Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Economic Forecast
OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:
Ohio’s GDP forecast is derived from the
national forecast by allocating output to each
of the 50 states based on employment
shares. So, forecast misses reflect surprises
in the aggregate forecast as well as
unexpected shifts in a state’s GDP share.
Ohio’s economy contracted more sharply
than the national economy in 2008 and
2009, but now is rebounding at a
respectable pace.
KEY MESSAGE:
Ohio’s economy is forecast to match the
pace of the national recovery in 2013.
Note: GDP figures are based on quarterly values that are
interpolated from annual GDP estimates using quarterly
employment changes. Unbolded figures are reported actual
values and bold figures represent forecasts.
Sources: US Department of Commerce;
US Department of Labor.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
United States
Real GDP
$ billions (fourth quarter) $13,326 $12,884 $12,873 $13,181 $13,441 $13,648 $14,090 $14,654
% change over the four quarters 2.2% -3.3% -0.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 3.2% 4.0%
Nonfarm employment
Job count (fourth quarter) 137,943,000 135,153,333 129,526,667 130,283,667 132,286,667 134,455,000 136,189,659 138,513,010
% change over the four quarters 0.9% -2.0% -4.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7%
Average monthly change 99,750 -232,472 -468,889 63,083 166,917 180,694 144,555 193,613
Ohio
Real GDP
$ billions (fourth quarter) $437 $420 $408 $416 $422 $431 $443 $460
% change over the four quarters -0.7% -3.8% -2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%
Nonfarm employment
Job count (fourth quarter) 5,422,000 5,284,900 5,006,767 5,056,733 5,095,600 5,191,767 5,254,648 5,338,870
% change over the four quarters 0.0% -2.5% -5.3% 1.0% 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.6%
Average monthly change -153 -11,425 -23,178 4,164 3,239 8,014 5,240 7,018
The Economy’s Structure
PERCENT OF TOTAL GDP DERIVED FROM SELECTED INDUSTRIES WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The figure compares the relative importance
of selected industries to the state’s economy
with the national footprint of each industry
(state and national figures reflect the value
added of each industry as a percent of
aggregate state or US nominal GDP,
respectively).
Auto production has an outsized footprint in
Ohio’s economy.
KEY MESSAGES:
The reviving motor vehicle industry now is
an asset for Ohio. And the health care
industry provides a steady backdrop.
Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through
2011.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Agr
icul
ture
Min
ing
Util
ities
Con
stru
ctio
n
Dur
able
man
ufac
turin
g
Non
dudr
able
man
ufac
turin
g
Who
lesa
le tr
ade
Ret
ail t
rade
Tra
nspo
rtat
ion
Info
rmat
ion
Fin
ance
and
insu
ranc
e
Rea
l est
ate
Pro
fess
iona
l and
tech
nica
l ser
vice
s
Man
agem
ent o
f com
pani
es
Adm
inis
trat
ive
and
was
te m
anag
emen
t ser
vice
s
Edu
catio
nal s
ervi
ces
Hea
lth c
are
and
soci
al a
ssis
tanc
e
Art
s, e
nter
tain
men
t, an
d re
crea
tion
Hot
el a
nd fo
od s
ervi
ce
Oth
er s
ervi
ces
Gov
ernm
ent
US industrial mix
Ohio industrial mix
Bankruptcies
RATIO OF BANKRUPTCY FILINGS TO THE 2007 Q4 NUMBER WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Bankruptcies are falling back, looking at the
ratio of bankruptcy filings by businesses and
persons to filings in 2007 Q4 .
Bankruptcy filings have dropped back to a
normal rate.
KEY MESSAGES:
Indicators of financial stress are a useful
coincident indication of economic distress.
Financial stresses from the housing debacle
have largely passed.
Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts; Updated
through December 2012.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 4
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Business bankruptcy filingsNonbusiness bankruptcy filings
All US bankruptcy filings (shaded area)
Private Business Surveys
REAL GDP (% CHANGE 12 MONTHS EARLIER) DIFFUSION INDEXES (0 = NO CHANGE) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Surveys of local purchasing managers are
superimposed on GDP growth in Ohio.
