Name:_________________________________  

Background  1. What  is  an  infectious  disease?    How  are  they  different  from  non-­‐infectious  diseases?  2. What  are  possible  causes  of  infectious  diseases?  (Mention  at  least  2).  

   Prediction  3.  Now  it  is  your  turn  to  predict  how  an  infectious  disease  spreads  over  time.    Think  about  how  the  number  of  people  infected  will  change  over  time  as  the  disease  spreads.      

a. Draw  a  plot  that  describes  how  the  number  of  infected  people  changes  over  time  as  the  disease  spreads.    The  horizontal  axis  represents  time,  and  that  the  vertical  axis  represents  the  number  of  people  infected.  Label  axes  accordingly.  

b. Explain  your  prediction.    Why  do  you  think  that  your  prediction  is  valid?    (There  is  no  wrong  prediction,  just  make  sure  you  support  your  prediction.)      Modeling  the  Spread  of  an  Infectious  Disease    Modeling  Task  1:  Run  the  NetLogo  model  several  times,  under  the  same  initial  conditions  of  the  four  parameters.  

4. What  happens  to  the  number  of  people  infected  over  time?  5. How  does  this  compare  to  your  initial  prediction?    Go  back  to  the  Prediction  graph,  and  plot  

how   the  number   of   people   infected   changes   over   time   as   the  disease   spreads   through   the  population,  based  on  your  new  observations.  

 Modeling  Task  2:    Now  you  will  design  your  own  experiment  to  test  how  four  variables  affect  the  speed  at  which  an  infectious  disease  spreads.    You  will  be  using  NetLogo  to  model  the  spread  of  an  infectious  disease  in  a  population.  Remember  that  we  assume  that  there  is  no  recovery.  Your  task  is  to  determine  the  effects  of  the  following  variables:  

• Number  of  people:  This  will  model  the  density  of  the  population.    The  space  in  the  model  is  limited,  so  increasing  the  number  of  people  will  alter  the  density  of  the  population.  

• Chance  of  infection:    This  will  model  the  level  of  infectiousness  of  the  disease.    How  likely  is  it  that  I  will  get  infected  if  I  get  in  contact  with  an  infected  person?  

• Chase:    This  will  model  people  that  act  like  zombies,  i.e.,  that  knowingly  want  to  make  other  people  sick,  or  people  that  are  careless  with  their  behavior  when  they  are  sick.  

• Avoid:  This  will  model  people  that  practice  safe  behavior,  i.e.,  avoid  sick  people.    

6. Provide   a   description   of   your   approach   to   test   how   the   four   variables   affect   the   speed   at  which  an  infectious  disease  spreads.  

7. What  is  the  effect  of  each  variable  on  how  fast  an  infectious  disease  spreads  over  time?  Use  results   and   observations   to   support   your   claims.     (You   can   use   plots,   measurements,   or  anything  available  from  the  NetLogo  model  to  help  you  here.)  

     

Modeling  Task  3:    Complete  the  Analysis  Questions  2–5   for  Activity  #30:  It’s  catching!  from  your  class  textbook:  Science  and  Life  Issues.