Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723

Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723

Dr Maria Zachariou dodou

National Technical University of [email protected]

DOHA 6 December 2012

mailto:[email protected]

Project Target : a strategic plant for adaptation

Will climatic changes effect the Region and how?

What are the existing Policies ?

Are there any Nation or Regional adaptation plants in place?

What are the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus

What are the measures taken and what sectors will be most vulnerable?

FIRST STEP Review the observed climatic

changes and Predictions

Glacier National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge August 1941 (left) and August 2004 (right) (USGS, 2004) 1941-

observed changes to climate worldwide

Mediterranean and the Middle East

Regional Climatic models shows that Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by

Decrease in precipitation increases in the frequency and intensity of droughtsIncrease temperatureIncrease hot weather conditions Increase in sea surface temperatures

Warming Levantine Basin at average rate 0.065oC per year. Mediterranean have been rising about twice as much as those of

the global oceans)

sea surface temperature (SST) 1996-2011.

Future Climate– RR Decrease in precipitation

strongest drying is expected in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa: ‒10% to 25% in 2010-2039‒ ‒20% to 35% in 2040-2069‒ ‒30% to 50% 2070-2099. ‒

Turkey and the Caucasus may become

Future Climate– Increase temperature

JAA

The regional warming will be gradual 1-3°C in the near-future (2010-2039)

, 3-5°C in the mid-century period

3.5-7°C by the end of the century

PRESENT Hot days S-EMME, such are common occurring up to 5 months/year (Gulf region).

FUTURE TX>35oC, S-ΕΜΜΕ are expected to face severe warm conditions with 2 months additional of hot days/year

Future Climate Increase hot weather conditions

Future Climate– Increase hot weather conditions

DJ

F

JA

A

highlights the exceptional warming expected in the EMME region.

minimum average temperature will increase

minimum temperature

Decrease precipitation in Cyprus Annual average precipitation (mm) year 1901-02 till 2007-08

Decrease precipitation in Cyprus annual mean precipitation in Cyprus for the period 1905 to 2005

Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first

Water Stress Index among European countries. Cyprus ranks first

Increase temperature annual mean air temperature (oC) from 1892 till 2010 in Nicosia Pashiardis, 2011

SECOND STEP Existing national and regional

adaptation strategies

Existing national and regional adaptation strategies worldwide

58 national strategies on adaptation to climatic change (13 NAPs and more than 45 NAPAs) have been overview to identify countries that

have developed adaptation strategies and share the same challenges and characteristics with

Cyprus

17

Finland

France

Spain

Malta

Tunisia

Adaptation plans examinedFocus on Mediterranean countries

Cyprus: Similar challenges and characteristics

Mediterranean basin. Water stressrely heavily on the desalinationarid and semi-arid areas Decrease in precipitationCoastal erosion - (large coastlines) (coastal economic

development)Energy: Increase energy requirements /Malta and Cyprus

are highly energy dependent countries / oil imports Tourism: ( increase in temperature ,/heat waves. Forests: increased forest fire risks Agriculture (declined)

A Strategic Plan should be in conformity with the policies

WHAT ARE THE EXISTING POLICIES?

WHAT ARE AIMING?Within the scope of the project the worldwide and

The European policies related to climatic changes and adaptation were examined and

assessed

Policies related to climatic changes are Aiming to

Mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (primarily focused in the past) and to

adapt to the adverse impacts of climate in order to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems.

All policies outlined were examined and assessed in relation to the adaptation strategy to be developed in Cyprus

Existing policies on climate change worldwideUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC). Rio de Janeiro 1992( foresees that all contracting parties Develop appropriate and integrated plans for

adapting to the impacts of climate change Take into account f climate changes into the national

policies) Montreal ProtocolKyoto Protocol –Japan 1997 (reduce their GHG emissions)

Existing policies on climate change worldwide

Nairobi Work Programme 2006 ( to support action towards climate change adaptation )

Bali Road Map 2007.(Bali Action Plan, structured upon five pylons , (i)

shared vision, (ii) mitigation, (iii) adaptation,(iv) technology and (v) financing

Cancún agreements Mexico 2010.commitment for a maximum rise of 2oC / diffusion of

new innovative climate-friendly technologies /establishment of a “Green Climate Fund”

Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011 Extend the Kyoto Protocol /New reduction agreement

EU Legislation and policies

EU legislation on climate is rather vast and it is mainly focused on to the following areas:

Greenhouse Gas Monitoring and Reporting EU emissions trading system Effort sharing decision Carbon capture and storage Transport/Fuels Ozone layer protection Fluorinated gases

EU Legislation and policies

the European Climate Change Program (ECCP).

(2000-2004) second ECCP (2005EU Climate and Energy Package2007

Other Complementary legislation:Green and White Paper on adaptationGreen Paper “ Forest“Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine

Issues” (2009) document

Legislation and policies examined “Climate Change and Water, Coasts and Marine Issues”

(2009) document(accompanying White Paper)White Paper “Together for Health: A strategic

approach for the EU 2008-2013 (2007)Green Paper “ Forest protection and information in the

EU: preparing forests for climate change

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the

European Union” 2007 “Halting the loss of biodiversity 2010 – and beyond (2006

EU Integrated Maritime Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006 European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-2010

EU Legislation and policies examinedMarine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in Europe

(2002/413/EC)Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC Floods Directive [2007/60/EC

Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC, sets annual emission limits for 2020 to each Member

State ranging from -20% to +20% compared to the 2005 levels,/ Cyprus allocated reduction target of 5%.

-Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIV

ERABLE1.3.pdf

http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIVERABLE1.3.pdf


Assessment of impacts and vulnerability to Climate

change for the main economic sectors of Cyprus

Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacityImpacts = sensitivity X exposure

Sensitivity degree to which a system is affected by climate changes, exposure is the degree to which a system is exposed to climate changes and

their impacts

Principal aim was to identify the relevant

key impactsAdaptation measuresIdentify Indicators relevant to each

sector.

Although there were no sufficient data to evaluate all indicators an attempt was made to asses the vulnerability

Assessment of impacts

based on their magnitude, timing, distribution, persistence and reversibility of impacts

Indicators (Sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity) are evaluated on a 7-degree scale ranging from “none” to “very high”.

30

Water resources, Soils,Agriculture, Forests, Tourism Coastal zones, Biodiversity, Energy, Fisheries and aquaculture, Public Health, Infrastructure11 sectors

Assessment of vulnerability

Main Climatic FactorsIncrease in temperatureDecrease in precipitationIncrease in frequency of extreme events

heat waves hail droughts Floods

Increases in CO 2Increase in atmospheric O3Sea level riseResult in most severe impacts in Cyprus

Vulnerability was assessed for the following impacts

WATER RESOURCES Water availability (High) Water quality (moderate to High) Floods Increase in frequency of Droughts (High) AGRICULTURE Crop yield (Moderate High) Soil fertility Pests and diseases (not evaluated) Damages to crops from extreme weather events

(Moderate) Livestock productivity (not evaluated) Costs for livestock catering (not evaluated)

Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories

TOURISM Warmer summers (moderate) Warmer winters Heat waves Water availability (Moderate Storms, waves and floods Biodiversity attractions Coastal erosion FORESTS

Dieback of tree species, insect attacks and diseases (High) Fires (Moderate)

Floods, wind throws and storm damages Forest growth (not evaluated)

Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categoriesSOILS

Soil erosion (by wing and/or rain water) (Moderate Landslides Contamination (heavy metals, nitrates, phosphates, al

saturation) Soil Stalinization - sodification Desertification (High)

FISHERIES Quantity and diversity of fish stocks (not evaluated) Fish stock physical environment (not evaluated) Cost implications for fishermen (not evaluated)

INFRASTRUCURE Infrastructure damage due to floods (Urban Sea Floods) Infrastructure damage due to landslides (not evaluated)

Vulnerability was assessed for the following impactsBOIDIVERSITY

Distribution of plant species in terrestrial ecosystem (M)Distribution of animal species in terrestrial ecosystem (M)

