East-timor Rail Master Plan

7/31/2019 East-timor Rail Master Plan

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PRESENTED BY

LAFAEK BESI LDA.DEVELOPMENT COMPANYDili, [email protected]

EAST-TIMOR RAIL MASTER PLAN

LEAD SUMMARY ricardo nunes may 2012 * pg 1/22


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COV

A LI MA

AI NAR O

BOBONARO

LIQUI

A

DILI

AI LE U

MANUFAHI

MANATUTO

BAUCAU

VIQUEQUE

LAUTEM

ERMERA

OECUSSI

T

ata Mai Lau(2963 m)

Fohorem

FatolulicLoloto

Bobonaro

T

ilomar

Mape

Hato Builico

MaubisseLetetoho

Fatu Beso

Atabae

Bazar

tete

Railaco

Lacl

Laleia

Turiscai

Hatudo

Alas

Fato Berliu

Barique

LaclutaLaclubar

Umaboco

V

er

masse

Ossu

V

enilale

Laga

Quelicai

Uatolari

Baquia

Uato CarabauIliomar

Luro

Fuiloro

Ma

nal

N

tibe O

Silo

Er

meraAileu

Los Palos

V

iqueque

MalianaAinaro Same

S

e

i

c

a

l

L

a

c

l

o

C

i

e

r

e

S

a

h

e

n

Tim

or

Is

la

n

I N D O N E S I A

COVA LIMA

AI NAR O

BOBONARO

LIQUIA

DILI

AI LE U

MANUFAHI

MANATUTO

BAUCAU

VIQUEQUE

LAUTEM

ERMERA

OECUSSI

Fohorem

FatolulicLoloto

Bobonaro

Batugade

Tilomar

Mape

Hato Builico

MaubisseLetetoho

Fatu Beso

Atabae

Bazartete

Railaco

MetinaroLacl Laleia

Turiscai

HatudoBetano

Alas

Fato Berliu

Barique

LaclutaLaclubar

Umaboco

Maubara

Vermasse

Ossu

Venilale

BucliLaga

Quelicai

Uatolari

Aliambata

Baquia

Uato CarabauIliomar

Luro

LaivaiLautm

Fuiloro

Manal

Com

Lor

Tutuala

B Aco

Ntibe O SiloKitrana

Sacato

Passabe

Atauro

Biquele

Berau

Oecussi

Liquia

Ermera

Manatuto

Aileu

Baucau

Los Palos

Viqueque

Maliana

Suai

Ainaro Same

DILI

JacoIsland

AtauroIsland

RomangIsland

WetarIsland

AlorIsland

RantarIsland

Tim

or

Is

la

nd

I N D O N E S I A

I N D O N E S I A

Se

ica

l

Laclo

Ciere

Sa

hen

Timor Sea

Savu Sea

W et a r

S t ra i t

ToNaikliu

ToKualaLumpur

Cape Cutch

Cape Tei

Cape de Lor

CapeCorimbala

Cape Tafara

CapeCaltec

Cape Deilubn

Tata Mai Lau(2963 m)

124 125 126 127

10

9

10

9

8

124 125 126

127

TIMOR-LESTE

This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

0 10 20

0 10 20 30 Miles

30 Kilometers

IBRD

33496

JANUARY2005

T IMOR-LESTE

SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS

DISTRICT CAPITALS

NATIONAL CAPITAL

RIVERS

MAIN ROADS

DISTRICT BOUNDARIES

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES


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1. CAPTION

2. RATIONALE

3. NETWORK

4. TOURISM

5. ECONOMIC FRAME

6. DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME

7. COMPONENTS

8. FINANCE

9. COST ESTIMATES

10. SISTER PROJECTS




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CAPTION

A ONE-TRACK RAIL BACKBONE FOR THE REPUBLIC OF EAST-TIMOR, ELECTRICITY POWERED, TO HANDLE PASSENGER ANDCARGO TRAFFIC, AT MEDIUM SPEED.

