DRAFT GENERAL PLAN OF ELECTRICITY (RUKN) 2012 -

2031

MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES

DIRECTORAT GENERAL OF ELECTRICITY

Jakarta, 7 Februari 2013

PRESENTED BY: Hasril Nuzahar

Director of Electricity Program Supervision

on :

Coffee Morning Directorate General of Electricity with Stakeholders in Electricity Sector

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

Legal Basis

Law No. 30 Year 2009 on electricity:

Article 7 : RUKN is prepared based on national energy policy and set by

Government after consulting with Parliament. RUKN prepared together with

local government and further the RUKN becomes base for preparation of

General Plan for Local Government (RUKD)

Government Regulation No. 14 Year 2012 on Power Supply Business Activity :

Article 8: power supply business for public need is carried out in line with

General Plan of Electricity and Power Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), where

RUPTL prepared by power supply business stakeholders that apply for power

supply business license (applicant) must concern on General Plan of Electricity

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

Consideration of Changes of RUKN

New regulation that arranges electricity sector (Law No. 30/2009 concerning

electricity, PP. No. 14/2012 on Power Supply Business Activity, PP. No. 42/

2012 on Cross Country Power Trade, and PP No. 62/2012 on Power Supporting

Business Services ).

Progress of development achievement of 10,0000 MW Phase I. .

Progress of the implementation of 10.000 MW Phase II.

The implementation of Masterplan Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia

Economy Development (MP3EI).

Direction for Power Supply Development

Development of power plant capacity in term of :

− To Support MP3EI

− To finish the shortage of power supply

− To increase reserves by mostly using local energy source and also to limit the plan for

development of oil fuel power plant.

Development of power plant for peak load by using gas and PLTA (pump storage or

ordinary type of damp), so fuel oil power plant development is minimized

.

To support other power plants that use new renewable energy, in addition to fulfill power

need, in reducing CO2 emission level by giving interesting investment scheme and more

ocmpetitive selling price of power

Mix Primary Energy Policy for Power Generation

Primary energy source should be used optimally in line with National Energy Policy (KEN)

to guarantee sustainable power supply, and its utilization prioritized from new renewable

energy source

As for deduction of oil fuel dependency, Government guarantees coal supply for power

generation through DMO policy and supports domestic gas use for power plants.

The utilization of new energy source such as nuclear energy is last option after optimizing

the use of renewbale nergy source and other new energy source potency. .

Oil fuel 15.02%

Coal 51.08%

Gas 22.60% Geotherma

l 4.75%

Water 6.44%

others 0.12%

Oil fuel 0.8%

coal 62.8%

Gas 18.8% Geothermal

11.0%

Water 6.5%

others 0.1%

2012 2021

Rural Electricity Program Policy and Electrification

Ratio

Handling of social mission meant to hep less fortunate society group, and electrify the

whole area of Indonesia conits of underprevilaged area, remote area, and rural electricity

development .

National electrification ratio targets 80% by the end of 2014, it is expected to become

around 99% by the end of 2020.

75.30

77.65

80.00

83.18

86.37

89.56

92.76

95.98

99.20 99.26 99.33 99.40 99.47 99.54 99.61 99.69 99.76 99.84 99.92 100.00

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

%

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

start

Historical Data (Input)

Regression Analysis (Model)

stop

Electricity energy Need Prediction (Output)

Additional Power Need (MW)

Flow Chart Projection of Power Demand dan

Supply

No. Uraian 2011 - 2014 2015 - 2031

1. Economy Growth Assumption *) 6,4% - 7,0% 8,0%

2. Inflation Assumption *) 6,5% turun menjadi 3,0%

pada tahun 2025

3.

Annual Population Growth

Assumption **)

- Jawa - Bali

- Out side Jawa - Bali

- Indonesia

rata-rata 1,3 %

rata-rata 2,1 %

rata-rata 1,7 %

4.

Annual Prediction of Electricity

Energy Need growth

- Jawa - Bali

- Out side Jawa - Bali

- Indonesia

rata-rata 8,6 %

rata-rata 13,5 %

rata-rata 10,1 %

*) refers to MP3EI

**) In line with BPS Census 2010

Assumption and Projection of Draft RUKN

2012 - 2031

Projection Result of Draft RUKN 2012 - 2031

System Description Unit 2012 2021 2031

Jawa-Bali Needs TWh 130 274 621

Peak Load GW 23 46 102

Additional Power Plants

capacity GW 5 41 119

Out side of

Jawa-Bali

Needs TWh 41 115 454

Peak load GW 8 23 87

Additional Power Plant

capacity GW 4 26 118

Indonesia Needs TWh 171 389 1.075

Peak Load GW 31 69 189

Additional power plant

capacity GW 9 67 237

Projection of Jawa – Bali TWh

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 5 8 11 14 18 22 27 31 36 41 46 52 58 65 72 80 88 97 108 119

Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 15

Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 30 32 34 37 41 44 48 52 56 60 65 70 75 81 88 95 103 112 122 133

Beban Puncak (GW) 23 24 26 29 31 34 37 40 43 46 50 54 58 63 68 73 79 86 94 102

Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 130 141 153 166 181 197 214 233 253 274 295 319 345 374 405 440 478 521 568 621

0

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400

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800

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1,200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

GW

Additional power need (GW) Existing capacity (GW) On going capacity (plan) (GW) Peak Load (GW) Electricity energy need

Additional power need per year (20 years) Average 5.821 MW

Additional power need per year (10 year) Average 3.827 MW

*) Installed capacity year 2011 experience derating)

**) Acumulation

Projection Out of Jawa – Bali TWh

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 4 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 23 26 30 35 41 47 55 63 74 86 101 118

Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 12 13 14 16 18 20 23 25 29 32 36 40 46 52 59 68 78 90 104 121

Beban Puncak (GW) 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 20 23 26 29 33 37 42 48 56 64 74 87

Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 41 45 50 56 63 71 80 91 103 115 130 147 167 190 218 250 289 335 389 454

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

GW

Additional power need per year (20 years)

(20 thn) rata-rata 5.889 MW

Additional power need per year (10 thn) rata-rata 2.619 MW

*) Kapasitas terpasang tahun 2011 yang mengalami penurunan kemampuan (derating)

**) Akumulasi

*) Kapasitas terpasang tahun 2011 yang mengalami penurunan kemampuan (derating)

**) Akumulasi

Additional power need per year (20 thn) Average

11.710 MW

Additional power need per year (10 thn) Average 6.447 MW

Projection Indonesia TWh

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Kebutuhan tambahan daya (GW) **) 9 13 18 23 29 36 43 50 59 67 77 87 99 112 126 143 162 183 208 237

Kapasitas exsisting (GW) *) 32 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 26 26 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 21 20 20

Kapasitas tahun berjalan (rencana) (GW) 41 45 49 53 58 64 70 77 85 92 101 110 121 133 147 163 181 202 226 254

Beban Puncak (GW) 31 34 37 40 44 48 53 58 64 69 76 83 91 100 110 122 135 150 168 189

Kebutuhan Energi Listrik (TWh) 171 186 203 223 244 268 294 324 356 389 425 466 512 564 623 690 767 855 957 1,075

0

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400

600

800

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1,200

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ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

Compaarison of Projection Result

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

RUKN 2008-2027 140 153 166 182 198 217 237 260 285 312 342 376 413 454 499 549 605 667 736 813

Draft RUKN 2010-2029 145 157 169 183 198 215 233 253 274 298 325 353 385 419 458 500 546 597 653 716

Draft RUKN 2012-2031 171 186 203 223 244 268 294 324 356 389 425 466 512 564 623 690 767 855 957 1,075

Realisasi Konsumsi 129 134 147 158 171

0

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800

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1,200

Elec

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Ener

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(TW

h)

RUKN 2008-2027

Draft RUKN 2010-2029

Draft RUKN 2012-2031

Realisasi Konsumsi

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

TWh Growth (%) Jenis BOE Setara TWh

2012 195 6.9 Batubara 148,356.06 Juta Ton 454,696,488,294 741,756

2013 212 8.5 Gas Bumi 153.38 TSCF 27,547,048 45

2014 231 8.8 Minyak Bumi 7,732.28 Juta Barel 7,732,280,000 12,614

2015 253 9.6 Panas Bumi 29,215.00 Mwe 2,353,215,663 3,839

2016 277 9.6 Air 12,411.20 MW 333,233,273 544

2017 304 9.6 CBM 453.30 TCF 81,412,680 133

2018 333 9.7

2019 366 9.8

2020 402 9.9

2021 438 9.1

2022 479 9.3

2023 524 9.5

2024 575 9.7

2025 633 10.0

2026 698 10.3

2027 773 10.7

2028 858 11.0

2029 955 11.4

2030 1,068 11.8

2031 1,198 12.2

Total 10,769 9.9 465,224,176,958 758,930

Potensi Energi PrimerTahun

Satuan Asli

Produksi Energi Listrik

Electricity Energy Need vs Primary Energy Potency

*)

*)

*) for 20 years and after keep producing power

Year Year

*) For 20 years and after keep producing power

Electricity Energy

production

Primary Energy Potency

Primary Energy Potency

batubara-coal

Gas bumi-gas

Panas bumi-

geothermal

Air- hydro

CBM

ESDM untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat

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