Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application to the Philippines

8/12/2019 Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application to the Philippines

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HD@I Vormief ^hpkr Zkriks

Dyehaij ovkrtyDkjoapositioe Hehcysis<He Hppcijhtioe to tbk ^bicippieks

Toaomi Gulii

Eo. 477Gk`ruhry 0>84

Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem Iestitutk



Tbk Vormief ^hpkr skriks is h joetieuhtioe og tbk gorakrcy ehakd Disjussioe ^hpkr skriks=tbk eua`krief og tbk phpkrs joetieukd witbout ietkrruptioe or jbhefk. HD@I’s wormiefphpkrs rkgckjt ieitihc idkhs oe h topij hed hrk postkd oeciek gor disjussioe. HD@I kejourhfksrkhdkrs to post tbkir joaakets oe tbk ahie phfk gor khjb wormief phpkr (fivke ie tbkjithtioe `kcow). Zoak wormief phpkrs ahy dkvkcop ieto otbkr goras og pu`cijhtioe.

Zuffkstkd jithtioe<

Gulii, T. 0>84. Dyehaij ôvkrty Dkjoapositioe Hehcysis< He Hppcijhtioe to tbk ^bicippieks. HD@I Vormief ^hpkr 477. Tomyo< Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem Iestitutk. Hvhich`ck<bttp<//www.hdì.orf/wormief-phpkr/0>84/>0/06/7828.dyehaij.povkrty.dkjoapositioe.hehcysis.pb/

^ckhsk joethjt tbk hutbor gor iegorahtioe hòut tbis phpkr.

K-ahic< tguliiNsau.kdu.sf

Toaomi Gulii is he hssojihtk progkssor og tbk Zjbooc og Kjoeoaijs og ZiefhporkAhehfkaket [eivkrsity.

Tbk hutbor frkhtcy `kekgitkd groa uskguc hed kejourhfief joaakets groa Ahshbimo

Homi, Zhtyh P. Jbhmrhvhrty, Moijbi Bhahdh, Hcahs Bksbahti, Zkiro Ito, VkkrhjbhrtMicketboef, Thmhsbi Muroshmi, Ksghedihr Ahhsouai, Yhsuyumi Zhwhdh, Hù Zboejboy,Lhjquks Zic`kr, \bhef Lipkef, hed phrtijiphets og tbk 0>80 Hsihe Akktief og tbkKjoeoaktrij Zojikty, tbk 9tb Heeuhc Joegkrkejk oe Kjoeoaij Frowtb hedDkvkcopaket, hed rkskhrjb skaiehrs hed wormsbops bkcd ht tbk Hsihe Dkvkcopaket@hem Iestitutk (HD@I), IDK-LKTPO, Eheyhef Tkjbeocofijhc [eivkrsity, ZiefhporkAhehfkaket [eivkrsity, hed Zofhef [eivkrsity. Ru Zilih providkd rkskhrjb hssisthejk.

Tbk vikws kxprksskd ie tbis phpkr hrk tbk vikws og tbk hutbor hed do eot ekjksshricyrkgckjt tbk vikws or pocijiks og HD@I, tbk HD@, its @ohrd og Dirkjtors, or tbk fovkreaketstbky rkprksket. HD@I doks eot fuhrhetkk tbk hjjurhjy og tbk dhth iejcudkd ie tbis phpkrhed hjjkpts eo rkspoesiìcity gor hey joeskqukejks og tbkir usk. Tkraieocofy uskd ahyeot ekjksshricy `k joesistket witb HD@ oggijihc tkras.

Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem IestitutkMhsuaifhskmi @uicdief 2G

:-0-; Mhsuaifhskmi, Jbiyodh-muTomyo 8>>-7>>2, Lhphe

Tkc< +28-:-:;9:-;;>>Ghx< +28-:-:;9:-;;68[PC< www.hdì.orfK-ahic< iegoNhdì.orf

© 0>84 Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem Iestitutk



HD@I Vormief ^hpkr 477 Gulii

H`strhjt

Ie tbis phpkr, wk proposk h ekw aktbod og povkrty dkjoapositioe. Our aktbod rkakdikstbk sbortjoaiefs og kxistief aktbods hed bhs soak dksirh`ck propkrtiks sujb hs tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy hed su`pkriod hdditivity. It ietkfrhtks tbk kxistief aktbods og frowtb-rkdistriùtioe dkjoapositioe hed skjtor-`hskd dkjoapositioe, `kjhusk it hccows us todkjoaposk tbk jbhefk ie povkrty ieto frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekets gor khjb froup(k.f., rkfioes or skjtors) ie tbk kjoeoay. Vk kxtked our aktbod to iejcudk six joapoeketshed providk he kapirijhc hppcijhtioe to tbk ^bicippieks gor tbk pkriod 892; ‚0>>9.

LKC Jchssigijhtioe< I:0, O8>




Joetkets

8. Ietrodujtioe ................................................................................................................ : 0. Aktbodocofy .............................................................................................................. 4

0.8 Eothtioes hed Kxistief Aktbods ..................................................................... 4 0.0 Ekw Aktbod og Dyehaij ôvkrty Dkjoapositioe ........................................... 2 0.: ôvkrty Phtk Dkjoapositioe uedkr Ciekhr Hpproxiahtioe ............................. 9 0.4 ôvkrty Phtk Dkjoapositioe uedkr Cof-Ciekhr Hpproxiahtioe .................... 88 0.; Poùstekss Jbkjm witb h Zpkkd og Jbhefk ^hrhaktkr ............................... 8: 0.7 Kxtkesioe to Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe ........................................................... 8: 0.6 Zoak Iapckakethtioe Issuks ....................................................................... 8;

:. Dhth hed ôvkrty Akhsurkaket .............................................................................. 87 4. Pksucts .................................................................................................................... 86 ;. Disjussioe ............................................................................................................... 0: Pkgkrkejks ......................................................................................................................... 07 Hppkedix ............................................................................................................................. 02

H. Dkthics og Dhth hed ôvkrty Akhsurkaket .......................................................... 02 @. ^roogs og ^ropositioes ......................................................................................... 09 J. Tkjbeijhc Hppkedix gor Gooteotk 88 .................................................................... :8 D. Hdditioehc Th`cks ................................................................................................. :8




:

8. IETPOD[JTIOE

ôvkrty sthtistijs hrk tbk aost `hsij pikjk og iegorahtioe gor hsskssief tbk povkrty situhtioeog h jouetry hed gor gorauchtief hetipovkrty pocijiks. Vitb `rohdkr rkjofeitioe og tbkir

iaporthejk, tbk hvhichìcity og povkrty sthtistijs bhs sifeigijhetcy iaprovkd ovkr tbk chst 4dkjhdks. Tbk Vorcd @hem’s Civief Zthedhrds Akhsurkaket Ztudy (CZAZ) wk`sitk hcoek cists:2 jouetriks witb bouskbocd survkys,8 hed ahey otbkr jouetriks eot ie tbk cist hcso routiekcyjoedujt survkys hed pu`cisb ehtioehc povkrty sthtistijs witbout aujb kxtkrehc hssisthejk.

Tbk quhcity og povkrty sthtistijs bhs hcso iaprovkd witb tbk hjjuauchtioe og meowckdfk hedkxpkrikejk. @kttkr survky dksifes bhvk bkcpkd ahmk tbk akhsurkaket og sthedhrds og civiefaork hjjurhtk hed aork rkhdicy joaphrh`ck hjross rkfioes, witbie h jouetry, hed ovkrykhrs. Hs h rksuct, wk bhvk h `kttkr uedkrsthedief og tbk progick og tbk poor hed its trhesitioeovkr tiak.

Bowkvkr, ie tbk sthedhrd povkrty progick hpprohjb, it is ogtke uejckhr wbht bhs jhuskd tbko`skrvkd jbhefk ie povkrty. Hddief to tbis pro`cka, tbk aktbodocofy uskd to dkrivk ehtioehc

povkrty sthtistijs is eot hcwhys ueigora, ahmief tbk povkrty sthtistijs iejoaphrh`ck hjrossrkfioes or ovkr tiak. To hddrkss tbksk issuks, wk oggkr h ekw aktbodocofy og povkrtydkjoapositioe ie tbis phpkr.0

Our aktbod is bifbcy gckxi`ck hed hccows us to dkjoaposk tbk povkrty jbhefk ieto skvkrhcjoapoekets (k.f., frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekets) gor khjb rkfioe or khjb skjtor ie hjouetry ie h jobkrket aheekr. Zujb dkjoapositioe is uskguc gor jboosief tbk hpproprihtkpocijiks to gifbt povkrty. Gor kxhapck, ie rkfioes wbkrk kjoeoaij frowtb is pro-poor ùtscow, pocijiks to kebhejk rkfioehc kjoeoaij frowtb (k.f., ievkstaket ie iegrhstrujturk) ahy`k he hpproprihtk povkrty rkdujtioe pocijy. Oe tbk otbkr bhed, ie rkfioes witb bifb ùt heti-poor kjoeoaij frowtb, distriùtioe-iaprovief pocijiks (k.f., jhsb trhesgkrs) ahy `k aorkhpproprihtk. Our aktbod is khsy to iapckaket, kspkjihccy wbke h skt og siapcigyief (ùt

rkhsoeh`ck) hssuaptioes hrk ahdk. Our aktbod produjks h ekht dkjoapositioe rksuct tbhtdoks eot bhvk he ietkrhjtioe tkra or rksiduhc, wbijb is diggijuct to ietkrprkt. Gurtbkr, hsdisjusskd ie skjtioe 0, it shtisgiks two dksirh`ck propkrtiks og tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy hedsu`pkriod hdditivity uecimk tbk kxistief dkjoapositioe aktbods.

Vk hppcy our aktbod to tbk ^bicippieks gor tbrkk rkhsoes. Girst, tbk povkrty rkdujtioeprojkss ie tbk ^bicippieks bhs `kke scowkr tbhe tbht og aost otbkr jouetriks ie Zoutbkhst Hsih. It is tbkrkgork uskguc to idketigy tbk sourjks og scow profrkss ie tbk ^bicippieks. To tbisked, wk dkjoaposk tbk povkrty jbhefk ie khjb rkfioe ie tbk ^bicippieks ieto sixjoapoekets< popuchtioe sbigt (^Z), witbie-rkfioe rkdistriùtioe (VP), `ktwkke-rkfioerkdistriùtioe (@P), eoaiehc frowtb (EF), iegchtioe (IG), hed aktbodocofijhc jbhefk (AJ). Ourdkjoapositioe sbows tbht aost og tbk povkrty rkdujtioe hjbikvkd `y eoaiehc frowtb is oggskt`y iegchtioe hed worskeief distriùtioe witbie khjb rkfioe wbke wk coom ht ovkrhcc povkrtyjbhefk ie tbk ^bicippieks. Our rkfioehc dishffrkfhtioe rksucts sbow tbht tbk sourjks ogpovkrty jbhefk hrk bktkrofkekous hjross rkfioes hed tbus tbk suith`ck povkrty rkdujtioepocijiks hcso vhry hjross rkfioes. Gor kxhapck, wk gied tbht frowtb-kebhejief pocijiks hrkdksirh`ck gor povkrty rkdujtioe ie tbk Hutoeoaous Pkfioe ie Auscia Aiedheho (HPAA),wbkrkhs distriùtioe-iaprovief pocijiks hrk hcso iaporthet ie Pkfioe WIII (Khstkre Wishyhs).

Zkjoed, tbk oggijihc povkrty sthtistijs ie tbk ^bicippieks hrk jhcjuchtkd witb povkrty cieks tbhthrk spkjigij to h rkfioe or h proviejk. Tbkrkgork, tbk jbhefks ie tbk ehtioehc sthtistijs rkgckjt

8 Zkk bttp<//fo.worcd`hem.orf/^DB\GX\7C> (hjjksskd 8 Ojto`kr 0>8:).

0 Bkrk, wk hrk joejkrekd witb tbk jhsk wbkrk tbk rkgkrkejk sthedhrds og civief ht tbk povkrty ciek hrk eot

joaphrh`ck hjross tiak. Bowkvkr, iejoaphrhìcity jhe ojjur gor otbkr rkhsoes, sujb hs tbk vhrihtioes iesurvky dksife ovkr tiak. Zkk, gor kxhapck, Chelouw hed Chelouw (0>>8). Dkhtoe hed Mozkc (0>>;) providk heovkrvikw og tbk rkchtkd dk`htk ie Iedih.




4

eot oecy tbk rkhc jbhefks ie povkrty ùt hcso tbk supkrgijihc jbhefks duk to tbk why oggijihcpovkrty cieks hrk hdlustkd ovkr tiak. @y hppcyief our aktbod to tbk ^bicippieks, wk jheskphrhtk tbk supkrgijihc jbhefks groa tbk o`skrvkd jbhefks. Vk gied tbht tbk scow profrkssie tbk rkdujtioe og oggijihc povkrty ie tbk ^bicippieks is phrtcy drivke `y tbk supkrgijihc jbhefksduk to tbk jbhefk ie aktbodocofy.

Giehccy, tbk ^bicippieks bhs jocckjtkd bouskbocd iejoak dhth oejk kvkry : ykhrs siejk 892;.Tbis hccows us to skk tbk povkrty jbhefk ovkr h rkchtivkcy coef pkriod og tiak. Tbkrkgork, it ispossi`ck to skk wbktbkr tbk drivief gorjk og povkrty jbhefk bhs hctkrkd ovkr tiak. Vk giedtbht worskeief distriùtioe skvkrkcy jrippckd tbk profrkss ie povkrty rkdujtioe ie tbk twopkriods 8922 ‚8998 hed 8994 ‚8996. Ie otbkr ykhrs, tbk scow profrkss ie povkrty rkdujtioewhs ahiecy kxpchiekd `y tbk chjm og bifb rkhc kjoeoaij frowtb.

Tbis phpkr is orfheizkd hs goccows. Ie tbk ekxt skjtioe, wk `rikgcy rkvikw kxistiefaktbodocofiks og povkrty dkjoapositioe hed dkvkcop h ekw aktbod og dyehaij povkrtydkjoapositioe. Ie skjtioe :, wk dksjri`k tbk dhth hed disjuss soak akhsurkaket issuks. Ieskjtioe 4, wk prksket tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts ie tbk ^bicippieks. Zkjtioe ; providks soakdisjussioe.

0. AKTBODOCOFY

Ie tbis skjtioe, wk dkvkcop h ekw aktbod og dyehaij povkrty dkjoapositioe. To bifbcifbt tbkeovkcty og our aktbod, wk girst ietrodujk tbk eothtioes hed rkvikw tbk kxistief aktbods. Vktbke prksket our fkekrhc dkjoapositioe aktbod. Tbis aktbod rkquirks tbht wk meow tbk phtbog tbk jbhefks ie tbk joapoekets og ietkrkst (k.f., akhe hed distriùtioe og iejoak).Bowkvkr, tbis rkquirkaket is typijhccy eot gucgicckd ie h prhjtijhc hppcijhtioe. Tbkrkgork, wk wiccjoesidkr two skts og hssuaptioes tbht hccow us to iapckaket tbk aktbod ie h strhifbtgorwhrdaheekr.

Ie skjtioe 0.:, wk joesidkr h siapck ciekhr hpproxiahtioe, ie wbijb tbk rkchtivk povkrty ciek(povkrty ciek rkchtivk to tbk akhe iejoak) hed tbk juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioe og tbkrkchtivk iejoak (iedividuhc iejoak rkchtivk to tbk akhe iejoak) jbhefk ciekhrcy. Tbishssuaptioe ckhds to h vkry siapck kxprkssioe wbke tbk povkrty akhsurk og ietkrkst is tbkpovkrty rhtk.

Ie skjtioe 0.4, wk joesidkr h cof-ciekhr hpproxiahtioe hs he hctkrehtivk to tbk siapck ciekhrhpproxiahtioe. Vk usk h ciekhr hpproxiahtioe gor tbk cofhritbaij rkchtivk povkrty ciek heddistriùtioe og tbk cofhritbaij rkchtivk iejoak. Tbis hpprohjb hcso bhs soak httrhjtioes hs itbhs soak joeekjtioes witb pro-poor frowtb citkrhturk. Vitb kitbkr tbk ciekhr or cof-ciekhrhssuaptioe, tbk povkrty dkjoapositioe jhe `k iapckaketkd khsicy. Vk tbke vhry tbk spkkdog jbhefk ie tbk akhe iejoak rkchtivk to tbht og tbk iejoak distriùtioe to jbkjm tbkroùstekss og tbk ciekhr hpproxiahtioe.

Ie skjtioe 0.7, wk joesidkr he kxtkesioe og tbk aktbod witb six joapoekets. Khjbjoapoeket jhe `k gurtbkr dividkd `y froups sujb hs rkfioes or skjtors. Tbis kxtkesioe bkcpsrkskhrjbkrs hed pocijy ahmkrs dkjidk wbht povkrty rkdujtioe pocijiks hrk suith`ck gor khjbfroup. Giehccy, wk disjuss soak iapckakethtioe issuks.

0.8 Eothtioes hed Kxistief Aktbods

Vk hssuak tbht tbk iedividuhc-ckvkc povkrty akhsurk is dktkraiekd `y tbk iedividuhc iejoakhed povkrty ciek. Tbk eoaiehc iejoak pkr jhpith bhs h positivk iegiaua,: wbijb is dkeotkd`y , hed tbk iejoak distriùtioe ht tiak gor tbk popuchtioe og ietkrkst is fivke `y tbk

: Gor aost og our disjussioe, wk oecy rkquirk tbht tbk eoaiehc iejoak is eoe-ekfhtivk. ôsitivk iegiaua is oecy

ekjksshry ie skjtioe 0.4.






7

Tbk purposk og povkrty dkjoapositioe is to httriùtk tbk hjtuhc povkrty jbhefk to tbk joapoekets og ietkrkst, sujb hs tbk frowtb hed rkdistriùtioejoapoekets. Gorahccy, wk dkgiek povkrty dkjoapositioe hs goccows<

Dkgieitioe 8. Ckt J `k tbk iedkx skt gor tbk joapoekets og ietkrkst hed `k tbk

joetriùtioe og joapoeket to tbk povkrty jbhefk. Tbk phir {

} is jhcckd h povkrty dkjoapositioe gor tbk povkrty jbhefk `ktwkke hed wbke ∘ .

