Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Mahamoud Islam +852.3665.8989.
Ludovic Subran +33.1.84.11.53.99
Figure 1: USD denominated global trade, China and US imports growth (3 mon-
ths moving average y/y, %)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
13 14 15 16 17
China imports
United States imports
World Trade
Figure 2: Real GDP growth forecasts and contributions in China
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
17 18 19 20
Changes in inventories
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Real GDP growth and contributions
Figure 3: Private consumption (USD bn)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
China
United States
1 President Xi’s recent political call for a more open economy echoes a gradual opening of the Chinese market for investors and exporters alike, which is confirmed by the reduction by a third YTD of the
number of protectionist measures. Note that consumer goods are often spared while harmful trade
restrictions often focus on industrial goods (chemicals, metals), according to Global Trade Alert. 2 The last 10-point bilateral trade agreement points to that direction: China agreed to open its market for
specific US corporates (beef and LNG exporters, credit card providers and rating agencies); and the US made concessions on poultry imports from China, and promised fair treatment of Chinese banks in the
US. While this secondary (the bulk of China-US trade is concentrated in Electronic and Electrical), it
sends positive signals to investors and corporates worried by a trade war between the two nations.
Figure 4: Manufacturing 2025 key sectors
China Manufacturing 2025 - top priority sectors
Next generation information technology
High-end numerical control (automation) and robotics
Aerospace
Ocean engineering and high-tech shipping
Advanced rapid transit (metro, light rail)
Energy-efficient and new energy vehicles
Electrical power equipment
Agricultural equipment
New materials
Biotechnology and high-tech medical devices
Figure 5: China’s policy uncertainty index and RMB per USD
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
12 13 14 15 16 17
Policy uncertainty Index(left axis)
RMB per USD (right)
Figure 6: China’s imports of consumer goods (2005-2015 growth average, %)
28.6
25.824.1 23.7
23.4
15.614.0
12.510.2
9.1 8.2 7.2 7.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Cars
and
cycle
s
Be
vera
ges
Ph
arm
aceuticals
Cere
al pro
ducts
Pre
serv
ed fru
its
Clo
ckm
akin
g
Tota
l consum
er
goods
Toiletr
ies
Clo
thin
g
Optics
Manufa
ctu
red tobaccos
Dom
estic e
lectr
ical appliances
Consum
er
ele
ctr
onic
s
Figure 7: Country’s exports of consumer goods to China and expenditures on Re-search and Development (% GDP)
Japan
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Bangladesh
United States
Germany
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
World
New Zealand
Portugal
Sri Lanka
Malaysia
Ireland
Denmark
Australia
France
Italy
Singapore
Sweden
Viet NamPakistan
Austria
Netherlands
Spain
Cambodia, Lao PDR
Hong Kong (6.8;0.7)
Taiwan (5.1;3.1)
South Korea (4.5;4.3)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Re
se
arc
h a
nd
de
ve
lop
me
nt e
xp
en
ditu
re (
% o
f G
DP
)
Exports of consumer goods to China (in %of country's total exports)
5%//
Figure 8: China’s outward direct investment* and import growth average (2010-
2015)
Bangladesh
Cambodia
India
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Malaysia
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Nepal
Philippines
Myanmar
Tajikistan
Thailand
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Georgia
VietnamUkraine
Mongolia
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Ch
ina
's N
et
OD
I g
row
th
China's imports growth
The Allianz Group is one of the world's leading insurers and asset managers with more than 86 million
retail and corporate customers. Allianz customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate
insurance services, ranging from property, life and health insurance to assistance services to credit
insurance and global business insurance. Allianz is one of the wo rld’s largest investors, managing over
650 billion euros on behalf of its insurance customers while our asset managers Allianz Global Investors
and PIMCO manage an additional 1.3 trillion euros of third-party assets. Thanks to our systematic
integration of ecological and social criteria in our business processes and investment decisions, we hold a
leading position in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. In 2016, over 140,000 employees in more than
70 countries achieved total revenue of 122 billion euros and an operating profit of 11 billion euros for the
group.
Hermes is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of
bonding, guarantees and collections. With more than 100 years of experience, the company offers
business-to-business (B2B) clients financial services to support cash and trade receivables management.
Its proprietary intelligence network tracks and analyzes daily changes in corporate solvency among small,
medium and multinational companies active in markets representing 92% of global GDP. Headquartered in
Paris, the company is present in over 50 countries with 5,800+ employees. Euler Hermes is a subsidiary of
Allianz, listed on Euronext Paris (ELE.PA) and rated AA- by Standard & Poor’s and Dagong Europe. The
company posted a consolidated turnover of €2.6 billion in 2016 and insured global business transactions
for €883 billion in exposure at the end of 2016. Further information: www.eulerhermes.com, LinkedIn or
Twitter @eulerhermes.
These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of future expe ctations and other
forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve
known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially
from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.
Such deviations may arise due to, without limitation, (i) changes of the general ec onomic conditions and
competitive situation, particularly in the Allianz Group's core business and core markets, (ii) performance
of financial markets (particularly market volatility, liquidity and credit events), (iii) frequency and severity
of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (iv)
mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) particularly in the banking business,
the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) cu rrency exchange rates including the euro/US-
dollar exchange rate, (ix) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (x) the impact of
acquisitions, including related integration issues, and reorganization measures, and (xi) general
competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors
may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrori st activities and their consequences.
The company assumes no obligation to update any information or forward -looking statement contained
herein, save for any information required to be disclosed by law.