Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecastfondationvanallen.edu.umontpellier.fr/files/2017/11/SpaceWorks_study_2016.pdfThe 2016 SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value

2016 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast

Copyright 2016, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

2 2016 VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2016

2016 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast

Developed by: Mr. Bill Doncaster Senior Systems Engineer [email protected] | +1.770.379.8006 Mr. Jordan Shulman Chief Financial Officer [email protected] | +1.770.379.8012 Published by: SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) Atlanta, GA


SpaceWorks’ 2015 Projection estimated between 163 and 212 nano/microsatellites across all sectors would launch globally in 2015; 131 nano/microsatellites actually launched. This represented a decrease of 17% compared to the record year in 2014.

2015

2016+ SpaceWorks’ 2016 Forecast reflects an escalating backlog due to limited launch opportunities in 2015. This year’s forecast is more than 35% higher than our 2014 estimate, which is largely driven by the commercial sector’s continued interest in nano/microsatellite applications.


SpaceWorks Satellite Forecasting/Assessment Overview Since 2008, SpaceWorks has actively monitored global

satellite activities and has provided customized market assessments in all mass classes (0.1-kg to 10,000-kg) for commercial and government customers in the satellite and launch vehicle communities

These forecasts often consider a combination of mission characteristics (country, sector, frequency band(s), orbital parameters, propulsion type, etc.) in order to reveal specific trends in the industry • SpaceWorks’ proprietary Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB), a

catalogue of nearly 4,000 historical and future missions, serves as the data source for all assessments

• The LDDB includes public and non-public satellite projects/programs and is continually updated with new project announcements, program cancellations, launch successes (and failures)

SpaceWorks-developed market assessments deliver valuable industry knowledge to our customers, enabling organizations to make informed future investment decisions


Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology

Many nanosatellites are based on the “CubeSat” standard • Developed in by California Polytechnic State

University and Stanford University in 1999 • Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10

cm units • Each unit, or “U”, usually has a volume of

exactly one liter • Each “U” has a mass close to 1 kg and not to

exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass between 3 and 4 kg)

This report bounds the upper range of interest

in microsatellites at 50 kg given the relative large amount of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg range by comparison to the 50-100 kg range

Satellite Class Mass Range

Femtosatellite 10 – 100 g

Picosatellite < 1 kg

Nanosatellite 1 – 10 kg

Scope of this study 1 – 50 kg

Microsatellite 10 – 100 kg

Small Satellite 100 – 500 kg

Aalborg University’s AAUSAT4 CubeSat


2015 Highlights

Three major launch failures from late 2014 through 2015 slowed the pace of launches and contributed to a growing backlog of nano/microsatellites • The October 2014 failure of Antares, June 2015 failure of Falcon 9, and the

November 2015 failure of Super Strypi resulted in the loss of 51 small satellites in addition to the primary payloads

• Launch delays of Antares and Falcon 9, for 18+ months and 6 months respectively, decreased ride-share opportunities in 2015

First flight of SHERPA, a large payload adapter for nano/microsatellites, was delayed from 2015 to 2016 and is slated to deploy 87 satellites

Large constellations for communications and imagery continued to evolve their technology and business cases • Planet Labs attempted the launch of 50+ additional CubeSats. They continue to

build their constellation and indicate an interest in launch to higher and more operationally effective orbits

• Spire secured $40M in Series B funding and announced a 100 satellite constellation to be launched by end of 2017

Flock-1 CubeSats deployed from ISS on April 14, 2015

Credit: AMSAT-UK

Spire 3U Lemur-2 CubeSat Credit SpaceNews


2015 Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated Examples

Communications Fox-1A

Mass: 1.3 kg Launched: 10/2015

Technology AeroCube 8A

Mass: 3 kg Launched: 5/2015

Earth Observation Flock-2b


Scientific ExoCube


Technology GOMX-3


Scientific LightSail 1


Credit: http://space.skyrocket.de/ Credit: Planet Labs Credit: http://www.amsat.org

Credit: http://polysat.calpoly.edu Credit: http://www.esa.int/ Credit: http://space.skyrocket.de/


SpaceWorks Satellite Forecasting/Assessment Methodology

Launch Demand DB

Probabilistic Forecast Model

Expert Judgment

SpaceWorks Forecast

The forecast is developed based on data from the SpaceWorks

Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB) SpaceWorks Probabilistic Forecast Model (PFM) generates best

case estimates for future spacecraft missions based on historical trends, announced projects, and expected market segment growth

PFM produces forecasted market data such as satellite launch count, mass, orbital destination, mission type, sector, operating country, and more

PFM results are interpreted and refined using expert knowledge,

historical indicators, and value judgment for future missions

The SpaceWorks Nano/Microsatellite Forecast represents the most likely outcome based on current trends and launch capacity


352 379

407 435

422

480 530

575

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 20

10

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellite

s (1

-50 k

g)

Calendar Year

Full Market Potential SpaceWorks Forecast Historical Launches

Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Forecast (1 - 50 kg)

* Please see End Notes 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.

