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Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee
Idaho Department of LaborCommunications and Research
Jan. 3, 2013
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
MichiganOregon
MinnesotaIndiana
VermontWisconsinTennessee
OhioSouth Carolina
AlabamaMissouri
MassachusettsKentucky
New HampshireOklahoma
KansasUtah
MaineVirginia
South DakotaDelaware
North DakotaUS
WyomingArizona
New YorkMarylandNebraska
HawaiiWashington
AlaskaIowa
ColoradoIllinois
GeorgiaPennsylvaniaWest Virginia
North CarolinaFlorida
New JerseyLouisianaCalifornia
Rhode IslandTexas
ConnecticutArkansas
New MexicoDistrict of Columbia
MontanaIdaho
MississippiNevada
Percentage-Point Change in Unemployment RateJune 2009 – July 2011
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5
New JerseyNew York
New HampshireConnecticut
South DakotaPennsylvania
MaineVermont
North DakotaColoradoMarylandDelaware
West VirginiaAlaska
NebraskaMassachusetts
VirginiaWisconsin
MinnesotaWyoming
Rhode IslandOklahoma
IowaOregonIndiana
ArkansasMontana
New MexicoKansas
USIllinois
GeorgiaKentuckyLouisiana
HawaiiWashington
North CarolinaMichiganAlabama
UtahArizona
TennesseeMissouri
TexasCalifornia
DCOhio
IdahoSouth Carolina
MississippiFlorida
Nevada
Percentage PointChange inUnemployment RateJuly 2011 – November 2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Long-Term Unemployed
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Laid-Off Workers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Discouraged Workers
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2
20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Involuntary Part-Time Workers
$224,444,385
$402,754,456
$292,292,824 $222,614,233
$176,660,001
$21,768,123
$240,220,630
$331,671,594
$195,410,252
$118,294,134
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Idaho Unemployment Insurance Benefits
State Federal
81,087
117,020 115,05398,017
79,865
10,269
42,971 51,717
41,111
32,107
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Individual Workers Receiving Jobless Benefits
Regular Extended
Labor Force
756,757
LaborForce
752,209
LaborForce
763,498LaborForce
770,639
LaborForce
777,800
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
6/1/
1972
5/1/
1973
4/1/
1974
3/1/
1975
2/1/
1976
1/1/
1977
12/1
/197
711
/1/1
978
10/1
/197
99/
1/19
808/
1/19
817/
1/19
826/
1/19
835/
1/19
844/
1/19
853/
1/19
862/
1/19
871/
1/19
8812
/1/1
988
11/1
/198
910
/1/1
990
9/1/
1991
8/1/
1992
7/1/
1993
6/1/
1994
5/1/
1995
4/1/
1996
3/1/
1997
2/1/
1998
1/1/
1999
12/1
/199
911
/1/2
000
10/1
/200
19/
1/20
028/
1/20
037/
1/20
046/
1/20
055/
1/20
064/
1/20
073/
1/20
082/
1/20
091/
1/20
1012
/1/2
010
11/1
/201
110
/1/2
012
Idaho Exhaustion Rate 1972-2012
August 2008 759,932
May 2009 750,859
May 2012782,030
November 2012774,585
720,000
730,000
740,000
750,000
760,000
770,000
780,000
790,000
Jan
Mar
May Ju
lSe
pN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lSe
pN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lSe
pN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lSe
pN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lSe
pN
ov Jan
Mar
May Ju
lSe
pN
ov
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Idaho's Monthly Labor ForceSeasonally Adjusted
245,662
172,000
229,364
141,108
183,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
New Hires
71.6%70.8%
64%59.1%
53%51.4%
51.2%50.7%
50.4%49.8%
49.3%47.5%
46%45.2%
44.3%43.2%
43%42.9%42.8%
42.8%42.6%
42.5%41.9%
41.7%40.2%
39.2%38.4%
38.4%37.6%
36.2%35.9%
33.8%33.2%
32.6%31.5%
30.7%30.5%
29.5% 29.1%
28.3%27.4%
26.9%26%
25.3%22%
21.9%17.3%
15%14.8%
12%9.6%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
North DakotaMichigan
OhioMinnesota
IdahoIndiana
MissouriFlorida
KentuckyWisconsinTennesseeOklahoma
South CarolinaTexas
HawaiiIowa
USIllinois
North CarolinaMississippi
OregonSouth DakotaWest Virginia
