Economic Assessments of Space Solar Power (SSP): Past …-SpaceWorks Commercial has been analyzing the economics of SSP-Part of ongoing IAA study on SSP (J. Mankins)-Past experience

Copyright ©2010 SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved1

Economic Assessments of Space Solar Power (SSP):

Past and Present

Mr. A.C. CharaniaPresident, SpaceWorks Commercial

[email protected] | 1+202.503.1752 | 1+202.503.1751 (Fax)

Mr. Ryan LefkofskySummer 2010 Graduate Intern, SpaceWorks Commercial / CMU Tepper MBA School Student

[email protected]

IAC-10.C3.1.8, 61st International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Prague, Czech Republic, 27 September – 01 October 2010

A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved2 Copyright ©2010, SpaceWorks Commercial, A Division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) All Rights Reserved2

Overview:-An engineering services firm with offices in Atlanta, Georgia (HQ) and Washington, D.C.

-Spin-off from the Georgia Institute of Technology founded in 2000

-Approximately +$2M annual revenues from sales of engineering services and software

-85% of SEI staff members hold degrees in engineering or science

-Three major divisions: Engineering, Commercial, and Software

Core Competencies:-Advanced concept synthesis for launch and in-space transportation systems

-Including engineering design and analysis, new concept design, independent

concept assessment, life cycle analysis, and programmatic evaluation

-Financial engineering analysis for next-generation aerospace applications and markets

-Technology impact analysis and quantitative technology portfolio optimization

-Commercial development of space

-Media materials related to space

-Engineering software development

Clients:- NASA, U.S. DoD, commercial space companies

SPACEWORKS ENGINEERING, INC. (SEI)


SPACEWORKS: KEY CUSTOMERS BY DIVISION


REUSABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES


SPACECRAFT


HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION


PLANETARY DEFENSE


COMMERCIAL SPACE


SPACEWORKS COMMERCIAL: CURRENT PROJECTS

Space Venture AcceleratorWe look to leverage internal and external resources to champion our

own ventures.

NanoLaunch Services [incubator study]SpaceWorks Commercial is examining the market demand and

launch supply for small satellites, focusing on the microsatellite (10-

100 kg) and nanosatellite (1-10 kg) markets.

FastForward Study Group [incubator study] The FastForward study group is an ad-hoc study group involving pre-

competitive analysis and assessment of future global high speed

point-to-point (PTP) passenger and cargo services.

Google Lunar X PRIZE [partnership support]SpaceWorks Commercial is assisting Astrobotic Technology, Inc.,

one of the leading contenders for the Google Lunar X PRIZE, to

analyze the commercial potential of future lunar robotic missions.

Space Solar Power Economics [incubator study]SpaceWorks Commercial continues to examine the potential cost and

economics of Space Solar Power (SSP). This includes the cost of a

demonstrator and near-term, operational system.

Spaceport Field Guide [tool development]SpaceWorks Commercial has developed a Google Earth plug-in that

offers a database of worldwide launch sites.


SPACEWORKS COMMERCIAL SSP INTEREST

- The viability of Space Solar Power to compete and supply electricity for consumption on the Earth has been debated for quite sometime.

- SpaceWorks Commercial has been analyzing the economics of SSP

- Part of ongoing IAA study on SSP (J. Mankins)

- Past experience in space economics and transportation analysis of SSP

- Presentation at Space Power Canada IAC 2008/9

- Review of previous economic analysis (1970s to today)

- Some new analyses (parametric for full-scale system and more in-depth for pilot plan)

- Specific Analysis

- Full scale economic analysis

- Top level economic analysis for a notional Space Solar Power company (full up system) and analyzing breakout between space transportation costs and all other costs (terrestrial markets)

- Global electricity price analysis including niche customer analysis (humanitarian, remote sites, military, etc.) to determine price points and quantity/schedule of demand

- Three top-level system economic analysis

- First Revenue satellite economic analysis

- Hybrid public-private system, interim 1-2 satellite system


SSP CONCEPTS FOR IAA 2010 REPORT


DOE/NASA 1970s STUDY ECONOMICS


DOE/NASA STUDY: SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE

Sources:

- Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.

- Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under

Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.

SSP SATELLITE

(60 satellites x 51,000 MT, 300 GW)LEO BASE

MAINTENANCE BASE


DOE/NASA STUDY: SPACE TRANSPORTATION

Sources:

- Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.

- Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under

Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.

CARGO LAUNCH TO LEO: HLLV ASTRONAUT LAUNCH TO LEO: PLV

ASTRONAUT LEO-GEO TRANSFER: POTVCARGO LEO-GEO TRANSFER: EOTV)


1970s DOE/NASA STUDY: TRANSPORTATION COST ESTIMATES

Space

Transportation

ElementDDT&E Cost

(in US$M,

FY2009)

Avg.

