Disaster Risk Management: a global challenge

Prof. Teuku Faisal Fathani, Ph.D.

Head of Master Program in Disaster Management (MMB), Graduate School UGMDirector of Center for Disaster Mitigation and Technological Innovation (GAMA-InaTEK)Adjunct Professor of the UNESCO Chair on Geoenvironmental Disaster Reduction

International Seminar on Coordination in Emergency Response Management (ISoCiERM), Sekolah Pascasarjana UGM, 15 Oktober 2018

Natural Hazards on Earth

DRM in Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs

Shift in Paradigm: Focusing on DRR

Integrated Planning in DRM

National and International Action

Outline

Volcanoes, Subduction Zone, Plate Boundaries and Ring of Fire

Source: NOAA

Natural Hazard Effect: Tsunami, Earthquake & Volcanic Eruption

Source: MünichRe (1998)

World Map of Natural Hazards

Disaster Risk Managementin UNECE Sustainable Development Goals

• The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 global targets sets out areas to advance sustainable development.

• Disaster risk reduction cuts across different aspects and sectors of development. There are 25 targets related to disaster risk reduction in 10 of the 17 SDGs, firmly establishing the role of disaster risk reduction as a core development strategy.

(UNISDR,2015)

Disaster Risk Managementin UNECE Sustainable Development Goals

• UNISDR has focused particularly on (1) reducing exposure and vulnerability of the poor to disasters (2) Promotion and integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development and investment decision-making

• Global average annual loss from disasters is estimated to increase from an annual average of USD 260 billion in 2015 to USD 414 billion by 2030.

(UNISDR, 2015)

Disaster Risk Managementin UNECE Sustainable Development Goals

The impact of economic losses varies greatly at the country level. The bulk of the absolute losses are felt in the USA, Japan and China but as a percentage of GDP losses hit hard on countries at the lower end of the Human Development Index including Mongolia, Haiti, Yemen and Honduras.

Disasters can derail hard-earned development plans and progress

(UNESCAP, 2017)

Disaster Risk Managementin UNECE Sustainable Development Goals

Disaster cycle

Emergency

response

Prevention

Mitigation

Preparation

Rehabilitation

Reconstruction

Focusing on Emergency response ?

Sutaryo and Claramita, 2007)

Focusing on Reconstruction-Recovery ?

(Setyawan, 2014)

Focus on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

“Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural

hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of

prevention.” (UNISDR)

Shift in paradigm

Reduction

Readiness Response

Recovery Reduction

Readiness Response

Recovery

Resilience

Risk Reduction is complex, difficult and it takes much longer to see results

Shift in paradigm

ResponsePenanganan

ReductionPengurangan

HazardsKerawanan

RiskResiko

Single mandatesMandat tunggal

Integrated PlanningPerencanaan terintegrasi

CentralisedSistem terpusat

Increased local government and community responsibilityMeningkatkan tanggung jawabpemerintah daerah danmasyarakat

Integrated Planning in DRR

Land Use /Spatial Planning

Infrastructure & Technological

InnovationEnvironment Social

welfare

Health

Research & Education

Natural resources

Economy & Development

DRR Policy and Regulations for each local government function

Emergency Management

Policy, Regulation & Law Enforcement

There are more than

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SITU BARU

SITU DAUN

SITU IWUL

SITU PULO

SITU PULO

SITU BAHAR

SITU BAKTI

SITU GADOG

SITU LEBAK

SITU CIHUNI

SITU CILALASITU GEDONG

SITU KEMANG

SITU RAWALO

SITU CIBUNTU

SITU CIBUNTU

SITU CIKARET

SITU CISEENG

SITU GINTUNG

SITU KANDANG

SITU MASYONO

SITU TONJONG

SITU ANONIM 1

SITU ANONIM 2

SITU BABAKAN 2

SITU JATIJAJAR

SITU RAWA BESAR

SITU PEDONGKELANSITU PONDOKBENDA

SITU RAWA KALONG

SITU GUNUNG PUTRI

SITU RAWA CIPONDOH

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Legenda : Admin Provinsi

Admin Kabupaten

Situ

Stasiun Hidrometri

SItu Gintung

Failure 2009:

a lesson learn

Before Failure

After Failure

Catchment area

and inundation

area

BabakanPamulang

Gintung

Situ Gintung dam failure

Failured on March 27, 2009, early morning

100 people died and missing

Situ Gintung dam failure: BEFORE

Situ Gintung dam failure: AFTER

National Policy on Disaster Management

DISASTER FIGURE IN INDONESIA

• Hydrometeorological hazard predominant• Total disaster occurrences in 2015: 1582• 240 loss of lives• 1.18 million displaced• 24.365 houses damaged• 484 damaged

Hizbaron (2017)

