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EARLY WARNING ANDEARLY RESPONSE SYSTEM
TRIMESTER REPORT JUNE-SEPTEMBER
DILI, DECEMBER 2009
In 2008, BELUN, in cooperation with Columbia University’s Center for International Conflict Resolution (CICR), established the Early Warning and Response System (EWER) in Timor-Leste. EWER is designed to increase early responses to conflict and prevent the escalation of violence at the national and community level.
The EWER system is generously supported by the Government of Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs through the Conflict Resolution Unit.
Cover photo by Jesse Wright, Taibesse Market, 26 April 2006.
Generously supported by the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs, Conflict Resolution Unit.
Executive Summary Incidents of violence have decreased considerably over this reporting period, down from 187 between February and May, to 139 between June and September. The sub‐district of Ainaro Vila produced the highest number of incidents, at 34, and was also the site of the only alleged murder among monitored sub‐districts over the trimester. This event appears to have been sparked by conflict over resource use (commonly reported around harvests in other rural areas, such as Tutuala and Letefoho). Youth violence remains an issue in Ainaro, and was also reported along with increased martial arts group activity in Bobonaro, Liquica, Aileu and Baucau. Drug or alcohol abuse was consistently reported at all of these sites, and gambling seems to be on the rise as well. Economic data over the monitoring period suggests little change since the last trimester, with prices for local goods remaining stable and only a slight drop in commercial activity. Job seeking and movement to urban areas in search of work continue to remain a challenge across the country, as in the past period. Whilst the continuing importance of agriculture to many Timorese communities continues to be reflected in a high rate of conflict over access to land and water, other livelihoods opportunities are emerging. Monitors reported a rise in infrastructure projects, and a rise in new businesses both among men and women, some apparently supported through microfinance, even as the benefits of (non‐Governmental) development assistance appear to be diminishing. Political divisions increased in advance of the suku level elections, with related tension reported over the period in Liquica, Ermera and Covalima. Interestingly, however, far lower levels of cronyism and bribery were reported, suggesting the attention brought by the electoral process may have produced a higher degree of accountability among local leadership. It may, however, also be the case that citizens are waiting to see if the councils deliver on promises once elected. Despite some reported confrontations in Metinaro and Same, on the whole, current data shows that community relations with the police and armed forces appear to be slowly improving. The issue of dispute resolution within monitored communities continues to raise questions. Data from the reporting period suggests both that fewer cases are being referred for settlement through adat/custom, and also that the outcomes of such processes are being increasingly contested. This does not necessarily mean that the formal justice system is shouldering more of the dispute resolution burden, and suggests that there is a sense that the more immediate local method is straining to meet demands. The confusion over how best to address community conflict is seen clearly in respect of sexual violence, which continues to be experienced at high levels. Data indicates that although on occasion sexual assault was referred to police, and slightly less frequently to traditional leaders, in most cases there was no clear intervention sought or imposed. Given that domestic abuse, chiefly against women but also against children, is consistently reported at every monitored location, a coordinated strategy of prevention and response is urgently needed.
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Introduction Since its founding over five years ago, BELUN has developed a strong reputation for its civil society strengthening and conflict prevention work. In partnership with Columbia University’s Center for International Conflict Resolution (CICR) and with the generous support of the Government of Ireland’s Conflict Resolution Unit, BELUN established the Early Warning and Early Response (EWER) system for monitoring and addressing conflict and tensions nationwide. The system is supported by a network of sub‐district‐based volunteer monitors who gather information relevant to the potential for civil unrest. At present, 13 target areas are monitored by the EWER system, one per district, representing a spread of urban and rural locales, all with a particular history of local conflict. This report represents a summary of the monitoring period from June to September 2009. It is hoped that the systematic review of local conditions over time will be used by Government, development partners and communities themselves, in order to address emerging concerns and reinforce local resources that promote peace. BELUN will contribute its peace‐strengthening expertise where needed in volatile locations and will continue to support monitoring to develop a more complete picture of community conflict dynamics. Initial comparisons have been made throughout this report with data from the first trimester. As data continues to be gathered, it is anticipated that over time a deeper analysis of the trends will be possible, enabling an increasingly more structured and systematic response to conflict. (See Annex A for details on the EWER methodology.) National Findings and Analysis Incidents of violence have decreased considerably over this reporting period, down from 187 between February and May, to 139 between June and September. As with previous results, however, much of the conflict is occurring privately ‐ 78 of the reported confrontations, more than half of the total, taking place in homes or otherwise on private property. Streets and markets were also the scene of various clashes, with 17 and 10 incidents, respectively. Troublingly, the collated data suggests a higher degree of escalation than has previously been registered. Verbal threats and intimidation were a feature of 91 of the incidents, with physical violence breaking out in 76 cases1. The degree of crossover suggests that confrontations were either intense or prolonged enough to develop into fighting. In the main, this occurred between individuals (56 incidents), with groups involved far less frequently (21). The overwhelming majority of violent clashes were unarmed, with rocks thrown on 12 reported occasions, and machetes drawn slightly more often, at 29 incidents. 1 Incidents typically involve more than one reported element, commonly escalating from threats and intimidation into physical violence. Such an incident will register under both of these headings, often resulting in a higher total than the actual count of incidents for the sub‐district.
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Subdistrict District Trimester 1 Incidents Trimester 2 Incidents /
Passabe Oecusse 50 17 Ainaro Vila Ainaro 31 34 Letefoho Ermera 18 3 Maliana Vila Bobonaro 13 7 Tutuala Lautem 12 5 Manatuto Vila Manatuto 12 11 Viqueque Vila Viqueque 10 3 Remexio Aileu 10 16 Liquica Vila Liquica 10 6 Metinaro Dili 8 22 Same Manufahi 7 10 Suai Covalima 6* 2 Vemasse Baucau ** 3 N/ATotal 187 139 *3 months data only ** data unavailable In line with previous data about the initiators of violent incidents, 61 of the incidents involved family members, with the next most common categories farmers, with 21 incidents, and neighbors, at 15. Youth violence appears to have diminished as an issue, with students instigating 8 clashes and martial arts groups implicated in only 6. Similarly, previous concerns over community relations with the police and armed forces may be on the wane, with F‐FDTL reportedly aggressors in 2 incidents (taking place around the IDP camp at Metinaro) and PNTL in only 2. Situation reporting also suggests that communities are far more at ease with PNTL and F‐FDTL patrols. Data about reported victims of violent incidents tallies closely in almost every regard, suggesting fairly discrete conflicts between the listed categories of participant.