Surveys of expectations about the outlook
remain favorable.
KEY MESSAGES:
Sentiment surveys provide useful leading
information and these are pointing to an
improvement in the state’s economic
outlook.
Sources: Institute of Supply Management; US Department
of Commerce. Updated through December 2012 (diffusion
indexes) and 2012 Q4 (GDP).
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 5
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Ohio's real GDP (left scale)
Cincinnati Business Conditions Index (right scale)Cleveland Business Conditions Index (right scale)
Private Business Surveys
REAL GDP (% CHANGE 12 MONTHS EARLIER) DIFFUSION INDEXES (50 = NO CHANGE) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The Mid-America Business Barometer
Index, based on the survey of purchasing
managers, is illustrated along with real GDP
growth in the Great Lakes region.
The purchasing managers index points to
future growth (a reading above 50 means
the economy is growing, while less than 50
means the economy is shrinking).
The index is a timely measure of the
strength of business activity in the Midwest
and indicates that, although the latest
readings have slowed somewhat, activity
remains solid.
KEY MESSAGES:
This index will be a useful leading indicator
of the direction of the economy.
Sources: Institute of Supply Management; US Department
of Commerce. Updated through December 2012 (diffusion
indexes) and 2012 Q4 (GDP).
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 6
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Real GDP in the Great Lakes region (left scale)
Business Barometer Index, Mid-America Purchasing Managers (right scale)
Initial Jobless Claims
RATIO OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE TO THE 2007 Q4 LEVEL WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The figure tracks layoffs in Ohio and the
national level of claims.
Weekly layoffs, both the state and national
tallies, are illustrated in the figure as a ratio
to the level of layoffs in the fourth quarter of
2007, prior to the recession.
Layoffs have fallen to pre-recession levels.
KEY MESSAGES:
The low pace of layoffs is bullish for the
state’s economic outlook.
Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through
February 2, 2013 (state) and February 9, 2013 (US).
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 7
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OhioUS (solid area)
Ohio accounts for 19.8% of auto manufacturing employment
Economic Growth
REAL GDP GROWTH (PERCENT CHANGE FROM FOUR QUARTERS EARLIER) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Real GDP growth in Ohio (the line in the
figure) is superimposed on top of US real
GDP growth (bars in the figure).
Ohio’s economy is tracking along with the
national recovery.
KEY MESSAGES:
The Buckeye State’s economy is expected
to continue to expand in 2013, paralleling
the national recovery.
Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through
2012 Q4.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 8
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
OhioUS
Economic Output
REAL GDP LEVEL (RATIO TO 2000 Q4) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The figure illustrates the evolution of real
GDP of the state and the overall US
economy since the fourth quarter of 2000,
the peak of the previous business cycle—
that is, at any point in time the lines trace the
ratio of real GDP to its level in 2000 Q4.
The state’s economy appears to be on the
mend.
KEY MESSAGES:
Ohio is expected to gradually close the gap
between the state’s output level and the
national trend in output.
Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through
2012 Q4.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 9
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US
Ohio
Employment Growth
NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (PERCENT CHANGE FROM 12 MONTHS EARLIER) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The chart appears to illustrate the theme, as
the Midwest goes, so goes Ohio.
Ohio’s job market, which contracted more
sharply than the national market during the
recession, now is expanding at a robust
pace, the fastest since the late 1990s.
KEY MESSAGES:
Employment is expected to expand at a
respectable pace for the next several years.
Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through January
2013.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 10
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
OhioUS
Employment in Relative Terms
NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (RATIO TO THE 2000 Q4 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The figure illustrates the evolution of
employment in the state compared with the
nation since 2000 Q4, the peak of the
previous business cycle. The lines trace out
the ratio of employment at the time to
employment in 2000 Q4.
The state’s employment base is down about
nine percent from decade-ago levels, but is
making good progress in recovering those
losses.
Businesses have recovered or replaced 50
percent of the jobs that were lost during the
recession.
KEY MESSAGES:
Employment is on the rise.
Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through January
2013.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 11
0.88
0.89
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
0.88
0.89
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US
Ohio
Employment in Absolute Terms
NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Trends in the actual employment count in
the state (left scale) and the level of
employment in the overall economy (right
scale).
KEY MESSAGES:
Legacy housing drags aren’t preventing a
new recovery, even in Ohio.
Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through January
2013.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: California Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 12
127,500
130,000
132,500
135,000
137,500
140,000
5,000
5,050
5,100
5,150
5,200
5,250
5,300
5,350
5,400
5,450
5,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US (right scale)Ohio (left scale)
Intrastate Employment
NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO 2000 Q4 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Job trends in local communities within the
state.
Employment in most of Ohio’s communities
is rising.
KEY MESSAGES:
Ohio’s economic fortunes still depend
importantly on the strength of the vehicle
industry, which is not on the rise.
Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through
December 2012 (state) and January 2013 (US).
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 13
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US forecast
US
Columbus
Cincinnati-Middletown
Akron
Sandusky
Lima
Steubenville
Cleveland-Elyria-
MentorMansfield
Springfield
Dayton
Canton-Massillon
Youngstown
Toledo
Ohio forecast
Ohio
Unemployment
UNEMPLOYMENT (PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Unemployment has fallen by more than the
national average and now is below the US
average.
Ohio’s unemployment rate is falling very
rapidly.
KEY MESSAGES:
The unemployment rate is the single best
indicator of the relative economic
performance of a region and by this
standard the local economy is rebounding at
an impressive pace.
The steady drop in the state’s
unemployment rate is a sign the economy is
growing faster than its underlying potential
rate.
Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through
December 2012 (state) and January 2013 (US).
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Ohio
US (shaded)
Relative House Prices
RATIO OF THE STATE’S HOUSE PRICES TO THE NATIONAL AVERAGE (1995 Q2 = 1.0) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The figure tracks the relative price of houses
in the state versus the nation—that is, it
reflects the ratio of the state price index to
the national house price index, with that ratio
set to unity in the summer of 1995. A drop
in the line means that house prices in the
state lag the national trend. States that did
not suffer from speculative conditions saw a
decline in the relative price of houses in this
last decade.
Ohio did not see house prices run up as in
other regions during the speculative boom
but its house prices have fallen as other
markets have corrected.
KEY MESSAGES:
Real estate conditions are expected to
strengthen in the future.
Source: FHFA. Updated through 2012 Q3.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 15
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Real Estate Markets
HOUSE PRICES IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO THE 1995 Q2 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The figure tracks the cumulative percentage
deviation in house prices since 1995 in
selected local markets and compares those
with the national average.
Ohio’s reviving economy is beginning to
stabilize house prices.
KEY MESSAGE:
Real estate prices have been drifting down
since 2006.
Sources: FHFA; Standard & Poor’s. Updated through
2012 Q3.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 16
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
US
Mansfield
Lima
Cleveland
Columbus
Dayton
Canton
Acron
Sandusky
Springfield
Toledo
Youngstown
Cleveland (Case-Shiller)
US
New Home Building
HOUSING STARTS (RATIO TO THE JULY 1990 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
The pace of new home building (housing
starts) in Ohio, compared with the national
trends.
Even though Ohio did not see a housing
bubble, the struggling manufacturing sector
is taking a toll on the building business.
Home building activity just recently has
begun to revive.
KEY MESSAGES:
Housing activity is forecast to gradually
recover from current levels.
Source: Census Department. Updated through December
2012.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 17
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
USOhio
Office Markets
PERCENT OF OFFICE SPACE THAT IS VACANT WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:
Office market conditions in selected
markets.
Market conditions are beginning to improve
in Cincinnati and Columbus.
KEY MESSAGES:
Ohio’s commercial real estate markets are
forecast to be on the mend as the economy
revives.
Source: CB Richard Ellis (formerly CB Commercial Property
Information Systems), Office Vacancy Index of the United
States. Updated through 2012 Q3.
February 17, 2013
Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook
Commercial Banking 18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Columbus metropolitan areaCleveland metropolitan areaCincinnati metropolitan area
All metropolitan areas (shaded area)