21
DNB Group Deutsche Bank conference, June 3 rd 2015 Rune Bjerke, CEO of DNB

DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

DNB Group Deutsche Bank conference, June 3rd 2015 Rune Bjerke, CEO of DNB

Page 2: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

> 12 per cent

Min. 14% CET1 ratio*

as capital level

> 50% dividend

Once capital level is reached

Return on equity

Financial ambitions - 2016 and 2017

* Based on transitional rules 2

Page 3: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

Four most frequently

asked questions by investors

3

Page 4: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

I

Are you on track to meeting your

current and future capital

requirements?

4

Page 5: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

5 * Fully-loaded Basel III estimate ** As at 31 June 2012

Strong capital accumulation driven by gross earnings

8.6 9.2 9.3

10.6

11.9 12.7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10.6

12.1

14.2 14.6

2012** 2013 2014 2015

4.1 4.3

5.1

5.7

2012** 2013 2014 2015

CET 1 capital ratio, transitional rules

as at 31 March, per cent CET 1 capital ratio, Basel III*

as at 31 March, per cent

Leverage ratio, Basel III as at 31 March, per cent

Page 6: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

1.4

.201

4

1.7

.201

4

1.1

0.2

01

4

1.1

.2015

1.4

.2015

USD/NOK*

6 *Updated as of May 29th 2015,

Capital ratios are sensitive to currency fluctuations

Currency

effects

USD/NOK

EUR/NOK +15%

- 45 bps

Factors affecting the CET1 ratio 2016 effect, bps

+31%

USD/NOK

EUR/NOK - 15%

45 bps +

Page 7: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

7

The minimum 14% CET1 capital target remains firm - identified capital efficiency measures in the range of 80-100 bps*

Financial restructuring Realisation of capital gains

IRB approvals

(Do not apply under

transitional rules)

Capital-efficient

products Asset disposal

CET1 ratio CET1

RWA

Active portfolio

management

*up to 2016 under transitional rules

Page 8: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

8

DNB – the relative winner?

DNB risk

weights –

transitional

rules

???

Future risk

weights –

Basel 4 ? ???

Current

IRB

risk weights

Page 9: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

9

II

Will growth in quality

earnings continue?

Page 10: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

10

Continued growth in net interest income

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net interest income NOK million

Expected lending growth of 3-4

per cent

Stable development in volume-

weighted spreads

Net interest income expectations for 2015

CAGR

8.5%

Page 11: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

11 * Personal customers and SMEs, ** Large Corporates and International

Deposit repricing potential across customer segments

Total = NOK 522 billion

Deposits in retail banking* LCI** maturing volumes and spreads public clients NOK billion, bps

62%

38%

Deposits with repricing potential

Low-yielding deposits / other

Total

NOK 536 billion

May March April Average

maturity

Page 12: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

12

Sound growth in other quality earnings

Corporate finance Revenues in NOK million

168

316

Expect underlying growth of 5% in net commissions and fees

35 46

10

27

2012 2013 2014 Q115

CAGR

55%

20

36

2012 2013 2014 Q115

Private banking Assets under management, NOK billion

New pension products Assets under management, NOK billion

Investments Deposits

Page 13: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

13

III

Will DNB be able to compete in a

new digital banking reality?

Page 14: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

Our customers prefer digital banking

Digital 86 %

Manual 14 %

Savings agreements

Digital; 64%

Manual; 36%

Consumer loans

Digital; 50%

Manual; 50%

Car loans

Digital 11 %

Manual 89 %

Insurance

Sales digital vs. traditional Share of customer traffic

14

Text message banking:

25 %

Online banking:

30%

Branch office: 1%

Call Center: 2%

Mobile banking:

42%

Page 15: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

15

Key takeaways Number of manual transactions in branches

Modernising the way we do banking

• Fundamentally changing the way we

operate our branches:

o Eliminated manual cash handling

o Moving manual banking transactions to digital

channels

• Continued reduction in number of branches

Reduction so far:

67% Goal:

75%

Page 16: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

16

Keeping our best-in-class cost-efficiency position

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

European banks (top 50)* Nordic peer group DNB

Cost/income DNB vs peer groups Per cent

C/I ambition for 2017

~40% Combination of

top-line growth and

cost focus

* Based on total assets Source: SNL Financial

Page 17: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

17

IV

Lower oil price

- Is there any sign of secondary effects for

Norway and DNB ?

Page 18: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

18 Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets forecasts

3.5 %

4.1 % 4.4 % 4.5 % 4.4 %

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e

Mainland GDP growth Unemployment rate

GDP growth and unemployment Year on year, per cent

Economic growth in Norway is slowing down - but the landing is soft and at a comfortable level

Page 19: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

Fiscal policy

Large public wealth gives ample leeway to

smooth business cycles

19 Source: Thomson Datastream, DNB Markets

Two powerful tools to ensure a stable macroeconomic development

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015e

Structural, non-oil deficit

4 per cent return on the fund capital

88

National budget structural, non-oil deficit 2015 prices, NOK billion

Monetary policy

Higher interest rates in Norway

than in the rest of Europe

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

ECB Sweden Norway

Central bank rates Per cent

Page 20: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement

20

The statements contained in this presentation may include forward-looking statements such as statements of future

expectations. These statements are based on the management’s current views and assumptions and involve both

known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

Although DNB believes that the expectations reflected in any such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no

assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct.

Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those set out or implied in the forward-looking

statements. Important factors that may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to: (i) general economic

conditions, (ii) performance of financial markets, including market volatility and liquidity (iii) the extent of credit

defaults, (iv) interest rate levels, (v) currency exchange rates, (vi) changes in the competitive climate, (vii) changes in

laws and regulations, (viii) changes in the policies of central banks and/ or foreign governments, or supra-national

entities.

DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

DISCLAIMER

CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

Page 21: DNB Group · PDF fileDNB Group Deutsche Bank ... asked questions by investors 3 . I Are you on track to meeting your ... DNB assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement