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1 Fortum Corporation Kari Kautinen, Vice President M&A Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010

Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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Page 1: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

1

Fortum Corporation Kari Kautinen, Vice President M&A

Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A

Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010

Page 2: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

2

Fortum Corporation

Power sector reform in Russia

Fortum’s M&A in Russia

Page 3: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

3

A leading Nordic Power and Heat company

• Listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1998• Approximately 90,000 shareholders• Among the most traded shares in Helsinki

stock exchange• Market cap ~17 billion euros

Foreign investors 30.5%Finnish State 50.8%

Other Finnish investors 8.9%

Households 7.1% Financial and insurance institutions 2.7%

Fortum’s shareholders30 April 2010

• Dividend in 2009 EUR 1.00 per share, in total ~EUR 0.9 billion

• Dividend policy of 50-60% payout of previous year's results on the average

Total ~ 6,853 MEUR

1999 2001 20032000 2002 2004

0.18 0.23 0.26 0.310.42

0.58

2005

1.12

Dividend per shareEUR

0.13

1998

0.58

0.54

2006

1.26

0.73

0.53

2007

1.35

0.77

0.58

2008

1.00

103% 78% 58%

1.00

200968%

Payout %

72%

Page 4: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

4

TGC-1 (Fortum owns >25% of shares)Power generation ~24 TWh total- Hydro 12 TWh- Thermal 12 TWhHeat sales 30 TWh total

OAO Fortum Power generation 16.0 TWhHeat sales 25.6 TWh

Russia

PolandHeat sales 3.7 TWh Electricity sales 20 GWh

Baltic countriesHeat sales 1.3 TWhElectricity sales 0.1 TWhDistribution cust. 24,100

Geographical presence today

Nordic countriesGeneration 48.1 TWhElectricity sales 54.9 TWhHeat sales 18.0 TWhDistribution cust. 1.6 millionElectricity cust. 1.2 million

Nr 1

Nr 3

Heat

Electricity sales

Distribution

Power generation

Nr 1

Nr 2

Page 5: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

5

Fortum mid-sized European power generation player, Global #4 in heat

* incl. TGC-5, TGC-6, TGC-7, TGC-9, *** incl. TGC-12, TGC-13Source Company information, Fortum analyses, 2008 figures pro forma, ** 2007

Largest producers in Europe and Russia, 2008 TWh

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Iberdrola

RusHydroFortum

EnBW

Vattenfall+Nuon

CEZ

GDF SUEZ

RWE+Essent

DEI

Edison

PGE

Scottish&Southern

Statkraft

Rosenergoatom

Irkutskenergo

WGC-1

Gazprom

IES

NNEGC Energoat.

EnelE.ONEDF

Power generation

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

*) IES

Minsk EnergoKievenergo

Irkutskenergo

Bashkirenergo

RAO ES East

Onexim

TGC-11

TGC-2

Fortum

DongKDHC, Korea

Beijing DHTGC-14

Lukoil

DalkiaGazprom

Tatenergo

ELCEN, Rom.

**)

Vattenfall

SUEK***)

Heat productionLargest global producers, 2008 TWh

Page 6: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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A market driven production company – flexible and environmentally friendly portfolio

Nuclear 33%

Hydropower 34%

Peat1%

Coal 3%Biomass 2%

65.3 TWh in 2009(Power generation capacity 13 940 MW)

Fortum’s power generation

Natural gas 27%

48.8 TWh in 2009(Heat production capacity 24 330 MW)

Fortum’s heat production

Peat 2%

Waste 3%Heat pumps, electricity 7%

Oil2%

Biomass 10%

Natural gas 61%

Other 3%

Coal12%

Page 7: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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Fortum’s strategic route

Stockholm

Energi

Gullspång

Birka

Energi50% Fortum

50% Stockholm

Länsivoima→100% E.ON Finland

Separation of oil businesses

Gullspång

Skandinaviska

Elverk

Birka

Energi50% → 100%

StoraKraft

Länsivoima45% → 65%

Elnova50% → 100%

1996 20071997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2008

IVO

Neste

Østfold

Shares in Hafslund

Shares in Lenenergo

Starting TGC-1

District heat in Poland

2003 →

Divestment of Lenenergo

shares

TGC-10

Page 8: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

8

Fortum Corporation

Power sector reform in Russia

Fortum’s M&A in Russia

Page 9: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

9

South

KoreaUS

China

Japa

nRuss

iaInd

ia

Canad

a

German

y

France

Nordic UK

Brazil

0500

1,000

1,5002,000

2,500

3,0003,500

4,0004,500

TWh

Data 2008 based on gross output.Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009

Russia is the World’s 4th largest power market

Page 10: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

10

Russia is the fastest growing market area for Fortum

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2009 to 2014, and average 2013-2014 growth for period 2015-2020

RussiaPoland

Baltic

SwedenFinland

Norway

Forecast GDP in Fortum’s market areas

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

E20

10F

2011

F20

12F

2013

F20

14F

2015

F20

16F

2017

F20

18F

2019

F20

20F

SwedenNorwayFinlandBalticPolandRussia

GDP indexed: 2000=100

Pre-crisis

GDP levels

inRussia

and Norway

in 2011, Sweden

2012 and Finland 2013.

