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Sea A SIA CHARTERERS’ FORUM Singapore 2 April 2007. Peter M. Swift INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington. CHARTERERS’ FORUM. OIL SHIPPING Fleet development Chartering today Future demand ?. Tanker fleet development. m dwt. No. Assumptions for period until 2009: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Sea ASIACHARTERERS’ FORUM
Singapore
2 April 2007
Peter M. Swift
INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Fleet development
Chartering today
Future demand ?
Tanker fleet developmentm dwtm dwt
0
92
184
276
368
460
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 P07 P08 P090
1,040
2,080
3,120
4,160
5,200
dwt
number
NoNo
Assumptions for period until 2009:Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)
Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt)
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec-9
2
Jun-9
3
Dec-9
3
Jun-9
4
Dec-9
4
Jun-9
5
Dec-9
5
Jun-9
6
Dec-9
6
Jun-9
7
Dec-9
7
Jun-9
8
Dec-9
8
Jun-9
9
Dec-9
9
Jun-0
0
Dec-0
0
Jun-0
1
Dec-0
1
Jun-0
2
Dec-0
2
Jun-0
3
Dec-0
3
Jun-0
4
Dec-0
4
Jun-0
5
Dec-0
5
Jun-0
6
Dec-0
6
95/105,000 dwt
150,000 dwt
280,000 dwt
40/45,000 dwt
Source: Fearnleys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Handy
Chem/Spec)
Panamaxes
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
1993 and earlier sizes except
VLCCs were defined differently
Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Others/NK
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Taiwan
Korea
China
Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt)
Years
6
8
10
12
14
16
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Double-hull percentage rising steadily
%
6
22
5159
67 68 73 76 79 82 85
94
78
4941
33 32 27 24 21 18 15
0
20
40
60
80
1001
99
1
19
97
En
d 0
2
En
d 0
3
En
d 0
4
En
d 0
5
En
d 0
6
En
d 0
7
En
d 0
8
En
d 0
9
En
d 1
0
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share* :
* Assumes
phase out
according to
regulations
(rounded
upwards, 25
years after 2010
.
(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010
m dwtm dwt
Assumptions :MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010.DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SHuntil 25 years)
EU + no SH after 2010
OPA90
Conversions to Double Hulla further “uncertainty”
Built 10-30, 000 dwt
30-52, 000 dwt
60-72, 000 dwt
90-113, 000 dwt
(incl 6 obos)
120-148, 000dwt
VLCCs TOTAL
1970s 3 2 0 0 0 0 5
1980-1984
8 36 9 1 0 0 54
1986-1989
11 12 0 3 3 1 30
1990-1998
2 9 1 18 2 2 34
TOTAL 24 59 10 22 5 3 123
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Chartering today
Oil import by VLCCs - share of double hull
Source : Fearnleys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Atlantic
Far East Others
%
Average
Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull
%
Source : Fearnleys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Atlantic
Far East Others
Average
Oil import by Aframaxes - share of double hull
%
Source : Fearnleys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Atlantic Far East Others
Average
Based on figures from Fearnleys
Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Atlantic Far East Others
Average
Source : Fearnleys
Oil export by Aframaxes - share of double hull
%
Source : Fearnleys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
AG/Red Sea NE/A Africa
Caribs N Sea
Others
Average
Period contracts of one year and above
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Unknown
10,000-49,999 dwt
50,000-99,999 dwt
100,000-199,999 dwt
Above 200,000 dwt
No.
Year No.Average
ageAverage period
2000 144 9.5 1.37
2001 218 8.5 2.39
2002 221 7.3 1.87
2003 108 8.7 1.96
2004 126 8.7 2.44
2005 160 5.1 2.90
2006 198 6.2 2.60
*2007 70 5.3 2.30
*Projection 2007: 305 contractsSource: INTERTAKO
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Future demand ?
India and China – growth markets
Asia leads tanker demand rise
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Tonnage Supply & Demand ForecastsAverage Annual Growth 2007-2009
Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners
Supply Demand
VLCC 9.2% 3.3%
Suezmax 7.3% 2.1%
Aframax 9.6% 0.5%
Coated Aframax 4.4% 1.3%
THANK YOU
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www.shippingfacts.comwww.maritimefoundation.com
INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington