Economic Indicators: July 1986 - St. Louis Fed · 2018. 11. 7. · TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter,

99th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators

JULY 1986

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1986

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, ChairmanJAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESLEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)DAN LUNGREN (California)OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)BOBBI FIEDLER (California)

SENATEWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)PETE WILSON (California)LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director

ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

BERYL W. SPRINKEL, ChairmanTHOMAS G. MOORE, Member

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreignmailing) from:

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11


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 3.2percent (annual rate) or $33.1 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.1 percent and theimplicit price deflator rose 2.1 percent. (Series revised.)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)4,400

GNP- IN CURRENT DOLLARS

\ \1978

1 1 1

1979 19801 1 11981 1982

GNPIN 1982 DOLLARS -

1 1 11983

1 1 11984

1 1 11985

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,6001986

SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197819791980198119821983 r

1984 *1985r

1982: HJIV

1983: I 'n r

\\\ r

IV '

1984: I 'n r

Ul'rv r

1985: I r

n r

m r

rv r

1986: I r

IP

NOTE. — Series revised beginning 1983. See &

Grossnationalproduct

2,249.72,508.22,732.03,052.63,166.03,405.73,765.03,998.1

3,179.43,212.5

3,265.83,367.43,443.93,545.8

3,670.93,743.83,799.73,845.6

3,909.33,965.04,030.54,087.7

4,149.24,182.3

urvey of Cm

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

1,403.51,566.81,732.61,915.12,050.72,234.52,428.22,600.5

2,065.62,117.0

2,146.62,213.02,262.82,315.8

2,363.82,416.12,445.62,487.2

2,530.92,576.02,627.12,667.9

2,697.92,730.1

rent Busines

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

416.8454.8437.0515.5447.3502.3662.1661.1

452.2409.6

428.3481.3519.7579.8

659.5657.5670.3661.1

650.6667.1657.4669.5

708.3691.4

, July 1986.

Exports

Netexports

4.118.832.133.926.3

-6.1-58.7-78.9

14.514.1

22.7-2.1j9 3

-25.8

45.6-63.2-60.0-66.1

49.4-77.1-83.7

-105.3

-93.7-96.4

ind importsind service

Exports

227.5291.2351.0382.8361.9352.5382.7369.8

359.9335.9

343.6344.1357.7364.7

373.4382.1389.2386.2

378.4370.0362.3368.2

374.8375.6

Source

of goods

Imports

223.4272.5318.9348.9335.6358.7441.4448.6

345.4321.9

320.9346.2376.9390.5

419.0445.3449.1452.2

427.9447.1446.0473.6

468.5472.0

: Departmen

Total

425.2467.8530.3588.1641.7675.0733.4815.4

647.1671.8

668.1675.2680.7676.1

693.2733.3743.8763.4

777.3799.0829.7855.6

836.7857.2

of Commerc

Governgoo<

Total

161.8178.0208.1242.2272.7283.5311.3354.1

275.3293.2

285.5287.7284.9276.1

283.4315.2317.2329.1

333.7340.9360.9380.9

355.7364.8

e, Bureau of

ment purch.s and serv

Federal

Nationaldefense

108.9121.9142.7167.5193.8214.4235.0259.4

197.3205.4

208.5213.3214.3221.5

227.1233.7234.5244.9

248.9255.1265.5268.0

266.4277.5

Economic An

ases ofices

Non-defense

52.956.165.474.878.969.176.294.7

78.087.7

77.074.470.654.6

56.381.682.784.2

84.885.895.5

112.9

89.387.3

alyais.

andlocal

263.4289.9322.2345.9369.0391.5422.2461.3

371.8378.7

382.7387.5395.8400.0

409.8418.1426.6434.3

443.5458.1468.8474.7

480.9492.4

Final

2,221.02,495.22,740.33,028.63,190.53,412.83,700.93,987.0

3,188.43,272.4

3,308.43,378.63,449.43,514.8

3,575.43,683.93,735.33,808.9

3,883.93,945.94,027.44,090.8

4,105.44,162.8


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1932 DOLLARS[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

197819791980198119821983 '1984 '.1985 r.

1982: mIV

1983: I 'n r.m r

IV '.

1984: I r

n r.TTT r

rv '.1985: I '

n r.rar

IV '.

1986: I *n"

Gross

product

3,115.23,192.43,187.13,248.83,166.03,279.13,489.93,585.2

3,154.53,159.3

3,186.63,258.33,306.43,365.1

3,444.73,487.13,507.43,520.4

3,547.03,567.63,603.83,622.3

3,655.93,665.7

Personalconsump-

expendi-tures

1,961.02,004.42,000.42,024.22,050.72,146.02,246.32,324.5

2,051.82,078.7

2,094.22,135.12,163.02,191.9

2,213.82,246.32,253.32,271.7

2,292.32,311.92,342.02,351.7

2,372.72,407.0

Gdome

Nonresi-dentialfixed

362.1389.4379.2395.2366.7361.2422.2461.4

358.0352.3

341.6348.8363.9390.4

394.4419.5427.1447.6

442.7463.0463.1476.9

457.8454.8

ross privatStic invest

Residen-tial

fixed

178.0170.8137.0126.5105.1149.3170.6177.2

100.1115.8

127.8147.4161.9159.9

169.7173.2171.2168.3

172.4175.1180.0181.5

186.3193.1

event

Changem

businessinvento-

36.815.0

-6.923.9

-24.5-6.459.29.0

-9.4-59.3

-42.3-9.3-1.027.0

85.157.060.633.9

23.217.4

.7-5.2

39.919.6

Ex8

Netexports

-26.83.6

57.049.426.3

-19.9-83.6108.2

11.711.7

16.1-14.6-35.0-46.2

-68.6-87.2

85.7-92.7

-78.8-108.1-113.8-132.0

-125.9-146.3

jorts of gond service

Exports

312.6356.8388.9392.7361.9348.1369.7362.3

359.5336.0

342.5341.7352.8355.5

361.3367.0375.5375.0

369.4361.2355.8362.9

369.2371.9

odss

Imports

339.4353.2332.0343.4335.6368.1453.2470.5

347.8324.3

326.4356.3387.8401.6

429.9454.2461.2467.7

448.2469.3469.6494.8

495.1518.3

Total

604.1609.1620.5629.7641.7649.0675.2721.2

642.5660.1

649.2650.9653.6642.2

650.2678.2681.0691.5

695.3708.3731.8749.4

725.2737.5

Governgoot

Total

233.7236.2246.9259.6272.7275.1291.7323.6

273.8289.5

278.2278.5277.6266.0

271.2296.3295.6303.8

305.8311.4329.9347.2

320.4325.1

ment purcls and sen

Federal

National

160.7164.3171.2180.3193.8206.9219.4235.7

197.0201.4

203.2206.3206.5211.6

214.4219.0218.4225.9

228.0233.5242.2239.3

238.7247.5

ases ofaces

Non-

73.071.975.779.378.968.272.387.8

76.988.2

75.172.271.154.4

56.877.377.177.9

77.877.987.6

107.9

81.777.5

Stateandlocal

370.4373.0373.6370.1369.0373.9383.5397.6

368.6370.6

371.0372.4376.0376.2

379.0381.8385.4387.7

389.5396.9401.9402.2

404.8412.4

Finalsales

3,078.43,177.43,194.03,225.03,190.53,285.53,430.73,576.2

3,164.03,218.6

3,228.93,267.63,307.43,338.1

3,359.63,430.03,446.83,486.4

3,523.93,550.23,603.13,627.5

3,616.13,646.1

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1983. See Survey of Current Business, July 1986. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

197819791980198119821983 '1984 '1985 '

1982: HIIV

1983: I *H r

in r.IT'

1984: I "n r

m r

IV '

1985: I r

n r

m r

IV r

1986: I r.n"

nationalproduct

72.278.685.794.0

100.0103.9107.9111.5

100.8101.7

102.5103.3104.2105.4

106.6107.4108.3109.2

110.2111.1111.8112.8

113.5114.1

Total

71.678.286.694.6

100.0104.1108.1111.9

100.7101.8

102.5103.6104.6105.7

106.8107.6108.5109.5

110.4111.4112.2113.4

113.7113.4

Personal cexpen

Durablegoods

76.982.189.295.7

100.0102.1103.8104.5

100.4100.7

101.3101.6102.3103.1

103.3103.9104.1104.1

104.6104.5104.5104.3

104.5104.8

onsumptionditures

Nondura-ble goods

71.980.089.496.9

100.0102.1105.0107.5

100.5101.0

100.6101.9102.6103.1

104.4104.5105.1106.0

106.5107,2107.5108.9

108.0105.8

Services

69.875.683.992.6

100.0106.2111.7117.3

100.9102.7

104.2105.5106,8108.3

109.6110.9112.4113.6

115.0116.6118.0119.5

120.6121.8

Gross Idomestic i

dential

"

71.577.885.193.4

100.098.898.799.3

100.8100.7

99.898.898.498.3

98.498.598.899.0

99.499.299.399.4

100.3100.5

)rivateivestment

Residen-tial fixed

72.681.489.496.6

100.0102.2106.3108.2

100.499.1

101.9100.3103.2103.1

103.6106.4107.5107.8

107.6107.8108.1109.4

110.2111.1

Exports an<goods am

Exports

72.881.690.297.5

100.0101.3103.5102.1

100.1100.0

100.3100.7101.4102.6

103.4104.1103.6103.0

102.4102.4101.8101.5

101.5101.0

imports of1 services

Imports

65.877.196.0

101.6100.097.497.495.4

99.399.3

98.397.297.297.2

97.598.097.496.7

95.595.395.095.7

94.691.1

Gove

Total

69.275.484.393.3

100.0103.1106.7109.4

100.5101.3

102.6103.3102.6103.8

104.5106.4107.3108.3

109.1109.5109.4109.7

111.0112.2

nment pureser

Federal

Nationaldefense

67.874.283.492.9

100.0103.6107.1110.0

100.2102.0

102.6103.4103.8104.7

105.9106.7107.3108.4

109.2109.3109.6112.0

111.6112.1

lases of goonees

Non-defense

72.478.086.494.3

100.0101.4105.5107.9

101.599.5

102.6103.099.3

100.3

99.2105.5107.3108.2

109.0110.2108.9104.6

109.2112.7

ds and

Stateand local

71.177.786.293.4

100.0104.7110.1116.0

100.9102.2

103.1104.1105.3106.3

108.1109.5110.7112.0

113.9115.4116.6118.0

118.8119.4



CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, ANDRELATED PRICE MEASURES

[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1980198119821983 r.1984 '.1985 '.1982: III

IV1983: I r

II '.m r

IV '.1984: I r

II T.HI'IV.

1985: I 'n r.m r

IV.1986: I '

n"

Currentdollars

8.911.73.77.6

10.56.22.54.26.8

13.09.4

12.414.98.26.14.96.85.86.85.86.23.2

Or

Constant(1982)dollars

-0.21.9

-2.53.66.42.7

— 3.2.6

3.59.36.07.39.85.02.31.53.12.34.12.13.81.1

ss national pr

Implicitprice

deflator

9.09.76.43.93.83.35.83.63.23.23.54.7

4.63.03.43.43.73.32.53.62.52.1

duct

Chain priceindex

9.09.46.34.14.03.65.64.13.73.64.13.94.83.63.63.53.93.52.53.91.91.5

Fixed-weighted

price index(1982

weights)

9.39.36.24.14.03.75.54.03.63.84.24.04.73.63.53.64.23.62.84.0

2.51.8

Currentdollars

10.610.57.19.08.77.18.5

10.35.7

13.09.39.78.69.15.07.07.27.38.26.44.64.9

Personal

Constant(1982)dollars

-0.21.21.34.64.73.52.15.33.08.05.35.54.16.01.33.33.73.55.31.73.65.9

consumption e

Implicitprice

deflator

10.79.25.74.13.83.56.24.42.84.43.94.34.23.03.43.73.33.72.94.31.1

-1.1

Kpenditures

Chain priceindex

10.99.25.74.24.03.6

6.34.8

2.84.64.04.1

4.53.03.73.73.54.02.84.71.4

-.4

Fixed,weighted

price index(1982

weights)

10.59.05.64.24.03.76.34.82.84.64.14.14.73.03.83.83.64.23.04,71.5

-.5

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.Series revised beginning 1983. See Survey of Current Business, July 1986.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, ANDPROFITS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1980198119821983 '.1984 '.1985r.1982: m

IV1983: l r

rrr.m r

rv1984: I'

n'.m r

IV1985: I '

n im r

IV1986: I'

Gross dprodu

nonfincorporate(billions o

Current

1,540.81,738.41,782.21,914.22,143.72,275.11,789.01,779.41,816.01,883.91,944.52,012.52,081.72,135.92,160.32,196.82,226.02,259.12,301.32,314.12,343.6

omesticct ofaneialbusiness

f dollars)

1982

1,807.91,837.21,782.21,866.02,030.82,105.51,777.81,760.21,790.71,844.71,887.91,940.51,993.82,031.62,038.42,059.42,075.72,094.42,124.62,127.32,141.0

Totalcostand

profit 2

0.852.946

1.0001.0261.0561.0811.0061.0111.0141.0211.0301.0371.0441.0511.0601.0671.0721.0791.0831.0881.095

Curren

Capitalconsump-

tionallow-anceswith

capitalconsump-

tionadjust-ment

0.095.109.125.123.118.120.127.131.127.124.123.120.118.117.118.119.119.120.119.121.121

t-dollar cos

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.077.090.094.098.100.103.094.096.097.099.099.098.099.100.101.101.102.104.103.104.106

and profit

Compen-sation ofemploy-

ees

0.581.632.676.679.690.708.679.685.682.676.676.680.683.684.694.699.704.708.705.716.721

per unit o

Netinterest

0.031.037.043.037.041.043.041.042.039.037.037.037.037.039.042.043.044.043.042.042.042

output (do

Corpfinventory

consun

Total

0.068.078.063.089.107.106.065.057.069.086.095.103.107.111.104.104.103.104.113.105.105

liars) J

rate profitsvaluation aption adjus

Profitstax

liability

0.037.035.026.032.037.032.026.023.023.031.036.036.041.040.034.032.031.029.033.033.029

withnd capitaltments

Profitsaftertax4

0.031.044.037.057.070.075.038.034.046.055.059.066.067.071.070.072.073.075.080.072.076

Outputper hour

of allemploy-

ees(1982

dollars)

17.09617.19417.31817.86718.22418.436

r 17.374' 17.38317.63417.86517.93618.02718.17218.27518.20118.25018.28518.38418.60418.47218.449

Compen-sation

per hourof all

employ-ees

(dollars)

9.93910.86111.69912.12412.57413.06011.804

r!1.91512.03112.07312.12612.25912.40612.49812.63012.75812.87813.01113.12113.22913.294

1 Output i isured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-

2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business withthe decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.

4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1983. See Survey of Current Business, July 1986.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Laboi(Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198119821983 r

1984 '1985 '

1982: IIIIV

1983: I r.n r

ni '.. . ..IV

1984: 1'.II 'rar.IV

1985: I '-n r

ni '.IV

1986: I '.

II"

Nationalincome

2,443.52,518.42,719.53,032.03,222.3

2,528.42,548.2

2,599.12,685.52,741.8

2,851.5

2,963.23,010.33,052.33,102.0

3,157.03,201.43,243.4

3,287.3

3,340.7

Compen-sation ofemploy-

ees1

1,807.41,907.02,020.72,214.72,368.2

1,918.41,931.1

1,958.81,995.02,036.32,092.7

2,153.72,195.42,234.72,275.0

2,316.32,352.12,380.92,423.6

2,461.52,478.8

Proprietowith in

valuationconsuadjust

Farm

30.724.612.431.529.2

22.928.5

18.115.9

-3.519.3

44.526.424.730.4

32.933.021.629.4

24.439.1

•s' incomeventoryind capitalnptionments

Nonfarm

156.1150.9178.4205.3225.2

151.7159.8

165.9176.4183.0188.6

198.0203.2209.9210.3

217.8222.5

227.7232.7

240.9249.0

Rentalincome ofpersons

withcapital

tionadjust-ment

13.313.613.28.37.6

12.015.8

13.815.411.212.4

12.18.47.15.6

6.88.17.38.3

12.815.1

Corpora

Total

188.0150.0213.7264.7280.7

154.3146.1

170.6207.0228.9248.5

262.5271.7259.8265.0

266.4274.3296.3285.6

296.4

te profits wiconsul

Profits wiadjus tme

consu

Total

202.3159.2196.7230.2222.6

161.6150.7

163.9191.2208.5223.4

235.7241.5223.3220.3

213.3215.4235.3226.4

240.8

h inventoryription adjus

th inventoryit and withomption adjus

Profitsbefore tax

226.5169.6207.6235.7223.2

171.6164.1

169.7201.8227.5231.5

249.3246.5225.1221.9

213.8213.8229.2235.8

224.3

valuation anments

valuationtit capitaltment

Inventoryvaluation

adjust-ment

-24.2— 10.4-10.9-5.5-.6

-10.0-13.4

-5.9-10.6-19.0-8.1

-13.6-4.9-1.8-1.6

-.51.66.1

-9.4

16.55.9

I capital

Capitalconsump-

tion

ment

-14.4-9.217.034.558.1

-7.3—4.5

6.715.820.525.1

26.730.236.544.7

53.258.961.059.2

55.651.4

Netinterest

248.1272.3281.0307.4311.4

269.1266.9

272.1275.8285.9290.2

292.5305.2316.1315.7

316.8311.4309.7307.6

304.9299.1

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)



PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198119821983 r.1984 T.1985 '.1982: IH

rv1983: I '

11 T

III r

IV.

