24
DryShips Inc. NASDAQ: “DRYS” George Economou, CEO Jefferies & Co. 4 th Annual Shipping Conference, New York, 25-26 September, 2007

DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc.NASDAQ: “DRYS”George Economou, CEO

Jefferies & Co.4th Annual Shipping Conference, New York, 25-26 September, 2007

Page 2: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 2

Forward Looking Statements

Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements, which are other than statements of historical facts.

The forward-looking statements in this release are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in our records and other data available from third parties. Although DryShips Inc. believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond our control, DryShips Inc. cannot assure you that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the strength of world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in charterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled and unscheduled drydocking, changes in DryShips Inc.'s operating expenses, including bunker prices, dry-docking and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, potential liability from pending or future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or acts by terrorists.

Risks and uncertainties are further described in reports filed by DryShips Inc. with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Page 3: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 3

IPO Vision

Capitalize fundamental industry change over next 3-4 years

Exposure to high spot charter rate employment

Consolidate sector; maintain average fleet age 10-20 years

Acquisition Criteria based on financial returns and market outlook

Use financial leverage and amortize with debt repayments

Maintain efficient vessel and company operations

Dividend policy of 20 cents per quarter

Adhere to S&O corporate governance standards

! Build a premiere drybulk company

IPO ROADSHOW PRESENTATION SLIDE

Page 4: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 4

155

28

1

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Pre-IPO, February 2005 Today, September 2007

Capesize Panamax Handymax/Supramax New Buildings

6 vessels

Avg. Age: 19.0 yrs

41 vessels

Avg. Age: 8.5 yrs

30 months after the IPO

Page 5: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 5

The “Experts” Opinion

“The spectacle of a room full of portfolio managers being led like lambs to slaughter.”

“…in any other business Economou would be dismissed as a disgraced junk bond salesman trying to float a bag of old ships…”

Kathryn M. Welling, Streebeat February 2005

Kathryn M. Welling, Streebeat February 2005

“… some of the offerings look likely to discredit the industry.”

March 18, 2005 Tradewinds

Page 6: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 6

NASDAQ: "DRYS" - Stock Performance since IPO

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2/3/2005 5/14/2005 8/22/2005 11/30/2005 3/10/2006 6/18/2006 9/26/2006 1/4/2007 4/14/2007 7/23/2007

And for the Investors Who Did Not Listen?

Initial shareholders and management own

about 47.5% of the Company and

have not sold a single share since

the IPO.

DryShips shares are up 386% since the IPO i.e. from $18 to $87.6 per share.

Page 7: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 7

But the “Experts” had to say more…

Kathryn M. Welling, Streebeat February 2005

“It does not take a rocket scientist to see that it is the private Economou family companies, again, that are making money in the deal by locking in profits on ships”

“… how is this … company … going to operate the 20 plus ship fleet …”

March 18, 2005 Tradewinds

“Among the first vessels DryShips planned to buy with the offering proceeds were six owned by Mr. Economou’s sister” “… in a business were the only real profits historically have come not from operations, but from timely asset sales!”

Page 8: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 8

Affiliate

George Economou’s Sister

Third Parties Selling 11 Vessels

Appendix – Acquisition of Identified Vessels

6 Vessels $192.0 MM

6 Vessels $197.8 MM

Pre-Delivery Fees and Expenses = $5.5 MM

11 Vessels $322.3 MM ($197.8 + $119.0 + $5.5)

5 Vessels $119.0 MM

IPO ROADSHOW PRESENTATION SLIDE

Page 9: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 9

“How can a company with 6 old vessels have a market capitalization of $800 million?”

Public Company CEO March 2005

“… DryShips is especially risky, as a careful scrutinizing of the company's SEC filings should be enough to turn any investor's hair white.”

September 1,2006 Motley Fool

“Reiterate Sell as Sustainability of Dividend is Questionable and Company Appears to be in Default of Bank Covenant?

March 16,2006 Retired Shipping Analyst

And the “Experts” went on!

Page 10: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 10

Market Cap

$1.68 billionGENCO

$1.98 billionDANAOS

$2.50 billionOSG

$3.09 billionDRYSHIPS

$3.67 billionFRONTLINE

$4.52 billionTEEKAY

Note: Closing prices as of 9/25/07

Page 11: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 11

Some got it right!

“I think what ‘s good about shipping is that you left the two bad decades of the 1980s and the 1990s behind; I think this is going to be a lot better.”

