Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Business, Workforce
Development, and Consumer Markets October 2013 James H. Johnson,
Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise
Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill
6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of
America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The
End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandmas Well and Grandpas Too!
Slide 5
The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To
Rise...Again!
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SOUTHS SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS,
1910-2010 Years U.S. Absolute Population Change Souths Absolute
Population Change Souths Share of Change 1910-193030,974,129
8,468,30327% 1930-195028,123,138 9,339,45533%
1950-197051,886,12815,598,27930% 1970-199045,497,94722,650,56350%
1990-201060,035,66529,104,81449%
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U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region 2010
Population Absolute Population Change, 2000-2010 Percent Population
Change, 2000-2010 U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5%
Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0%
South114,555,74414,318,92414.3% West72,256,1838,774,85213.8%
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SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region
Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED
STATES26,884,972100.0 NORTHEAST1,753,978 6.0 MIDWEST2,480,998 9.0
SOUTH14,318,92453.0 WEST8,774,85232.0
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NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 NortheastMidwestSouthWest
Total-1,032-2,008+2,287+46 Black-346-71+376 +41
Hispanic-292-109+520-117 Elderly-115+42+97-27 Foreign
born-147-3+145+3 = Net Import= Net Export
Slide 10
STATE SHARE OF SOUTHS NET GROWTH, 2000-2010
Region/StateAbsolute ChangeStates Share The South14,318,924100.0%
Texas 4,293,741 30.0% Florida 2,818,932 19.7% Georgia 1,501,200
10.5% North Carolina 1,486,170 10.4% Other Southern States
4,218,881 29.4%
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Slide 12
Population Change in Florida and Northwest Florida, 2000-2010
Area2010 Population Absolute Population Change 2000-2010 Percent
Population Change 2000-2010 Florida 18,801,3102,818,93217.6% Gulf
Power Service Area 978,765 94,65510.7% Florida Great Northwest
Region 1,366,092 143,60011.7%
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GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010 The Region
DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet
2004-20074,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136,237
2007-20103,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida
DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet
2004-2007812,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817,637
2007-2010654,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001
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Balance of Population Change Equation Population Change =
In-Flows Out- Flows where In-flows = [Births + In-Migrants] &
Out-Flows =[Deaths + Out-Migrants]
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Typology of Communities Demographic ExperienceDrivers Balanced
GrowthBirths exceed deaths and in-migration exceeds out- migration.
Natural GrowthOut-migration exceeds in-migration but this
population loss is offset by an excess of births over deaths.
Migration MagnetsDeaths exceed births but population loss is
averted because in-migration exceeds out-migration. DyingDeaths
exceed births and out-migration exceeds in- migration, resulting in
population loss. Biologically DecliningIn-migration exceeds
out-migration but his net migration is not substantial enough to
offset an excess of deaths over births Emptying OutBirths exceed
deaths but out-migration exceeds in- migration, resulting in net
population loss
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Types of Communities in Florida Great Northwest Region Type of
CommunityNumber Balanced Growth 7 Natural Growth 1 Migration Magnet
1 Emptying Out 2 Dying 4 Biologically Declining 1
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Balanced Growth Counties, 2010- 2012 CountyTotal Population
Change Natural Change Net Migration Bay3,0511,2291,824 Calhoun 98 7
60 Escambia5,0961,9133,288 Okaloosa9,2612,3926,820 Santa
Rosa7,1401,3825,688 Walton2,539 2722,224 Leon8,2823,0885,196
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Natural Growth Communities, 2010- 2012 CountyTotal Population
Change Natural Change Net Migration Wakulla42 222- 179
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Migration Magnet, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change
Natural Change Net Migration Franklin137139
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Emptying Out Communities, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population
Change Natural Change Net Migration Gadsden-1,218349-1,602 Liberty-
89 15- 109
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Biologically Declining, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change
Natural Change Net Migration Washington-4-8755
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Dying Communities, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change
Natural Change Net Migration Gulf-145-81- 83 Holmes-123-73- 50
Jackson-778- 138-617 Jefferson-505-38-404
The Numbers Contd Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000
annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in
1986 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms
October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants
in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have
ranged between 7 million and 15 million Today: An estimated 11.5
million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.
