DWAF (July 2004)

Managing Economic and Managing Economic and Demographic Information for Demographic Information for

ModellingModelling

Brendon Wolff-Piggott

Independent Specialist Consultant

DEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRYDEPARTMENT OF WATER AFFAIRS AND FORESTRY

User Group ForumUser Group Forum1 July, 20041 July, 2004

DWAF (July 2004)

1. Background

2. Opportunities

3. Current and envisaged systems

- Baseline information management

- Managing future estimates

4. Summary

Structure Structure

DWAF (July 2004)

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

DWAF (July 2004)

Information ManagementInformation Management in DWAF in DWAF

Management Decision-making

Source Information Processed Information

Source InformationSystems

Processed Information

Systems

External Data

Raw Data

Information Warehouse

CD: IM D: WRPS

DWAF (July 2004)

Minordams

Groundwater

Reservoir

SFRAs

Ecology

Irrigation

Urban

Industrial

Rural

Typical water resource systemTypical water resource system

Runoff

DWAF (July 2004)

Minordams

Groundwater

Reservoir

SFRAs

Ecology

Irrigation

Urban

Industrial

Rural

Study Identifies Additional InformationStudy Identifies Additional Information

Runoff

DWAF (July 2004)

OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES

DWAF (July 2004)

Baseline data sets exist e.g. Census Planning estimates of long-term economic and

demographic scenarios related to water use have been made

Detailed studies can provide additional info Water Services estimates current population

using the Census Useful for national and catchment strategy

modelling and planning

Opportunities Opportunities

DWAF (July 2004)

CURRENT AND ENVISAGED CURRENT AND ENVISAGED SYSTEMSSYSTEMS

DWAF (July 2004)

Current and Envisaged Systems Current and Envisaged Systems

SYSTEM STATUS

Economic Information System Maintenance

Planning Scenarios System Maintenance

Population IMS Business analysis

Projections IMS Preliminary Analysis

DWAF (July 2004)

Economic and Demographic IMSEconomic and Demographic IMSin the Modelling Frameworkin the Modelling Framework

DWAF (July 2004)

BASELINE BASELINE INFORMATION INFORMATION MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT

DWAF (July 2004)

Information collected for different purposes Often not easy to build on

– Different boundaries – Boundaries changes over time – Assumptions not stated

Relationship to catchments not in data

Issues to address Issues to address

DWAF (July 2004)

Information Sources Information Sources

SOURCE DETAIL (units)

Census (1996, 2001) 10’s of 1000’s

Water services 8 000

Planning 800

Magisterial districts (GGP) 350

Municipalities 250

DWAF (July 2004)

Example of Boundary Issues Example of Boundary Issues

Camperdown

Inanda

Umbumbulu

Pinetown

Ndwendwe

Durban

Richmond

New Hanover

Pietermaritzburg

Umlazi

Chatsworth

DWAF (July 2004)

Matching Different Information Matching Different Information

??

Census

Planning Estimates

Water ServicesInfo

DWAF (July 2004)

Proposed System Capabilities:Proposed System Capabilities:PopulationPopulation and Socio-economic and Socio-economic IMS IMS

Based on Census 2001 All data sets should be represented as

adjustments to the Census Metadata tracked for each data set Adjusted Census data aggregated as

needed Visual displays important for

comparison of data

DWAF (July 2004)

MANAGING FUTURE ESTIMATESMANAGING FUTURE ESTIMATES

DWAF (July 2004)

Managing future estimatesManaging future estimates

Review needed of Planning Estimates against Census 2001

Next census due in 2011 Sample surveys, expert workshops and

other methods should be identified Communication with other Directorates and

Departments should be supported

DWAF (July 2004)

20252015

20051995

3300000

3800000

4300000

4800000

5300000

1995 2005 2015 2025

Year

Wate

r U

se (

kl/d

ay)

LOW SCENARIO HIGH SCENARIO

Demographic and Economic Indicators

Planning EstimatesPlanning Estimates

DWAF (July 2004)

Proposed System Capabilities:Proposed System Capabilities:Population Projection IMSPopulation Projection IMS

Draws baseline population and socio-economics from PesIMS

Baseline population distributions “grown” to match estimated future totals (e.g. ASSA 2002 provincial results)

Future distributions then revised based on factors such as estimated future GGP, transportation network density etc.

“Scenario manager” to track all inputs to develop a future projection, and supports sensitivity analysis

Visual displays important Results stored in PesIMS

DWAF (July 2004)

Example Output 1Example Output 1National Scenarios of Population Growth (HIV/AIDS impact)National Scenarios of Population Growth (HIV/AIDS impact)

45000000

50000000

55000000

60000000

65000000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Low Scenario High Scenario Linear Projection

40000000

DWAF (July 2004)

Example Output 2Example Output 2Population Growth in CategoriesPopulation Growth in Categories

40000000

DWAF (July 2004)

SUMMARYSUMMARY

DWAF (July 2004)

Summary Summary

Several country-wide data sets exist Establishment of IMSs would provide common

basis for modelling/planning Results from more detailed studies could be

incorporated Two systems are envisaged to support

modelling dynamically Potential for greatly improved communication

and information management

DWAF (July 2004)

Work in progress – feedback Work in progress – feedback appreciated!appreciated!

DWAF (July 2004)

ENDEND