1984: I 'II r

in r

IV.

1985: I *II 'III 'IV.

1986: I 'II"

con-

expendi-tures

1,915.12,050.72,234.52,428.22,600.5

2,065.62,117.0

2,146.62,213.02,262.82,315.8

2,363.82,416.12,445.6

2,487.2

2,530.92,576.02,627.12,667.9

2,697.92,730.1

Totaldurable

239.9252.7289.1331.2359.3

252.8263.8

266.7284.5295.2310.0

321.2331.3331.8340.4

347.7354.0373.3362.0

360.8374.7

Durabl

Motorvehi-cles

parts

100.5108.9130.4154.5169.2

108.3115.7

115.0128.5133.7144.4

150.4155.8154.4157.6

162.3165.3182.8166.4

163.5173.6

goods

Furni-tureand

house-hold

equip-ment

92.795.7

107.1118.9126.8

96.499.1

101.6105.3109.2112.4

115.6118.3119.2122.3

123.5125.9126.8130.9

132.1134.3

Other

46.648.151.657.863.3

48.149.0

50.250.652.353.2

55.257.258.360.4

61.962.863.764.7

65.366.7

goods

740.6771.0816.7870.1905.1

776.7786.6

791.0810.9827.0837.9

855.7870.3873.9880.3

888.2902.3907.4922.6

929.7926.0

Non

Food

376.5398.8421.9449.9469.3

402.7407.0

411.1418.8426.8430.8

440.4447.9454.3456.9

461.2468.3470.4477.4

484.6489.5

durable g

Cloth-ing andshoes

119.9124.4135.1147.2

155.2

125.0

126.5

128.7134.5136.0141.1

144.4

148.2

146.6149.7

151.7155.0155.4158.7

161.3163.8

5ods

Gaso-line

and oil

92.789.190.290.791.9

88.689.8

87.089.492.591.9

92.091.789.489.9

89.692.892.493.0

87.677.0

Other

151.6158.7169.5182.2188.7

160.4163.4

164.3168.2171.7174.0

178.8182.5183.6183.8

185.8186.2189.1193.5

196.2195.8

934.71,027.01,128.7

1,227.0

1,336.1

1,036.11,066.5

1,088.91,117.61,140.61,167.9

1,186.91,214.51,239.91,266.5

1,294.91,319.71,346.41,383.2

1,407.41,429.4

Retailnew pa

cars {miun

Do-mestics

6.25.86.88.08.2

5.66.0

6.06.96.97.4

8.18.17.97.7

8.38.19.47.0

7.88.1

ales ofssengerlions ofts)

Im-ports

2.32.22.42.42.8

2.22.5

2.32.32.32.6

2.32.42.42.6

2.42.73.03.2

2.83.1



SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $3.5 billion (annual rate) in June, following a decline of $9.4 billion in May. Decreases in

subsidy payments to farmers affected both the June and May changes; in addition, a strike in the communications

industry affected the June change. Excluding subsidy payments and the effect of the strike, personal income

increased $15.9 billion in June and $8.6 billion in May. (Series revised.)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

3,800

3,200

1,600

800

400

200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

3,800

3,200

1978 1979 1980

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

TOTHER INCOME

1981

TRANSFERPAYMENTS

1982 1983 1984 1985

1,600

800

400

2001986


[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197819791980198119821983 r

1984 r

1985 r

1985: June r

July '.Aug'Sept r

Oct r

Nov r

Dec r

1986: Jan T.Feb r.Mar r

AprMay r.June p.

Totalpersonalincome

1,812.42,033.92,258.42,520.92,670.82,838.63,110.23,314.5

3,304.93,315.43,320.53,333.93,358.33,372.33,418.0

3,417.43,435.33,445.13,485.13,475.73,479.2

salary

ments

1,119.31,252.11,372.01,510.31,586.11,676.61,836.81,966.1

1,965.71,965.81,975.41,986.71,996.72,010.52,031.1

2,035.72,044.82,051.83,053.32,056.42,063.0

Other labor

107.7122.7138.4150.3163.6173.6184.5196.9

196.6197.8198.9199.9200.8201.7202.6

203.6204.5205.5206.4207.3208.2

Proprietor

Farm

27.031.720.530.724.612.431.529.2

24.322.619.322.824.026.038.2

23.426.922.854.236.526.4

income 3

Nonfarm

149.2160.1160.1156.1150.9178.4205.3225.2

223.6225.6227.3230.2230.8232.4234.9

237.9241.0243.8246.9248.3251.8

Rentalincome ofpersons 4

9.35.66.6

13.313.613.28.37.6

8.79.6

10.51.7

10.42.9

11.7

12.212.713.514.315.115.9

Personaldividendincome

43.048.152.961.363.968.774.776.4

76.376.376.376.276.476.876.9

78.079.280.080.881.181.5

Personalinterestincome

182.5221.4271.9335.4369.7393.1446.9476.2

475.0474.4474.7476.4478.7481.0482.2

481.4480.7480.4480.4480.5480.7

Transferpay-

ments 5

244.0273.1324.7368.1410.6442.6455.6487.1

484.4493.1489.0491.2492.7493.5494.5

503.4504.2506.5507.9510.3511.0

Less:Persona]

contributionsfor socialinsurance

69.881.088.6

104.5112.3120.1133.5150.2

149.9149.9150.9151.3152.1152.7154.0

158.0158.7159.1159.1159.8159.3

Nonfarmpersona]income 6

1,769.31,983.12,215.82,465.62,618.72,799.03,052.23,261.0

3,256.23,268.63,277.23,287.53,311.03,323.23,356.9

3,371.13,385.63,399.53,408.13,416.43,430.2

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofemployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess ofwage accruals over wage disbursements.

2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injurycompensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.

3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.4 With capital consumption adjustment.

5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,

and agricultural net interest.




DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable personal income rose again in the second quarter. (Series revised.)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

1,000DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

— PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

1,000DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

14,000

CURRENT DOLLARS

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

1982 DOLLARS

1984 1985

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

1986

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

197819791980198119821983 r.1984 r.1985 r.

1982: HIIV

1983: I r

n r.m r....rv r....

1984: I r

n r.m r....IV....

1985: I r

II r.m r....IV r....

1986: I r

II"

Personalincome

1,812.42,033.92,258.42,520.92,670.82,838.63,110.23,314.5

2,683.62,729.2

2,753.12,812.62,846.82,941.8

3,034.23,077.43,139.73,189.6

3,253.13,298.73,323.23,382.9

3,432.63,480.0

T n oc-ijeSS.Personaltax andnontax

payments

B

261.1304.7340.5393.3409.3410.5439.6486.5

405.0411.1

407.4417.1403.6413.9

421.5431.2445.9460.0

497.7456.4491.2500.7

497.5500.8

Equals:Disposable

personalincome

illions of doll

1,551.21,729.31,917.92,127.62,261.42,428.12,670.62,828.0

2,278.62,318.1

2,345.72,395.42,443.22,527.9

2,612.72,646.32,693.82,729.6

2,755.42,842.32,832.02,882.2

2,935.12,979.2

Less:Personaloutlays *

ars

1,441.11,611.31,781.11,968.12,107.52,297.42,501.92,684.7

Seas

2,122.62,174.9

2,206.22,274.42,326.72,382.5

2,433.52,488.72,520.92,564.6

2,611.32,658.72,712.42,756.4

2,789.42,823.5

Equals:Personalsaving

110.2118.0136.8159.4153.9130.6168.7143.3

mally adju

156.0143.1

139.5121.1116.4145.4

179.2157.6172.9165.0

144.1183.6119.6125.8

145.6155.7

Per cdisposable

incc

Currentdollars

6,9687,6828,4219,2439,724

10,34011,26511,817

sted annual

9,7869,929

10,02510,21510,39110,725

11,06011,17811,35011,471

11,55511,89311,81911,999

12,19312,351

apitapersonal

me

1982dollars

Do

9,7359,8299,7229,7699,7259,930

10,42110,563

rates

9,7209,749

9,7809,8559,933

10,151

10,35810,39210,45710,477

10,46610,67410,53710,577

10,72310,889

Per capitaconsul]expenc

Currentdollars

lars

6,3046,9607,6078,3208,8189,515

10,24310,866

8,8719,068

9,1749,4379,6249,825

10,00710,20610,30410,452

10,61310,77910,96411,107

11,20811,318

personalnptionitures

1982dollars

8,8088,9048,7838,7948,8189,1399,4759,713

8,8128,904

8,9509,1059,2009,299

9,3729,4889,4949,547

9,6139,6749,7749,790

9,8579,979

ercen

real percapita

disposablepersonalincome

Per

3.81.0

— 1.1.5

-.52.14.91.4

-0.71.2

1.33.13.29.1

8.41.32.5.8

-.48.2

-5.01.5

5.66.3

Q .

percent ofdisposablepersonalincome

cent

7.16.87.17.56.85.46.35.1

6.86.2

5.95.14.85.8

6.96.06.46.0

5.26.54.24.4

5.05.2

Popula-tion,

includingArmedForcesabroad(thou-

sands) 2

222,629225,106227,754230,182232,549234,829237,067239,317

232,851233,466

233,981234,509235,117235,707

236,222236,742237,347237,953

238,469238,985239,605240,201

240,70!241.2K

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person-al transfer payments to foreigners (net).

2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.


Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the first quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $20.9 billion (annual rate)and net farm income fell $18.4 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

^4U

160

80

60

40

20

10

^_^^^

^**

/

\ I !1978

.--— •

-" — -V

\\

*

1 1 1

1979

r- ~

t

» i

\ ii i

i i

\ty

\ 1 i

1980

^~ 1"GRC

/'"*•»..

i

% /"

i i i1981

\)SS FARM INCC

NET FARM 1

f\

\ f \

\ f

**^ /

1 1 1

1982

^^-—"^

DME

^COME

,'1 i

\ »"""

\ i

yr i i1983

/-*-— — " 1

/ \*\ /i \ '' %» /

I I I1984

" ^ ^^/

1 *

/ 1

^% 1\ 1

\ ,

N '

\ 1

\ j

t f

\1

1 1 1

1985

%

t

1 ! I1986

240

200

80

60

40

10

1 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1978197919801981198219831984

1983: InmIV

1984: InmIV

1985: InniTV

1986: I"

Total *

128.4150.7149.6166.0161.6150.6174.0

152.9143.6151.7154.3

175.7167.3173.7179.8

169.9161.9148.9176.5

155.6

(

Cas

Total

112.2131.5139,8142.1142,9136,3141.8

143,2133,0141.2127.6

139,3139,0141.5147.6

140,1134,0134.3164,2

132.6

In

jross farm incom

h marketing rece

Livestock andproducts

59.269.268.069.270.369.472.7

71.068.967.970.0

75.570.871.273.5

71.766.868.072.1

69.5

come of farm ope

3

ipts

Crops

53.062.371.872.972.766.869.1

72.264.173.357.6

63.868.270.374.2

68.467.266.392.1

63.1

rators from farmi

inventorychanges 2

2.15.0

-5.95.8

— 1.4-10.6

7.8

-10.6-13.9-12.9

-4.9

2.08.7

10.310.2

2.8-1.6-4.1-5.2

-4.2

ng

Productionexpenses

101.0119.0129.4136.1136.9135.6139.5

135.1134.9135.5136.9

139.2140.2140.0138.5

137.0134.9132.8130.6

128.2

Net farn

Currentdollars

27.431.720.229.824.615.034.5

17.88.7

16.217.3

36.527.033.641.2

32.927.016.145.9

27.5

income

1982 dollars 3

38.040.323.631.824.614.531.9

17.48.5

15.516.4

34.225.130.937.6

29.824.214.440.6

24.2

1 Cash marketing' receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averageprices during the year.

3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982= 100).

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.

Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the first quarter of 1986, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $11.5 billion (annualrate) and after-tax profits fell $4.2 billion. (Series revised.)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS320

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS320

280

240

120

80

40

80

40

1978

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1986



Period

1980198119821983 r

1984 r

1985 r

1982: mIV

1983: I T

n r

fflr

IV

1984: I r

n r

nir

IV1985: I r

n r

inr

rv1986: I r

II "

Pro

Total 2

194.0202.3159.2196.7230.2222.6

161.6150.7

163.9191.2208.5223.4

235.7241.5223.3220.3

213.3215.4235.3226.4

240.8

fits (before t

Total

159.6173.8131.2166.6199.2190.8

133.0121.6

135.7163.0176.8190.7

205.2211.5191.3188.8

182.6183.8205.3191.3202.4

ix) with inve

Dor

Financial

21.016.511.818.115.421.0

12.418.7

19.420.317.215.5

16.615.413.416.1

18.221.121.723.228.4

ntory valuati

nestic indust

Total 3

138.6157.3119.4148.5183.8169.7

120.6102.9

116.3142.7159.6175.2

188.6196.1177.8172.6

164.4162.7183.6168.1174.0

Dn adjustmen

•ies

Nonfinancial

Manufac-turing

77.188.558.070.187.473.0

64.346.8

51.263.277.788.6

95.094.681.378.9

70.468.279.074.567.1

t 1

sale andretailtrade

21.632.534.638.949.749.7

32.933.6

32.541.039.043.1

46.251.151.050.7

48.851.154.245.0

52.5

Profitsbefore tax

237.1226.5169.6207.6235.7223.2

171.6164.1

169.7201.8227.5231.5

249.3246.5225.1221.9

213.8213.8229.2235.8224.3

Taxliability

84.881.163.177.295.491.8

64.359.8

59.175.386.588.1

102.9101.689.387.8

87.887.195.896.4

89.1

P

Total

152.3145.4106.5130.4140.3131.4

107.3104.3

110.6126.6141.0143.4

146.4144.8135.8134.1

126.0126.7133.4139.4

135.2

rofits after ta

Dividends

54.763.666.971.578.381.6

66.668.5

69.870.472.073.9

76.078.179.080.1

80.981.481.682.585.287.5

X

Undistrib-uted

profits

97.681.839.658.962.049.8

40.735.8

40.856.169.069.5

70.466.756.854.0

45.145.351.857.050.0

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-43.1-24.2-10.4-10.9-5.5-.6

-10.0-13.4

-5.9-10.6-19.0-8.1

-13.6-4.9-1.8-1.6

-.51.66.1

-9.416.55.9

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.3 Includes industries not shown separately.

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1983. See Survey of Current Business, July 19



GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, nonresidential fixed investment fell $1.9 billion (annualrate) from its first quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $9.3 billion. There was a $19.5 billionincrease in inventories following an increase of $43.8 billion in the first quarter. (Series revised.)

BILLIC800

600

300

200

0

-100

)NS OF DOLLA

_

~^

^. "'

—

1 1 1

1978

OURCE: DEPARTMENT

*s

—--' -—

1 — v^

1 1 11979

OF COMMERCE

GROSS

r^y

Fl)

•\ "-

-

1 1 11980

SEASON

> PRIVATE DOWINVESTMENT

^\

•.'"'

RESIDENTIAL<ED INVESTME

\

" — -

CHt

S- "~\

1 1 11981

ALLY ADJUSTED ANN

ESTIC

rN* — .N

Fl

•41

^-"'

\NGE IN BUSISINVENTORIES

_^

1 1 1

1982

LJAL RATES

|

/

/^.^"*

ONRESIDENTI/XED INVESTME

-''"

JESS/

,/

1 1 1

1983

rn_,-'

\L•41

__..—-"""""" "~~* — •-

/\.