Marine biodiversity (not evaluated)COASTAL ZONES

Coastal storm flooding and inundation (not evaluated) Coastal erosion (Moderate Degradation of coastal ecosystems (not evaluated)ENERGY

Renewable energy yield Efficiency of thermal power plants; and Demand for electricity and cooling/ heating

Vulnerability was assessed for the following impact categories

PBULIC HEALTHDirect impacts: . Deaths and health problems related to heat waves and high

temperatures, (Moderate Deaths and injuries from floods/storms, Deaths and injuries from landslides and Deaths and injuries from fires. Indirect impacts: Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases, Water- borne and food-borne diseases, . Climate-related effects upon nutrition, Air pollution related diseases. http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIV

ERABLE1.2.pdf



examples

Assessment of Overall vulnerability to Climate change for the main economic sectors of Cyrus

Overall vulnerability assessment of the water resources in Cyprus to climate changes

Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of Cyprus

Overall vulnerability assessment of soil resources in Cyprus to climate changes

Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus

Overall vulnerability assessment of forests in Cyprus to climate changes

Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the forests of Cyprus


Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts

Annex I: Vulnerability scores




THANK YOU

EXAMPLE Assessment of the vulnerability

of Water Resources

Relationship between observed climate changes and IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR

Increased temperature Increased water temperatures Increase in evaporation Increased evapotranspiration

Increase in surface water temperature Increased algae growth ( eutrophication /loss of fish) Prolonged lake stratification / depletion of oxygenSalinisation of water resources

Relationship between observed climatic changes andIMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR

Decreased precipitation, including increased droughts Decrease in runoff Reduction Water availabilityLower replenishments rates (lower groundwater

levels) More widespread water stress Increased water pollution and deterioration of

water qualityDecreased rates of groundwater recharge Stalinization of coastal aquifers

Relationship between observed climate changes and IMPACTS ON THE WATER SECTOR

Increase in heavy precipitation events Flooding

Adverse effects in quality of surface water and groundwater

Contamination of water supply Lower replenishment rates in the

aquifers of the mountain areas due to steep slopes

Sea level rise Stalinization of coastal aquifers) Flooding of infrastructure

MEASURES (ADAPTIVE CAPACITY) _WATER RESOURCES

Cyprus although have not developed a Strategic plan for adaptation ,the fact that is experiencing a water shortage for the last 40 years, obliged it to implement policies and measures to alleviate the problem

Measures to increase water availability Measures for the diversification of water resources

utilizationMeasures to decrease water demand Measures for the protection of water quality Measures for the protection from floods Measures for the protection from droughts

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MEASURES _WATER RESOURCESIncrease the Supply of Water Resources

Construction of dams – dam capacity increased from 6 MCM in 1960 to 307 MCM today (No dams 107)Installation of conveyance system to transport

water to poorer water resources areasGround water exploration – drilling of

boreholes for domestic and irrigation usesConstruction of Recharge worksUse of non-conventional water resources

(desalination, recycling water)Secure a safe yield from the storage reservoirs,

taking into account consecutive years of droughts

57Integrated Water Management- COST 19Coimbra Sept 2007

Reduce and Regulate Demands• efficient conveyance and distribution

systems (leakage detection, minimize losses, tele-monitoring, telecontrol)

• Metering of water services• improved on farm irrigation systems (drop

irrigation)• water saving devices• Quotas (Restriction of the amount of irrigation water)• Limited duration of water flow to the users• Increase water charges (rising tarrifs) (to recover

cost of WS but not the cost of irrigation water) (charge over use)

• Establish subsidies (BH, grey water use)Undertake campaigns for water conservation

58

Measures to Implement a sustainable water use: Re-assessment of the water resources, quantity) Re-evaluation Water Demand Water resources allocation Redistribution of water resources

Measures against droughts (additional) Raising awareness for sustainable water use, Notification of users for consumption reduction, Increase in desalinated water production, Intensive controls of abstractions and leakages, Limits to the abstractions from dams, Releases from dams only for river ecosystem protection (not for

irrigation)

