Development of a National VisionAn Analytic Framework – Irish TIMES

Brian Ó Gallachóir, Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo & Paul Deane

Ireland in 2050: A Low Carbon Future – EPA/NESC

14th November 2012 Customs House Dublin14th November 2012, Customs House, Dublin

*

Irish TIMES Project

Partners

Funded by

>200 MARKAL / TIMES Users

TIMES Modelling

Cost and emissions balance

TIMES modelGDP

Coal processingility

Process energy

Heating area

P l tiRefineries

IndustryDomesticsources

avai

lab

Population

Light

Communication

Power plantsand

Commercial and tertiary sector

sour

ce a

Communication

Power

Person

Transportation

CHP plants

Households Demce

s, R

es

Person kilometers

Freight kilometers

C p a tsand district

heat networks

TransportationImports

mands

rgy

pric

kilometers

S

Gas network

Fi lP i

Ener

Service DemandsFinal energyPrimary energy

Why bother modelling?

• We can’t predict the future • Can’t small changes in inputs change the results?However ….• We have targets and goals that we need to meet• Uncertainty is not an excuse for inactionUncertainty is not an excuse for inaction…. and robust well bounded models ….

id h ti l ti• avoid chaotic solutions • can provide very useful insights regarding the future• can generate a knowledge base to underpin policy• can point to least risk choices via scenariosp• can strengthen our negotiating position

One purpose – Improved negotiation

EU Analysis 2008ySEC[2008] 85 Vol II - Page 43 Table 4 – cost optimal 10% EU-non-ETS target €40 - €50/tCO2cost optimal 10% EU-non-ETS target €40 - €50/tCO2

– non-ETS GHG reduction for Ireland of 17%

I i h TIMES S i A l i 2011

[€2000/ton CO2] Scenario 2020

Irish TIMES Scenario Analysis 2011

[€2000/ton CO2] Scenario 2020

Non-ETS emissions NETS-GHG 212.9Non ETS emissions NETS GHG 212.9

Second purpose – Inform climate policy

Scenario Descriptionenergy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reduction targets.

Second purpose – Inform climate policy

Scenario Descriptionenergy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reduction targets.

80% CO i i d ti b l 1990 l l b 2050 A i ltCO2-2050 80% CO2 emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. Agriculture emissions are implicitly assumed to meet 80% reduction also.

Second purpose – Inform climate policy

Scenario Descriptionenergy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reduction targets.

80% CO i i d ti b l 1990 l l b 2050 A i ltCO2-2050 80% CO2 emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. Agriculture emissions are implicitly assumed to meet 80% reduction also.

GHG-205095% CO2 emissions reduction target below 1990 levels (-96.6% relative to 2005). Agriculture is assumed to meet a 50% emissions reduction by 2050.y

