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CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Development and Evaluation of a
Operational Fine-scale NWP Model
Wanli Wu Y. Liu, L. Pan, YW. Liu, W. Cheng, J. Knievel, J. Pace
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado, USA
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
q Motivation
q NWP Model
q Evaluation Experiments
q Summary
OUTLINE
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
v Increasing demands for fine-scale weather forecasting
v Advances in understanding of weather system & in
model development including data assimilation v Transfer Research to Operation
Motivation
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Research Applications Laboratory at NCAR has been developing an operational fine-scale NWP model:
o Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model o Capability resolving LES-scale turbulence (Moeng et
al.,2006): Smograrisky sub-grid scale (SGS) model
o Real-time data assimilation system (Liu et al.,2011)
o Ultra-high resolution landuse (NLCD 2006) and terrain (SRTM) data at ~30m
Fine-scale Numerical Weather Prediction Model
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Model Configuration
o One-way nested domains: 8.1, 2.7, 0.9, 0.3, 0.1 km
o Data Assimilation on 8.1, and 2.7 km domains
o Turbulence explicitly resolved by Smagorinsky SGS model in 0.3 and 0.1 km domains, Nonlinear Backscatter Anisotropic subgrid stress, 3D TKE K coefficients
o IC & LBC: 12-km NAM model o WSM6,RRTMG, Noah, Kain-Fritsch,YSU
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Sample results from testing experiments
1. Topographic flow
2. Wind farm simulation
3. severe weather simulation: April 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Simulated Topographic Flow @ 300m near Dugway, Utah (July 14 2010, 12UTC)
Background: Terrain Vector: 10m wind Red arrow: observed wind White contour: 2m temperature Resolved fine-scale topographic flow, vortex
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Simulated near-surface wind variation in wind farm near Colorado-Wyoming Stateline (@ 100m, Oct. 20 2009, 18UTC
OBS MODEL
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
April 25-28 2011 Southeastern U.S. Super tornado outbreak
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Simulated three episodes Tornado-like surface winds (@ 300m) 09:00UTC 27th - 00:00UTC 28th , April, 2011
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Spatial distribution of simulated tornado-like near-surface winds: 09:00UTC 27th – 00:00UTC 28th, April 2011
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Modeled 10-m winds and 5-minutes accumulated rainfall (27th April 2011 09:20UTC)
Surface Wind (dots: EF0 or greater) Precipitation (background color
Storm-Relative Helicity
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Simulated 10-m winds and vertical velocity at 700 m 27th April 2011 22: 05 UTC
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Simulated Tornado Evolution
OBS
76m/s
25 hPa
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Surface Flow Sensitivity to Model Resolution Resolution
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Surface Wind Verification (two weeks forecast mean at 300m domain)
OBS
Model
CMOS/AMS Conference May 31 2012, Montreal, Canada
Summary The NWP model with turbulence-resolving capability is able to reasonably simulate fine-scale topographic flow, intra-wind farm variability and severe mesocyclone, supercell vortex including features in tornado genesis. Further development and evaluation are in progress including LES-scale model, fine-scale data assimilation, two-way nesting, high-resolution soil type data.
