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DFA and Reinsurance Structuring Presented by Joseph W. Wallen, FCAS General Re Capital Consultants CAS Ratemaking Seminar March 9-10, 2000. General Reinsurance. Topics. I.How Are We Using DFA? II.Using DFA to Evaluate Reinsurance Structure III. Reinsurance Applications - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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DFA and Reinsurance Structuring
Presented by Joseph W. Wallen, FCASGeneral Re Capital Consultants
CAS Ratemaking SeminarMarch 9-10, 2000
General Reinsurance
2
Topics
I. How Are We Using DFA?
II. Using DFA to Evaluate Reinsurance Structure
III. Reinsurance Applications The Business Manager’s View The CFO’s View
IV. Conclusion
How Are We Using DFA?
4
As business consultants to our clients we use DFA to: Evaluate appropriate retentions Evaluate and choose “optimal” reinsurance structures Independent appraisal of different reinsurance proposals
As a part of the General Re team we use DFA to: Design effective reinsurance programs for reinsurance clients Help General Re model the underwriting risk it is taking
e.g., mix of business questions
How Do We Use DFA Models for Clients in the Reinsurance Context?
5
Traditionally evaluated using intuition/rules of thumb Retentions as a percent of PHS Assumptions about riskiness of certain lines/layers
DFA Can: Confirm traditional rules of thumb Add quantitative analysis to the process Expand the evaluation criteria to include other items
e.g. asset allocation issues Incorporate additional factors
Between line correlations/diversification Asset/Liability correlations
Why Use DFA to Evaluate Reinsurance Structure?
Using DFA to Evaluate Reinsurance Structure
7
Steps Involved in Evaluating Reinsurance Structures
Determine Risk/Return Metrics
Decompose AY Risk
Into Line/Layer
Generate R/I Opportunity Set and
Generate DFA Output
Evaluate DFA Output versus
Risk/Return Metrics
Additional Considerations
8
What Are Some Steps in Evaluating Reinsurance Structure?
Step 1 - Determine Management Objectives for Reinsurance Depends on who answers the question
Business Unit/Underwriting Manager Incentive compensation based Possibly based on U/W Income or Combined
Ratio Other qualitative issues
CFO Enterprise decisions Public vs. Mutual company issues More focused on balance sheet/income statement Capital adequacy
9
What Are the Steps in Evaluating Reinsurance Structure?
Step 2 - Determine Appropriate Metrics and Constraints
How do they measure risk? Uncertainty (e.g. Standard Deviation) Loss (e.g., Value at Risk or Surplus Decline) Mean Excess Loss
What return metric is used to evaluate reinsurance? Don’t pre-suppose one correct method Different business models Loss Ratios/Combined Ratios
Accident Year/Calendar Year Book Income Total Return Earnings Per Share
10
What Are the Steps in Evaluating Reinsurance Structure?
Step 3 - Decompose Accident Year results by Line/Layer
Reinsurance generally starts with impact on Accident Year Additional impact on other items
Investment Income Reserves
Examine how U/W results covary with Lines/Layers Will indicate where the u/w risk is Might lead to the relative value of reinsured lines/
layers Still need to evaluate in the context of DFA Model
11
What Are the Steps in Evaluating Reinsurance Structure?
Step 4 - Create Set of Reinsurance Choices
Need to be reasonable and defined Unlike asset allocation issues Generally looking at discrete choices
Based on examination of losses by layer in previous step
Evaluate where reinsurance dollars are best allocated
12
What Are the Steps in Evaluating Reinsurance Structure?
Step 5 - Evaluate Alternative Reinsurance Structures Using the DFA Model
Based on original risk/return metrics
Need to consider additional evaluation criteria outside the DFA Model claims underwriting financial strength production of business
The Underwriting Manager’s Perspective
14
Examples of Evaluating Reinsurance Structure
Example 1 - The Underwriting Manager’s Perspective
Senior management mandates: Target 95% Combined Ratio Maximize underwriting profit dollars Measure on an annual basis for accident year
Manager’s objectives: Grow business Maximize bonus Minimize underwriting “risk”
Probability of CR > 105%, < 5%
15
Evaluating Reinsurance Structure
Within the DFA Model
Capture information for all underwriting accounts Look at losses by potential reinsurance layer Should include correlations between lines
Decompose accident year underwriting risk by line/layer
Identify areas of greatest “risk”
Normalize for expected ceded profit
Select line/layer combinations of cessions to design program
Compare resulting program to risk/return metrics
16
Where is the underwriting risk?
Allocation of AY U/W Risk by Layer
59%14%
15%
11%
250 xs 0 250 xs 250 500 xs 500 4 xs 1
17
Where is the underwriting risk?
Allocation of GL Risk Contribution by Layer - to U/W Results
12%
4%
5%
7%
250 xs 0 250 xs 250 500 xs 500 4 xs 1
18
Where is the underwriting risk?