Reported Victims of Violent Incidents by Social Category – National
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Reported Initiators of Violent Incidents by Social Category National
BELUN’s data under the EWER system has consistently shown that violence in Timor‐Leste is a highly gendered phenomenon, with 112 of the incidents in this last trimester involving men alone as aggressors. Men also bore the brunt of most incidents (104), with incidents initiated by women only remaining a small proportion of the total, at 11 (most occurring within the Ainaro Vila sub‐district). Initiators of Violent Incidents by Gender Victims of Violent Incidents by Gender
For all the fighting, the physical effect appears to have been fortunately limited, with serious injury reported 29 times, at less than a quarter of the total number of incidents. Property damage was also relatively uncommon, with only 12 reports. More commonly, those involved in or linked to the conflict fled, with 22 cases of individuals leaving the sub‐district in response to a reported confrontation. Regrettably, little data is available on these individuals and their destination, though EWER staff will increasingly investigate this at the local level.
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Response levels tell a consistent story compared to previous data, with the PNTL involved in responding to 45 incidents over this last trimester – nearly a third of the total. Local leadership was almost as effective, assisting on 36 occasions. Happily, there appear to be fewer clashes left unattended – figures show only 12 such matters were not followed by an external response. Economic data over the monitoring period suggests little change since the last trimester, with prices for local goods remaining stable and only a slight drop in commercial activity. Whilst levels are high, job seeking locally did not increase further, nor did the phenomenon of moving to urban areas for employment. Whilst the continuing importance of agriculture to many Timorese communities continues to be reflected in a high rate of conflict over access to land and water, other livelihoods opportunities are emerging. Data shows a rise in infrastructure projects across the country, and a rise in new businesses both among men and women, some supported through microfinance. Training programs are commonly available across most monitored areas, even as the benefit of non‐Governmental development assistance appears to be diminishing. Unsurprisingly over the period, levels of tension between political parties rose, and political divisions broadly within the community also increased in advance of the suku level elections. Interestingly, though, far lower levels of cronyism and bribery were reported, suggesting the attention brought by the electoral process may have produced some degree of accountability among local leadership. Whilst community relations with the police and armed forces appear to be slowly improving, the issue of dispute resolution within communities continues to be problematic. Data from this last trimester suggests both that fewer cases are being referred for settlement according to custom, and also that the outcome of such processes are being increasingly contested. This does not necessarily mean that the formal justice system is shouldering more of the dispute resolution burden, simply that there is a sense that the more immediate method is ceasing to be adequate. The confusion over how best to address community conflict is seen clearly in respect of sexual violence, which continues to be experienced at high levels across Timor‐Leste. Data indicates that in some instances sexual abuse and domestic violence are referred to police, and that slightly fewer cases are responded to by traditional leaders. That said, in most cases there was no clear response by any actor. Given that domestic abuse, predominantly against women but also against children, is reportedly very high at every monitored location, a co‐ordinated strategy and socialization of response options are urgently needed. Subdistrict Findings and Analysis Ainaro Vila, Ainaro Whilst incident rates are lower overall than the previous monitoring period, the number of incidents reported has remained high in Ainaro Vila. This total has, in fact, increased marginally from the February‐May figure of 31 to a total of 34 this
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trimester. In keeping with previous data, almost half of these occurred in family homes or on private property (16), though a significant proportion (5) took place in the public arena of the marketplace. Ainaro saw the only alleged murder occurring in a monitored location over the reporting period, where a dispute between farmers over straying cattle ended in a lethal attack with a spear. Though these results run counter to the national trend, they accord with localized UN Police crime statistics published over the period, and may reflect in part a continuing problem of tension between groups identifying with different religious institutions. This was noted as an emerging phenomenon in the last EWER report and investigated further in the recently published policy brief “Religious Identity and Conflict in Timor‐Leste.” Despite the relatively private nature of these events, it speaks to the closeness of living arrangements at this location that many of the incidents (16) were reported by nearby members of the community or observed by the BELUN monitors themselves (10). Reinforcing the domestic nature of the majority of these issues is the fact that family members were far and away the most commonly involved (19) in disputes, with clashes between farmers (5) and neighbours (3) also represented in significant numbers.