Oek og tbk aost popuchr dkjoapositioe aktbods whs proposkd `y Dhtt hed Phvhccioe(8990), wbijb bhs `kke uskd ie h eua`kr og studiks, iejcudief Phvhccioe hed Buppi (8998),Froothkrt (899;), hed Zhbe hed Ztigkc (0>>>). Tbk Dhtt ‚Phvhccioe (DP) dkjoapositioe uskstbk ieitihc tiak poiet hs tbk rkgkrkejk tiak poiet. Ie tbkir study, tbk povkrty ciek, , is gixkd.

Tbkrkgork, tbk jbhefk ie tbk rkchtivk povkrty ciek, z , is drivke oecy `y tbk jbhefk ie akheiejoak (i.k., frowtb). @y gixief kitbkr tbk rkchtivk povkrty ciek or rkchtivk iejoak distriùtioehed ckttief tbk otbkr jbhefk, wk jhe dkjoaposk tbk povkrty jbhefk ieto tbk frowtb

joapoeket hed rkdistriùtioe joapoeket ie tbk goccowief aheekr witb tbk eothtioes

ietrodujkd hòvk<4

8 >> >> 8

> >8 >> 8

> 8 > 8 > 8 > 8

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

FP

DP

PD

DP

PZ FP PD

DP DP DP

A t t A A z z G G

A t t A A z z G G

A t t A t t A t t A t t

,

wbkrk hed gor { } hrk tbk (rkchtivk) iejoak distriùtioe hedpovkrty ciek ht tiak , rkspkjtivkcy.

Tbk rksiduhc tkra jhpturks tbk povkrty jbhefk eot kxpchiekd `y tbk frowtb hed

rkdistriùtioe joapoekets. It jhpturks tbk ietkrhjtioe `ktwkke frowtb hed rkdistriùtioejoapoekets hed jhe `k ietkrprktkd hs tbk diggkrkejk `ktwkke tbk frowtb ]rkdistriùtioeQ

joapoekets kvhcuhtkd uedkr tbk tkraiehc hed ieitihc rkchtivk iejoak distriùtioes ]akheiejoaksQ (Dhtt hed Phvhccioe 8990).

Vbick skttief tbk rkgkrkejk tiak poiet ht tbk ieitihc poiet is h ehturhc jboijk, tbk prkskejk ogtbk rksiduhc tkra uedkraieks tbk uskgucekss og tbk dkjoapositioe hehcysis. Tbis isphrtijuchrcy truk wbke tbk rksiduhc tkra is chrfk ie h`socutk vhcuk. Hs @hyk (0>>7) hrfuks,meowckdfk og bow aujb og o`skrvkd jbhefks ie povkrty hrk duk to jbhefks ie tbkrkdistriùtioe hs distiefuisbkd groa frowtb ie hvkrhfk iejoaks is jritijhc gor pu`cij pocijy heddk`htk. Tbus, ig aost og tbk povkrty jbhefk is iekxpcijh`ck, tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts do eotfivk aujb uskguc iegorahtioe to tbk pocijy ahmkrs.

Vk jhe khsicy hvoid tbis pro`cka ig wk hrk wiccief to hssuak tbht tbk jbhefk ie akhe iejoakhed distriùtioe ojjurs ie h jkrthie skqukejk. Ie tbis jhsk, wk httriùtk tbk rksiduhc tkra to

kitbkr tbk frowtb or rkdistriùtioe joapoeket ie kggkjt. Gor kxhapck, Mhmwhei hed Zu``hrho(899>) iapcijitcy hssuak tbht tbk frowtb thmks pchjk girst hed tbk rkdistriùtioe skjoed, hed

tbus is httriùtkd to tbk rkdistriùtioe joapoeket ie tbkir dkjoapositioe. Oe tbk otbkr

bhed, Lhie hed Tkeducmhr (899>) joesidkr h dkjoapositioe ie wbijb rkdistriùtioe thmkspchjk girst hed frowtb skjoed. Gorahccy, tbk Mhmwhei ‚Zu``hrho (MZ) hed Lhie ‚Tkeducmhr(LT) dkjoapositioes hrk dkgiekd hs goccows<

4

Dhtt hed Phvhccioe (8990) usk h disjrktk tiak aodkc. Oe tbk otbkr bhed, our prkskethtioe is `hskd oe hjoetieuous tiak aodkc. Bowkvkr, tbis distiejtioe ahmks eo kssketihc diggkrkejk. Tbk shak rkahrm hppciks tootbkr dkjoapositioe aktbods disjusskd ie tbis su`skjtioe.




6

Bowkvkr, tbk MZ hed LT dkjoapositioes hrk hcso ueshtisghjtory `kjhusk tbk hssuaptioeshòut tbk skqukejk og jbhefk hrk hrìtrhry. Gurtbkraork, ekitbkr tbk DP, tbk MZ, eor tbk LTdkjoapositioe shtisgiks tbk tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy dkgiekd `kcow<

Dkgieitioe 0. Tbk dkjoapositioe { } is tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistket

wbke gor hcc , , hed .

Tbk tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy rkquirks tbht wbke tbk povkrty ciek hed iejoak distriùtioe

rkvkrt groa tbk tkraiehc sthtk to tbk orifiehc sthtk , tbk rkvkrsk dkjoapositioeyikcds tbk shak dkjoapositioe rksuct kxjkpt tbht khjb joapoeket bhs tbk oppositk sife.

To skk wby tbk tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy is h rkhsoeh`ck rkquirkaket, iahfiek tbht you hrk

h tiak trhvkckr. You sthrt tbk trhvkc ht hed ked ht . You o`skrvk hcc tbk jbhefks`ktwkke hed , hed joedujt tbk povkrty dkjoapositioe. Eow, you rkture groa hed hcoef tbk shak phtb og jbhefk sujb tbht you kxpkrikejk hcc tbk jbhefks`hjmwhrds. Ig tbk tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy is eot shtisgikd, soak joapoekets joetriùtkkitbkr positivkcy or ekfhtivkcy to tbk povkrty akhsurk durief tbk ketirk tiak trhvkc, kvketboufb hcc tbk jbhefks tbht you bhvk kxpkrikejkd durief tbk –outfoief‑ trhvkc bhvk `kkejhejkcckd durief tbk –rkture‑ trhvkc.

Oek why to o`thie h tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistket dkjoapositioe is to thmk tbk hvkrhfk og MZhed LT dkjoapositioes. Tbis is tbk hvkrhfk og hcc possi`ck skqukejks (i.k., frowtb-rkdistriùtioe hed rkdistriùtioe-frowtb ie tbk sthedhrd two-why dkjoapositioe). @kjhusk tbisdkjoapositioe is kssketihccy `hskd oe tbk hvkrhfk og tbk ahrfiehc joetriùtioes og khjbjoapoeket ie hcc tbk possi`ck skqukejks, it is siaichr to tbk Zbhpcky socutioe ie joopkrhtivkfhaks hed tbus jhcckd tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe (Mockeimov hed Zborrojms 0>>;=Ahhsouai hed Ahbaoudi 0>8:). Gorahccy, khjb joapoeket ie tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe isdkgiekd hs goccows<

> 8 > 8 > 8( ) ( ( ) ( )) 0j j j

Z MZ LT A t t A t t A t t ,

wbkrk {}.

It is strhifbtgorwhrd to vkrigy tbht tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe is h tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistketdkjoapositioe (skk hcso Mhmwhei 0>>>). [ecimk MZ hed LT dkjoapositioes, tbk Zbhpckydkjoapositioe jhe hcso `k kxtkedkd to tbk jhsk og auctipck joapoekets. Zoe (0>>:)proposks h gour-joapoeket Zbhpcky-typk dkjoapositioe aktbod hppcikd to tbk rhtk ogpovkrty jbhefk gor h fkekrhc povkrty akhsurk.

Tbksk gkhturks og tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe hrk httrhjtivk. Bowkvkr, hs witb DP, MZ, hedLT dkjoapositioes, it doks eot shtisgy tbk su`pkriod hdditivity dkgiekd `kcow<

Dkgieitioe :. Hssuak tbht wk bhvk o`skrvhtioes og tbk povkrty akhsurk hed otbkr

rkckvhet phrhaktkrs ht tiak ie tbk tiak pkriod `ktwkke hed witb . Tbke, tbk dkjoapositioe { } is su`pkriod hdditivk wbke tbk goccowief kquhtioe is shtisgikd gor hcc <

> 8 8

8

( ) ( ) D

j j

d d

d

A t t A s s

(4)




2

Tbk su`pkriod joesistkejy rkquirks tbht tbk povkrty jbhefk duk to h phrtijuchr joapoeketgor two joetifuous su`pkriods is kquhc to tbk sua og tbk povkrty jbhefk duk to tbhtjoapoeket ie khjb su`pkriod.;

Dhtt hed Phvhccioe (8990) proposk to hddrkss tbis pro`cka `y gixief tbk rkgkrkejk tiak poiet ]

Q gor tbk dkjoapositioe og hcc su`pkriods. Tbis hpprohjb, bowkvkr, is eot idkhc

`kjhusk tbk rkgkrkejk pkriod ciks outsidk aost og tbk su`pkriods. Mhmwhei (0>>>) proposksheotbkr aktbod to hddrkss tbis issuk ùt bis aktbod is hcso ueshtisghjtory `kjhusk hehdditioehc o`skrvhtioe jbhefks tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts gor hcc su`pkriods. Ie tbk ekxtsu`skjtioe, tbkrkgork, wk proposk h siapck dkjoapositioe aktbod tbht hddrkssks hcc tbkissuks aketioekd hòvk.

0.0 Ekw Aktbod og Dyehaij ôvkrty Dkjoapositioe

To dkrivk h dkjoapositioe aktbod tbht is rksiduhc-grkk, tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistket, hed

su`pkriod hdditivk, wk jhe girst joesidkr he iegieitksiahc jbhefk og ( ) A t witb rkspkjt to

tiak t hed gied frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekets gor tbis jbhefk. Tbis hccows us to

ifeork tbk (skjoed-ordkr) ietkrhjtioe kggkjt so tbht tbk rksucts hrk rksiduhc-grkk. @yietkfrhtief khjb joapoeket ovkr tbk tiak ietkrvhc og ietkrkst, wk o`thie tbk frowtb hedrkdistriùtioe joapoekets. @kjhusk tbk rkgkrkejk tiak poiet is hcrkhdy ùict-ie ie tbisdkjoapositioe aktbod, our aktbod is jckhrcy tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistket. Tbk su`pkriodhdditivity goccows groa tbk propkrty og ietkfrhtioe. Dkspitk tbis siapcijity og tbk aktbod, tbis istbk girst phpkr to kapcoy tiak dkrivhtivk hed ietkfrhtioe to povkrty dkjoapositioe.7

[sief tbk eothtioes ietrodujkd ie Zkjtioe 0.8, wk jhe o`thie tbk goccowief rksucts<6

^ropositioe 8. Ckt {} hed dkgiek tbk goccowief<

8

>> 8

>

( )( ) d d

t z PD

t

y g y t A t t f y t

z t

(;)

8

>> 8 0>

d( ) (8) ( ) ( )d d

d

t z FP

t

y y z A t t f g z t f g y t y t

z t z

(7)

Tbke, tbk phir { } is h tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistket hed su`pkriod-hdditivk povkrty dkjoapositioe.

Gour poiets hrk ie ordkr. Girst, wk jbosk to usk tbk juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioe og tbk

rkchtivk iejoak to rkprksket our dkjoapositioe. Ie h eua`kr og prkvious studiks og povkrty

dkjoapositioe, bowkvkr, tbk Corkez jurvk bhs `kke uskd. @kjhusk tbk Corkez jurvk hed jhrry tbk shak iegorahtioe, wk jhe rkwritk kquhtioes (;) hed (7) usief tbk Corkez jurvk.

Bowkvkr, wk jboosk to usk gor siapcijity og prkskethtioe.

Zkjoed, it is strhifbtgorwhrd to vkrigy tbht bocds wbke is joesthet

ovkr ] Q gor fivke . Ie otbkr words, is drivke `y tbk jbhefks ie tbk distriùtioe

hed tbus wk jhcc it tbk rkdistriùtioe joapoeket. Ziaichrcy, wk bhvk ig is

joesthet ovkr . Ie ciek witb tbk prkvious studiks, wk jhcc tbk frowtb joapoeket, kvketboufb it is drivke `y tbk jbhefks ie òtb hed . Tbk rkhsoe tbht wk do so is tbht hcc tbk

; Ig wk hccow to `k outsidk tbk ietkrvhc `ktwkke hed hed is joetieuous, tbke tiak-rkvkrsioe

joesistkejy goccows groa su`pkriod hdditivity. To skk tbis, girst ckt . Tbke, wk aust bhvk

`y kq. (4). @y ckttief hed , wk bhvk , provief tbk jchia.7 Ie tbk joetkxt og sourjk dkjoapositioe og jbhefks ie iekquhcity, Omhaoto (0>88) proposks he ietkfrhtioe-`hskd

hpprohjb to lustigy Zbhpcky-typk dkjoapositioe.6 Hcc tbk proogs hrk providkd ie Hppkedix @.




9

jbhefks hrk duk to frowtb (jbhefk ie tbk akhe iejoak) oejk tbk povkrty ciek is gixkd, wbijbis wbht is hssuakd ie aost prkvious studiks oe povkrty dkjoapositioe.

Tbird, tbk girst ]skjoedQ tkra ie tbk ietkfrhc ie ie kquhtioe (;) rkprkskets tbk jbhefk iepovkrty ie tbk kxtkesivk ]ietkesivkQ ahrfie og povkrty. Tbk skjoed tkra is > gor tbk povkrtyrhtk akhsurk hed tbk girst tkra is > gor tbk Vhtts akhsurk hed tbk GFT akhsurk witb

.

Tbkrkgork, ie our hppcijhtioes, oecy oek og tbksk two tkras ahttkrs.

Gourtb, kquhtioes (;) hed (7) sbow tbht hed iejcudk òtb hed ie tbkir

ietkfrhtioes hed tbus dkpked oe tbk why hed vhry `ktwkke hed . Tbis akhestbht tbk dkjoapositioe is phtb-dkpkedket. Tbkrkgork, to iapckaket kquhtioes (;) hed (7), wk

ekkd tbk o`skrvhtioe og hed ovkr ] Q ie fkekrhc.

Ie h typijhc hppcijhtioe, bowkvkr, wk o`skrvk tbka oecy ht tbk `kfieeief hed ked og tbk tiakietkrvhc (i.k., hed ) hed possi`cy h gkw otbkr tiak poiets ie `ktwkke. Tbkrkgork,wk ekkd to ahmk soak hssuaptioes hòut tbk phtb to ahmk tbk dkjoapositioe opkrhtioehc.Oejk tbk hssuaptioes hrk ahdk, wk jhe jhcjuchtk tbk ietkfrhcs ie kquhtioes (;) hed (7) `y

euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe gor h fkekrhc gora og hed .

Ie khjb og tbk ekxt two su`skjtioes, wk ahmk h skt og spkjigij hssuaptioes hòut tbk phtb og

hed . Ie khjb jhsk, tbky siaucthekouscy hed saootbcy jbhefk ovkr tiak, wbijb is aorkrkhcistij tbhe tbk skquketihc jbhefks (iapcijitcy) hssuakd ie tbk DP, MZ, LT, hed Zbhpckydkjoapositioes. Vk sbow tbht our hssuaptioes ckhd to h joevkeiket kxprkssioe tbht dokseot rkquirk euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe.

0.: ôvkrty Phtk Dkjoapositioe uedkr Ciekhr Hpproxiahtioe

Ie tbis su`skjtioe, wk hssuak tbht òtb hed vhry ciekhrcy `ktwkke hed . Tbishssuaptioe is eot vkry rkstrijtivk, `kjhusk it jhe `k ietkrprktkd hs thmief h girst-ordkr

hpproxiahtioe to he uemeowe guejtioehc gora og hed witb rkspkjt to . Vk dkgiek

hed gor {} to siapcigy tbk kxprkssioes `kcow. Gor kxhapck, hed hrk tbk rkchtivk povkrty cieks ht tbk ieitihc hed tkraiehc tiak poiets, rkspkjtivkcy. [sieftbksk eothtioes, our ciekhrity hssuaptioe is hs goccows<

Hssuaptioe 8. Gor ] Q, hed rkspkjtivkcy shtisgy tbk goccowief kquhtioes<

> 8( ) (8 ) ( ) ( ) G y t y y G G

(6)

> 8( ) (8 ) z t z z (2)

wbkrk

.

Vk gojus oe tbk povkrty rhtk akhsurk `kjhusk it is tbk aost grkquketcy uskd akhsurk og

povkrty ie tbk citkrhturk hed ckhds to h giehc kxprkssioe tbht is siapck hed khsy to iapckaket,hs sbowe ie tbk goccowief propositioe<

^ropositioe 0. Zupposk tbht Hssuaptioe 8, , hed bocd. Tbke, tbk povkrty dkjoapositioe fivke ie ^ropositioe 8 jhe `k writtke hs goccows<

8 8 > > 8 8 > >8 8 > >8 8 8 8> 8

8 >

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ) PD

c

^ ^ ^ ^ z z z z z z z z G G G G A t t

z z

(9)

8 >8 >> 8 > > > 8( ) ( ) ( ) ( )FP PD

c A t t ^ ^ A t t z z G G (8>)

Vk hddkd tbk su`sjript to tbk ckgt-bhed-sidk vhrih`ck to kapbhsizk tbht tbis is tbk ciekhr

hpproxiahtioe. Ie kquhtioe (9),

gor {}

hed {}

is siapcy tbk povkrty

fhp jhcjuchtkd witb tbk rkchtivk iejoak distriùtioe gor hed rkchtivk povkrty ciek

gor . Ie kquhtioe (8>), gor {} is lust tbk povkrty rhtk ht . Tbkrkgork,




8>

kquhtioes (9) hed (8>) jhe `k iapckaketkd witbout hey spkjihc sogtwhrk phjmhfk hedwitbout euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe.

