………....4-8

A. Exchange Rates……………………………………………………….…………..4-6

B. Appreciation and Exporting Firms……………………………………….……….6-7

C. Price Elasticity of Demand……………………………………………………....7-8

III. Data……………………………………………………………………………………..8-10

A. Exchange Rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen…………………..8-9

B. Revenue and Income……………………………………………………………..9-10

IV. Trend Analysis…………………………………………………………………………..10-16

A. Consumer Loyalty……………………………………………………………......11

B. Elasticity Revisited……………………………………………………………….12-13

C. Economies of Scale………………………………………………………………13-14

D. Technological Improvements………………………………………………….....14-15

E. The US Automobile Market…………………………………………………..….15-16

V. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….16-18

VI. Works Cited…………………………………………………………………………….19

VII. Appendices …………………………………………………………………………….20-21

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I. Introduction

*all references to the “dollar” refer to the United States dollar*

Recently, the U.S. dollar has been losing value relative to the Japanese yen as explained

by a complex combination of economic factors. This changing value of currency has an impact

on the prices of goods exchanged between Japan and the U.S., and therefore affects total revenue

earned by firms in the respective foreign market – that is, the U.S. market for Japanese goods

and the Japanese market for U.S. goods. Specifically, the U.S. market for two Japanese car

brands, Honda and Toyota, between the beginning of their 2012 fiscal year and the end of their

2013 fiscal year, will be analyzed with respect to the changes in sales of these cars stemming

from the yen’s appreciation relative to the U.S. dollar

.

II. Theory

A. Exchange Rates

In order to understand the effects of fluctuating exchange rates, we must first understand

how they work and what causes the fluctuation. An exchange rate by definition is the value of

one currency relative to another – essentially, it is the price of one unit of foreign currency in

terms of another. These rates are determined in foreign exchange markets governed by the laws

of supply and demand.

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As visible

in the graph above, the rate of exchange for yen and U.S. dollars is determined by the

intersection of supply (S) - which derives from domestic (in this case, Japanese) demand for

foreign goods, services, and investment – and demand (D) – which derives from foreign demand

for domestic goods. In this model, either curve can shift due to changes in relative GDP growth

rate, interest rate, or price level, or shifts in tastes or speculations. For example, if more U.S.

citizens decide to travel to Japan, the demand curve for yen will shift rightward as shown above,

increasing the equilibrium dollar per yen rate from P to P1 and thus causing appreciation of the

yen.

Dramatic variations in exchange rates have a significant impact on a nation’s economy,

influencing domestic GDP and inflation, unemployment rate, and trade deficit. For this reason, it

is uncommon for a country to let its exchange rate float freely – that is, to let it be determined

solely by the market. Today, the most common mode of handling exchange rate – and therefore

controlling the economic factors it affects – is the managed exchange rate, used by Japan. With

this strategy, a country will allow its rate to float, but intervenes to change either supply or

demand if it deviates too dramatically. It is important to note that the United States is one of the

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few countries to use “floating” exchange rates today, meaning that the U.S. government very

rarely intervenes in the economy with the intent to influence USD exchange rate1.

B. Appreciation and Exporting Firms

The currently rising dollar per yen rate, also termed as the appreciation of the yen, lends

many advantages to the Japanese economy that might prompt Japan to facilitate it through their

exchange rate managing policies. A stronger currency allows for relatively cheaper imports,

which benefits consumers’ standard of living as well as firms that rely on imported factors of

production. Japan would also be able to easier alleviate a large foreign debt, specifically to the

U.S., if the yen grew in value relative to the dollar. However, according to economic theory,

appreciation is not beneficial to exporting firms. As the yen appreciates relative to the dollar,

prices of Japanese products and services rise compared to those from the U.S. with all other

factors remaining equal, since it now takes more dollars to equal one yen. Applying this model to

the U.S. market for automobiles, the price of Japanese made imported automobiles will rise

relative to the price of domestically produced automobiles, all other factors remaining equal.

Since Japan is a relatively small, highly importing nation, it makes sense that the

Japanese government would manage exchange rates to keep the yen at a high value to keep

prices low on the many important goods that they must import (i.e. agricultural products or

natural resources). As discussed in the previous paragraph, though, exporting firms would be

expected to sell less due to increased costs. However, to determine whether this will result in a

1 Stone, Mark, Harald Anderson, and Romain Veyrune. "Finance and Development." Finance & Development, March 2008. International Monetary Fund, 13 Mar. 2008. Web. 27 Jan. 2015. <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/basics.htm>.

