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Early Warning Systems GradNa3on Summit – April 28, 2014
Presenters • Joanna Hornig Fox, Deputy Director, Everyone Graduates Center
• Susan Therriault, Principal Researcher, American Ins3tute of
Research
• Kay Warfield, Educa3on Administrator, Alabama State Department of Educa3on
• Linda Filley-‐Bentler, Program Manager, Puget Sound Educa3onal Service District
• Ayeola Fortune, Director, Educa3on Team, United Way Worldwide
Introduc-on to EWS • Basic, non-‐nego3able elements of success • Customizable elements • Biggest opportuni3es • Biggest challenges and steps to overcome • Realis3c 3metables • Partners • Concrete recommenda3ons
Components of an EWS • A belief in the power of data in reform • Strategies -‐-‐ indicators, interven3ons, monitoring and modifica3ons
• Enabling technology • Organiza3onal infrastructure for delivery, planning, use and reflec3on
• Resources – personnel and the community
EWS History I
• On and off-‐track indicators: 2005, Bal3more, Chicago, and Philadelphia
• 6th and 9th grade • Development of the suppor3ng technology – starts, stops and restarts
• Enabled by individual student iden3fiers
Early Warning Indicators of Student Disengagement
A_endance
Behavior
Course Performance
Student Disengagement
B A
B C
Off-‐ and On Track Indicators • Exact thresholds differ by study, grade and loca-on. Generally: • AJendance: Missing school more than 10 percent of the 3me, or 20
days; an almost linear rela3onship between 9th grade a_endance and likelihood of gradua3on (absent interven3ons); also a recent emphasis on chronic absenteeism
• Behavior: Receiving poor behavior marks (minor infrac3ons) – or more than one suspension (major infrac3on); dispropor3onali3es in African Americans receiving poor behavior marks
• Course passing/credit accrual: Receiving an F in English and/or mathema3cs; receiving two or more F’s in any subject
• Students with C-‐/D+ averages are as likely to dropout as to graduate
• Students with A/B averages and good a_endance likely to graduate
EWS History II • Implementa3on in various states and large districts, some3mes first piloted in low-‐performing districts/schools
• Educators working alone and in teams –dashboards and dialogue leading to ac3on
• Development of a structure for implementa3on – training and coaching
Premise of Early Warning Systems
Be Promoted
A_endance
Behavior
Course Passing
EWS History III • Gegng beyond indicators to interven3ons • Concept of 3ered interven3ons • Targe3ng interven3ons • Adding collaborators and partners • Scaling up
External and Internal Collaborators
AJendance, behavior and course passing
improves Promo-on and
Gradua-on Rate rises
Contacts and Resources • For more informa3on, contact Joanna Fox, Deputy Director,
Everyone Graduates Center, School of Educa3on, Johns Hopkins University, [email protected]
• Visit publica3ons by the Everyone Graduates Center and partners, at h_p://www.every1graduates.org, including On Track for Success; Learning What it Takes; Mee7ng the Challenge of Comba7ng Chronic Absenteeism; and Early Interven7ons Drive Gradua7on Success
• Visit publica3ons by UChicago Consor3um on Chicago School Research, h_p://www. ccsr.uchicago.edu/ (including those by researchers Allensworth, Easton and Nagaoka)
Early Warning Systems
This work is funded by the U.S. Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences (IES) under contract ED-IES-12-C-0004, by REL Midwest, administered by American Institutes for Research. The content of this presentation is based on products developed under the National High School Center funded by U.S. Department of Education Grant S283B050028. The content does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of IES or the U.S. Department of Education, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the U.S. government.
Lessons Learned from Mul3ple Years of Implementa3on Efforts
Early warning systems (EWS) rely on readily available data housed at the school to: • Predict which students are at-risk for dropping out
of high school. • Target resources to support off-track students while
they are still in school, before they drop out. • Examine patterns and identify school climate
issues.
