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Driving deforestationThe impact of expanding palm oil demand
through biofuel policy
Dr Chris Malins
24 May, 2018
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Welcome!
With thanks to:
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Since 2000, mandates in EU and U.S. have
exceeded domestic production growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
EU vegetable oil production
EU biodiesel consumption
-2
0
2
4
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
U.S. vegetable oil production
U.S. biodiesel consumption
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ILUC from vegetable oils
0
50
100
150
200
250
Palm oil Soy oil Rapeseed oil Sunflower oil
ILU
C e
mis
sio
ns
(gC
O2e
/MJ)
MIRAGE (2011) GLOBIOM EPA CARB
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Palm biofuel
outlook to 2030Sources of potential demand growth
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Potential markets
(direct + indirect demand)Market Status Biofuel driven palm oil
demand
(million tonnes)
Current 2030 low 2030 high
Indonesia Target 30% biodiesel by 2020, history of targets being
missed
2.5 5.5 18.6
Malaysia Recent adoption of mandate, more modest aspiration
0.7 1 3.6
EU Highest current biofuel driven palm oil demand, future policy
in negotiation
4.1 1.2 7.3
U.S. Palm oil largely excluded from RFS, but canbe
grandfathered
2 1.3 5.7
China No significant use, but reports claim interest in palm oil
for B5 by 2030
0 0 9
Aviation Industry goals would require massive expansion of
biofuel use, potentially HEFA
0.1 0.1 18.6
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Palm oil biofuel demand scenarios for
2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Low Medium High
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
Aviation
China
U.S.
Norway
EU
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
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Biofuels and palm oil demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
to
nn
es
pa
lm o
il
Projected consumption for food Current use for biofuel Low
biofuel scenario
Medium biofuel scenario High biofuel scenario
Palm oil drives deforestation
Biofuels are the largest potential source of demand growth
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Palm, land use
and deforestationAn ecological disaster in the name
of renewable energy?
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Oil palm: expansion (Indonesia and
Malaysia)
Oil palm, 1996
Peat
Oil palm, 2016
Peat
Oil palm,
1966
10
Size of UK for comparison
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Oil palm: deforestation in Indonesia
and Malaysia
Oil palm
linked
Total peat area
Lost to
biofuel by
2030?
Oil
palm
now
Deforestation by
2030 at current rate
Deforestation for palm
biofuel by 2030 in 'high'
scenario?
Total forest
lost since 1990:
11
-
Deforestation and peat loss
Based on most recent data available:
A half of new plantations associated with deforestation
A third associated with peat drainage
CO2 loss from biomass and soils, biodiversity loss and increased
fire risk
Industry also has poor record on land rights and worker’s
rights
Initiatives such as RSPO and the moratorium have not resolved
problem
‘Cherry picking’ of older plantations for certification, and
certified plantations for
export
Negligible impact on overall deforestation at 20% coverage
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RED and sustainability criteria
Renewable Energy Directive has exclusions against feedstock from
certain
areas (as of Jan 2008):
Primary forest
Peatlands
Wetlands
Continuous forest
Areas identified as highly biodiverse
However, nothing to prevent forest and peat loss next door to
the
plantation identified as meeting the sustainability criteria
Sustainability criteria unable to deal with ‘indirect’
impact
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Land use changes → CO2 emissions
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
Bili
on
to
nn
es
CO
2
High Medium Low Phase out
Estimate potential CO2 emissions from biomass and soils using
basic assumptions about fraction of additional palm from area
expansion and fraction of new area on peat/forest
Million hectares Forest loss Peat loss
2020
Low 0.8 0.5
Medium 1 0.6
High 1.9 1.2
2025
Low 0.7 0.4
Medium 1.2 0.8
High 2.9 1.9
2030
Low 0.7 0.5
Medium 1.9 1.3
High 4.5 2.9
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In conclusion
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Recommendations
The use of palm oil-based biofuel should be reduced and ideally
phased out entirely.
In Europe, the use of biodiesel other than that produced from
approved waste or by-product feedstocks should be reduced or
eliminated.
The aviation industry should focus on the development of
advanced aviation biofuels from cellulosic wastes and residues,
rather than hydrotreated fats and oils.
Sustainability initiatives for oil palm agriculture should be
supported for food and oleochemical applications, but must not be
used as an excuse for driving further demand growth from
biofuels.
The governments of Indonesia and Malaysia should be supported to
overhaul forest governance and break the link between palm oil
production and environmental destruction.
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[email protected]
[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
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Bonus slides
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Carbon footprint of palm biodiesel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
GLOBIOM IFPRI MIRAGE
(2011)
IFPRI MIRAGE
(2010)
CARB US EPA US EPA (adjusted)
Ca
rbo
n in
ten
sity
(g
CO
2e
/MJ)
ILUC emissions Cultivation, processing and distribution
Methane from effluent ponds Fossil diesel comparator
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Biodiesel expansion coincides with a
shift in vegetable oil price regime
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2016
Re
al p
ric
e,
201
0$
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Vegetable oil market connections –
MIRAGE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Palm oil biodiesel Rapeseed oil biodiesel Soy oil biodiesel
Sunflower oil biodiesel
Palm oil Rapeseed oil Soy oil Sunflower oil
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Vegetable oil market connections –
GLOBIOM
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Palm oil biodiesel Rapeseed oil biodiesel Soy oil biodiesel
Sunflower oil biodiesel
Palm oil Rapeseed oil Soy oil Sunflower oil
