Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO, Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO,

Palermo, 12 November 2004Palermo, 12 November 2004

Statistical Indicators for Broad Policy Purposes in Ireland

- Developing the Consensus between Statistics and Politics

Institutional and political environment in Ireland Institutional and political environment in Ireland supporting moves towards evidence based policy supporting moves towards evidence based policy makingmaking institutional environment for statisticsinstitutional environment for statistics Social Partnership since the mid 1980sSocial Partnership since the mid 1980s networking capability in a small countrynetworking capability in a small country

““Measuring Ireland’s Progress” (December 2003)Measuring Ireland’s Progress” (December 2003)

Presentation Describes

Role of NSIs in informing the policy debateRole of NSIs in informing the policy debate sure-footed and pro-active?sure-footed and pro-active? cautious and reactive?cautious and reactive?

Importance of statistical networking Importance of statistical networking - indicators fairly new territory for all of us- indicators fairly new territory for all of us

Risks to the statistical systemRisks to the statistical system

What does society expect of a good NSI?What does society expect of a good NSI?

Conclude With Some Discussion Items

Pre 1949Pre 1949 Statistics Division in Ministry for Industry & Statistics Division in Ministry for Industry &

CommerceCommerce Operating under the Statistics Act, 1926Operating under the Statistics Act, 1926

19491949 Establishment of CSO under the aegis of the Establishment of CSO under the aegis of the

Taoiseach (Prime Minister)Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Debate in Parliament agreed on the need for an Office Debate in Parliament agreed on the need for an Office

independent of the influence of any Ministerindependent of the influence of any Minister

Statistics Act, 1993 (operational from 1994)Statistics Act, 1993 (operational from 1994)

Institutional Environment for Statistics in Ireland

Underpinned legally the independence of the D-GUnderpinned legally the independence of the D-G professional methodology and statistical standardsprofessional methodology and statistical standards content of CSO publicationscontent of CSO publications timing and method of disseminationtiming and method of dissemination

Formally constituted National Statistics Board (NSB)Formally constituted National Statistics Board (NSB) small, advisory boardsmall, advisory board very activevery active highly influential peoplehighly influential people

Statistics Act, 1993

3 official members - an Assistant Secretary General 3 official members - an Assistant Secretary General in Department of the Taoiseach and Department of in Department of the Taoiseach and Department of Finance and the D-G of the CSO Finance and the D-G of the CSO ex-officioex-officio

3 nominees from users/providers of official statistics3 nominees from users/providers of official statistics Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU)Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) Irish Business & Employees Federation (IBEC)Irish Business & Employees Federation (IBEC) farming organisationsfarming organisations

2 others nominated by the Taoiseach - including 2 others nominated by the Taoiseach - including Professor of Economics who chairs the BoardProfessor of Economics who chairs the Board

Membership of the NSB

Unemployment 10% 1981 Unemployment 10% 1981 17% mid 1980’s17% mid 1980’s Adversarial industrial relations - huge loss of work Adversarial industrial relations - huge loss of work

days in industrial disputesdays in industrial disputes Government debt increasing rapidlyGovernment debt increasing rapidly Very high outward migrationVery high outward migration

Sense of national crisisSense of national crisis Discussions in the National Economic & Social Discussions in the National Economic & Social

Council (NESC)Council (NESC) Strategy for Development 1986-1990Strategy for Development 1986-1990 (NESC) (NESC)

Economic Challenges in Ireland in 1980’s

6 three-year Social Partnership Agreements6 three-year Social Partnership Agreements

First 3 focussed mainly on unemploymentFirst 3 focussed mainly on unemploymentnegotiated by Government, ICTU, IBEC, farmersnegotiated by Government, ICTU, IBEC, farmers

Subsequent agreements also dealt with distribution Subsequent agreements also dealt with distribution issues (taxation, welfare) and social inclusionissues (taxation, welfare) and social inclusionThese negotiations also involved groups with a focus These negotiations also involved groups with a focus on women’s issues and groups representing the on women’s issues and groups representing the disadvantaged working to counter social exclusiondisadvantaged working to counter social exclusion

Emergence of Social Partnership Model in 1987

Some NSB members are heavily involved in the Some NSB members are heavily involved in the discussions at the NESC and Social Partnership discussions at the NESC and Social Partnership

Particularly important is the role of the Taoiseach’s Particularly important is the role of the Taoiseach’s Department in chairing the discussions in both foraDepartment in chairing the discussions in both fora

Networking Links

The statistical implications of emerging policy can be The statistical implications of emerging policy can be raised both formally and informally in the NSB - and raised both formally and informally in the NSB - and

the CSO is aware of (and can influence) developmentsthe CSO is aware of (and can influence) developments

As the negotiated areas of public policy widened, participants As the negotiated areas of public policy widened, participants in the SP process began to realise they needed to track the in the SP process began to realise they needed to track the outcomes for society outcomes for society

NESC published 2 reports in 2002 on statistical indicatorsNESC published 2 reports in 2002 on statistical indicators one proposed 20 headline and 60 background indicators to one proposed 20 headline and 60 background indicators to

benchmark progress on the benchmark progress on the Programme for Prosperity and Programme for Prosperity and FairnessFairness (SP 2000-2002) (SP 2000-2002)

the other 18 headline and 12 background indicators in the the other 18 headline and 12 background indicators in the context of sustainable developmentcontext of sustainable development

Social Partnership (SP) and Statistics

Sustaining Progress 2003Sustaining Progress 2003 contained a number of contained a number of references to the CSO including a specific request to references to the CSO including a specific request to

develop a set of national progress indicatorsdevelop a set of national progress indicators

NSB had been developing its Strategy for Statistics, 2003-NSB had been developing its Strategy for Statistics, 2003-20082008

Strong role for CSO supporting evidence based policy Strong role for CSO supporting evidence based policy makingmaking

NSB concerns that a proliferation of indicators (some possibly NSB concerns that a proliferation of indicators (some possibly sub-optimal) could result in a misallocation of sub-optimal) could result in a misallocation of the statistics budget but more importantly large programme the statistics budget but more importantly large programme budgetsbudgets

2003 NSB report 2003 NSB report Developing Irish Social and Equality Developing Irish Social and Equality Statistics to meet Policy NeedsStatistics to meet Policy Needs and a Government agreement and a Government agreement that CSO should publish a national progress indicators report that CSO should publish a national progress indicators report by end-2003by end-2003

NSB and Indicators

Government and key stakeholder requests for a set of Government and key stakeholder requests for a set of national progress indicators. CSO had informed these national progress indicators. CSO had informed these requestsrequests

Manageable set of indicators with minimal text Manageable set of indicators with minimal text (volume 1) - professional, independent and balanced(volume 1) - professional, independent and balanced- public confidence- public confidence

Inform and educate users on the national and international Inform and educate users on the national and international context around the statistical indicators debate (volume 2)context around the statistical indicators debate (volume 2)

Avoid detailed advance consultations - role of first report Avoid detailed advance consultations - role of first report to be clearly flagged as a to be clearly flagged as a public consultation documentpublic consultation document

CSO Approach

National Progress Indicators: National Progress Indicators: provide a high level analysis of the economic, social and provide a high level analysis of the economic, social and environmental situation in Ireland, intended to provide a environmental situation in Ireland, intended to provide a context for broad discussions with the social partners and context for broad discussions with the social partners and society generallysociety generally

Decided to structure the selected indicators within the broad Decided to structure the selected indicators within the broad “Domains” of policy interest and by “Themes” within those “Domains” of policy interest and by “Themes” within those domainsdomains

In 12 appendices, information was provided on the domains, In 12 appendices, information was provided on the domains, themes and indicators used or proposed by themes and indicators used or proposed by 4 Irish, 5 international body and 3 other country 4 Irish, 5 international body and 3 other country (ONS, CBS Netherlands and the ABS) reports(ONS, CBS Netherlands and the ABS) reports

Conceptual Framework (Volume 2)

10 Domains were selected10 Domains were selected EconomyEconomy Innovation & TechnologyInnovation & Technology Employment & Employment &

UnemploymentUnemployment Social CohesionSocial Cohesion EducationEducation

Ultimately 108 indicators were grouped within 48 Ultimately 108 indicators were grouped within 48 themes within these domainsthemes within these domains