“Capacity Shortages may be alleviated marginally but we believe they are here to stay for the foreseeable future.”

“China’s underlying growth is still firm and there is minimal risk that government initiatives will lead to an imminent slowdown.”

George Economou Chief Executive Officer, DryShips Inc. December 2005

George Economou Chief Executive Officer, DryShips Inc. November 2005

Tradewinds 25 May2005

Page 12: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 12

So far in 07 the index has surpassed all previous record levels

Baltic Dry Index

Page 13: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 13

Port Congestion Remains High

Source: Industry sources. Figures based on mid-month situation.

Currently the combined Australian port delays are about 11 days.

Page 14: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 14

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003 -50

0

50

100

150

Japanese GDP Japanese Crude Steel Production

Source: Clarksons Research Studies and International Monetary Fund

! “Soft” or “Hard” landing? “No” landing at all

114112110Net Change

8.0%8.5%9.1%% Change

1,5451,4311,319GDP

2005P2004E2003($ in billions)

% C

hang

e

$MM

Metric Tons

Is China a Bubble?Absolutely Not!

IPO ROADSHOW PRESENTATION SLIDE

Page 15: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 15

Source: IMF, April 2007

764

712

792

1,132

1,773

2,127

2,231

2,244 (4)

2,792

4,557

12,455

2005

1,345

942

1,001

1,334

2,076

2,513

2,823

3,417 (3)

3,184

4,453

14,418

2008F

1,167

871

943

1,266

1,994

2,401

2,661

3,051 (4)

3,081

4,302

13,770

2007F

979

797

888

1,269

1,853

2,232

2,374

2,630 (4)

2,897

4,367

13,245

2006

592431Russia

618543India

681608Korea

994868Canada

1,7291,510Italy

2,0601,805France

2,1551,815United Kingdom

1,932 (6)1,641 (6)China

2,7442,444Germany

4,6084,235Japan

11,71210,960United States

20042003Country

Chinese GDP Development

$2.625 bln 2010 projection made in 04 was surpassed in 2006

From 6th largest global economy in 2004 poised to become 3rd in 2008 !!!

Page 16: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 16

Europe24%

Asia59%

Africa4%

N.America4%

M. East4%

Other2%

S.America3%

Coal28%Grain

11%

Minor Bulks36%

Iron Ore25%

Regional Breakdown ImportsCommodity Breakdown Trade

Seaborne Drybulk Trade – No “subprime” exposure

North America accounts account for only 4% of drybulk trade.

Asia accounts for 59% of drybulk imports.

Minor Bulks include: Steel Products, Ferrous Metals, Scrap, Fertilizer, Metallic ores ,Bauxite/Alumina, Non Metalic Minerals (salt), Cement / pet coke, Agricultural goods, forest products.

Page 17: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 17

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003 -50

0

50

100

150

Japanese GDP Japanese Crude Steel Production

Source: Clarksons Research Studies and International Monetary Fund

% C

hang

e

$MM

Metric Tons

Industrial Production Prospects

First phase of growth – sustained steel production after peak

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Japan Korea China

Years from BaseJapan Base Year = 1959Korea Base Year = 1980 China Base Year = 1995

Industrial ProductionJapan GDP, Steel Production

Page 18: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 18

Source: CEIC, CSA

Domestic Iron Ore Demand

Iron Ore imports to grow from 392 in 07 to 511 m tons in 10

China’s iron ore imports of 326 m tons in 2006 dwarfed Japan’s 134 m tons. In 2007 alone China will import an additional 66 m tons over 2006 - 50% of global production

C h i n a ' s I O a n d C o a l S u p p l y P r o j e c t i o n

7 09 2

1 1 1

1 4 8

2 0 8

2 7 5

3 2 6

3 9 2

4 5 0

4 8 65 1 1

5 4 1

2 3 1 1 1 1 1 9 2 6 3 85 4 6 5

7 89 4

1 0 8

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 F 2 0 0 8 F 2 0 0 9 F 2 0 1 0 F 2 0 1 1 FI O I m p o r t s ( F E 6 4 % ) C o a l I m p o r t s

m t o n s

Page 19: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 19

Fleet Expansion and Renewal

When all of the above mentioned acquisitions and disposals have taken place, DryShips’ fleet will include 46 drybulk carriers comprising 5 Capesize, 31 Panamax, 2 Supramax, 1 Handymaxand 7 newbuilding drybulk vessels, with a combined capacity of approximately 4.0 million deadweight tons, and an average age of 8.9 years well below the drybulk industry average.