THEME

Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country no laterthan 2030 ... The economy will be modern and well diversified ...Timor-Lestes tradition as a rural economy will have changed

markedly ... Well over half of the population will live in urbanareas, where the service economy flourishes




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RATIONALE

IT BEFALLS THE MAUBERE GOVERNMENTS THE DAUNTING TASK OF PROVIDINGBETTER THAN FREEDOM FROM WANT LIVING CONDITIONS TO A YOUNGPOPULATION THAT WILL DOUBLE IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS, TO BRING ABOUTAN AMIABLE AND INTELLIGENT POLIS.

TO MAKE IT TO 2030 ONE NEEDS TO

1. FATHER ONE MILLION MORE PEOPLE

2. BUILD FROM SCRATCH ENTIRE BRAND NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS

3. PUT IN PLACE MASSIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE

AS FOR THE INVESTMENT, WE BEG TO OFFER A FRESH LINE OF THINKING:

RAIL INDUCED DEVELOPMENT




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THE OTHER ONE MILLION TIMORESE TO COME, BORN TO A DIFFERENT TIME ANDPACE, SHALL NOT BE UNEMPLOYED TOWNSHIP DWELLERS OR LIVE IN ISOLATEDRURAL SUCOS FED BY TRADITIONAL SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE. IN 2030, A FEWWILL BE FARMERS RATHER THAN PEASANTS, MANY MORE WILL WORK IN INDUSTRYAND SERVICES, LIVING IN HOUSING SPRAWLS SPREAD AROUND CITY CENTERSKNITTED TOGETHER BY THE CENTRAL TRUNK RAILROAD.

INFRASTRUCTURE WORKS THAT ARE LABOUR INTENSIVE ATRACT PEOPLE TO THEDEVELOPMENT AREAS WHERE OTHER JOBS WILL SOON BE ON OFFER FOR THEMAND THEIR BETTER EDUCATED CHILDREN.

INVESTMENT MONIES TRICKLE DOWN THE ECONOMY TO STIMULATE DEMAND,SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT, MOVING PEOPLE AND IDEAS TO A GENTLER URBAN WAYOF LIFE.

WE HAVE TO BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF THIS VISION TODAY.




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Roads play a vital role in the economy and country integration of Timor-Leste. Roadsare the primary mode of transport, carrying about 90% of passengers, and 70% offreight.

BUT (ADB Project nr. 45094-01)

Recent surveys indicate that almost the entire core road network is in an un-maintainable condition. Only about 8% of the core road network was assessed to bein fair condition, about 22% in poor condition, and about 70% in very poorcondition.

THEN, RAIL ...

1. Rail is more efficient as it reduces fuel consumption, is less environmentallypolluting, and shortens travel time as well as being safer.

2. Transporting cargo by rail is 6 times more efficient compared to road (i.e. railtrains consume 80% less fuel than trucks) and for passenger, rail is 20 times

more efficient.

3. Motive energy tapped from the national grid (powered by natural gas and hydrosites), which is much cleaner than diesel or petrol used in cars and trucks.




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...

4. The network allows for development to be more dispersed as people working incities can live outside. Better rail services will benefit lower income groups andrural communities.

5. A cost-benefit study conducted by an international consultant, for the ElectrifiedDouble Track Project (EDTP) from Ipoh to Padang Besar, in Malaysia, estimatedthe EDTP would yield an Economic Internal rate of Return (EIRR) of 15%, abovethe benchmark 12% for transport projects.

6. This EIRR assessment measures the economic benefits over the economic costsof the project at the National level, focusing on the long-term viability.

7. Spin-offs to local services and industries will have multiplier effects that willgreatly stimulate the economy (medium term GDP growth).

8. While the capital cost of electrifying track is high, electric trains andlocomotives are capable of higher performance and lower operational costs than

steam or diesel power. Electric locomotives, because they tend to be lesstechnically complex than diesel-electric locomotives, are both easier andcheaper to maintain and have extremely long working lives.