Although most (29) of the reported conflicts primarily involved verbal threats and intimidation, there is nonetheless a high rate of confrontations becoming physical. 13 incidents escalated from threats
into sustained fighting between individuals. Especially in light of the death mentioned above, it is of concern that access to weapons beyond bare hands is also reported at a higher rate than other sub‐districts, with machetes sighted (though not, apparently, employed to injurious effect) at 14 incidents. Men were involved in 26 incidents, women in a relatively high 7 (4 times as victims and 3 times as instigators). A counterpoint to these concerning figures can be found in both the impact of, and response to, reported tensions. Though 5 confrontations resulted in individuals fleeing the sub‐district, damage to stock and property was recorded in two cases only, and no other serious injuries have been reported. This leaves the conclusion that physical violence occurred at a fairly low level, and/or that its escalation was prevented by an external response. The latter possibility is made more credible by the high rates of community and official response. In two‐thirds of cases, community members intervened on the confrontation. Local leaders were involved in stopping violence in 12 incidents, followed by a police presence at 8. In only two cases was a cessation of violence not sought. This indicates a healthy degree of resilience,
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 29Fighting between individuals 13
Who responded to incidents? Community members 22 Local leaders 12 Police (PNTL) 8 No response 2
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with individuals evidently seeing peace‐building as part of a civic duty regardless of whether they hold that official role. In economic terms, the community continues to suffer, with responses related to the price and availability of local goods indicating a further drop from last trimester. The response to these circumstances, however, seems to have plateaued, with no reported increase in the numbers of residents relocating to the capital or other urban centers. Other areas of common spending, such as on gambling, and on traditional (especially marital) exchanges of goods, appear to have reduced, perhaps suggesting broadly that both discretionary and reserve expenditure has necessarily been curtailed. On a political level, activity has increased from the last monitoring period, likely in response to the then imminent suku level elections. There was a rise in the rate of infrastructure improvements, which may be connected. Conversely, though, fewer members of the community benefited from external development assistance, and responses indicate a diminishing number of civil society programs offering support or skills training. Regrettably, instances of sexual and/or domestic violence remain high (as they do across the country), and there is no indication of a community response to this, whether formal or informal. Metinaro, Dili A comparative rise in incidents against the last reporting period – 22, up from 8 – occurred between June and September in Metinaro. This coincides with the progressive closure of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp that has, for several years, dominated the social landscape there. Given uncertainty over the return to former communities and negotiations between camp residents and the Government over recovery package disbursements, the rise in confrontations is not unexpected. Eleven of the reported incidents took place in private homes or on private property, in keeping with previous results. Data shows conflict occurring between family members on 7 occasions, between farmers on 6 occasions and between neighbours on 3 more. Five more occurred between unaligned community members, and the final incident took place between political party members. With incidents predominantly occurring in and around the IDP camp, this set of results may point to the density of living in that area. Of further concern is the indication that F‐FDTL members were reported as aggressors in 2 cases, and PNTL members in another. The Metinaro camp is located close to an F‐FDTL base, and has long been a focal point for patrols. A higher proportion of women were involved in incidents than is common across districts – they were involved as instigators (together with men) in 9 of the total
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 18 Fighting between individuals 10 Fighting between groups 5
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22, suggesting that tensions within the sub‐district are not as heavily gendered as in other locations, and may run more consistently through the local population. The nature of the conflict suggests a tendency to escalation – verbal threats are still most common, being reported in 18 cases, but fist‐fighting between individuals took place in 10 instances, and fighting between groups in 5. Weapons were occasionally used, with two reports of machetes and two occasions of rock throwing. Fortunately, the associated injuries (at least in material, or physical, terms) have been relatively few. Reports suggest serious injury in 2 cases, and individuals fleeing the area in a further 2. Local leaders stepped in to resolve issues on 10 occasions, police were present only on 3 occasions, community members interceded 3 times and no engagement from local Government authorities took place in respect of 6 confrontations. This likely reflects the mandated presence of international agencies such as IOM, and of dialogue teams from the Ministry of Social Solidarity, whose roles encompassed peace‐building work in the area. Situation reports over the June through September period indicate considerable economic woes within the Metinaro community. Whilst rates of job‐seeking were static, commercial activity decreased and the price and availability of local goods also diminished. Inhabitants relied heavily on natural resources, with the burning off of land and trees being cut down. Conflict over land continued to increase within the densely populated area, and alcohol or drug related crime was reportedly on the rise. The lack of any notable change in service provision, livelihoods opportunities or political activity (even in the lead‐up to suku elections) suggests that intervention in this location had already reached its peak prior to this monitoring period. A decrease in recourse to traditional justice may represent a failure of this method to render accepted results; it may also simply represent the lack of a consensus among a diverse group. Tension continued to build over the monitoring period in respect of the nearby F‐FDTL presence, though martial arts group activity appeared low. Of continuing concern were reports identifying the existence of sexual abuse, and domestic violence against both women and children. With the closure of the Metinaro IDP camp, the conflict dynamics in the community may experience significant change. The next monitoring period should shed more light on the impact of the IDP camp on the social and economic conditions in the sub‐district. Passabe, Oecusse Previously the most troubled area monitored by BELUN, tensions in Passabe remain comparatively high, though the number of incidents reduced from 50 to 17. 14 of these were perpetrated by men alone. Men abore the brunt of 8 attacks,
Who responded to incidents? Local leaders 10 No response 6 Community members 3 Police (PNTL) 3
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women being victims in the remaining 9 incidents. Monitors report improved coordination with police, and among the community, with the establishment of an EWER‐supported local Conflict Prevention and Response Network (CPRN). In other respects, the pattern of incidents does not appear to have shifted significantly, with 10 taking place in private homes, and 8 involving family members. A further 4 took place between farmers, and 3 between neighbors. Whilst the ratio of these figures suggests proportionally high rates of domestic conflict, and disputes over land, as was identified over the last reporting period, the total suggests an overall reduction in the effect of these broader issues. The nature of the reported clashes continues from previous data to suggest relatively low levels of escalation. Verbal threats and intimidation were employed on 13 occasions, with fighting between individuals occurring in only 5 cases. Stones were thrown, and machetes brandished, on one occasion apiece. As a result, injuries were reported in 2 cases; theft and property damage claimed in a further 2 cases. There is only one instance of an individual fleeing the sub‐district as a result of the conflict, though a general rise in tensions is noted. Cases of individuals fleeing identified from this report and from ongoing data collection through the EWER system, will be brought to the local Conflict Prevention and Response Networks for enquiry and discussion. It is anticipated a greater understanding of the issue may lead to identification of targeted response options.2
Given the remoteness of this area, instances of official intervention in disputes continue to be few. Local leaders were reported to have stepped in on 3 occasions, but the police are known to have been present at one only. As previously reported, a high proportion of confrontations appear to have been
settled by the intervention of other community members (9 times, over this trimester period) and in a further 5 instances, no formal resolution took place. Whilst this pattern of response suggests that Passabe, as a community, is used to a certain degree of self‐regulation, it also hints at issues that may not be fully or adequately addressed. As previously, monitoring indicates both a high level of reliance on traditional dispute resolution methods, and also a high level of conflict over such decision‐making. Sexual violence cases were not consistently referred to traditional processes, with no mention of other avenues used.