Transportation

Cost/SPS

(in US$M,

FY2009)

Cost Per Flight

(in US$M,

FY2009)

Payload

(MT)

Cost Per kg

(in $/kg,

FY2009)

HLLV $40,350 M $ 7,038 M $ 36 M 424 MT $ 86 / kg

EOTV $8,094 M $ 2,071 M $ 147 M 4,000 MT $ 37 / kg

PLV $9,423 M $ 937 M $ 39 M 89 MT $ 433 / kg

POTV $ 3,645 M $ 46 M $ 5 M 90 MT $ 52 / kg

1970s DOE/NASA Study: Space Transportation ElementsOther space infrastructure elements not included including LEO and GEO bases

•Notes: NASA New Start Inflation Index used to inflate 1977 values, EOTV payload is from LEO to GEO

•Sources:

•Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.

•Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.


1970s DOE/NASA STUDY: COST ESTIMATES

Cost to First Unit

“SPS” Space

Segment Specific

(in $M, FY2009)

Transportation/

Ground System

(in $M, FY2009)

Total

(in $M, FY2009)

Research $ 1,171 $ 162 $ 1,333

Engineering Verification $ 11,555 $ 17,091 $ 28,647

Demonstration $ 33,679 $ 48,850 $ 82,529

Investment $ 74,457 $ 133,404 $ 207,861

Production $ 29,367 $ 19,148 $ 48,515

TOTAL $ 150,229 $ 218,656 $ 368,884

1970s DOE/NASA Study (baseline)60 satellites (300 GW) over 30 years, 32.5 operational years, Learning effect = 85%, SPS mass (each) = 50,984 MT

ESTIMATED TOTAL COST: 1970s DOE/NASA Study (baseline): $2,544,997 M

Cost Per Unit Cost (in $M, FY2009) % of Total Unit Cost

Satellite $ 18,125 50.0%

Construction $ 2,629 7.2%

Transportation $ 10,093 27.8%

Ground System $ 3,872 10.7%

Management $ 1,549 4.3%

TOTAL $ 36,269 100.0%

•Notes: NASA New Start Inflation Index used to inflate 1977 values

•Sources:

•Harron, R. J., Wadle, R. C., “Solar Power Satellite Cost Estimate,” NASA Technical Memorandum 58231, January 1981.

•Kieroiff, H. E., “Satellite Power System (SPS) Financial/Management Scenarios,” Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. EG-77-C-01-4024, October 1978.


TOP LEVEL SSP ECONOMIC ANALYSIS


COST COMPARISON OF LARGE AND SMALL SCALE NPV FOR SSP

- Source: Xin, S., et al., “Financial and Organizational Analysis for a Space Solar power System: “A business plan to make Space Solar Power a reality,” May 18, 2009.


FULL-SCALE COMMERCIAL SSP SYSTEM ANALYSIS: ASSUMPTIONS

- Top level financial model of a completely commercial, full-scale SSP project

- Economic environment- Discount Rate: 10%, Inflation rate: 2.10%, Tax Rate: 35% Real, Average Ann. Interest Rate: 7.5%,

Reported in $2009 USD

- Program - Starting FY: 2012, IOC: 2020, Program End:20 Years from IOC, DDT&E: 6 Years

- IRR: 10%

- SSP System- SSP Mass:

- Mass of Satellite: 22,500 MT

- Total # of Satellites: 21, 1st year Satellites : 3, Additional Satellites: 2/year

- Power Generation of Each Satellite: 4 GW

- 85% Learning Curve, Refurbishment Mass/year: 14,850 MT, Mass Launched/year: 59,850 MT

- Other assumptions- DDT&E represent 15% of total other costs (TOC)

- 71% of DDT&E was allocated towards in space development.

- 29% was allocated toward ground development.

- Acquisition represented 40% of TOC

- 91% of acquisition costs were allocated to space operations.

- Facilities represented 4% of TOC

- 60% of facilities costs were in space

- Yearly operations accounted for 15% of TOC

- 66% of operations costs were space based.

- In-Space Launch to GEO represented 25% of TOC

- All In-Space Launch costs were incurred in space.

- Disposal accounted for 1% of TOC


$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

LE

O T

ran

sp

ora

tio

n C

os

ts (

$/k

g)

All Other Life Cycle Cost Elements ($/kg)$.60/kwh

$0.10/kWh

$0.50/kWh

$0.60/kWh $0.75/kWh$1.00/kWh

Denotes highest current grid price

Space Hardware

Cost Comparisons:

- SSP-ISS Demo E

$90,909$/kg

- ISS:

$115,259/kg

- NEAR:

$181,083/kg

- Mars Pathfinder:

$430,787/kg

- Lunar Prospector:

$340,569/kg

- Landsat-7:

$252,941/kg

-Iridium Satellite:

$7,257/kg

-1970 DOE/NASA SPS:

-$356/kg (no DDT&E)

Delta IV-H

Each Line Represents

Corresponding Price

At NPV= 0 (WACC=10%)

Iridium Satellite

Soyuz

TOP LEVEL ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE OF FULL-SCALE SSP

$0.30/kWh

Currency 2009 USD

Falcon 9H

**Argus

Other Launch

Vehicle Cost

Comparisons:

Falcon 1:

$9,010/kg

STS:

$10,460/kg

Atlas V Heavy:

$11,513/kg

DOE/NASA HLLV:

$85/kg

**Study Level Future RLV

1970s HLLV

1970s SPS satellite

GOVERNMENT

SUPPORT (DDT&E, etc.)

