EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PREFACEACKNOWLEDGMENTTABLE OF CONTENTSLIST OF
TABLESLIST OF FIGURESCHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION1.1 Background1.2
Objectives1.3 Scope of this Report
CHAPTER 2. SCREENING PROCESS2.1 Introduction2.2 Screening
Process Framework2.2.1 Overview2.2.2 Analysis Framework2.2.3
Acceptable Safety Criterion2.2.4 Alternatives for Assigning
Priorities2.2.5 Summary
2.3 Selecting the Dams to be Reviewed2.4 Status Quo Risk
Assessment of Existing Dams2.4.1 Evaluating the Probability of Dam
Failure2.4.2 Evaluating the Frequency of Failure Due to Hydrologic
Events2.4.3 Evaluating the Frequency of Failure Due to Internal
Events2.4.4 Evaluating the Frequency of Failure Due to Seismic
Events2.4.5 Evaluating the Frequency of Failure Due to an Upstream
Dam2.4.6 Consequences of Dam Failure2.4.7 Evaluation of Risk
2.5 Technical Review2.6 Ranking Based on Status Quo Risk
Assessments2.7 Risk Mitigation2.8 Ranking Based on
Cost-Effectiveness Measures2.8.1 Benefit-Cost Evaluation2.8.2
Cost-Per-Life- Saved 2.8.3 Example Calculation
2.9 Concluding Remarks
CHAPTER 3. HYDROLOGIC RISK ANALYSIS3.1 Introduction3.2 Failure
Modes and Criteria3.3 Determination of the Frequency of Failure
Using Well-Established Procedures Employing Computer Programs3.4
Desk-top Calculator Procedure for Determining the Frequency of
Failure Due to an Inadequate Spillway3.5 Procedure for Estimating
the Time of Concentration, t(c), of a Watershed3.6 Short-Cut Method
for Routing a Flood Through a Reservoir and Finding the Frequency
of Failure3.7 Concluding Remarks
CHAPTER 4. RISK ANALYSIS FOR INTERNAL MODES OF FAILURE4.1
Introduction4.2 Simplified Probabilistic Analysis - Slope Stability
Application4.3 Bayesian Probabilistic Model4.4 Estimates of Prior
Frequencies of Failure and Likelihood Information4.5 Numerical
Results4.6 Concluding Remarks
CHAPTER 5. SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS5.1 Introduction5.2 Seismic Risk
Analysis Methodology5.3 Seismic Hazard Analysis5.3.1 Ground
Shaking5.3.2 Fault Offset
5.4 Seismic Fragility5.5 Earth and Rockfill Dams5.5.1 Seismic
Fragility For Ground Shaking5.5.2 Seismic Fragility For Fault
Offset
5.6 Masonry and Concrete Dams5.6.1 Seismic Fragility For Ground
Shaking5.6.2 Seismic Fragility For Fault Offset
5.7 Calculating the Frequency of Seismic Failure5.8 Concluding
Remarks
CHAPTER 6. IMUNDATION MAPPING AND ESTIMATION OF LOSSES6.1
Introduction6.2 NWS DAMBRK6.3 Soil Conservation Service Dam-Break
Flood Routing Procedure6.4 Alternate Short-Cut Methods for
Dam-Break Flood Routing6.5 Inundation Mapping6.6 Estimation of
Losses6.7 Concluding Remarks
CHAPTER 7. SUMMARYREFERENCESAPPENDIX A. GLOSSARY OF
TERMSAPPENDIX B. LIST OF SYMBOLS