Pre-crisis

GDP levels

inRussia

and Norway

in 2011, Sweden

2012 and Finland 2013.

Page 11: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

11

"Power industry law" approved 2003Establishment of Russian power exchange (ATS) 2001Launch of the free-trade sector of the wholesale market

in European & Urals 2003in Siberia 2005

Launch of balancing power segment 2006Launch of new wholesale market model 2006Restructuring of regional "energos" (P&H companies) completeFormation of new companies completeCapacity market – transitional model 2008Long term capacity market model 2010

Competitive market of ancillary services 2010Financial derivatives market 2010Full liberalisation of the wholesale market 2011 onwards

Key steps in the reform Time

Russian power industry reform has progressed wellC

ompleted

Page 12: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

12

Russian power reform – the outcome from Fortum’s point of view

Federal grid Co>75% state

Large Hydro (Rushydro)>50% state

System operator>75% state

Nuclear100% state

Regional and local grids

>50% state

State controlling over

50% of ow

nership

6x WGC Wholesale Generating Companies, operating

nationwideCondensing, fossil fuels

14x TGCTerritorial (regional)

Generating CompaniesCondensing/CHP mainly

fossil fuels

Electricity Sales Co’sOther Co’s

TGC-10: ~95% owned by FortumTGC-1: ~26% owned by Fortum

(50% hydro)

TSO and grid companies

State controlled power generation

Privatised power generation

The privatised part of the pow

er industry

Page 13: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

13

Power market liberalisation – two markets

Capacity market Day ahead (spot) wholesale market

• Capacity market is the intended mechanism for earning a (reasonable) return on invested capital• Capacity prices are a big part of a power generator’s income

– a typical CHP plant ~35%, CCGT ~55% of revenues• In the day ahead (spot) market, the price mechanism is a day ahead hourly auction, variable costs

(fuel) a key driver• Financial market planned to start in 2010

Capacity price- Capacity auctions (first in Oct 2010)- A higher, fixed capacity price for new capacity (CSA agreements, >2007)- Lower capacity price for old capacity

Day ahead spot market price- Day ahead spot market auction- 100% liberalised from 1 Jan 2011- S/D and fuel price key drivers

Page 14: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

14

• Further liberalisation of energy market increased to 60% in January 2010

• 80% in 1 July 2010

• 100% in 1 January 2011

• The sales to households (≤15% of total) will remain regulated after 2011

Share of liberalised trade in day ahead spot market

5%10%

15%25%

30%

50%60%

80%100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan 2007

100 %

July 2007

Jan 2008

July 2008

Jan 2009

July 2009

Jan 2010

July 2010

Jan2011

Power market liberalisation – day ahead wholesale power market will be 100% liberalised in 7 months

Page 15: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

15

Day ahead wholesale market prices – increase driven by recovering demand and gas price

• Demand back to pre-crisis levels in the overall Russia, Chelyabinsk and Tyumen regions

• Regulated gas price 24% higher than the average in 2009

– 15% up from Q4/09– Planned to be increased

by 15% in 2011• Q1/2010 spark spreads

(Urals) above 2009 levels 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13

EUR/MWh

20102008 2009

Day ahead market prices for Urals (weekly average)

Page 16: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

16

Power market liberalisation – Capacity market

• Long term rules and price parameters approved• Capacity auctions for both “old” and “new” capacity• Old capacity (pre 2007) and new capacity priced differently

– Old capacity prices will be based on the auction outcomes; first auction for 2011 in October 2010

– New capacity under capacity supply agreements will receive guaranteed payments in the auctions

• The payments for new capacity are based on approved pricing formulas– Vary according to plant size, fuel, geographic location, capital costs, …– Allow the recovery of capital costs and include return on invested capital– After three years (2014), the regulator will review the earnings from the (day

ahead) electricity-only market and can revise the payments

• “Old” capacity prices will depend on auction outcomes, but likely remain relatively low