It sboucd `k eotkd tbht kquhtioes (9) hed (8>) do eot shtisgy tbk su`pkriod hdditivity. Tbht is,wk bhvk

ie fkekrhc. Tbk rkhsoe gor tbis is tbht tbk

ckgt-bhed sidk og tbis kquhtioe is `hskd oe tbk hssuaptioe tbht hed

jbhefk ciekhrcy

`ktwkke hed , wbkrkhs tbk rifbt-bhed sidk is `hskd oe tbk hssuaptioe tbht tbky jbhefkciekhrcy pikjkwisk `ktwkke hed hed `ktwkke hed .

Tbis `rkhmdowe og tbk su`pkriod hdditivity is eot he uedksirh`ck propkrty. Tbk disjussioehòvk sbows tbht wk sboucd fkekrhccy prkgkr

ovkr

ietbk h`skejk og otbkr iegorahtioe, `kjhusk tbk pikjkwisk ciekhr hpproxiahtioe is cimkcy toprodujk aork hjjurhtk hpproxiahtioe to tbk uedkrcyief phtb og jbhefk tbhe tbk ehïvk ciekhrhpproxiahtioe `ktwkke hed . Tbis hrfuaket doks eot iaakdihtkcy hppcy to otbkrdkjoapositioes. Tbht is, gor { }, it is eot iaakdihtkcy hpphrket wbktbkr wksboucd ghvor

ovkr

`kjhusk tbk gorakr kethics he iapcijit

jbhefk ie tbk rkgkrkejk pkriod or tbk skqukejk og jbhefk. Gor kxhapck, ie tbk jhsk og ,tbk gorakr usks two diggkrket rkgkrkejk tiak pkriods=

gor tbk povkrty jbhefk `ktwkke

hed hed gor tbk jbhefk `ktwkke hed .

Ie ^ropositioe 0, wk kxjcudkd tbk possiìcity og . Ig kquhtioe (2) hed bocd, wk

bhvk ⁄ gor ] Q hed tbus hed

. Ziejk tbis is eot heietkrkstief jhsk, wk kxjcudkd tbis possiìcity ie ^ropositioe 0. Bowkvkr, it sboucd `k eotkd

tbht doks eot iapcy ie fkekrhc witbout tbk ciekhrity hssuaptioe.

Gifurk 8 is uskguc gor ietkrprktief tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts fivke ie kquhtioes (9) hed (8>)hed gor joaphrief our aktbod witb prkviouscy proposkd aktbods. Tbk gifurk providks hfrhpbijhc rkprkskethtioe og tbk juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioe og rkchtivk iejoak hed tbkrkchtivk povkrty ciek ht hed . Tbk ckeftbs og ciek skfakets hed rkspkjtivkcy

rkprksket tbk povkrty rhtk ht hed , or ( ) hed ( ). Tbkrkgork, povkrty

bhs worskekd `ktwkke tbksk two tiak pkriods ie tbis gifurk. Tbk jhpithc ckttkrs to hrkuskd to rkprksket he hrkh dkgiekd `y òcd cieks. Eotk tbht hrkhs hed iejcudk soak phrtsog tbk sbhdkd hrkhs.

Gifurk 8< Frhpbijhc Pkprkskethtioe og ôvkrty Phtk Dkjoapositioeuedkr Hssuaptioe 8

Zourjk< Hutbor ’s owe iccustrhtioe.




88

Tbk fohc og h joevketioehc two-why povkrty dkjoapositioe is to spcit tbk ciek skfaket ietotbk frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekets. Ig tbk jbhefks ie tbk rkchtivk povkrty ciek hed tbkrkchtivk iejoak distriùtioe thmk pchjk skquketihccy, tbis dkjoapositioe is strhifbtgorwhrd`kjhusk wk oecy ekkd to coom ht oek joapoeket ht h tiak. Ie tbis jhsk, tbk rkdistriùtioe]frowtbQ joapoeket akhsurks tbk kggkjt og tbk jbhefk ie tbk rkchtivk iejoak distriùtioe ]tbk

rkchtivk povkrty ciekQ. Frhpbijhccy, tbk rkdistriùtioe joapoeket is tbk vkrtijhc disthejk`ktwkke tbk two juauchtivk distriùtioes hed ht h phrtijuchr , wbkrkhs tbk frowtbjoapoeket is tbk diggkrkejk ie h phrtijuchr juauchtivk distriùtioe `ktwkke hed .

Ig wk hssuak tbht tbk jbhefk ie tbk rkchtivk povkrty ciek prkjkdks ]goccowsQ tbk jbhefk ie tbkrkchtivk iejoak distriùtioe, wk o`thie tbk MZ ]LTQ dkjoapositioe. Tbk frowtb hedrkdistriùtioe joapoekets hrk tbk ckeftbs og ciek skfakets ]Q hed ]Q, rkspkjtivkcy,ie Gifurk 8. Ie tbk jhsk og tbk DP dkjoapositioe, tbk frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekethrk hed , rkspkjtivkcy, hed tbk rksiduhc joapoeket is wbht is eot kxpchiekd `y tbksktkras, wbijb is . Tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe is siapcy tbk hvkrhfk og tbk MZhed LT dkjoapositioes, rkspkjtivkcy.

To ietkrprkt kquhtioe (9), girst eotk tbht rkprkskets tbk hvkrhfk sbortghcc pkr

pkrsoe groa tbk povkrty ciek rkchtivk to tbk akhe iejoak. Tbkrkgork, is tbk hrkh

`kcow tbk juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioe hed to tbk ckgt og (skk hcso kquhtioe (@0) ie

Hppkedix @). Gor kxhapck, is tbk hrkh og hed joaìekd. It is strhifbtgorwhrd

to vkrigy tbht tbk euakrhtor og tbk rifbt-bhed sidk og kquhtioe (9) is hrkh . @y dividief tbishrkh `y , wk skk tbht tbk rkdistriùtioe joapoeket is rkprksketkd `y tbk vkrtijhc

disthejk `ktwkke hed hvkrhfkd ovkr { }. Zupposk eow tbht tbk rkdistriùtioejoapoeket is ie Gifurk 8. Tbke, tbk sbhdkd phrhcckcofrha bhs tbk shak hrkh hs .Kquhtioe (8>) sbows tbht tbk frowtb joapoeket is tbk phrt og povkrty jbhefk eot hjjouetkdgor `y tbk rkdistriùtioe joapoeket, wbijb is ie Gifurk 8.

Gifurk 8 hcso hccows us to sbow tbk rkchtioesbip `ktwkke tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe hed ourdkjoapositioe. Vbick thmief tbk hvkrhfk og possi`ck skquketihc jbhefks hppkhrs hrìtrhry,our rksucts sbow tbht it is eot joapcktkcy uerkhsoeh`ck. To skk tbis, girst eotk tbht wk o`thietbk Zbhpcky rkdistriùtioe joapoeket ig wk rkpchjk tbk euakrhtor og kquhtioe (9) `y tbk hrkhog tbk trhpkzoid (eot kxpcijitcy drhwe) witb two `hsks hed . Tbkrkgork, wk jhe joesidkrtbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe hs h why to hpproxiahtk tbk hrkh `y tbis trhpkzoid. Ie

phrtijuchr, ig tbk juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioes hed hrk ciekhr `ktwkke hed , tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe is kxhjtcy kquhc to our ciekhr hpproxiahtioe ie^ropositioe 0.

0.4 ôvkrty Phtk Dkjoapositioe uedkr Cof-Ciekhr Hpproxiahtioe

Hssuaptioe 8 ahy `k rkhsoeh`ck wbke tbk jbhefk ie is rkchtivkcy sahcc. Bowkvkr, wbke

tbk kjoeoay is kxpkrikejief rhpid kjoeoaij frowtb gor h coef pkriod og tiak, tbk ciekhrityhssuaptioe ie Hssuaptioe 8 ahy eot `k hpproprihtk. Ie sujb h jhsk, wk ahy `k h`ck too`thie h `kttkr hpproxiahtioe `y ahmief h ciekhr hpproxiahtioe witb rkspkjt to tbk

cofhritbaij rkchtivk iejoak hed cofhritbaij rkchtivk povkrty ciek . Tbkrkgork,wk ahmk tbk goccowief hssuaptioe ie tbis su`skjtioe<

Hssuaptioe 0. Ckt tbk juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioe og ht tiak `k . Gor

] Q, hed rkspkjtivkcy shtisgy tbk goccowief kquhtioes<

> 8( ) (8 ) ( ) ( )t (88)

> 8( ) (8 )t (80)

wbkrk >

8 >

t t

t t

, ( ) ( )h ht , hed ( )hh

t gor {> 8}h .




80

Hssuaptioe 0 is idketijhc to Hssuaptioe 8 kxjkpt tbht rkchtivk iejoak distri utioe hed rkchtivkpovkrty ciek hrk kxprksskd ie cofhritbaij gora. Hs witb Zkjtioe 8, wk gojus oe tbk povkrtyrhtk akhsurk ie tbis su`skjtioe. [edkr Hssuaptioe 0, wk bhvk tbk goccowief rksucts<

^ropositioe :. Zupposk tbht Hssuaptioe 0 hed bocd. Tbke, tbk povkrtydkjoapositioe fivke ie ^ropositioe 8 jhe `k writtke hs goccows<

8 > 8 >8 8 > >

> 8

8 >

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( )

PD

cc

V V V V z z z z G G G G A t t

(8:)

8 >8 >> 8 > > > 8( ) ( ) ( ) ( )FP PD

cc cc A t t ^ ^ A t t z z G G (84)

Ie Gifurk 0, wk providk h frhpbijhc rkprkskethtioe og tbk povkrty dkjoapositioe uedkr Hssuaptioe 0, wbijb is siaichr to Gifurk 8. Oek iaporthet diggkrkejk is, bowkvkr, tbht tbk

hrkh `kcow hed to tbk rifbt og rkprkskets tbk Vhtts akhsurk , `kjhusk tbkVhtts akhsurk is tbk juauchtivk fhp `ktwkke tbk cofhritbaij povkrty ciek hed tbkcofhritbaij iejoak (skk hcso kquhtioe (0>) ie Hppkedix @). Tbkrkgork, tbk euakrhtor og tbk

rifbt-bhed sidk og kquhtioe (8:) is hrkh

hed

is tbk vkrtijhc disthejk `ktwkke

hed

hvkrhfkd ovkr ] Q.

Gifurk 0< Frhpbijhc Pkprkskethtioe og ôvkrty Phtk Dkjoapositioeuedkr Hssuaptioe 0

Zourjk< Hutbor ’s owe iccustrhtioe

Gifurk 0 hcso bkcps us to uedkrsthed tbk rkchtioesbip `ktwkke our povkrty dkjoapositioe

hehcysis hed pro-poor frowtb. Eotijk girst tbht gor {} is tbk 8>> p-pkrjketick

cofhritbaij iejoak. Tbkrkgork, tbk frowtb iejidkejk jurvk proposkd `y Phvhccioe hed Jbke(0>>:), wbijb is tbk frowtb og iejoak gor khjb quhetick, hppkhrs hs tbk borizoethc disthejk

`ktwkke hed ie Gifurk 0.2 Ie tbk frhpb, is ekfhtivk `kjhusk is to tbk ckgt og (i.k., sahcckr tbhe) . He ovkrhcc akhsurk og pro-poor frowtb proposkd

`y Zoe hed Mhmwhei (0>>2, kquhtioe (8:)) is tbk ietkfrhc og ovkr tbk ueit ietkrvhc.

Tbis siapcy hppkhrs hs tbk ekt hrkh `ktwkke hed , wbijb is ekfhtivk ie Gifurk 0.

2 Phvhccioe hed Jbke (0>>:) usks h disjrktk tiak aodkc hed tbkir frowtb rhtk is tbk frowtb pkr pkriod. Tbk

frowtb ie Gifurk 0 hcso rkgkrs to tbk frowtb ie tbk tiak pkriod `ktwkke hed hed is kxprksskd hs h

diggkrkejk ie tbk cofhritbaij iejoak pkr jhpith.




8:

0.; Poùstekss Jbkjm witb h Zpkkd og Jbhefk ^hrhaktkr

Tbk MZ hed LT dkjoapositioes iapcijitcy hssuak tbht tbk akhe hed distriùtioe og iejoakjbhefk skquketihccy. Tbk PD hed Zbhpcky dkjoapositioes do eot iaposk h phrtijuchrskqukejk, ùt tbkir jhcjuchtioes hrk hcso `hskd oe soak skquketihc jbhefks. Our rksucts

prksketkd ie skjtioes 0.: hed 0.4, oe tbk otbkr bhed, hrk `hskd oe tbk hssuaptioe tbht òtbjbhefk siaucthekouscy hed saootbcy, wbijb is aork rkhcistij.

Bowkvkr, oek joucd hrfuk tbht Hssuaptioe 8 is stroef `kjhusk òtb rkchtivk iejoakdistriùtioe hed rkchtivk povkrty ciek hrk hssuakd to jbhefk ht tbk –shak spkkd.‑ Tbkrkgork,wk rkchx Hssuaptioe 8 hed rkpchjk kquhtioe (2) witb tbk goccowief kquhtioe<

> 8( ) (8 ) z t z z

(8;)

wbkrk is tbk phrhaktkr tbht dksjri`ks tbk spkkd og jbhefk gor rkchtivk to . Vbke

is chrfk, aost og tbk jbhefks ie ojjur wbke is hcrkhdy jcosk to . Ie ghjt, wbke wk ckt , tbk dkjoapositioe joevkrfks to tbk LT dkjoapositioe. Oe tbk otbkr bhed, wbke wkckt , tbk dkjoapositioe joevkrfks to tbk MZ dkjoapositioe. Tbkrkgork, `y vhryief , wkjhe jbkjm tbk roùstekss og tbk rksucts ie ^ropositioe 0. It is hcso possi`ck to do h siaichrroùstekss jbkjm gor ^ropositioe : `y rkpchjief witb ie tbk rifbt-bhed sidk ogkquhtioe (80).

0.7 Kxtkesioe to Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe

Ie tbis su`skjtioe, wk joesidkr h aork dkthickd dkjoapositioe, ie wbijb tbk povkrty jbhefkie khjb froup ie tbk popuchtioe is dkjoaposkd ieto six joapoekets. Vbick khjb frouprkprkskets h rkfioe ie our hppcijhtioe, it ahy rkprksket otbkr bouskbocd jbhrhjtkristijs sujbhs tbk bouskbocd sizk hed tbk skjtor ie wbijb tbk bouskbocd bkhd worms. Our dkjoapositioeis uskguc `kjhusk rkskhrjbkrs hed pocijy ahmkrs hrk ogtke ietkrkstkd ie giedief wbijb froup

is joetriùtief to ehtioehc povkrty jbhefk hed wby. Vbick wk joesidkr h phrtijuchr six-joapoeket dkjoapositioe, our dkjoapositioe jhe `k khsicy aodigikd to bhvk aork or gkwkrjoapoekets.

It sboucd hcso `k eotkd tbht our dkjoapositioe prksketkd ie ^ropositioe 4 `kcow jhe `kjoesidkrkd hs he ietkfrhtioe og tbk skjtor-`hskd dkjoapositioe proposkd `y Phvhccioe hedBuppi (8998) hed tbk frowtb-rkdistriùtioe dkjoapositioe disjusskd khrcikr. [ecimk Phvhccioehed Buppi (8998), bowkvkr, our dkjoapositioe doks eot bhvk he ietkrhjtioe tkra, wboskietkrprkthtioe is eot strhifbtgorwhrd. Tbkrkgork, our rksucts hccow rkskhrjbkrs hed pocijyahmkrs to idketigy tbk sourjk og povkrty jbhefk aork khsicy hed aork jckhrcy.

Vk bkrkhgtkr hssuak tbht tbkrk hrk froups (k.f., rkfioes or skjtors) ie tbk jouetry hedkhjb froup bhs h froup-spkjigij povkrty ciek ht tiak . Vk gurtbkr hssuak tbht tbk

froup-spkjigij povkrty cieks shtisgy ∘ , wbkrk hed hrk tbk prijk

hed quhetity og food { } joesuakd `y h typijhc bouskbocd ekhr tbk povkrty ciek iefroup . Tbkrkgork, tbk povkrty cieks ahy jbhefk eot oecy `y tbk jbhefks ie prijks ùt hcso`y tbk jbhefks ie tbk uedkrcyief ùedck og foods.

Vk dkeotk tbk popuchtioe sbhrk og froup `y . Tbk iejoak distriùtioe og froup bhs tbkpro`hìcity dkesity guejtioe hed juauchtivk distriùtioe guejtioe . Tbkrkgork, wk bhvk<

( ) ( ) ( ) hed ( ) ( ) ( ) f f f f

f f

g y t w t g y t G y t w t G y t (87)

gor hcc hed . Vk dkeotk tbk akhe iejoak gor froup ht tiak `y ∭

hed its rhtio to tbk popuchtioe akhe `y

⁄ . Vk dkeotk tbk iejoak rkchtivk totbk froup akhe `y ⁄ hed tbk povkrty ciek rkchtivk to tbk froup akhe `y

⁄ ⁄ . Tbk rkchtivk iejoak distriùtioe gor froup is jbhrhjtkrizkd `y tbk




84

pro`hìcity dkesity guejtioe , wbijb shtisgiks gor hcc . Vk usk bhteothtioes ( ) bkrk to kapbhsizk tbht tbk rkchtivk iejoak is rkchtivk to tbk froup akhe. [sieftbksk eothtioes, wk jhe joestrujt tbk goccowief six-why dkjoapositioe<

^ropositioe 4. Ckt { }J ^Z VP @P EF IG AJ hed dkgiek tbk goccowief tkras<

8

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p q y y A t t w f t f y t z g g

t z z

wbkrk gor is tbk joetriùtioe og froup to joapoeket , wbijb is dkeotkd`y ∘

. Tbke, tbk phir { } is h tiak-rkvkrsioe

joesistket hed su`pkriod-hdditivk povkrty dkjoapositioe.

Tbk girst joapoeket, is tbk popuchtioe-sbigt joapoeket `kjhusk it hjjouets gor tbkpovkrty jbhefks duk to tbk jbhefks ie tbk rkchtivk sizk og khjb froup. Tbk popuchtioe-sbigtjoapoeket rkprkskets òtb ietkr-froup aifrhtioe hed diggkrkejks ie tbk aorthcity hed gkrticityhjross froups. Vbke , tbk popuchtioe-sbigt joapoeket positivkcy joetriùtks topovkrty rkdujtioe wbke tbk sizk og wkhctbikr froups frows ghstkr tbhe tbk sizk og poorkrfroups. Gor kxhapck, ig wk dkgiek froups to `k ur`he hed rurhc hrkhs, wk jhe akhsurk tbkdkaofrhpbij kggkjt og ur`heizhtioe oe povkrty `y tbk popuchtioe-sbigt joapoeket.

Tbk skjoed joapoeket, is tbk witbie-froup rkdistriùtioe joapoeket, wbijb hjjouetsgor tbk povkrty jbhefk duk to tbk jbhefk ie tbk rkchtivk iejoak distriùtioe ie khjb froup.

Tbk tbird joapoeket, is tbk `ktwkke-froup rkdistriùtioe joapoeket, `kjhusk it isdrivke `y tbk jbhefk ie tbk rhtio og tbk froup-ckvkc akhe iejoak to tbk popuchtioe akhe.

Tbk gourtb joapoeket, jhe `k jhcckd tbk eoaiehc frowtb joapoeket `kjhusk itrkprkskets tbk jbhefk ie povkrty duk to tbk jbhefk ie tbk eoaiehc akhe iejoak. Tbk gigtb

joapoeket, jhe `k joesidkrkd tbk iegchtioe joapoeket, `kjhusk it rkprkskets tbkpovkrty jbhefk duk to tbk jbhefks ie tbk prijk og tbk ùedck og foods gor tbk povkrty ciek.

Tbk sixtb joapoeket, jhe `k jhcckd tbk aktbodocofijhc jbhefk joapoeket, `kjhusktbis is tbk povkrty jbhefk duk to tbk quhetity jbhefks ie tbk uedkrcyief ùedck og foods gortbk povkrty ciek. Tbk gigtb hed sixtb joapoekets joaìekd rkprksket tbk jbhefks ie povkrtyduk to tbk sbigt ie tbk eoaiehc povkrty cieks.

Hs witb tbk prkvious jhsks, wk ekkd to ahmk soak hssuaptioes hòut tbk phtb og jbhefk to

iapckaket tbk dkjoapositioe ie ^ropositioe 4. Tbkrkgork, wk siapcy hssuak tbht , ,

, , hed

jbhefk ciekhrcy. Tbht is, wk girst kstiahtk `y mkrekc dkesity kstiahtioe

hed jhcjuchtk , ,

, hed

gor hcc ht hed . Tbke, wk thmk tbk ciekhr




8;

ietkrpochtioe. Ie jhsk og , gor kxhapck, wk hssuak gor

⁄ . Vk ahmk h siaichr hssuaptioe gor , , hed

. Eotk tbht wk hrk

ueh`ck to o`thie siapck jcoskd-gora rksucts, `kjhusk is auctipcikd witb heotbkr tiak-vhryiefvhrih`ck ie tbk ietkfrhtioe.

0.6 Zoak Iapckakethtioe Issuks

To iapckaket tbk dkjoapositioe ie ^ropositioe 8 ie its fkekrhc gora, wk ekkd to kstiahtk ieh typijhc kapirijhc sktup. Tbkrkgork, tbk jboijk og mkrekc dkesity guejtioe hed `hedwidtb uskd

ie tbk kstiahtioe og hggkjts tbk rksucts. Goccowief tbk sthedhrd jboijk ie tbk citkrhturk, wkusk tbk Kphekjbeimov mkrekc dkesity guejtioe. Typijhccy, tbk jboijk og tbk mkrekc dkesityguejtioe is eot phrtijuchrcy iaporthet.9

Bowkvkr, tbk jboijk og tbk `hedwidtb is iaporthet hed jhe hggkjt tbk dkjoapositioe rksuctsie h eoe-ekfcifi`ck aheekr. Ig wk usk h sahcc `hedwidtb, tbk rksuctief povkrty kstiahtks hrkjcoskr to tbosk dirkjtcy jhcjuchtkd groa tbk o`skrvkd dhth. Bowkvkr, tbk frhpb og tbkkstiahtkd dkesity guejtioe is cimkcy to `k aork spimy. Oe tbk otbkr bhed, ig wk usk h chrfk

`hedwidtb, tbk kstiahtk og is cimkcy to `kjoak iehjjurhtk.

Tbis issuk is phrtijuchrcy iaporthet gor tbk dkjoapositioe og . Ig tbk `hedwidtb is too sahcc,

thmks h vkry bifb vhcuk ekhr o`skrvkd iejoak ckvkcs hed > gor hcc otbkr vhcuks. Ie tbis jhsk,

wk jheeot kstiahtk vkry hjjurhtkcy, wbijb ahmks it diggijuct to pkrgora tbk euakrijhcietkfrhtioe rkquirkd gor dkjoapositioe.

Fivke tbk joesidkrhtioes aketioekd hòvk, wk skt tbk bhcg-widtb og mkrekc ht (i.k.,oek pkrjkethfk poiet ie tbk rkchtivk iejoak), wbijb is sahcc keoufb to rkprodujk tbk povkrtysthtistijs tbht hrk vkry jcosk to povkrty sthtistijs dkrivkd dirkjtcy groa tbk orifiehc shapck ùtchrfk keoufb to kciaiehtk tbk spimks ie tbk dkesity kstiahtk groa our dhth. Hcc tbk kapirijhcrksucts prksketkd ie skjtioe 4 tbht rkcy oe mkrekc dkesity kstiahtioe hrk `hskd oe tbis jboijk

og `hedwidtb.8>

To iapckaket tbk euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe, wk hdoptkd tbk goccowief projkdurk. Girst, wk

kstiahtk hed oe h skt og gixkd kvhcuhtioe poiets { }, wbkrk is tbkeua`kr og kvhcuhtioe poiets, , hed gor hcc ] Q. Zkjoed, goccowief tbk

ietkrpochtioe ruck spkjigikd ie tbk hssuaptioe (k.f., kquhtioe (6)), wk dkrivk oe khjbkvhcuhtioe poiet ht tiak { } , wbkrk , , hed is tbk eua`kr og

kvhcuhtioe poiets gor tbk outkr ietkfrhc ie ^ropositioe 8. Tbird, usief tbk kstiahtk og , wkkvhcuhtk tbk ieekr ietkfrhc usief h euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe aktbod. Oejk wk o`thie tbk ieekrietkfrhc, wk kvhcuhtk tbk outkr ietkfrhc ie h siaichr aheekr.88 To o`thie suggijiketcy hjjurhtkrksucts, wk skt ie our kapirijhc hppcijhtioe.80

9 Eotk bkrk tbht wk oecy ekkd tbk mkrekc dkesity kstiahtks gor tbk cowkr thic gor our hehcysis. @y gojusief oe tbk

cowkr thic, wk jhe rkdujk tbk akaory ushfk.8>

Ie Hppkedix D, wk prksket tbk rksucts witb ;>% chrfkr hed sahcckr `hedwidtb to vkrigy tbk roùstekss og our

rksucts.88

Vk iapckaketkd tbis witb h quhdrhtij ietkrpochtioe, wbijb is kssketihccy Ziapsoe’s ruck. Vk ahm k soak

hdlustakets, `kjhusk tbk uppkr ked og tbk ietkfrhc, , vhriks ovkr tiak hed doks eot joiejidk witb he

kvhcuhtioe poiet ie fkekrhc. Hcso, `kjhusk ⁄ divkrfks to iegieity ht wbke uedkr tbk hssuaptioeog kq. (8;), wk usk h ciekhr hpproxiahtioe og tbk kxprkssioe iesidk tbk squhrk `rhjmkt ie kq. (7) ie tbis jhsk tojhcjuchtk tbk ietkfrhc ovkr tbk girst ietkrvhc (i.k., ] Q). Tbk dkthics og tbis trkhtaket hrk fivke ie Hppkedix J.

80 Joaphrisoe og tbk euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe rksucts uedkr ciekhr hssuaptioe witb tbk hehcytijhc rksucts prksketkd ie

Zkjtioe 0.: iedijhtks tbht tbk ahrfie og tbk krror is ht aost >.>>4 pkrjkethfk poiets gor two-why dkjoapositioe

hehcysis. Gor otbkr rksucts, wk jheeot dirkjtcy kvhcuhtk tbk hjjurhjy og our euakrijhc rksucts. Bowkvkr, tbkjoaphrisoe `ktwkke tbk sua og khjb joapoeket ie tbk dkjoapositioe hehcysis hed tbk o`skrvkd jbhefkprovidks soak fuidhejk. Hjjordief to tbis jritkrioe, tbk six-why dkjoapositioe ie Zkjtioe 4 is scifbtcy ckss




87

:. DHTH HED ÔWKPTY AKHZ[PKAKET

Vk usk tbk pu`cij uskr gicks gor tbk goccowief eiek roueds og tbk Ghaicy Iejoak hedKxpkediturk Zurvky (GIKZ)< 892;, 8922, 8998, 8994, 8996, 0>>>, 0>>:, 0>>7, hed 0>>9. TbkGIKZ whs jocckjtkd `y tbk Ehtioehc Zthtistijs Oggijk (EZO). Tbk GIKZ dhth iejcudk iejoak,

kxpkediturk, hed vhrious otbkr bouskbocd iegorahtioe. Tbky hrk uskd gor jhcjuchtief oggijihcpovkrty sthtistijs pu`cisbkd `y tbk Ehtioehc Zthtistijhc Joordiehtioe @ohrd (EZJ@). Gor tbksix-why dkjoapositioe ie ^ropositioe 4, wk hcso usk tbk prijk dhth thmke groa tbk joesuakrprijk iedkx (JÎ), hcso jocckjtkd `y tbk EZO. Hs eotkd khrcikr, wk thmk khjb rkfioe hs hfroup ie tbk six-why dkjoapositioe, ùt tbk dkgieitioe og rkfioes ie tbk ^bicippieks bhsjbhefkd ovkr tiak. Tbus, wk jboosk to hdopt tbk chtkst dkgieitioe, wbijb bhs 86 rkfioes, hedjoestrujtkd tbk rkfioe vhrih`ck uedkr tbis dkgieitioe gor khrcikr roueds og GIKZ groa tbkproviejk vhrih`ck ie tbk dhth.

Tbk distriùtioe og tbk cofhritbaij eoaiehc heeuhc iejoak pkr jhpith ie tbk ^bicippieks isprksketkd ie Gifurk :. Tbk gifurk sbows tbht tbk distriùtioe ie khjb GIKZ roued hgtkr 892;girst-ordkr stojbhstijhccy doaiehtks tbk prkvious roued, iapcyief tbht tbk eoaiehc iejoak bhs

iejrkhskd gor òtb tbk rijb hed tbk poor ie tbk ^bicippieks. Bowkvkr, tbis gifurk ifeorks tbkiegchtioe hed bktkrofkekity hjross rkfioes, hed tbus doks eot providk h jckhr pijturk hòuttbk sourjks og povkrty jbhefk ie tbk ^bicippieks. Tbkrkgork, tbk povkrty dkjoapositioeaktbods dkvkcopkd ie tbk prkvious skjtioe hrk uskguc.

Gifurk :< Juauchtivk Distriùtioe Guejtioe og tbk Cofhritbaij Iejoak pkr Jhpithpkr Ykhr ie ^bicippiek ^ksos

Zourjk< Hutbor ’s jhcjuchtioe `hskd oe Ghaicy Iejoak hed Kxpkediturk Zurvky (GIKZ) dhth.

To iapckaket tbk dkjoapositioe, wk girst ekkd to skt tbk povkrty cieks. H ehturhc jboijkwoucd `k tbk EZJ@’s oggijihc povkrty cieks, `kjhusk tbk oggijihc povkrty sthtistijs hrk widkcyuskd `y tbk fovkreaket hed hrk oek og tbk aost iaporthet sthtistijs gor tbk gorauchtioe ogpovkrty rkdujtioe pocijiks ie tbk ^bicippieks.

Bowkvkr, tbk oggijihc aktbodocofy gor skttief tbk povkrty cieks bhs `kke rkviskd tbrkk tiaks. Hs jckhrcy skke ie Gifurk 4, tbk kstiahtks `hskd oe diggkrket rkvisioes og aktbodocofy hrk

hjjurhtk. Bowkvkr, our kstiahtks (ie pkrjkethfk poiets) hrk hjjurhtk ht ckhst up to tbk girst dkjiahc poiet hedup to tbk skjoed dkjiahc poiet ie aost jhsks. Dkthickd rksucts hrk providkd ie Hppkedix D.




86

eot dirkjtcy joaphrh`ck `kjhusk povkrty kstiahtks gor h fivke ykhr ahy vhry su`sthetihccywitb tbk aktbodocofy kapcoykd. Aorkovkr, eo rkvisioe og tbk oggijihc aktbodocofy jovkrs tbkketirk eiek roueds og GIKZ, ahmief it diggijuct to uedkrsthed tbk ehturk og tbk coef-tkrapovkrty jbhefks ie tbk ^bicippieks. Gurtbkraork, kvke wbke tbk shak rkvisioe ogaktbodocofy is uskd, tbk joaphrhìcity og oggijihc povkrty sthtistijs ovkr tiak hed hjross

rkfioes bhs `kke disputkd (@hcishjhe 0>>:= @krehcks 0>>9) hed auctipck vkrsioes og –oggijihc‑kstiahtks hppkhr to kxist gor soak ykhrs.

Gifurk 4< Joaphrisoe `ktwkke Oggijihc ôvkrty Zthtistijs hed Our ôvkrty Zthtistijs

Eotk< Tbk borizoethc hed vkrtijhc hxis iedijhtk tbk jhckedhr ykhr hed tbk povkrty rhtk ie pkrjkethfk, rkspkjtivkcy.

Zourjk< Oggijihc gifurks hrk joapickd groa Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem (0>>;) hedbttp<//www.esj`.fov.pb/povkrty/0>>9/th`ck_0.hsp.

Bkejk, wk jbosk to hdopt h aodigikd vkrsioe og tbk 0>88 rkvisioe og tbk oggijihc aktbodocofyhed produjkd our owe `hjm kstiahtks. Gor tbk ykhrs ie wbijb oggijihc povkrty kstiahtks`hskd oe tbk 0>88 rkvisioe og tbk aktbodocofy hrk hvhich`ck, our povkrty sthtistijs hrk vkrysiaichr to tbk oggijihc povkrty sthtistijs hs sbowe ie Gifurk 4. Tbky hcso bhvk h trked vkrysiaichr to oggijihc povkrty sthtistijs gor otbkr ykhrs. Tbkrkgork, our povkrty sthtistijs jhpturkwkcc tbk jbhefks ie tbk oggijihc povkrty sthtistijs ovkr tiak. Gurtbkr dkthics oe tbk dhth hedpovkrty akhsurkaket gor tbis study hrk providkd ie Hppkedix H.

4. PKZ[CTZ

Ie tbis skjtioe, wk prksket vhrious dkjoapositioe rksucts. Vk sthrt witb tbk two-whydkjoapositioe uedkr tbk ciekhr hpproxiahtioe disjusskd ie skjtioe 0.:, tbk rksucts og wbijbhrk fivke ie Th`ck 8. Vbick joevkeiket hehcytijhc rksucts uedkr ciekhr hpproxiahtioe hrk oecyhvhich`ck gor tbk povkrty rhtk , wk bhvk hcso jhrrikd out tbk dkjoapositioe gor povkrty fhp, povkrty skvkrity , hed tbk Vhtts akhsurk `y euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe.8: Tbk girst twojocuaes ie Th`ck 8 providk tbk ieitihc ykhr hed tbk tkraiehc ykhr . Gor khjb povkrty

8: Tbk dkjoapositioe rksuct gor ^ > rkportkd ie Th`ck 8 is `hskd oe ^ropositioe 0 hed tbus dkrivkd witbout mkrekc

dkesity kstiahtioe. Gor hcc otbkr dkjoapositioe rksucts, mkrekc dkesity kstiahtioe is uskd. Ie tbk jhsk og two-

why dkjoapositioe, is kstiahtkd gor tbk ^bicippieks. Ie tbk jhsk og six-why dkjoapositioe, is kstiahtkd gor

khjb rkfioe og tbk ^bicippieks. Tbis ckhds to h sahcc disjrkphejy ie hjross th`cks.




82

akhsurk, wk rkport tbk ieitihc ckvkc og povkrty , tbk jbhefk ie tbk povkrty akhsurk`ktwkke hed , tbk frowtb joapoeket , hed tbk rkdistriùtioe joapoeket . Gorkxhapck, tbk frowtb joapoeket og tbk jbhefk ie povkrty fhp `ktwkke 8994 hed 8996 is-:.4> pkrjkethfk poiets. Tbk chst row (hcc pkriods) is tbk sua og hcc tbk jbhefks ie tbk kifbt:-ykhr pkriods.

Th`ck 8 sbows tbht tbk povkrty jbhefks ie tbk ^bicippieks bhvk `kke chrfkcy drivke `y tbkfrowtb joapoeket. Eotijk bkrk tbht tbk frowtb joapoeket ie tbis hehcysis rkgkrs to tbkjbhefk ie povkrty duk to tbk rkchtivk povkrty ciek, or tbk povkrty ciek ovkr tbk akhe iejoak.Tbkrkgork, tbk kggkjt og iegchtioe ht tbk povkrty ciek is hcrkhdy hjjouetkd gor ie tbk frowtbjoapoeket.

Th`ck 8 hcso sbows tbht tbk phttkres og povkrty jbhefk hrk siaichr hjross hcc tbk povkrtyakhsurks joesidkrkd bkrk. Ovkr tbk pkriods `ktwkke 892; hed 0>>9, hòut :>% og tbkpovkrty rkdujtioe hjbikvkd `y kjoeoaij frowtb bhs `kke oggskt `y worskekd iejoakiekquhcity, rkfhrdckss og tbk povkrty akhsurk uskd. Aost og tbk kggkjts og worskeief iejoakiekquhcity toom pchjk ie tbk two pkriods 8922 ‚8998 hed 8994 ‚8996.