RLVs


ECONOMIC COMPARISON

- Reviewed Four Major Space Solar Power Reports

- 1978 DOE Satellite Power System

- ESA Advanced Concepts Team Earth and Space Based Power Generation Systems Comparison Study

- ISU Space Solar Program Report

- NASA Fresh Look

- Mined the reports for cost data

- Space Power Satellite Mass (kg) versus Power (kW)

- Space Power Satellite System Cost (2010 US$) per Satellite

- Space Power Satellite cost (2010 US$) versus mass (kg)

- Space Power Satellite cost (2010 US$) Vs. delivered power (kW)

- Sale Price (2010US$/kWhr)


Space Power Satellite Cost (US$2010/kg) for Various Study Architectures

$532

$93

$302

$195$266

$78 $56 $36

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

SPS

Ref

ere

nce

Sys

tem

-G

AA

lAs

-1

20

GW

SPS

Ref

ere

nce

Sys

tem

-Si

-1

20

GW

ESA

SP

S -

0.5

GW

ESA

SP

S -

5G

W

ESA

SP

S -1

0G

W

ESA

SP

S -

50

GW

ESA

SP

S -

10

0G

W

ESA

SP

S -

50

0G

W

ISU

SSP

Lar

ge S

cale

Im

ple

me

nta

tio

n -

60

0G

W

US

$2010/k

g


Space Power Satellite Cost (kg/kW) for Various Study Architectures

6.80

10.20

7.07

2.44

6.45

1.290.64 0.27

8.00

0.16 0.020

2

4

6

8

10

12

SPS

Ref

ere

nce

Sys

tem

-G

AA

lAs

-1

20

GW

SPS

Ref

ere

nce

Sys

tem

-Si

-1

20

GW

ESA

SP

S -

0.5

GW

ESA

SP

S -

5G

W

ESA

SP

S -1

0G

W

ESA

SP

S -

50

GW

ESA

SP

S -

10

0G

W

ESA

SP

S -

50

0G

W

ISU

SSP

Fir

st B

usi

ne

ss

Ap

plic

atio

n -

0.0

1G

W

ISU

SSP

Inte

rme

dia

te

Bu

sin

ess

Ap

plic

atio

n -…

ISU

SSP

Lar

ge S

cale

Im

ple

me

nta

tio

n -

60

0G

W

kg

/kW


BACKGROUND TO FIRST REVENUE SATELLITE ANALYSIS


Benchmark – Generators at US Military Bases in forward-deployed regions

Joint Force Quarterly #57 (2nd Quarter, April 2010)

- A single typical 60-kilowatt generator burns 4 ~ 5 gallons per hour

- Cost of Fuel

- Afghanistan: $17.44/gal

- Iraq : $13.80/gal

- Estimation for Cost of Electricity

- Afghanistan: (17.44 $/gal x 4 gallons/hour )/(60 kW) = 1.16 $/kWh

- Iraq : (13.80 $/gal x 4 gallons/hour)/(60 kW) = 0.92 $/kWh

Space-Based Solar Power Report by National Security Space Office

- When all indirect and support costs are included, it is estimated that the DoD currently spends over $1 per kilowatt hour for electrical power delivered to troops in forward military bases in war regions.


Case Study: Botswana - Morupule B Generation and Transmission Project

- Organization: Botswana Power Corporation

- Region: Botswana (2009 ~ 2014)

- Purpose: Developing reliable supply of electricity and Promoting

alternative energy sources for low-carbon growth

- Construction of a 600 MW (4 x 150 MW) coal-fired power station

- Preparing a low-carbon growth strategy (50MW Solar targeted by

2016)

- Price: 5 cents/kWh (20 cents/kWh for Solar Power)

- Financing

Loan Details: 40-years term with no interests (IBRD)

20-years term with 1.336% interests (ADB)

Financial IRR = 6.7%

Total Project Cost $ 905.4M 100.0%

IBRD – World Bank $ 98.2M 10.8%

African Development Bank (ADB) $ 139.3M 15.4%

Middle Income Country Trust Fund Grant $ 0.6 M 0.1%

ICBC – Standard Bank $ 535.7M 59.2%

Borrower (The Government of Botswana) $ 131.6M 14.5%

Source: African Development Bank (http://www.afdb.org)


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Documents

Economic Assessments of Space Solar Power (SSP): Past …-SpaceWorks Commercial has been analyzing the economics of SSP-Part of ongoing IAA study on SSP (J. Mankins)-Past experience