U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011
Race/EthnicityForeign PopulationShare of Total (%)
Total40,381,574100.0 Hispanic18,788,300 46.5 White Alone, not
Hispanic 7,608,236 18.8 Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130,348 7.8
Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988,159 24.7 Other Alone, not Hispanic
866,531 2.1 30
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U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010
Race2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010 Percentage Change
2000 - 2010 Total 308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Non-Hispanic
258,267,94412,151,8564.9% White 196,817,5522,264,7781.2% Black
37,685,8483,738,01111.0% AI/AN 2,247,098178,2158.6% Asian Asian
14,465,1244,341,95542.9% NH/PI NH/PI 481,576128,06736.2% 2 or More
Races 2 or More Races 5,966,4811,364,33529.6% Hispanic
50,477,59415,171,77643.0%
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NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010
Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share
US27,323,63291.755.5 South14,318,92479.646.4 Texas4,293,74189.265.0
Florida2,818,93284.954.7 Georgia1,501,20681.027.9
NC1,486,17061.228.3
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MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN &
GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States36.835.438.2 White
Alone38.337.039.6 White, Non-Hispanic41.239.942.6 Black
Alone31.329.433.3 AI/AN Alone29.529.030.2 Asian Alone 33.632.634.6
NH/PI Alone 29.929.530.3 Two or More Races 19.718.920.5
Hispanic27.4 27.5 October 201333
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TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007
Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic
White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 October 201334
Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)
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RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY
Race/Ethnicity199020082011 White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0%
Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter
(2010); Tavernise (2011).
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RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY
Race/Ethnicity20052050 White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29%
Asian5%9% October 201336 Source: Pew Research Center, 2008
*projected.
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GULF POWER SERVICE AREA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE &
ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010
Percentage Change 2000 - 2010 Total 978,76594,65510.7% Non-Hispanic
930,12071,6508.3% White 739,39643,5476.3% Black 135,57914,00711.5%
AI/AN 6,916 -257-3.6% Asian Asian 20,236 5,02033.0% NH/PI NH/PI
1,185 39249.4% Some other race Some other race 1,456 19515.5% 2 or
More Races 2 or More Races 25,352 8,74652.7% Hispanic
48,64523,00589.7%
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FLORIDA GREAT NORTHWEST REGION POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE &
ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010
Percentage Change 2000 - 2010 Total 1,366,092143,60011.7%
Non-Hispanic 1,295,058110,7129.3% White 966,701 60,2346.6% Black
256,591 29,81113.1% AI/AN 8,026 -193-2.3% Asian Asian 28,664
8,71443.7% NH/PI NH/PI 1,336 42346.3% Some other race Some other
race 2,055 41024.9% 2 or More Races 2 or More Races 31,685
11,31355.5% Hispanic 71,034 32,88886.2%
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Nonwhite and Hispanic Shares of Population in Florida and the
Florida Northwest Region AreaAbsolute Population Change 2000-2010
Non-White Share Hispanic Share Florida2,818,93284.954.7 Gulf Power
Service Area 94,65554.024.3 Florida Great Northwest Region
143,60058.122.9
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Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Florida,
2007-2011 Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black
American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian &
Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native
Born Foreign Born Source: www.census.gov www.census.gov *Women 15
to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age 41.9 48.2 32.4 37.2
37.0 32.6 29.6 21.5 35.0 40.1 46.2 Fertility/1000 women* 51 44 60
49 58 109 67 60 57 48 60
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is In Marrying Out October 201341
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INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different
Race/Ethnicity October 201342
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INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October
201343
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THE SILVER TSUNAMI
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Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fertility Aging of
Boomer Cohort
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LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEARAGE 1900 47.3 1930 59.7 1960 69.7
1997 76.5 2007 77.9 2010 78.3 2030101.0
Slide 47
Centenarians in the U.S. YearNumber 1950 2,300 2010 79,000
2050601,000
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COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN 40 - 44 YEARS OLD Year Percent
Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births*
2006201.928 1976103.159 *Three or more Children
Slide 49
TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007
Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic3.0 Non-Hispanic
White1.9 Blacks2.1 Asian2.0 Native American1.9
Slide 50
THE GREYING OF AMERICA
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U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009 Age2009 Absolute
Change 2000 - 2009 Percentage Change 2000 - 2009