Oek joejkre hòut tbis hehcysis is tbht tbk rksucts ahy `k drivke `y our ciekhrity hssuaptioe.Tbkrkgork, wk bhvk jhrrikd out h roùstekss jbkjm hssuaief kquhtioes (6) hed (8;) hsdksjri`kd ie skjtioe 0.;. Th`ck 0 sbows tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts gor tbk povkrty rhtk usiefvhrious vhcuks og hed h gkw otbkr aktbods dksjri`kd ie skjtioe 0. Tbk tbird jocuae, , is

tbk jbhefk ie povkrty rhtk `ktwkke hed . Tbk gourtb jocuae, , is tbk frowtb

joapoeket ie tbk MZ dkjoapositioe, wbijb jorrkspoeds to . Tbk gigtb jocuae, ⁄ ,

is tbk frowtb joapoeket gor ⁄ . Tbk rksucts ie tbk skvketb jocuae, , hrk tbk shak

hs tbosk prksketkd ie tbk gigtb jocuae og Th`ck 8. Tbk tketb jocuae, , is tbk frowtb

joapoeket gor tbk LT dkjoapositioes, wbijb jorrkspoeds to . Hs sbowe ie tbk gigtb totketb jocuaes og Th`ck 0, tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts hrk quitk sth`ck.

Tbk kckvketb jocuae, , is tbk frowtb joapoeket ie tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe. Tbk

twkcgtb jocuae, , is tbk frowtb joapoeket uedkr tbk cof-ciekhr hpproxiahtioe disjusskd ieZkjtioe 4. Tbksk dkjoapositioe rksucts hrk hcso siaichr to tbk rksucts prksketkd ie Th`ck 8.

Tbk chst jocuae, , is tbk rksiduhc joapoeket ie tbk DP dkjoapositioe, wbijb tures out to`k sahcc. Tbus, our dkjoapositioe rksucts hed tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts `hskd oe tbkkxistief aktbods hrk fkekrhccy jcosk ie tbk ^bicippieks gor tbk tiak pkriods wk bhvkjoesidkrkd.

Bowkvkr, our giedief doks eot iapcy tbht tbk jboijk og dkjoapositioe aktbod doks eotahttkr. To skk bow aujb tbk jboijk og aktbod ahy ahttkr, wk jhrry out he kxpkriaket gorpovkrty rhtk dkjoapositioe. Vk hssuak tbht tbk ciekhrity hssuaptioe is shtisgikd pikjkwiskgor hcc kifbt :-ykhr pkriods groa 892; to 0>>9 hed trkht tbk dkjoapositioe uedkr tbishssuaptioe hs tbk `kejbahrm dkjoapositioe rksuct. Vk tbke drop groa tbk dhth soak ykhrs

ie `ktwkke hed jhcjuchtk tbk frowtb joapoeket og povkrty jbhefk gor khjb pkriod ie tbkdhth (k.f., ig ykhrs 8922, 8998, 8994, 0>>:, hed 0>>7 hrk droppkd groa tbk dhth, tbkrk hrktbrkk pkriods< 892; ‚8996, 8996 ‚0>>>, hed 0>>> ‚0>>9) hed hdd tbk frowtb joapoeket gortbksk pkriods to hrrivk ht he kstiahtk og tbk frowtb joapoeket gor tbk ketirk pkriod 892; ‚0>>9. Vk do tbis gor hcc tbk possi`ck joaìehtioes gor khjb eua`kr og o`skrvhtioes droppkd.Vk tbke jhcjuchtk tbk ahxiaua hed akhe h`socutk dkvihtioe og tbk kstiahtkd frowtbjoapoeket groa tbk `kejbahrm frowtb joapoeket. Eotk bkrk tbht wbktbkr wk usk tbkfrowtb joapoeket or rkdistriùtioe joapoeket ahmks eo diggkrkejk ie tbk two-whydkjoapositioe `kjhusk tbk jbhefk ie povkrty `ktwkke 892; hed 0>>9 is gixkd hed tbus tbkh`socutk dkvihtioes hrk tbk shak gor frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekets.




89

Th`ck 8< Joaphrisoe og Two-Vhy Dkjoapositioe Pksucts hjross Whrious ovkrty Akhsurks

ôvkrty rhtk (^ > ) ôvkrty fhp (^ 8 ) ôvkrty skvkrity (^ 0 ) Vhtts akhsurk (V )

892; 8922 :;.2: -:.>6 -0.20 ->.0; 88.8: -8.47 -8.80 ->.:4 4.20 ->.2; ->.;7 ->.09 8;.>2 -0.02 -8.78 ->.76

8922 8998 :0.67 >.>2 -:.8; :.0: 9.77 >.04 -8.:: 8.;6 :.96 >.08 ->.77 >.26 80.2> >.42 -8.9> 0.:9

8998 8994 :0.24 -4.08 -0.49 -8.60 9.9> -8.4; -8.>8 ->.44 4.82 ->.77 ->.;> ->.87 8:.02 -0.>8 -8.44 ->.;6

8994 8996 02.7: -0.72 -2.46 ;.69 2.4; ->.24 -:.4> 0.;7 :.;0 ->.:9 -8.76 8.02 88.06 -8.89 -4.2: :.74

8996 0>>> 0;.9; >.27 >.92 ->.80 6.78 >.00 >.:9 ->.86 :.8: >.>7 >.89 ->.8: 8>.>2 >.07 >.;; ->.09

0>>> 0>>: 07.2> -0.;0 -8.>8 -8.;8 6.2: ->.6; ->.:9 ->.:7 :.0> ->.02 ->.89 ->.>9 8>.:4 ->.97 ->.;; ->.48

0>>: 0>>7 04.09 8.99 8.68 >.06 6.>2 >.;0 >.72 ->.87 0.98 >.84 >.:: ->.89 9.:9 >.;2 >.97 ->.:2

0>>7 0>>9 07.06 >.>9 8.>6 ->.92 6.7> ->.:4 >.40 ->.66 :.>; ->.0: >.0> ->.4: 9.96 ->.;; >.;9 -8.84

Hcc pkriods -9.46 -84.86 4.6> -:.26 -;.6; 8.22 -0.>> -0.27 >.26 -;.77 -2.0: 0.;6

Eotk< A(t>) is ie pkrjkethfk. Δ, FP, hed PD hrk hcc ie pkrjkethfk poiets.

Zourjk< Hutbor ’s jhcjuchtioe hskd oe Ghaicy Iejoak hed Kxpkediturk Zurvky (GIKZ) dhth.

Th`ck 0< Dkjoapositioe og ôvkrty Phtk witb Whrious Aktbods hed Whcuks og κ

⁄

⁄

892; 8922 -:.>6 -0.90 -0.98 -0.26 -0.20 -0.66 -0.6: -0.76 -0.2> -0.20 >.0;

8922 8998 >.>2 -:.89 -:.89 -:.87 -:.8; -:.84 -:.84 -:.80 -:.87 -:.8; >.>7

8998 8994 -4.08 -0.49 -0.;8 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 -0.;> -0.;> -0.49 -0.49 ->.>8

8994 8996 -0.72 -2.:2 -2.42 -2.4; -2.46 -2.42 -2.42 -2.47 -2.40 -2.46 ->.>2

8996 0>>> >.2; >.9; >.96 >.96 >.92 >.99 >.99 8.>> >.96 >.92 >.>;

0>>> 0>>: -0.;8 -8.>: -8.>: -8.>0 -8.>8 -8.>> ->.99 ->.92 -8.>> -8.>> >.>;

0>>: 0>>7 8.92 8.67 8.6; 8.6: 8.68 8.6> 8.79 8.72 8.60 8.68 ->.>2

0>>7 0>>9 >.>9 8.>: 8.>; 8.>7 8.>6 8.>9 8.88 8.8: 8.>2 8.>2 >.8>

Eotk< Hcc tbk gifurks gor povkrty dkjoapositioe hrk ie pkrjkethfk poiets.

Zourjk< Hutbor ’s jhcjuchtioe hskd oe Ghaicy Iejoak hed Kxpkediturk Zurvky (GIKZ) dhth.




0>

Th`ck : sbows tbk rksucts og tbis kxpkriaket. Tbk MZ, LT, hed Z jocuaes rkspkjtivkcy sbowtbk ahxiaua hed akhe h`socutk dkvihtioes og tbk frowtb joapoeket ie tbk MZ, LT hedZbhpcky dkjoapositioes groa tbk `kejbahrm frowtb joapoeket, wbkrkhs tbk kquhtioe (8>)hed kquhtioe (84) jocuaes rkspkjtivkcy sbow tbk jorrkspoedief sthtistijs uedkr tbk ciekhrhed cof-ciekhr hpproxiahtioes.

Th`ck :< Tbk Akhe hed Ahxiaua H`socutk Dkvihtioes groa tbk @kejbahrmDkjoapositioe Pksucts

(pkrjkethfk poiets)

# droppkd o`s. # joa` stht MZ LT Z kq. (8>) kq. (84)

6 8Ahx >.0; >.:4 >.>4 >.00 >.0:

Akhe >.0; >.:4 >.>4 >.00 >.0:

7 6Ahx >.;> >.92 >.4; >.:7 >.:6

Akhe >.00 >.;: >.0; >.89 >.89

; 08 Ahx >.97 >.96 >.46 >.48 >.48Akhe >.:4 >.;4 >.0: >.87 >.86

4 :;Ahx 8.>8 8.8> >.49 >.:2 >.4>

Akhe >.:9 >.;> >.08 >.8; >.87

: :;Ahx 8.>; >.92 >.4; >.4; >.46

Akhe >.4> >.4: >.82 >.8; >.8;

0 08Ahx 8.>; >.72 >.48 >.48 >.40

Akhe >.:7 >.:4 >.87 >.84 >.84

8 6Ahx 8.>9 >.49 >.:7 >.0; >.04

Akhe >.:8 >.06 >.80 >.80 >.80

> 8Ahx >.0; >.82 >.>: >.>> >.>>

Akhe >.0; >.82 >.>: >.>> >.>>

Eotk< Hcc tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts hrk dkrivkd dirkjtcy groa tbk dhth witbout dkesity kstiahtioe.


Tbk girst row sbows tbk jhsk ie wbijb hcc skvke o`skrvhtioes strijtcy `ktwkke 892; hed 0>>9hrk droppkd (i.k., oecy ykhrs 892; hed 0>>9 hrk uskd). @kjhusk tbkrk is oecy oekjoaìehtioe ie tbis jhsk, tbk ahxiaua hed akhe hrk idketijhc. Gor kxhapck, Th`ck : sbowstbht tbk frowtb joapoeket uedkr tbk ciekhrity hssuaptioe `ktwkke 892; hed 0>>9 isdiggkrket groa tbht ie tbk `kejbahrm jhsk og pikjkwisk ciekhrity hssuaptioe `y >.00

pkrjkethfk poiets. Ie tbk skjoed row, wk joesidkr tbk jhsk ie wbijb wk drop sixo`skrvhtioes. @kjhusk wk mkkp oecy oek og tbk skvke o`skrvhtioes strijtcy `ktwkke 892;hed 0>>9 ie tbis jhsk, tbkrk hrk skvke possi`ck joaìehtioes hs sbowe ie tbk skjoedjocuae. Tbk `kejbahrm jhsk jorrkspoeds to kquhtioe (8>) witb eo o`skrvhtioe droppkd hedbkejk tbk chst row gor tbk kquhtioe (8>) jocuae is > `y joestrujtioe.

Vk skk tbht fkekrhccy tbk chst tbrkk jocuaes pkrgora `kttkr tbhe tbk MZ hed LT jocuaes.Tbis is eot surprisief `kjhusk òtb tbk MZ hed LT dkjoapositioes rkcy oe tbk hssuaptioetbht frowtb hed rkdistriùtioe jbhefk skquketihccy. Vbick tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe issiapcy tbk hvkrhfk og tbksk two dkjoapositioes, it is jcosk to tbk `kejbahrm jhsk `kjhusk itjhe hpproxiahtk tbk ciekhr hssuaptioe rkhsoeh`cy wkcc, hs hrfukd ie Zkjtioe 0.:.Kquhtioe (8>) is jcosk to tbk `kejbahrm `y joestrujtioe, `kjhusk tbk hssuakd phtb ogjbhefk is tbk shak hs tbk `kejbahrm jhsk kxjkpt gor tbk pkriods tbht ievocvk tbk droppkdo`skrvhtioes. Kquhtioe (84) is hcso jcosk to tbk `kejbahrm, `kjhusk tbk uedkrcyief phtb ogjbhefks is siaichr to kquhtioe (8>). Ig tbk pikjkwisk ciekhrity hssuaptioe is he hjjurhtk




08

hpproxiahtioe to tbk hjtuhc jbhefk, Th`ck : sbows tbht our aktbod is fkekrhccy `kttkr tbheotbkr aktbods.

Th`ck 4< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og ^ > `y Tiak ^kriod

^Z VP @P EF IG AJ

892; 8922 >.0: >.48 >.2: -86.90 9.7; :.64 -:.>7

8922 8998 ->.09 8.4> 0.08 -07.0; 08.>; 8.9; >.>6

8998 8994 >.04 -8.96 ->.0: -80.2: 80.64 -0.84 -4.89

8994 8996 ->.8: 4.74 8.46 -0>.09 9.82 0.4: -0.6>

8996 0>>> ->.:2 >.4> >.84 -6.78 6.24 >.47 >.27

0>>> 0>>: ->.08 >.:2 -0.07 -:.68 ;.40 -0.8: -0.;0

0>>: 0>>7 >.0> ->.0; ->.8: -6.>> 2.08 >.97 8.99

0>>7 0>>9 >.>7 ->.;; -8.:; -9.42 2.74 0.66 >.8>

Hcc pkriods ->.02 4.47 >.76 -8>;.>9 20.6: 2.>; -9.4;

Eotk< Hcc tbk gifurks gor povkrty dkjoapositioe hrk kxprksskd ie pkrjkethfk poiets.


Heotbkr iaporthet hdvhethfk og our aktbod is tbht it hccows gor aork dkthickddkjoapositioes. [ecimk tbk MZ, LM, hed PD dkjoapositioes, wk jhe ekhtcy dkjoaposk tbkpovkrty jbhefk ieto popuchtioe sbigt, witbie-froup rkdistriùtioe, ktwkke-froup rkdistriùtioe,eoaiehc frowtb, iegchtioe, hed aktbodocofijhc jbhefk joapoekets gor khjb froup ie tbkpopuchtioe og ietkrkst. Vbick tbk Zbhpcky dkjoapositioe hcso hccows us to produjk rksiduhc-grkk dkjoapositioe rksucts, it is joaputhtioehccy iegkhsi`ck to jhrry out six-why dkjoapositioewitb rkfioehc dishffrkfhtioe `kjhusk tbk eua`kr og possi`ck skqukejks og jbhefk is kquhcto tbk ghjtorihc og tbk eua`kr og joapoekets.

Ie Th`ck 4, wk rkport tbk rksucts og six-why dkjoapositioe og povkrty rhtk dksjri`kd ieskjtioe 0.7. Tbk chst row is tbk sua og tbk kifbt :-ykhr pkriods hed tbk chst jocuae, wbijbrkprkskets tbk jbhefk ie povkrty rhtk, is kquhc to tbk sua og hcc six joapoekets. Tbkrk hrktbrkk iaporthet poiets to eotk ie tbis th`ck.

Girst, Th`ck 4 sbows tbht tbk eoaiehc frowtb bhs joetriùtkd to h aork tbhe 8>>-pkrjkethfk-poiet rkdujtioe ie povkrty rhtk `ktwkke 892; hed 0>>9. Tbis is possi`ck `kjhusk eoaiehcfrowtb jhe kciaiehtk povkrty jrkhtkd `y otbkr ghjtors sujb hs iegchtioe. Ie ghjt, Th`ck 4 sbowstbht aujb og tbk povkrty rkdujtioe `y eoaiehc frowtb bhs `kke oggskt `y iegchtioe. Ig wkdkgiek tbk kggkjt og rkhc frowtb hs tbk joaìekd kggkjts og eoaiehc frowtb hed iegchtioejoapoekets, wk skk tbht tbk kggkjt og rkhc frowtb bhs joetriùtkd to tbk rkdujtioe og povkrty`y aork tbhe 0> pkrjkethfk poiets `ktwkke 892; hed 0>>9 ie tbk ^bicippieks. Tbis

ovkrwbkcaief kggkjt og rkhc frowtb woucd eot `k surprisief fivke tbht jouetriks witb bifbkrfrowtb bhvk tkedkd to rkdujk povkrty ht h ghstkr rhtk. It is hcso wortb eotief tbht aujb og tbkrkhc-frowtb kggkjt bhs thmke pchjk `kgork 8996 hed rkhc frowtb bhs eot joetriùtkd to povkrtyrkdujtioe siejk tbke.

Zkjoed, Th`ck 4 hcso sbows tbht povkrty bhs iejrkhskd duk to òtb witbie-frouprkdistriùtioe hed `ktwkke-froup rkdistriùtioe kggkjts, ùt tbk gorakr kggkjt is aujb chrfkrtbhe tbk chttkr. It hcso sbows tbht tbkir rkchtivk iaporthejk bhs jbhefkd ovkr tiak. Gorkxhapck, tbk ahie drivkr og povkrty iejrkhsk duk to worskeief distriùtioe whs `ktwkke-rkfioe iekquhcity gor 8922 ‚8998, ùt it whs witbie-rkfioe iekquhcity gor 8994 ‚8996. Vk hcsoskk groa Th`ck 4 tbht tbk `ktwkke-rkfioe iekquhcity bhs jbhefkd ghvorh`cy gor povkrtyrkdujtioe siejk 0>>>. Vk hcso skk tbht tbk popuchtioe sbigt did eot bhvk aujb iaphjt oe tbkehtioehc povkrty rhtk ie tbk ^bicippieks.

Tbird, tbk aktbodocofijhc jbhefk joapoeket is eot ekfcifi`ck. ôvkrty bhs iejrkhskd `y hsaujb hs 2 pkrjkethfk poiets duk to tbis joapoeket. Tbk ietkrprkthtioe og tbk aktbodocofijhc




00

joapoeket is scifbtcy trijmy. Tbk aktbodocofijhc joapoeket rkgckjts tbk jbhefks ie tbkquhetity og foods ht tbk ckvkc og tbk povkrty ciek. Tbkrkgork, ig tbk sthedhrds og civief ht tbkpovkrty ciek fo up ovkr tiak (k.f., `kjhusk og tbk iejoesistkejy ie tbk why povkrty cieks hrkdrhwe), povkrty foks up kvke wbke tbkrk is eo jbhefk ie tbk akhe hed distriùtioe ogiejoak ie tbk ^bicippieks. Bkejk, it is possi`ck tbht tbk aktbodocofijhc jbhefk joapoeket

rkgckjts h spurious jbhefk duk to aktbodocofijhc iejoesistkejy. It is hcso possi`ck, bowkvkr,tbht tbk poor bhvk systkahtijhccy iejrkhskd joesuaptioe og foods tbht hrk fkttief kxpkesivk.

Tbk chttkr possiìcity, bowkvkr, is uecimkcy to `k truk ie tbk ^bicippieks `kjhusk tbk poortypijhccy tked to sbigt hwhy groa foods tbht hrk fkttief rhpidcy kxpkesivk (Gulii 0>8:). Tbk

joaphrisoe og tbk jbhefks ie joesuaptioe povkrty () jhcjuchtkd `y ^rogkssor @hcishjhe

(skk @hcishjhe ]0>>:Q hed HD@ ]0>>9Q) hfhiest tbk –rhw‑ jbhefk ie povkrty rhtk () hed

tbk oek hdlustkd gor tbk aktbodocofijhc jbhefk ( ) hcso suffkst tbht tbk

aktbodocofijhc jbhefk joapoeket is iedkkd spurious. Hs skke ie Gifurk ;, tbk jbhefks ieour povkrty akhsurk witb tbk hdlustaket gor tbk aktbodocofijhc joapoeket (dhsbkd ciek) hrkjcoskr to tbk jbhefks ie @hcishjhe’s joesuaptioe povkrty rhtk (òcd ciek) tbhe tbosk witbouttbk hdlustaket (socid ciek). @kjhusk @hcishjhe usks joesuaptioe povkrty cieks tbht hrk

supposkd to `k joaphrh`ck ovkr tiak, our rksucts iedijhtk tbht tbk scow profrkss ie povkrtyrkdujtioe ie our povkrty akhsurk is phrtcy `kjhusk og tbk iejrkhsks ie tbk sthedhrds og civiefht tbk povkrty ciek. Tbkrkgork, hjtuhc povkrty rkdujtioe ahy bhvk `kke ghstkr tbhe wbhtGifurk 4 suffksts, oejk wk gix tbk sthedhrds og civief ht tbk povkrty ciek.

Gifurk ;< Joaphrisoe witb @hcishjhe’s Kstiahtk og Joesuaptioe ôvkrty

Zourjks< Hutbor ’s jhcjuchtioe `hskd oe Ghaicy Iejoak hed Kxpkediturk Zurvky (GIKZ) dhth= @hcishjhe (0>>:)= HD@(0>>9).

Hs disjusskd ie skjtioe 0.7, it is possi`ck to dkjoaposk tbk povkrty jbhefk ieto sixjoapoekets gor khjb rkfioe so tbht wk jhe pie dowe tbk iaporthet sourjks og povkrtyjbhefk. Th`ck ; sbows tbk rkfioehc dkjoapositioe rksucts gor povkrty rhtk gor 892; ‚0>>9,wbijb hrk jhcjuchtkd hs tbk sua og tbk dkjoapositioe rksucts gor tbk kifbt :-ykhr pkriods. @yjoestrujtioe, tbk chst row is tbk shak hs tbht ie Th`ck 4. Tbk chst jocuae og Th`ck ; is tbksua og hcc six joapoekets, wbijb jhe `k ietkrprktkd hs khjb rkfioe’s joetriùtioe to tbkjbhefk ie tbk ehtioehc povkrty rhtk. Tbkrkgork, aost rkfioes bhvk ahdk soak joetriùtioe totbk ehtioehc povkrty rkdujtioe, witb Pkfioe WI hed Pkfioe WII ahmief phrtijuchrcy chrfkjoetriùtioes.84 Bowkvkr, soak otbkr rkfioes, sujb hs HPAA, bhvk ekfhtkd soak og tbksk

84 Zkk Th`ck H8 ie tbk Hppkedix gor h dksjriptioe og tbk rkfioes.




0:

rkdujtioes. Tbis o`skrvhtioe is sticc truk wbke wk hdlust gor tbk AJ joapoeket. It sboucd hcso`k eotkd tbht kvkrytbief kcsk `kief kquhc, khjb joapoeket tkeds to `k chrfkr ie h`socutkvhcuk wbke tbk rkfioe is chrfk. Bowkvkr, our rksucts hrk eot drivke `y tbk sizk og tbk rkfioes,`kjhusk Pkfioe WI, Pkfioe WII, hed HPAA hrk eot phrtijuchrcy chrfk rkfioes.

Th`ck ; hcso sbows tbht tbkrk is su`sthetihc bktkrofkekity ie tbk why khjb rkfioe bhsjoetriùtkd to povkrty jbhefk ie tbk ^bicippieks. Hctboufb eoaiehc frowtb hed iegchtioe hrktbk chrfkst joapoekets ie h`socutk vhcuk, tbk iaphjt og rkhc frowtb (EF+IG) oe ehtioehcpovkrty vhriks quitk su`sthetihccy, rhefief groa -0.;2 ie Pkfioe WI to ->.>6 ie HPAA. Tbkahfeitudk og witbie-froup hed `ktwkke-froup iekquhcity hcso vhriks ovkr rkfioes. Vk giedtbht tbk witbie-froup rkdistriùtioe joapoeket bhs joetriùtkd to he iejrkhsk ie tbk povkrtyrhtk ie aost rkfioes, wbkrkhs tbk iaphjt og tbk `ktwkke-froup rkdistriùtioe joapoeket isquitk divkrsk. Vbick wk oecy disjusskd tbk six-why dkjoapositioe rksucts gor tbk povkrtyrhtk, tbk rksucts gor tbk povkrty fhp, povkrty skvkrity, hed Vhtts akhsurk, wbijb hrk rkportkdie Hppkedix D, hrk quhcithtivkcy siaichr.

Th`ck ;< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og ^ > `y Pkfioe

Pkfioe ^Z VP @P EF IG AJ

EJP ->.>7 ->.>0 ->.;: -7.8; ;.08 >.:6 -8.86

JHP ->.>7 >.08 >.84 -8.6; 8.:0 >.0> >.>;

Pkfioe I ->.89 >.00 >.09 -7.9: ;.0: >.24 ->.;;

Pkfioe II ->.86 >.:7 ->.>4 -4.2; :.6: >.:0 ->.77

Pkfioe III >.86 ->.06 >.77 -9.92 6.79 8.0> ->.;:

Pkfioe IW-H >.;> >.4> ->.40 -2.24 6.>7 >.77 ->.74

Pkfioe IW-@ >.80 ->.80 >.0: -:.47 0.;9 >.7> ->.>4

Pkfioe W ->.06 >.72 ->.82 -9.>8 6.00 >.4; -8.80

Pkfioe WI ->.84 >.:0 ->.00 -8>.20 2.0: >.74 -8.92

Pkfioe WII >.87 >.00 ->.67 -2.:8 7.69 >.89 -8.68

Pkfioe WIII ->.00 >.29 ->.72 -7.;: ;.80 >.;: ->.29

Pkfioe IR ->.>6 >.04 >.02 -4.>: :.>9 >.0: ->.07

Pkfioe R ->.8> >.07 >.00 -;.8; :.94 >.4; ->.:9

Pkfioe RI ->.>6 >.09 >.0; -;.70 4.86 >.78 ->.:7

Pkfioe RII >.:> >.;2 >.>6 -4.6: :.0: >.69 >.0:

HPAA ->.>9 ->.:4 8.:: -;.06 ;.0> ->.06 >.;6

Jhrhfh ->.88 >.;: >.>; -:.77 0.90 >.04 ->.>:

^bicippieks ->.02 4.47 >.76 -8>;.>9 20.6: 2.>; -9.4;



;. DIZJ[ZZIOE

Ie tbis phpkr, wk bhvk proposkd h aktbod og dyehaij povkrty dkjoapositioe tbht issu`pkriod-hdditivk hed tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistket. Our dkjoapositioe hehcysis joesistketcyietkfrhtks tbk joevketioehc dyehaij povkrty dkjoapositioe sujb hs Dhtt hed Phvhccioe (8990)hed froup-`hskd dkjoapositioe sujb hs Phvhccioe hed Buppi (8998). Our aktbod bhs hehdditioehc hdvhethfk ie tbht tbkrk hrk eo rksiduhc or ietkrhjtioe tkras. Vbick our aktbod

rkquirks tbk spkjigijhtioe og tbk phtb og jbhefk, wk bhvk providkd h prhjtijhc why toiapckaket tbk dkjoapositioe uedkr h skt og rkhsoeh`ck hssuaptioes.




04

Ie our kapirijhc hppcijhtioe to tbk ^bicippieks, wk joesidkrkd h six-why dkjoapositioe iewbijb tbk ehtioehc povkrty jbhefk is dkjoaposkd ieto popuchtioe sbigt, witbie-frouprkdistriùtioe, `ktwkke-froup rkdistriùtioe, eoaiehc frowtb, iegchtioe, hed aktbodocofijhcjbhefk joapoekets gor khjb og tbk 86 rkfioes ie tbk ^bicippieks.

Vk gied tbht eoaiehc frowtb hed iegchtioe hrk `y ghr tbk chrfkst joapoekets ie h`socutk vhcukie khjb rkfioe hed tbht tbk iaphjts og otbkr joapoekets hrk bktkrofkekous, wbijb iedijhtkstbht tbk hpproprihtk povkrty rkdujtioe pocijiks ahy vhry groa rkfioe to rkfioe. Gor kxhapck,tbk rksucts rkportkd ie Th`ck ; suffkst tbht soak rkfioes, sujb hs HPAA, woucd rkquirkfrowtb-kebhejief pocijiks to rkdujk povkrty kggkjtivkcy, wbkrkhs otbkr rkfioes, sujb hsPkfioe WIII, ahy ekkd pocijiks to iaprovk tbk iejoak distriùtioe witbie tbk rkfioe. Vk hcsogied tbht povkrty rkdujtioe ie tbk ^bicippieks bhs `kke scowkd su`sthetihccy `y worskeiefiekquhcity gor tbk pkriods 8922 ‚8998 hed 8994 ‚8996. Gor otbkr pkriods, tbk hpphrket scowprofrkss ie povkrty rkdujtioe whs aostcy `kjhusk og tbk chjm og rkhc kjoeoaij frowtb ùthcso phrtcy `kjhusk og tbk aktbodocofijhc jbhefk.

Ie tbis study, wk jbosk rkfioes hs h ueit og tbk froup gor kapirijhc iccustrhtioe, `kjhusk tbk^bicippieks is sphtihccy bktkrofkekous ie tkras og joesuaptioe phttkres, frowtb rhtk, hed

iegchtioe rhtk. Bowkvkr, our hehcysis jhe hcso `k hppcikd to h eua`kr og otbkr issuks `y usiefotbkr vhrih`cks hs h ueit og froup, sujb hs tbk ktbeij froups, tbk kdujhtioe og bouskbocdbkhd, tbk kapcoyaket sthtus or skjtor og tbk bouskbocd bkhd, hed tbk bouskbocd sizk. [sieftbksk vhrih`cks, wk jhe kxphed tbk sjopk og tbk sthedhrd povkrty progick hpprohjb. Tbht is,iestkhd og siapcy joaphrief tbk povkrty rhtk, povkrty fhp, hed povkrty skvkrity hjrossdiggkrket froups gor vhrious ykhrs, hs is doek ie tbk sthedhrd povkrty progick hpprohjb, usiefour aktbod, wk jhe dkjoaposk tbk jbhefk ie ehtioehc povkrty ieto vhrious joapoekets gorkhjb froup ie tbk popuchtioe. Bkejk, our dkjoapositioe aktbod jhe joapckaket hedkebhejk tbk uskgucekss og tbk povkrty progick hpprohjb.

Vbick wk jbosk to hppcy our aktbod to h dkvkcopief jouetry, it is hcso hppcijh`ck to povkrtyhehcysis ie dkvkcopkd jouetriks, wbkrk povkrty cieks hrk typijhccy drhwe skphrhtkcy gor khjb

bouskbocd jhtkfory hed dkgiekd hs h grhjtioe og akhe or akdihe iejoak. Tbkrkgork, kvke igkvkryoek’s iejoak is risief, povkrty ahy sticc iejrkhsk ig tbk iejoak ht tbk jketkr og tbkdistriùtioe risks ghstkr tbhe iejoaks ie tbk cowkr thic og tbk distriùtioe. [sief our aktbod(witb h scifbt aodigijhtioe), it is possi`ck to skphrhtk tbk kggkjts og iejrkhsief iejoak ht tbkòttoa hed aiddck oe povkrty.

It sboucd hcso `k eotkd tbht our aktbod doks eot ekjksshricy rkquirk hcc tbk joapoekets ogietkrkst to iedkpkedketcy vhry ovkr tiak. Gor kxhapck, ig iekquhcity dktkraieks frowtbtbroufb tbk projkss og buahe hed pbysijhc jhpithc hjjuauchtioe (k.f., Fhcor hed Aohv 0>>4)wbick is bkcd joesthet, wk woucd bhvk tbk goccowief rkchtioesbip iestkhd og, shy,

kquhtioe (2) ie Hssuaptioe 2< ⁄ gor soak guejtioe witb its dkgieitkietkfrhc groa to `kief . Ie h jhsk cimk tbis, povkrty jbhefk is joapcktkcy

dktkraiekd `y tbk jbhefk ie iejoak distriùtioe. Bowkvkr, it is sticc possi`ck to idketigy tbkfrowtb hed rkdistriùtioe joapoekets ie our hpprohjb, `kjhusk ^ropositioe 8 sticc bocds hed

tbus tbk frowtb joapoeket jhe `k joaputkd `y siapcy rkpchjief ⁄ `y iekquhtioe (7). Ziaichrcy, it is hcso possi`ck to joesidkr tbk kggkjts og dkaofrhpbij dividked `ykxpcijitcy aodkcief tbk rkchtioesbip `ktwkke dkaofrhpbij jbhrhjtkristijs og tbk popuchtioehed kjoeoaij frowtb.

Hs witb otbkr dkjoapositioe aktbods, our dkjoapositioe is dksjriptivk hed kssketihccy hehjjouetief kxkrjisk. Tbkrkgork, it doks eot ie fkekrhc dksjri`k tbk jhushc rkchtioesbip`ktwkke povkrty hed tbk joapoekets og ietkrkst. Bowkvkr, tbk disjussioe ie tbk prkjkdiefphrhfrhpb akhes tbht wk jhe potketihccy ahmk h jhushc iegkrkejk ig tbk uedkrcyiefrkchtioesbip `ktwkke joapoekets is meowe.8; Kvke wbke eo sujb rkchtioesbip is meowe, our

8; Eotk, tboufb, tbht wk hrk sticc hfeostij hòut tbk drivief gorjk og tbk jbhefk ie .




0;

dkjoapositioe sticc providks rkskhrjbkrs hed pocijy ahmkrs witb iegorahtioe tbht is uskguc goruedkrsthedief tbk sourjk og povkrty jbhefk hed gorauchtief povkrty rkdujtioe pocijiks.




07

PKGKPKEJKZ

Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem (HD@). 0>>;. ôvkrty ie tbk ^bicippieks< Iejoak, Hsskts, hed Hjjkss. Aheich< HD@.

———. 0>>9. ôvkrty ie tbk ^bicippieks< Jhusks, Joestrhiets, hed Opportueitiks. Aheich< HD@.

@hcishjhe, H.A. 0>>:. ôvkrty Joaphrisoe ie tbk ^bicippieks< Is Vbht Vk Meow hòut tbkôor Poùst? Ie Pkdujief ôvkrty ie Hsih< Kakrfief Issuks ie Frowtb, Thrfktief,hed Akhsurkaket, kditkd `y J.A. Kdaoeds. Jbkctkebha< Kdwhrd Kcfhr. pp. 896 ‚089.

@hyk, G.A. 0>>7. Frowtb, P kdistriùtioe hed ovkrty Jbhefks ie Jhakrooe< H ZbhpckyDkjoapositioe Hehcysis. Lourehc og Hgrijhe Kjoeoaiks 8;(4)< ;4: ‚;6>.

@krehcks, C.F.Z. 0>>9. Issuks oe tbk Oggijihc ôvkrty Kstiahtioe Aktbodocofy ie tbk^bicippieks< Joaphrhìcity og Kstiahtks hjross Zphjk hed ovkr T iak. Disjussioe^hpkr Zkriks 0>>9-86. ^bicippiek Iestitutk gor Dkvkcopaket Ztudiks

Jbhmrhvhrty, Z.P. 892:. H Ekw Iedkx og ôvkrty. Ahtbkahtijhc Zojihc Zjikejks 7< :>6 ‚:8:.

Jchrm, Z., P. Bkaaief, hed D. [cpb. 8928. Oe Iedijks gor tbk Akhsurkaket og ovkrty. Kjoeoaij Lourehc 98(:70)< ;8; ‚;07.

Dhtt, F., hed A. Phvhccioe. 8990. Frowtb hed Pkdistriùtioe Joapoekets og Jbhefks ieôvkrty Akhsurks< H D kjoapositioe witb Hppcijhtioes to @rhzic hed Iedih ie tbk892>s. Lourehc og Dkvkcopaket Kjoeoaijs :2< 06; ‚09;.

Dkhtoe, H., hed W. Mozkc. 0>>;. Dhth hed Dofah< Tbk Frkht Iedihe ôvkrty Dk`htk. Vorcd@hem Pkskhrjb O`skrvkr 0>(0)< 866 ‚899.

Gostkr, L., L. Frkkr, hed K. Tbor`kjmk. 8924. H J chss og Dkjoaposh`ck ôvkrty Akhsurks.

Kjoeoaktrijh ;0(:)< 678 ‚677.

Gostkr, L.K., hed H.G. Zborrojms. 8998. Zu`froup Joesistket ôvkrty Iedijks. Kjoeoaktrijh;9(:)< 726 ‚6>9.

Gulii, T. 0>8:. Iaphjt og Good Iegchtioe oe ôvkrty ie tbk ^bicippieks. Good ôcijy :9< 8: ‚06.

