Does American Foreign Policy Resemble the Game of Risk?

Bertjan Verbeek

American Foreign Policy

Today’s programProgram

1. Play Risk2. Does Risk resemble the foreign policy of states, esp the United

States3. How does Risk resemble the ‘world views’ presented to you by

professor Bonham last Monday

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?1. What are the motivations in the game? What are the objectives?

- Power?- World domination?- Preventing the other from

securing objectives?- Survival?

1. Debate on motives of American foreign policy:

Hamiltonian?Jeffersonian?Jacksonian?Wilsonian?

Risk is definitely not Wilsonian or Jeffersonian; clearly it is Hamiltonian, and a bit Jacksonian

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?Views are held by different (groups of) policymakers in American foreign policy – what matters is which (coalition) dominates

Example: Involvement in Lybia

- Wilsonian elements?- Hamiltonian elements?- Jeffersonian elements?- Jacksonian elements?

Another contemporary Risk/Hamiltonian view

Risk problem: from Russia’s perspective

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?2. Power seems the dominating element combined with chance

- Armies- Geographical locations- Dice

2. Does it resemble power and chance in the real world?

MachtsevenwichtSources of power

‘

Hard versus Soft Power

Hard Power: the role of technology

Hard power

Hard power

Is this hard power?

Soft Power

Soft power

The Vatican – the world’s weakest state? Or...

Contemporary soft power: Celebrities?

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?3. Did you form alliances during the game?

- Did they last?- Did you trust one another?- Did you invent new rules during

the game?

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?3. How about alliances in the real world?

- Do they last?- Does one trust one’s ally?- Does international politics need

certain rules?

- Diplomacy- International Law- Intergovernmental Organizations?- Supranationalism?

USA:1798: formal alliance with France1917: WW I1941: WW II1949: NATO

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?4. Who is playing in Risk?

- 1 state- Which assumptions about its

behavior?

‘Unitary’ actor Rational behaviorOnly responding to what other states doThe state thinks the other states are the same

Does Risk resemble (US) foreign policy?4 What does the state look like in reality?

PresidentCongressDepartmentsInterest groupsPublic opinion

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/04/us/20110504-the-presidents-approval-rating-after-bin-laden.html

What motivates them?What are the consequences for foreign policy?

How does Risk relate to the world views

Realism?

Liberalism?

Constructivism?

Assignment1a From a Risk perspective, how should the USA prepare for the coming 10 years?1b From a Risk perspective, how should America’s allies (e.g. Europe, Japan, Saudi Arabia Israel) prepare for the coming 10 years?

2a From a non-Risk perspective, how should the USA prepare for the coming 10 years?2b From a non-Risk perspective, how should America’s allies (e.g. Europe, Japan, Saudi Arabia Israel) prepare for the coming 10 years?