The 2016 Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs. The 2016 SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.

Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate as many as 3,000 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2016 through 2022

16-001


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Historical (2009 - 2015) SpaceWorks Forecast (2016 - 2018)

Perc

enta

ge o

f Sat

ellite

s

Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 – 50 kg)

Commercial sector will contribute over

70% of future nano/microsatellites

Civil Government Commercial Defense/Intelligence

* Please see End Notes 2, 5, 6, and 7.

The commercial sector will increase its proportional representation over the next three years, to the extent that it will soon account for the majority of spacecraft launched in the 1 – 50 kg class


1%

73% 18%

8%

7%

37%

47%

9%

Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 – 50 kg)

Technology

Communications Communications

Historical (2009 – 2015)

SpaceWorks Forecast

(2016 - 2018)

Technology

Scientific

Earth Observation / Remote Sensing

Scientific

Earth Observation / Remote Sensing

* Please see End Notes 2, 5, and 6.

As key companies move toward operations, a smaller proportion of technology development/demonstration nano/microsatellites will be built in the next few years

More than 70% of future nano/microsatellites will be used for Earth observation and remote sensing purposes (compared to 37% from 2009 to 2015)


Nanosatellite Size Trends (1 - 10 kg)

* Please see End Notes 2, 5, 6, and 8.

While still widely used by academia, 1 - 3 kg CubeSats will comprise less than 30% of the market in the future (compared to 71% from 2009 to 2013)

Over 60% of future nanosatellites (1 - 10 kg) will be in the increasingly popular 4 - 6 kg mass class (compared to only 23% from 2009 to 2013)

1 - 3 kg

4 - 6 kg

7 - 10 kg

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Calendar Year


0

20

40

60

80

100

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160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellite

s

Calendar Year

Historical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2000 - 2015 (1 - 50 kg)

1 – 10 kg 11 – 50 kg

With over 40% average annual growth in attempted deliveries since 2012 the nanosatellite (1-10 kg) market continues to attract both government and commercial interest

* Please see End Notes 1 and 2.

Continued popularity in the 1-10 kg mass

range


2015 Nano/Microsatellites Rides to Space

Low cost piggy-back opportunities on medium and heavy-lift launch vehicles have attracted small satellite payloads; Many small dedicated launchers under development could change this trend


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Long March 11

Delta II

PSLV

Super-Strypi

Long March 6

H-2B

Falcon 9

Atlas V

No. of Satellites No. of Launches


2016 Case Study #1: Small Satellite Launch Vehicles

Just as the number of nano/microsatellite operators is rapidly growing, many small launch vehicles are being developed to meet the growing demand • Secondary payload “ride-share”

opportunities are currently responsible for most nano/microsatellites launches

• Small launch vehicles are being developed to offer dedicated launch services to nano/microsatellites

2015 was an active year in small launch vehicle development • Super Strypi, experienced a launch

failure shortly after liftoff in its first attempt while carrying 12 small satellites to a sun-synchronous orbit

• Rocket Lab announced an inaugural launch scheduled for Q4 2016

• DARPA cancelled the ALASA project in November 2015 and Escape Dynamics ceased operations at the end of 2015 due to lack of funding

Though no clear winner has emerged, compelling evidence suggests the industry has a need for

small launch vehicles

Launch System

LEO1 Payload (kg)

Stated IOC Date

Target Launch Price Configuration

Electron 165 2016 $30K/kg Ground-launched two-stage rocket

LauncherOne 225 20172 $45K/kg Air-launched expendable rocket

SOAR 250 2017 $44K/kg Fully-reusable, rocket spaceplane

Super Strypi 300 2015 $54K/kg Ground-launched 3-stage solid

M-OV 363-454 tbd tbd Ground-launched hybrid rocket

Alpha 400 2016 $21K/kg Ground-launched two-stage rocket

bloostar 90 2017 tbd Ship-launched with balloon and rocket

GOLauncher 2 44 2018 $57K/kg Air launched, with solid and liquid

* Please see End Notes 2, 3, 5, and 6. 1. SSO payload values converted to low-inclination LEO equivalent values 2. Estimated/Test Flights 3. For 50kg payload 4. Commercial pricing

Rideshare Provider

LEO1 Payload

(kg)

