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EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES Challenges and oportunities. Eduardo Delgado Assad Embrapa Information Technology [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK
MANAGEMENT MARKETS FOR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES
Challenges and oportunities
Eduardo Delgado AssadEmbrapa Information Technology
WRMA WMO WORLD BANK WFP
Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Principal climatic events
stormdrought
hail frost
High Temperaturewind
Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Hurricane Catarina
• Saturday, March 27, 2004 - Winds of 150km/h and waves with 5 m height reached Torres, in Rio Grande do Sul, destroying twenty one thousand of houses, with many people injured and homeless
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento PiracicabaPiracicaba
20062006
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Cepagri/Unicamp
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Main problems:
- High variability in the rain regimen - Sensible Regions of the influences of El Nino, La Nina - Low density of official meteorological data.- losses provoked by droughts,storms, high and low T
Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento High rates of losses
Product S. PAULO BAHIA NORDESTE
Rice 30% 34% 47%
Bean 21% 34% 41%
Maize 16% 37% 71%
Soybean 16% 29% -
Irrigated soybean
- - 32%
Cotton 22% 22% 81%
Castor bean - - 87%
Harvests 91/92 e 92/93
Needs principally rain and temperature data.
Assad et al.(Embrapa e Unicamp) Geneve 05-07/2007
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
AgrometeorologicalAgrometeorological MonitoringMonitoring
www.agritempo.gov.brwww.agritempo.gov.br
AgrometeorologicalAgrometeorological MonitoringMonitoring
www.agritempo.gov.brwww.agritempo.gov.br
Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Monitoring Agromet System - AGRITEMPO
PrincipalCharacteristic
Data base areFree after August2002 (T,P)
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Real Stations - Agritempo
INMETCPTECUDs EmbrapaLamepe/ItepCemigCooxupéSimeparFepagroEpagriDep. Hidr.ALIPGOUnicampUSPInst. Flor.UnespCDVale
ParceirosParceiros
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Virtual Stations- Agritempo
Zullo Jr., J. et al. (Unicamp e Embrapa) Piracicaba (SP), 13/07/2007
T max, TminQuantitatif
RainQualitatif (binary)Yes or not
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
-
10.000.000
20.000.000
30.000.000
40.000.000
50.000.000
60.000.000
2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008
Safra Verão Safra Inverno (*)
Evolution of agricultural insurance contracts In R$. 1 real = 0.5 US$
* Losses ~6% Source: Aliança Insurance of Brazil
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Losses by frost in São Paulo State coffee production
Area production 240.000 hectaresCosts production = US$ 120 millionsExpected benefits with weather forecast frost is efficient in 50% = US$ 40 milions.
custosmeteor.pptcustosmeteor.ppt
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Principal results
Climatic risk zoning
Brazil:Brazil:Average Corn Yield before climatic risks zoning:1991 a 1995 = 2564 Kg/haAverage Corn Yield after climatic risks zoning:1996 e 2003 = 2961 Kg/ha .................15%Average soybean Yield before climatic risks zoning: 1991 a 1995 = 1808 Kg/haAverage soybean Yield after climatic risks zoning: 1996 e 2003 = 2744 Kg/ha..................26%
(
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Global Data base: Temperature, rain
Imagery Technology:
Research to estimate rain, soil humidityand Real Evapotranspiration.
Combine high spectral with high temporal resolution (1-3 days, 500 m)
Common areas for climate/agroclimate research:Crop yields, soil humidity, forecast of extremes events, forecast models adapted to agriculture 10,15 and 30 days. Combine Meta-models with local models
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Horizontal and vertical resolution
Frequency (observing cycle)
Min and Max Years of historical records
Need for real- (or nearly real- time observations)
Delay in availability
Level of Quality Assurance Meta Data
Data improvements - Filling gaps- Homogen-ization
surface air temperature
40 Km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required
Surface pressure
Wind (Speed and Direction)
2/10 m daily 15-30 yes 10 min high required required
Rainfall 20 km daily 15-30 yes 10 min high required required
Snow cover, depth and water equivalent
Humidity 40 Km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required
Surface vegetation type and cover
500 m 10 days 10 years N 1 day high required
Cloud cover 500 m 10 days 10 years N 1 day high required
Soil moisture 500 m 1 day 15-30 N 1 day high required
Soil Temperature 500 m 10 days 10 years N 1 day high required
Snow melt (Run off)
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e AbastecimentoFrost 1 km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required
Haillocal
Surface water discharge
Ground Water storage and fluxes
Evaporation 40 Km daily 15 - 30 Yes 10 min high required required
Sea surface temperature
Wave height, direction and period
Below sea surface (boundary layer)
temperature
Tropical Cyclone (Path, land fall
location, circumference of
damaging wind, wind direction and speed,
etc.)
Other (please specify)
M inistér io da Agr icultura,Pecuár ia e Abastecimento
Thanks