Domains Used

HealthHealth PopulationPopulation HousingHousing CrimeCrime EnvironmentEnvironment

The European Commission has identified criteria for The European Commission has identified criteria for assessing the quality of indicatorsassessing the quality of indicators Easy to read and understandEasy to read and understand Policy relevantPolicy relevant Mutually consistentMutually consistent Timely availabilityTimely availability Comparable across countriesComparable across countries Reliable sourcesReliable sources

Criteria for Selecting Indicators

It was decided, in so far as it was achievable, to prepare It was decided, in so far as it was achievable, to prepare the indicators in both a national and international contextthe indicators in both a national and international context National ContextNational Context

longer timespanlonger timespan regional breakdownregional breakdown

International Context: the 25 EU Member StatesInternational Context: the 25 EU Member States

Benchmarking

Within this broad frame of guidance, experienced Within this broad frame of guidance, experienced subject matter statisticians within the CSO signed subject matter statisticians within the CSO signed

off on the indicatorsoff on the indicators

Maximise buy-in across a broad sweep of societyMaximise buy-in across a broad sweep of society Launched by the Taoiseach and D-G of the CSOLaunched by the Taoiseach and D-G of the CSO Pre-Christmas social partnership function (well Pre-Christmas social partnership function (well

attended)attended) influential people from stakeholder organisationsinfluential people from stakeholder organisations senior people from policy departmentssenior people from policy departments

A typical CSO press release - balance around “good A typical CSO press release - balance around “good progress” and “poor progress” indicatorsprogress” and “poor progress” indicators

Release Strategy

Stressed that the document was intended as a kind of Stressed that the document was intended as a kind of public consultation - with feedback welcomed public consultation - with feedback welcomed

Very positive and widespread media reactionVery positive and widespread media reaction Substantial newspaper articles by economic and social Substantial newspaper articles by economic and social

commentatorscommentators Referred to in parliamentary debateReferred to in parliamentary debate Used by participants in social partnership processUsed by participants in social partnership process

Formal feedbackFormal feedback repeat on an annual basisrepeat on an annual basis similar reports for regions/countiessimilar reports for regions/counties comparable international data appreciatedcomparable international data appreciated

Reaction and Feedback

Key Outcomes for Society

Which are they?Which are they? How are they How are they

defined?defined?

MeasuredMeasured EvaluatedEvaluated BenchmarkedBenchmarked

PublishedPublished No controversyNo controversy TransparencyTransparency UN PrinciplesUN Principles

Maximum public trust and confidenceMaximum public trust and confidence

Strong NSI role “Honest Broker”Strong NSI role “Honest Broker”

No debate on unemployment rate or CPI with No debate on unemployment rate or CPI with disaggregationsdisaggregations

How aboutHow about Hospital waiting timeHospital waiting time

by medical procedureby medical procedure by region or health areaby region or health area

Literacy level with disaggregationsLiteracy level with disaggregations

NSI “Quality Mark”

What will society expect of the NSI?What will society expect of the NSI?

Prepared to be pro-active in informing key outcomes Prepared to be pro-active in informing key outcomes for societyfor society

Statistical indicators to support evidence based Statistical indicators to support evidence based policy makingpolicy making

UN fundamental principlesUN fundamental principles NSI “approved” NSI “approved” administrative dataadministrative data no Ministerial influence in context/timing of no Ministerial influence in context/timing of

statisticsstatistics recent example: crime statisticsrecent example: crime statistics

Challenge for NSIs

OECD etc. discussions to support these developmentsOECD etc. discussions to support these developments

Political sensitivities when statistical indicators are Political sensitivities when statistical indicators are used as performance measures to monitor service used as performance measures to monitor service delivery efficiencydelivery efficiency

Political instincts to publish only positive indicators?Political instincts to publish only positive indicators? NSI role must not become a Comptroller and NSI role must not become a Comptroller and

Auditor General type role!Auditor General type role! Could envisage behaviours to “improve” the Could envisage behaviours to “improve” the

indicator while perhaps “disimproving” the service indicator while perhaps “disimproving” the service deliverydelivery

Risks for NSIs

Thank You