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decrease in total revenue, price elasticity of demand of the exported automobiles must be

examined.

C. Price Elasticity of Demand (referred to from now on as “elasticity”)

According to the law of demand, as a product’s price increases, a lower quantity of it is

demanded by consumers. Generally, this lower quantity demanded is expected to hurt a firm

producing the good whose price has risen – in this case, Japanese made automobiles sold in the

United States of America. However, one more factor must be analyzed in order to make this

judgment: the product’s elasticity. Elasticity refers to the percentage change in quantity

demanded of a good as compared to the percentage change in its price. For an elastic good, the

percentage change in quantity demanded is always greater than the percentage change in price. A

product’s elasticity hinges on many factors, including price relative to income, necessity, and

availability of substitute or complementary goods.

The concept of elasticity can be demonstrated with a simple example. A ten percent price

increase in bottled water, from $1.00 to $1.10, would logically lead to a very small reduction in

how many are sold; bottled water is not very expensive and, while there are many substitutes,

water is a necessity. On the other hand, a ten percent increase in the price of a $300,000 house

represents an additional $30,000 the consumer must spend. In this example, bottled water is

relatively inelastic while a new house is extremely elastic. Because new cars are expensive

relative to consumers’ income, are not strictly necessary, and have many substitutes, they are

considered an elastic good. That is to say, a small price increase on a new car would lead to a

large decrease in sales as customers either decide to buy a used car, a less expensive or other

substitute car, or another mode of transportation.

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Examining the economic ramifications of the high elasticity of new automobiles

corroborates the expected decrease in total revenue of Honda and Toyota as their prices increase

due to the yen’s appreciation. The total revenue of a firm is equal to the price of its product

multiplied by the number of products sold. For an elastic good, the decrease in quantity

demanded (synonymous with quantity sold) outweighs the increase in price, meaning that total

revenue should fall.

III. Data

A. Exchange Rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen2

As of April 1st, 2012 (the beginning of the fiscal year for both Honda and Toyota), the

average bid exchange rate between dollars and yen was 82.30 dollars (USD) per yen (JPY). The

yen’s relative value fell to a short-term low of 77.85 dollars per yen in late September of 2012;

however, since that week, the yen has had a strong upward trend of appreciation, ending in

March 2013 at a rate of 94.32 dollars per yen, as shown below.

2 Historical Exchange Rates. Rep. OANDA, 1 Apr. 2014. Web. 14 Nov. 2014. <http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/>.

USD / JPY 2

Weeks of 4/1/2012 to 3/31/2013

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As illustrated, the yen has had a remarkable growth against the dollar in the examined

time period – over 12.7% appreciation in just two years. Since it now takes 12.7% more dollars

to buy an item with an otherwise unchanged price in yen, it is expected that less Japanese cars

will be sold in the U.S. in 2013 compared to 2012 due to the law of demand – that is, quantity

sold will decrease as price of these automobiles increases due to the appreciation of the yen. This

trend has a potential to devastate Japan’s exporting firms; “Numerous executives from almost all

of the Japanese automakers have stated that recent yen/dollar exchange rates have made

automotive manufacturing unsustainable in Japan”1. However, Honda and Toyota are far from

powerless in fighting this negative market condition.

B. Revenue and Income

HONDA MOTOR CO.3 2012 2013 Percent Change (2012-2013)

Total Revenue 7,948,095 9,877,947 +19.50%

Net Income 211,482 367,149 +42.40%

TOYOTA MOTOR CO.4 2012 2013 Percent Change (2012-2013)

Total Revenue 18,583,653 22,064,192 +18.70%

Net Income 355,627 1,320,888 +271.40%

3 "Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile." Datamonitor: 1-11. Datamonitor. Web. 2 June 2014. See Appendix 1.

4 "Toyota Motor Corporation Company Profile." Datamonitor: 1-11. Datamonitor. Web. 2 June 2014. See Appendix 2.

*Year refers to the total fiscal year (ends March 31 of given year), and all revenue and income figures are in millions of yen.*

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Both Honda and Toyota have experienced a large growth in total revenue and an even

more significant increase in net income from 2012 to 2013, despite the anticipated effects of the

appreciation of the yen. Yet there is further evidence against the expected trend – both firms’

year-end financial reports articulate a growth in sales specifically from North America, where a

significant portion of the market comes from the United States. Though the yen’s appreciation

increases relative price of production Japan, “Honda’s consolidated unit sales [of automobiles] in

North America increased 30.8% from the previous fiscal year”5 while Toyota’s sales similarly

rose 32.3% in the same region according to their 2013 report6.

