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© 2010 CB Richard Ellis Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
Edmonton Real Estate Forum Edmonton Real Estate Forum
“Investment Activity in Edmonton: An Outlook” “Investment Activity in Edmonton: An Outlook”
Source: CB Richard Ellis*Office Vacancy; Industrial Availability
Vacancy: Canadian Pain–US Nightmare
CANADA
USA
Office – 18.8%Industrial – 12.3%
Office – 20.5%Industrial – 15.2%
Office – 20.6%Industrial – 12.7%
Office – 14.1%Industrial – 14.6%
Office – 12.1%Industrial – 6.5%
Office – 9.1%Industrial – 8.6%
Canadian Investment Transactions ($B)
Source: CB Richard Ellis Limited/RealNet Canada
Property Type 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Office $4.1 $5.4 $4.4 $10.3 $6.1 $2.5
Industrial $3.4 $4.1 $7.2 $5.8 $4.4 $2.7
Retail $4.0 $4.1 $4.0 $4.4 $3.2 $2.6
Multi-Res $2.9 $3.0 $3.5 $4.4 $3.2 $2.4
Land $2.5 $2.4 $3.9 $4.6 $4.2 $2.6
Hotel $0.3 $0.8 $1.3 $2.6 $0.4 $0.2
Total $17.3 $19.8 $24.2 $32.2 $21.4 $13.0
Have Cap Rates Peaked?
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1Q092Q093Q094Q091Q10
Office - CBD A Industrial - A & B Retail - Neighbourhood Multi-Res - B
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Who Bought in 2009?
Buyers Office Industrial Retail Multi-Res
Private/Syndicates 37% 88% 57% 74%Foreign 18% 0% 1% 2%Pension Fund/ Advisor 2% 4% 4% 2%REITs/REOCs 27% 1% 21% 10%Institutions 14% 6% 12% 12%
Opportunity Funds 2% 2% 5% 1%
Source: CB Richard Ellis Limited/RealNet Canada
National Office Market
10.4%9.9%10.8%
-6,000
-3,000
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F
SF (0
00s)
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate (R)
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Edmonton Office
Source: CB Richard Ellis
14.3%
9.5%
10.7%
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F2011F
SF (0
00s)
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Absorption New Supply Vacancy Rate (R)
National Industrial Market
7.7%8.1%
3.5%
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
SF (0
00s)
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
Absorption New Supply Availability Rate (R)
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Edmonton Industrial MarketCompletions and Absorption (000 sf)
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,00019
96
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Availability Rate (%)
Absorption New Supply Availability Rate
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Alberta InvestmentTotal Alberta Major Developments$232,747,100,000
National Multi-Residential Market
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010F
Ave
rage
Mon
thly
Ren
t
0
2
4
6
8
10
Vaca
ncy
Rate
(%)
Average Rent Vacancy
Source: CB Richard Ellis, CMHC
National Retail MarketCompletions and Absorption (000 sf)
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,00019
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
0
2
4
6
8
Vacancy Rate (%)
Absorption New Supply Availability Rate
Source: CB Richard Ellis
© 2010 CB Richard Ellis Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
Edmonton Real Estate Forum Edmonton Real Estate Forum
“Investment Activity in Edmonton: An Outlook” “Investment Activity in Edmonton: An Outlook”