Early Warning System
AIR’s Early Warning System • Used in over 100 districts in
12 states • Downloaded 20,000+ 3mes • Opera3onalizes an Early
Warning System Implementa3on and Monitoring process
• Enhanced EWS Tool features and format over 3me
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Iden3fying students at-‐risk
Early Warning Indicators • Three key components: • Outcome measures – future milestone events such as high school
gradua3on • Indicators – capture student’s academic performance, behavior
and engagement and are used to iden3fy which students may be at risk of missing a key outcome measure. They are validated through analysis
• Thresholds, or cut points – values at which an indicator predicts that a student is likely or not likely to meet the predefined outcome measure
EWIMS IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
Moving from Iden3fica3on to Ac3on
Early Warning Interven-on and Monitoring System (EWIMS) • Developed by the Na3onal High School Center under a contract
funded by the U.S. Department of Educa3on • Uses readily available data to iden3fy students at risk for dropping
out, assign students to the appropriate interven3on, and monitor their response to the interven3on to support their success in school
• School implementa3on is supported through: – EWS Tool – EWIMS – Professional development
EWIMS Seven-‐Step Process
EWIMS Tool Func3onality and features of the EWS Tool:
• Customize the tool segngs to reflect the local context
• Import student-‐level data from exis3ng data systems
• House an inventory of dropout preven3on interven3ons available to students
• Assign and monitor student interven3ons over 3me
• Produce reports, including student-‐ and school-‐level
LESSONS LEARNED Based on Years of Experience
Lessons Learned “Early warning systems can be implemented by schools alone, but districts and states play important roles in suppor3ng and increasing the efforts.”
School Lessons • Empower Ac3on Through Effec3ve Leadership
• Beware of Overwhelming Staff • Take a Whole-‐Student, Whole-‐School Approach
District Lessons • Empower Schools • Iden3fy and Address District-‐wide Needs • Streamline Access to Data
State Lessons • Help Districts and Schools Define and Validate Indicators
• Develop Customized Supports
• Develop Customized Supports
EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EWS
Next Steps
On-‐Time Gradua-on Project Goal Evaluate whether schools that implement
the Early Warning Interven3on and Monitoring System (EWIMS) have improved student and school outcomes compared with schools that do not use EWIMS.
On-‐Time Gradua-on Project • Evaluate student-‐level outcomes
– Student risk status for dropout – Scores on gradua3on tests – Persistence and progress in school – Likelihood of on-‐3me gradua3on
• Examine school-‐level outcomes – Data-‐informed alloca3on of dropout preven3on interven3on
resources – School data culture
Ques-ons?
Resources Heppen, J. B., & Therriault, S. B. (2008). Developing early warning systems to iden3fy poten3al high school dropouts. Washington, DC: Na3onal High School Center. Available at: h_p://www.earlywarningsystems.org/wp-‐content/uploads/documents/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystemsGuide.pdf. O’Cummings, M, & Therriault S. (in press). Early Warning Systems: Lessons Learned from the Six Years of Suppor3ng Implementa3on. Washington, DC: American Ins3tutes for Research. Therriault, S., Heppen, J., O’Cummings, M., Fryer, A., & Johnson, A. (2010). Early warning system implementa7on guide. Washington, DC: Na3onal High School Center, U.S Department of Educa3on. Available at: www.earlywarningsystems.org. Addi3onal tools and guides are available at www.earlywarningsystems.org
*Susan can be contacted at 781-‐373-‐7007 or [email protected].
Interven-on & Preven-on A school-‐level perspec3ve on EWS
STAGES OF CHANGE q INITIATION Involves the proposal of new ideas, mobiliza3on of energy, and the choice to begin the change q IMPLEMENTATION
Means pugng new ideas, ac3vi3es, or programs into prac3ce
q INSTITUTIONALIZATION Means stabilizing and con3nuing the newly implemented change
AREAS OF CONCERN
• A_endance
• Behavior
• Course Performance
Six-‐Step Implementa-on Process Step 1 Using the
GTS Tool
Step 2 Identifying
Team Members
Step 3 Reviewing and
Interpreting the Data
Step 4 Aligning
Resources
Step 5 Monitoring
Interventions
Step 6 Evaluating and
Refining the Process
Using the GTS
Drill Down
Drill Down
IDENTIFY THE TEAM
LEA REPRESENTATIVE, ADMINISTATOR, TEACHERS, COUNSELORS, SOCIAL WORKER
PROMOTION COACH
PROMOTION COACHES WEAR MANY HATS
Role Models Consultants and Advocates
Teachers and Coaches Mentors and Tutors
Organizers of the Promo-on Team Data collectors and synthesizers
• Gradua3on Tracking System Pre-‐K to 12 (use of data)
• Community Ac3on: Linking Leaders (Public Awareness)
• Student Harassment/Awareness
• Gradua3on Team (Coach, Counselor, Social Worker, etc.)
• The Parent Project (Volunteers) • Posi3ve Behavior Supports (PBS)
Preven3on (Universal)
Interven3on (Target and Align Students with Best Prac3ces/Opportuni3es for Success
• Innova3ve Pathways • Credit Recovery • “Teens as Parents or
MOMs on Maternity” (PASS)
• Personalized Educa3on Plan
• Student Exit Interview
• Proposed Code of Conduct Guide
• Career Clusters Dual Enrollment
• College Access Challenge Grant
• Tutoring • The Parent Project
• Gradua3on Centers • ECEP • Community Agencies/
Service Collabora3ve • Gradua3on Team • CHAMPS with PBS • Algebra I Interven3on
Recovery (Individual) 1:1 Mentor/Professional Resource
Re-‐entry Program
Gradua3on Center
Social/Behavioral Interven-on Ini-a-ves for Student Success
ATTENDANCE AWARDS Monthly, Bi-‐monthly, Weekly
CLASS RECOGNITION
REPORT CARD CONFERENCES COURSE PERFORMANCE
AJendance, Behavior, Course Performance
Student of the Month November 2013
In recogni7on of outstanding aFendance,
behavior, and course performance
_______________ Student’s Name
_________, Teacher __________, Principal
COURSE PERFORMANCE RECOGNITION
ALL NINTH GRADERS 2012-‐2013
Cornerstones of Student Success
§ AJendance § Behavior § Course Performance
AGI, LEA, PROMOTION COACH, ADMINISTRATORS, TEACHERS, STUDENTS
We are the��� links of the ��� Alabama Graduation Initiative��� learning��� chain.
THE TIME IS NOW
PLAN 2020 The 3me is now to increase the number of students gradua3ng high school that are college-‐career-‐ready and prepared to be successful in our global society.
The Power of “I” Leadership Poem I WILL DO MORE
I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something.
And what I can do, I ought to do. And what I ought to do, by the grace of God, I will do.
I will do more than belong… I will par3cipate. I will do more than care… I will help.
I will do more than believe… I will prac3ce. I will do more than be fair… I will be kind. I will do more than dream… I will work. I will do more than teach... I will inspire. I will do more than earn… I will enrich. I will do more than give… I will serve. I will do more than live… I will grow. I will do more than talk… I will act.
I will be more than good… I will be good for something.
Anonymous
HOW…? Reduce the number of unexcused absences…? Reduce the number of disciplinary infrac-ons…? Reduce the number of ninth grade failures…?
“Not everything that counts can be measured, and not everything that can be measured, counts.” Albert Einstein
Albert Einstein
Road Map Project A Collec3ve Ac3on Approach to Early Warning Systems
The Road Map Project Goal is to double the number of students in South King County and South Sea_le who are on track to graduate from college or earn a career creden3al by 2020.
Road Map Region Sta-s-cs • Seven School Districts: Auburn, Highline, Federal Way, Kent, Renton, Sea_le, Tukwila. 119,375 students represen3ng 11% of WA State.
• 74% of students graduated on 3me and lower for students of color: Hispanic (46 %), American Indian (50 %), Mul7-‐Racial (63%) and Black (64 %) Focus on closing the opportunity gap.