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NETWORK

CENTRAL LINE: BOBONARO - LOS PALOS

WEST LINE: CORRIDOR DILI-BETANO

EAST LINE: CORRIDOR BAUCAU - UATOLARI

to move people, crops, raw materials, parts and products in cheaper, faster andsafer conditions

to airlift cargo (land produce and industrial products) from Baucau to the world




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TOURISM

Lavish GSHOW*****1 train carriages negociate Timor scenic landscape to unfurlstaggering mountain expanses and wide tropical ocean views to world classtravelers.

On the way, a handful of boutique hotels sitting in unspoiled hideouts and historiccantonments are ideal stopovers.



1 Grand Sauros Hotel on Wheels


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Maubara




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ECONOMIC FRAME

Since oil production began in early 2000, Timor-Leste has built a sizable petroleumfund that reached 886 percent of non-oil GDP in 2011 (IMF, 2012). The PetroleumFund balance is expected to be $6.62 billion by end of2010, which is up from $5.38billion by end of 2009. The Petroleum Fund balance is estimated at $8.17 billion bythe end of 2011, $9.82 billion by the end of 2012 and $14.60 billion by end of 2015.

Generating vigorous growth in the non-oil economy will require higher productivityin agriculture, the wider provision of growth-enhancing infrastructure (roads,electricity, telecommunications), a major improvement in the private sector enablingenvironment, and a quantum increase in the countrys skills base.

Capital expenditure remained low before 2011, but the government recentlylaunched a strategic development plan that includes large infrastructure spending tobe partially financed by withdrawals from the petroleum fund.




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...

Since continued spending above ESI will erode the real value of the nationspetroleum wealth, clear economic criteria for exceeding ESI should be developed(e.g., limiting such expenditures to investments that promise high economic rates ofreturn). It would also be useful to examine the case for public borrowing, as this

offers an alternative to drawing on the Petroleum Fund (provided that debt is onconcessional terms, that appropriate management capacity is installed and that thecost of borrowing is less than the income foregone from Petroleum Fund assets) andexpands domestic capacity through contracting out. It will also be important tocrowd in private sector investment, thereby avoiding the inflation of factor prices.

The projections for 2012/2013/2017 show Timor-Leste as being the only Developing

Asian country to have consistent double digit GDP growth (World Economic Outlook,April 2012).




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DEMOGRAPHIC FRAME

Demographic projections, calculated for this report, indicate that the Timoresepopulation should increase by one-third by 2015 from its initial 2005 value, by four-fifths by 2025, and triple by 2050. (These results are similar to those in earlier

projections from the National Statistics Directorate.) In an alternative rapid growthscenario, the population could quadruple by 2050. In the medium scenario, annualpopulation growth rates start at 3.3 percent and fall slowly to 2.7 percent between2005 and 2025. This will lead Timor-Leste to equal Indonesia's current population

density by 2025. The population will age, but only slightly, with 40 percent stillyounger than 15 by 2025.

Some social sectors will be especially affected by rapid population growth. Theurban population, now about one-quarter of the total, is growing much faster thanthe rural population. Urban growth is 4.7 percent a year and will decline only to 4.4

percent by 2025, by which time the urban population will be 2.5 times its presentsize. Beyond 2025, the urban population could expand even more dramatically. The

rural population will grow more slowly, but will still increase 50 percent by 2025.World Bank - Policy Note on Population Growth and its Implications in Timor-Leste (Oct.9, 2008)




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PROJECT COMPONENTS

1. RAILS (CLDB)

2. EMBANKMENTS (CLDB)

3. BRIDGES (CLDB)

4. TUNNELS (CLDB)

5. STATIONS (CLDB)

6. FIELD LINES (CLDB)

7. ROLLING STOCK (PRIVATE)

8. NATIONAL GRID (GOVT.)

9. POWER STATIONS (GOVT.)

10. ACCESS ROADS (GOVT.)




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FINANCE

COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) SHARES

Notional one dollar share capital 100% owned by the 13 districts. Voting rights andprofit entitlements apportioned pro-rata of the last population census.

COMPANHIA LAFAEK DALAN BESI (CLDB) BONDS

CLDB to issue perpetual callable state guaranteed bonds, placed by the Central Bankwith the Petroleum Fund and other Timor based institutional investors. Interestpayments indexed to the rail network access fees charged to rolling stock ownercompanies.

LEASEHOLD RIGHTS

All land occupied by the network and main (downtown) city centers close to it isheld on 99 year leases from the State. Proceeds from the sale of such lease rightsare used to fund the project (buy CLDB bonds).




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COST ESTIMATES

500 km x US$10 mio = US$5 bn

Here are some sample new railway project costs as published in the railway tradepress. The prices published by operators usually include all civil and equipment

costs, project and financing costs.

Complete Rail Projects

Railway> Date Type of System Cost per km Distance

Madrid - Albacete 2010 High Speed line 9.57 million 304 kms

Yichang-Wanzhou, China 2011 Main line $9.1 million 377 kms

Haikou-Sanya, China 2010 High Speed line $10.0 million 308 kms




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YichangWanzhou Railway, an important railway linking Central China and West China, will beopened to traffic on November 20, 2010. When it opens, it will only take about 10 hours fromWuhan to Chongqing (compared with 18 hours before) by express trains, and about 21 hoursfrom Chengdu to Shanghai (saving more than 10 hours than before).

YichangWanzhou Railway stretches 377 kilometers(234 miles) from Yichang City, Hubei Province toWanzhou District of Chongqing City, and joinsShanghai-Chengdu Railway, which passes Shanghai,Nanjing, Hefei, Wuhan, Yichang, Chongqing and

Chengdu along the way. Because of the complexgeologic conditions, YichangWanzhou Railway isregarded as the most difficult railway project inChina. It cost 60 million yuan per kilometer, which istwice as much as that ofQinghaiTibet Railway. Thetotal length of tunnels and bridges is about 279kilometers (173 miles), taking up 74% of the wholeline, hence the railway is said to be the museum of

tunnels and bridges.www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latest


http://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/qinghai-tibet-railway/http://www.chinahighlights.com/nanjing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/hefei/http://www.chinahighlights.com/yichang/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chengdu/http://www.chinahighlights.com/shanghai/http://www.chinahighlights.com/wuhan/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chongqing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latesthttp://www.chinahighlights.com/news/travel-latesthttp://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/qinghai-tibet-railway/http://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/qinghai-tibet-railway/http://www.chinahighlights.com/hefei/http://www.chinahighlights.com/hefei/http://www.chinahighlights.com/nanjing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/nanjing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/yichang/http://www.chinahighlights.com/yichang/http://www.chinahighlights.com/shanghai/http://www.chinahighlights.com/shanghai/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chengdu/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chengdu/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chongqing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/chongqing/http://www.chinahighlights.com/wuhan/http://www.chinahighlights.com/wuhan/


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SISTER PROJECTS

INDIA is undertaking one of its most challenging railway projects ever by building aline to connect Kashmir with the Himalayan foothills. The Kashmir Railway Project(KRP) is A 345 km extension of the Indian Railway network, being developed toprovide an alternative and reliable transportation system to the state of Jammu andKashmir. At the moment Kashmir is connected to the rest of India only by road.

Rails cross a total of over 750 bridges and pass through over 100 km of tunnels.

The estimated cost of the project is RS302 bn (US$5.7 bn).

MALAYSIA has undertaken the Electrification of Double Track Project (EDTP), whichruns through four states in the northern peninsular region of Malaysia. The projectinvolves the laying and electrification of a 329 km long double track near theexisting single track that runs from Ipoh in Perak to Padang Besar in Perlis.

The project is part of a master plan to improve the public transport system inMalaysia. Road transport constitutes 89% (as of April 2008) of the transportationsystem in Malaysia, causing congestion on the expressway.

Estimated to cost RM16.5 bn (US$5.4 bn), the Ipoh-Padang Besar electrification isMalaysia's largest and costliest railway project.




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MATE, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?

FOLIN KARUN LIU KA BARATU?

EXPENSIVE FOR A TRAIN,

CHEAP FOR A COUNTRY!




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Uatolari



Documents

East-timor Rail Master Plan