Fhcor, O., hed O. Aohv. 0>>4. Groa ^bysijhc Jhpithc to Buahe Jhpithc< Iekquhcity hed tbk^rojkss og Dkvkcopaket. Pkvikw og Kjoeoaij Ztudiks 68(4)< 8>>8 ‚8>07.

Froothkrt, J. 899;. Ztrujturhc Jbhefk hed ôvkrty ie Hgrijh< H Dkjoapositioe Hehcysis gorJotk d’Ivoirk. Lourehc og Dkvkcopaket Kjoeoaijs 46< :6; ‚4>8.

Lhie, C.P., hed Z.D. Tkeducmhr. 899>. Tbk P ock og F rowtb hed Distriùtioe ie tbk

O`skrvkd Jbhefk ie Bkhd-Jouet Phtio-Akhsurk og ôvkrty< H DkjoapositioeKxkrjisk gor Iedih. Iedihe Kjoeoaij Pkvikw 0;(0)< 87; ‚0>;.

Mhmwhei, E. 892>. Oe h Jchss og ôvkrty Akhsurks. Kjoeoaktrijh 42(0)< 4:6 ‚447.

———. 0>>>. Oe Akhsurief Frowtb hed Iekquhcity Joapoekets og ôvkrty witb Hppcijhtioeto Tbhiched. Lourehc og Xuhetithtivk Kjoeoaijs 87(8), 76 ‚2>.

Mhmwhei, E., hed M. Zu``hrho. 899>. Purhc ^ ovkrty hed I ts H cckvihtioe ie Iedih.Kjoeoaij hed ôcitijhc Vkkmcy 0;(8:)< H0 ‚ H87.

Mockeimov, Z., hed H. Zborrojms. 0>>;. H Dkjoapositioe Hehcysis og Pkfioehc ôvkrty iePussih. Pkvikw og Dkvkcopaket Kjoeoaijs 9(8)< 0; ‚47.

Chelouw, L.O., hed ^. Chelouw. 0>>8. Bow to Joaphrk Hppcks hed Orhefks< ôvkrty

Akhsurkaket @hskd oe Diggkrket Dkgieitioes og Joesuaptioe. Pkvikw og Iejoak hedVkhctb 46(8)< 0; ‚48.




06

Ahhsouai, K., hed W. Ahbaoudi. 0>8:. Poùst F rowtb-Kquity Dkjoapositioe og Jbhefk ieôvkrty< Tbk Jhsk og Irhe (0>>> ‚0>>9). Xuhrtkrcy Pkvikw og Kjoeoaijs hed Giehejk;;< 072 ‚069.

Ehtioehc Zthtistijhc Joordiehtioe @ohrd (EZJ@). 0>88. Oe tbk Pkgiekakets oe tbk Oggijihcôvkrty Kstiahtioe Aktbodocofy, tbk Zourjks og Diggkrkejks og tbk Oggijihc ôvkrtyZthtistijs hed tbk Ehtioehc Bouskbocd Thrfktief Zystka gor ôvkrty PkdujtioeKstiahtks, hed Otbkr Oggijihc ovkrty Zthtistijs-Pkchtkd Joejkres. Gor tbk rkjord. Hvhich`ck ht bttp<//www.esj`.fov.pb/heeouejk/GorTbkPkjord/8:Dkj0>88 povkrty.hsp

Omhaoto, A. 0>88. Zourjk Dkjoapositioe og Jbhefks ie Iejoak Iekquhcity< Tbk Ietkfrhc-@hskd Hpprohjb hed Its Hpproxiahtioe `y tbk Jbhiekd Zbhpcky-Whcuk Hpprohjb.Lourehc og Kjoeoaij Iekquhcity 9< 84; ‚828.

Phvhccioe, A., hed A. Buppi. 8998. Akhsurief Jbhefks ie ôvkrty< H Aktbodocofijhc JhskZtudy og Iedoeksih durief he Hdlustaket ^kriod. Vorcd @hem Kjoeoaij Pkvikw ;(8)<;6 ‚20.

Phvhccioe, A., hed Z. Jbke. 0>>:. Akhsurief ^ro-ôor Frowtb. Kjoeoaij Ckttkrs 62< 9: ‚99.

Zhbe, D.K., hed D.J. Ztigkc. 0>>>. ôvkrty Joaphrisoes ovkr Tiak hed hjross Jouetriks ie Hgrijh. Vorcd Dkvkcopaket 02(80)< 080: ‚08;;.

Zke, H. 8967. ovkrty< He Ordiehc Hpprohjb to Akhsurkaket. Kjoeoaktrijh 44(0)< 089 ‚00:.

Zoe, B.B., hed E. Mhmwhei. 0>>2. Fco`hc Kstiahtks og ^ro-ôor Frowtb. Vorcd Dkvkcopaket:7(7)< 8>42 ‚8>77.

Zoe, B.V. 0>>:. H Ekw ôvkrty Dkjoapositioe. Lourehc og Kjoeoaij Iekquhcity 8< 828 ‚826.

Thmhyhah, E. 8969. ôvkrty, Iejoak Iekquhcity, hed Tbkir Akhsurks< ^rogkssor Zke’s Hxioahtij Hpprohjb Pkjoesidkrkd. Kjoeoaktrijh 46(:)< 646 ‚66;.

Tsui, M. 8997. Frowtb-Kquity Dkjoapositioe og h Jbhefk ie ôvkrty< He Hxioahtij Hpprohjb.

Kjoeoaijs Ckttkrs ;>< 486 ‚40:.

Vhtts, B.V. 8972. He Kjoeoaij Dkgieitioe og ôvkrty. Ie Oe [edkrsthedief ôvkrty, kditkd`y D.^. Aoyeibhe. Ekw Yorm< @hsij @ooms. pp. :87 ‚:09.

\bkef, @. 899:. He Hxioahtij Jbhrhjtkrizhtioe og tbk Vhtts ôvkrty Iedkx. Kjoeoaijs Ckttkrs 40< 28 ‚27.




02

H^^KEDIR

H. Dkthics og Dhth hed ôvkrty Akhsurkaket

Ie tbk oggijihc aktbodocofy, tbk povkrty cieks hrk skt ht tbk ckvkc wbkrk oek jhe shtisgy soak`hsij eutritioehc rkquirkakets hed akkt soak eoe-good ekkds. Tbk aktbodocofy to jhcjuchtktbk povkrty ciek, bowkvkr, bhs `kke rkviskd tbrkk tiaks< ie 8990, 0>>:, hed 0>88.8 Tbkoggijihc povkrty sthtistijs `hskd oe tbk 8990 hed 0>>: rkvisioes hrk hvhich`ck gor 892; ‚0>>>hed 0>>> ‚0>>7, rkspkjtivkcy. Tbosk `hskd oe tbk 0>88 rkvisioe hrk jurrketcy hvhich`ck gor8998, 0>>:, 0>>7, hed 0>>9.

Vk hdopt tbk 0>88 rkvisioe witb soak aodigijhtioes. @kjhusk povkrty cieks `hskd oe tbk8990 rkvisioe hrk hvhich`ck oecy ht tbk rkfioehc ckvkc, wk usk tbk rkfioehc (hed eot proviejihc)povkrty ciek gor hcc ykhrs. Gurtbkr, wk rkjhcjuchtk tbk hffrkfhtk iejoak gor hcc roueds og tbkGhaicy Iejoak hed Kxpkediturk Zurvky (GIKZ) `kjhusk tbkrk whs h aieor iejoesistkejy ietbk dkgieitioe og iejoaks. Hs h rksuct, tbk povkrty sthtistijs uskd ie our study hrk eot kxhjtcy

tbk shak hs tbk oggijihc sthtistijs. Bowkvkr, tbksk aodigijhtioes bhvk cittck iaphjt oe tbkrksuctief povkrty sthtistijs.

To o`thie tbk povkrty cieks gor khrcikr ykhrs, wk girst jhcjuchtk tbk rhtk og jbhefk ie povkrtyciek `ktwkke two joetifuous survky roueds gor khjb rkfioe. Vbke aork tbhe oek rhtk ishvhich`ck gor h fivke pkriod, wk usk tbk bhraoeij akhe gor tbht pkriod. @kjhusk soakrkfioes did eot kxist ie khrcikr ykhrs, wk iestkhd usk tbk rhtk gor tbk isched froup to wbijb tbkrkfioe `kcoefs. [sief tbksk rucks, wk kxtrhpochtk povkrty cieks gor khrcikr ykhrs, wbijb hrkprksketkd ie Th`ck H8.

To jhrry out tbk six-why dkjoapositioe, wk ekkd to dkgiek tbk skt og foods uskd ie tbkjhcjuchtioe og povkrty cieks. @hskd oe tbk hvhichìcity og dhth, wk skt L 1 8> hed usk tbkgoccowief 8> foods< (i) good, (ii) hcjoboc hed to`hjjo, (iii) jcotbief hed gootwkhr, (iv) bousief

hed uticity, (v) gureiturk, bouskbocd kquipaket, hed opkrhtioe, (vi) akdijhc jhrk,(vii) trhesporthtioe hed joaaueijhtioe, (viii) rkjrkhtioe, (ix) kdujhtioe, hed (x) aisjkcchekousfoods hed skrvijks. Tbk joesuaptioe kxpkediturk dhth ie GIKZ hrk hffrkfhtkd up to tbksk8> foods. Tbk joesuakr prijk iedkx (JÎ) dhth hrk hcso hffrkfhtkd up to tbis ckvkc usief tbkJÎ wkifbts.

Gor hcc tbk ykhrs kxjkpt 0>>9, tbk rkgkrkejk ykhr gor tbk JÎ dhth is ykhr 0>>>. @kjhusk wkjoucd oecy o`thie `hsk-0>>7 JÎ dhth gor 0>>9, wk siapcy auctipcy `hsk-0>>> JÎ gifurks gor0>>7 `y `hsk-0>>7 JÎ gifurks gor 0>>9 to o`thie he kstiahtk og `hsk-0>>> JÎ gifurks gor0>>9. Gor ykhrs `kgork 8922, tbk JÎ bhs oecy six typks og foods. Gor kxhapck, wk bhvk tbkJÎ dhth gor –good, hcjoboc, hed to`hjjo,‑ witbout tbk `rkhmdowe gor –good‑ hed –hcjoboc hedto`hjjo.‑ Tbkrkgork, wk hssuak tbht tbk JÎ jbhefk is tbk shak gor tbksk two jhtkforiks.

Vk hppcy h siaichr ruck gor otbkr hffrkfhtk jhtkforiks, too.Tbk prijk

og food ie rkfioe is thmke groa tbk heeuhc hvkrhfk JÎ gor food ie rkfioe

. @kjhusk tbk ùedcks og foods uedkrcyief tbk povkrty cieks hrk eot hvhich`ck, wk girst thmktbk hvkrhfk kxpkediturk sbhrk gor tbosk bouskbocds witbie 8>% og tbk povkrty ciek ie rkfioe

gor khjb survky ykhr. Tbke, auctipcyief it `y tbk povkrty ciek hed dividief it `y , wk o`thie

tbk quhetity og food ie rkfioe ht tbk povkrty ciek gor khjb survky ykhr.

8 Zkk Hsihe Dkvkcopaket @hem (0>>;) hed Ehtioehc Zthtistijhc Joordiehtioe @ohrd (0>88) gor tbk dkthics og tbksk

jbhefks.




09

Th`ck H8< Iejoak ôvkrty Cieks ie tbk ^bicippieks [skd gor Tbis Ztudy

Pkfioe Dksjriptioe og Pkfioe 892; 8922 8998 8994 8996 0>>> 0>>: 0>>7 0>>9

EJP Ehtioehc Jhpithc Pkfioe :,:7> 4,228 7,290 2,::; 8>,78: 80,26: 8:,6>4 87,426 89,2>0

JHP Jordicckrh Hdaieistrhtivk Pkfioe 0,779 :,4;7 ;,709 6,::: 2,760 8>,:;7 8>,248 80,967 87,800

Pkfioe I Icojos Pkfioe 0,999 :,90> 7,4>4 6,970 9,;84 88,;:7 88,2:; 84,:;> 86,672

Pkfioe II Jhfhyhe Whccky 0,67; :,776 ;,748 7,772 6,900 9,2>9 8>,0;> 80,080 8;,:>7

Pkfioe III Jketrhc Cuzoe :,807 4,0>6 7,;;9 6,2:> 9,;>8 88,247 80,6;7 8;,:64 82,928

Pkfioe IW-H JHCHPHP\OE :,>>0 :,20: 7,:29 6,;47 9,2;0 88,692 80,82> 84,024 86,669

Pkfioe IW-@ AIAHPO^H 0,4:8 :,>97 ;,864 7,88> 6,962 9,;;4 8>,:96 80,78> 8;,679

Pkfioe W @ijoc Pkfioe 0,902 :,;:: ;,444 6,>9: 2,249 8>,74> 88,;;9 8:,74; 86,847

Pkfioe WI Vkstkre Wishyhs 0,267 :,:99 ;,>8> 7,484 2,07: 9,7;: 9,699 80,4:0 87,>:7

Pkfioe WII Jketrhc Wishyhs :,>78 :,4:6 ;,860 ;,9;> 2,>6: 8>,8:: 88,422 84,472 86,242

Pkfioe WIII Khstkre Wishyhs 0,7;> :,>28 4,846 ;,0>8 6,>4: 2,40> 9,7>> 88,22; 8;,98>

Pkfioe IR \haòhefh ^keiesuch 0,664 0,922 ;,>>: ;,;6: 6,776 2,6:7 9,746 88,28> 8;,87>Pkfioe R Eortbkre Aiedheho 0,66> :,;:: ;,>07 7,0>8 2,8;7 9,896 8>,0>> 80,926 87,;72

Pkfioe RI Dhvho Pkfioe 0,97; :,977 ;,:00 7,76> 2,;40 9,9>6 8>,6:8 8:,479 86,>4>

Pkfioe RII ZOJJZMZHPFKE 0,2;> :,082 ;,728 7,978 2,702 9,7;6 8>,:72 80,;:> 8;,670

Jhrhfh Jhrhfh Pkfioe 0,9:2 :,;2; ;,472 7,7:6 2,;9; 8>,>:9 8>,462 80,9:; 87,2;2

HPAA Hutoeoaous Pkfioe ie AusciaAiedheho 0,;77 :,8:> 4,66; ;,796 6,8:7 2,28> 9,79: 80,:;2 87,::4

Eotk< ovkrty cieks hrk kxprksskd hs tbk heeuhc bouskbocd iejoak pkr jhpith ie bicippiek pksos.

Zourjk< Hutbor ’s jhcjuchtioe `hskd oe povkrty cieks pu`cisbkd ie Ehtioehc Zthtistijs Oggijk (EZO) wk`phfks hedpu`cijhtioes.

@. ^roogs og ^ropositioes

^roog og ^ropositioe 8< Eotk girst tbht ⁄⁄ bocds. Tbkrkgork, usief tbk jbhefk og

vhrih`cks, wk bhvk ( ) gor hcc . [sief tbis hed `kjhusk tbk

povkrty jbhefk `ktwkke hed jhe `k writtke hs tbk ietkfrhc og tbk tiak dkrivhtivk og, wk jhe ahmk tbk goccowief trhesgorahtioe<

8 8

> >> 8

>

d ( ) d( ) d ( ) ( )d d

d d

t t z

t t

A t A t t t f y z g y t y t

t t

8 8

> >> >

( ) dd d ( ) ( )d d

d

t z t z

t t

y g y t z f y t f y z g y t y t

z t z t

> 8 > 8( ) ( ) PD FP

A t t A t t (@8)

wbkrk tbk tbird ciek goccows groa tbk jbhie ruck. It is jckhr groa kquhtioe (@8) tbht { } is h povkrty dkjoapositioe. Tbk tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy hedsu`pkriod hdditivity goccow iaakdihtkcy groa tbk `hsij propkrtiks og ietkfrhcs.

^roog og ^ropositioe 0< @y skttief hed usief ietkfrhtioe `y phrts ie kquhtioe (0), wkbhvk<

88

>( ( ) ) ( )d

z

^ G z G y y z (@0)




:>

Ckt us writk tbk pro`hìcity dkesity guejtioe gor `y . Tbke, eotief tbht wk bhvk gor tbk povkrty rhtk akhsurk hed su`stitutief kquhtioes (6) hed (2) ie kquhtioe (;), wk bhvk<

88

>>

8 > 8 >

> 8>

8 >8 >

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ) d d d

t z z PD

c t z

g y t g y t G z t G z t A t t y t z

t t z z

8 8 > > 8 8 > >8 8 > >8 8 8 8

8 >

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ^ ^ ^ ^ z z z z z z z z G G G G

z z

(@:)

wbkrk tbk skjoed hed tbird cieks goccow groa tbk jbhefk og vhrih`cks hed kquhtioe (@0),

rkspkjtivkcy. Tbk rksuct gor goccows iaakdihtkcy groa tbis.

^roog og ^ropositioe :< Tbk proog is siaichr to tbht og ^ropositioe 0. Ckt `k tbk

pro`hìcity dkesity guejtioe og ht tiak , wbijb shtisgiks . Tbkrkgork, tbkVhtts povkrty akhsurk shtisgiks tbk goccowief rkchtioesbip<

>

( ( ) ) (ce ce ) ( )d ( ) ( )d z

V G t z z y g y t y t

( ) ( )t

( )d ( )dt t

(@4)

wbkrk tbk girst tkra ie tbk tbird ciek drops `kjhusk gor hcc hed .

Diggkrketihtief kquhtioe (88) `y hed hed usief , wk bhvk<

8 >

8 >

( ) ( )d ( )

d

g y t k

t t t

(@;)

Tbkrkgork, `y , kquhtioes (@4) hed (@;), hed tbk jbhefk og vhrih`cks, wk bhvk tbkgoccowief rksuct<

8 8

> >

( ) ( )8 >

> 8>

8 >

( ) ( )d ( )( ) d d d d

d

t z t t t PD

cc t t

g y t A t t y t t

t t t

8 8

> >

8 > 8 >

8 > 8 >

( ( )) ( ( )) ( ) ( )d d

t

t

t t t

t t

8 > 8 >8 8 > >

8 >

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )V V V V z z z z G G G G

(@7)

provief kquhtioe (8:). Kquhtioe (84) iaakdihtkcy goccows groa tbis.