• 16% of Road Map students are ELLs and 50% of ELLs graduated on 3me
• 46% of SPED students graduated on 3me
• 20% of students switched schools and of this group, almost three quarters transferred between districts.
PSESD: Success for each child and close the opportunity gap
Phase One: 2012-‐2013 • Inventory of Road Map districts current EWS status
• Literature Review of EWS research with special focus areas: ELL, special educa3on, mobility, family engagement
• Regional agreement on Collec3ve Indicators for ABC’s
• Framework for Interven3ons
• Convening to highlight EWIS best prac3ces for interven3ons
Collec-ve Ac-on Approach Collective Indicators • 5 – 10 absences (excused or unexcused) and
one course failure in 8th or 9th grade
• Single suspension/expulsion in 8th or 9th grade
Repository http://psesd.org/road-map-early-warning
BehaviorAttendance CoursePerformance
Alternatives to Suspension/Expulsion
Early Warning Indicator Framework for Intervention
Visual Reports & PlanningIntegrated Data System Training & Expectations for Use
Intensive Intervention
Prevention
Foundation
Intervention
Family Communication Teacher/StudentRelationship TPEP
EWIS Definitions/Thresholds MOU Mobility
Discipline Alignment Attendance AlignmentGrading Alignment
Universal Supports
IntensiveWraparound
Extended Learning Opportunities Coordinated Interventions
Targeted AcademicIntervention
Mentoring/StructuredMeetings
Change of School Transitions (6th/8th/9th)
Reengagement
1:1Tutoring
Credit Retrieval
SPED Coordination ELL Coordination
!
Early Warning Indicator #1
SOURC
E: OSPI stude
nt-‐le
vel database
NOTE: Exclude
s Sea_le, for which data were no
t available.
Early Warning Indicator #2
SOURC
E: OSPI stude
nt-‐le
vel database
Phase Two: 2013-‐2015 • Ac3on Team Mee3ngs for regional coordina3on
• Baseline Data on Collec3ve Indicators • EWIS Ac3on Plans Coaching/PD offered individually and
collec3vely
• Development in three areas: EWIS Design, Staff Training or Interven3on Design/Alignment
• Convening to learn best prac3ces for implementa3ons, share with other PSESD districts and partners
Lessons Learned • Power of Collec3ve Ac3on for EWS • Balance between Common and Tailoring • Compe33ve and Suppor3ve • Align and strengthen partnerships with community agencies, civic groups, etc.
• Complicated but worth it
Project Resources PSESD Early Warning Systems: http://psesd.org/road-map-early-warning
Road Map Project http://www.roadmapproject.org
For more informa3on: Linda Filley Bentler at [email protected]
United Way Performance Challenge
United Way Performance Challenge – Early Warning and Response Systems (EWRS)
• As a result of performance driven partnerships between Local United Ways (LUWs), Community Based Organiza3ons, School Districts, and Schools by the end of the 2015-‐ 2016 school year, 30 low performing schools are able to iden3fy 100% of students in grades 6-‐9 exhibi3ng the Early Warning Indicators; and by the end of the 2016-‐2017 school year iden3fied students will achieve be_er a_endance, behavior, and course competencies by matching 85% of those students to appropriate, effec3ve, and integrated school and community supports.
• By 2018 the Compact will scale the EWRS prac3ces (6th-‐9th grades) across the United Way system to reach 10 percent of low performing high schools and engage 113* United Ways, which will also increase Resources Under Management (RUM), awareness and engagement. Our inten3on is that this framework involves mul3ple implementa3on pathways recognizing that schools, community, and local UWs have different capaci3es, assets, and resources.
• Dr. Balfanz’s research says indicators: A_endance is 10 or more absences per year, 1 suspension and/or 2 behavioral referrals, and a F in Math, English and/or 2 other courses.
• Based on data from the 2013 Grad Na3on report, 10% of the total number of low-‐performing high schools equals 142 schools. The actual number of schools may change in following years as new data is released.