Scenarios: REF

50

REF40

30

20

Mt C

O2eq

‐23.8% below 2005+12 2% b 1990

34 Mt

10

M +12.2% above 1990

02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

‐10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

Scenarios: CO2-2050

50

REF40

30

CO2 205020

Mt C

O2eq

CO2‐2050

10

M

02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

6 Mt

‐10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

Scenarios: GHG-2050

50

REF40

30

CO2 205020

Mt C

O2eq

CO2‐2050

10

M Agriculture GHG in 2050 = Agriculture GHG in 2020

GHG‐2050102005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

‐8 Mt

‐10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

Scenarios : GHG-2050

50

REF40

30

CO2 205020

Mt C

O2eq

≈50% expected CO2‐2050

GHG‐205010

M 50% expected reduction in 

Agriculture GHG1.5 Mt

02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

‐10

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050

EE, Fuel Switching and RE

Scenario Results: 2050 Emissions Reductions

44.745

50

33.735

40

45

14.8

25

30

Mt C

O2eq

5.8

3.610

15

20M

3

2.3

1.2

6.0

0.0

1.2

0.0

1.7

0.7

0.8

1.50

5

10

F t   n y l s 0 t   n y l s e 0

REF

Transport

Electricity

gene

ratio

n

Indu

stry

Resid

entia

Service s

CO2‐2050

Transport

Electricity

gene

ratio

n

Indu

stry

Resid

entia

Service s

Agriculture

GHG

‐2050

2005 2050

Scenario Results: Sectoral Emissions Reductions

44.745

50

33.735

40

45

14.8

25

30

Mt C

O2eq

5.8

3.610

15

20M

3

2.3

1.2

6.0

0.0

1.2

0.0

1.7

0.7

0.8

1.50

5

10

F t   n y l s 0 t   n y l s e 0

REF

Transport

Electricity

gene

ratio

n

Indu

stry

Resid

entia

Service s

CO2‐2050

Transport

Electricity

gene

ratio

n

Indu

stry

Resid

entia

Service s

Agriculture

GHG

‐2050

2005 2050

Scenario Results: 2050 Residential TFC3500

2500

3000

2000

toe

Electricity

Elec‐th

1000

1500

kt

Heat

Renewable

G

500

1000 Gas

Oil

Coal+Peat

0

2005 REF

2050

2050 REF

2050

2050 REF

2050

2050 REF

2050

2050 REF

2050

2050

2

CO2‐2

GHG

‐2

CO2‐2

GHG

‐2

CO2‐2

GHG

‐2

CO2‐2

GHG

‐2

CO2‐2

GHG

‐2

. 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050

Scenario Results: 2050 Transport2500

2000

1500

ktoe Electricity

1000

k

Biogas

Biodiesel

Natural Gas

500Diesel

Gasoline

0

REF

CO2‐80

CO2‐95 REF

CO2‐80

CO2‐95 REF

CO2‐80

CO2‐95

Private Transport

Freight Public Transport

2050

Scenario Results: 2050 Electricity Demand

4500

5000

4000

4500

3000

3500

e

Transport

2000

2500ktoe Residential

Industry

Power Sector

1000

1500 Services

Agriculture

0

500

5 F 0 5 F 0 5 F 0 5 F 0 5 F 0 5

2005 RE

CO2‐80

CO2‐9 RE

CO2‐80

CO2‐9 RE

CO2‐80

CO2‐9 RE

CO2‐80

CO2‐9 RE

CO2‐80

CO2‐9

. 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050

Scenario Results: 2050 Electricity Generation6000

4000

5000

3000

4000Other

Import/Export

Renewables

2000

ktoe

Renewables

Gas CCS

Gas

1000Oil

Coal CCS

Coal+Peat

0

2005 REF

‐2050

‐2050

REF

‐2050

‐2050

REF

‐2050

‐2050

REF

‐2050

‐2050

REF

‐2050

‐2050

‐1000

CO2‐

GHG

‐

CO2‐

GHG

‐

CO2‐

GHG

‐

CO2‐

GHG

‐

CO2‐

GHG

‐

. 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050

Scenario Results: 2050 Renewable Energy6000

CO2‐205068% RES

GHG‐205085% RES

Biomass

5000Currently

RES‐E  467 ktoe

68% RES 85% RES

BioEthanol BioEthanol

4000

oe

RES‐T    98 ktoeRES‐H  218 ktoe

Wind

Biogas BiogasBioEthanol BioEthanol

2000

3000kto

Wind Biodiesel BiodieselBiomassBiomass1000

2000

Biogas and Waste Biogas and WasteHydro HydroOcean0

RES‐E RES‐T RES‐H RES‐E RES‐T RES‐HRES E RES T RES H RES E RES T RES H

CO2‐2050 GHG‐2050

2050

The costs .. MACC..

Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2-80 33 136 99 273CO2 80 33 136 99 273CO2-85 33 131 158 523CO2 90 33 127 158 694CO2-90 33 127 158 694CO2-95 =GHG-80 65 185 173 1308

NETS-20/CO2-80 167 113 116 273

NETS 80 141 97 87 554NETS-80 141 97 87 554

The costs .. System Costs..

The costs .. System Costs / GDP

Next Steps

• Consultation with stakeholders• Update input assumptions• Improve energy efficiency options• Improve energy efficiency options• Reintegrate within European PET model • Model electrification (heating and transport) within

PLEXOS• Move to co-optimisation (energy and agriculture

together).• Feedback to economy (elastic demand and CGE)

Thank You

Energy Policy 

& 

Modelling Group

Energy Policy and Modelling Group on