2 Conflict Prevention and Response Networks (CPRNs) have been established in each of the monitored sub‐districts to discuss EWER findings and to develop community response plans to address conflict factors before they are able to escalate into outright violence. CPRNs involve both male and female government representatives and a wide range of civil society organizations present in the sub‐district.
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 13 Fighting between individuals 5
Who responded to incidents? Community members 9Police (PNTL) 1Local leaders 3No response 5
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Economic concerns continue to be central to community tensions in Passabe, with prices for local goods dropping, food security becoming a greater issue for many, and commerce diminishing in response to these factors. The exodus of young women, and particularly young men, continues as they seek work of a more structured kind. Whilst spending on gambling appears to have slowed –possibly indicating a lack of discretionary funds – there is evidence to suggest familial or partisan connections are more often being exploited for financial gain. Adding to the picture of a community searching for improved living conditions and livelihoods, the clearing of land and cutting down of trees continues to increase, as do conflicts between neighbors, often over property and access to land and water for farming. Natural disasters such as unseasonable storms and landslides continue to affect Passabe, putting further pressure on resources. Rumours about different political, familial and religious sectors of the population increased, with monitors indicating a likely connection to the impending vote. On the positive side, respondents noted an increase over the monitoring period in respect of training and capacity development exercises, for both men and women, and were broadly optimistic about new livelihoods opportunities, such as those provided through microfinance. Political activity increased in this trimester, likely in advance of the coming suku elections. Given a disproportionately wide range of candidates, respondents unsurprisingly report more events at which they were able to meet and talk with the aspiring representatives. Remexio, Aileu The sub‐district of Remexio, not far from Dili, experienced a rise in incidents against the previous trimester, with figures climbing from 10 to 16. As observed earlier in the year, confrontations in this area do not follow the pattern of verbal posturing followed by assaults that is common at other locations. Here, physical attacks are just as common as threats or intimidation. Fighting broke out on 9 occasions, 4 involving clashes between groups. Weapons were rarely used, but machetes were sighted at 2 incidents. Again atypically, much of the conflict in Remexio appears to occur in the public domain, with only 4 incidents taking place on private property. Although conflicts were most commonly between family members (7 incidents), students were involved in a further 5, with the other clashes identified as occurring between neighbors. This pattern suggests a high rate of tension among youth in the area. Figures showing women were involved as aggressors in only one of the reported events indicates also that this is a highly gendered problem. Reports suggest several of these attacks are directly linked to the use of alcohol or drugs.
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 8 Fighting between individuals 5 Fighting between groups 4
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As might be expected from the high degree of escalation, the impact of these confrontations has been primarily physical. Eight (8) injuries were reported among men, and 1 among women. Individuals are known to have fled on 2 occasions. Police response was relatively high,
at 6 incidents, and local leaders intervened 5 times. Almost as often (4), though, confrontations were left to find their own resolution, with other community members involving themselves to end the violence only once. The economic situation in Remexio appears to be one of stasis. Whilst there are few reports of food shortages, prices for local goods, and levels of subsequent commerce, remain low. There are fewer individuals leaving the area to find work, and there seem to be a steady number receiving training locally. A boost to employment in the area appears to coincide with recent infrastructure improvements. Conversely, the number of those benefiting from development programming has dropped considerably, perhaps due to decreased NGO activity. Manatuto Vila, Manatuto As identified in the previous trimester report, incidents in Manatuto Vila are more commonly linked to earlier disputes than at other locations (5 incidents), and occur most often in the home environment (10). Though these features remain, there are other, more positive trends. The number of incidents has diminished slightly against the last monitoring period, from 12 to 11, and there appears to be less escalation. Whereas conflict between February and May often bypassed the typical precursors of verbal threats and intimidation, this monitoring period has seen a reversal, with the overwhelming majority (7) of conflicts halted without physical assault. Machetes were drawn only once. This pattern of conflict, as well as its repetition, may be linked to comparatively high levels of reported drug or alcohol abuse. Notably, although women were not witnessed to be among the aggessors in incident reporting, the recipients of threats and occasional violence were typically groups comprising both men and women (6 incidents). As expected given the decline in physical attacks, only 1 injury was recorded, and no individuals were reported to have fled.
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 6Local leaders 5Community members 1No response 4
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 7 Fighting between individuals 3 Fighting between groups 1
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This reduced escalation of conflict may be related to a strong response from both police and local leaders, who intervened on 8 and 5 occasions, respectively. This indicates a reaction not only from security forces but also from the
community itself. On one reported occasion, the incident was concluded with independent support from community members. Unusually, compared to other monitored locations, every dispute was reported to have produced a resolution of some kind. Though this is promising, the rate of recidivism suggests such outcomes must be more enduring if violence is to be further reduced. In most economic respects, Manatuto Vila appears stable, with no significant change recorded in respect of food security, commercial activity or jobseeking. Whilst disputes continue over natural resources, these appear to be occurring less frequently, and less often to violent effect. Support to the community here appears to be on the rise, with training activities increasing over the period, and a boost to infrastructure spending locally. Livelihoods opportunities were reported to have increased, although more so for women than for men. Divisive rumours decreased, and meetings between officials, and between martial arts groups, took place more regularly. With the marked exception of domestic violence, which remains a frequent occurrence, community resilience and integration appear stronger over the trimester. Same, Manufahi Same continued its pattern of rapidly escalating public violence, though no murders have been reported in the monitored area since April. Reported incidents rose from 7 last trimester to 10, with 6 of these occurring roadside or at other public locations. Unusually across monitored locations, there were more instances of physical violence (8) than threats and intimidation only (5). In particular, fighting between groups was high, being a feature of 4 of the confrontations. Though machetes were drawn on 1 occasion, weapons use was relatively low, limited to 2 further instances of stone throwing. These incidents were almost entirely male‐dominated, with women involved in only one as an aggressor and in two as victims. Whilst 4 of the disputes involved family members, a further 4 involved community members with no categorized relationship, suggesting that the tensions causing these outbreaks of violence go further than the typical conflict between neighbours or farmers competing over resources (such disputes appear, in fact, to be in decline). A clear tie to earlier conflicts was noted by monitors in 3 of the cases, indicating perhaps that the causes have not been sufficiently addressed. Regrettably, dialogue and peace‐building efforts have
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 5 Fighting between individuals 4 Fighting between groups 4
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 8Local leaders 5Community members 1
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declined over the period. Part of the escalation occurring here may reflect a loss of confidence in traditional dispute resolution, with very high indications that although this has been a common recourse, resolutions sought through this method seem not to be sustained over time.