• 113 represents 10% of United Ways in the United States that have at least one low-‐performing high school in their community AND have the capacity to develop and implement this approach as measured by the Business Performance Matrix.
Early Warning and Response Systems Compact Members
• Heart of Florida United Way • Valley of Sun United Way • UW of Greater Philadelphia & Southern
New Jersey • United Way of Central Jersey • United Way of Central Massachusetts • United Way of Greenville County • United Way of Greater Portland (Maine) • United Way of Greater Cleveland • United Way of Greater Chattanooga • United Way Worldwide
Develop
Compact Strategies • The Compact will develop the early warning systems and support (EWRS)
framework, toolkit, technical assistance and related capacity for scaling within our Compact and the UW network.
• By the end of the 2015-‐2016 school year the EWRS compact will implement the early warning and response (match) framework in 30 low performing schools.
• By 2018, we will Scale and Sustain the implementa3on of the early warning and
support system framework within our Compacts and 113 other local United Ways, and evaluate network performance
Implement
Scale and Sustain
United Way Worldwide’s Role • Provide a research-‐based strategy framework
(e.g. Educa7on Research Overview; Char7ng the Course)
• Support and scale performance-‐based partnerships(e.g. EWRS Compact)
• Build & invest in local United Way capacity(e.g. Middle Grades Success Challenge – providing grants, technical assistance, learning communi3es, tools/resources)
• Leverage na-onal rela-onships & partnerships(e.g. Civic Enterprises, Johns Hopkins Everyone Graduates Center, MSM Coali3on)
• Advocacy and policy development(e.g. UWW policy agenda)
• Provide na-onal visibility for efforts
Five Essen-al Components of EWRS Component #1 Timely IDENTIFICATION of students who are off the path to gradua7on using the following Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) data: aFendance (tardiness and absences), behavior (classroom referrals, suspensions, expulsions), and course performance (grades). Component #2 Regularly scheduled, frequent teacher, educa7onal support staff, administrator, and community partner. REVIEW, DISCUSSION and ANALYIS of student EWIs data (e.g. weekly grade level mee7ngs). Component #3 Use of EWIs data to MATCH students to 7mely, appropriate and effec7ve school and community-‐based supports and interven7ons that are targeted to students’ immediate and longer-‐term need for support. Frequent MONITORING of the success of supports and interven7ons and modifica7on of interven7ons that are not working.
Component #4 A TIERED SYSTEM OF SUPPORTS -‐ Which includes individual student level , classroom , and school-‐wide I interven7ons.
Component #5 School and community PERFORMANCE-‐BASED PARTNERSHIPS to share student data; match students to 7mely school and community-‐based supports; monitor, track and evaluate outcomes; foster con7nuous improvement; and create shared accountability.
Community Role in Suppor-ng Early Warning and Response Systems • Advocacy for district and state systems • Funding for early warning systems technology,
professional development, technical assistance, etc. • Advocacy and best prac3ce demonstra3on for data
sharing between schools and CBOs • Advocacy and highligh3ng best prac3ces of CBOs using
early warning data and prac3ces to provide effec3ve supports
• Mapping exis3ng community resources and iden3fying gaps
• Advocacy/support for integrated school interven3ons inclusive of community resources
• Delivering on quality supports/services that are outcomes-‐focused
• Community awareness building and engagement • Evalua3on and sharing results
Addi-onal Resources and Contact Informa-on • Guide to Iden-fying School Feeder PaJerns.
h_p://unway.3cdn.net/8ad86c683e72534fd1_3km6vzo9e.pdf. Developed by United Way Worldwide, in collabora3on with Johns Hopkins & Civic Enterprises
• Char-ng a Course for Change -‐ United Way Worldwide Na-onal Roadmaps in Educa-on. h_p://unway.3cdn.net/ea3f8667b2a4bad0e2_0gm6yxly7.pdf
• For addi3onal ques3ons or to learn more, contact Ayeola Fortune, ([email protected])
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