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1 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
2. 노동소득
1) 임금의결정
• 전반적으로는무역이익이있더라도, 모든사람의후생이증가한다는것을의미하지는않음.
• 상대가격변화가노동자, 토지소유자, 자본소유자의소득에어떤영향을미치는지를분석
• 먼저제조업상품의상대가격이상승하면노동자의소득이어떻게변하는지를분석
2 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor• 임금결정 각산업에서사용되는노동양의합은경제전체노동의양이됨.
수평축에왼쪽에서오른쪽으로제조업에서의노동의양
수평축에오른쪽에서왼쪽으로제조업에서의노동의양
• 각산업에서의임금곡선을표시(그림 3-5) PM · MPLM와 PA · MPLA을표시
PA · MPLA은우상향(노동이오른쪽에서왼쪽으로측정하므로)
균형임금은 2개의곡선이접하는점에서결정
LLL AM
3 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
WageWage
Manufacturing labor
Agriculture laborTotal labor
supply
L
0L L L0 AAMM
PM*MPLM is drawn from left to right
PM MPLM
Value of marginal product of manufacturing
PAMPLAValue of marginal product of agriculture
PA*MPLA is drawn from right to left
A
Labor market equilibrium
W
Labor Market Equilibrium is where the two curves cross
Allocation of Labor between Manufacturing and Agriculture
Figure 3.5
4 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
2) 제조업 상대가격변화
• 제조업의상대가격변화에대응하여노동에대한보수, 즉임금은어떻게변화하는가?
• 제조업상대가격이상승하고비무역균형점 A에서무역균형점(생산은 B, 소비는 C)으로이동함에따라, 생산요소에대한보수는어떻게변하는가?
5 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
• (명목)임금에대한영향
제조업상대가격상승은 PM이상승하거나 PA이하락하여발생
제조업가격은상승하지만농산물가격은변하지않는다고가정
PM · MPLM곡선이 ∆ PM · MPLM만큼위로이동
새로운균형점에서는임금은이전보다높아짐. LM은증가하고 LA은감소
6 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
B
PM'MPLM
Earnings of Labor
Wage Wage
PMMPLM
PAMPLA
AW
L
0L LL L0 AAMM
PM*MPLM shifts up creating a new equilibrium.
W’
Vertical distance= PM (MPLM)
ΔW
The vertical distance between the old and new curves is greater than the increase in wages.
Increase in the Price of Manufactured Goods
Figure 3.6
7 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
• 실질임금(Real Wages)에미치는영향 임금이상승이실질임금(노동자가살수있는식품이나제조업상품의양)이상승했다는것을의미하지는않음.
실질임금은가격변화에의해결정
PA는고정되었다고가정했으므로, 농산물을기준으로측정한실질임금은상승: W/PA증가
PM은상승한다고가정했고, W 또한상승
제조업상품기준실질임금은?
8 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
• 실질임금: 제조업상품기준 그림 3.6에서보면,
∆W < ∆PM·MPLM
양변을 W 로나누면,
∆W/W : 임금변화율 ∆PM/PM : 가격변화율
M
M
MM
MM
PP
MPLPMPLP
WW
9 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
• 제조업상품가격변화율(∆PM/PM ) 이임금변화율(∆W/W) 보다크므로
소득으로구입할수있는제조업상품의양이감소
즉제조업상품기준실질임금이하락
• 노동에대한총체적인영향 제조업상품의가격이상승한다는가정하에서는식품을기준실질임금은상승하나, 제조업상품기준실질임금은하락
가격변화이후에노동자의후생은증가하는가? 감소하는가? 그대답은알수없다(ambiguous)
10 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
• 영향이애매모호(ambiguous)한다는것은중요
이결과는리카르도모형(노동의실질임금은증가)과다른결과
특정요소모형에서의결론은 “무역은노동자에게불리하다” 혹은 “무역은노동자에게이롭다” 등과같은무역이노동자에미치는영향에대한절대적인주장에대한반박의논리
11 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor3) 특정요소모형에서실업
• 노동자가수입증가로인해해고를당했다는신문기사 많음.