Unsurprisingly, given the seemingly rapid escalation of these incidents, injuries have been relatively common, being reported in 6 of the 10 cases – all to male victims. Perhaps due to the public forum in which many of these confrontations
are taking place, property damage has been minimal. Notably, the PNTL presence was comparatively high, with their intervention ending 5 incidents. Their involvement has been contentious, with witnesses claiming police members as the aggressors on 2 occasions and respondents indicating a degree of wariness in the community in respect of their patrols. Some community members went as far as to indicate a perception that human rights violations have taken place, though no evidence is currently available to substantiate this claim. Whilst commercial activity is down in the area, food security at least appears stable. Whilst training and development programs are active, there seems, nonetheless, to be a large movement among youth, with very high rates of job‐seeking and many young men and women leaving Manufahi entirely. Respondents were equivocal about new livelihoods opportunities. At the same time, the number of local residents benefiting from (non‐Governmental) development programming appears to be diminishing significantly. Maliana Vila, Bobonaro Outward conflict has declined in Maliana Vila against the previous trimester, with 7 incidents reported between June and September, down substantially from thirteen. Those confrontations that did take place over the most recent monitoring period followed the previously established pattern, with rapid escalation to physical attacks and little verbal warning. Threats and intimidation were a feature of only 2 incidents, whereas fighting between groups accounted for 4, with one (1) fight occurring between individuals producing the remaining report. Most disputes took place roadside or around the market – previously identified as a trouble spot. Stones were thrown on 3 occasions and machetes drawn once. The group dynamic that appears to be behind much of this tension is reinforced by classifications of those involved. As is common across monitored areas, women were involved in only a minority of incidents – twice as aggressors (along with men) and 3 times as victims.
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 5Community members 1No response 4
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 2 Fighting between groups 4 Fighting between individuals 1
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Whilst there were, among those drawn into conflict over the period, family members (2 incidents) and neighbours (3 incidents) as expected, most had no direct relationship identified by our monitors. Reports of increased martial arts group antagonism are likely connected, and some conflicts may relate to tension between (predominantly male) youth from different religious congregations, as has previously been observed here. Peace‐building efforts are reportedly few.
The rapid escalation of many of these attacks is matched by the effect – 4 of the 7 incidents resulted in injury (3 to men and 1 to a woman), and at least 2 people are known to have fled. The police,
however, appear to be intervening more regularly, appearing at the scene on 5 occasions. Interestingly, locally stationed F‐FDTL forces intervened on 1 occasion as well. The involvement of armed forces has been less than popular among many residents, leading to general claims of human rights violation, though no evidence has, to date, been forthcoming to support this perception. Local leaders appear to be taking a less active role, involving themselves in only 1 matter. Whilst Maliana Vila appears stable on most economic indicators, there seems nonetheless to be a certain restlessness among local youth. Drug or alcohol abuse are reportedly high. Despite improved access to training and other educational programs, and sustained levels of development support, young people, both male and female, continue to leave the area. New infrastructure programs are commencing, as are new livelihoods opportunities. This exodus may, therefore, suggest that opportunities are still not sufficient and/or that non‐economic factors are a significant motivator. The status of women in Maliana has, unfortunately, not improved over the trimester, with reports of abuse against women (and children) still common, and a consistently reported presence of prostitution. According to monitors, a high proportion of sexual violence cases are now brought to the attention of police, though the majority are dealt with by other means, including traditional justice. This method of dispute resolution, however, is being seriously tested, with high levels of dissatisfaction at its outcomes reported. Liquica Vila, Liquica Incidents in Liquica Vila are down substantially against the previous trimester’s results – 6 incidents between June and September, an improvement on 10 incidents as reported between February and May. Most of these incidents (4) occurred on private property, and between family members (4). Some martial arts, and youth involvement was also noted, on two occasions.
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 5Armed forces (F‐FDTL) 1Local leaders 1
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 5 Fighting between groups 1
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Incidents appear to have been male‐dominated (women were reportedly involved as instigators only once) and confined to verbal threats and intimidation (5), but fighting broke out between groups once, with stones thrown on one occasion and machetes drawn at a separate event. Property destruction was proportionally high, recorded 3 times. Links with previous conflict were reported in 4 instances.
The impact of these conflicts appears to have gone beyond the immediately physical, with 2 injuries reported (both to men) and property damage also indicated 3 times. Both men and women were reported to have fled the sub‐district on 4 occasions. Whilst the police were
able to intervene on 3 of the confrontations, 2 received no intervention at all. Furthermore, there is no evidence of local leadership being involved in responding to the reported disputes. In respect of most economic factors, Liquica’s situation appears stable. Prices for local goods remain steady, job‐seeking figures have not changed, and commerce continues without interruption. Conflict over land continues, and recourse to traditional dispute resolution is common, though there appears to be a growing concern about its efficacy that is adding to existing tensions. The impending suku elections may have stirred up some resentment, as exemplified by responses indicating increased political divisions in the area. Partisan activity unsurprisingly rose over the period, and rumours about various groups within the community increased in frequency. Such activity is especially notable given the absence of dispute resolution support from local leadership. Reports note high levels of domestic violence in Liquica Vila, reportedly perpetrated not only by men against women but also by women against men. Children were also noted to be at particular risk. Sexual violence was also deemed a regular occurrence, though monitors indicate a general lack of coordinated response. The tendency within this community appears to be not to take any action at all. This unfortunate state of affairs would appear to present a clear opportunity for leadership and awareness‐raising. Tutuala, Lautem Within the easternmost district, 5 incidents (all involving men only) were reported in Tutuala over the monitoring period, these being predominantly limited to verbal confrontation (3 incidents). Fighting broke out between individuals twice, with reports of stones thrown and machetes brandished on 1 occasion apiece.
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 3Community members 1No response 2
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 3 Fighting between groups 2
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Unsurprisingly for such a rural environment, 3 of the conflicts occurred between neighbours and/or farmers, the other 2 occurring between family members. Whilst no injuries were reported in respect of these incidents, two individuals are known to have fled the sub‐district as a result. Low levels of official involvement mark the responses to these conflicts, with local leadership involved only once, and the remainder left to find their own conclusion. No police intervention was recorded, notable given the increased emphasis on PNTL ‘community policing’ in the district.
Economic strain may be at least partly behind some of the conflict occurring in Tutuala, as food security is reported to be an issue, and local goods apparently fetching less at market. Monitors indicate that
access to training programs within Tutuala remains at previous levels, but that new livelihoods opportunities have decreased. No new infrastructure projects were reported, and development assistance is reaching fewer local inhabitants. Interestingly given the timeframe, respondents note no significant increase in political activity, or partisan divisions in the community. No social effect at all can be determined from information gathered over the period, in respect of the coming suku elections. This may suggest low levels of awareness, or perhaps a degree of inertia around local leadership as suggested by the limited range of candidates (many of them incumbents). Vemasse, Baucau As no incident data was retrieved from the rural sub‐district of Vemasse over the previous trimester period due to monitor turnover, no pattern can yet be established in respect of conflict tendencies in this community. Tensions do appear relatively low, however, with only 3 incidents reported. Conflict appears to be a very private occurrence at this location, with all of the reported incidents taking place in the domestic environment. Threats and intimidation were registered on 1 occasion, with physical violence ensuing twice. Stones were thrown once. Unusually given the private nature of these events, martial arts groups were reportedly implicated in two of the attacks, with a dispute between farmers accounting for the last. All reported incidents involved men only. Injuries resulted from 2 of the incidents, with police attending 1, local leaders stepping in on another and the remaining incident reaching its own conclusion. From situation reports, Vemasse gives the impression of being a relatively stable community. Its economic situation does not appear to have changed significantly
Who responded to incidents? Local leaders 1No response 4
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 1 Fighting between individuals 2
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against figures from the previous trimester. Few concerns were raised over the price of local goods or the availability of food. Commerce continues at similar levels and few young people seem to be leaving for work elsewhere.
Monitors noted a rise in the number of young, unemployed men on the streets, and in gambling. Fewer training and livelihoods opportunities are reported, and the number of those benefiting from development program support is declining. Meanwhile, there is increased contest for resources. Clearing of land and the cutting down of trees are increasing, as are tensions around access to water and farming areas. Whilst recourse to traditional dispute methods is cited frequently, respondents indicated anxiety over the suitability of this method. This is particularly pertinent to instances of domestic abuse and sexual assault (both indicated as common occurrences here, even against children), where police have a legal mandate to address the issue. Viqueque Vila, Viqueque Incidents of violence in Viqueque Vila dropped over the last four months from the previous figure of 10, down to 3. Given the area’s history of recurrent violence, this is a remarkable improvement also reflected in available crime statistics for Viqueque, and perhaps in part due to concerted peace‐building efforts over the reporting period. Conflict was mostly within private homes, and each of the incidents involved a physical attack, with threats and intimidation a feature in only 1 case. Stones and machetes were witnessed only once. Fitting a common pattern, the disputes were, in 2 cases, between family members and between neighbours in the other. Unusually, one of the aggressors is alleged to have been female. Only one injury (to a male victim) was reported out of all of the incidents, and no property damage was registered. Police were a
regular presence, responding to 2 of the 3 events, with local leaders dispatching in 1 instance. Food security, and other economic measures, appear stable over the
trimester. Unusually, conflicts over land are reported to be minimal, and clearing of land has slowed. Whilst development programs are reportedly withdrawing, training and education opportunities have been maintained (though not increased) and access to healthcare is up against previous figures. Despite this, young men and women are continuing to leave Viqueque Vila in search of work elsewhere.
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 1Local leaders 1No response 1
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 1 Fighting between individuals 3
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 2Local leaders 1
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Reflecting data from elsewhere across the country, sexual violence in Viqueque is reportedly high, and responses are quite arbitrary. Some matters are referred to police and, equally, some referred to traditional dispute resolution. As in other locations, there is a pressing need for awareness‐raising as well as increased support for survivors of gender‐based crimes. Letefoho, Ermera A dramatic reduction is evident in incidents in Letefoho this trimester. Whilst the area was third highest on those figures (at 18) from February to May, only 3 incidents (involving women once as aggressors, and once as victims) were recorded between June and September. Two occurred in the public domain, and the same number involved verbal threats and intimidation. Physical assault was reported to have occurred only once. As previously noted in this region, destruction of property was the most common outcome, with stones thrown in 1 case, and no injuries reported.