\,

1 1 1

1984

BIL

~~~^

--' """"

'

r — - ._ /

i i i1985

COUNCIL OF

IONS OF DOLl

—

-— _

—

_

—

r •

i i i1986

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

ARS800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100


Period

19791980198119821983 r.1984 r.1985 r

1982: HIIV

1983: I r

n r

m r

IV r.1984: lr

H r

m r

IVr.

1985: I r

n r

m r

IVr.1986: I r

H"

domesticinvestment

454.8437.0515.5447.3502.3662.1661.1

452.2409.6

428.3481.3519.7579.8

659.5657.5670.3661.1

650.6667.1657.4669.5

708.3691.4

Total

441.9445.3491.5471.8509.4598.0650.0

461.2469.5

471.0492.5525.2548.8

564.0597.6605.8624.4

625.2648.0654.3672.6

664.4671.9

]

Total

302.8322.8369.2366.7356.9416.5458.2

360.7354.9

340.8344.7358.1383.9

388.2413.3421.8442.9

439.8459.2459.8474.0

459.2457.3

?ixed investmen

Nonresidential

Structures

99.5113.9138.5143.3124.0139.3154.8

140.2137.6

126.4119.8122.7127.4

129.7139.1141.4146.7

150.7156.1155.0157.2

154.6142.1

Producers'durable

equipment

203.3208.9230.7223.4232.8277.3303.4

220.5217.3

214.4224.9235.5256.5

258.4274.1280.4296.2

289.1303.1304.7316.8

304.6315.2

Residential

139.1122.5122.3105.1152.5181.4191.8

100.5114.7

130.2147.8167.1164.9

175.8184.4184.0181.5

185.4188.8194.5198.6

205.3214.6

Change irmven

Total

13.0-8.324.0

-24.57.1

64.111.1

9.0-59.9

-42.611.2

-5.531.0

95.559.964.436.7

25.419.13.1

-3.1

43.819.5

businessones

Nonfarm

7.92.4

18.3-23.1

.456.612.2

-12.4-51.1

-33.22 3

15.821.3

71.556.862.135.9

18.510.43.2

16.7

41.212.4

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1983. See Survey of Current Business, Ju]y 1986. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTAccording to the Commerce Department April-May 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipmentfor the year 1986 is expected to be 0.2 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.0 percent abovethe 1984 level.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

400

300

200

100

80

60

40


ALL INDUSTRIES

I I I

1978I I

1979J_.l.. I

1980

NONMANUFACTURING -^

MANUFACTURING

. 1 1 11981

r

1982 1983 1984

_V SURVEYED QUARTERLY2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1985

500

400

300

200

100

80

60

40

1986



1978197919801981198219831984198519864

1984: IIImIV

1985: IIIinIV

1986: In 4

in4

IV4

indus-tries

217.76254.96282.80315.22310.58304.78354.44386.41387.25

337.95349.97361.48368.29

371.16387.83388.90397.74

376.08387.42388.87396.61

M

Total

78.5895.92

112.33126.54120.68116.20138.82153.15149.17

129.91135.96142.44146.96

145.65154.33154.04158.57

143.06148.01148.47157.16

inufacturii

Dura-ble

39.4648.5055.3659.8155.3553.0866.2473.1472.09

61.2364.0368.2671.43

69.8773.9672.8575.87

67.7472.2071.4276.98

Industries

ig

Non-durable

39.1347.4256.9666.7365.3363.1272.5880.0177.09

68.6871.9374.1875.53

75.7880.3681.1982.70

75.3275.8077.0480.19

surveyed

Total 1

139.18159.04170.47188.68189.89188.58215.61233.26238.07

208.04214.01219.04221.33

225.51233.51234.86239.16

233.02239.41240.40239.45

quarterly

Nor

Mining

11.2212.8115.9921.3920.0515.1916.8615.8812.35

17.2416.3816.8217.00

15.6616.5115.9415.40

12.8512.6112.4911.43

unanufactur

Trans-portation

13.3616.0516.6015.8414.7913.9716.5217.9718.16

15.2917.0117.4916.28

16.2217.5019.0919.06

17.7617.9919.2117.68

ing

Publicutilities

31.5035.6337.7441.2145.4344.9647.4848.7446.40

47.0847.9447.9246.92

48.4648.4748.1449.89

47.1547.5944.9845.89

Com-mercial

andother

83.0994.56

100.14110.24109.63114.45134.75150.67161.16

128.42132.67136.80141.13

145.17151.02151.69154.81

155.27161.22163.73164.45

Total

farmbusi-

245.34284.94314.47349.26347.47343.35398.99431.21

Manu-facturing

78.5895.92

112.33126.54120.68116.20138.82153.15149.17

129.91135.96142.44146.96

145.65154.33154.04158.57

143.06148.01148.47157.16

Addenda

Non

Total

166.76189.02202.15222.72226.79227.15260.16278.07

manufactu

Sur-veyedquar-terly

139.18159.04170.47188.68189.89188.58215.61233.26238.07

208.04214.01219.04221.33

225.51233.51234.86239.16

233.02239.41240.40239.45

ring

Sur-veyed

annual-ly s

27.5829.9831.6834.0436.8938.5644.5544.81

1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annu-ally") for data for these industries.

2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.

3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;social services and membership organizations; and real estate.

4Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April-May 1986, corrected forbiases.


10


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCEIn June, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 563,000 and unemployment fell 111,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*120

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

1978 1986

* 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

1979198019811982198319841985

1985: June....JuJy ....AugSept ....OctNovDec

1986: Jan*...FebMarAprMayJune....

Noninstitu-tional

populationincludingresidentArmedForcesNSA

166,460169,349171,775173,939175,891178,080179,912

179,798179,967180,131180,304180,470180,642180,810

181,361181,512181,678181,843181,998182,183

Resi-dent

ArmedForcesNSA

1,5971,6041,6451,6681,6761,6971,706

1,7021,7041,7261,7321,7001,7021,698

1,6911,6911,6931,6951,6871,680

T h f

includingresidentArmedForces

106,559108,544110,315111,872113,226115,241117,167

116,726116,976117,069117,522117,814117,832117,927

118,477118,779118,900118,929119,351119,796

Employ-ment

includingresidentArmedForces

100,421100,907102,042101,194102,510106,702108,856

108,303108,575108,936109,251109,513109,671109,904

110,646110,252110,481110,587110,797111,353

Civilianlabor force

104,962106,940108,670110,204111,550113,544115,461

115,024115,272115,343115,790116,114116,130116,229

116,786117,088117,207117,234117,664118,116

Total

98,82499,303

100,39799,526

100,834105,005107,150

106,601106,871107,210107,519107,813107,969108,206

108,955108,561108,788108,892109,110109,673

Civilian er

Agricul-tural

3,3473,3643,3683,4013,3833,3213,179

3,1403,1203,0953,0173,0583,0703,151

3,2993,0963,2853,2223,1603,165

nployment

Nonag

Total

95,47795,93897,03096,12597,450

101,685103,971

103,461103,751104,115104,502104,755104,899105,055

105,655105,465105,503105,670105,950106,508

ri cultural

Part-timefor

economicreasons *

3,3734,0644,4995,8525,9975,5125,334

5,2785,3285,4135,2995,2415,2955,294

5,2755,1585,3015,6215,6735,320

Unempk

Total

6,1377,6378,273

10,67810,7178,5398,312

8,4238,4018,1338,2718,3018,1618,023

7,8318,5278,4198,3428,5548,443

)yment

15weeks

andover

1,2411,8712,2853,4854,2102,7372,305

2,3282,3292,2742,3072,2772,2052,188

2,0562,3402,2582,1352,2092,320

Laborpartici]rate (pe

Total2

64.064.164.264.364.464.765.1

64.965.065.065.265.365.265.2

65.365.465.465.465.665.8

forceationrcent)

Civil-ian 3

63.763.863.964.064.064.464.8

64.664.764.764.865.064.964.9

65.065.165.165.165.365.4

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.

2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces).3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitntional population.

" Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change inestimation procedures.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

62-360 0 - 8 6 - 211


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn June, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell 0.2 psrcentage point to 7.0 percent and thecivilian unemployment rate also fell 0.2 percentage point, to 7.1 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

20

15

10

ri

t

t/ j j.**

/

/,

<^X>

iiiiilinii1982

MV,

V-A \-, V\

NV"

Ah

^v^sv-

Illllllllll1983

BLACK

w/ v\^\ / \

BLACK4D OTHER

ALL CIVIL:

^", /<~ WHITE

Illllllllll1984

A- -\* »

»

AN WORKER

• — - ,

~~-

Illllllllll

1985

/

/'

S

/ '/* —

Hll l l lMM

1986

25

20

15

10

A/

o Illinium1982

* * **TEENAGERS

(16-19)

I l l l l l l l l l l1983

WOMEN 20 YEARSAND OVER

MEN 20 YEARSAND OVER

I l l l l l l l l l l1984 1985 1986

•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1979198019811982198319841985

1985: June....JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986: JanFebMarAprMayJune ....

Unem-ploy-mentrate,all

work-ers1

5.87.07.59.59.57.47.1

7.27.26.97.07.06.96.8

6.67.27.17.07.27.0

AllAilcivilianwork-

ers

5.87.17.69.79.67.57.2

7.37.37.17.17.17.06.9

6.77.37.27.17.37.1

B

Men20 yearsand over

4.25.96.38.88.96.66.2

6.46.26.06.16.16.05.9

5.76.26.26.06.46.2

j sex and a

Women20 years

andover

5.76.46.88.38.16.86.6

6.76.66.66.76.46.46.2

6.16.76.66.46.56.4

Unemp]

Se

Bothsexes16-19years

16.117.819.623.222.418.918.6

18.619.317.518.119.818.418.8

18.419.018.219.619.019.1

oyment ra

White

5.16.36.78.68.46.56.2

6.46.36.16.16.15.95.9

5.76.46.26.16.26.1

te (percen

By race

Blackand

other

11.313.114.217.317.814.413.7

13.213.512.813.713.514.113.4

12.813.313.313.613.613.7

t of civilia

Black

12.314.315.618.919.515.915.1

14.415.014.115.214.915.614.9

14.414.814.714.814.815.1

n labor force

Experi-enced

wage andsalary

workers

5.56.97.39.39.27.16.8

6.96.96.76.86.76.66.5

6.36.86.76.76.96.7

in group)

By s

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

2.84.24.36.56.54.64.3

4.64.44.14.34.24.34.3

4.34.54.54.24.54.5

elected grou

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

8.39.2

10.411.712.210.310.4

9.910.310.811.310.410.09.4

9.99.9

10.19.4

10.210.1

)S

Full-tune

workers

5.36.97.39.69.57.26.8

6.97.06.86.86.86.76.6

6.46.96.96.77.06.7

Part-time

workers

8.88.89.4

10.510.49.39.3

9.59.49.09.39.68.89.0

8.49.49.19.69.29.1

Laborforce

time lost(per-

cent) 2

6.37.98.5

11.010.98.68.1

8.28.28.18.17.97.97.8

7.68.18.18.18.38.1

1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per-

cent of potentially available labor force bours.


12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSIn June, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, and for 15-26weeks fell while the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean and themedian duration of unemployment rose.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

LESS THAN5 WEEKS

•A.

0 Illllllllll

1982

X'\\.'

1983

5-14

WEEKS

15-26WEEKS

1984

27 WEEKS'AND OVER-

1985

I l l l l l l l l l l

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

1986

REASON

A,* V

A/

V

__-.

f — -x ,

~^~*J~~^

Illllllllll1982

FOR UNEA

A

\^_

\

** /"" "

N

f-^A-^"

Illllllllll1983

APLOYMEN

"\

\ V

JOB LOSERS

REENTRANT!

-/x»/ N'

EW ENTRAN1

ill

IOB LEAVERS

Illllllllll

1984

r

V

.'-A,/ -'

s

—~^\r—

Illllllllll1985

A ~

'--,

fctA-

Illllllllll

1986

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

198019811982198319841985

1985: JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986: JanFebMarAprMayJune

Unemploy-

(thousands)

7,6378,273

10,67810,7178,5398,312

8,4238,4018,1338,2718,3018,1618,023

7,8318,5278,4198,3428,5548,443

I

Lessthan

5weeks

43.141.736.433.339.242.1

41.642.141.742.041.642.742.1

42.441.842.342.942.840.2

Dur

'ereent d

5-14weeks

32.330.731.027.428.730.2

30.430.030.630.230.830.230.7

31.330.831.131.831.632.2

ation of i

stributioi

15-26weeks

13.813.616.015.412.912.3

12.412.912.812.512.811.012.1

12.413.513.011.912.412.3

nemploj

i

27weeks

andover

10.714.016.623.919.115.4

15.514.915.015.314.816.115.1

13.914.013.713.413.115.3

mient

Numb

Aver-age

(mean)

11.913.715.620.018.215.6

15.515.515.515.515.415.715.4

14.915.314.414.314.415.2

er ofks

Medi-

6.56.98.7

10.17.96.8

6.87.17.26.97.06.96.9

6.86.96.86.56.67.3

Be

Joblosers

51.751.658.758.451.849.8

49.650.250.850.249.150.048.8

48.048.750.348.150.351.2

ison forpercent

Jobleav-ers

11.711.27.97.79.6

10.6

11.710.710.710.311.19.9

10.9

12.711.711.913.211.412.0

memployiistributi

Reen-trants

25.225.422.322.525.627.1

26.626.126.928.327.227.227.6

26.326.826.026.125.924.4

ment:3n

Newentrants

11.411.911.111.313.012.5

12.113.111.511.112.712.912.8

13.012.811.812.612.412.5

Statprogra

Insuredunem-

ployment

Weekly av

3,3503,0474,0613,3962,4762,616

2,5812,6092,5852,5602,5352,5602,564

2,5912,6102,6542,6122,6662,681

ems

Initialclaims

erage, th

488460583438377397

398391386384380382391

370392393380382381

Insuredunem-

ployment,all

regularprograms(unadjust-

ed)1

ousands

3,8373,4104,5943,7752,5453,671

2,3372,5232,3612,2122,2272,4682,884

3,3703,2953,1442,7992,556

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis-tration),

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell 89,000 in June.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

00

80

70

60

40

30

20

—

^~- — _

—

—

__

tillllllllll1982

_x-".

ALL NOEST

SER\

GOC

yjTi 1 1 1 1 1 1 11983

^

\NAGRICULT4.BLISHMENT

'ICE-PRODUCINDUSTRIES

)DS-PRODUCINDUSTRIES

Niiiniiiiii

1984

r^JRALS

____-- - -

:ING

ING

Illllllllll1985

I ~

—

""""

~

IIU|li|IH|1986 ^

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)24

14

20

18

CONSTRUCTION

1982

I IMl l l l l l l1 983

I l l l l l l l l l l1 984 1985

i i i i i l i i i i1986

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED


[Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted]

Period

1979198019811982198319841985

1985: June...July....Aug....Sept....OctNov....Dec

1986: JanFebMarApr r...May r..June p

Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

89,82390,40691,15689,56690,20094,49697,614

97,44297,67297,89098,12898,42898,66698,910

99,29699,42999,48499,78399,90899,819

Total 2

26,46125,65825,49723,81323,33424,72724,930

24,89724,87524,88024,84324,90324,93124,977

25,10125,03824,94525,03824,96424,859

Goods-p

Crtnon-

struction

4,4634,3464,1883,9053,9484,3834,687

4,6714,6794,7024,7284,7544,7654,787

4,9014,8644,8384,9724,9764,946

reducing in

M

Total

21,04020,28520,17018,78118,43419,37819,314

19,29019,26819,25619,19819,23619,25919,289

19,30319,29419,25519,24519,20019,144

dustries

anufaeturin

Durablegoods

12,76012,18712,10911,03910,73211,50511,516

11,51711,48311,47311,42111,44711,45311,461

11,46611,45511,41811,41511,37811,317

g

Nondur-able

goods

8,2808,0988,0617,7417,7027,8737,798

7,7737,7857,7837,7777,7897,8067,828

7,8377,8397,8377,8307,8227,827

Total

63,36364,74865,65965,75366,86669,76972,684

72,54572,79773,01073,28573,52573,73573,933

74,19574,39174,53974,74574,94474,960

Trans-portation

andpublic

utilities

5,1365,1465,1655,0824,9545,1595,242

5,2385,2415,2195,2575,2605,2725,277