Name Dwt Size BuiltExpected Delivery

Price (million $)

Avoca 76,500 Panamax 2004 1q08 69.5Saldahna 75,500 Panamax 2004 4q07 75.0Oregon 74,204 Panamax 2002 4q07 67.2Samatan 74,823 Panamax 2001 4q07 71.0Clipper Gemini 51,201 Supramax 2003 4q07 50.2VOC Galaxy 51,201 Supramax 2002 4q07 55.56 vessels 403,429 dwt 4.3 years old Total Price 332.8

Name Dwt Size BuiltExpected Delivery

Price (million $)

TBN 180,000 Capesize 2009 2q09 114.0TBN 180,000 Capesize 2009 4q09 105.5TBN 180,000 Capesize 2010 1q10 105.5TBN 82,000 Kamsarmax 2010 2q10 54.3TBN 82,000 Kamsarmax 2010 2q10 54.35 vessels 704,000 dwt Total Price 433.5

Name Dwt Size BuiltExpected Delivery

Price (million $)

Formentera 70,002 Panamax 1996 4q07 63.01 vessel 70,002 dwt Total Price 63.0

Second Hand Purchases

Disposals

Newbuildings

All of the newbuildingvessels are being acquired as re-sales from the sellers and delivery to DryShips shall be “back to back” with the delivery of the vessels to the sellers by the respective builder.

Page 20: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 20

Chartering Policy

As of today, for the remaining two quarters in 2007:

52%52%of vessel

operating days UNFIXED

We remain committed to implementing our previously stated chartering philosophy and to position more vessels to trade in the spot market on a voyage by voyage basis as the vessels are coming off previously concluded short-term charters.

For 2008: 97%97%

of vessel operating days

UNFIXED

3q07 4q07 2008Capesize Unfixed Days 25 313 1,767Capesize Spot TCE ?? ?? ??Capesize Spot Revenue ?? ?? ??

Panamax Unfixed Days 582 2,248 11,013Panamax Spot TCE ?? ?? ??Panamax Spot Revenue ?? ?? ??

Handymax Unfixed Days 0 82 793Handymax Spot TCE ?? ?? ??Handymax Spot Revenue ?? ?? ??

Total Unfixed Days 607 2,643 13,573

Fleet Spot Revenue ?? ?? ??

Capesize Fixed Revenue $26,858,582 $9,666,543 $1,368,760Panamax Fixed Revenue $79,565,789 $10,826,909 $6,891,555Handymax Fixed Revenue $2,737,060 $2,790,850 $8,235,000

Fleet Fixed Revenue $109,161,431 $23,284,302 $16,495,315

Total Revenue ?? ?? ??

Vessel OPEX (w/ Mng. Fees) $16,000,000 $16,000,000 $67,200,000G&A $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $8,400,000

Total Costs $18,000,000 $18,000,000 $75,600,000

EBITDA ?? ?? ??

Page 21: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 21

Focus on Shareholder Returns

Net Debt to

Book Capitalization 33%33%

(adj. for asset values)

IPO Proceeds (1q05): $251.3 million

CEO Proceeds (2q06): $56.5 million

Total Equity Raised: $307.8 million

Since inception,73% ROE

and43% ROCE

Page 22: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 22

Sep 4q07 Cal 08Capesize 135,000 148,750 112,250Panamax 71,100 77,375 59,000Supramax 57,500 60,875 49,125

FFA Forward Curve ($ per day)

Sep 4q07 Cal 08Capesize 100,000 100,000 90,000Panamax 55,000 55,000 45,000

Supramax 33,000 33,000 25,000

DryShips Spot Fleet Earnings Assumptions ($ per day)

EBITDA estimate:2008: $ 615 million

Significant Upside Potential

Page 23: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 23

Compelling Valuation

Peer Group consists of Diana, Eagle, Excel, Genco, Quintana

Source: Company Filings and Equity Research

Peer Group Comparison

13.3

10.6

112%

7.5

6.9

106%

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

P/E (07)

EV/EBITDA (07)

P/NAV

Peer Group Dryships

Page 24: DryShips Inc.dryships.irwebpage.com/files/dryshipsjefferies2007.pdfcharterhire rates and vessel values, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled

DryShips Inc. © 2007Page 24

Contacts

Visit our website at www.dryships.com

Investor Relations / Media:

Nicolas Bornozis

Capital Link, Inc. (New York)

Tel. 212-661-7566

E-mail: [email protected]