IV. Trend Analysis

Clearly, the trend of growth in total revenue as well as income defies the expected decline

due to the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Even Honda Motor Co. acknowledges that their

“results of operations would be adversely affected by an appreciation of the Japanese yen against

other currencies, in particular the U.S. dollar.”4 Why then do we see such a growth when we

would expect the opposite? Therein lies the beauty of economics – it takes a complex interaction

of countless factors to reach a real-world result. These factors all have a different magnitude of

impact on the ultimate growth in sales of Honda and Toyota, yet all play an important role in the

final result. It is important to note that the average price of these automobiles sold in the U.S.

fluctuates beyond the effects of the firms’ costs, and therefore cannot be deemed directly related

to the appreciation of the yen. For example, a change in tastes toward higher-end cars would

5 "Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile." Marketline: 1-10. Marketline. Web. 2 June 2014.

6 "Toyota Motor Corporation Company Profile." Marketline: 1-11. Marketline. Web. 2 June 2014.

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drive up the average price of all Honda brand automobiles sold, though it does not relate to the

goal of this research. For this reason, possible explanations for the data trends will be discussed

without actual data of prices of Honda and Toyota automobiles.

A. Consumer Loyalty

Consumer loyalty refers to the perceived additional value of a good or service based on a

positive emotional experience associated with it. Both Honda and Toyota automobiles are widely

recognized as very reliable, practical, and economical cars by consumers and professionals alike.

This strong brand name gives both firms a very desirable market position, resulting in a

“significant competitive advantage … [in] international markets”7 In addition, both companies

have a loyalty rewards program, where dedicated consumers are rewarded with incentives like

lower interest rates on payments, discounts on maintenance, and other complimentary services

for continuing to buy the firm’s automobiles. The combination of the loyalty programs and a

general consumer approval of both firms, especially in the U.S., results in a very high level of

consumer loyalty regarding both Honda and Toyota automobiles, despite their high elasticity

primarily due to price (see “Elasticity Revisited” below). Taking this into account, it is very

probable that consumers would not mind a small increase in price coming from a likable,

reliable, consumer-friendly company that they have been buying from for many years.

Additionally, if consumers are willing to buy these cars as price increases, this would put upward

pressure on Honda and Toyota’s total revenue figures, though it would not reflect a true increase

in sales.

7 Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile

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While consumer loyalty is a likely contributing factor to a lack of falling sales of Honda

and Toyota automobiles in the U.S. despite the yen’s appreciation, it does not play a significant

role in the growth in sales that is actually present.

B. Elasticity Revisited

It has been established that Honda and Toyota are considered to make very reliable, safe

cars that have a high perceived value relative to price. Besides the aspect of consumer loyalty,

the general positive attitude toward these firms also contributes to their unexpected growth in

sales through elasticity. As discussed in the theory of elasticity section, automobiles are a prime

example of an elastic good due to a high price relative to income, a wide availability of

substitutes (other new cars), and a low perceived necessity (compared to food or shelter, for

example). The automobiles produced by Honda and Toyota may actually be less elastic than

others, however, when examined in the U.S. market. The World Bank reported 786 automobiles

per 1,000 people in the U.S. in 2011, one of the highest in the world.8 This supports the claim

that – at least in developed countries like the United States – automobiles have become more of a

necessity than a luxury, with an average of more than one car for every family in the United

States. And while there still exists a huge selection of substitute automobiles, there are few cars

that can rival Honda and Toyota in reliability, which is a huge factor in choosing a car as a

necessity. In fact, the top 3 most reliable car brands of 2013 according to Consumer Reports

were Acura, a brand name of Honda Motor Corporation, and Lexus and Toyota, both brand

names of Toyota Motor Corporation.9 All automobiles of course are still large purchases relative

8 Passenger Cars (per 1,000 People). Rep. N.p.: World Bank, 2014. The World Bank Data. Web. 14 Nov. 2014. <http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3>.

9 "Consumer Reports’ Car Reliability Survey Shows Brands Rising and Falling." Consumer Reports. Consumer Reports, 28 Oct. 2013. Web. 14 Dec. 2014.

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to income, but these factors lend Toyota and Honda produced automobiles a considerably lower

elasticity, meaning that while quantity of cars demanded must fall when price rises due to the

law of demand, it will not react as strongly to a higher price.

Like the analysis of consumer loyalty, this new idea of the relative inelasticity of Honda

and Toyota automobiles helps to explain their resiliency to drops in total revenue despite rising

prices stemming from the appreciation of the Japanese yen.