Layer CAL GL PPAL APD Grand Total
250 xs 0 (5,056,680) (1,451,143) (166,236) (390,639) (7,117,259)
250 xs 250 (1,259,468) (454,840) (6,391) 0 (1,720,699)
500 xs 500 (1,268,704) (579,009) 0 0 (1,847,713)
4 xs 1 (568,757) (805,518) 0 0 (1,374,275)
Total (8,153,609) (3,290,510) (172,627) (390,639) (12,059,946)
Line
Covariance of Layer Loss with U/W Profit
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Where is the underwriting risk?
Layer CAL GL PPAL APD Grand Total
250 xs 0 5,360
5,177
662
1,009
3,823250 xs 250 8,041
7,162
3,908
-
7,627
500 xs 500 7,179
7,849
-
-
7,234
4 xs 1 9,811
19,076
-
-
15,455
Line
Ratio of Covariance to Ceded Profit Dollars
20
Evaluating Reinsurance Based on Risk Metrics
Combined Ratio - Worst 25% of Outcomes
99.0%101.0%103.0%105.0%107.0%109.0%111.0%113.0%115.0%
75%
77%
79%
81%
83%
85%
87%
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%
Percentile
Com
bine
d R
atio
Gross Business 1M Retn 250k Retn 500k Retn
Combined RatioProbability
Greater Than Gross 1M Retn 500k Retn 250k Retn95.0% 54.90% 58.30% 60.20% 61.90%
100.0% 26.40% 26.70% 25.70% 21.90%105.0% 9.50% 8.40% 4.90% 3.30%110.0% 2.40% 1.40% 1.00% 0.10%
Avg U/W Profit (3,948) (4,069) (4,312) (4,468) Tradeoff (vs. Gross) (121) (364) (519)
21
Underwriting Manager’s Perspective
Based on these criteria manager may choose an across the board 500kretention Meets Combined Ratio tolerance Cedes approximately 350k annual nominal u/w profit Also need to examine on an economic basis
Will increase ceded profits
Ignores further diversification benefits on balance sheet Assets and Underwriting not perfectly correlated There may be additional natural hedges against income uncertainty For example:
Ceding a layer/line negatively correlated with assets may increase income risk
22
Optimization Results - Efficient Frontier
Can construct an “efficient frontier” of retentions by line or unit
Currently done in a brute force fashion via simulations Requires us to be restrictive in developing our opportunity set Provides a useful framework for evaluating risk/return tradeoff of
retention as it impacts the underwriting account
E f f i c i e n t F r o n t i e r
-1 , 0 0 0
- 5 0 0
0
5 0 0
1 , 0 0 0
1 , 5 0 0
2 , 0 0 0
87
,00
0
88
,00
0
89
,00
0
90
,00
0
91
,00
0
92
,00
0
S t a n d a r d D e v ia t i o n
Av
er
ag
e
Un
de
rw
riti
ng
Pr
ofi
t/L
os
s
S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n R e t a i n e d U n d e r w r i t i n g P r o f i t /L o s s
Reinsurance from the CFO’s Perspective
24
Examples of Evaluating Reinsurance Structure
Example 2 - The CFO’s Perspective
Goal for reinsurance is to: Reduce likelihood of missing EPS by > $0.50/share Minimize probability of 10% PHS Loss Maximize profit/ROE
Generally want to minimize reinsurance use Subject to earnings volatility constraints
25
Evaluating Reinsurance Structure at the Enterprise Level
Other factors beyond AY underwriting results
Asset category risk and return
Reserve runoff
Correlations between Liabilities and Assets
Similar process to the Underwriting Manager’s perspective
Consider U/W contribution to income/ROE/Capital risk
Reinsurance only affects a portion of risk components
26
Where is the return risk?
Contribution of Risk by Income Category
Underwriting - AY
Asset Returns
Reserves Other
Underwriting - AY Asset Returns Reserves Other
27
Impact of Reinsurance on EPS
EPS Protection
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Missing Earnings Target By at Least
Prob
abili
ty
Gross 42.1% 37.0% 32.2% xs 1M 42.9% 37.3% 31.5% xs 250 42.0% 35.4% 31.0% xs 500 42.9% 36.8% 30.8%
$0.50 $1.00 $1.50
Traditional Excess of Loss Reinsurance: Has minimal impact on EPS downside risk except at tails Diversification of earnings stream Leads to use of stop loss if available
28
Impact of Reinsurance on Likelihood of PHS Decline
Unlike EPS protection this metric shows real value: Choice depends on risk tolerance Places more value on Excess of Loss
Probability of PHS Declining
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Probability of PHS Declining by
Prob
abili
ty
Gross 7.9% 2.1% 0.8% xs 1M 8.3% 2.0% 0.5% xs 500 7.2% 1.8% 0.3% xs 250 6.1% 1.1% 0.1%
5% 10% 15%
Conclusion
30
DFA and Reinsurance Structure
DFA can be useful in evaluating reinsurance
Identifies areas of risk from underwriting that might benefit from reinsurance
Indicates potential value of reinsurance as it impacts: Accident Year results Balance Sheet/Earnings
A tool to evaluate potential structures
Exploring alternatives such as: Underwriting risk versus asset risk Using reinsurance to change mix of risk across balance sheet
Thank You.