New HampshireCaliforniaWyoming
ArizonaKansas
NebraskaGeorgia
MassachusettsLouisiana
WashingtonPennsylvaniaRhode Island
MontanaArkansasAlabama
MaineVermont
New MexicoDelawareColorado
UtahNevadaAlaska
VirginiaNew Jersey
New YorkMaryland
Connecticut
Oct 2012 Nov 2009
Number of UnemployedWorkers Per Posted
Job OpeningNovember 2009
October 2012
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
North DakotaDistrict of Columbia
TexasMichigan
UtahIndiana
KentuckyNew York
AlaskaTennesseeOklahoma
MassachusettsOhio
LouisianaSouth Carolina
MinnesotaVermontColorado
VirginiaWashington
PennsylvaniaSouth Dakota
CaliforniaMarylandNebraska
OregonNorth Carolina
GeorgiaFlorida
WyomingArizonaIllinois
IowaWest Virginia
DelawareArkansas
HawaiiMontana
KansasIdaho
New JerseyConnecticut
New HampshireMaine
WisconsinRhode Island
AlabamaMississippi
NevadaNew Mexico
Missouri
Percentage ChangeIn Nonfarm JobsJune 2009-June 2012Idaho in Red, Border States in Green
669,500
610,500
620,400
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000JA
NM
ARM
AY JUL
SEP
NO
VJA
NM
ARM
AY JUL
SEP
NO
VJA
NM
ARM
AY JUL
SEP
NO
VJA
NM
ARM
AY JUL
SEP
NO
VJA
NM
ARM
AY JUL
SEP
NO
VJA
NM
ARM
AY JUL
SEP
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Monthly Idaho Nonfarm Jobs
Recession
April 2008
July 2009
October 2010
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
JAN
MAR
MAY JU
LSE
PN
OV
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Idaho Nonfarm Jobs
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000
Private Jobs
All Jobs
US Jobs June 2007
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000
Private Jobs
All Jobs
US Jobs June 2010
-5.6%
-7.2%
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000
Private Jobs
All Jobs
US Jobs June 2012
2.4%
3.6%
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000
TOTAL PRIVATE
TOTAL JOBS
Idaho Jobs June 2007
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000
TOTAL PRIVATE
TOTAL JOBS
Idaho Jobs June 2010
-8.8%
-11.1%
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000
TOTAL PRIVATE
TOTAL JOBS
Idaho Jobs June 2012
1.6%
2.4%
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Idaho Goods Producing Sector June 2007
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Idaho Goods Producing Sector June 2010
-29.7
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Idaho Goods Producing Sector June 2012
1.4%
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000
PRIVATE SERVICES
ALL SERVICES
Idaho Service Sector June 2010
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000
PRIVATE SERVICES
ALL SERVICES
Idaho Service Sector June 2010
-3.9%
-5.5%
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000
PRIVATE SERVICES
ALL SERVICES
Idaho Service Sector June 2012
1.6%
2.6%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Idaho Goods, Services Jobs
Goods Service
1990 Average Wage
$18,234
2011 Average Wage
$33,766
1990Average Wage
$23,791
2011 Average Wage
$43,784
$22.27Q3 2008
$20.77Q1 2010
$22.04Q2 2012
$19.00
$19.50
$20.00
$20.50
$21.00
$21.50
$22.00
$22.50
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Billions
Idaho WagesAnnualized on a Quarterly Basis
$5.76Q4 2007
$4.46Q1 2010
$4.73Q1 2012
$4.00
$4.20
$4.40
$4.60
$4.80
$5.00
$5.20
$5.40
$5.60
$5.80
$6.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Billions
Goods Production Wages Annualized on a Quarterly Basis
$6.3BillionQ1 2008
$4.8 BillionQ1 2009
$6.4BillionQ4 2011
$6.8BillionQ2 2012
$0
$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Idaho Business Profits Annualized on a Quarterly Basis
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Idaho Median Wage as Percent of National Median Wage
Ranked 34th
Ranked43rd
0.7%
0.9%
-0.6%
0.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.7%
2.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
0.7%
3.8%
1.3%
1.5%
2.1%
0.4%
1.3%
2.2%
2.0%
1.3%
3.7%
2.0%
-1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5%