Stated IOC Date

Target Launch Price Configuration

Spaceflight Launch Services 165 2013 $35K/kg3 Rideshare broker for numerous

launch vehicles

Spaceflight SHERPA 1200 2016 tbd Purposed designed payload adapter

with propulsion for orbital maneuvers

Nanoracks 4-8 2013 $60K/kg4 ISS deployment with resupply mission launch rideshare


Case Study #2: Addressability Forecasting of 1 kg – 50 kg Satellites


Many addressable satellite operators choose non-U.S. launch vehicles due to attractive

pricing and availability

2015 Satellites Launched on Non-U.S. Launchers

2015 Satellites Launched on U.S. Launchers

Forecasted Non-addressable Satellites

Forecasted Addressable Satellites

As the satellite industry rapidly grows geopolitical factors become increasingly important • U.S.-based launch vehicles have not been able to

address Chinese and Russian satellites • As emerging markets develop their own launch

vehicles, U.S.-based launch vehicles will experience escalating competition for foreign satellites

Nano/microsatellites are forecasted to be >90% addressable by U.S.-based launch vehicles • Addressable constellations of commercial satellites

and increasing number of civil technology satellites comprise the majority of forecasted nano/microsatellites

• Non-addressable nano/microsatellites will grow as nations develop launch capabilities

Although almost all of the nano/microsatellites are addressable by U.S. launch vehicles only 60% actually launch on U.S. launch vehicles


2016 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast Conclusions

The commercial sector continues to realize the utility of nano/microsatellites and the valuable data and insight they can deliver to terrestrial companies; announced plans suggest this trend will continue

The civil sector continues to be involved in the industry, but in terms of quantity, the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities continues to drive the nano/microsatellite market

Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate as many as 3,000 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2016 through 2022

Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):

• Historical average growth of 39% per year over the last 5 years (2010 – 2015)

• SpaceWorks’ Forecast Dataset shows average growth of 13% per year over the next 6 years (2016 – 2022)

2014 and 2015 Antares and Falcon 9 launch failures have created a backlog of small satellites that will need a launch in 2016-2018

While there is a consistent number of nano/microsatellites launched and deployed from the International Space Station, there is significant growth in future dedicated launches for small satellites

* Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.


SpaceWorks Forecasting / Assessment Offerings

Since 2008, SpaceWorks has actively monitored global satellite activity and completes customized market assessments for commercial and government customers in the satellite and launch vehicle communities. SpaceWorks’ commercially-available market assessments provide valuable insights into this dynamic market, enabling clients to make sound future investment decisions. Assessments can be provided at a frequency determined by the customer; quarterly and bi-annual reports are the most popular.

SpaceWorks can provide forecasts of satellite market trends based on the following characteristics, depending on customer needs:

• Mass class • Country of satellite

owner/operator • Sector of satellite

owner/operator • Uplink or downlink

frequency band(s)

• Addressability • Satellite application • Orbital parameters • Satellite lifetime • Power • Propulsion system • Launch vehicle

• Expendable/reusable launch services • LEO payload delivery • ISS commercial crew/cargo services • Propellant depots w/ commercial resupply • Space tourism • Space-based solar power • Satellite servicing • High speed point-to-point transportation

In addition to the satellite market, SpaceWorks can determine commercial viability and forecast markets and trends in other key industry segments:

• Picosatellite: • Nanosatellite: • Microsatellite: • Small satellites: • Medium satellites: • Large satellites: • Extra-large satellites:

Forecasting services are available in the following standard satellite mass classes (custom mass ranges also available):

For additional information or to request a quote for our custom support packages and market forecasting services, please contact:

Mr. Bill Doncaster | Senior Systems Engineer | SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. | 1+770.379.8006 | [email protected]

<1 kg 1 – 10 kg 11 – 100 kg 101 – 500 kg 501 – 1,000 kg 1,001 – 5,000 kg 5,001 kg+


End Notes 1. The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite co-

manifested on a particular launch vehicle). Historical data includes failed launch attempts. 2. The data used throughout this presentation (both historical and future) may not represent all global nano/microsatellite activities. 3. The SpaceWorks Forecast and Full Market Potential datasets include some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date

has not been announced. The satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the announced program objectives.

4. Future projections from 2019-2022 are determined by Gompertz logistic curve “best fit” regression with a set market saturation point (asymptote for number of satellites).

5. The Full Market Potential dataset contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of an inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs and the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies. The SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.

6. These graphs are based on the SpaceWorks Forecast data set only, and do not include the additional satellites contained in the Full Market Potential dataset.

7. By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. “Government” refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that occur within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g. universities, federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency.

8. Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included.


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Documents

Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecastfondationvanallen.edu.umontpellier.fr/files/2017/11/SpaceWorks_study_2016.pdfThe 2016 SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value