5,2865,2775,2805,2665,2625,170

Se

Whole-sale

trade

5,2045,2755,3585,2785,2685,5555,740

5,7365,7405,7625,7775,7965,7965,809

5,8305,8435,8415,8645,8685,824

rvice-produ

Rptni ljieiantrade

14,98915,03515,18915,17915,61316,54517,360

17,37917,40417,46417,48917,54317,58917,622

17,73417,79517,82817,85117,90317,919

ing industr

Finance,insur-ance,

and realestate

4,9755,1605,2985,3415,4685,6895,953

5,9395,9645,9886,0146,0386,0706,095

6,1236,1576,1846,2286,2566,275

es

Services

17,11217,89018,61919,03619,69420,79721,974

21,89321,99822,11522,21222,31322,41522,501

22,58522,63822,70722,82522,91223,057

Gover

Total

15,94716,24116,03115,83715,86916,02416,415

16,36016,45016,46216,53616,57516,59316,629

16,63716,68116,69916,71116,74316,715

nment

Federal

2,7732,8662,7722,7392,7742,8072,875

2,8722,8792,8862,8992,8952,9042,913

2,9182,9182,9232,9142,9232,931

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments whoworked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces,Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domesticservants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the tune off; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from em-ploying establishments.

2 Includncludes mining, not shown separately.


14


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthJy data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985


1986: JanFebMarApr r

May 'June*

Totalprivate

nonagricul-tural '

35.835.735.335.234.835.035.234.9

34.934.834.934.934.934.834.9

35.034.934.934.834.834.8

Average weeklyhours

Manufa

Total

40.440.239.739.838.940.140.740.5

40.540.440.640.740.740.740.9

40.840.740.740.740.740.6

£turing

Overtime

3.63.32.82.82.33.03.43.3

3.23.23.33.33.43.43.6

3.53.43.43.43.43.3

Average giearn

Totalprivate

nonagricul-tural J

$5.696.166.667.257.688.028.328.57

8.578.558.598.628.638.658.70

8.688.718.738.728.738.75

oss hourlyings

Manufactur-ing

$6.176.707.277.998.498.839.199.53

9.539.549.579.589.619.639.68

9.659.689.709.689.729.71

Adjuste

Ind

Currentdollars

108.2116.8127.3138.9148.5155.4160.3165.2

165.2165.0165.5166.4166.2166.8167.7

167.3168.2168.5168.4168.6169.4

d hourly earninnonagnc

ex,-100

1977dollars 3

100.597.493.592.693.494.994.694.1

94.293.994.194.494.093.994.0

93.594.495.195.495.495.3

gs index — totalultural z

Percent changearlie

Currentdollars

8.27.99,09.16.94.63.23.1

3.22.83.13.13.03.03.1

2.82.82.92.62.62.5

private

e from a year

1977 dollars

0.5-3.1-4.0-1.0

.91.6

.3-.5

-.8-1.0

.1

.4

.1_.4-.5

.9-.2

.91.41.41.1

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985



May r

June"

Totalnonagnc

Current dollars

$203.70219.91235.10255.20267.26280.70292.86299.09

299,09297.54299.79300.84301.19301.02303.63

303.80303.98304.68303.46303.80304.50

Avera

arivateultural '

1977 dollars 3

$189.31183.41172.74170.13168.09171.26172.78170.42

170.62169.44170.43170.74170.45169.49170.20

169.72170.58171.94171.93171.83171.36

ge gross weekly es

Manufacturing

$249.27269.34288.62318.00330.26354.08374.03385.97

385.97385.42388.54389.91391.13391.94395.91

393.72393.98394.79393.98395.60394.23

Lrnmgs

Construction

Current dollars

$318.69342.99367.78399.26426.82442.97458.51464.09

458.42462.10463.23466.83467.31461.52461.28

470.40448.59450.06465.22465.86463.64

Retail trade

$130.20138.62147.38158.03163.85171.05174.33174.64

174.64174.34174.64175.81174.63174.92175.78

175.51175.51176.09174.91174.91175.20

Percent eha year

total private n

Current dollars

7.88.06.98.54.75.04.32.1

2.61.52.32.12.72.32.5

3.12.52.42.11.91.5

ange fromearlier,onagricultural 5

1977 dollars

0.2-3.1

5.8-1.5

1.21.9

.9-1.4

-1.5-2.2

.6-.6

2

— 1.1-1.1

-.6.5.4.9.7.2

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in raanufaeturing-3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban •

and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base).

4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.5 Based on seasonally unadjusted data.


15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

1978 '.1979 r.

1980 r.1981 r.1982 r.1983 r.1984 r.

1985 '.

1982: III r....IV r....

1983: I r

n T.Ill "....IV....

1984: I r

II r.Ill r....IV....

1985: I r

TT r

m7....IV r....

1986: I r

n»

1978 r.1979 r.

1980 r.1981 r.1982 r.1983 r.1984 r.

1985 r.

1982: HI r....IV....

1983: I r

n r.m r....IV....

1984: I r

n r.m r....rv....

1985: I 'II r

m '*"."..IV....

1986: I r

II"

Output pea l lpe

Businesssector

100.899.6

99.3100.7100.3103.0105.3

106.4

100.3101.0

101.9103.5103.0103.8

104.9105.6105.5105.5

105.7106.4107.3106.4

107.3107.7

0.8-1.2

31.4

-.42.72.3

1.0

.23.0

3.96.1

-1.62.8

4.42.6

-.3-.1

.92.73.4

-3.2

3.31.6

r hour ofrsons

Nonfarmbusinesssector

100.899.3

98.899.899.2

102.4104.3

104.8

99.199.7

100.9102.7102.9103.3

103.9104.6104.4104.3

104.4104.9105.4104.5

105.6106.1

0.8-1.6

-.41.0

-.63.31.8

.5

— .12.4

5.07.3.8

1.3

2.42.9

-.7— .4

.31.82.2

-3.5

4.31.7

Outp

Businesssector

105.8107.9

106.7108.9105.5109.9118.8

122.7

105.1105.0

106.2109.2110.8113.6

116.9119.0119.5120.2

121.3122.3123.5123.8

125.3125.7

5.82.0

— 1.12.1

-3.14.28.1

3.3

-3.1-.5

4.911.75.9

10.4

12.27.51.72.5

3.63.34.11.0

4.71.3

u t '

Nonfarmbusiness

sector

106.0107.9

106.7108.5104.9110.1118.8

122.5

104.5104.2

105.8109.2111.4114.1

116.9119.1119.5120.2

121.1122.1123.3123.6

125.1125.6

Pe

6.01.9

-1.21.7

-3.34.98.0

3.0

-3.5-1.2

6.313.48.59.8

10.27.71.62.2

3.23.04.01.0

5.11.7

Hoursperse

Businesssector

19'

104.9108.3

107.5108.2105.2106.7112.8

115.3

104.8103.9

104.2105.5107.5109.4

111.4112.7113.3114.0

114.8115.0115.2116.4

116.8116.7

rcent chan

4.93.2

-.8.7

2.81.55.7

2.2

-3.4-3.4

1.05.37.77.3

7.44.82.12.6

2.6.6.7

4.3

1.4-.3

of allns 2

Nonfarmbusiness

sector

f7 = 100;

105.1108.7

108.0108.7105.7107.5114.0

116.9

105.4104.5

104.8106.3108.3110.5

112.5113.8114.5115.2

116.0116.4116.9118.2

118.5118.4

ge; quarte

5.13.5

-.7.7

-2.71.66.0

2.6

-3.4-3.5

1.25.77.68.4

7.64.72.32.6

2.91.21.84.6

.8-.0

Compenshou

Businesssector

[uarterly <

108.5119.1

131.5143.7154.9161.5168.1

175.3

156.6158.3

159.9160.9161.5163.6

165.9167.1169.0170.6

172.3174.5176.4178.0

179.1180.3

rly data a

8.59.7

10.59.27.84.24.1

4.3

7.54.5

3.92.61.65.3

5.72.84.63.8

4.25.14.43.8

2.52.7

ation perr 3


ata seasoi

108.6118.9

131.3143.6154.8161.5167.9

174.6

156.3158.2

159.9160.9161.7163.4

165.6166.9168.7170.4

172.1174.0175.4177.0

178.3179.3

seasonal]

8.69.5

10.59.47.84.34.0

4.0

7.55.1

4.42.32.04.4

5.43.24.34.2

3.94.63.23.7

3.12.2

Real comper h

Businesssector

lally adjus

100.899.4

96.795.797.398.298.1

98.8

97.297.9

98.898.497.798.0

98.197.998.198.2

98.498.799.199.0

99.2100.3

y adjusted

0.8-1.4

-2.7-1.0

1.61.0

-.1

.7

.12.9

3.7-1.6-2.6

1.1

.5-.8

.8

.1

1.01.01.8

-.5

1.04.5

sensationour 4

Nonfarmbusiness

sector

ted

100.999.2

96.695.797.298.298.0

98.4

97.097.8

98.898.497.897.9

97.997.898.098.1

98.298.498.598.4

98.899.7

annual ra

0.9-1.6

-2.7-.91.51.1.3

.4

.23.4

4.1-1.9-2.2

.1

.3— .4

.4

.5

.7

.5

.7-.6

1.63.9

Unit lab

Businesssector

107.6119.5

132.5142.7154.5156.8159.7

164.8

156.2156.8

156.8155.5156.8157.7

158.2158.3160.2161.7

163.1164.0164.4167.3

167.0167.4

tes

7.611.1

10.97.78.31.51.8

3.2

7.21.5

.1-3.3

3.32.4

1.2.2

5.03.9

3.32.41.07.2

-.71.1

or costs

Nonfarmbusiness

sector

107.7119.7

132.9144.0156.0157.7161.0

166.7

157.7158.7

158.5156.6157.1158.2

159.4159.5161.5163.3

164.8165.9166.3169.3

168.8169.1

7.711.2

11.08.38.41.12.1

3.5

7.62.6

-.6-4.7

1.23.0

3.0.3

5.14.6

3.62.71.07.4

-1.2.5

Implicdefla

Businesssector

107.3117.0

127.6139.8148.1153.0158.5

163.0

149.3150.2

151.2152.3153.4155.2

156.7157.7159.0160.3

161.4162.6163.4164.6

165.3165.9

7.39.0

9.09.65.93.33.5

2.9

5.62.4

2.53.12.84.8

4.02.63.43.2

2.73.01.93.0

1.81.4

t pricetor5


107.0116.5

127.8140.3149.2154.3159.3

164.6

150.3151.4

152.5153.6155.0156.2

157.2158.4160.0161.4

162.7164.1165.2166.2

167.1167.6

7.08.9

9.79.76.33.53.2

3.3

5.73.0

2.92.83.73.1

2.73.14.03.7

3.23.42.62.4

2.31.1

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family

workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private

benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for at! urban consumers.5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may

differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.


16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production fell 0.5 percent in June, following a decline of 0.4 percent in May. The index for June was0.2 percent below its year-earlier level.

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)

140

120

100

140

120

100

_ TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

.MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION .

DURABLE

NONDURABLE

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

1982"SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1986

INDEX, 1977 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)zzu

180

160

1 40

FINAL P

f"*

^

RODUCTS

DEFENSE ACSPACE

EQUIPMEN

.3~i

_x^>— •--''

-ID

T .X —

f

/

CONSUMERGOODS

,,,,„

-=|^^'

BUSINESS-EQUIPMENT

,

•

-.,-

Ill III Ml II

PERCENT*

90

80

70

60

— MANUFACTURING

11982 1 1983

CAPACITY

-— • 1

,,, ,,!,,,,,1984

UTILIZATIC

• - •

II Illll IIII

1985

)N RATE _

=""=;

,

1986


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1977 proportion

197819791980198119821983198419851985: June

JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986: JanFebMar r

Apr r

May r.June"

Toinduprodi

Index,1977 = 100

100.0106.5110.7108.6111.0103.1109.2121.8124.5

124.3124.1125.2125.1124.4125.4126.4

126.7125.6124.4125.2124.7124.1

talstrialction

Percentchange

from yearearlier

6.53.9

-1.92.2

-7.15.9

11.52.21.6.7

1.31.51.41.62.52.51.5.3.9.5.2

Total

84.21107.1111.5108.2110.5102.2110.2123.9127.1126.7126.9128.2127.7127.2128.4129.1129.8128.8128.0128.9128.6127.9

Industry pro

Manufacturing

Durable

49.10108.2113.9109.1111.199.9

107.7124.8128.2127.6127.9129.4128.3127.7129.2129.9130.4129.0127.7128.5127.8126.7

Suction indexes

Nondurable

35.11105.5108.2107.0109.7105.5113.7122.5125.6125.5125.6126.6126.9126.4127.3128.0129.1128.5128.3129.3129.7129.6

, 1977=100

Mining

9.83103.6106.4112.4117.5109.3102.9110.9109.0110.6108.7108.3108.4108.4106.9107.4107.4105.3102.7102.1100.498.9

Utilities

5.96103.1105.9107.3107.1104.8105.2110.9113.4113.4110.7110.3113.2112.4112.2116.5114.6112.4112.2112.8111.6112.0

Capacityrate, p*

Manufac-turing

84.284.679.378.370.374.080.880.380.180.180.780.179.680.280.480.779.879.179.579.278.6

utilizationrcent '

Industrialmaterials

86.387.181.181.171.775.382.380.280.179.579.979.579.379.280.180.279.678.578.778.377.9

1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1977—100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1977 proportion19781979198019811982198319841985

1985: JuneJulyAug...SeptOctNovDec

1986: JanFebMar 'Apr r.Mav r

June'

Total

44.77106.9111.0112.2115.2109.5114.7127.8132.0

131.6131.8133.3133.3131.9133.7134.4

134.4132.8131.5132.6131.9131.2

C

Total

25. 52104.3103.9102.7104.1101.4109.3118.2120.7

120.4120.1121.5121.8120.8122.7124.2

123.9123.2122.5124.4123.9123.7

Dnsumer go

Durablegoods

6.89103.799.988.489.782.998.5

112.6112.9

112.0111.3114.0112.9111.41 15.5116.8

116.6116.3113.0116.2113.4113.5

?inal produc

ods

Nondura-ble goods

18.63104.5105.4108.1109.3108.3113.3120.2123.6

123.5123.4124.2125.1124.3125.4127.0

126.5125.7126.0127.5127.8127.5

Produ

ts

Total '

19.25110.3120.4124.7129.9120.2121.7140.5147.0

146.6147.3149.0148.6146.6148.3147.9

148.4145.5143.4143.5142.6141.1

-ts

Equipment

Business

14.34112.2124.7125.1127.6113.6115.4134.9141.2

140.7141.3143.0142.2139.6141.7141.4

142.9141.1139.1140.3139.6138.0

Defenseand

spaceequip-ment

3.67101.2105.6115.4119.8133.0143.1157.9173.6

173.4173.9175.5177.5178.7180.7180.7

179.3176.7178.5178.8179.5179.7

Intern

Total

12.94106.9110.8106.9107.3101.7111.2124.9130.6

131.4130.7132.0132.3131.5132.7132.9

134.4134.1134.1135.0134.9134.0

lediate pro

Con-structionsupplies

,5.9,5106.9108.7100.698.688.3

100.6114.0118.9

119.2119.4121.5121.3120.0120.9120.7

124.0123.5123.5124.2124.3123.0

iucts

Busi-

sup-plies

6.99106.9112.7112.3114.7113.1120.3134.2140.5

141.7140.3140.9141.7141.2142.7143.3

143.2143.1143.0144.1143.9

Matf

Total

42.28105.9110.3105.3107.796.7

102.8114.6114.7

114.3113.8114.5114.2114.2114.3115.9

116.2115.4114.0114.4113.9113.4

rials

Energy

11.69101.1104.1105.5104.7101.298.4

104.0104.4

105.1103.5102.7103.4104.2102.5105.8

104.1103.9102.7102.9102.6102.0

1 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately.

[1977 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1977 proportion

19781979198019811982198319841985


1986: JanFebMar 'Apr r

May'Junep

Primari

Total

5.33107.0108.590.495.065.873.082.480.6

78.379.082.080.383.183.681.7

84.980.777.478.176.972.2

metals

Iron andsteel

3.49107.5108.0

86.392.557.566.173.570.6

67.668.771.669.774.475.372.0

75.569.964.965.663.4

Fabri-catedmetal

products

6.46105.7109.4101.8101.686.689.1

102.8107.9

107.4107.3107.8107.5108.4107.9108.8

109.3109.4108.5108.6107.8107.2

Durable rn

Non-electricalmachin-

ery

9.54111.7122.6123.3129.8115.6118.3142.0146.4

145.6147.5149.2146.5143.0145.6146.0

146.2144.6143.2141.6142.5141.5

inufactures

Electricalmachin-

ery

7.15112.9125.7130.3134.1128.4143.8172.4169.3

169.5165.7166.1165.1165.1168.9171.9

167.9165.5165.6167.1166.4163.6

Transpequip

Total

9.13106.3108.396.995.187.699.2

113.6123.2

121.8123.7126.8126.2124.5126.5126.8

128.9128.1124.3127.9125.6126.8

artationment

Motorvehicles

andparts

5.25104.695.971.171.666.885.8

105.6112.8

110.5112.8116.8115.3111.7114.5115.4

117.8117.8110.4114.8110.8112.8

Lumberand

products

2.30102.4102.092.990.182.8

100.2109.1112.9

113.5113.0114.8115.9116.5115.6116.5

119.9118.2118.5119.0

Nc

Appar-el

prod-ucts

2.79103.198.397.396.187.395.3

102.8101.8

99.2100.6100.4101.8102.6103.9105.0

105.8103.6104.0104.3103.6

ndurable

Print-ing and

pub-lishing

4.54107.8112.7115.1118.6120.2129.8147.9155.2

156.7154.3156.3156.2157.0159.0158.4

158.9155.4158.1160.0161.1160.5

nanufactu

Chemi-calsand

prod-ucts

8.05106.8111.4106.4112.6103.8114.0121.7127.1

126.4126.4128.2129.0127.9128.0128.5

130.5130.9131.1132.0132.0

res

Foods

7.96104.3106.7111.4113.7114.9120.4127.1131.0