The classification of those involved suggests a continued, though much reduced, problem with youth violence. Martial arts group members and students were indicated to have been involved in 2 incidents, a dispute among farmers
causing the other. Responses were typical, with police intervening on 1 occasion and local leaders another, the remaining clash reaching its own resolution. Given that this monitoring timeframe covered the coffee harvest in Ermera, there is unsurprisingly evidence of conflict over land and, particularly, over access to water. This appears to have been exacerbated by unfavourable climatic conditions (monitors noted unseasonal storm activity affecting some crops) that likely jeopardized many livelihoods. This trimester, with its lead‐up to the suku elections, also reveals a rise in divisions along political lines, and a commensurate increase in partisan activity. Interest in local leadership may also reflect a declining benefit from aid programs and a subsequent need to source assistance through governmental channels. Official service provision does appear to be improving, with reports of increased access to both healthcare and education in the area. Violence against women and children was recorded consistently over the period, showing little change from the previous trimester’s data. As elsewhere, crimes of this nature are referred to traditional authorities despite reports that matters brought for resolution to the adat process often remain unresolved, and that there are increasingly conflicts associated with this mechanism itself. With this informal system under strain, there is all the more need for justice sector intervention, targeting sexual assault and domestic violence.
Types of violence, by incidents Threats/intimidation 2 Fighting between individuals 1
Who responded to incidents? Police (PNTL) 1Local leaders 1No response 1
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Suai, Covalima As detailed in the Annex A methodology section, Suai monitors have relied heavily on the suku chief in sourcing and validating information on incidents of violence. This resulted in two reported incidents only, which is likely an artificially low figure, even given the comparatively low report of 6 incidents last trimester. Both incidents took place in private homes. One is understood to have arisen between male representatives of different political parties, the other associated with a natural resource management dispute. Both physical assaults were unarmed, and resulted in an injury to 1 of the parties. Police members responded on both occasions, as indicated in their own reports. Situation monitoring does, however, tell us that this community is facing especially difficult economic circumstances. Food security is waning, and the price of local goods is slipping as well. Youth, both male and female, are leaving in hopes of employment outside the sub‐district, and new opportunities for income are few. Reports also indicate a decrease in the sense of security provided by the local police presence. Recourse to traditional dispute resolution, however, is uncharacteristically low, compared to other monitored locations. Perhaps given the then imminent suku elections, political tensions were reported to be running high in the area, and reportedly responsible for dividing the community. Conversely, peace‐building activities were few, and there were no reports of joint activities between political parties. There is, however, no evidence of this sparking violence in Suai. Trends Over Time
Total Reported Violent Incidents National
Comparison against the previous trimester’s figures show a considerable overall reduction in reports of violent incidents. This trend, however, was not experienced in Ainaro, where youth and gang violence continues to be an issue of concern. Such a broadly‐observed decrease, however, may suggest that climatic or natural cycles play a part in contributing to community tension – populations in various sub‐districts were, during this time, busy with their harvests.
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Incident reports were remarkably stable over the period, with the exception of a substantial, cross‐country rise over August. To some degree, this may be attributed to the closure of the Metinaro IDP camp. Situation reporting revealed a decline in some economic factors, with many sub‐district reports indicating a decrease in food security and a reduction in the price of local goods. The exodus of young people from the districts in search of employment continues, slowing slightly. There is cause for optimism, however, in the suggestion that access to education and to healthcare are improving, despite the gradual withdrawal of (non‐Governmental) development support. The suku level elections did not take place within this monitoring period, though this event’s approach can be seen in situation reporting that reflected a rise in tensions between political party representatives, and a deepening of partisan rivalries within the populace. Only a few isolated incidents were reported as election‐related. Data from this point on, including the election itself and beyond, will be included in the next trimester report. This being only the second such report, only limited comparisons can be made, and trends identified. This ability will be improved as the EWER system continues to gather and analyze data. Recommendations In addition to making available an analysis of sub‐district level monitoring data, the EWER system is designed to promote and encourage early responses to conflict factors. It is anticipated that responses may be necessary at the national level, an that the State, civil society and international development partners may use the EWER reports to inform policy development and to modify programming as necessary to address or respond to tensions. Many initiatives, however, can be implemented at the sub‐district level by those most immediately impacted by the threat of, or actual existence of violence. BELUN and CICR are prepared to support individual agencies and institutions to convene around issues emerging in this Trimester Report. While not a comprehensive list, the suggestions below provide a starting point for consideration. Civil Society/Local Authorities • Given the consistent reporting of people fleeing their sub‐district due to
conflict, there is a clear role for CPRNs to examine these cases, determine if these individuals are returning, and develop targeted response options.
• Martial arts group activity continues to be of concern in communities across the country. Addressing this without escalation will likely require a concerted effort from both local officials and civil society representatives. The leadership of groups whose members are engaged in conflict at the sub‐distirct level, may organize joint visits to these out‐posts and socialize the non‐violent values of the larger organizations.
• Ainaro, as the evident ‘hot spot’ identified from this trimester’s monitoring, will require a more nuanced conflict analysis, notably in respect of its growing problem of conflict related to religious identity. The local religious leaders can host an inter‐faith dialogue and seek to develop an accord that includes future dispute resolution strategies.
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• Aileu, Bobonaro, Liquica and Baucau all reported a common set of phenomena: youth violence, drug and/or alcohol abuse and a rise in gambling. Awareness raising on the dangers of drug and alcohol abuse may be useful as could local support to improve livelihood opportunities and positive social engagement in these areas.
National Government/State
• At present, monitoring reveals a significant increase in infrastructure projects at the sub‐district level. At the same time, ecomonic activity remains mostly static in the areas currently monitored by EWER. Given the evidence of continuing economic distress, especially in rural communities, Government policy may want to consider the impact of resource distribution and the enduring effects of infrastructure improvement and other investment. Similarly, reflection on resource allocation processes is suggested to prevent such tensions from emerging.
• The drafting and socialization of titling/land provisions will doubtless make a significant impact on reports of conflict over natural resources. This process will need to be comprehensively publicized.
• Monitoring suggests that there is a positive increase in access to health and education services in many communities. To advance this, added support, possibly through mobile clinics at the aldeia level is suggested.