• “New” capacity prices can be 2-3 times the “old” capacity prices

Page 17: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

17

New capacity will receive clearly higher payments than the old

Estimated capacity price for new capacity*, RUB/MW/monthGas condensing (CCGT) Coal condensing

Region >250 MW 150-250 MW <150 MW >225 MW <225 MWSouth 500,000 617,000 771,000 1,048,000 1,130,000Center 524,000 647,000 810,000 1,100,000 1,187,000Urals 554,000 685,000 858,000 1,165,000 1,257,000Siberia 845,000 996,000 1,194,000 1,680,000 1,815,000

Estimated capacity price for new capacity**, EUR/MWGas condensing (CCGT) Coal condensing

Region >250 MW 150-250 MW <150 MW >225 MW <225 MWSouth 17 21 26 35 38Center 18 22 27 37 40Urals 19 23 29 39 42Siberia 28 33 40 56 61

Estimated capacity price for new capacity**, EUR/MWh with a 65% load rateGas condensing (CCGT) Coal condensing

Region >250 MW 150-250 MW <150 MW >225 MW <225 MWSouth 26 32 40 54 58Center 27 33 42 57 61Urals 29 35 44 60 65Siberia 44 51 62 87 94

Source: Market Council, Troika, Fortum*Rate of return 14%, payback period 15 years. YTM of 8.5% for local government bonds (now ~7%)** RUB/EUR at 40, a month with 31 days

Page 18: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

18

Capacity payments currently ~1/3 of total revenues for Fortum Russia

• Last twelve months, Fortum Russia’s revenues were equally split between three components

• Regulated power sales not relevant post 2010

• Higher capacity payments for new capacity; to be commissioned from Q3/2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

power sales, liberalised spot power sales regulated capacity revenues

2008 2009 2010

EUR/MWh

Achieved total power price, Russia Division*

22

25

21

18

2122

24

21

6

6

8 9 78

9

7

* Based on realised, disclosed power revenues and volumes; disclosed power and capacity prices

Page 19: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

19

Fortum Corporation

Power sector reform in Russia

Fortum’s M&A in Russia

Page 20: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

20

Fortum has long experience of successful co-operation with Soviet Union and Russia

*) Including single largest purchase agreement of uranium with TVEL

Agreement on Joint Implementation of Kyoto Protocol with TGC-1

Sale of Fortum's stakein Lenergo (Distribution)

TGC-1

Construction of hydro power plants in Kola area

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Lenenergo shareholding

Nuclear fuel import to Finland*

Automation & information system deliveries to thermal power plants

Safety improvements for nuclear power plants

Permanent presence in Moscow & St. Petersburg

Construction of Loviisa nuclear power plant

Electricity import to Finland

Construction of North-West CHP in St. Petersburg

St Petersburg Sales Co

Lenenergo split

TGC-10 acquisition

OAO Fortum (delisted)

Co-operation

Ownerships

Page 21: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

21

Ownership steps from Lenenergo to TGC-1

1995 Obtaining first shares in LenenergoObtaining additional shares through swap with E.ON1/2003Obtaining additional shares; finally owning about 31% of capital and 30% of votes2003-2005

1995 -

2005: Becoming owner in Lenenergo; integrated utility company in St. Petersburg area

10/ 2005: Spin off transmission, generation business and electricity sales from LenenergoIn addition to Lenenergo (distribution only) ownership Fortum receives stakes in • St. Petersburg Generating Company; electricity generation and heat business• St. Petersburg sale company; electricity sales business• St. Petersburg Main Power Circuit Company; electricity transmission

10/2006: Fortum purchases additional 12.5% stake in St. Petersburg generation company

11/2006: Territorial Generation Company 1 (TGC-1) merger completed• Merger of three electricity and heat companies in North Western Russia• Merger of St. Petersburg Generating Company, Kolskaya Generating Company and Karelenergogeneratsija• Fortum to own >25% stake in TGC-1

8/2007: Fortum sells Lenenergo with after tax profit of 232 M€

9/2007: Fortum participated in TGC-1 share issue; maintaining >25% stake

Fortum's current ownership from Lenenergo restructuring process• Stakes in TGC 1 and St. Petersburg Sale Company

Page 22: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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Ownership steps from TGC-10 to OAO Fortum

2/2008: Acquisition of shares in TGC-10

4/2008: Start of integration process

• As a purchase price 0.8 Billion € for 29% stake in company• Equity injection share issue 1.3 Billion € (cash stayed in the company)• Fortum's ownership to 76% in TGC-10• Estimated annual efficiency improvements of at least 30 Million €