131.8132.2132.6132.5130.7131.4132.6

133.2133.8133.0134.0135.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1978 r

1979 '1980 *1981 '1982 r

1983 *1984 r

1985 r

1985: May r

June T

July 'Aug r

Sept r

Oct r

Nov r

Dec r.

1986: Jan r

Feb r

Mar r.Apr r

May "June"

Total newconstructionexpenditures

224.7250.3249.0257.8244.4279.2327.2355.6

352.0352.9355.1353.3361.3374.0357.6365.6

373.4373.9368.0371.6374.7

Total

179.0201.5194.0204.4193.6228.5272.0292.8

287.6288.4290.3289.8296.0312.0294.4300.6

305.4305.7298.9301.2300.3

Resi

Total '

I

110.4117.2101.1100.085.4

126.6155.1158.8

151.6154.3156.8154.9161.0174.8158.2161.8

163.4164.7165.6167.8169.8

Private

[ential

l\e\v nousing

illions of dollars

86.290.170.470.257.795.7

115.1116.0

Annual rates

115.2115.4115.3115.5116.1117.2117.5118.7

122.8124.7126.5129.3131.9

Commercialand

industrial 2

30.742.046.755.058.753.868.682.7

83.680.880.682.184.384.185.088.2

88.487.581.482.179.3

Other

37.942.346.249.449.548.148.251.3

52.553.452.852.850.753.051.250.6

53.553.551.851.351.2

Federal,State, and

iocal

45.648.855.053.350.850.755.262.8

64.464.564.863.565.362.163.264.9

68.068.369.270.574.4

Constructio

Total valueindex

(1977=100)

114.0121.0108.0112.0111.0138.0150.0161.0

161154164164167168162162

146162149176160161

n contracts 3

Commercialand industrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

9771,059

904919690756955

1,064

Annual rates

1,008836

1,1031,0971,1181,1041,111

951

848941840

1,011921911

1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential im-

Provements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential.2 Includes hotels and motels, previously included in residential.3 F. W. Dodge scries.

NOTE.—Scries for new construction expenditures revised beginning 1964.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemsCompany, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985

1985: MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec


May r

June p

Total

2,020.31,745.11,292.21,084.21,062.21,703.01,749.51,741.8

1,6841,6931,6731,7371,6531,7841,6541,882

2,0342,0011,9602,0191,8601,845

Units started, by

1 unit

1,433.31,194.1

852.2705.4662.6

1,067.61,084.21,072.4

1,0411,0361,0681,0711,0061,1181,0061,098

1,3351,2021,2211,2421,2471,223

New private

type of structure

2-4 units

125.0122.0109.591.180.0

113.5121.493.4

Seasonal

10595869785807683

10711584798378

housing units

5 or more units

462.0429.0330.5287.7319.6522.0544.0576.1

y adjusted annu

538562519569562586572701

592684655698530544

Unitsauthorized

1,800.51,551.81,190.6

985.51,000.51,605.21,681.81,733.3

al rates

1,7271,7171,7091,7821,8461,7031,6681,839

1,8611,8081,8341,8851,7881,792

Unitscompleted

1,867.51,870.81,501.61,265.71,005.51,390.31,652.21,703.3

1,6351,7581,7221,7201,7781,5411,7211,762

1,7781,725

r 1,8061,6831,814

New prh

Homes sold

817709545436412623639688

684710745708681637722729

735r741r924884780703

ate homes

Homes forsale at end of

period 1

4143 398

336272251300356349

355354351348350353353349

352r352r338

337340343

Vacancy rate

housing units(percent) 2

5.05.45.45.05.35.75.96.5

6.2

6.8

6.7

6.9

7.3

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not striudy comparable

with earlier data.3 New series beginning March 1979.

NOTE.— Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 perdata are for 16,000 places.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

it-issuing places and for 1978-83

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeManufacturing and trade sales fell 1.9 percent in May and inventories fell $2.1 billion. According to advance data,retail sales rose 0.2 percent in June following a rise of 0.7 percent in May.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)650600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

1001982

"MANUFACTURING AND'TRADE INVENTORIES

MANUFACTURINGAND TRADE SALES

1983 1984 1985 1986

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED



140

130

120

110

100

90

80

RETAIL INVENTORIES

70 linnli

X"RETAIL SALES

RATIO*1.80

1.60

1 20

1 00

_ INVENTC

w^n* \«-iM i i i i iM i

1982

DRY-SALES RATIO

RETAIL

'%--^><t^--^| -x>sj--

MANUFACTURINGAND TRADE

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n1983 1984 1985

-

^S ~*S

\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \

1986


19781979198019811982198319841985

1985: May r

JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986: JanPebMarApr r

May "June"

Manufacttra<

260,805298,334328,058356,919344,656368,724410,737424,091

424,379r418,416421,524428,015427,691425,689431,326432,797

431,713426,854420,230428,455420,361

jring ande 1

Invento-ries 3

399,608451,460494,105528,105509,555520,328575,098583,148

577,813580,137580,318578,635578,742581,516582,381583,148

584,968585,176588,178588,599586,532

Whol

Sales 2

66,66979,47293,704

102,01396,290

100,424113,404114,494

115,749111,073113,301115,146114,344113,675115,762116,852

115,648113,380112,495114,608108,778

esale

Invento-

Millions

86,40599,262

113,478118,259118,149120,265131,544135,940

133,485134,931134,949134,869134,410134,810134,831135,940

136,624136,561137,056137,083137,361

Total

of dollars,

67,23174,92679,96386,77789,33997,858

107,755114,495

113,992r 113,472

114,430116,276119,118114,785115,433116,861

117,349117,200116,684117,715

T 118,515118,700

Sales 2

Durablegoodsstores

seasonally i

23,36825,52924,91427,08928,05933,04138,81742,851

42,587r42,30942,76844,20946,74842,35542,63143,882

44,18743,94943,27944,874

r 45,33045,402

Re

Nondura-ble goods

stores

idjusted

43,86349,39755,04959,68861,27964,81768,93971,645

71,405r71,163

71,66272,06772,37072,43072,80272,979

73,16273,25173,40572,841

r 73,18573,298

tail

Total

102,694111,098116,346127,201126,497139,381157,845165,324

159,428159,528160,333159,078160,302164,262165,557165,324

167,987169,379171,551172,158170,819

Inventories 3

Durablegoodsstores

50,13654,10855,11760,32758,95266,92877,14282,875

78,67779,14379,20578,04278,42581,66883,05682,875

84,75585,86388,13288,26387,227

Nondura-ble goods

stores

52,55856,99061,22966,87467,54572,45380,70382,449

80,75180,38581,12881,03681,87782,59482,50182,449

83,23283,51683,41983,89583,592

Inventory-s

Manufac-turing

trade 1

1.441.431.451.441.511.381.341.37

1.361.391.381.351.351.371.351.35

1.351.371.401.371.40

ales ratio 4

Retail

1.431.441.421.411.411.341.391.40

1.40r1.41

1.401.371.351.431.431.41

1.431.451.471.461.44

1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Monthly average for year and total for month.3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average idata, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.


onthly sales; for monthly

20


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn June, manufacturers' shipments and inventories were unchanged from their May levels while new and unfilledorders fell.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

200

160

120

80

40

SHIPME

*_

~- ,_

MM,| , ,M |

NTS

.^. ~*^ —

DURAI

,

s^— NON

T 1 1 1 1 ( 1 1 f 1 1

— v— TOTAL -

LE GOODS

.1 --

DURABLE GC

1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1

— -

)ODS

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T 1 1 1

—*.s*.*

1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1


200

401982 1986

360320

240

80

<10

— INVENT—

— -.

I'M'1!""

ORIES

C

NON

1 t 1 1 1 1 t t 1 M

r^r~TOTAL

""T""

URABLE GO

• — 7DURABLE G(

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

3DS

DODS

iiiiihiin

—

—

— .— _„

M i l l ) 1 ! ! ! ?

RATIO*2.2

2.0

1.8

1.4

1 2

INVENT

_-

1 1 1 1 1 1 u 1 1 (

1982

ORY-SHIPA/

K

>\ 1 1 \ 1 1 M 1 1 11983

\ENTS RAT

rH1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11984

O

—

^-~S^~ _

1 1 ] \ 1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1985 1986

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985


'986: JanFebMarAprMay"June p

Manufa

Total

126,905143,936154,391168,129159,027170,441189,578195,102

193,871193,793196,593194,229197,229200,131199,084

198,716196,274191,051196,132193,068193,121

cturers' shipr

Durablegoods

67,84876,06077,55083,87276,69384,95198,502

103,649

102,657102,478105,311103,656106,479107,007105,777

105,631105,545102,693106,592

r 103,672104,218

nents l

Nondura-ble goods

59,05767,87676,84184,25782,33485,49191,07691,452

91,21491,31591,28290,57390,75093,12493,307

93,08590,72988,35889,54089,39688,903

Manufa

M

210,509241,100264,281282,645264,909260,682285,709281,884

285,678285,036284,688284,030282,444281,993281,884

280,357279,236279,571279,358278,352278,259

iturers' inver

Durablegoods

llions of do

137,891160,533174,620186,347175,103171,629191,109189,164

192,239192,163192,037191,930190,508190,284189,164

188,518187,644188,333188,031187,637187,169

tories 2

Nondura-ble goods

liars, seasoi

72,61880,56789,66196,29889,80689,05394,60092,720

93,43992,87392,65192,10091,93691,70992,720

91,83991,59291,23891,32790,71591,090

ft

lally adjust

131,546147,403156,161167,752157,255173,259191,634195,803

198,261195,793198,782197,332195,381196,865201,213

201,133198,559192,996193,151192,122191,536

anufacturers

Durabl

Total

id

72,33979,45179,36083,55374,99687,631

100,611104,305

106,780104,370107,661106,641104,495103,796107,531

108,194107,545104,682103,747

r 102,624102,677

new orders

3 goods

Capital

industries,

defense

19,45823,23123,25924,05020,68122,76427,01727,215

27,98426,68527,55429,24027,09225,78830,566

24,28828,63726,54026,179

r26,14526,476

i

Nondura-ble goods

59,20767,95376,80184,19982,26085,62791,02491,499

91,48191,42391,12190,69190,88693,06993,682

92,93991,01488,31489,40489,49888,859

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders 3

259,770302,145323,393319,094296,918330,924355,640363,809

359,502361,502363,691366,794364,946361,680363,809

366,226368,511370,456367,475366,529364,944

Manufac-turers'inven-tory —

shipmentsratio 4

1.571.571.661.641.731.521.451.46

1.471.471.451.461.431.411.42

1.411.421.461.421.441.44

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same a2 Book value, end of period.3 End of period.

4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; formonthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.


21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn June, the producer price index for all finished goods and for finished consumer foods were unchanged,seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer goods excluding food fell 0.1 percent. Prices of capital equipmentrose 0.1 percent.

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

340

300

260

200

180i

FINISHED

y

_ /' >

/"* -'V^ * . ^

«' </ X'

X/ " ' '

IJ-ff 1 1 1 1 1 1 11978

GOODS

/' N~2 ''

//' XV

,'

Illllllllll1979

TO

^/•'/^T

t'S"^ r

W

inillllli|1980

SE

TAL FINISHEDGOODS .

/-\—

y^"CAPITAL EQ

iiiiiliini1981

ASONALLY ADJUSTED

CE

.^

•z?*^

^-\

JIPMENT

Illllllllll

1982

ONSUMER GOXCLUDING FOC

3-

j- — — 'XN

iiiiiiuiii1983

DOS3DS

-'***'

C

Illllllllll1984

*~1

&-^

ONSUMER FO<

Illllllllll1985

_»-•••

v __/•

3DS

Illllllllll1986

J4V

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180


[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985


1986: JanFeb r.MarAprMayJune

Totalfinishedgoods

195.9217.7247.0269.8280.7285.2291.1293.7

293.6294.3293.4291.8294.4296.4298.3

296.1291.3288.6286.8288.6288.5

Con-sumerfoods

207.2226.2239.5253.6259.3261.8273.3271.2

268.4270.9269.0266.4270.8273.7276.5

274.9270.3271.2271.6274.7274.7

F

Total

190.7213.3247.8273.3285.8290.8294.8299.0

299.7299.8299.3298.0300.1301.7303.3

300.9296.1292.1289.5290.8290.7

Fini

nished go

Total

186.7211.5250.8276.5287.8291.4294.1297.3

298.4298.4297.5296.3298.0300.0301.9

298.8291.8285.8281.7283.5283.2

shed goods

)ds excluding

Consumer gc

Durable

166.9183.2206.2218.6226.7233.1236.8241.5

242.1242.1242.3239.8243.0243.8243.6

242.3242.9243.9245.6245.8246.0

consumer foo

ods

Nondurable

200.0231.3283.9319.6333.6335.3337.3339.3

340.7340.7339.0338.9339.3342.3346.0

341.3328.7317.5308.9312.0311.4

Is

Capitalequip-ment

199.2216.5239.8264.3279.4287.2294.0300.5

300.4300.7301.3299.7302.7303.4303.8

303.3303.7304.3305.3305.5305.7

Totalfinished

con-sumergoods

194.9217.9248.9271.3281.0284.6290.3291.8

291.6292.5291.2289.6292.1294.5296.7

294.1287.8284.1281.5283.8283.6

Interrr

Total

215.6242.2280.3306.0310.4312.3320.0318.7

318.5317.8317.4317.2317.5318.6319.9

318.4313.8310.0307.0306.3306.4

ediate ma

Foodsand

feeds '

203.1226.1252.6250.3239.4247.9253.1232.8

230.7229.7226.5224.9229.4232.3233.9

232.8229.5228.8226.9228.6228.3

terials

Other

216.5244.4282.3310.1315.7317.1325.0325.0

325.0324.3324.1323.9324.0325.0326.2

324.7320.0316.0312.9312.1312.2

Or,

Total

234.4274.3304.6329.0319.5323.6330.8306.1

303.8303.0296.1293.1302.2308.0307.0

302.9286.6279.9269.7275.9273.0

ide maten

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

216.2247.9259.2257.4247.8252.2259.5235.0

230.6229.5221.6217.7231.0240.8239.7

233.8225.4222.9216.1224.9223.2

als

Other

272.3330.0401.0482.3473.9477.4484.5459.2

461.2461.1456.1454.9455.4453.1452.4

451.8418.7403.3385.8386.5381.2

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing am Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonallyadjusted. The index was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level.

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

340

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE)

340

320

1978 1979 1980 1981

ALL ITEMS

1982 1983 1984 1985

300

280

260

240

220

200

1801986

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABf COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

Bel. imp.3

197819791980198119821983198419851985: June



Allitems 1

NSA

100.0195.4217.4246.8272.4289.1298.4311.1322.2322.3322.8323.5324.5325.5326.6327.4

328.4327.5326.0325.3326.3327.9

Food

18.5211.4234.5254.6274.6285.7291.7302.9309.8309.1309.2309.6310.7311.1313.2315.2315.9313.8314.1315.0316.4316.7

Total '

37.9202.8227.6263.3293.5314.7323.1336.5349.9349.4350.3351.7352.2353.3355.2356.2357.1356.8357.5358.5358.2360.1

22.3210.4239.7281.7314.7337.0344.8361.7382.0

381.1383.1385.3386.1387.9390.5391.9393.3394.8397.3400.7401.0401.8

Hou

She

Renters'

1982=100)

7.3

103.0108.6115.4115.3115.8116.3116.7117.5118.2118.5118.8119.2119.8121.1121.2121.7

sing

Iter

Home-owners'

costs (Dec.1982 = 100)

14.4

