Directions/Trends in Fresh Market Tomatoes in N. America

John LindboSolanum Breeding Program Manager

HM-Clause; Davis, CA

N American Fresh Market Tomato SeedN America Market Size: ~57M Euro (~77M USD)

– Half: Determinant– Half: Indeterminant

Factors affecting Market Value in future:• Seed Demand:

– Overall acreage decreasing – Increased productivity trend.– Politics and Policies:

• US Govt reached deal with Mexico re tomato trade.• Agreement will raise prices at which MX tomatoes can be sold in US; Will make domestic production more

cost-competitive.• This may decrease MX acreage for export due to new anti-dumping suspension agreement.?

• Pricing:– Likely inflation-only or slight increase for new traits.

• Market Value…likely to be ~flat: – Price increases offset by sales reduction.

FM TOM Production Trends: US*• US: reduced acreage

– Both CA & FL decreased 8-10% last 3 years.

• US: Production (tons)– FL: 20% drop last 3 years.– CA: ~ flat last 3 years

• Good weather winter 2011/spring 2012• Pressure from low cost tomatoes from MX• Prices have been low.

*USDA Reports (June 2012)

Production Trends:MXTrending to more protected culture.

Protected culture in Baja and Sinaloayear round tomato productionyields and quality increasing

Trend of semi-/indeterminant varieties being replacing determinants.

Rounds being replaced by Saladette types.MX prod now about 75% saladette; 25% round

• Since 2003: US Imports of Round from MX (-43%)– Import of saladette from MX (+58%)

Production Trends: Methods• Protected culture tomatoes now dominate retail industry.• Vine-ripe taking away from mature green.

• Mature green still supported by food service/restaurants.

• Large growth in protected culture in MX– Increased yields and quality– In US Market: ~60-70% of protected culture tomatoes from MX

• Year round protected culture supply reducing short-supply/high price periods for growers.

Consumer Trends• In grocery stores: Consumers avoid store interior: Shop perimeter.

• Catch their attention with innovation, convenience & diversification of your products.Tomatoes on the vineVine ripesmall snacking tomatoesBetter quality (color & taste)

• “Locally sourced” labelling appearing in markets.

• US per capita consumption of FM Tom stable.

• Articles in popular press re: tomato taste (University studies from UC Davis, FLA, Tasti-lee story).

More tomato niche market potential? Improved taste a likely area of differentiation in future.