4/2008: Mandatory offer to minority shareholders

10/2008 and 11/2008: Delisting of TGC-10 from RTS and MICEX

• Mandatory offer completed at 10/2008. Fortum's ownership 93.4%• Total investment about 2.5 Billion € of which 1.3 Billion € new issued new shares

4/2009: Rebranding TGC-10 to OAO Fortum

• Annual efficiency improvements are expected to be appr. 100 Million € by 2011

Page 23: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

23

Fortum - a major player in Russia

TGC-10

Surgut

Kurgan

Tyumen

TobolskMoscow

St. Petersburg

Chelyabinsk

NyaganKhanty-Mansisk

TGC-1

TGC-10

SurgutSurgut

KurganKurgan

TyumenTyumen

TobolskTobolskMoscow

St. Petersburg

MoscowMoscow

St. PetersburgSt. Petersburg

ChelyabinskChelyabinsk

NyaganNyaganKhanty-MansiskKhanty-Mansisk

-1

OAO Fortum (former

TGC-10)• Majority of the Russian territorial generating company

OAO Fortum in the Urals region• OAO Fortum operates in the heart of Russia’s oil and gas

producing region• OAO Fortum adds 18 TWh/a to Fortum’s power generation

and the heat sales double• Annual efficiency improvement approximately

EUR 100 million in 2011• Fortum's management model in place since September 2008

TGC-1• Slightly over 25% of territorial generating company TGC-1

operating in north-west Russia• ~6,250 MW electricity production capacity (appr. 50% hydro),

~24 TWh/a electricity, ~30 TWh/a heat

Page 24: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

24

OAO Fortum in brief

• Fortum holding now is about 95%.• OAO Fortum operates in the heart of

Russia’s oil and gas producing regions.• 8 existing power plants, district heating in 3

cities, 2 maintenance companies.• Electricity capacity now 2,800 MW, to

increase up to 5,100 MW.• Heat capacity 15,800 MW, main heat

supplier in the area.• Production in 2009 16 TWh/a electricity and

26 TWh/a heat.• Personnel is about 4,700.

Chelyabinsk CHP-3

Chelyabinsk CHP-2

Chelyabinsk CHP-1

Tyumen CHP2

Chelyabinsk GRES

Argayash CHP

Tobolsk CHP

Tyumen CHP-1

ChelyabinskTyumen

Page 25: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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Over 80% increase in power generation capacity by 2015 through the investment programme

Power generation capacity (MW)

Plant Fuel type Existing Planned Total

Tyumen CHP-2 Gas 755 450 1,205Tyumen CHP-1, Q3/2010 Gas 472 190 662Tobolsk CHP, Q3/2010 Gas 452 210 662Chelyabinsk CHP-3, Q4/2010 Gas 360 220 580Chelyabinsk CHP-2 Coal, gas 320 320Argayash CHP Coal, gas 195 195Chelyabinsk CHP-1 Coal, gas 149 149Chelyabinsk GRES Gas 82 82Nyagan GRES Gas 3x400 1,200Boilers -

Total 2,785 2,270 5,055

(CHP/Condensing)

(CHP/Condensing)(Condensing)

(Condensing)

(Condensing)2007 2015

MW

+82%+2,270 MW

2,785

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

5,055

Page 26: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

26

• Purchasing

• Portfolio Management and Trading (PMT)

• Heat regulation

• Heat - technical and business improvements

• Generation - technical improvements

• Others

Efficiency improvement programme on track in Russia: ~100 MEUR EBIT effect in 2011

• The programme started in April 2008• After two years, on track – about halfway towards the goal

Page 27: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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Improvement through all key earnings drivers targeted

Development of Heat business

Potential margin increase(power price vs. gas price)

Increased income from new volume sold

Increased income from new capacity(higher payments for new capacity)

Efficiency improvement programme

New capacity and volume through investment programme;appr. 2,270 MW new capacity

Page 28: Driving strategic value in Russia through M&A€¦ · Handelsbanken Capital Markets 4th Annual Russia Seminar Helsinki, 2 June 2010. 2 Fortum Corporation Power sector reform in Russia

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• The market driven production company – growing in Power, #4 in Heat globally

• The fundamental drivers for the European power markets still in place: the need for new capacity, market integration, CO2 mitigation

• Carbon exposure one of the lowest among European power utilities

• Significant growth in Russia through the investment and efficiency improvement programmes

• Efficiency, accountability and simplicity – new organisation with new potential

• Strong financial performance and financial headroom

Fortum Corporation – A strong platform for future