C. Economies of Scale

A final possible offset to increased costs due to appreciation is that Honda and Toyota,

being extremely large manufacturing firms, are seeing decreases in average cost to make an

automobile (known as average total cost or ATC) as they increase production and spread the

large fixed costs of manufacturing over more products. If this is the case, the firms are said to be

experiencing economies of scale. This is shown by the decreasing portion of the long-run

average total cost curve (abbreviated LRATC), where increasing quantity of goods produced

from Q1 to Q2 results in a decrease in cost from C1 to C2 as shown below. The section of the

curve to the left of Q2 (which is the minimum of the LRATC) all represents economies of scale.

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There is sound evidence that both Honda and Toyota are at the right size and in the right

position to be experiencing economies of scale. In Honda’s Company Profile, they report an

increase in operating income – that is, profit before interest and taxes – “primarily due to … a

decrease in fixed costs per unit as a result of production increase.”4 Similarly, “the increase in

operating profit of Toyota in FY2011 was favorably impacted by JPY300 billion increase in the

overall vehicle unit sales.”10 Both firms produced over 3.5 million vehicles in 2013 and have

manufacturing facilities throughout China, Japan, the US, Canada, the UK, South America, and

Southeast Asia. Because the significant fixed costs of establishing these facilities has already

been paid, it is likely that both firms can decrease ATC by increasing production in these

existing facilities.

D. Technological Improvements

Though difficult to measure quantitatively across time, technological improvements to a

good can increase its value without adding significant production cost and therefore without a

noticeable price increase in certain cases. Both Honda and Toyota note their “strong focus on

research and development” in their company profiles, putting roughly 5% of their total revenue

(a much larger number than their profit) into developing new technology each year.11 Not only

does this fact lay the foundation for positive expectations of the firms and thus increase, but it

also contributes to the value of their products. The relatively stable spending on research and

development has already been accounted for in the prices of Honda and Toyota automobiles over

many years and does not lead to any price spikes. However, once a new technology is developed

– for example, a new aluminum subframe that “contributes to an improvement in fuel economy

10 Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile11 Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile, Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile

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by reducing body weight by 25% compared to a conventional steel subframe,”4 as Honda

developed in 2013 – the advancement may be applied to all goods created thereafter, increasing

the value of the good without a substantial increase in cost of production. The improved good –

the lighter automobile in this case – can be sold at a higher price without a drop in quantity sold

since the technological improvement supports the increase in price. Therefore, it is possible that

the many technological improvements made to Honda and Toyota automobiles between 2012

and 2013 justify their growing sales despite the prices increases stemming from the Yen’s

appreciation.

E. The US Automobile Market

While consumer loyalty and relative inelasticity prevent Honda’s and Toyota’s sales from

falling as the yen appreciates, it is likely that the condition of the U.S. automobile market is a

large contributing factor to the growth in sales that the data supports. In a table of compiled

automobile sales in the U.S. by every automotive firm that sells there12, the data is clear: the total

number of automobiles sold within the United States rose from 14,492,398 in 2012 to 15,582,136

in 2013, an increase of over 1 billion (nearly 7%) in just one calendar year. As the market for all

types of cars in the U.S. expands, it is not surprising to find a similar and even accentuated

growth in purchases of imported Honda and Toyota automobiles considering the positive

consumer attitude toward these manufacturers specifically, as shown in the following chart.13

12 Szakaly, Steven, ed. "Annual Financial Profile of America's Franchised New-Car Dealerships." NADA Data 2014 (2014): 5-9. NADA.org. National Automobile Dealer's Association, 28 May 2014. Web. 7 Jan. 2015. <http://www.nada.org/NR/rdonlyres/DF6547D8-C037-4D2E-BD77-A730EBC830EB/0/NADA_Data_2014_05282014.pdf>.

13 See Appendix 3 for full chart.

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Additionally, as cars become more of a necessity in the US as discussed in “Elasticity

Revisited,” the US automobile market becomes even more attractive to Honda and Toyota. Since

both firms have a focus on producing economically practical cars for the average consumer

(versus luxury or sports cars), those who are looking for a car as a necessity are naturally drawn

to Honda and Toyota automobiles, where they can get a trusted, reliable car with relatively low

price and cost to own. For these reasons, it is likely that the growth in the US automobile market

impacts these two firms more than the average automobile producer, contributing a notable

amount to their increases in total revenue.

V. Conclusion

When considering economic theory of exchange rates, the appreciation of the yen relative

to the dollar is predicted to have an adverse effect on Honda’s and Toyota’s automobile sales in

the US because it increases relative cost to firms that operate primarily in yen, namely Honda

Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corporation. Though data shows significant increase in the dollar

per yen value from 2012 to 2013, the anticipated effect of this appreciation is not supported by

Source: "Annual Financial Profile of America's Franchised New-Car Dealerships."

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data of Honda and Toyota total revenue and net income changes over the same period of time.

The 12.7% appreciation, translating to a 12.7% increase in relative cost, was accompanied by a

near 20% increase in total revenue by both firms, with accentuated (roughly 30%) increases in

total revenue from operations in North America.

There are two types of factors that have contributed to the surprising trend of growing

revenue. First are those factors that diminish the possible decreases in revenue as costs rise.

Consumer loyalty and the strong brand image both Honda and Toyota possess in the US are very

likely to help keep sales reasonably stable despite cost and therefore price increases. The relative

inelasticity of Honda and Toyota automobiles as compared to other automobiles with a lesser

degree of consumer loyalty and brand strength also diminishes the inescapable loss of total

revenue as the price of an elastic good increases. Probable economies of scale experienced by

both firms further offsets appreciation-induced cost increases as ATC can be reduced by

increasing production. The second type of factor encompasses the contributors to the increase in

total revenue, rather than those that explain just the absence of a decline. Technological

improvements support increasing prices by increasing the intrinsic value of a good, and there has

been a multitude of technological improvements made by Honda and Toyota in recent years;

however, it is not likely that these improvements alone account for the staggering upsurge in the

firms’ revenues. The most probable factor contributing to the trend is the booming US

automobile market. When cars have become a necessity for most, the huge growth in automobile

sales is logically emphasized even further in those brands of best value to consumers, Honda and

Toyota being two of the best value car brands in the world.

In short, while Japanese car sales in the US – from Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor

Corporation - are expected to decrease with the yen’s appreciation relative to the dollar, the

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actual result is a healthy increase in both firms’ total revenue, which can be attributed to

consumer loyalty, relative inelasticity due to strong brand name, economies of scale,

technological improvements, and the growing condition of the US automobile market.

Works Cited

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"Consumer Reports’ Car Reliability Survey Shows Brands Rising and Falling." Consumer Reports. Consumer Reports, 28 Oct. 2013. Web. 14 Dec. 2014. <http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2013/10/2013-consumer-reports-reliability-survey/index.htm>.

Historical Exchange Rates. Rep. OANDA, 1 Apr. 2014. Web. 14 Nov. 2014. <http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/>.

"Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile." Datamonitor: 1-11. Datamonitor. Web. 2 June 2014.

"Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Company Profile." Marketline: 1-10. Marketline. Web. 2 June 2014.

Passenger Cars (per 1,000 People). Rep. N.p.: World Bank, 2014. The World Bank Data. Web. 14 Nov. 2014. <http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3>.

"Toyota Motor Corporation Company Profile." Datamonitor: 1-11. Datamonitor. Web. 2 June 2014.

"Toyota Motor Corporation Company Profile." Marketline: 1-11. Marketline. Web. 2 June 2014.

McAlinden, Sean P., Ph.D., and Yen Chen. "Center for Automotive Research." The Effects a U.S. Free Trade Agreement with Japan Would Have on the U.S. Automotive Industry (2012): 8-10. CarGroup. Center for Automotive Research, 21 Aug. 2012. Web. 14 Oct. 2014. <http://www.cargroup.org/assets/files/the_effects_a_u.s._free_trade_agreement_with_japan_would_have_on_the_u.s._automotive_industry2.pdf>.

Stone, Mark, Harald Anderson, and Romain Veyrune. "Finance and Development." Finance & Development, March 2008. International Monetary Fund, 13 Mar. 2008. Web. 27 Jan. 2015. <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/03/basics.htm>.

Szakaly, Steven, ed. "Annual Financial Profile of America's Franchised New-Car Dealerships." NADA Data 2014 (2014): 5-9. NADA.org. National Automobile Dealer's Association, 28 May 2014. Web. 7 Jan. 2015. <http://www.nada.org/NR/rdonlyres/DF6547D8-C037-4D2E-BD77-A730EBC830EB/0/NADA_Data_2014_05282014.pdf>.

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Appendices

Appendix 1 – Figures for Honda Motor Co., Ltd.

Appendix 2 – Figures for Toyota Motor Co., Ltd.

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Appendix 3 - New-vehicle sales and market share, by manufacturer in US