International Development Partners
• Consistent reporting of a decrease in aid recipients across monitored areas may warrant a broad discussion among donors (and non‐Government implementers), possibly through the Small Grant Donor Network chaired by BELUN and CICR, to consider whether reallocation or reprioritisation of funds may be warranted.
InterAgency (State, NonState and/or International partners) Response • Clear, well‐established referral pathways for survivors of sexual and
domestic violence are required to reinforce and link police and service providers, as well as organizations providing information such as local officials and civil society networks (including the CPRNs). SEPI can take the lead in collaboration with its partners to publicize widely the referral pathways, identify gaps in service delivery and prioritize areas of focus.
• The Ministry of Justice and its international partners may wish to meet and discuss findings related to apparent dissatisfaction around the use of traditional justice, which may be used to inform policy setting in this area.
BELUN
• Through its EWER system network, BELUN will facilitate the creation and implementation of Community Response Plans via CPRNs. These will contain community‐led response options to issues identified through monitoring.
• BELUN will also endeavor to convene the national and international agencies mentioned above, as appropriate, in order to discuss report findings and to identify possible response options.
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Conclusion The results of this trimester’s monitoring give reason for cautious optimism, with violent conflict reported at lower levels across nearly the entire country. One particular success story over the reporting period can be found in the community reaction to police and armed forces. Whilst previously such a presence appeared to raise tensions, and PNTL and F‐FDTL personnel were reportedly involved in numerous violent clashes, this phenomenon has all but disappeared. This bodes well for the PNTL emphasis on ‘community policing’. Ainaro, the primary hot spot this trimester, stands out primarily since its incident figures do not show the reduction of other districts over the reporting period. The issues of youth violence that affect this community are, it seems, not affected by reported socio‐economic factors, and are not being fully addressed. The effect of the Metinaro IDP camp closure in Dili, producing a rise in confrontations, can fortunately be considered a one‐off event. However, the effect of drugs and alcohol are not exclusively linked to the IDP population and will require a concerted response from officials and community leaders. Passabe, in Oecusse, appears to be confronting its history of violence to positive effect, reducing its incident count to 17 over this trimester, from 50 in the last report. Monitors indicate that this is, at least in part, due to improved coordination with police, and among the community itself. Land conflicts, reportedly concentrated in border areas, continue to merit official attention. Aileu, Bobonaro, Liquica and Baucau all reported a common set of phenomena: youth violence, increased martial arts group activity, drug and/or alcohol abuse and a rise in gambling. Unemployment in these areas may accordingly require targeted Governmental intervention, perhaps coupled with dialogue activities. Customary dispute resolution was reportedly problematic across all monitored sites, but was particularly of concern in Manufahi, where monitors noted higher numbers of both unresolved cases and conflicts over the outcome of customary process. A similar trend was apparent in Manatuto, where this discontent is likely connected to a rise in the recurrence of previous conflicts. This may signal a need for a better‐resourced security presence in these districts. Conflicts over land and water access continue to be a major factor in conflict, and will likely be all the more sensitive for the impending debate on land titling. Lastly, domestic and sexual violence remain a regular occurrence at monitored locations, and responses vary greatly. This suggests a wide range of opinions about appropriate action and highlights the need for information on the agreed response procedures for such cases. It is often the case that there is no response sought by either survivors of abuse and/or by those aware of the violence. There is an urgent need for the development of broad prevention strategies and basic health, police and legal services for survivors of such violence across communities.
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Annex A: Methodology During the first year of monitoring under the EWER system, BELUN has recruited twenty‐six monitors– two (typically male and female) for each of the targeted sub‐districts. Monitors are all volunteers and established members of these communities, with many in a pre‐existing civil society position. Monitors receive ongoing conflict analysis and transformation training, and are directly supported by BELUN’s five regional coordinators. Gaps in data collection may occur as a result of monitor turnover, as occurred over the first trimester, affecting results from Vemasse in Baucau. In this reporting period, new monitors have consistently provided data for inclusion. More recently, other obstacles to effective monitoring have become apparent. Monitors in Suai, Covalima, for example, have encountered some resistance from their host community and are consequently reliant on the suku chief’s support in order to gather and verify information about local conditions and particularly incidents of violence. Accordingly, the data may bear some further scrutiny. BELUN engages, through its management and regional networks, with local partners to investigate and reinforce, as necessary, relationships with local authorities. EWER staff are also currently working to support monitors in Suai, and elsewhere, to establish and maintain links with a range of official and civil society sources in order to ensure a broader spectrum of data collection. Monitoring has been undertaken largely through an observation, rather than investigation, model using local networks of contacts and understanding of community dynamics to inform their responses. Reporting occurs in two forms – one capturing incidents of violence (extending from threats and intimidation to property destruction and physical harm) and the other examining a range of social, economic, political and external factors linked to community tension. Peace and development activities are also captured in monitor reports. Given the observational nature and broad objectives of the monitoring, the EWER system facilitates appropriate referral pathways to address issues such as gender‐based violence rather than providing direct response to individual incidents. The monitoring system has been constructed following a comprehensive study of early warning mechanisms in other countries, and seeks to limit the subjectivity of responses, gathering information on incidents of violence and visible changes within communities that allows for comparative analysis across regions, themes and periods of time. When reporting an incident, monitors are asked to select from a list of possible actors, respondents, methods and impacts (among other measures) to describe the event. A minimum of two sources are required to confirm an incident, preventing the reporting of rumors. Situation reports are partly in a yes/no format and require an indication of whether an indicator has increased, decreased, stayed the same or is unknown.
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Incident reports are collected weekly and situation reports monthly. Data is verified by reference to other local and national information where possible, and entered into a National Peace and Conflict Database. Incident features are tallied and ranked for analysis and particular events referred for action. Indicators from the situation reports are scored for their conflict potential – the existence of a natural disaster, for example, may increase local pressures. A rise in the price of household goods may similarly raise tensions. This allows for a broader sense of whether the situation in target communities is improving or worsening.