Supermarket for disasters Laboratory for disasters Knowledge center for

disaster mitigation

Earthquake &

Tsunami

Aceh 2004

To develop country’s

commitment in

disaster management

To establish a

platform in disaster

management

To ensure the

effectiveness in

disaster management

National Policy on Disaster Management

Prepared by Universitas Gadjah Mada and approved by BNPB and 37 related Ministries/Institutions/Agencies

Outline of the masterplan1. Introduction2. Landslide disaster priority for each

province3. Issues, challenges and opportunities4. Program:

- National- Province- District/City- Community

5. Action plan6. Budgeting7. Monitoring, evaluation, reporting

National Masterplan for Landslide DRR

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030)

Sendai Framework is the first major agreement of the post-2015 development agenda, with seven targets and four priorities for action.

Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk.

Priority 2: Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk.

Priority 3: Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience.

Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Plenary ISO/TC 292 Security and Resilience has encouraged

Indonesia to work on NWIP:

1. ISO General Guidelines for Natural Disaster Early Warning System”

2. ISO Flood Warning System

3. ISO Volcanic Eruption Early Warning System

4. ISO Tsunami Early Warning System

Promoting International Standards

Standards for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)organized by ISO and UNECE 24-28 September 2018 in Geneva

Objectives

Integrating technical and social networks to establish an International Standard of landslide EWS.

Increasing the community awareness and preparedness

Community empowerment in landslide vulnerable area

Users International organization

Central and local government

Private sectors, NGOs

Local community

It is difficult to relocate community living in vulnerable area

The most effective DRR effort is to improve the community’s preparedness by implementing EWS.

Background

ISO/TC 292 Security and Resilience

ISO 22327: Guideline for the implementation of

Landslide Early Warning System

7 Sub-systems of Landslide Early Warning System

Landslide EWS

Dissemination and

communication

Risk Assessment

Establishment of disaster

preparedness organization

Development of evacuation

map and route

Development of Standard Operating

Procedures

Monitoring & warning devices

Evacuation drill

Commitment in operation

and maintenance

4 Key Element for Community-based EWS (UNISDR, 2006)

How the system works

Implementation of Landslide EWS

Net TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v

=aGDilO12cyg&t=158s

R3ADY:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v

=V2_L5aGf0EY

7 EWS Banjarnegara:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v

=frlqBsKJG24&t=48s

7 EWS UGM-BNPB:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v

=dc79xowmK0c

Kompas TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v

=GpB1I8llG80

Outcome The standard strengthens the

community resilience and proved to be able to save lives

Indonesian government includes this standard as a reference for National Medium-term Development Plan (2015-2019)

Challenges and Lessons Learned

The application of ISO 22327 requires consistent commitment and support from all related stakeholders.

The level of local community awareness and preparedness is not always constant sustainability

Landslide and debris flow at Geothermal Field28 April 2016

Movement direction

2014 LiDAR: before the disaster occurrence

Cluster A

Cluster B

Logyard

Alluvian fan

Numerical Model for Mass Movement

( ) ' z

m

g h H g ht

tM TMu

0h

t

M

1 cos tanm u z sr g h s

uT

u

2 1/325(1 )

4g s s

dk e c

h

d

T u u

5/3 2/325(1 ) /

4f l s s

dk c c

h

f

T u u

s d f

T T T T

u

uTs szu hgr tancos)1( m

mg

d fT T u u

u

uTs szuc hgrH tancos)1( m

0 fd TT

Equation of continuity:

Governing equation:

1. Hyperconcentrated solid-liquid mixture flow model (Egashira et al., 1997,2001; Miyamoto, 2010; Fathani et al., 2017)

2. Voellmy-fluid friction model(Fathani et al., 2017)

3. Mohr-Coulomb model (Fathani et al., 2017)

Ts: shear stress due to static inter-granular contact

Td: shear stress due to particle-to-particle collision

Tf: shear stress by the interstitial liquid phase

Debris thickness

(m)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2.5

0

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

27.5

30.0

Cluster A

Cluster F Logyard

The simulation result of actual debris deposition

Socio-Entrepreneurial University

https://stirrrd.org/

Socio-Entrepreneurial University

District Profile

Socio-Entrepreneurial University

DRR Action Plan

Command and control define who has the authority to make decisions, and what the parameters of that

authority are.

Coordination is the bringing together of agencies and resources to ensure a unified, consistent, and effective

response.

Command (authority within an agency) is executed vertically within each agency, and includes the internal ownership, administrative responsibility, and detailed

supervision of an agency’s personnel, tasks, and resources.

Control (authority across agencies) is executed horizontally, and is the authority to direct tasks to

another agency, and to coordinate that agency’s actions so they are integrated with the wider response.

Coordination, Command, and Control in Emergency Management

Coordinated Emergency Management System

Response Level

THANK YOU

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