102.5107.3113.1112.9113.6114.3114.5114.9115.7116.2116.6117.0118.0118.9119.1119.1

Mainte-nanceand

repairs

NSA

0.5233.0256.4285.7314.4334.1346.3359.2368.9367.6367.8370.6368.7368.5372.7373.7

379.1379.6367.5367.6367.1366.6

Fueland

otherutilities

8.1216.0239.3278.6319.2350.8370.3387.3393.6394.7394.2393.6394.4393.7395.4396.5397.2392.4388.4385.7382.3388.9

Appar-

upkeep

5.0159.6166.6178.4186.9191.8196.5200.2206.0

205.9205.6205.9206.8207.7208.4208.3207.7206.6206.3206.9206.5205.8

Tr

Total '

21.4185.5212.0249.7280.0291.5298.4311.7319.9320.2320.3319.8319.3320.5322.6323.9325.5320.9311.8304.0304.9307.4

ansportati

Newcars

3.4153.8166.0179.3190.2197.6202.6208.5215.2215.0215.2215.7216.2217.0217.7218.4218.6219.5219.9221.2223.0224.4

on

Motorfuel

5.5

196.3265.6369.1410.9389.4376.4370.7373.8378.8379.1377.4375.2374.3377.4379.4

380.1357.2314.8279.5286.4295.0

Medicalcare

6.5219.4239.7265.9294.5328.7357.3379.5403.1402.6404.3406.6409.0410.9413.0415.7417.5420.4424.5427.2429.8432.8

Ener-gy2

11.3220.4275.9361.1410.0416.1419.3423.6426.5430.3429.4427.6426.8425.8428.4430.3430.8414.3387.5365.2366.2374.8

All itemsless

food,energy,

andshelter

48.0179.1191.5208.3228.1245.6258.4271.2281.6280.9281.4282.1282.6284.1285.4286.2287.5288.0288.6289.1289.4290.4

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,

etc. also included through 1982.3 Relative importance, December 1985.

NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costsand therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.


23


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985


1986: JanFeb 'Mar '.AprMay r

June

Chi

Totalfinishedgoods

Cha

9.212.811.87.13.7

.61.71.8

Ct]

-0.2.2

-.3— .5

.9

.7

.6

-.7-1.6-.9-.6

.6-.0

nge from pr

Consum

Foods

nge, Dec.

11.77.47.51.42.12.33,5

.5

ange, mon

-0.1.9

-.7-1.0

1.71.11.0

-.6-1.7

.3

.11.10

Bceding peric

r goods

Exclud-ing foods

o Dec., N>

8.517.514.28.54.2-.8

.82.0

th to mont

-0.40-.3— .4

.6

.7

.6

1.0-2.3

2.1-1.4

.6-.1

d

Capitalequip-ment

3A

7.98.8

11.49.23.91.91.82.7

h

0.1.1.2

-.51.0.2.1

— .2.1.2.3.1.1

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

2.21.1

— 1.1-2.4

.14.29.2

2.3-6.7

-12.4-12.0-3.7

i

from 3 month

Consum

Foods

-5.7.1.6

-2.9.1

7.216.0

6.2-4.9-7.4

4.76.75.3

s earlier, ann

r goods

Excludingfoods

6.11.2

-2.9-2.8

.53.47.8

1.1-10.5-19.7-21.0-10.9-3.6

ml rate

Capitalequipment

1.51.51.7

-.92.72.85.6

.8

.4

.72.72.41.9

Change

Totalfinishedgoods

1.01.71.0

— .1.6

1.53.2

1.2-1.4-2.2-5.1-5.2-6.5

from 6 month

Consum

Foods

-4.5-2.0-3.3—4.4

03.86.1

3.01.03.6.6.7

-1.3

s earlier, ann

r goods

Excludingfoods

2.62.92.81.6.3.2

2.4

.3-3.8-7.0

— 10.6-10.7-12.0

jal rate

Capitalequipment

3.32.61.8.3

2.12.32.3

1.71.63.11.71.41.3

Changefromyear

earlier,total

finishedgoods

NSA

7.811.113.59.24.01.62,1.9

1.1.9.8.2

1.11.41.8

1.3-.2

-1.4-2.1-1.7-1.7


CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

19781979198019811982198319841985



Allitems l

9.013.312.48.93.93.84.03.8

0.2.2.22.4.6.4

.3— .4— .4-.3

.2

.5

Food

11.810.210.24.33.12.63.82.7

0.2.0.1.4.1.7.6

.2^.7

.1

.3

.4

.1

Total1

9.915.213.710.23.63.54.24.3

0.3.3.4.1.3.5.3

.3-.1

.2

.3-.1

.5

Total1

11.517.415.19.92.44.75.26.0

0.4.5.6.2.5.7.4

.4

.4

.6

.9

.1

.2

Housing

Shelter

Rent-ers'

C

5.15.96.3

0.5.4.4.3.7.6.3

.3

.3

.51.1.1.4

Home-owners'

lange, D

4.55.15.9

Cha

0.3.6.6.2.3.7.4

.3

.3

.9

.8

.20

Fueland

otherutili-ties

ecember

5.916.013.614.59.71.84.21.9

inge, me

0.5.1

— .2.2O

.4

.3

.2-1.2-1.0-.7

.91.7

Ap-pareland

to Dec

3.25.56.83.61.62.92.02.9

nth to n

0.3— .1

.1

.4

.4

.3-.0

-.3.51

.3-.2-.3

Tr

Total '

mber, J>

7.718.214.711.0

1.73.93.12.6

lonth

0.0

-.2-.2

.4

.7

.4

.5-1.4-2.8-2.5

.3

.8

msportati

New

SA

6.27.47.56.81.63.42.43.5

0.2.1.2.2.4.3.3

.1

.42.6.8.6

M3

Motor

8.552.218.99.4

-6.5-1.7-2.4

3.0

0.3.1

-.4-.6-.2

.8

.5

.26.0

-11.9-11.2

2.53.0

Medi-eal

care

8.810.110.012.511.06.46.16.7

0.7.4.6.6.5.5.7

.4

.71.0.6.6.7

Ener-gy2

8.037.418.111.91.3

-.5.2

1.8

0.1-.2-.4

n

-.2.6.4

.1-3.8-6.5-5.8

.32.3

Allitemsless

food,energy,

and

6.57.29.99.46.15.04.43.7

0.2.2.2.2.5.5.3

.5

.2

.2

.2

.1

.3

Adden

Fromprevi-

4.0

2.6

4.3

1.5

-1.7

dum: All ite(annua

From3

monthsearlier

3.32.62.62.43.14.55.3

5.11.2

-1.9-4.3-2.1

1.5

us, percentrate)

From6

monthsearlier

3.63.63.42.82.93.63.8

4.12.91.6

.3— .4-.2

hange

Fromyear

earlier

NSA

7.711.313.510.46.13.24.33.6

3.73.63.43.23.23.63.8

3.93.22.31.61.61.7

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,

etc., also included through 1982.3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.

NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner-ship costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods.


24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers in July were 2.5 percent above their June level. Prices paid by farmers in July were

unchanged from their April level.

INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

PRICES PAID

I l l l I l l l l l l l l l l

PRICES RECEIVED -

INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

160

140

120

100

80

imiii l i iml 60RATI140

100

80

y-j

——^ — _ -|

—I l l l l l l l l l l

1978

r — i i i i i n i i i i

1979

i . 1


1980

.


1981

RATIO

"•< — 1


1982

r"~~- s

i i i i i n i i i i1983

,


1984

RA

—

—

'"•"•»>_*-•*>•. - -

I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l

1985 1986

TIO!'140

120

100

80

I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1977-100]

Period

197819791980198119821983198419851985: June


1986: JanFebMarAprMay r

JuneJuly

Pri

All farmproducts

115132134139133135142

r!28r!29r!26r!21r!20

123127128

124122122121123121124

:es received by farm

105116125134121128139

r!20123

r!21rl!4

112111

rl!4118113111111114114109105

ers

Livestock andproducts

124147144143145141146136

134130128128134138137

135133132127131133142

F

All commodities,services,

interest, taxes,and wage rates 1

108123138

r!51157

r!61164163

164163162162162162162163163(3)

r!61(3)(3)

161

rices paid by farmer

Productionitems, interest,

taxes, and wagerates

109125139151

r!56159161157158156156155154155155156155(3)

r!53(3)(3)

153

s

Productionitems

108125138148150153155151

r!52150149148148149149150149(3)

r!46(3)(3)

145

Ratio 2

10610797

r9285848679

r79r77

75r74

76787976757575

4 764 75

77

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,

and wage rates.3 Not available.

4 Derived using prices paid index for April.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexeshave been converted to a 1977—100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESIn June, growth in Ml and M2 slowed, while growth in M3 was about unchanged.

BILLIOh3,4003,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

700

600

500

400

300

-IS OF DOLLAR

—

^-]

1

1 in ii

1978

AVERAGES OF DAILY

OURCE BOARD OF G

5*(RATIO SCA

.^-

_^-~

mill

1979

FIGURES; SEASONAL

OVERNORS OF THE FE

F-i

-^

.- — --'

Min ium

1980

Y ADJUSTED

DERAL RESERVE SYSTE

p-—""

_,.

"

'

1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1

1981

M3

-*-"•

— — 'VM2

.-—-^

,,,, ,

1982

__^_---~

,-— —

- ^1\Ml

, ,,,,,

1983

B

p-^-^^1

_ - '1

,,,

1984

LLIONS OF DC

^_^— — I

"'" |

^ — -

1

1985

COUNCIL OF

LLARS*(RATIO

r"^~,

_

_--^

_

, , , , ,1986

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SCALE)3,4003,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

700

600

500

400

300

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec

1985: JuneJulyAugSeptOc?NovDec

1986: JanFebMar

MayJunep

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,travelers' checks,

and othercheckable

deposits (OCDs)

363,0388.7414.2441.1479.9527.1558.5626.6

590.9596.2604.8611.5614.2620.1626.6

627.2631.0638.4646.1658.7666.7

M2

Ml plus overnightKPs and

Eurodollars,MATMF balances(general purpose

and broker/dealer),MMDAs, and

savings and smalltime deposits

1,388.91,497.51,630.31,792.81,952.62,186.02,373.82,565.8

2,479.02,496.12,515.42,529.52,538.42,550.82,565.8

2,569.02,576.62,591.12,620.92,647.92,668.9

M3

M2 plus largetime deposits,

term RPs, termEurodollars, andinstitution-only

MMMF balances

1,646.41,803.21,987.42,233.62,443.52,697.3

' 2,986.5r3,199.9

'3,097.0r3, 112.1'3,130.1T3, 150.2r3, 164.9r3,180.2T S , 199.9

3,222.93,239.63,260.23,289.13,304.53,322.5

L

M3 plusother liquid

assets

1,909.02,114.82,323.32,593.72,850.13,163.53,532.3

' 3,837.0r3,665.7' 3,683.2r3,711.2r3,739.2' 3,760.7r3,798.2r3,837.0

3,859.03,877.23,890.53,913.23,944.5

Debt

Debt ofdomestic

nonfinancialsectors

(monthlyaverage) *

3,169.43,554.93,894.54,269.74,661.35,192.05,952.06,809.8

6,320.26,389.86,460.36,525.36,592.06,680.36,809.8

6,913.86,963.97,012.37,069.47,129.5

Perce

Ml

8.37.16.66.58.89.86.0

12.2

11.912.212.914.213.813.312.410.78.99.0

10.712.813.2

nt changemonths

M2

8.07.88.9

10.08.9

12.08.68.1

9.18.27.98.48.78.27.1

5.94.94.96.67.88.2

from yearearlier 2

M3

11.89.5

10.212.49.4

10.410.77.1

'7.56.7

r6.4r6.9r7.57.4

r6.8

7.27.17.18.08.07.8

or 6

Debt

13.312.29.69.69.2

11.414.614.4

12.812.713.113.313.314.016.1

17.116.215.515.013.9

1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local govern-ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.

2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli-er at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.


26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1978: Dec1979: Dee1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec

1985:JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986:JanFebMarApr r

May r

June ".

Cur-rency

97.6106.4116.7124.1134.3148.3158.5170.6

164.4165.3166.9167.7168.7169.8170.6

171.9172.9173.9174.4175.8176.6

De-mand

de-posits

253.5261.1265.3234.6237.9242.7248.4271.5

259.0260.4263.1266.4266.0267.8271.5

268.9269.2273.2275.7281.6284.9

Othercheck-able

depos-its

(OCDs)

8.517.428.078.0

103.4131.3146.3178.6

161.8164.8169.0171.5173.7176.7178.6

180.5183.1185,2189.9195.1199.0

Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(KPs),

net, plusover-nightEuro-dollars

NSA

20.321.228.335.938.853.856.369.6

60.860.763.664.264.765.869.6

68.067.566.466.967.164.0

Moneymutua

bala

Gener-al

pur-poseand

broker/dealer

NSA

6.433.461.6

150.6185.2138.2167.5176.5

175.4175.8176.8176.7177.0176.8176.5

177.7181.0186.2191.4193.4197.7

market1 fundrices

Insti-tutiononly

NSA

3.19.5

15.238.051.143.262.764.6

67.165.063.662.363.364.564.6

67.367.770.274.176.175.0

Moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

NSA

0.0.0.0.0

43.2379.2417.0512.0

478.1487.2495.2499.8504.1509.5512.0

515.7516.3520.5525.2530.8540.4

Sav-ings

depos-its

482.0423.9401.4344.8357.9306.6289.7303.6

293.6296.7299.7300.3302.3303.7303.6

304.0304.9306.9311.4318.5325.0

Smalldenom-ination

timedepos-i ts1

521.5635.3730.2825.1852.8785.2887.5880.3

890.3888.0880.9878.3875.7876.0880.3

885.9891.0894.7896.2891.2885.9

Largedenom-ination

timedepos-its 1

195.1222.1259.0301.8327.8329.9413.9436.5

422.7418.3421.0425.6429.7432.9436.5

447.9451.2

r450.5452.1446.3445.4

Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(KPs)

NSA

26.629.534.036.034.551.862.265.5

57.155.757.158.459.462.865.5

68.269.870.668.767.765.2

TermEuro-dollars(net)

NSA

31.844.750.367.581.791.583.1

r76.7

r78.2r77.6r78.8r78.9r78.2r78.4r76.7

'76.0r79.2r82.781.078.377.6

Qa-iroav-ings

bonds

80.379.672.367.868.071.274.379.5

76.576.777.278.078.579.079.5

79.9r80.581.181.882.6

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

81.1107.8133.4149.6184.4214.9266.0307.1

281.9279.2277.3280.6280.9299.5307.1

304.1305.9298.0298.3310.6

Bank-ers'

accept-ances

22.027.232.139.944.344.543.641.1

44.543.743.643.243.943.141.1

41.542.141.641.040.1

C/irriOni-mercialpaper

79.297.098.1

102.8109.9135.6161.8209.5

165.7171.6182.9187.2192.5196.4209.5

210.6209.2209.5203.0206.7

1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

NOTE.—See note p. 26.

Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.


CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]

Period

1976: Dec1977: Dec1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec

1985: MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec


May"

Ins

Total

187,782221,475261,976296,483297,667314,321327,173376,239453,580535,098

488,862493,253500,039506,090516,420522,978528,621535,098

542,753547,852550,939555,236560,625

tallment credit

Automobile

66,82180,94898,739

112,475112,255120,020125,369145,908173,122206,482

187,533189,459191,201192,923198,656201,994203,766206,482

210,661213,342214,361215,239218,058

outstanding

Revolving

16,59536,68945,20253,35754,89460,75066,00778,36998,514

118,296

108,372109,260110,904112,373113,850115,218117,050118,296

119,682120,724122,131123,442124,367

(end of perio

Mobilehome

15,73816,36216,92118,20719,11920,38220,99822,19424,18425,461

24,67024,76825,01525,17325,34125,32025,31525,461

25,37125,57325,58425,51325,505

d)

Other

88,62887,476

101,114112,444111,399113,169114,799129,768157,760184,859

168,287169,766172,919175,621178,573180,446182,490184,859

187,039188,212188,863191,041192,694

Net

Total

20,73933,69340,50134,507

1,18416,65412,85249,06677,34181,518

6,3304,3916,7866,051

10,3306,5585,6436,477

7,6555,0993,0874,2965,389

change in in

Automo-bile

9,83214,12717,79113,736-2207,7655,349

20,53927,21433,360

3,0071,9261,7421,7225,7333,3381,7722,716

4,1792,6821,019

8782,819

stallment ere

Revolving

2,08820,0948,5138,1551,5375,8565,257

12,36220,14519,782

955888

1,6441,4691,4771,3681,8321,246

1,3861,0421,4071,311

925

dit outstandii

Mobilehome

350624559

1,286912

1,263616

1,1961,9901,277

10098

247158168

-215

146

-90203

11-71

8

ig1

Other

8,469-1,15213,63811,330

1,0451,7701,630

14,96927,99227,099

2,2681,4793,1532,7022,9521,8732,0442,369

2,1801,173

6512,1781,653

1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from precedingmonth.


27


BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVESCommercial and industrial loans rose 0.4 percent in June following a decline of 0.2 percent in May.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

2,2002,0001,8001,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

160

120

80

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

2,2002,0001,8001,600

1,400

1,200

ALL COM/

—

"I-—-- '

—

—

muli i f i f^978

AERCIAL BANK

•—

miilmu\9T>

s

^r**-*. • •"*

..

mnlfim}9SO

•

LO

iimtnm^98^

TOTAL

rJL_— 1

- \ANS AND LEAS

U.S. G0\

mulnm1982

-——

— •.«—•" "~ "*

ES •

ERNMENT SEC

I t l l l l lUt l

1983

-

URITIES

DTHER SECURI

1 ( 1 1 ( 1 ( 1 1 ( 1

1984

^_-— -

.. .

/

IES

((Il l l l l l l l

1985

_

-

—

~

nmlmn1986

1,000

800

600

400

200

160

120

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1978: Dec1979: Dec1980: Dec1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1985: June r

July r

Aug r

Sept T.OcfNov r

Dec r

1986: Jan r.Feb r

Mar r

Apr r.May".June "

Total loansand

securities 2

1,014.41,136.21,240.51,308.21,401.11,553.51,722.61,900.41,808.61,822.21,833.91,847.21,855.51,876.01,900.41,930.01,935.51,944.61,947.91,957.51,963.8

Al

Loans a

Total *

747.5849.9915.4968.4

1,033.91,123.71,319.71,449.71,388.21,398.21,408.01,418.01,424.01,436.81,449.71,469.31,473.71,491.81,495.81,501.51,505.4

commercial ban

nd leases

Commercialand industrial

loans

246.2291.3327.4355.9392.5414.0472.9499.5487.6488.5489.7492.1492.7495.7499.5502.1502.4506.1507.8506.7508.7

is1

U.S.Government

securities

137.6144.4170.6179.2201.9259.7260.9273.1273.1275.4275.1275.5274.2276.0273.1268.2273.6269.5270.0274.1274.9

129.3142.0154.5160.6165.3170.1142.1177.6147.2148.5150.7153.6157.3163.3177.6192.5188.1183.3182.1181.9183.6

R

res

Total

27.8529.1530.9932.1934.4136.1639.5145.6142.6743.0843.6543.8844.2444.8545.6145.8846.3746.8747.28

r48.5849.45

Depo

eserves adjustfor changes ierve requirem

borrowed

26.9927.6729.3031.5533.7835.3836.3244.2941.4641.9842.5842.5943.0643.1144.2945.1145.4946.1046.3847.7048.64

itory institutio

3dients

Required

27.6228.7030.4831.8733.9135.5938.6644.5541.7642.2342.8343.2243.4943.9244.5544.7745.2745.9746.4747.7448.51

ns 3

Bom(millions

unad

Total

8681,4731,690

636634774

3,1861,3181,2051,1071,0731,2891,1871,7411,318

770884761893876803

wingsof dollars,usted)

Seasonal

13581

116543396

11356

151167221203172107563656687394

108

1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averagesof month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictlycomparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligationsof States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.

2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.

3 Data are averages of daily figures.

NOTE.—Series on bank loans and securities revised.


28


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS


Period

19781979198019811982198319841985

1984: InmIV

1985: InmIV

1986: I"

Total

324.5354.0348.6380.8329.4435.1511.3489.8

532.6521.1462.7528.7

428.2465.7488.7576.0

546.2

Internal '

182.3197.6200.1239.5242.3288.1338.1371.3

324.8334.4343.9349.6

358.4364.6382.7379.5

396.8

Total

142.2156.5148.5141.387.1

147.0173.1118.5

207.8186.7118.8179.1

69.8101.1106.0196.5

149.4

Sources

Or

Total

81.088.293.092.283.584.7

115.484.5

113.992.585.2

169.8

69.580.553.1

134.3

105.7

External

edit market fu

Securitiesand

mortgages

33.321.052.121.844.057.3

-11.216.8

27.8-57.6

.540.3

-9.535.515.324.3

45.7

nds

Loans andshort-term

paper

47.767.340.970.439.527.4

126.567.8

141.7150.184.7

129.5

79.045.037.8

110.0

60.0

Other 2

61.368.255.549.23.6

62.357.834.0

93.894.333.69.4

.320.652.962.1

43.7

Total

309.0362.5341.6349.6283.6395.1457.6445.6

491.9468.1394.5476.0

394.6420.1445.4521.8

498.5

Uses

Capitalexpendi-tures 3

216.9238.3244.1286.3256.3271.4376.3368.7

356.6381.8385.5381.1

356.5365.8365.2387.3

390.7

Increase infinancialassets

92.0124.397.563.327.3

123.881.476.9

135.386.39.0

94.9

38.154.380.2

134.5

107.8

Discrepancy(sources less

uses)

15.5-8.5

7.031.245.840.053.644.2

40.753.068.252.6

33.645.643.454.1

47.7

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capitalconsumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retainedabroad.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.Government.

Source: Board cf Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIALCORPORATIONS

[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

End of period

QFR-FRB series: 2

19781979198019811982198319841985"1983: HI

IV1984: I

nmTV

1985: InmIV

Total

,043.7,214.8,328.3,419.6,437.1,575.9,703.0,778.5

1,537.31,575.91,619.51,650.01,685.91,703.01,718.41,729.81,756.71,778.5

Cash

105.5118.0127.0135.6147.8171.8173.6188.0155.0171.8167.6164.9161.3173.6166.7168.0174.6188.0

Curren

U.S.Grovern-

securities

17.216.718.717.723.031.036.232.327.531.035.437.233.036.235.034.831.932.3

assets

Notes andaccounts

receivable

388.0459.0507.5532.5517.4583.0633.1671.2567.5583.0606.4622.6639.1633.1649.5652.4658.6671.2

Invento-

431.8505.1543.0584.0579.0603.4656.9663.9600.8603.4622.2632.5659.3656.9666.1666.6674.7663.9

Othercurrentassets

101.1116.0132.1149.7169.8186.7203.2223.2186.6186.7187.9192.9193.2203.2201.0208.0217.0223.2

C

Total

669.5807.3890.6971.3986.0

1,059.61,163.61,232.71,040.21,059.61,093.11,126.31,155.01,163.61,173.21,179.41,209.11,232.7

urrent liahiliti

Notes andaccountspayable

383.0460.8514.4547.1550.7595.7647.8683.1571.0595.7601.9623.4642.2647.8636.4649.8668.1683.1

s

Othercurrent

liabilities

286.5346.5376.2424.1435.3463.9515.8549.7469.2463.9491.2502.9512.9515.8536.8529.7541.0549.7

Networkingcapital

374.3407.5437.8448.3451.1516.3539.5545.7497.1516.3526.5523.7530.8539.5545.2550.3547.6545.7

Currentratio *

1.5591.5051.4921.4621.4581.4871.4641.4431.4781.487.482.465.460.464.465.467.453

1.443

1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corpo-

rations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Finajtcial Report was transferred to

the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau

of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.

29


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates fell in July.

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

[Percent per annum]

Period

198019811982198319841985

1985: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986: JanFebMarAprMayJune r

July"

Week ended:1986: June 28

July 5121926

Aug 2P

U.S. 1

3-month bills(new issues) l

11.50614.02910.6868.639.587.48

7.057.187.087.177.207.07

7.047.036.596.066.126.215.84

6.095.995.855.785.725.86

reasury security

Constant n

3-year

11.5514.4412.9210.4511.899.64

9.189.319.379.258.888.40

8.418.107.306.867.277.416.86

7.146.996.926.736.826.91

yields

laturities 2

10-year

11.4613.9113.0011.1012.4410.62

10.3110.3310.3710.249.789.26

9.198.707.787.307.717.807.30

7.457.357.337.197.267.43

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 3

8.5111.2311.579.47

10.158.18

8.909.189.379.248.648.51

8.067.447.077.327.677.987.62

7.697.637.587.557.707.65

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's) 4

11.9414.1713.7912.0412.7111.37

10.9711.0511.0711.0210.5510.16

10.059.679.008.799.099.138.88

9.028.938.898.848.86

Primecommercial

paper,6 months *

12.2914.7611.898.89

10.168.01

7.577.747.867.797.697.62

7.627.547.086.476.536.636.24

6.516.416.326.196.176.17

Discount rate(N.Y. F.R.

Bank)5

11.7713.4111.028.508.807.69

7.50-7.507.50-7.507.50-7.507.50-7.507.50-7.507.50-7.50

7.50-7.507.50-7.507.50-7.007.00-6.506.50-6.506.50-6.506.50-6.00

6.50-6.506.50-6.506.50-6.006.00-6.006.00-6.006.00-

Prime ratecharged by

banks 5

15.2718.8714.8610.7912.049.93

9.50 9.509.50- 9.509.50- 9.509.50- 9.509.50- 9.509.50- 9.50

9.50- 9.509.50- 9.509.50- 9.009.00- 8.508.50- 8.508.50- 8.508.50- 8.00

8.50- 8.508.50- 8.508.50- 8.008.00- 8.008.00- 8.008.00-

New-homemortgage

yields(PHLBB) 6

12.6614.7015.1412.5712.3811.55

11.3411.2411.1711.0911.0110.94

10.8910.6810.5010.27

r 10.2210.14

1 Bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De-

partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October I I , 1984 due to lack

of appropriate issues.

5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as

well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder-al Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

30


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices fell in July.

INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50

140

INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX(NYSE)

I l l l l l l l l l l HIM iiiiiliiiii inn1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

PERCENT

20

15

10

PERCENT

20EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)15

10

5

1986

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

198019811982198319841985

1985: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1986: JanFebMarAprMayJune r

July*"

Week ended:1986: June 21

28July 5

121926

Aug 2".

Nev

Composite

68.1074.0268.9392.6392.46

108.09

111.64109.09106.62107.57113.93119.33

120.16126.43133.97137.27137.37140.82138.32

140.80142.20144.62139.58136.07137.39135.82

v York Stock Ext

Industrial

78.7085.4478.18

107.45108.01123.79

126.94124.92122.35123.65130.53136.77

137.13144.03152.75157.30158.59163.15158.06

163.12164.39167.00160.34154.96156.30154.38

Co

hange indexes (E

Ttion

60.6172.6160.4189.3685.63

104.11

111.67109.92104.96103.72108.61113.52

115.72124.18128.66126.17122.21120.65112.03

120.27119.39119.98115.83110.60108.82107.12

mmon stock price

ec. 31, 1965-5

Utility

37.3538.9139.7547.0046.4456.75

59.6856.9955.9355.8459.0761.69

62.4665.1868.0669.4668.6570.6974.20

70.9372.4173.8472.9173.8275.3475.11

s 1

O) 2

Finance

64.2573.5271.9995.3489.28

114.21

119.85114.68110.21112.36122.83128.86

132.36142.13153.94155.07151.28151.73150.23

151.11153.09156.63151.48148.50149.47146.80

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 3

891.41932.92884.36

1,190.341,178.481,328.23

1,343.171,326.181,317.951,351.581,432.881,517.02

1,534.861,652.731,757.351,807.051,801.801,867.701,809.92

1,868.381,878.061,901.541,827.811,779.221,794.851,773.87

Standard &Poor's

compositeindex (1941-

43 = 10)4

118.78128.05119.71160.41160.46186.84

192.54188.31184.06186.18197.45207.26

208.19219.37232.33237.97238.46245.30240.18

245.42247.91251.84242.74235.84238.25235.82

Common si(perce

Dividend-price ratio

5.265.205.814.404.644.25

4.144.234.324.284.063.88

3.903.723.503.433.423.363.43

3.353.333.273.403.523.453.49

ock yieldsnt)5

Earnings-price ratio

12.6611.9611.60

8.0310.02

8.12

8.35

6.92

1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the"stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks.4 Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Companv, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-poration.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 9 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $166.8 billion compared with a deficit of $162.0 billiona year earlier.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS y

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,000

" OUTLAYS -

RECEIPTS y

900

800

700

600

500

400

-100

-200

-100

-200

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

FISCAL YEARS!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

19751976Transition quarter197719781979

19801981198219831984

19851986 1

1987 *

Cumulative total, first 9months:

Fiscal year 1985Fiscal year 1986

Receipts

279.1298.181.2

355.6399.6463.3

517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1777.1850.4

546.8571.6

Total

Outlays

332.3371.896.0

409.2458.7503.5

590.9678.2745.7808.3851.8

946.3979.9994.0

708.9738.4

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-53.2-73.7-14.7-53.6-59.2-40.2

-73.8-78.9

-127.9-207.8-185.3

-212.3-202.8-143.6

-162.0166.8

Receipts

216.6231.7

63.2278.7314.2365.3

403.9469.1474.3453.2500.4

547.9579.2636.1

408.3419.9

On-budget

Outlays

271.9302.2

76.6328.5369.1403.5

476.6543.0594.3661.2686.0

769.5795.2795.4

574.8603.0

Surplusof deficit

(-)

55.3-70.5-13.3-49.7-54.9-38.2

-72.7-73.9

-120.0-208.0-185.6

-221.6-216.0-159.3

-166.5-183.1

Receipts

62.566.418.076.885.498.0

113.2130.2143.5147.3166.1

186.2197.9214.3

138.5151.7

Off-budget

Outlays

60.469.619.480.789.7

100.0

114.3135.2151.4147.1165.8

176.8184.7198.6

134.1135.4

Surplusor deficit

(-)

2.03.2

-1.43.9

-4.32.0

-1.1-5.0-7.9

.2

.3

9.413.215.7

4.516.2

Gross Fe(end of

Total

544.1631.9646.4709.1780.4833.8

914.31,003.91,147.01,381.91,576.7

1,827.52,112.02,320.6

1,779.02,063.6

leral debtperiod)

Held bythe public

396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9644.6

715.1794.4929.4

1,141.81,312.6

1,509.91,714.01,855.7

1,463.81,688.2

1 Estimates.NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Man-

agement and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

32


FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 9 months of fiscal 1986, receipts were $24.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $29.5billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400

300

200

100

0

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

— RECEIPTS!/

•—"•"**""'

— """"" —-— «—•——""

—-}--• 1

-- - "~~•- —

•.———"""""""CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

BOTHER RECEIPTS)

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES _.__.— ——-—""""

1 !_ »JU.. 1 -•»••" * ,

— __—--" .snriAi iNSiiRANirpTAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS

~1 —~~~\ 1 1 1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400

300

200

100

0

-OUTLAYS^/ -

NONDEFENSE

NATIONAL DEFENSE

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

FISCAL YEARS_!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year

1976197719781979

19801981198219831984

19851986 '1987 '

Cumulative total, first 9 months:Fiscal year 1985Fiscal year 1986

0

Total

298.1355.6399.6463.3

517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1777.1850.4

546.8571.6

n-budget 8

Indi-vidualincome

131.6157.6181.0217.8

244.1285.9297.7288.9298.4

334.5353.7386.0

247.0254.6

tnd off-bm

Corpo-ration

41.454.960.065.7

64.661.149.237.056.9

61.370.986.7

47.447.2

ret reeeip

Socialinsur-ance

and

butions

90.8106.5121.0138.9

157.8182.7201.5209.0239.4

265.2280.4302.8

198.6215.1

s

Other

34.336.637.740.8

50.669.569.365.671.8

73.072.174.9

53.854.6

Total

371.8409.2458.7503.5

590.9678.2745.7808.3851.8

946.3979.9994.0

708.9738.4

Nationa

Total

89.697.2

104.5116.3

134.0157.5185.3209.9227.4

252.7265.8282.2

185.7203.3

1 defense

Depart-ment of

military

88.195.3

102.3113.7

131.0153.8180.7204.4220.8

245.4258.4274.3

180.0197.5

On-bud

Inter-

affairs

6.46.47.57.5

12.713.112.311.815.9

16.217.118.6

12.310.0

[jet and of

Health

15.717.318.520.5

23.226.927.428.630.4

33.535.735.0

25.026.6

-budget o

Medi-

15.819.322.826.5

32.139.146.652.657.5

65.868.770.2

49.051.4

itlays

Income

ty

60.861.061.566.4

86.599.7

107.7122.6112.7

128.2118.1118.4

99.791.2

Social

ty

73.985.193.9

104.1

118.5139.6156.0170.7178.2

188.6200.1212.2

141.1148.5

Net

est

26.729.935.442.6

52.568.785.089.8

111.1

129.4142.7148.0

96.7102.8

Other

82.893.0

114.7119.6

131.4133.5125.4122.3118.6

131.8131.7109.3

99.4104.7

1 Estimates.

NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Offiei

and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

of Management

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the first quarter of 1986, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts fell $5.8 billion (annual rate) andexpenditures fell $21.9 billion, yielding a deficit of $201.6 billion. In the second quarter, according to preliminaryestimates, Federal expenditures rose $38.1 billion; receipts data are incomplete. (Series revised.)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-200


BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

EXPENDITURES

Vr—

i i i1978

I I I

1979

I I I

1980

I I I

1981

RECEIPTS

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

I I I

1982

CALENDAR VEARS

1983

I I I

1984

I I I

1985

I I I

1,000

800

600

400

200

-200

1986

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1983 r

1984 r

1985 r

1982: mIT

1983: I r

nr

m r

rv r

1984: I r

TT r

in r

IV r

1985: I r

n r

nj r

IV r

1986: I T

n"

Total

659.9726.5786.8

630.3633.1

636.5666.0661.6675.5

711.2721.7729.2743.9

793.3755.8792.6805.8

800.0

Federal

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

294.5309.3345.6

298.1303.0

297.1303.3285.4291.9

295.9301.7314.3325.5

360.7316.6349.6355.6

350.3351.5

Govemme

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

61.375.973.6

50.146.4

46.759.768.870.2

81.980.971.069.9

70.569.976.877.2

71.2

it receipts

Indirectbusinesstax andnontax

accruals

51.655.756.1

47.147.6

46.352.953.753.6

54.655.856.355.9

55.159.353.956.0

52.750.5

Contribu-tions for

socialinsurance

252.5285.5311.5

235.0236.1

246.4250.1253.7259.8

278.8283.3287.6292.6

306.9310.0312.2317.0

325.8327.0

Total

835.9896.5984.9

789.1835.7

822.7837.4838.9844.7

865.2885.6901.1934.0

955.4970.6990.1

1,023.4

1,001.51,039.6

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

283.5311.3354.1

275.3293.2

285.5287.7284.9276.1

283.4315.2317.2329.1

333.7340.9360.9380.9

355.7364.8

Federal C

Transferpay-

ments

348.6355.0380.3

329.1347.4

344.2351.1346.6352.5

350.1351.7356.0362.1

374.2377.2384.1385.9

389.3394.6

rovernment

in-aid toStateandlocal

govern-ments

86.293.699.0

83.384.5

86.086.186.886.0

91.593.492.696.9

95.798.3

100.2101.6

103.5106.1

expenditure

Netinterest

paid

94.3115.6130.5

87.187.2

88.191.196.8

101.0

107.3110.4119.7124.9

127.6130.9129.8133.9

135.0138.2

s

Subsidies

currentsurplus ofGovern-

mententer-

22.921.320.7

14.323.4

18.920.223.429.1

32.915.015.621.5

24.422.315.121.1

18.035.9

j

Wageaccruals

lessdisburse-

ments

-0.4.2

— .2

.0

.0

.0-1.3-.4

.0

2.2.0.6

.1-1.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

Surplusor deficit

nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-176.0-170.0-198.0

-158.8-202.6

-186.2-171.4-177.3-169.2

-154.0-163.9-171.9-190.1

-162.2-214.8-197.5-217.6

-201.6


34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Period

1979198019811982198319841985"


1986: JanFebMarAprMayJune"

UnitedStates

110.7108.6111.0103.1109.2121.8124.5

124.3124.1125.2125.1124.4125.4126.4

126.7125.6124.4

' 125.2r 124.7

124.1

Industrial J

Canada

109.8108.1109.097.4

102.9112.0116.8

116.4118.1118.1118.0119.1120.1120.0

120.0r!21.0rl!7.2

120.8118.4

reduction

Japan

113.7118.9120.1120.6124.7138.4144.8

144.9147.2145.5144.5144.8144.2144.6

144.6145.2144.5144.6

(1977 = 1

France

107106103101102105106

104108108105107109104

104105105109

30; seasonal

Germany

107107105102103106112

112116112112116116110

113113112113

y adjusted

Italy

108.7114.7112.1109.6103.9107.1108.4

111.1107.3105.8110.6106.9110.9106.6

' 108.0' lll.O' 114.5

116.0

UnitedKingdom

1071009698

101103108

108108108109108110107

108rl!0

109111

UnitedStates '

217.4246.8272.4289.1298.4311.1322.2

322.3322.8323.5324.5325.5326.6327.4

328.4327.5326.0325.3326.3327.9

Canada

221.0243.5273.9303.5321.0335.0348.3

348.3349.5350.1350.5351.7353.1354.7

356.3357.7358.5359.1360.7361.3

Consume

Japan

261.3282.3296.2304.1309.7316.6323.0

323.5323.8320.7323.8328.4325.0325.2

325.8324.4323.5324.7326.9

r prices (]

France

259.1294.2332.7373.1407.9439.5465.1

466.4468.2468.7469.2470.6471.5472.1

472.6471.7472.9474.7475.6

967=100)

Germany

166.9175.8186.9196.8203.3208.2212.7

213.3212.9212.2212.6212.9213.3213.5

213.8213.3212.8212.6212.6212.9

Italy

328.53SS.O472.4549.4631.8698.8764.7

764.4766.7768.2771.3780.6786.1791.6

795.6801.2804.4806.8809.9813.1

UnitedKingdom

359.0423.6473.9514.7538.3565.1599.4

604.7603.5605.1604.8605.8607.9608.7

610.0612.2613.0619.0620.1619.8

1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysisand International Trade Administration).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*]

Period

Monthly average:1977197819791980

19811982198319841985

1985: June*July*Aug*Sept*Oct*Nov*Dec*

1986: Jan*Feb*Mar*Apr*May*June**

Totaldomestic

foreignexports

10,10311,97315,15518,386

19,47317,68316,70718,15517,762

18,01216,72716,58417,03417,61817,72116,994

17,00617,73518,91317,96517,43119,070

Merc

Total2

9,91911,76214,88618,043

19,07517,25616,32617,67017,244

17,43316,17216,10616,54317,12217,22716,479

16,50117,16418,34917,37616,69116,427

landise expo

Domestic

Food,bever-

ages, andtobacco

1,3301,7172,0492,534

2,7672,2482,2482,2761,852

1,6141,6041,7831,7091,8362,1281,907

1,7971,6891,7061,4751,3951,438

ts1

exports

Crudemateri-als and

fuels

I

1,5481,7462,3522,810

2,7522,7932,4632,6242,362

2,1222,0332,2582,1152,2852,5592,459

2,4672,3672,3492,4362,2281,776

Mfaetured

goods

.a.s. vaJu

6,6797,8739,716

11,991

12,85711,64311,03411,92912,115

12,75911,55611,23311,70012,10211,68811,221

11,39312,18213,32512,61512,27412,298

Total s

B

12,53314,56317,45520,406

21,74820,32921,50427,14428,773

30,13627,00026,24731,34928,42930,01030,728

32,00528,89531,97228,76230,272

Merc

Gen

Food,bever-

ages, andtobacco

1,1861,3121,4781,546

Customs

1,5291,4851,5681,8021,865

1,9121,6411,7191,9031,5981,8652,138

2,2151,9082,1002,0182,329

landise imp

eral import

Crudemateri-als and

fuels

4,4634,3255,9497,831

value

7,7396,2005,6706,0635,415

6,0545,0854,8515,5625,6565,6576,011

6,2344,7414,2843,1763,659

orts

3

faeturedpoods

6,3798,3609,352

10,427

11,87312,00213,62118,46020,565

21,26819,28618,91622,88720,27121,55721,654

22,47721,28924,26122,22623,001

(c.i.f.value)

13,36815,50418,51921,415

22,77921,24022,49028,43130,136

31,59628,31227,51232,86029,69531,37132,141

33,46530,22533,43530,03631,63833,240

Mercha

Exports

lessimports(customs

value)

-2,275-2,647-4,797-8,988

-11,011

-12,124-10,274-9,663

— 14,315-10,811-12,290-13,734

-14,999-11,161-13,059-10,797-12,842

ndise trade

Exports(f.a.s.)

imports(f.a.s.)

— 2,430-2,590-2,300-2,020

lalance

Exports(f.a.s.)

imports(c.i.f.)

-3,265-3,530— 3,364-3,030

— 3,306-3,558-5,783

-10,276-12,373

-13,584-11,585-10,927— 15,826-12,077— 13,651-15,146

- 16,459-12,491-14,522-12,071- 14,208-14,170

1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mili-tary Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginningJanuary 1978.

2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is-

lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal-

'Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishesthese data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revisedstatistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900.

"June foreign exports (not shown separately) includes $2,050 million of nonmonetary gold bul-lion.


35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the first quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $33.7 billion, unchanged from its fourth quarter level.The merchandise trade deficit fell to $36.6 billion from $37.4 billion in the fourth quarter.

BILL

10

5

0

-15

-20

35

-40

ONS OF DOi.lt

vl//

SsSf /

/""**

/

/

| | j

1978

'SEASONALLY ADJUS

^RS*

ysN//\x..,

NX \~.

%**K

1 1 1

1979

TED

/ *""*

.J/ ^

^J

''*N% ^/'•*/

i i i1980

'\

^— T*

BALANCECURRENT AC(

\

MERi

1 1 1

1981

BALANCE ON <AND SERVI

"-•^ \ /W\\ON \\

:OUNT v~->

,.-''"', ^^~ \1\

:HANDISE TRABALANCE

1 1 11982

3OODSCES

A\\\\\

- \ \'\ \\

5E \ \\

i ^Vi\ \\ N

*^

i i i1983

BILLIONS OF DOLL

\\

\\

V^ VL f V -

v — / \ \' — ^y *^^A v-x-.v^

*tV-*"

I I I I I I I I I1984 1985 1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER

*RS*

10

5

-15

25

30

35

-40

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)]

Period

1979198019811982198319841985

1983: IninIV

1984: InniIV

1985: IninIV

1986: I"

Exports

184,473224,269237,085211,198201,820219,900214,424

49,64249,21650,35152,611

53,61454,59055,69156,005

55,32453,87552,49852,727

53,548

Merchandise 1 '

Imports

-212,009-249,749-265,063-247,642-268,900-332,422-338,863

-59,476-64,798-70,740-73,886

-79,415-83,684— 84,144-85,179

-80,369-84,242-84,173-90,079

-90,133

Netbalance

-27,536-25,480-27,978-36,444-67,080

-112,522— 124,439

-9,834-15,582-20,389-21,275

-25,801— 29,094-28,453— 29,174

-25,045-30,367-31,675-37,352

-36,585

Ini

Receipts

64,13272,50686,41183,54977,25186,22189,991

18,07718,73220,68419,758

22,86021,10421,39620,861

18,72622,25324,50224,509

24,241

vestment incon

Payments

-32,960-42,120-52,329-54,883-52,410-67,469-64,803

-12,228-12,807-13,536-13,839

— 15,446-17,208-17,991-16,823

-16,507-16,804-16,240-15,254

— 17,421

le 3

Net

31,17230,38634,08228,66624,84118,75225,188

5,8495,9257,1485,919

7,4143,8963,4054,038

2,2195,4498,2629,255

6,820

Netmilitary

tions

-1,778-2,237-1,183

-274-369

-1,827-2,917

49232

-131-762

-281-615-234-696

-246-729-619

-1,322

-945

Nettravel andtranspor-

tationreceipts

-2,935-997

144-992

-4,227-8,593

— 11,128

-588-916

— 1,226-1,497

-1,834-2,052-2,332-2,375

-2,202-2,864-3,031-3,031

-2,586

Otherservices,

net 3

6,2147,7938,6998,8299,7119,881

10,603

2,2382,4862,4362,552

2,6302,4712,4482,333

2,4422,5522,6092,999

2,659

Balance ongoods andservices l

5,1389,466

13,764-214

-37,123-94,308- 102,694

-1,843-8,055

— 12,162- 15,063

-17,872-25,394-25,166-25,874

— 22,832-25,959-24,454-29,451

-30,637

Kemit-tances,

pensions,and otherunilateral

trans-fers 1

-6,128-7,593-7,425-8,917-9,481

-12,157-14,983

-1,752-2,021-2,375-3,333

-2,368-2,439-3,107-4,243

-3,280-3,458-4,001-4,244

-3,031

Balanceon current

account

-9911,8736,339

-9,131— 46,604- 106,466-117,677

-3,595-10,076-14,537-18,396

-20,240-27,833-28,273-30,117

-26,112-29.417-28,455-33,695

-33,668

1 Excludes military grants.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.

Source: Department of Coi arce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $7.8 billion in the first quarter

:ompared to an increase of $8.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985. Liabilities to foreigners reported by U.S.

banks increased $8.6 billion in the first quarter compared to an increase of $20.4 billion in the fourth quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*60

40

20

-20

-40

-60

CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S..NET

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*60

1978

V

1979

\/

1980

I I

1981

/' A

CHANGE INU.S. ASSETS

ABROAD, NET

1982 1983

I I I

1984

I I I

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED


1985

I I I

40

20

-20

-40

-60

1986


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1979198019811982198319841985

1983: Inmrv

1984: InmIV

1985: InmIV

1986: I"

1

Total

-64,331-86,118

-111,031-121,273-50,022-23,639-32,436

-23,691-523

-8,621-17,186

-3,571-20,171

16,443-16,338

-510-2,793-5,867

-23,266

-8,677

U.S. assetsincrease /capit

U.S.officialreserve

assets J 2

-1,133-8,155-5,175-4,965-1,196-3,131-3,858

-78716

529-953

-657-566-799

-1,110

-233-356-121

-3,148

-115

abroad, netil outflow ( — )

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

-3,746-5,162-5,097-6,131-5,005-5,523-2,824

-1,134-1,263-1,171-1,436

-2,029-1,386-1,388

-717

-807-1,055

-422540

146

U.S.privateassets

-59,453-72,802- 100,758

110,177-43,821-14,986-25,754

-21,770724

-7,97914,797

885-18,220

18,630-14,512

530-1,382-5,32419,579

8,416

Foreign[increase

Total

38,75258,11283,32294,07885,496

102,767127,106

16,20015,75619,53134,009

22,25141,963

2,66835,885

14,24725,35835,66551,837

39,484

assets in the 1/capital inflow

Foreignofficialassets

-13,66515,4974,9603,5935,9683,037

-1,324

381,591

-2,6627,002

2,947-157

7656,906

-11,0668,4862,5771,322

2,510

J.S., net" (+)] 2

Otherforeignassets

52,41642,61578,36290,48679,52799,730

128,430

16,16214,16522,19427,007

25,19842,120

3,43328,979

25,31316,87233,08853,158

36,974

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDEs)

1,1391,1521,093

Statistical d

Total (sumof the itemswith signreversed)

25,43124,98220,27636,32511,13027,33823,006

11,086-5,157

3,6261,573

1,5606,0409,162

10,570

12,3756,852

-1,3435,125

2,861

iscrepancy

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

-88-176

-3,1553,417

940-962

-3,5613,577

1,094-1,174-3,687

3,771

1,535

assets, net *(unadjusted,

end ofperiod)

18,95626,75630,07433,95833,74734,93443,186

34,26133,87633,06633,747

34,97534,54734,30634,934

35,49336,08838,29543,186

44,919

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF,

2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates... 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity UtiliEation 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Consumer Installment Credit 27Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General NotesDetail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

p Preliminary.T Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.

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Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing.

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