Vulnerability = Impacts – Adaptive capacity Impacts= sensitivity X exposure INDICATORS





More examples

Assessment of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to Climate change for the main economic sectors of Cyrus


Overall vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector in Cyprus to climate changes


Overall vulnerability assessment of biodiversity in Cyprus to climate changes

Vulnerability of Sectors for main Impacts






Indicators used for the vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on the soil resources of Cyprus

Overall vulnerability assessment of the agricultural sector in Cyprus to climate changes




Overall vulnerability assessment of biodiversity in Cyprus to climate changes

Overall vulnerability assessment of the coastal zones of Cyprus to climate changes

Overall vulnerability assessment of the energy sector in Cyprus to climate changes

Annex I: Vulnerability scores for all Impacts





Assessment of past responses to adapt to the adverse climate change

impacts in Cyprus

WATER RESOURCES

Cyprus although have not developed a Strategic plan for adaptation ,the fact that is experiencing a water shortage for the last 40 years, obliged it to implement policies and measures to alleviate the problem

Measures to increase water availability Measures for the diversification of water resources

utilizationMeasures to decrease water demand Measures for the protection of water quality Measures for the protection from floods Measures for the protection from droughts

AGRICULTUREMeasures to reduce risk of drought and water scarcityMeasures to reduce risk of reduced crop productivityMeasures to reduce increased agricultural pests,

diseases, weeds Measures to reduce risk of extreme weather events Measures to reduce risk for livestock .COASTAL AREAS . Measures to reduce erosionMeasures to reduce risk from coastal storm flooding

and inundationImplementation of Integrated Coastal Zone

Management Framework

ENERGY Measures for increasing energy supply Measures for reducing energy demand

FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE Measures for strengthening the capacity of fishermen Measures for the diversification of aquaculture

SOILS Measures to improve soil moisture Measures to improve soil fertility Measures to reduce coastal erosion Measures to reduce soil contamination Measures to reduce soil Stalinization

FORESTS Measures against dieback of tree species, insects

attacks and diseasesMeasures against forest firesPUBLIC HEALTHMeasures to prevent heat mortality and morbidity Measures to control vector- and rodent- borne

diseases Measures to control food – borne and water-borne

diseasesMeasures to control air-pollution related diseases INFRASTRUCTURE Measures against flood damage Measures against landslide damage

TOURISM Measures against decreased tourism during summer

months Measures against coastal erosion Measures against heat waves Measures against drought and water scarcity . Measures against deterioration of biodiversity attractions. BIODIVERSITY Measures for the conservation of biodiversity Measures for the protection of threatened species Fauna species Measures for controlling invasive alien species

GAP ANALYSES To identify additional measures




Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse impacts in Cyprus CYPADAPT

LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723

http://uest.ntua.gr/cypadapt/wp-content/uploads/DELIVERABLE2.4.rar

Development of a database consisting of adaptation measures applied worldwide



United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Rio de Janeiro 1992

Montreal ProtocolKyoto Protocol –Japan 1997 Nairobi Work Programme 200Bali Road Map 2007Cancún agreements Mexico 2010. Durban Platform UNFCCC South Africa, 2011

.(Bali Action Plan, structured

EU Legislation and policies Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection 2006 European Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-

2010

Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC - Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) in

Europe (2002/413/EC)Water framework Directive 2000/60/EC Floods Directive [2007/60/EC Effort Sharing Decision. 406/2009/EC

EU Legislation and policies examinedthe European Climate Change Program

(ECCP).(2000-2004) (elements for the implementation of

the Kyoto Protocol )and second ECCP (2005) further reduction of

greenhouse gas emissions EU Climate and Energy Package2007 ( energy

targets for 2020, the so-called "20-20-20" targets )Other Complementary legislation:Green and White Paper on adaptation( lays down

the observed and expected impacts of climate change in Europe / suggests that action should be undertaken)

Documents

Development of a national strategy for adaptation to the impacts of climatic changes in Cyprus CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723