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Is California’s Future Still Golden?
Bill Watkins September 2012
United States
www.clucerf.org
Why Doesn’t it Feel Like a Recovery?
124.0
126.0
128.0
130.0
132.0
134.0
136.0
138.0
140.0
2000Q1 2002Q2 2004Q3 2006Q4 2009Q1 2011Q2
Non-Farm Jobs-SA
Center for Economic Research and ForecastingUnited States - (millions of jobs)
Fewer People are Working
43
4444 44
44 44
43
42
4241 41
4242
4242
42 4243 43
43 43 43
2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2
Real Per Capita Gross Domestic Product
Center for Economic Research and ForecastingUnited States - (thousands of 2005 dollars)
Incomes are Down
212 212 211205
195188
178
162154 156
161 163 166161 166
171 175 173164 169
175 178
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1
Real Per Capita Net Wealth: Household Sector
Center for Economic Research and ForecastingUnited States - (thousands of 2005 Q1 dollars)
People are Poorer
45.0
46.0
47.0
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
Percent Share of Population
Civilian Labor Force/PopulationJan. 1980 to August 2012
Many have Given Up Looking for Work
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United States Forecast
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Then, there is the deficit.
Hint: It’s not infrastructure or Defense.
10.2
4.5
5.8
5.2
8.0
Total Government Deficit
Dept. of Defense Dept. of Health and Human Services
Social Security Administration
Other spending
Department Overlay as %GDP 2010
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How to Fix the Budget
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How to Grow the Economy
Increase Legal Immigration
www.clucerf.org
www.clucerf.orgDodd-Frank
Get Rid of Bad Regulation
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Develop Domestic Energy
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The Upside Risk
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What could go wrong?
Real Estate
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004 Q1 2010 Q1
United StatesHome Ownership Rate, SA
Percent of Households
Home Ownership Getting Better!
Has California lost its mojo?
California Smaller Part of U.S. Economy
11.4%
11.2%
10.9%
10.6%10.7%
10.8%
11.0%11.1% 11.1% 11.1%
11.0%
10.8%10.7%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
California Nonfarm Jobs as a share of United States
Center for Economic Research and ForecastingCalifornia - (percent of U.S.)
-151
-215
-389
-434
-384
-256
-151
-92 -81-63
-46
-120-97
-160
-249
-313
-265
-143
-99
-54 -51
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Domestic Migration
Center for Economic Research and ForecastingCalifornia - (thousands of persons)
20 Years3.8 Million
• 34 % with 12 %
• 38 of 58
• 34.6 %
• 31 %
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“If they can’t do it in California, it can’t
be done anywhere.”
Taylor Caldwell said:
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“I got my mojo worken.
It just don’t work on you.”
Muddy said:
California Forecast
Modest Output Growth
Weaker Job Growth
Persistent High Unemployment.
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Some of California’s regions are doing better than others.
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How to Change California’s Forecast
Recognize the problem.
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Mining
Get rid of bad regulation
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Do regulation right
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Cut the Cost of :
Delay
Uncertainty
Regulations
Taxes
Which brings us back to China
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Thank you!
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