• 이런결과가나타남에도불구하고대부분의경제학자들은무역은총체적으로는노동자들에게피해를반드시주지않는다고생각
• 특정요소모형에서는실업을고려하지않았다. 노동총량은항상 LM + LA이므로실업은없다. 왜실업을무시하는가? 실업은주로거시적인상황, 경기변동에의해결정무역으로해고를당하지만곧새로운직업을 찾음.
12 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Earnings of Labor
• 무역으로해고를당하나, 곧새로운직장을찾으므로(종종더높은임금을받고) “무역이노동자에게해를준다” 혹은“무역이노동자에게이익을준다”라고결론을내리기는어렵다.
• 새로운직업을찾는시간, 임금, 수입급증으로해고된사람들을지원하기위한정부 정책
• 대표적인예로미국의 “무역조정지원(TAA: Trade Adjustment Assistance)” 제도
APPLICATION
13 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Manufacturing and Services in the US
# 미국제조업과서비스업에서의고용과임금
• 특정요소모형에서는제조업과농업을가정했지만, 실제로는선진국에서농업에투입되는노동의양은적음.
• 선진국에서노동력이많이투입되는산업은서비스업
• 미국제조업에서고용은감소하고서비스업고용은증가
• 생산노동자의실질임금은 1979년과 1995년기간대부분낮아졌지만이후에는약간증가
APPLICATION
14 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Manufacturing and Services in the US
APPLICATION
15 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Manufacturing and Services in the US
APPLICATION
16 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
• 표 3-1을보면, 2003년 1월~2005년 12월동안제조업에서1.1백만명, 서비스업에서는 2.4백만명의노동자가실직
• 제조업에서해고된사람의 65%가 2006년 1월에재고용되었고 , 이들중 54%가이새로운직업에서더적은임금을받음.
• 서비스산업에서는 70%가 2006년 1월에재고용되었고, 이들중 52% 정도가새로운직업에서같거나더많은임금을받음.
Manufacturing and Services in the US
APPLICATION
17 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Manufacturing and Services in the US
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/disp.nr0.htm
Table 3-1 Job Losses in Manufacturing and Service Industries,
2003–2005
APPLICATION
18 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Manufacturing and Services in the US
• 미국제조업과서비스업예가주는교훈
1. 산업간임금은동일하지않다. 특정요소모형은단순화되었다.
2. 노동자들은다양한이유로실질 어떤사람들은수입급증으로해고되나, 대부분은
기술진보등의다른이유
3. 대부분의노동자들은 2-3년사이에새로운직업을찾으나, 임금은동일하지않음.
4. 실질임금은 1972–95 기간동안하락, 그이후에약간상승
APPLICATION
19 of 64© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs
• 정부가직장을찾고있거나혹은적당한시간에직업을찾지못하는노동자를보상해야하는가?
• 미국실업보험에서는해고이유에상관없이약간의보상금
• 게다가무역조정지원프로그램(Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs)에서는수입급증으로인해해고된사람들에게추가로실업보험수당을제공
• 또한 1993년이후에는북미자유무역협정(NAFTA) 체결로인한멕시코와캐나다에서의수입급증으로해고된노동자에대한특별한무역조정지원(TAA) 프로그램을시행
APPLICATION
20 of 64
Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs
© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
• 다른나라들도 TAA와같이무역으로피해를입은노동자를보상해주는프로그램을시행
• 아주흥미로운예는 1990년 6월 30일이루어진동독과서독의통일로인해발생
• 양국간에모든무역장벽, 그리고노동과자본의이동에제약을주는모든장애요인이제거
• 노동조합이동독과서독에서의동등한임금을지급할것을요구하여, 구동독에위치한기업들은그들이지급할수있는임금수준이상을지급해야상황에직면
APPLICATION
21 of 64
Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs
© 2008 Worth Publishers ▪ International Economics ▪ Feenstra/Taylor
• 심각한파산과실업이발생하여동독노동자가서독으로대규모이동예상
• 경제학자들은임금보조금을지급해서, 기업들이임금의일부만을부담하면서노동자를고용하도록유도해야한다고제안
• 만약임금보조금정책을시행하지않으면,대신대규모실업보험금을지불해야하기때문에, 임금보조금을지급하는것이이익이된다고주장
• 결국임금보조금정책은사용되지않았고, 동독의실업과서독으로의이민은통일독일의중요한정책적문제