Local Gvt
State Gvt
Federal Gvt
Other services
Leisure, Hospitality
Health Care, Social Assistance inc Gvt
Education Services inc Gvt
All Other Professional, Bus Services
Administrative, Support, Waste Services
Financial Activities
Information
All Other Trans, Warehousing, Utilities
Truck Transportation
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
All Other Mfg
Computer, Electronic Mfg
Wood Product Mfg
Food Mfg
Construction
Mining, Forestry, Logging)
Agriculture
Self-Employed, Unpaid Family
Idaho Job ProjectionsPercentage Change Mid-2012 to Mid-2014
397
252
-156
176
2,951
2,967
582
532
1,566
436
-40
153
694
1,905
814
1,016
101
134
650
1,169
97
1,641
2,492
-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Local Gvt
State Gvt
Federal Gvt
Other services
Leisure, Hospitality
Health Care, Social Assistance inc Gvt
Education Services inc Gvt
All Other Professional, Bus Services
Administrative, Support, Waste Services
Financial Activities
Information
All Other Trans, Warehousing, Utilities
Truck Transportation
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
All Other Mfg
Computer, Electronic Mfg
Wood Product Mfg
Food Mfg
Construction
Mining, Forestry, Logging)
Agriculture
Self-Employed, Unpaid Family
Idaho Job ProjectionsNumeric Change Mid-2012 to Mid-2014
Questions?
Thank You
U.S-Idaho Comparison Of Key Economic Indicators
U.S.-Idaho ComparisonOf Key
Economic Indicators
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in Labor Force From 2005
Idaho U.S.
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in Employment From 2005
Idaho U.S.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in Unemployment from 2005
Idaho U.S.
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in Jobs From 2005
Idaho U.S.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Idaho U.S.
Percentage Change in Personal IncomeFrom 2005
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in WagesFrom 2005
Idaho U.S.
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in Profits From 2005
Idaho U.S.
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage Change in Average Wage From 2005
Idaho U.S.
87.6%
75.5%74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Idaho Average Wage as % Of U.S. Average Wage
38
48
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Rank of Idaho’s Average Wage Among All States
10.4%
19.7%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
AlaskaMichigan
West VirginiaOhio
IndianaOklahoma
IdahoMontanaKentuckyMissouri
KansasNevada
AlabamaUtah
WyomingWisconsin
New MexicoIowa
TennesseeHawaii
South CarolinaArkansas
MaineNebraska
MississippiVermont
PennsylvaniaMinnesota
ArizonaFlorida
LouisianaOregon
South DakotaUnited States
IllinoisTexas
DelawareColorado
GeorgiaNorth Carolina
CaliforniaNew Jersey
WashingtonNew Hampshire
New YorkNorth DakotaRhode IslandConnecticut
VirginiaMaryland
MassachusettsDistrict of Columbia
Percentage ChangeIn 2011 Average WageFrom Inflation-Adjusted1969 Average Wage
93.8%
76.8%
79.1%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Idaho Per Capita Income As % Of U.S. Per Capita Income
31
50
30
35
40
45
50
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Rank of Idaho Per Capita Income Among All States 1970-2011
Mississippi Was the StateLower Than Idaho in 2009-2011
60.3%
75.5%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0%
NevadaHawaii
MichiganAlaska
DelawareCalifornia
ArizonaOhio
IdahoIndianaOregonIllinois
MissouriUtah
FloridaMontana
WisconsinUnited StatesPennsylvania
WashingtonNew York
IowaGeorgiaKansas
KentuckyNew MexicoRhode IslandWest Virginia
OklahomaNew Jersey
ColoradoSouth Carolina
MinnesotaNorth Carolina
TexasMarylandNebraska
MaineConnecticut
VermontTennessee
AlabamaNew Hampshire
ArkansasMassachusetts
VirginiaMississippi
WyomingLouisiana
South DakotaNorth Dakota
DC
Percentage Increase In 2011 Per Capita WageFrom Inflation-Adjusted1970 Per Capita Wage