^roog og ^ropositioe 4< Tbk proog is siaichr to tbht og ^ropositioe 8. Girst, `y

∘

⁄ , wk bhvk tbk goccowief rkchtioesbip<

8 8

d dˇdd d 8 8ˇ ˇ ˇ

d d d d dˇ ˇ ˇ

f f f f f f f f L L l l l l

f f f l l

q p p q z z z

t t t t t

(@6)




:8

Eow, joesidkr tbk tiak-dkrivhtivk og <

>

ˇ

>

ˇ ˇ

> >

ˇ

>

d ( ) d( ) ( )d

d d

ˇ

d ˇ ˇ ˇ( ) ( )d

d ˇ

ˇ ˇ( )ˇ ˇd ( )ˇ ˇ ˇ ˇ( )d ( ) d

d ˇ ˇ

ˇdˇ

d ˇ ˇ

f

f

f f

f

z f f

f f

z f f

f f

f f

z z f f

f f f

z f

f f

A t yw t f g y t y

t t z

yw t f y t y g t z

y t w t y y g f y t y w t f y g

t t z z

y f

z z

d ˇ

ˇ ˇ( )dd

f z

y t y g t

Zu`stitutief kquhtioe (@6) ie tbk kquhtioe hòvk hed ietkfrhtief tbk kquhtioe hòvk ovkr ] Q, wk o`thie ∘ , provief tbht { } is h povkrty dkjoapositioe.Tbk tiak-rkvkrsioe joesistkejy hed su`pkriod hdditivity goccows iaakdihtkcy groa tbk

propkrtiks og ietkfrhtioe.

J. Tkjbeijhc Hppkedix gor Gooteotk 88

Ie tbis skjtioe, wk dksjri`k tbk iapckakethtioe og euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe gor disjusskdie Gooteotk 88. To siapcigy tbk prkskethtioe, wk dkeotk tbk kxprkssioe ie tbk squhrk `rhjmkt

ie kquhtioe (7) `y . Vk hpproxiahtk tbis `y gor

, wbkrk

hed . Tbke, ckttief

, wk bhvk<

0

8

> 8>

88 >> 8

>

88 >>

d d( ) d ( )

d d( ) ( )

( )8

` d

`

d

z z I t t I I d

t I I d z z

d I d I z z

Vk usk tbis gorauch gor tbk jhcjuchtioe og tbk ietkfrhc ovkr tbk girst ietkrvhc.

D. Hdditioehc Th`cks

Th`ck D8 providks vhrious typks og krrors disjusskd ie Gooteotk 80. Ie tbk tbird jocuae,

, wk thmk tbk h`socutk diggkrkejk `ktwkke tbk dirkjt jhcjuchtioe og kquhtioe (9) hed itsjouetkrphrt o`thiekd y euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe usief kquhtioe (;). Tbk gourtb jocuae fivks tbkh`socutk diggkrkejk `ktwkke tbk o`skrvkd jbhefk ie hed tbk sua og rkdistriùtioe hedfrowtb joapoekets o`thiekd groa euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe. Tbk gigtb, sixtb, hed skvketbjocuaes hrk tbk jorrkspoedief diggkrkejks gor , , hed , rkspkjtivkcy. Tbk chst gourjocuaes hrk tbk h`socutk diggkrkejk `ktwkke tbk o`skrvkd jbhefk hed tbk sua og sixjoapoekets o`thiekd `y euakrijhc ietkfrhtioe gor vhrious povkrty akhsurks.

Th`ck D0 sbows tbk kggkjt og `hedwidtb oe tbk povkrty akhsurks hed dkjoapositioe rksucts,wbkrk –Dirkjt‑ rkgkrs to tbk dirkjt jhcjuchtioe tbht doks eot rkcy oe mkrekc dkesity kstiahtioe.Vk skk tbht tbk povkrty kstiahtks witb our `kejbahrm `hedwidtb og hrk siaichr totbk dirkjt jhcjuchtioe rksucts.

Th`cks D:, D4, hed D; hrk tbk shak hs Th`ck 4, kxjkpt tbht wk usk , , hed iestkhd og hs tbk povkrty akhsurk. Ziaichrcy, Th`cks D7, D6, hed D2 hrk tbk shak hs Th`ck ; kxjkptgor tbk povkrty akhsurk uskd.




:0

Th`ck D8< Whrious Typks og Krrors

892; 8922 ->.>>0 ->.>>0 >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> ->.>>2 >.>>7 >.>>; >.>8;

8922 8998 >.>>: >.>>: >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> >.>88 >.>>; >.>>; >.>88

8998 8994 >.>>8 >.>>8 >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> ->.>08 ->.>>9 ->.>>9 ->.>04

8994 8996 >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> >.>8; >.>>: >.>>4 >.>>9

8996 0>>> ->.>>4 ->.>>: >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> ->.>>9 >.>>> >.>>> ->.>>8

0>>> 0>>: >.>>4 >.>>: >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> >.>>7 >.>>> >.>>> >.>>>

0>>: 0>>7 ->.>>4 ->.>>4 >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> ->.>>4 ->.>>0 ->.>>0 ->.>>4

0>>7 0>>9 >.>>8 >.>>8 >.>>> >.>>> >.>>> ->.>>; ->.>>8 ->.>>8 ->.>>4

Hcc pkriods ->.>>8 ->.>>8 ->.>>8 >.>>> ->.>>8 ->.>87 >.>>0 >.>>8 >.>>8

Eotk< Hcc tbk krrors hrk kxprksskd ie pkrjkethfk poiets.


Th`ck D0< Ciekhr hed Cof-Ciekhr Dkjoapositioe uedkr Whrious @hedwidtbs

Eotk< , , hed hrk kxprksskd ie pkrjkethfk hed , kq. (9), hed kq. (8:) hrk ie pkrjkethfk poiets.


@hedwidtb kq. (9) kq. (8:)

892; 8922 Dirkjt :;.2: 88.80 4.28 8;.>; -:.>; -0.20 -0.20

892; 8922 `1>.>>; :;.20 88.80 4.28 8;.>; -:.>7 -0.2: -0.2:

892; 8922 `1>.>8> :;.2: 88.8: 4.20 8;.>2 -:.>6 -0.20 -0.20

892; 8922 `1>.>8; :;.20 88.84 4.24 8;.88 -:.>; -0.62 -0.62

8922 8998 Dirkjt :0.62 9.77 :.97 80.62 >.>; -:.87 -:.87

8922 8998 `1>.>>; :0.67 9.77 :.97 80.62 >.>2 -:.84 -:.84

8922 8998 `1>.>8> :0.67 9.77 :.96 80.2> >.>2 -:.8; -:.8;

8922 8998 `1>.>8; :0.67 9.72 :.92 80.2: >.>6 -:.87 -:.87

8998 8994 Dirkjt :0.24 9.29 4.86 8:.0; -4.82 -0.40 -0.40

8998 8994 `1>.>>; :0.2; 9.29 4.86 8:.07 -4.0> -0.47 -0.47

8998 8994 `1>.>8> :0.24 9.9> 4.82 8:.02 -4.08 -0.49 -0.49

8998 8994 `1>.>8; :0.2: 9.90 4.0> 8:.:0 -4.08 -0.49 -0.49

8994 8996 Dirkjt 02.77 2.44 :.;8 88.04 -0.76 -2.47 -2.47

8994 8996 `1>.>>; 02.7; 2.44 :.;8 88.0; -0.79 -2.42 -2.42

8994 8996 `1>.>8> 02.7: 2.4; :.;0 88.06 -0.72 -2.46 -2.46

8994 8996 `1>.>8; 02.70 2.46 :.;4 88.:8 -0.79 -2.46 -2.47

8996 0>>> Dirkjt 0;.99 6.7> :.88 8>.>4 >.28 >.92 >.92

8996 0>>> `1>.>>; 0;.97 6.7> :.80 8>.>; >.24 >.92 >.92

8996 0>>> `1>.>8> 0;.9; 6.78 :.8: 8>.>2 >.2; >.92 >.92

8996 0>>> `1>.>8; 0;.94 6.7: :.8; 8>.8: >.26 >.96 >.96

0>>> 0>>: Dirkjt 07.28 6.20 :.82 8>.:8 -0.;; -8.>0 -8.>0

0>>> 0>>: `1>.>>; 07.2> 6.20 :.82 8>.:0 -0.;: -8.>8 -8.>8

0>>> 0>>: `1>.>8> 07.2> 6.2: :.0> 8>.:4 -0.;8 -8.>> -8.>>

0>>> 0>>: `1>.>8; 07.28 6.2; :.00 8>.:9 -0.;8 -8.>8 -8.>8

0>>: 0>>7 Dirkjt 04.0; 6.>7 0.9> 9.:; 0.>0 8.6: 8.6:

0>>: 0>>7 `1>.>>; 04.06 6.>6 0.9> 9.:7 8.99 8.6> 8.6>

0>>: 0>>7 `1>.>8> 04.09 6.>2 0.98 9.:9 8.92 8.68 8.68

0>>: 0>>7 `1>.>8; 04.:> 6.8> 0.9: 9.4: 8.92 8.6: 8.6:

0>>7 0>>9 Dirkjt 07.06 6.;9 :.>: 9.9: >.>2 8.>4 8.>4

0>>7 0>>9 `1>.>>; 07.07 6.;9 :.>4 9.94 >.88 8.>6 8.>6

0>>7 0>>9 `1>.>8> 07.06 6.7> :.>; 9.96 >.>9 8.>2 8.>2

0>>7 0>>9 `1>.>8; 07.02 6.70 :.>6 8>.>8 >.>7 8.>2 8.>2




::

Th`ck D:< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og ^ 8 `y Tiak ^kriod

^Z VP @P EF IG AJ

892; 8922 >.>2 >.87 >.4: -6.8; :.6; 8.0; -8.46

8922 8998 ->.88 >.76 8.>4 -88.>6 2.27 >.24 >.0:

8998 8994 >.>9 ->.40 ->.06 -;.08 ;.8: ->.67 -8.44

8994 8996 ->.>4 0.>; >.;; -2.>: :.7; >.99 ->.24

8996 0>>> ->.88 >.88 >.>0 -:.>7 :.8: >.8: >.00

0>>> 0>>: ->.>6 >.40 -8.>> -8.4; 0.80 ->.66 ->.67

0>>: 0>>7 >.>7 ->.:4 ->.8> -0.66 :.07 >.4> >.;0

0>>7 0>>9 >.>0 ->.;2 ->.;6 -:.72 :.:2 8.>2 ->.:4

Hcc pkriods ->.>9 0.>7 >.88 -40.48 ::.02 :.86 -:.26



Th`ck D4< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og ^ 0 `y Tiak ^kriod

^Z VP @P EF IG AJ

892; 8922 >.>4 >.>0 >.04 -:.;9 8.29 >.;4 ->.27

8922 8998 ->.>; >.:9 >.;4 -;.4; 4.:7 >.40 >.08

8998 8994 >.>4 ->.8: ->.87 -0.;6 0.;0 ->.:; ->.7;

8994 8996 ->.>0 8.>0 >.07 -:.90 8.69 >.42 ->.:9

8996 0>>> ->.>4 >.>8 >.>8 -8.;> 8.;: >.>; >.>6

0>>> 0>>: ->.>: >.:> ->.;0 ->.6> 8.>4 ->.:7 ->.02

0>>: 0>>7 >.>: ->.07 ->.>2 -8.:; 8.;9 >.0> >.84

0>>7 0>>9 >.>8 ->.:4 ->.06 -8.6; 8.70 >.;8 ->.00

Hcc pkriods ->.>: 8.>8 >.>: -0>.20 87.:0 8.;> -0.>>



Th`ck D;< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og V `y Tiak ^kriod

^Z VP @P EF IG AJ

892; 8922 >.88 >.80 >.77 -8>.0; ;.:9 8.72 -0.09

8922 8998 ->.8; 8.>; 8.;0 -8;.68 80.;6 8.08 >.46

8998 8994 >.8: ->.;8 ->.48 -6.40 6.09 -8.>; -8.928994 8996 ->.>7 0.9> >.67 -88.:6 ;.86 8.4> -8.0>

8996 0>>> ->.84 >.8> >.>4 -4.:0 4.4: >.87 >.07

0>>> 0>>: ->.8> >.68 -8.47 -0.>4 :.>> -8.>6 ->.97

0>>: 0>>7 >.>9 ->.;9 ->.82 -:.9> 4.7> >.;6 >.;9

0>>7 0>>9 >.>0 ->.22 ->.69 -;.80 4.60 8.;8 ->.;;

Hcc pkriods ->.88 0.22 >.84 -7>.8; 46.86 4.48 -;.77






:4

Th`ck D7< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og ^ 8 `y Pkfioe


EJP ->.>8 ->.>0 ->.8: -8.48 8.0> >.>9 ->.09

JHP ->.>0 >.8; >.>8 ->.6; >.;2 >.>6 >.>4

Pkfioe I ->.>; >.87 >.80 -0.6: 0.>2 >.09 ->.8:Pkfioe II ->.>4 >.80 >.>> -8.;2 8.08 >.>9 ->.0>

Pkfioe II I >.>4 ->.>: >.00 -:.>2 0.:8 >.4> ->.8:

Pkfioe IW-H >.8: >.87 ->.86 -0.9: 0.:4 >.0; ->.00

Pkfioe IW-@ >.>4 ->.>2 >.8> -8.78 8.08 >.02 ->.>7

Pkfioe W ->.>2 >.09 ->.>9 -4.6; :.28 >.0; ->.;6

Pkfioe WI ->.>: >.0> ->.>6 -4.;: :.:2 >.09 ->.67

Pkfioe WII >.>; >.>; ->.:: -4.>7 :.:2 >.>8 ->.9>

Pkfioe WIII ->.>7 >.:9 ->.:8 -0.27 0.0: >.08 ->.4>

Pkfioe IR ->.>0 >.86 >.>9 -8.92 8.;: >.88 ->.80

Pkfioe R ->.>: >.>9 >.80 -0.7> 0.>; >.0> ->.86

Pkfioe RI ->.>0 >.8; >.88 -0.:0 8.60 >.0; ->.88

Pkfioe RII >.8> >.00 >.>: -0.>6 8.44 >.:0 >.>4

HPAA ->.>0 ->.89 >.:4 -8.4; 8.42 ->.>; >.88

Jhrhfh ->.>4 >.04 >.>; -8.68 8.:; >.8> >.>>

^bicippieks ->.>9 0.>7 >.88 -40.48 ::.02 :.86 -:.26



Th`ck D6< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og ^ 0 `y Pkfioe


EJP >.>> ->.>0 ->.>; ->.42 >.48 >.>: ->.88JHP ->.>8 >.>2 >.>> ->.:2 >.:> >.>: >.>0

Pkfioe I ->.>0 >.8> >.>7 -8.09 >.92 >.8: ->.>;

Pkfioe II ->.>0 >.>7 >.>8 ->.60 >.;; >.>4 ->.>2

Pkfioe II I >.>0 >.>> >.8> -8.:> >.96 >.86 ->.>;

Pkfioe IW-H >.>; >.>6 ->.>6 -8.06 8.>8 >.88 ->.8>

Pkfioe IW-@ >.>8 ->.>; >.>; ->.69 >.;9 >.84 ->.>4

Pkfioe W ->.>: >.87 ->.>; -0.;9 0.>6 >.8: ->.:>

Pkfioe WI ->.>8 >.>2 ->.>: -0.8> 8.;7 >.8: ->.:6

Pkfioe WII >.>0 >.>0 ->.87 -0.06 8.9> ->.>0 ->.;8

Pkfioe WIII ->.>0 >.82 ->.8; -8.4: 8.8> >.88 ->.08

Pkfioe IR ->.>8 >.>9 >.>4 -8.>2 >.24 >.>; ->.>7

Pkfioe R ->.>8 >.>4 >.>7 -8.4> 8.8> >.88 ->.8>

Pkfioe RI ->.>8 >.>9 >.>7 -8.82 >.22 >.8: ->.>4

Pkfioe RII >.>4 >.8> >.>0 -8.>; >.6: >.87 >.>>

HPAA ->.>8 ->.8> >.8: ->.;7 >.;2 ->.>0 >.>0

Jhrhfh ->.>0 >.80 >.>4 ->.94 >.64 >.>; >.>>

^bicippieks ->.>: 8.>8 >.>: -0>.20 87.:0 8.;> -0.>>






Th`ck D2< Zix-Vhy Dkjoapositioe og V `y Pkfioe


EJP ->.>8 ->.>4 ->.86 -8.67 8.;> >.88 ->.:6

JHP ->.>0 >.00 >.>8 -8.>9 >.2; >.8> >.>7

Pkfioe I ->.>6 >.0; >.86 -:.2> 0.29 >.4> ->.86Pkfioe II ->.>; >.86 >.>8 -0.82 8.76 >.80 ->.07

Pkfioe II I >.>7 ->.>: >.:> -4.88 :.>6 >.;: ->.86

Pkfioe IW-H >.86 >.00 ->.0: -:.9: :.8: >.:: ->.:8

Pkfioe IW-@ >.>; ->.8: >.84 -0.06 8.6> >.48 ->.8>

Pkfioe W ->.88 >.44 ->.8: -6.>0 ;.70 >.:7 ->.24

Pkfioe WI ->.>4 >.0; ->.>9 -7.0: 4.74 >.4> -8.>2

Pkfioe WII >.>7 >.>7 ->.46 -7.84 ;.80 ->.>0 -8.:2

Pkfioe WIII ->.>2 >.;4 ->.4: -4.>6 :.8; >.:> ->.;9

Pkfioe IR ->.>: >.04 >.88 -0.9; 0.:> >.8; ->.82

Pkfioe R ->.>4 >.88 >.86 -:.2; :.>: >.:8 ->.06

Pkfioe RI ->.>: >.0: >.87 -:.:4 0.42 >.:; ->.8;

Pkfioe RII >.8: >.09 >.>; -0.99 0.>6 >.46 >.>0

HPAA ->.>: ->.02 >.44 -8.22 8.90 ->.>7 >.80

Jhrhfh ->.>; >.:4 >.>9 -0.;4 0.>8 >.8; >.>>

^bicippieks ->.88 0.22 >.84 -7>.8; 46.86 4.48 -;.77



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Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application to the Philippines